Transcription
As we all know, NASA's been looking for a faster way to get back to the moon. Interestingly, SpaceX claims to have a plan for that. Though, for now, it's still mostly under wraps. So, naturally, what we're going to do today is dig in and figure out what that plan might be by exploring the possible options. Let's not waste any more time and jump right in.
Recently, a NASA spokesperson said the agency has received and is evaluating plans from both SpaceX and Blue Origin for acceleration of HLS production. They added, "Following the shutdown, the agency will issue an RFI to the broader aerospace industry for their proposals. A committee of NASA's subject matter experts is being assembled to evaluate each proposal and determine the best path forward to win the second space race given the urgency of adversarial threats to peace and transparency on the moon."
As for SpaceX, the company told NASA it's proposing a simplified mission to get astronauts back to the lunar surface. This comes after criticism over delays from Shawn Duffy. In a blog post released Thursday, Elon Musk's aerospace and defense company wrote, "We've shared and are formally assessing a simplified mission architecture and concept of operations that we believe will result in a faster return to the moon while simultaneously improving crew safety."
So, first, let's take a look at what Starship is supposed to do under the current plan. That way we can see why the mission might need some simplification and what SpaceX could actually do to make it better. Under the Artemis architecture, the first step is to launch the lunar version of Starship into low Earth orbit. From there, multiple tanker Starships have to fly up and refuel it. Once that's done, the lunar Starship fires its engines again to leave Earth orbit and head toward the Earth-Moon transfer point, where the moon's gravity takes over.
Next, Starship uses its engines to enter what's called a near rectalinear halo orbit around the moon. Basically, a stable orbit where it can just hang out and wait. Meanwhile, NASA launches the SLS rocket carrying the Orion capsule with four astronauts on board. Orion travels to the moon, enters the same orbit as Starship, and the two spacecraft dock. Two astronauts then transfer over to Starship, descend to the lunar surface, do their mission, and eventually return to lunar orbit to rejoin Orion. Once everyone's back aboard Orion, it fires its engines to head home, leaving behind an empty lunar Starship still floating in that near rectalinear halo orbit.
Holy smoke, that's a lot of steps. Honestly, I'm kind of surprised it's taken this long for NASA to ask for a more simplified mission architecture. Elon Musk once said on X that Starship will end up doing the whole mission, which could mean SpaceX is considering taking on the entire lunar landing process with Starship alone. No Orion, no SLS, just Starship. But honestly, that's a tough ask. It would be quite a stretch for Starship to mature fast enough to handle the full moon mission on its own in such a short amount of time.
So, in the near term, I think the smarter move might be to bring another SpaceX vehicle into the mix. Something like Crew Dragon, for example. Of course, traveling beyond low Earth orbit would require some serious, though still doable, upgrades to Crew Dragon. Spaceflight architecture basically comes down to energy cost, or what engineers call delta-v. If we're talking about a mission architecture that doesn't rely on SLS or Orion, then we'd need a spacecraft that can do everything those vehicles currently handle.
First, it needs enough delta-v to get into lunar orbit and back out again. Then it has to survive re-entry from the moon, which is no joke. Lunar return speeds generate more than twice the energy of re-entry from low Earth orbit. So, the spacecraft's heat shield needs to be seriously robust. That likely means upgrading or even replacing Crew Dragon's current Pika X heat shield to handle those extreme conditions.
Next, there's life support. The spacecraft would have to keep astronauts alive and comfortable for the entire trip. Some reports suggest Dragon can currently support a crew for about 7 to 10 days, which might not quite cut it for a full lunar mission. For comparison, Apollo was rated for 14 days, Orion for 21, and most Apollo missions lasted between 8 and 12.5 days. So technically, Dragon could make it, but there'd be very little room for error.
To make it work, the ship's life support and consumables, things like oxygen, water, and CO2 scrubbers, would need to be expanded. That, of course, means extra weight and less available cabin space. Dragon's interior volume is about 9.3 cubic meters. Smaller than Orion's 20, but roomier than Apollo's 6.2. So it'd be tight, but still feasible for a short lunar mission.
So overall, if SpaceX can solve the delta-v challenge and boost Dragon's life support endurance, Crew Dragon could actually be a viable short-term option for getting astronauts to the moon. Here's how it could work. We launch a Crew Dragon into orbit, then either tuck it inside the lunar Starship or dock it to the front. Once Starship reaches lunar orbit, it will drop off Dragon. After the surface expedition, the crew would hop into Dragon for the trip home.
This setup has a big advantage. Dragon only needs enough delta-v to leave lunar orbit, and its life support system only has to last for the journey back to Earth. If the Super Draco abort motors could be repurposed for this, the current version of Crew Dragon might actually be capable of doing the job with minimal modifications. Of course, Starship itself would need some tweaks, too. Either to carry Dragon internally or to handle the structural stress of having it mounted on the nose during launch and flight.
Another simple approach would be to start by launching the crew aboard Crew Dragon, just like we do now. Once in low Earth orbit, the astronauts could transfer from Dragon into the human landing system version of Starship. At that point, you might as well ride Starship all the way. It's already going where you need to go. From there, Starship would head straight to the lunar surface, skipping the current Artemis setup that involves rendezvousing with a space station or docking in a near rectalinear halo orbit.
After completing the surface mission, Starship would ascend into a relatively low lunar orbit, which could actually reduce the number of in-space refueling flights needed and free up other Starships for practical missions like launching Starlink satellites or other payloads. In lunar orbit, Starship would dock with a return vehicle, a modified Crew Dragon that was launched earlier on a Falcon Heavy rocket. And since that Falcon Heavy launch would be uncrewed, it wouldn't need to be human-rated or equipped with a launch abort system. Falcon Heavy has plenty of performance to push Dragon into a trans-lunar injection trajectory. And Dragon's onboard hypergolic thrusters, like the Super Draco in its trunk, could handle the remaining maneuvers, circularizing into low lunar orbit, docking with Starship, and then performing the trans-Earth injection burn for the trip home. In this plan, life support only needs to keep two astronauts alive for a few days, well within Dragon's capabilities.
Either way, it's a straightforward, cost-effective approach that leans on hardware SpaceX already has or is close to having, while trimming a lot of the complexity from NASA's current Artemis architecture.
Now, what if Elon really wants to use Starship alone for the moon mission? No Dragon, no Orion, no SLS. Can it actually be done? Well, if the goal is to rely only on Starship, the big question is, can the lunar Starship come all the way back home? Unfortunately, there are two major obstacles. First, the lunar version of Starship doesn't have enough delta-v, the energy needed to escape lunar orbit and return to Earth. And even if it did, there's another huge problem. It doesn't have a heat shield or control fins, which means it couldn't survive re-entry through Earth's atmosphere. That's a total non-starter.
But there might be a workaround. We could send up a regular, fully shielded Starship that's been fueled enough to get into lunar orbit, pick up the astronauts, then fly them back home and land safely on Earth. That's assuming, of course, that Starship's heat shield can actually handle lunar return velocities, which are much higher than coming back from low Earth orbit. If it can, then the concept is fairly straightforward. The catch, though, is that this plan still requires a new lunar Starship for every mission. The good news is that it uses Starship pretty much as is with no radical redesigns, but it does mean astronauts would have to launch and re-enter inside Starship itself, which adds its own risks and challenges.
Looking further ahead, once Starship reaches version 4 or beyond with engines powerful enough to deliver more than three times the thrust of the old Saturn V, then a fully independent Starship moon mission could absolutely be possible. It might only take a couple of in-space refueling stops to pull it off, but that's the future. For now, it's still a bit too early for Starship to handle the entire moon trip all on its own.
So far, we've talked a lot about SpaceX and their simplified lunar mission plans. But what about Blue Origin? I did mention they've got one, too, right? Blue Origin has been developing a lunar lander for NASA and has already received about $835 million from the agency since its contract kicked off in 2023. They're currently working on the Blue Moon Mark II, a much larger lander designed to carry astronauts to the lunar surface. Realistically, though, that won't be ready until sometime in the 2030s. Like SpaceX's Starship, the Mark II will need multiple refueling launches to complete a mission. As part of this contract, Blue Origin has also been working closely with NASA on the crew cabin for the Mark II.
But before that comes online, they've got another spacecraft that's much closer to launch, the Blue Moon Mark I. This first version, the Mark I, is set for a Pathfinder mission in early 2026. And when it lands, it'll become the largest vehicle ever to touch down on the moon. However, it's not designed for humans. It's strictly a cargo lander. The big advantage is that it doesn't require any in-space refueling, which simplifies operations quite a bit. The drawback, of course, is that it can't carry astronauts, at least not yet.
To make the Mark I capable of human missions, it would need some pretty major modifications, mainly around life support and crew accommodations. That said, it could be possible. The Blue Moon Mark I is actually larger than the Apollo lunar module. So, as long as it had a proper life support system, it could theoretically handle a crewed landing just as well as Apollo did. But here's where things get tricky. Unlike Apollo, which didn't have to rendezvous in a near rectalinear halo orbit, Blue Origin's human landing system will have to, and that burns a lot of fuel and delta-v.
So, how do we make that work? Blue Origin hasn't shared exact mission details yet, but they're still architecting the plan. It's possible, similar to how SpaceX might need multiple Starships to support a lunar mission, that Blue Origin could use multiple Mark I landers. One or more to ferry crew to the lunar surface and others to help them get back up into lunar orbit to rendezvous with Orion for the trip home.
So, who will reach the moon first, SpaceX or Blue Origin? To be brutally honest, if Blue Origin can successfully adapt and human-rate their Blue Moon lander, they might technically get there first. Their partnership with NASA under the Artemis program gives them a real shot, especially if they can streamline development and testing. However, being first isn't everything. Sustainability and scalability matter far more in the long run.
SpaceX's Starship, despite facing numerous engineering and regulatory hurdles, is built for a much larger vision. Its fully reusable design, massive payload capacity, and integrated refueling system give it a logistical edge that no other spacecraft currently matches. While Blue Origin's approach is more incremental and cautious, SpaceX is pushing for a paradigm shift, turning lunar missions from rare one-off events into regular, cost-efficient operations. If NASA is truly serious about establishing a long-term lunar presence, a base, research hub, or even a stepping stone to Mars, Starship represents the most practical and powerful option. Its ability to deliver not just astronauts, but also habitats, rovers, and tons of cargo in a single trip could redefine how humanity explores and lives beyond Earth.