Transcription
It is Christmas Eve, and today we're breaking down four tips you guys need to remember for championship week. And we're going to do the matchups that matter for the three Christmas Day games.
So, what I was originally going to do today was the entire matchups that matter video, but there's so much news that still has to come out for the rest of the week that I'm going to try and make it work to drop the matchups that matter either Friday morning if I can get to it or Friday night. Just stay tuned for that uh video. That'll be all of the Saturday and Sunday games.
But today, what we're going to do is I'm going to give you a little championship week pep talk. Four tips to keep in mind, and we're going to go through those matchups that matter and uh build out a pick entry here. So, let's get it kicked off with the four tips for championship week.
Tip number one, go with your gut. You can always trust my opinion, anyone else's opinion, but make your own mistakes. If you guys adamantly disagree with something I say to you, whether it's in one of my tier list videos, in one of these videos this week, then don't listen to me. If you think that you know better, if you don't agree with what I say, implied totals, matchups, trends, patterns, usage, I'm here to give you guys information to make informed decisions. Your gut is the best guide for your fantasy team. So, use all the information in today's video, in Friday's video, in Saturday's videos, whatever videos you guys are using this week. Your gut is the best guide for your fantasy team. Use that information to make an informed decision.
Also, too, be an adult. Set your own lineup. If I tell you to start somebody and it doesn't work out, well, you ultimately were the one who put them in your lineup. Don't blame me for answering your question. You're the one who makes the final call. If you disagree with me, go with your gut there. I will give you my best answer that I possibly can.
Number two tip for championship week. Avoid start sit decisions that involve small sample size bias. Aka go with the guys who got you here, especially if they're the better decision. So, this was the Kobby Parkinson effect from last week. Everybody started Kobe Parkinson over Brock Bowers and Jake Ferguson and Tyler Warren and some of the guys that have been better all year. Dallas Goddard, even Harold Fannon in some cases, especially at quarterback at tight end, defense and kicker. If a guy has been balling out all year and has a bad matchup, say for example, Jaylen Herz, Josh Allen types this week, don't sit them for like Trevor Lawrence or Jared Goff or somebody who you think is more reliable and trustworthy because a lot of you guys said, for example, on last week's video that you didn't start like Michael Carter or Audrey Estime over Ashen Genty, and you're like, "Thank god I didn't do that." And I was saying in that video for the running back tier list that when you guys got a huge sample of of Ashen Jensy being a workhorse, especially dating back to the Raiders buy and we have one report come out and say that Estime is going to start or one report comes out and says that Carter's going to start. That is not a reliable source. So again, go with the guys that got you here. Go with the guys who have been reliable for you all season as a good tiebreaker for you. especially when you know my uh gut feeling or my take that I like to use for start sit decisions is can I sit this guy in the fantasy championship if he drops 30 or 40 points on my bench and the answer is as much as I might think Trevor Lawrence could outperform Josh Allen this week I cannot sit Josh Allen's 35 points on my bench I will be sick to my stomach if that ends up happening.
Tip number three is block your opponents where possible. So monitor your opponent's team. If you're in the championship, you only have one opponent this week. For injuries, look at their injuries. Maybe they have George KD or maybe they had Brock Powers or maybe they have a quarterback injury or a running back injury or something like that. Maybe they're waiting to see if Jordan Love plays before they can start uh Josh Jacobs or something like that. Look at their weaknesses. It's the last game of the season. So, if your opponent has George KD or Brock Bowers, for example, block the tight ends that they can pick up. Go and pick up the Jawan Johnson's, the Brettton Strangers, the the guys that are on the waiver wire that they could pick up and start against you. Same goes for defenses. Same goes for kickers. Same goes for maybe handcuffing your running backs of your opponent because um if their running back gets injured in practice this week, then you would have their handcuff and so on. So, make sure to block your opponents where possible. That is championship strategy 101. It happened to me last year in the Flock League. I lost my quarterback. Nathan blocked a bunch of my uh of my quarterback options in the toilet bowl and I ended up losing the matchup as a result of that. If you guys remember.
Tip number four, and this is just a personal preference of mine. Again, before I say anything, you guys do what you want in your fantasy leagues. This is my personal opinion. Do not split the pot. Do not split the pot. Don't be soft. Go big or go home. In my home league final, which I'm in this week, it is $2,200 to first place, $500 to second place. Third place gets 250, which was the initial buy-in. Now, I'm playing for that 2250. I am not splitting the pot down the middle. I haven't been in the title game since 2021. The last three times, the winners without me in the title game have split the pot. [ __ ] that. There are no participation trophies in fantasy football. You get something for coming in second. You get $500 in my specific league as is. So, go for gold. If you don't win, it sucks to suck. Next time, win the matchup. I have seen some people say, "Well, we're going to guarantee, for example, three buyins to each person and then we're going to play for the remaining five or six buyins or whatever." Go nuts. If that's what you want to do, go ahead. My personal opinion, if you can get if it's a winner take all final or something like that, go for the gold. Make sure you take down your opponent. Just win. Just win. That's all you got to do.
Now, getting into the Christmas games, we have three games. And happy holidays to all of you guys. Here's Josh Johnson, Max Bromer, and Chris Aluakan for three of the quarterbacks that are playing on Christmas Day. Um 1 p.m. window here. Cowboys taking on the Washington Commanders. On the road, the Cowboys are seven-point favorites. The overunder of this game is 50 and a half, which is very much the highest total of the Christmas Day game. So, if you're looking for players to start in these games, it's probably from this game. Um, the over is catching a good amount of the steam. The pace of play is very high. The DVOA advantages for each of the opposing offenses are very good. Keep in mind though, that Washington number will not be factoring in that Josh Johnson is currently slated to start the game for the Washington Commanders.
On the Cowboys side of thing, pretty cut and dry here. You're starting Dak Prescott who over anybody that's not Josh Allen, Drake May, Matthew Stafford, or Jaylen Herz, I think that's probably the right decision. You could maybe convince me on like Brock Perie or Jacobe Brassette or some of those guys as I talked about in the quarterback tier list, but Dak nonetheless elite start this week. Javvante Williams top seven matchup for him. Excellent start this week as well. I know he had a down performance last week, but this is a very good matchup against a third string quarterback. They're going to probably possess the ball for a while. CD Lamb and George Pickins, of course, you guys know to start those guys. Both of these guys have huge matchup advantages on the outside. Jake Ferguson's going to be a little bit of a challenging start for some people because he has been bad the last two games, but as I talked about in depth in the tier list video, Jake Ferguson has been good all season. And yes, he's been bad the last two games, but he's been battling through an injury. He's starting to get back a little healthy. And as long as Dak Prescott is live to throw 300 plus yards, maybe three plus touchdowns in this game. I want to throw Jake Ferguson out there. The Cowboys are implied for 28.75 points, which means Jake Ferguson could easily catch a touchdown in this one. So definitely keep that in mind.
On the commander side of things, if you need to flex a guy like Chris Rodriguez, I think you could. He's getting the majority of the touches, the more majority of the carries and the goal line and all that kind of stuff. So, if you need to start a running back for the Commanders, I don't blame you and it should be Chris Rodriguez if you do pick one. And then Terry McLaren uh is probably more of like a top 30-ish play at wide receiver. Again, it's Josh Johnson. Josh Johnson's not a good quarterback. He's like 39 years old. He hasn't played really meaningful snaps since like 2021. So, I don't really want to start Terry McLaren even though it's a good matchup for him. This is not a good situation. And I would say unless you're desperate, you probably can only flex Debo Samuel at best. If you need a defense, Dallas's defense is a good one um to use because of Josh Johnson, not because they're a good defense. And of course, the Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey is in your lineup.
I'll do a stat of the game for each team in each one of these games here. Stat of the game for the Cowboys. The last three quarterbacks to have faced the Washington Commanders all scored as top 10 options. Jackson Dart, Jaylen Herz, and JJ McCarthy. They are 32nd in passing EPA per play and they're 31st in overall EPA as a defense. They're weak against the pass. They're weak against the run. And that is why I like Jake Ferguson to go higher than 8.05 fantasy points. Again, I already talked about how live Dak Prescott is to go for 300 plus and three touchdowns through the air. I think Jake Ferguson finds the end zone in this one. So, I like playing it through his fantasy points because he could get there via just receiving yardages and catches as well.
Stat of the game for Washington. Josh Johnson's starts have come with an insanely low 2.6 yards uh average depth of target. So, he is going to be a checkdown machine. High rushing volume for the offense that Josh Johnson has started for. Chris Rodriguez faces a defense that is 31st in rushing success rate, fresh off of 60% of the team's carries and most of the goal line work. If you guys need a running back option, Chris Rodriguez is not a bad one. And I'm kind of fading the passing game as opposed to like playing this through Chris Rodriguez for the pickum. I'm just going to go lower than 44 and a half receiving yards on Debo Samuel and just assume that the run game is what they uh stick to and try and go with there.
Uh moving into the middle game of the Christmas slate here, we have the Detroit Lions taking on the Minnesota Vikings. Detroit is six point road favorites, which to me seems odd. I feel like they should be favored by at least 10 against Max Bromer. If you guys recall, Max Bromer the last time he started, the Seahawks literally shoved their meat down the Vikings throat and beat the crap out of them. So, I do think that the Detroit Lions are probably going to win this game easily and easily cover that six points if you guys want some betting tips there.
Um, in this game, Jared Goff is going to be the big question because everybody I'm I'm sure knows to start him on Russ. Brown to start Jameson Williams even though they have a very difficult matchup. You're you're putting them out there. Jir Gibbs and David Montgomery have a slightly better matchup, but still not great. And then Aaron Jones and Justin Jefferson are in play as flex consideration for the Vikings. But the big question I think for a lot of people is, do I start Jared Goff or not? And I'll get to that in the stat of the game. The Detroit defense is also in play because it's Max Bromer and last time he played the Seahawks defense I think scored like 30 plus fantasy points. So even though Detroit's defense isn't nearly as good as Seattle's, I think they are definitely in play. And of course Jake Bates the kicker is in play.
Now on Jared Goff, the stat of the game for Detroit is in their last seven games only one opponent has crossed 180 net passing yards. So net of sacks. the Cowboys in week 15 with Dak Prescott. The last opponent before the Cowboys in week 15, the Lions back in week nine, the first time that these two teams played with 240 net passing yards, Jared Goff had 284 and two touchdowns through the air. He is a risky start in week 17. I have him ranked as a top 15 quarterback and I think he was QB2 or so in my rankings um during my quarterback tier list. So, he's definitely in play and I do think because of the the time of possession with Max Bromer on the other side of the ball, they could throw for a lot of yards. that could put up a lot of points. But I am worried that this game becomes a slugfest. I am worried that the Vikings defense, who has played very, very well over the last seven games really holds Jared Goff and the Lions to a modest day and they squeak out of there with like a 17-10 win, which would obviously be terrible news if you started Jared Goff or even St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and those guys. So, um, that's the stat of the game for Detroit.
Stat of the game for Minnesota is in six quarters of play with Max Brosmer at quarterback last week against the Giants and then week I think 11 or something against the Seattle Seahawks he averages 4.7 yards per attempt and 0.85 adjusted yards per attempt which factors in how many yards he loses on turnovers. Um, Justin Jefferson is a top 30 wide receiver for me, so you can absolutely play him because he's Justin Jefferson. And Aaron Jones, because Jordan Mason is probably going to be out for this game, is definitely playable as well. But nobody else could be started in this offense. Don't start Jordan Addison. Don't start TJ Hawinson. Obviously, you're not starting Max Brosma or anything. I would probably steer clear of all Minnesota Vikings unless you have to start Justin Jefferson or Aaron Jones. Jefferson, my preference of the two. The two picks I'm rolling with in this game are Jordan Addison lower than 41 and a half receiving yards because like I said, I just don't expect them to move the ball very well, especially not um Addison specifically because Jefferson's the number one there. And then Amra St. Brown higher than 6 and a half receptions. I think it's going to be a challenging blitz heavy approach for the Vikings. And I like Amanra to just get peppered targets, a lot of checkdowns, a lot of quick throws, that kind of thing.
Moving into the final game, we have the Denver Broncos taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos are 13 and a half road favorites in this game as the current AFC's number one seed. The Denver Broncos should be well set up here because Chris Aluakin, the quarterback of South Dakota State, undrafted rookie, is um starting for the Kansas City Chiefs. And we saw what that looked like in the second half of last week's game against the Titans. The Titans end up winning that game. And the Titans fans probably not too happy about that because it ruined their draft position. This game environment is so bad. 36 and a half point overunder. The Broncos are implied for 25 of those 36 and a half points. So definitely only Denver players should be started in this game.
Bon Knicks, if you need a streaming quarterback, is viable. I have him as a top 15 quarterback this week. I'm not starting a Kansas City running back. No Isaiah Pacheco. No Kareem Hunt. No Travis Kelce. Honestly, unless you're really desperate at tight end, there are better options this week, including some of the backup tight ends like Taesm Hill, who I I can't believe I forgot to talk about in my tight end tier list. But if you need to pick up a tight end and Alvin Chimera is out again, Taesm Hill is a very solid option. Even Michael Mayer now without Brock Bowers, I would probably start over um Travis Kelce and then the litany of other options that I talked about in that video. So Travis Kelce, even though Rasheed Rice is probably not going to play, which would be the only actual startable player for Kansas City if he does play, but he's probably not going to. He's still not practicing and he's yet to clear the protocol. Kelsey would see an upgrade in theory, but no Mahomes means I'm not starting Worthy or Kelsey. Courtland Sutton is definitely within starting range, of course, even though Kansas City is a tough defense. You can definitely start him. RJ Harvey getting all the work and actually seeing an uptick in two-minute drill work, uh, third down stuff. Definitely good news for him. And then even because Pat Bryant probably isn't going to play in this game. He was carded off of last week's game. You could throw Troy Franklin out there if you were really desperate because without Pat Bryant out there, Troy Franklin has been productive, has been 80 plus% of the routes being able to make some big plays. So I do actually like him to go higher than 36 and a half receiving yards um for the pick him for this.
The stat of the game for the Broncos is that against a Chiefs team that is pass rate over expected on defense, top eight in the NFL. Argo, teams like to pass the ball against Kansas City as opposed to run the ball. The Broncos pass rate over expected coming into this game is top five in the NFL. So there should be a lot of pass attempts for Bow Knicks and the offense of the Denver Broncos. And they also like to run a lot of offensive plays. They've run the seventh most in the league as well.
Stat of the game for Kansas City is that Xavier Worthy has just one game this entire season of 10 plus half PPR points. Despite Rasheed Rice being out for this game, you cannot start him because even with Mchu for most of last week, he only had 5.1 half PPR points. Do not start Xavier Worthy. And if you don't have to, do not start Travis Kelce and do not start Isaiah Pacheco, who I think will go lower than 6.95 fantasy points. He did see a spike in usage last week, but again, I'm just not messing with a single Kansas City Chiefs player.
So, the way that I'm playing these pickum entries is that I'm doing individual ones per game, just two pick entries for like a 3.2 or 3.3x of our original cash. So, the Ferguson Samuel, the Addison, St. Brown, the Isaiah Pacheco, and Franklin. And then I'm also doing one big pickum entry flex entry. Only five of six need to hit for me to cash. But if all six do cash, then we win $394 there. If you guys want to tail that, there's a ton of uh pick them promos going on right now. Underdog Unwrapped is underway as you guys can see on the calendar there. There's promos coming out every single day. There's going to be a Jir Gibbs gimme pick on Christmas Eve that you or on Christmas Day, sorry, that you guys will be able to add into this entry leading up really till New Year's Eve. There's going to be promos going crazy. And of course, if you guys are new to Underdog and you want to get in on the action, maybe you're out of your fantasy football playoffs, out of your fantasy football championship, head on over to the link down below in the pinned comment, use the promo code FSE when you sign up, and you'll get a new customer gimme pick in your pick them lobby. And when you make your first $5 play, you also get $75 in bonus entries, and you'll also get a 50% deposit match when you make your first deposit with our promo code FSE. So, that is all linked down below in the pin comment.
Leave any questions that you have for me in the comments down below. I'll try and answer as many as I can, but again, it's Christmas Eve. I'm doing family stuff tonight. I'm going to be doing family stuff all day tomorrow. I'll try to get to as many comments as I can. One quick note as well, anybody who has submitted questions on the site, we will not be live tomorrow before the game. So, if you have questions about a Thursday player in your question on the site um tomorrow, one of us, either me or Danny will go through either tonight or tomorrow and comb through the questions and make sure we get answers to those of you guys that have Thursday ones. But generally, save your questions for Saturday afternoon. We will be live before the 4:30 Eastern kickoff of the Texans and Chargers. So, we can answer questions then. For now, save those questions if you can. But, of course, we will answer the questions for you. If you submit them to the site, they will get answered before kickoff. I just can't promise you when. So, make sure you're checking your DMs over there, and they won't be live answers or anything. It'll just be text back and forth um if you guys do need those answers. So, um yeah, that should be everything. Leave a like if you guys enjoyed. Subscribe to the channel if you're new around here. Merry Christmas to all. Happy holidays to all. Peace out and I'll talk to you soon.