Transcription
Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat.
Hello and welcome to First Post Vantage with me Coroya. Let's get started.
Japan's prime minister is in New Delhi and we've got a comprehensive roundup of everything you need to know about this visit and why the India Japan partnership matters more than ever. Stay tuned for that.
And talk about a geopolitical plot twist. The world's second largest oil exporter is now turning to India for fuel. I'm talking about Russia. I'll explain how we got here in just a bit.
And what exactly is happening with the US Iran talks? Now, it's hard to keep track when both sides appear to be negotiating over what they are willing to negotiate over, but as always, we've got you covered. And while the so-called talks continue, Iran is gearing up to receive the Sue35 fighter jets from Russia. Lest we forget that Iran has emerged from this war stronger and is no longer willing to play.
And in Europe, the heat wave has created a rather unexpected diplomatic dilemma. Europe is discovering that if it wants to negotiate with China, it might first need Chinese air conditioners to keep cooler heads prevailing.
Also on the show, an open letter to Indra Nui and a reminder that the India of 2026 is not the India she left behind in 1978. All this and more lined up. But first, the headlines.
In Syria, a bomb blast at a Damascus cafe kills five people. At least 16 others were injured in the attack. The blast took place near the capital's Palace of Justice, which is a key government building. It sparked panic in the busy area.
Clashes erupted between the police and demonstrators outside Albania's parliament. The protests are over the construction of a luxury hotel linked to Donald Trump's family. For the second time this week, crowds gathered outside parliament to confront lawmakers.
Russia launches its biggest ever attack on Ke. The three this hours long drone missile attack killed at least 21 people. Kev has urged its allies to send more air defense. The European Union's top diplomat has proposed new sanctions on Moscow.
An 11year-old boy drives his parents' truck into a Buddhist procession in Thailand. Nine monks were killed in the incident while 10 others were injured. Police say the boy took his parents' truck without permission. He lost control of the vehicle and crashed into the monks.
And an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has killed more than 400 people and is still spreading. The outbreak was declared on the 15th of May. The province at the center of the outbreak borders South Sudan and Uganda and Ebola spreads through contact with bodily fluids.
There are state visits, there are summits and Then there are meetings that tell you where the world is heading. Today India Japan summit was one of them. Indian Prime Minister hosted Japanese Prime Minister Sana Takayichi in New Delhi. Takayichi was on her first official trip to India received a ceremonial welcome at the Rashupati Bhavan. Before the two leaders sat down to deepen ties on a range of issues, a partnership that could well be on its way to becoming Asia's next great power partnership. suck.
The bonomy between the two leaders told the show. Prime Minister Modi described his Japanese counterpart as his younger sister. >> Your Excellency India Japan annual summit under the India Japan special strategic global partnership. as trusted partners that share strategic direction. Together with my bigger brother, Prime Minister Modi, I will lead the India Japan relations going forward to a new phase. I look forward to welcoming Prime Minister Modi in Japan next time.
Today the two leaders signed agreements on artificial intelligence, energy, critical minerals and economic security. Maybe agreements precision technology. But perhaps the biggest announcement today was on defense. The two leaders signed the first India Japan co-development project. It will see the two countries jointly develop the unicorn naval radio antenna system. So the ties between New Delhi and Tokyo have now gone from defense cooperation to that of defense co-development.
Defense Naval Radio Antenna Unicorn project defense technology partnership the regional peace maritime security or rulebased order. Accordingly, we agreed to deepen the strategic cooperation between Japan and India in pursuit of such shared objectives. In particular, expanding maritime security cooperation is essential for regional peace and stability. In conjunction with my visit, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Indian Navy are scheduled to conduct a joint exercise involving naval vessels. >>
Now remember, India and Japan are members of the Quad grouping alongside the United States and Australia. The two countries have also steadily expanded defense and strategic collaboration in recent years. Japan economic security shared security or energy transition shared opportunity group and just take a look at the areas where they chose to enhance cooperation today. Not tourism, not culture, not even just trade alone. The India Japan partnership of tomorrow will focus on artificial intelligence, critical minerals, energy and defense. the key building blocks of modern power. Each of these areas has faced geopolitical strains in just the past 6 months. That just tells you where this relationship is headed. That is towards reducing dependence on unpredictable powers and building more resilient supply chains. A fact Modi himself reiterated during that briefing. or economic security or energy security. Economic security semiconductor quantum or advanc supply chain resilience
The two sides also announced an India Japan bio gas initiative to develop 1,000 bio gas and organic fertilizer plants across India. Japan is also among India's largest investors backing major infrastructure projects including a high-speed rail corridor between the cities of Mumbai and Ahmedabad. The economic partnership is expanding just as rapidly. Japan announced around 120 new business agreements with India, including investments worth nearly $2 trillion yen or about 12.4 billion. A signal that Japan is doubling down on its long-term bet on India's growth story.
For this occasion, we announced approximately 120 cooperation agreements between Japanese and Indian companies, including investments totaling around 12.4 billion. Together with close coordination between the public and private sectors, we intend to shape the future of Japan. India relations.
Now, there is a reason Japan is doing this. India is no longer just a market of 1.4 billion people. It is rapidly becoming one of the world's most important manufacturing destinations, one of its fastest growing major economies, and a country that global companies cannot afford to ignore. And Japan knows this. Japanese firms have also increased investments in Indian companies, including a recent $ 1.6 billion deal for a 20% stake in Yes Bank. About 1,400 Japanese companies operate in India, nearly half of them in manufacturing. Two-way trade reached $27.5 billion in India's 202526 fiscal year, while Japanese investment total $3.2 billion between April and December 2025.
Uh we will celebrate the year 2027 as the India Japan year of shared uh horizons. Prime Minister Sanitaki has also invited Prime Minister Modi to visit Japan next year for the annual summit. >>
So if anything today's meeting wasn't just about signing agreements. It was about building the economy and the security architecture of the next decade. And of course there is the strategic dimension. India and Japan are partners in the quad which means the two countries share a vision of a free and open and stable Indo-acific. The first six months of this year has already shown that countries are no longer fighting with just their armies. They are competing with technology and supply chains, energy security and today India and Japan have just shown the world that they are investing in all of it and betting on each other's future. And in today's economy, that may be the most valuable investment of all.
Now, let's look at the world's second largest oil exporter. I'm talking about Russia. Moscow exports more than 4 million barrels of raw crude every day. These oil exports make up 20% of their economy. And despite having some of the largest oil reserves, Russia is facing a major fuel crisis thanks to Ukrainian drone strikes. I'll come to that later. First, let me tell you what Russia is doing to fix its fuel shortage. It is turning to friends like India. Yes, Moscow is now buying fuel from New Delhi. If this sounds like the ultimate plot twist in geopolitics, you are not mistaken. India is one of the biggest importers of crude. It is now exporting petrol to Russia, the biggest exporter of crude. How did we get here?
According to a Reuters report, 60,000 metric tons of petrol has been dispatched from India. The tankers are on their way to Russia and Moscow wants to replace to place, pardon me, another order for 400,000 metric tons of petrol. So why is the world's ultimate petrol state buying fuel from India? Because Russia may have abundant crude but it still needs to process it. Once this raw crude is extracted, it is sent to refineries for treatment. There the crude is distilled. It involves a heating and cooling process. In the end you get the finished products what we call petrol, diesel, jet fuel, LPG. So extracting the crude is just the first part. It has to be distilled so that the oil can be used. Till January this year, Russia could do this at home. But Ukraine has taken out Russia's oil refining capabilities. In the last three months, Ukrainian drones have destroyed 24 of 33 Russian refineries. Mo's oil processing capabilities are down by 40%. Naturally, the country is staring at a severe petrol and diesel crisis. President Vladar Putin has accepted this. Here's what he said. You are well aware that problems persist for both drivers and businesses. Cues at petrol stations unfortunately also remain is not always possible to find the required grade of fuel at present.
Russia is already rationing fuel across its 11 different time zones due to rising domestic demand. Putin has banned the export of refined crude. In the interests of domestic consumers, a temporary full ban has been introduced on exports of gasoline and jet fuel. The need to impose a full ban on exports of diesel fuel is also under consideration. >>
But the export ban is not enough. Almost every major city in Russia is witnessing long lines at the gas station. That is why Russia wants to import petrol and diesel. And India fits perfectly into this picture. India may be the third largest importer of raw crude but it is among the top refiners in the world. India imports crude for two reasons. First for domestic population. Second to meet the demands of others. For example, Europe. India's oil exports to Europe have increased by 58% in recent years. So anyone who wants petrol or diesel can buy from India. Russia is doing just that. Moscow wants to end its fuel shortage and they are looking at Indian refiners.
There are two major reasons for this. First, trust. India imports the majority of its raw crude from Russia. In June, New Delhi's Russian oil imports hit a record high. Basically, India's importing Russian crude, processing it, selling it back to Russia. So, both sides know what is on the table. Russia is happy. It is getting refined petrol and diesel from its own crude. India too is happy because New Delhi's order book is only getting thicker. So that's the first reason. The two countries trust each other. The second is friendship. After Russia launched its special operation in Ukraine, that was back in February 2022. The West was quick to turn its back on Moscow. They slapped sanctions, seized Russian assets, and stopped oil trade. India, on the other hand, welcomed Russian crude with open arms. In return, Moscow offered massive discounts. And in all of this, there was no moral lecturing or backhanded threats. Russia needed to sell oil to keep its economy afloat. India needed fuel to keep its economy growing. This is what you call a win-win situation. Today, as Russia faces a fuel crisis, New Delhi is stepping in. You may have heard of the phrase, "A friend in need is a friend indeed." If you want to see that playing out live, all you have to do is look at India and Russia.
Some countries have allies, some have strategic partners. But according to Iran, America has a pet. The pet is named Israel. These are the words of Iran's foreign minister. Abasaraki recently posted on X. He warned Israel said that the Islamic Republic will school them if they don't heed to their master which is the United States. His comments come after Israel's defense minister Israel Kad said that Iran's current supreme leader Moshtabaki is marked for death. Iran is certainly furious. So it decided to respond with this and I'm quoting here. The president of the United States is committed to musling its pets in Tel Aviv. Welcome to Animal Planet Geopolitics Edition. Because what hurts more than being called a threat, being called a pet.
This warning comes amid the backdrop of indirect talks between Washington and Thran and Doha. Both sides wrapped up another round of negotiations yesterday and reported positive progress. Even Donald Trump said talks are going very well. >> The den nuclearization of Iran is moving along well. Uh they've had very good meetings and we'll see. We hit them very hard for three nights as you know, but we're getting along very well. >>
However, neither the United States nor Iran offered any indication of lasting peace in the region. The latest negotiations were conducted indirectly. Mediators from America and Iran held separate meetings with mediators Qatar and Pakistan. The talks mainly focused on restoring maritime traffic through the straight of Hormuz and Iran's frozen assets. These are the two issues covered under the memorandum of understanding which was signed a few weeks earlier as an interim peace deal. >>
Even though talks in Doha will likely take place tomorrow, the discussions are about implementing the provisions of the memorandum of understanding including the clause related to the release of Iran's restricted assets which will be conducted with Qatari parties. After the meeting was concluded, Iran's deputy foreign minister provided some details of what was discussed. These include $6 billion of Iranian frozen assets which would now be made available so that theran could purchase goods based on the country's needs. Any agreement was also reached an agreement, pardon me, was also reached to establish a communications channel to report and record alleged violations of the memorandum. The amount mentioned here refers to part of Iranian oil revenues transferred from South Korea to restricted accounts in Qatar since 2023. According to several reports, rate of horm was also mentioned during the negotiations. The primary American concern regarding the critical waterway is the toll that Iran intends to impose. Washington has reportedly pushed the Iran to drop these plans.
Iran has also clarified one thing. there will be no nuclear inspection on its bombed sites. The clarification was made by top negotiator Muhammad Baggher Galibah. He added that nuclear checks are limited to only two locations. That's the Busher nuclear power plant and the Thran research reactor. Galibah's comments came after International Atomic Energy Agency's chief Rafael Grossi said that the AY's inspectors will have to have access and inspect Iran's nuclear sites under the agreement signed last month. And what about Iran's nuclear program? Well, that is reportedly slated for deeper discussions in later rounds of talks which will happen after the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayat Ali Kame's funeral. And Iran has a condition. It says terms and conditions under the memorandum need to be met for any further talks. At the moment, we are coordinating and holding discussions to ensure those are fulfilled. I will explain further later. Until those commitments are in place, we will not move on to the remaining provisions at all.
Now Kami's public funeral will begin on Saturday with his body lying in state at the colossal complex in central Thran that hosts major Friday prayers, official ceremonies, religious gatherings. He will be buried on the 9th of July after 5 days of ceremony across Iran and Iraq. A massive crowd is expected during the ceremony. Preparations are already underway with massive posters of Kame lined up on streets. Ahead of the funeral, Thran is also laying the groundwork to avoid a repeat of deadly crowd disasters that have marred previous burials. For now, the focus is going to be on the next round of diplomacy, post company's funeral. Key issues still remain unresolved. These include Iran's nuclear programs, sanctions relief, long-term security agreements, the fate of all moves. At this stage, both sides are playing a high stakes balancing act. Washington is betting that diplomacy can keep another costly conflict off the table and shield global energy markets from the shock. For Thran, gaining access to billions of dollars via frozen assets and imposing tolls in Hormuz remains the top priority. Whether this ends in a breakthrough or another breakdown, that will depend entirely on if these competing priorities can overlap or continue to collide.
Staying with Iran, the country is gearing up to receive Sukoy 35 fighter jets from Russia. The initial batch of 20 jets is ready for delivery. The remaining 28 will be ready by the end of the year. Iranian pilots are already being trained. Hangers have been modified to accommodate the Russian jets. This is a major tilt towards Moscow. For decades, Iran operated Americanmade fighter jets. But with the arms embargo, sanctions, and a full-fledged war, Iran is in no mood to trust the United States. Instead, it is growing closer to Russia. The Sukoy 35 is one of the most advanced war machines in the world. It will now be seen in Iranian colors. Our next report tells you more. >>
Iran has mastered the art of asymmetric warfare. It used drones and ballistic missiles to full effect. But while it was able to send waves of aerial attacks, Theran knew it lacked in air defenses. Iran failed to intercept American and Israeli fighter jets because the Iranian air force was plagued with a major problem. It was too thin and too old to make an impact. That is now changing. Back in 2023, Iran signed a deal with Russia for 48 Sukoy 35 jets. According to reports, the initial batch of 20 jets is ready for delivery. Moscow says the remaining 28 jets will be ready by the end of this year. Iran is already training its fighter pilots on simulators. As per reports, hangers have been modified to field the Sukoys. Meanwhile, Russia has sent equipment and weapons. More than 300 missiles for the Sue35 have been delivered. So what is this jet and how will it boost Iran's capabilities. The Sue35 is a 4 plus plus generation fighter aircraft. It was evolved from the legendary Sue27. The twin engine aircraft comes with a modern radar and can track 30 targets up to a range of 400 km. The Sue35 has a combat range of 1,600 km. It can launch air-to-air and anti-surface missiles. The aircraft is combat proven. It was designed to absorb heavy electronic jamming, clear the skies of interceptors, and deliver long range standoff weapons. But the best part is that the Sukoy 35 does not need proper runways. It can operate from short, rugged, and makeshift air strips. That was a critical requirement for Iran when it chose the aircraft. For years, the operated old and aging Americanmade fighter jets like the F4 and the F-14 that were acquired before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But decades of arms embargo and sanctions prevented Iran from buying American jets again. And now, after having fought a full-fledged war with the US, Iran has completely aligned with Russia. Thran and Moscow are no longer transactional partners. From drones to missiles and now jets, the two countries are only deepening ties. The completion of the first batch of Sue35 jets shows that Moscow wants to stay committed to its ally. As these advanced jets prepare to lift off and take their positions in Iran, one thing is clear. Arms embargos and sanctions can carry on for decades, but complete isolation is an illusion. Alliances are forged by shared strategic interests and even a full-blown war cannot stop that.
Europe says it wants to reduce its dependence on China. But while politicians negotiate, Europeans are voting with their wallets and they're buying Chinese air conditioners in record numbers. This is why Europe can't quit China. And the irony couldn't have come at a worse time. You see, this week, officials from the European Union and China sat down in Brussels. The goal to reduce Europe's record trade deficit, to improve market access, and to address years of trade imbalances. How much is that trade gap? The European Union's deficit with China grew 15% to 360 billion. That is $410 billion dollars last year with all 27 member states experiencing a shortfall. Electrical equipment and machines are among the most imported goods and this year it is only continued to widen. Europe says the status quo is no longer sustainable. It wants a more balanced trading relationship. Beijing however isn't showing many signs of budging. It is already warned that it will retaliate against any new trade curves targeting its industries. And that is what makes the timing so awkward.
You see, the two sides met in Brussels just as a historic heatwave has Europeans rushing to buy air conditioners, mostly made in China. Europe has long resisted air conditioning as noisy, an eyesore on architectural facads and unnecessary because summer heat was rarely this extreme. Europe also fears that the widespread adoption of the energy hungry technology that is air conditioning risks undermining the fight against climate change. Also, the climate in Europe simply didn't demand it. That is until now. With Europe experiencing record heat wave, air conditioners in Europe aren't a luxury. They've become a necessity. But there's one catch. Many of the air conditioners Europeans are now buying actually come from Chinese manufacturers. One of China's biggest makers of ACEs is a company called Media. The company says orders have already topped 200,000 this year. The number has doubled from last year. Such is the demand that in Germany a website tracking inventory went viral as buyers rushed to find available stock and in many places the machine sold out. Only about 20% of European households have air conditioning. In comparison in the United States that number is close to 90% which means Europe is now a massive growth market and Chinese manufacturers know it. In fact, the three Chinese brands that sell ACS in Europe together control about a third of Europe's market and they've designed products specifically for Europe, which means they require no drilling, no building modifications and no fighting with heritage rules in European buildings. Chinese manufacturer did their homework. So, while Brussels debates how to reduce its dependence on China, Chinese companies are becoming even more essential to European consumers. And this isn't just about air conditioners. It's about the bigger challenge facing Europe. How do you reduce dependence on a country that makes so many of your products, the products your economy and your consumers still need? That is what's giving Brussels sleepless nights. Because this is no longer just a trade problem. It's a dependency problem.
Here's what Brussels is really after. The European Union wants China to buy more European goods to a reduce the record trade deficit and b address what it calls unfair trade practices. But analysts say Beijing is offered very few concrete concessions. No import targets, no enforcement mechanism and no guarantee that the trade imbalance will actually change. So Brussels is turning up the pressure. It has tightened rules on Chinese solar products. It is targeting low value imports like those Teimu and Sheen and it is closely monitoring its dependencies in rare earths, automobiles, advanced machinery. But there is a limit. Europe isn't talking about a blanket trade war because it still relies on China as I mentioned for too many critical products. What it wants is to buy less out of dependence and more out of choice. But this summer, the heat has delivered a rather inconvenient truth. Europe is not ready to quit China.
A flying palace is taken to the skies. The new Air Force One is airborne. US President Donald Trump took the inaugural flight of his new plane. It's allegedly the most luxurious jet in the world. the peak of aerial opulence fit for a king which makes sense because Trump got it from a royal family. It was a gift from Qatar. The plane was worth $400 million and then the American government reportedly poured another billion into this to make it secure enough to carry the president. Our next report takes a look inside Trump's new palace in the sky.
To be honest with you, uh, I'm excited about the first flight. It's something nobody's ever seen anything like it. >> That was US President Donald Trump just before he boarded the new Air Force One. He was excited about his new Sky Palace. So were the people who accompanied him on the jet's maiden flight. Take a look at what they posted. Fancy conference room with leather seating. Check. Those wooden rings are apparently cup holders. A very luxurious touch. You can see how happy the people on the flight were with the conference room setup. Here's White House press secretary Caroline Levit. She's smiling ear to ear in front of a very fancy looking bookshelf. However, maybe she didn't get a chance to browse the books because most of the leatherbound copies seem to be labeled library. Oh well, perhaps they'll stock up on real books later. After all, they had other things to focus on, like goodie bags and gold rimmed invites, gold rimmed plates and bowls, and of course, mood lighting to give the whole place a golden hue. That's all very on brand for Trump. After all, he's known to be quite fond of gold interiors. The US Air Force says that it didn't really change much of the cabin layout. So, the luxury seems to have been builtin, which makes sense as the jet was once used by the royal family of Qatar. >>
And uh I went to Boeing, I said, "Who has the best one?" They said, "Quit Qar. There's no there's never been a plane like it." Frankly, we couldn't build a plane like this because we wouldn't be willing to spend the kind of money necessary. They spent top dollar. So the head of Boeing said, "This is considered the best 747 they've ever built." And I went to Qatar. I said, "I'd like to use it for a period of time because the other ones, as you know, are under construction. They'll be here in 2 years." And cuz, you know, the plane is 35 years old. So I said, "I'd like to use it." and uh the Amir Tamim who's a great gentleman he said no no I'd like to make a contribution to the country. >>
The new Air Force One is a Boeing 747800. It was a gift from Qatar and a very controversial gift at that because normally no one gets a gift worth $400 million from a foreign government. But Trump believes that it was necessary because the old Air Force One was getting quite old. It was a cold war era jet and it had been in service since 1990. Boeing is supposed to deliver two new planes, a new Air Force 1 and a new Air Force 2. They should have arrived a while ago, but cost overruns and delays mean that the new jets won't be ready till at least 2027, and they will cost $5 billion instead of the original 3.7 billion. So, for now, Trump will have to fly in his new Shake Force One. It's being considered a bridge aircraft until the new Air Force One arrives next year or the year after that. That's why the American taxpayer paid a billion dollars to spruce up the Qatari jet with essential security features a US president needs. Trump insists that this was the right call. Mr. >> President, what's your favorite upgrade to the new plane and how much did it cost uh American taxpayers to upgrade the plane for? cost very little relative to what it would cost if we did it a different way. >>
The American taxpayers will be happy to know that their president now travels in safety and comfort and of course his trademark golden luxury.
Dear Indranoi, the India you left is not the India that exists today. Why do I say that? Recently, Indra Nui's comments in an interview with former US Secretary of State Connise has sparked a larger conversation. This is what she said. >> I would never have been CEO in any other country of the world, including in India. So, I look at them and I say, "Look at what I could achieve here." It's because the system is a meritocratic system. Mentors don't care whether you're male or female. You see, every immigrant carries two versions of home. One grows, evolves, and changes with time. The other exists only in memory. It is frozen in the year they left. Perhaps that is why her recent comments about India have struck such a chord. Not because they come from a place of malice, but because they come from a place of memory. And memory, as beautiful as it is, does not always keep pace with reality.
There are few Indians who have earned the admiration that Indra Nui has. She didn't just become the CEO of PepsiCo. She became a symbol of possibility. A woman from Chennai who studied at Madras Christian College went to IIM Kolkata cross continents to pursue higher education at Yale University in 1978 and eventually led one of America's most iconic operations. Her journey inspired generations of Indians to dream bigger which is precisely why her recent remarks deserve a conversation. Let's first understand the India she left. She grew up in an India the India of the 1960s and '7s and she acknowledges this. She's right. That India existed. She has lived it. But here's the question. Can the India of 1978 be used to describe the India of 2026? Because while she left India, India did not stand still. The country liberalized its economy in 1991. It dismantled much of the license raj. It opened itself to global markets. Entire industries were born. Today, India is home to one of the world's largest digital economies and one of its fastest growing innovation ecosystems. The opportunities available to an ambitious young woman today are vastly different from those available nearly five decades ago. That does not mean India has solved gender inequality. It hasn't. But it does mean India has changed and that distinction matters.
She also praised America's meritocracy. Sure, America did something remarkable. It allowed an immigrant woman from India to rise to the very top of corporate America. But is meritocracy exclusive to America? If so, then how do we explain what has happened inside India over the past three decades? Consider Falgoni Na. After a successful career investment banking, she founded Nika in 2012 at the age of 50. She built an empire. Today, Nika is one of India's most recognizable consumer brands and its stock market debut made her India's richest self-made woman billionaire. And then there is Mira Kulkarnney who founded Forest Essentials. Long before Ayurveda became fashionable globally, she transformed traditional Indian wellness into a luxury beauty brand that was later acquired by Esteee Lauder Companies. Let's not forget about Indian banking. Shanti Kamaram has spent more than three decades at Kotak Mahindra Bank rising through the ranks to become its deputy managing director. or consider Arundati Bhachara, the first woman to chair the State Bank of India, the country's largest commercial bank. Today she heads Salesforce South Asia, demonstrating that Indian women are not only leading Indian institutions but also playing a key role in global corporations. These are not isolated success stories. They are evidence of a country that has evolved.
Then comes a comparison between India and China. I respect the Chinese system for pulling China out of the dark ages. It became a world power because they did it centrally. India is still struggling to be a world power because democracy rules and progress is slow. But I am glad it is a democracy. You see, India's story was always going to be different. China chose centralized control. India chose democracy. The real question is whether speed alone should define success. Democracies are noisy. They are frustrating. But democracies also allow disagreement. It's the price of freedom. To be fair, she did acknowledge this. And then she described India as chaotic. Many Indians would probably agree India is noisy. It is crowded. It can test your patience every single day. India is not for beginners. But reducing the India of today to its chaos misses the bigger picture. This is the same country that built one of the world's most sophisticated digital public infrastructure systems. UPI has transformed payments. This is the same country that became the first to land near the moon south pole. This is the same country that built one of the world's largest startup ecosystems and continues to produce global technology leaders, scientists, entrepreneurs. India has always been a country of contradictions. Its chaos is real. So is its capability. The India of 1978 that you left was defined by scarcity. The India of today is defined by aspiration. Back then getting into a good college was the dream. Today young Indians are building companies before they turn 30. Back then global careers meant leaving India. Today multinational companies are expanding into India because the talent is already here. Back then success meant escaping India. Today many Indians are choosing to build in India. This is not nationalism. It's simply our lived reality. This is not about choosing sides either. None of this is an argument against America. America gave you extraordinary opportunities. Let's not forget it also probably resents you for it and many people who look like you. Anti-immigration sentiment is at its peak. Indians are accused of stealing jobs twice as often as Mr. President posts his rants on Truth Social. The two ideas are not mutually exclusive. Indranui, your story will always remain extraordinary. It deserves to be celebrated, but so does the story of the India that came after you. And finally, one thought, America gave the world Indraui, but while America is still trying to elect its first woman president, India has already elected a woman prime minister and two women presidents. The story of India is still being written and it looks very different from the one you left behind.
Do you remember the com boom of the late 1990s? Every company added com to its name and investors threw money at it like it was confetti only for it to lead to massive market crashes. Before that, in 1840s, pardon me, there was the railway mania, a stock market bubble in the railway industry. And even before that, red tulip bulbs were traded on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange for absurdly high prices in the 1630s. Human beings have an incredible ability to mistake excitement for economics. We are currently seeing similar signs. This time the bubble is around artificial intelligence. You see, stock markets have a habit of creating two things. Billionaires and people who insist the end is near. Whenever prices hit record highs, a chorus of experts emerge to announce that the bubble is about to burst. Sometimes they're so early that the market doubles before proving them right. Now it's AI's turn. The skeptics are back arguing that today's euphoria is tomorrow's cautionary tale and hoping this is finally the year they get to say we warned you.
The latest to sound the alarm is American investor Michael Bur. He is the one who famously predicted the 2008 housing collapse, the man immortalized in the Hollywood movie, The Big Short. He is once again betting against market optimism, where he has reportedly taken short positions against companies like Tesla, Caterpillar, and Applied Materials. Here's what short positions means. Normally, an investor buys a share low and hopes to sell it high, right? but with a short position. An investor does the opposite. They borrow shares of a company from a broker and they sell those shares immediately at the current market price. Then they hope for the price to drop. After that, they buy the shares back at a lower price and return them to the broker. The difference is the profit. In Barry's case, he's betting that these stocks will decline in value. According to him, companies are spending astronomical sums simply because they're terrified of being left behind. It's the corporate version of FOMO. Fear of missing out.
Take South Korea. Samsung and SKH Highix have announced plans to invest more than $520 billion into a semiconductor hub. Markets loved it. The NASDAQ climbed higher. Investors cheered. Barry looked at the same news and worried even more. His question is simple. When do these investments actually generate returns? Or perhaps more importantly, do they? And he's hardly alone. Economists at the European Central Bank have also started sounding cautious. They point to rising corporate debt, more leverage, more borrowing, and more speculative money chasing the technology.
Before I move ahead, it's important to know how a bubble actually forms. A new trend or technology emerges. Investors become excited. They then pour money into stocks. Prices rise rapidly, which attracts more buyers. But eventually, expectations become unrealistic. A trigger such as disappointing earnings or slower growth cause investors to sell. Prices then fall sharply and then the bubble bursts. The signs are already there. Here's one example. SpaceX raised a record $86 billion from investors, then came back almost immediately to borrow another $25 billion. A top investor at Germany largest insurer alliance has called this the classic symptom of a market entering bubble territory where easy money starts looking a little too easy. SpaceX has become a poster child for the AI bubble debate. The Elon Muskled firm completed a record-breaking IPO raising tens of billions at an estimated $ 1.75 trillion valuation. That means investors are willing to pay 90 times the revenue of the company. So prices are being driven more by expectations than by current financial performance. Then there are the big tech firms Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet. They're collectively spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure even as investors debate when those investments will generate meaningful returns. >> I suppose a bubble is not really a binary affair. It's a question of are there degrees of exuberance in this sector and I'd say the answer to that is absolutely yes and I think how that has really been played out has been how we look at the degrees of uncertainty that are in so many parts of this model. There are degrees of uncertainty around demand and there's been evidence of that just in the last few days.
Now expectations around the technology seem to have run ahead of reality. Some companies that rushed to replace workers with AI are now reversing course after the technology failed to deliver expected results. Ford, for instance, rehired hundreds of veteran uh veteran engineers, pardon me, after its AIdriven quality systems underperformed. Software firm IBM and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia followed similar moves. Now, here's why that should worry you. Because an AI bust could ripple through the global financial system. It could even worse could be even worse than the dotcom burst because today's AI boom isn't just about stock prices. It's financing economic growth itself. That's a much bigger gamble.
Back in the late 1990s, the American economy was genuinely booming. GDP growth regularly exceeded 4%. Government finances were healthy. The United States even ran budget surpluses. Fast forward to today. Federal debt exceeds 120% of GDP. Budget deficits have become the norm. And then there's another risk, concentration. The so-called magnificent 7, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla have become so dominant that they practically drag the entire American stock market behind them. Today, the 10 biggest companies account for roughly 40% of the S&P 500. During the dotcom bubble, the peak was around 27%. This could impact markets around the world. That's because American markets aren't just America's problem anymore. Retirement funds in Europe, insurance portfolios in Asia, mutual funds in India, everyone owns America whether they realize it or not.
Does this mean AI itself is fake? Absolutely not. That's the wrong conclusion. Railways transformed civilization. The internet transformed commerce. If the bubble actually burst, the tech will remain. The investment won't. So, is a crash coming? Probably. Markets always correct excesses. The only mystery is timing. The bubble may maybe has further to run because there's a president who is prepared to end a war that he needlessly started to keep financial markets happy. There is no crystal ball that will foretell the crash. Nobody rang a bell before the collapse. Nobody announced the 2008 financial crisis in advance. And nobody knows what will prick today's AI balloon.
India is planning to bring home a fallen warrior. The government has put out a tender. It is organizing a recovery mission. Now this may sound standard, expected even. But there's a twist to this tale. The warrior fell a long time ago all the way back in 1996. He died while attempting to scale Mount Everest. His body is still there on the icy peak and it is world famous. The warrior is Lansag Dorj Murup of the Indotibetan border police but the world knows him as green boots and after 30 years India plans to bring him home and lay him to rest. Here's our report.
For 30 years, the body of a man has been lying frozen near the summit of Mount Everest. Climbers have known about this for decades. They even have a name for the lost soul. Green boots, named for the lime green coughlack boots he still wears. Green boots is a famous and grim marker on the way to the summit of the mountain. His body has been frozen in place within Mount Everest, death zone. That's the term for the region above 8,000 m. Air is thin here, too thin to sustain human life for an extended period of time, hence the name. Green Boots lies 8,500 m above sea level. He is curled up in a limestone cave. That's where he would have sought refuge during his last moments. but he could not survive the blizzard that took place on the 10th and 11th of May 1996. The storm led to what we now call the 1996 Mount Everest disaster. Green Boots was one of eight climbers who perished that day. He was one of three Indians who died. All of them were part of an expedition by the Indotibetan Border Police. Six ITB personnel had attempted to summit Everest during that expedition. Only three made it back. The three who died were Lans Nayak Dorj Morup, head constable Sewang Palour and Subidar Sewang Sandla.
India has now revealed that Lansay Dorji Marup is green boots. The confirmation came a few weeks ago. For decades, no one was sure about the identity of Green Boots. But India has now confirmed that he is Lance Nayak Dorj Murup. How India confirmed this has not been made public. Though reports say that DNA testing has not taken place. However, India hopes to put any lingering doubts to rest soon. The Indian government has issued a tender to bring Green Boots home. The tender has been issued by the Indotibetan border police. They want to retrieve their old comrade and lay him to rest. The ITB has strict requirements for the potential recovery team. It must have at least six sharps. Sherpas who have already summed Everest several times. They will have until October to recover Lansag Dorj Murup. But this won't be any easy task no matter how much experience the team has because a frozen body with all that climbing gear can weigh up to 200 kgs. The team will have to carry Lance Snider Dorjimaru green boots and all down Mount Everest down 8,500 m of treacherous slopes. They need to carry him from the death zone where the air is thin and the cold is brutal. The mission is extremely dangerous and this explains why it hasn't been done over the past 30 years. But now that we know that Green Boots is Lance Nag Dorjaru, there's also his family to consider. They've been waiting for three decades. The Indian government and the Indotibetan border police have a duty to the family as well. That may be why this dangerous mission has been postponed. A tender has been floated. So only those willing to take the risk will be a part of this mission. Now we wait to see who attempts the recovery effort. Let's hope that in a few weeks both Lance Nagdor Jim Marup and his green boots are laid to rest at home.
Mumbai's monsoon season is in full swing, which means Google Maps has officially been replaced by Google Boats. Roads are underwater. Local trains are running on rain check mode. But if there's one thing residents never let the rain wash away, it's their sense of humor. When Mumbai can't beat the monsoon, it simply trolls it.
Heat. Heat. Heat up here. And now it's time for Vantage Shorts. Images that tell a story.
In Venezuela, a miracle rescue after days of desperation. Emergency crew pulled a security guard alive from the rubble of a collapsed mall after a three-day operation involving rescuers from several countries.
In Canada, Prime Minister Marani celebrated Canada Day with a perfect pancake toss at a community breakfast.
And in Hong Kong, China's PLA Navy ships Naning and Henyang arrived in city waters ahead of public visits at the PLA's naval base.
Finally, on this day in 1937, American aviator Amelia Hehart disappeared over the Pacific during her attempt to fly around the world. Her fate remains one of aviation's greatest mysteries.
That's all for today. See you tomorrow.
Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat up here.