Transcription
Welcome everyone to the second segment of "Stock Market C See". Still by my side are Mr. Shi and Mr. Hao De. In the last segment, we mentioned that the Chinese economy has recently shown many signs of recovery. However, looking deeper, some figures are also worrying. For example, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the youth unemployment rate in March reached 16.9%, a new high for the year. Many young people have also lamented online that they are unemployed immediately after graduation. Do these two gentlemen believe that short-term signs will follow China's economic recovery, and will the unemployment rate continue to fall, or is it structural? Because the youth unemployment rate is very high in many Western countries, but recently China seems to have this problem too.
You just hit on a key point. In fact, this is not a problem that only China has to face. Hong Kong also has to face this problem, or the whole world has to face this problem. Now that our economic growth momentum is basically slowing down, those who are already working will continue to work. For the new labor force, especially young people, how can they get opportunities to do this? In fact, it is difficult. In the coming period, with AI improving productivity in a deeper and more diversified way, this problem also needs to be solved. Because my own children will graduate in a few years, I also have to consider this problem. In fact, it is difficult.
Returning to the situation in mainland China, the economy in mainland China has experienced a downturn in the past few years. It has stabilized a bit now, but overall business activity, especially private economic activity, is actually slow. New investments and new ideas are not very actively embraced in the country. In fact, it is always private enterprises that drive job creation and economic vitality. So this is also related. This is why the latest youth unemployment rate is so high. Unless it is some relatively special industries, such as the hardware technology and AI-related industries just mentioned, but they cannot occupy the entire job market. Not everyone studies science; some study business, some study liberal arts. They will have a harder time. Is everyone going to deliver food? Impossible.
In fact, young people in the mainland also face a situation where they have the conditions to wait. Due to the past one-child policy, the current new generation has grandparents, grandmothers, grandfathers, grandmothers, plus parents, several family members who still have income, and people with savings to support one child. Their motivation to go out and strive will also decrease. Of course, it's not that everyone is so rich. The mainland is vast and populous, and there are many people. Not everyone has so many resources. Overall, considering mainland China's past population policies, it has made it difficult for the new generation of young people in the mainland to find jobs, while their challenge of being forced to find jobs has also decreased. So this also explains part of the reason why the employment situation for young people in the mainland is like this now.
Mr. Shi, are you worried about the high youth unemployment rate? I personally feel that the high youth unemployment rate is partly caused by the mindset of young people themselves. For example, in Hong Kong, I come into contact with many companies, and they can't find people. Those who come out to look for jobs can always choose. When I hire people myself, after agreeing on the terms, they don't show up in the end because they have several job offers. So it's not that there are no jobs at all. But young people now have more demands on what they want to do. Also, as Mr. Hao De just said, they have the conditions to choose. The family's economic situation is not as bad as before.
Last year, I met a tour guide in Europe who kept complaining to me that his daughter had graduated and was doing odd jobs here and there, not worried at all. He said that when they graduated, their families were very anxious about whether they had found a job. They had to do anything first, waiting for your salary to make a living. Now it's not so anxious. So they study this, do that when they have time, and change jobs if they are not satisfied. I see this type of colleague in companies. Not an employee of your department, but part-time responsible for filming. After graduation, he was supposed to be working and studying. I saw that he had graduated. I said, "You're still here. Haven't you graduated?" I asked, "Why don't you find a full-time job?" He said, "This one is good. I don't have to go to work every day."
Could it be that it's not just the mainland and Hong Kong, but the entire youth culture is different? They feel they don't need to work so hard, and perhaps life has other goals now. Now that I'm older, I see young people nowadays emphasizing work-life balance. In the past, everyone just found a job and did whatever paid the most. Now people's ideas are a bit different. But conversely, I think we shouldn't always complain that the next generation is not as motivated. I think sometimes the psychological state, if the overall social development stage is high-speed growth, people might think, "David is my friend. He earns so much money from this job." I can't be at a disadvantage. If he can do it, I can do it too. There will be a spirit of striving. Now, perhaps your children, even if they graduate from prestigious schools, don't seem to have many special opportunities. Everyone is lying flat together. They feel that the opportunities and ideas of people around them are similar. Everyone is lying flat. They don't feel particularly lazy. They feel everyone is the same. This is also a problem that teenagers sometimes face. They feel that this so-called "lying flat" is just that we can't stand it, but their experiences and their friends are in that environment.
The issue you need to worry about now. You mentioned the term "lying flat." It was very popular in mainland China at one time. But recently, the Ministry of National Security issued a document stating that "lying flat" could be instigated by foreign forces, leading young people not to work. Therefore, many internet influencers have been advised to work hard now and strive again, hoping to change their destiny. If young people are "lying flat," how would you advise them? I don't entirely agree with rationalizing "lying flat" because there are also arguments in society that sympathize with "lying flat," suggesting that it is the social system or government policies that have caused people to "lie flat." In fact, why don't I like "lying flat"? Life requires a certain struggle and effort to give your existence value. Encouraging them to "lie flat" is equivalent to telling them to give up on life, which is not far from encouraging suicide. Of course, I'm exaggerating a bit, but some young people have really become shut-ins, living their lives with their phones, ignoring everything else. Now, most families have few children, and the family can afford to support them. But I see that most people of our generation, when they first started striving, didn't have great ideals. Most of them couldn't even make ends meet. If you don't work, you can't even eat. So it's their instinct, their survival desire, that drives them to work hard. By constantly working hard, they progress through competition. "I originally had great ideals." "Now society doesn't allow my great ideals to be realized." "Of course, I'll lie flat." But the real world is not like that. I fear that with the rise of human productivity, there will be robots in the future. As Elon Musk says, in the future, most people won't have to work. If most people don't have to work, how will they enrich their lives? How will they achieve something? It might be even more difficult.
But Mr. Shi mentioned that there is a saying among those who "lie flat" that they still need to live. So many people might trade stocks to make a living. Perhaps when the market is good, they can make money by pressing two buttons and not need to work. Mr. Hao De, do you encourage young people to choose full-time stock trading? Have you seen any successful examples?
First, I need to speak up for young people. Because I am half young and half old, I am middle-aged. Because I believe that it is the stage of social development that has reached this point. It is very obvious... If we look at Hong Kong, people who made their fortunes some time ago might feel that they were more diligent or had more opportunities. But with such a complex economic structure now, the gap in capital and knowledge is very large. It's not that a young person suddenly has great ideals and can easily achieve something. Because if you don't solve the monopoly of capital and knowledge, it is very difficult to achieve a significant breakthrough. So there will be some outstanding individuals like Musk, but for the entire population, their mobility is actually decreasing because they lack the leading edge in capital and knowledge. So they feel they have no work to do, not because they are decadent, but because the objective environment has objectively limited them. This is a fact.
Another thing is... From my perspective, I'll scold them a bit. Young people have a problem, which is that I think their understanding of the world is skewed. The original sin is not in them, but we invented something called social media. Social media, the internet. Most of their understanding of the world is absorbed from the internet. We all know that the internet is a dangerous thing. It's not that it has no benefits, but there are some things we need to pay special attention to. First is stock trading. On young people's Instagram, and for older people, Facebook, you see others making money from stock trading. I rarely see anyone post saying, "Oh, how miserable. I didn't get an IPO" or "I lost money trading stocks." It's very rare. So they have a lot of understanding of the world, but it's biased towards the good side. Therefore, I think their understanding of these things is that it's very easy. Stock trading is also like that. Regardless of the school of thought, perhaps you are a fundamental analyst, analyzing industries and companies, or some are chartists. Chartists actually have a lot of knowledge. But what I fear most is that some people think, "It's just easy." "Whoever buys, I'll follow and buy." This is actually dangerous. Of course, it has been easier in the past few years because the US stock market has been a super bull market for the past five years. Everyone felt that they could basically ride the wave. But the problem is that financial markets are unpredictable. They can continue, they can have consecutive big gains. Even in my industry, every era, especially in Hong Kong stocks, you've heard of young stock gods emerging from time to time and saying how amazing they are. Of course, that happens, riding the wave. But how many can accumulate like this continuously? You'll find it's actually not easy. If it were that simple, with Hong Kong people loving money so much and loving stocks so much, it wouldn't be easy to spend your life trading stocks full-time. Many have such opportunities. First, you are lucky. Second, you know how to stop. Then you can slowly accumulate. But if you talk about young people, first, your capital is not particularly large, and honestly, your experience in dealing with market fluctuations is very short. Perhaps you can do well in a bull market, but not in a bear market. So my advice is, never make stock trading your profession. If you really like investing, you can apprentice, you can work in related industries, find a job. I think that's reasonable. You are very interested, and in fact, if you do well in investing, then finding a job is not "lying flat," it's rewarding. But you won't have the idea of, "Why not try trading stocks?" In fact, I know many young people are like this. Of course, in the end, none of them are successful. What's worse is that I see many who don't work, try for two or three years, and then find out it's not feasible. Then they look for a job, and during the interview, they will be asked what they did during those two or three years. Can they say, "I traded stocks at home, and I didn't do well, so I'm looking for a job"? Perhaps some companies will give them a chance, but at the same time, there are several other competitors who have been diligently looking for jobs and self-improving. Companies tend to hire those people first, not those who have traded stocks full-time. A prodigal son returning is good, but the real world is cruel.
"Lying flat" is not just about full-time stock trading or not working. Recently, it has also extended to several slogans: "No marriage, no children, no consumption." This is said in mainland China. So looking at the figures, the number of marriage registrations in China in the first quarter hit a new low, a decrease of 6.24% year-on-year. The birth rate in 2025 has fallen to the lowest since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949. I want to ask Mr. Shi, Mr. Shi, do you think that if China wants to solve the problems of young people, should it solve the employment rate, or their mindset, or the birth rate? Do all these need to be solved?
This is a societal problem. I personally feel that the alarm bells are ringing, letting us know that if society does not make some adjustments in certain areas, we will continue like this, and humanity could become extinct. So I personally feel that there are problems in many aspects, such as values, government systems, and resource allocation. It's not something that can be explained in a few words, but it is worth paying attention to.
Mr. Hao De, are you worried that this trend will continue to affect China's development? Yes. In fact, for the past twenty or thirty years, a very important factor for China has been the demographic dividend. This is a very important aspect of economics... The development of an economy usually relies on a few things: first, population; second, technological advancement or capital improvement. The demographic dividend is now beginning to dissipate. The entire social and economic structure will face difficulties. As mentioned earlier, those children now have several people supporting them. In the past few years, one person had to support several. This is a big challenge, and it's not easy to reverse. Of course, the global economy is like this. The more developed a country is, the lower its birth rate will be. So now the right-wing is making a comeback. The UK elections, Australian elections, recently the exclusionary, nationalist parties have won. You see this trend starting in Europe a few years ago. Trump also attacked abortion and homosexuality, promoting more conservative religious consciousness, traditional ethics, and so on. Society is changing, and that change poses certain hidden worries for the future of humanity. So various forces want to solve these problems in their own way. Since there are no signs of solutions to these problems, the solutions they propose are becoming increasingly tough and extreme. Ideology arises because economic development has reached a point where people cannot solve their problems.
Do any of our viewers have any thoughts on the deep-seated issues we've discussed, such as "lying flat," unemployment, and not marrying or having children? Feel free to leave your comments in the comment section. Our time for this episode is up. If you are interested in our program, remember to tune in every week. You can also Like, Share, and Subscribe to our channel. We'll see you next week. Goodbye.