Transcription
This is Democracy Now. democracynow.org, the War and Peace Report. I'm Amy Goodman.
In the most serious escalation since a US-Iranian so-called truce was reached in April, Iran and Israel exchanged fire overnight. Iran launched a wave of missiles at northern Israel, saying it was in response to Israeli attacks near Beirut on Sunday. Israel responded with attacks on several areas of Iran, including the capital, Tehran.
Earlier today, Iran announced it's halting strikes on Israel, but warned it'll carry out a more severe response if Israel continues to attack Lebanon. Israel attacked Iran despite President Trump telling Axios on Sunday that he planned to call Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to urge him not to respond to the first wave of Iranian missiles.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismael Bari spoke in Thran earlier today. "America has direct responsibility in any action that the Zionist regime carries out in relation to violation of regional peace and security against Iran."
We're joined now by Trita Parsy, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, author of several books including "Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy." His latest piece for responsible statecraft is "Iran Strikes Israel Proving It Will Use Hard Power on Behalf of Lebanon." Why don't you elaborate on that? Were you surprised by this major violation of the so-called ceasefire between the US and Iran and what this says about how much power President Trump has over Netanyahu? He said he warned him not to do this, not to respond to Iran attacking Israel for Israel attacking Lebanon.
Thank you, Amy. Good to be with you. I was not surprised by the Iranian attack on Israel. In fact, a couple of days ago, uh, just before Trump had his first colorful conversation with Netanyahu, the Iranians had already signaled that they were about to strike Israel. They were probably 45 to uh, 60 minutes away of doing so. Uh, that's when Trump intervened and the situation was diffused. So the fact that the Iranians were going to uh, uh, enforce the red line in Lebanon, I don't think was a surprise, and I think the US government took it seriously as well.
What is perhaps a bit surprising is the immediate reaction that Trump had and of course then that the Israelis defied uh, Trump's expressed wishes. And and where that goes from now, we will have to see. But it's important to understand that what the Iranians were trying to do, and what really worries the Israelis, is that they were trying to extend their deterrence. They had already established their own deterrence in the sense that any attack on Iran clearly would be retaliated against. But now they were trying to say that even if the Israelis were to attack Lebanon, southern Lebanon, they would also face a re-Iranian retaliation, which would be the first time in a very long time that a major power would put real hard power behind uh, a warning or a deterrent against an attack by Israel on a third country. Uh, and this is part of what uh, the Israelis are worried about because if it suddenly means that they can no longer have that complete maneuverability in Lebanon, in Gaza and elsewhere that they enjoy, that they are enjoying because the West is more or less uh, enabling that to happen. They're politically defending it, etc. And for the last couple of decades, it has not been challenged by any regional state in a sincere or or serious way. This appears to have been an attempt by the Iranians to uh, challenge that, to establish this extended deterrence. And this is part of the reason why the Israelis have acted so uh, aggressively against this attempt, as they call it, to establish a new equation in the region.
I mean, dramatically minimize Israel's maneuverability if it were to stand.
So Trump has spoken to Netanyahu. It's interesting that it's Iran first that says they're not going to attack Israel if Israel doesn't attack again Iran, or I presume Lebanon. And is this Iran saying you can't have a side agreement that's being negotiated in Washington that excludes Hezbollah between um, Israel and Lebanon? It is part of the ceasefire, so-called ceasefire with Iran. The Iranians have from the outset said that if there is to be a ceasefire and an an end to the war between the US and Iran, then it has to be regionwide, meaning that it has to encompass Israel as well. If it doesn't, if Israel is unrestrained, it will have an ability to restart the war and the ability to drag the US back into the war. Since the objective is to end the war and to end it in a durable manner, uh, making sure that the Israelis cannot have the freedom of starting the war again or bombing Lebanon or other places has to be included. That is the Iranian perspective. The question is, if now when they are signaling that they're willing to back off, are they doing so in order to put pressure on the US to now deal with Israel, or are they doing so because they're regretting their attack and realizing that the Israelis would strike at them much harder? It, it remains to be seen exactly what the calculation is, but I don't think that the Iranian side is going to back off from its demand that any end to the war has to be regionwide and has to include Lebanon and Israel as well.
Talking about a ceasefire in Gaza and a ceasefire in Lebanon, can we still use that term, or we should we be saying increase fire? I mean, we're talking about thousands of Palestinians and Lebanese dying since this so-called truce in both areas.
These so-called ceasefires that have been established in Gaza or in uh, Lebanon are exactly what the region doesn't want, exactly what the Iranians at this point seem to be uh, rallying against because they're completely one-sided. They're Swiss cheeses of a ceasefire and fundamentally unacceptable. And what their worry is is that the US would put some pressure on the Israelis to ceasefire. And this ceasefire would only last a couple of days or so, and then slowly but surely the Israelis would once again restart attacks against whether it is uh, Lebanon or whether it is Gaza. And they don't want to see a scenario of that kind be repeated. And as a result, uh, they're now using some of their hard power to essentially signal that any ceasefire, any end of the deal has to be complete. Otherwise, it will be a complete war. Uh, instead of this uh, kind of shameful situation you have right now in which we call it a ceasefire, but more than 3,500 Lebanese have been killed in that so-called ceasefire.
So, what do you expect to happen at this point? I mean, while President Trump has said he could be prime minister of Israel, um, uh, in fact, how much sway does President Trump have over Netanyahu? I mean, can Netanyahu continue attacking Iran if Trump doesn't want him to, given the amount of weapons the US gives and can withhold from Israel?
Without a doubt, just a phone call or some angry quotes to the media is not going to be enough to get Netanyahu and Israel to back down. If Trump is serious about restraining the Israelis, it has to be uh, combined with a restriction of arm sales, sharing of intelligence, and other measures that enable the Israelis to conduct these attacks in the first place. I suspect that the Trump administration's calculation, however, is they do not want to have that massive fight with Israel about a a real restraint on them unless they have a deal with Iran. It is not worth it for them to take a gamble and have that big fight with Israel in the hope of getting a deal with Iran. Uh, because then they may end up spending all of that political capital fighting the Israelis and still not get a deal with Iran. So I think the administration's position is that they will only do so if there is a deal with Iran. And the Iranian position is that there won't be a deal with Iran unless you prove your ability to restrain the Israelis.
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