Lesson 8 April

Hello everyone. I hope that you know you had a wonderful trading week so far, and we're back again, right? So far this month, we have, we've had a rather, you know, large range month with the Dow leading. You don't see that a lot, right? So, just by looking at my screen, you guys can see the monthly time frame, right? And this is something, you know, I would say a swing trading concept which can help you, and it's pretty simple, right? And that's due to the fact that even though, right, the index futures market does not follow the traditional, you know, what do I call it, cycle, yearly cycle, it does, you know, respect the open of the year, right? And just by looking at the monthly time frame, right, we can see that this candle traded above this one. This one traded below this one, right? And if you look closely, you can see that this one closed below this one here. You, this one closed above this one here and trading above this one. So, you know, on the lower time frame, of course, this is SMT, as you would expect. And oh, if I go to the lower time frame, you can see that, right, we have SMT right here. And of course, the Nasdaq is very choppy, right, very choppy. Please take note of everything that I say, right? I'm trying to deliver the content in a way that, you know, you know, you know. But yes, please take note of everything that I say, right? There won't be, you know, you won't see me like writing notes right now until we get to the other, you know, to the forum, which we will get there shortly. I'm just trying, I'm just, you know, testing everything out, making sure that everything's fine, you know, before we go to W, right? So, anyways, here you can see that we had SMT, right? Had SMT here, and SMT here as well. What did we expect this month, right? First of all, you know, we were always expecting some downside whenever the market actually, you know, turns around. That first large swing, you know, that first really, really large swing of this quarter, right? And this is what we got, which came after SMT. So, currently looking at price, you see that here we had consolidation, right? And here we had the same thing. But due to the fact that there was SMT here, right, we would expect that price would be, you know, weaken. And then just due to the fact that it's Q2, this is what we would expect. But it's not only, you know, what's here, right? There is something that is outside of the realm of quarterly theory, right, which you can implement to your chart. State notes, right? And this is the, you know, the seasonality or the, you know, seasonality switch, right? Whereas you would, you know, focus on the open of April on that specific month, right? Is there SMT between March and April? It doesn't have to close, you know, above it a lot, like or open above it a lot, the previous close, right? But it just has to open above it where another one of the triad should open below it. You'll see this is time specific, and this is a higher time frame. This is the monthly chart, right? We already had, you know, you know, SMT on the day, on the monthly cycle. Already had lower time frame cycle SMT, which is why we, you know, expected, you know, downside. That was what, even if price had, you know, went higher and run, run, run a high, we would expect lower prices, right? That's what we would, we would expect, and that's what we still continue to expect.

So here, right, I will turn this one, right? You guys can see that here on this candle, right? This candle, we traded above these highs, right? Here on this candle here, right? We did not manage to get above this high, nor did we close above this candle, right? Here, do you see? These are the three candles, you know, which caused price to, you know, fall, to go lower. And this is a daily, not a daily, my bad. This is a monthly, not a, what I say? This is a weekly chart, right? Sorry about that. I was confusing myself with the monthly chart because I have other screens open and then it's just so confusing. Anyway, this is a weekly chart, right? And this three candlestick pattern usually, you know, puts seasonal tendencies or whatever you want to call it, you know, into action. Pay attention to the closers, right? And also, you know, it's, we're getting into the second quarter of the year, Q2, which is where we expect volatility, you know, large range price swings, right? We expect downside, right? It's not about market structure shifts, it's not about any of that, right? This is what it's about, right? SMT. Also, if you guys realize, which I, I doubt that you do, right? This candle right here, or these candles right here, right? Look at the S&P 500. Look at the Nasdaq. And pay attention. I'm literally just using three swing points. And this is specific for this specific time, you know, which is April from crossing over from, you know, the last quarter. It's a precision swing point. Um, did you notice that this was a precision swing point? I don't think you did. And then here, the candle after the precision swing point, right? You have one close above the previous close, open above the previous close. Look at the, let me look at the S&P 500, right? Specifically, right? So, in the S&P 500, and this is us, you know, digging into this weekly chart right here, right? So, here we had price trade above this high, and also we had price open above this close right here. You see, whenever you have another asset class on the weekly chart, whenever it, you know, we're changing seasons, so to make it easier to understand, say we're going from the winter months through the spring months, or we're going from Q1 to Q2, we're switching over, right? Whenever you see this happen, right? And then in another asset class, right? You have this happening right here. And now we're going to look at the Nasdaq, right? You have price failing to trade above this high, right? And this candle right here, at this, you know, this specific time, you know, which is the first week of April, you have price failed to close above, or failed to open above this close right here, and failed to also share above this high, right? That is a cracking correlation, right? That is, you know. And remember that this candle in the middle of, you know, both of them must be a precision swing point, right? So, this is a precision swing point right here in Nasdaq. And as we, you know, continue, as we, you know, go into next month, then this will become more clear. It will be explained more clear. But for now, you know, it has to be like this, right? I realize that whenever I, you know, make everything, you know, too, but I said, too, you know, easy, it's like it's like taken advantage of. Or whenever I try to explain something, you know, or I explain it very well, everyone thinks they get it fully, where no, you don't. You haven't. You know, there are people here that, you know, I don't even understand why you're even here. But yeah, we will, you know, switch over to very soon. Like, I'm currently just trying to make the platform or our forum, you know, suitable for what we're doing here. So we need to have, you know, separate, you know, chat rooms, a forum, and things like that, right? And that will prevent our stuff from being cloned, right? So they won't be able to clone it anymore. And then, yeah, so that's pretty much what it is. But this right here is what you would call, you know, an advanced swing swing point, right? A PR swing point, right? And even though, right, as you guys realize, the only reason why it's, you know, necessary, the only reason why it's important, because it's a precision swing point. And we must note that there is liquidity above this right here, right? This is not random that this happened. And then we had, you know, on the weekly time frame, price trade above it and just crashed, right? So, price opened here, right? Above the previous close, you know, of the previous quarter. You know, this was Q4, right? This was the previous quarter, and this is the current quarter. No, this was Q1. This is the current quarter, Q2. Traded above it and collapsed here, right? This is the precision swing point. Price failed to, right, trade above this high. And price traded to open above this open right here. So, for this candle, the precision swing point, which is in the S&P 500, this would be a close. But due to the fact that it's a precision swing point here, which is opposite of this candle, this is an open, right? So, this is a close that's important, and this open is important, right? So, that signified that if this failed to trade above this high, that would equate to SMT, right? That would equate to an SMT swing point, right? So, this candle right here, this became, you know, very important, right? This was, you know, put into place by, you know, all of the stages that had to be touched upon right here. In the Dow, we have, you know, this open below this close, right? So, everything right here around the top on the weekly time frame is doing something different. Right? There is no symmetry with any of these right here. This one traded above this high, right? Just as how the S&P 500 showed above this side. But guess what? It did not open above this close. So, even between these candles right here, there's a cracking correlation. These are things that you, you will learn to look at. You will learn to pay attention to as we go along, right? So, yes. And of course, I don't think that this is it, right? If you guys, you know, pretty sure that you guys realize, right? For the Dow, you can see that we have a lot of, you know, unbalanced liquidity here, right? The Nasdaq, you know, we can expect lower prices, right? And then we have all this, you know, war stuff going on, economy is not, you know, stable, and so on. Then, you know, we'll look at Bitcoin too. We have this crazy um sequence of SMT between the quadral cycle, which is why we had that, we had price pull back like that, which I have noted before. I don't remember which video, but I have noted that before before, you know, price began to fall. I can't, you know, go back and, you know, look for everything that I've said because I've said so much and it's, you know, it's I used to do that, you know, every time we get something right, I just crop it up, but it's just too much now. You just have to pay attention, right? Or you can probably go back and look for yourself, right? So, I like explaining for now without any annotations. Right? I, I am, you know, hoping that you go through and mark up your charts. Right? It's better for you to see me talk about, you know, talk to talk about a, you know, a raw chart with not a lot of annotations. Right? First of all, this will push away those who actually don't want to learn this, right? And it will seem boring, right? Because it's not, you know, I'm not highlighting a fancy order block. It's just highs and lows that I'm talking about and imbalances and I'm pointing to them, right? You have to go in your charts if you want to mark them. You can, but you don't have to. It's not necessary, right? So, we could see, you know, tremendous downside, you know, in regards of these, right? So, right here, right? This is all of this is an imbalance right here, right? This is all imbalance. Remember, weeks are gaps. So, if I would do this and turn the wicks off, what would you see here? Just imbalances, right? And this right here doesn't really, really bother me. Like, I don't care about this to be honest. Remember, I don't really, I don't care about order blocks like that, right? It's SMT. So, the only thing that would, you know, have me thinking that we would be, you know, going, you know, to at least retrace before falling more would be seeing sequential SMT, right? That's the only thing. There's nothing else that, you know, matters to me. There's nothing else that, well, there are things, other things I would, you know, be lying if I said that there's nothing else. There are other things that you will eventually learn about. But, you know, for the things that we're using, that we have talked about, there's nothing else that would allow me to, you know, see a reversal. Is that a market structure shift? I don't care about market structure shifts. It's, you know, whenever there's SMT, we get in. And when there is not, and when there's SMT in the opposite direction of the SMT that allowed us to find our footing in order flow, you know, the SMT which has put price in its current direction, you know, so if the SMT here now, and we get a retracement to, you know, cover this gap, if, you know, which is, I don't know, I would say unlikely, but it's like, right now, just isn't the best price action to trade. Let me just say that. So, we would literally want to see some form of consolidation, right? Then price would trade above that into a higher time frame grab. There's sequence to SMT, right? At the right day, at the right time, then we trade. But currently, you know, unless you got in about, you know, around here, or, you know, here, your stop is above here, then it makes no sense to do anything right now, right? But we have a lot of gaps below price action. And looking at the Dow, you know, doesn't look good. But yeah, that's it. Now, right, we're going to be going to something else that, you know, is the real gem today. The thing that you want to take note of, the thing that you want to study, the thing that, you know, it's, this is better, you know, in my opinion, than the OG FX triad, right? So, this is not an FX triad. This is an intermarket triad, right? And there are many, right? But this one is, sorry about that, one of my favorites, right? I've been trying to give hints over the past, you know, weeks, but, but yeah, I don't think anyone got it. So, yeah, here we go. So, you know, basically, this would function as a third asset, which should be in correlation. And when I say it should be in correlation, right? You know what I mean? I mean, you know, whenever the T-bone futures is running the high, the Euro and the pound should be doing the same thing, right? Whenever we have a crack in correlation, you know, such as here, where we had price fail to trade above this high, and then here, where price traded above this high, and here, and price traded above this high, right? Whenever we have that, right? And I don't even want these right here in the charts. Let me them off. Whenever we have this, but this is stronger than if you had, you know, SMT between DXY, EU, and the pound, due to the fact that the, you know, the bond market, or the, you know, which is a part of interest rate triad, controls everything, not the dollar that controls it. It controls everything, actually, right? This is specific to the weekly cycle, right? And the yearly cycle. All right? So, this is specific to the weekly cycle and the yearly cycle, right? Looking at this, right? For example, here, right? You see the bond market make a lower high here, then here, we spoke about this before. We talked about this move. We talked about pressure and about this high, you know, coming down. This was the reason, right? So, this right here is basically, you know, what a real indicator would be. And these are the assets, you know, which you compare it to. So, this right here is, it's not like you want to trade this, right? This is just to help you to gauge the markets. And then it helps you, you know, in a rather, you know, stress-free way. That's what I would say. That's what I would call it. Why? Because you're literally getting, you know, information from the interest rate triad, right? By just replacing the dollar index. So, you just have three charts on your screen. And if you're doing this right, if you're doing this, and you need you to do this, you're some people are going to be like, oh, I don't want to trade um futures again. Cuz like, no, this is so good, right? And that's your choice, really. But there are better ways, you know, for us to gauge the future markets as well, which we will, you know, eventually talk about. And commodities, you know, you some people are probably like, they doesn't talk about commodities. These not yet, but eventually, of course, you will. So, yeah, here, right? We had sequential SMT, and we had SMT here too, right? But this, you know, you don't need it, right? And it would help, and it is important, but you don't need it. That's just what it is. What I'm telling you, right? To gauge the high, the low of the week, right? You know, what I have found to be one of the easiest ways, one of, right? This is literally just a way to, you know, give someone that is new, right? This is a way to get people, you know, who have a hard understanding of price, to begin to actually understand, right? It's specific, you know, time frame frames and specific. Let me show you here, cycles first. So, this is Q1. See, Q2 failed to break above this high here. Price broke above this high, but it fell here. Price broke above this high, but it fell. The higher the intermarket sequential SMT, the larger the range will be. The rhymes. That was good. I don't try to rhyme, by the way. But yes, right? This is it. And even here, I can literally, let me zoom out, show you guys, right? We're going to look at the, right? Where look at the yearly cycle. What happened in the yearly cycle? So, I'm going to take off this monthly quarters for you guys that as well. Do you guys remember when um we were so bearish on GU right here, right? In here? And then we were literally aiming for these lows. And I don't know, some people probably, if you haven't been paying attention, you probably don't know because I am not, you know, going to be, unless it's like a crazy move, something, you know, something like that, I'm not going to be like repeating or like be beating my chest every time I get something right. You should know by now that that's normal. Is, you know, we don't need to beat our chest every time we get something correct, right? It's, it's just what it is. And it won't stop happening, right? It'll always happen. It's not, you know, hard to understand. You know, we have to be mature to a point where we don't really care about the outcome, right? So, we don't need to celebrate anything, right? If you guys remember, right? We, we, we talked about um, you know, the different, how do I say, should I talk about that now? The different, you know, fractal that's within a, you know, a quarter. But, you know, I'll, I'll leave that for now. Let's talk about this high right here. This was the high, right? And I'm referring to the bond market, right? This high right here. Here was the high of the previous quarter of last year, right? Here you can see that price tried to go above it during the previous quarter of, you know, of where we are now. So, Q1 of this year, price tried to go above Q4 of last year. That would be sequential or SMT if, you know, we had price run above here and this fail to do so. But, you know, they both failed to do so, right? And I'll turn this S cuz you guys always ask me to, right? So, here, right? We didn't have price trade above here, right? Not in the Euro, not in the pound. Is that correct? Yes, it is. At these lows right here, what do you see happening? Can you see that, right? So, first of all, we had the, we had sequential SMT between the Euro and the pound here, right? And then what, you know, what kicked off price action or run up like this? It was the second stage or the second sequence of SMT which followed this one, right? So, here, look, understand. We had price break below this low. That was sequential SMT, monthly SE, if you remember. And we talked about this too, if you remember, right? We had the pound failed to break below this low. Then we had price just begin to consolidate right here. It looked messy, right? But then here, what did we have? Intermarket SE MT. So, we had the bond market taking this low here on, wow, this was my birthday, February 22nd, right here. And here, on February 22nd, what do we have, right? We had sequence SMT. So, we had a higher low being formed, right? While price took this low right here. Here we had the same thing, right? So, whenever you have, you know, you're using this, you're going to be using this, and then you'll see, you'll begin to see things like this outline themselves in price action, right? So, first you have, you know, regular, you know, or well, this was actually intermarket sequence SMT as well, right? This was actually intermarket sequence as well. But, right? You have SMT, but between, you know, two closely correlated assets within the same asset class, for example, Euro and the pound. Price trades up, then there is sequential SMT expansion, right? Literally midway into this consolidation, which people see as equilibrium. You understand now, like, how important this is. And then what happens? Expansion. Also, right here, this high is important. Both of these highs are important. But let me just write this. This one is important, right? And I will highlight the highs with which correspond with time, right? In respect to these assets. So, this high is important right here. I, I could, I just use this one, right? Because it's right next to this, and it's a wick, right? Which is above it, which price already traded through. And then we had this one here, right? So, as you guys can see, right? While, you know, we had price break about here, we had price here, but it, or here, but it was not close to this high. And this high was within the current quarter. This indicated weakness, all right? This indicated weakness, which is why when price was trading here, we highlighted this high. And now we'll highlight this high right here in the correspondent highs and the other asset classes. I'll just do with another color, a different color. I'll use red. And the thing is, all of this is right. It's to get you, you know, your understanding up to standard so you can get what's coming next, right? So, I hope that this isn't is not hard for you to understand because if it is, then I don't know what you'll do next time, right? But you should understand this, right? You should understand this. This is a way of gauging premium discount, right? Here you can see that the pound, right? It traded above both of these highs. The Euro, it just traded above this one, right? Also, this was the high of the previous quarter of the previous year. This was Q4, right? This was Q1 of this year. And in Q1 of this year, what did you have? You had this, you know, price point, which is this price point in the Euro and this price point in the pound, you know, causing sequential SMT, right? So, here we had this, right? We had, you know, this price point, you know, couldn't even go above this one much, just this one. Sequence SMT. And here again, right? And we talked about all of this before it happened, by the way. So, it's not, remember, I don't like talking about things that I didn't quote unquote predict because it's like, I don't like talking about hindsight stuff like whole time. While this was happening, we were there, right? Literally, even here, and here, and here, right? And here, we had the Euro, not the Euro, the pound making a higher high during this quarter. So, price showed about this high. Remember, the closure is important. Daily closure, closed, drop, accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. You can see that that's pretty easy to see, right? So, this is how you would use it. And we already talked about how to use it on the lower time frame cycles, you know, which so far, just the monthly cycle, you know, which you should use the four-hour time frame for, right? That's where you look for closures to confirm your sequence of SMT, right? So, this right here, if you trade Forex, and you have the T-1 Futures, Euro, and the pound, right? You don't need, you don't, you don't need anything outside of charts, right? You're good with this alone. And remember, a lower time frame SMT confirms a higher time frame SMT. So, due to the fact that we had sequence of SMT here, what else do we have? What else do we have? We had SMT between this high and this high, right? This high and this high right here. Let me show you. So, here, here's a lower high, and then here we had a higher high. This is why the market literally moves. Like I've been, you already know this is all we talk about, right? So, this right here, this is what you should, you know, take from this lesson, right? This is me trying to make it more easy for you to understand. And when we go onto the forum, and I already know that some of you guys are going to be, you know, killing with this already, you know, you can get, I don't if you care about pips a lot, your stop loss small, right? And we will definitely, you know, be using this in the future, you know, live talking about live price action and such. And if you guys realize that these lows, what do you realize? You know, we don't have any SMT right now. What does that mean? We have to wait for it, right? The move that took place here, price fell, right? Then we had, you know, retracement, and price continued to fall, right? After we had our sequential SMT here, price continued to fall. If you realize, it's a sequential SMT, right? Sequential SMT, sequential SMT, right? And the lower time frame sequential SMTs are in line with the higher time frame sequential SMT. Do you see, you know, what we're, what we're looking at right now? Do you see the importance of this? Do you see that it actually works? Do you see like how much people like passing their challenges, whatever there are people that send me, you know, their accounts and, you know, doing very well, but they don't really want to draw attention to themselves. Like, you know, it's amazing to see. No one else talks about stuff like this. It has everything to do with quarter theory, and it works. We will be, you know, going beyond this, as you guys have realized, like we, you know, it's like we don't really have to talk about true OP anymore. We just expect, you know, it to be there, which it usually is. I hope that you found this insightful. I've been yapping for a while. I probably found this one insightful. And yeah, I'm working on the forum. Right? Really want like drops, you know, some other stuff, but like whenever we are, you know, safe. But this is good. This is amazing in itself, right? And it takes a lot of stress off of, you know, the person that does not want to have two more things on their screen at the same time, right? Try to use it this week, and you'll see the difference that, you know, it makes. Says, have a nice day. I am so tired. Literally, I don't know why I'm saying that. You don't care. Anyways, have a nice night, everyone. Have a, you know, productive week or rest of the week. And yep, we will be back this Sunday at least, right? That's scheduled live stream. Until then, I'm trying to get the forum in order. You know, it will be, you know, great and better. And we have Netflix, great, great security that we're actually working on. You know, it's just that due to the fact that they are like a big company, they have a schedule that they need to work on. But we have, you know, we're getting back great feedback and they are working on it actively, actually. So, yeah, that's what it is. So, yeah, have a good night. I'm going to be posting this before I say the next, you know, the next two hours or so. So, if you need to rewatch it on then, it'll be there. But yeah, I'll be a wonderful night, everyone. And again, yeah, that's it. Bye.