Transcription
Week 16, running back fantasy football tier list. The last video of the week. We got wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends already live on the channel. My every matchup start sit strategy already live as well. But today, let's fix your running back position. Let's go through all of the injuries and everything you guys need to decide who's in and who's out for you in your fantasy football matchup.
Let's start with the guys who are banged up. Alvin Chimera, Devin Neil, both Saints running backs out for this game, which means Audrey Esté and Evan Hall will be the starting running backs for New Orleans. Belle Tutin is out with a finger injury, which means an upgrade to Travis ETN. Bam. Knight of the Cardinals is out with an ankle injury for the rest of the season, which means Michael Carter and Amari D. Marcato will assume that role. And then Dylan Samson out with a hand injury. Jerome Ford also on IR. So, an upgrade to Quinn Sean Judkins.
Two guys that are questionable, legitimate question marks coming into Sunday's games and specifically Saturday's games with this first guy, Josh Jacobs with a knee injury. According to a Packers Beat reporter, he is quote more doubtful than questionable. However, I have a rule about Josh Jacobs. Unless he gets actually ruled out, I just always assume he's going to play through anything. So, we'll see what happens tonight. Maybe by the time you guys are watching this, you know if he is playing or if he isn't playing. I'll leave any updates in the pin comment down below. If he is in playing through this injury, I have him ranked as an RB1. If he is out for this game, I will rank Emanuel Wilson in the low-end RB2 range. And I'll get to where exactly he would rank if Jacobs is out for this game. Woody Marks dealing with that ankle injury for the Houston Texans. Did not practice, did not practice, then limited on Friday, working off to the side. I would say it's about a 50/50 that he goes. If he does end up going, he is inside my top 24.
And then guys that are kind of banged up but should play. No worries. Chris Rodriguez playing today. Uh DeAndre Swift playing today. And then RJ Harvey playing Sunday with a rib injury.
So let's move into the elite RB1's territory. Starting it off with Christian McCaffrey who is the best running back in fantasy football points per game-wise this season. The 49ers are implied for the second most points on the slate. And the Colts defense is allowing the second most offensive plays of any defense in football. So, uh, Cleveland and Tennessee have been down performances for Christian McCaffrey. We haven't really seen a blowup game since week 12 and week 11, but I do think it could be coming. The problem for McAffrey has actually been receiving work, which is really weird to say. He's had four and one target the last two games. Prior to that, he was six targets in every single game this season. So, I do think we will see a big performance out of Christian McCaffrey on Monday Night Football. And I apologize to you guys in advance if you have to sweat out like 25 Christian McAffrey points or something like that.
Moving into my RB2 for the week, Bejian Robinson going at the 26th ranked Arizona Cardinals. When the Falcons struggle, Bejon struggles. So, anytime the Falcons have a good matchup, an easy defense, the Cardinals are 30th in success rate as an overall defense, 31st versus the pass, 24th versus the run, and we know, of course, Bejon affects both areas of the field with 11 targets last week, a top five performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We've seen what he can do when he's involved in the receiving game. Falcons are quietly projected also for the seventh most points on the slate with 25 and a half and a 48 point overunder game. So this is a game environment that is very um you know helpful for Bejian Robinson managers and anybody really starting anyone in that game.
Jir Gibbs my RB3 on the week versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are 12th against fantasy football running backs. But the reason I love Gibbs this week is a he's every other game he's just snapped off. He's got 38 points, then a downish game um with 19.6, then 55 against the Giants, then 11 against the Packers, then 37 against the Cowboys, then 9.8 against the Rams. This is if we're following the pattern, the game that he's supposed to go off for like 30 points. This game is a 52 point overunder. The Lions are implied for 30 of those points, and that is the highest implied total by 3.5 of any team on the slate. And if this whole every other game trend continues, we should see Jir Gibbs pop a 30-point burger on whoever is playing against him.
Devon Achan going up against the 32nd ranked Cincinnati Bengals. He would probably rank as RB two or three for me if it wasn't for Quinn U starting instead of Tuatong Aloa. The Bengals allow the most rushing yards in total in the NFL and total touchdowns wise, they're also top five with 18 total touchdowns allowed, seven receiving touchdowns allowed as well. Um, Achan hasn't really had a blowup performance since week 10 against Buffalo. Um, but he's consistently a 15 to 18 point per game running back. When you see his performances since week eight, he has not finished outside of top 10 on any given week. We do want to see those targets continue like we saw in week 13 and week 14. He only had one target per game in those. And then he had six targets on Monday Night Football last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. So, that's all great news.
And I do have Jonathan Taylor elevated this high. Now, I think a lot of people are scared about Philip Rivers. We haven't seen a big Jonathan Taylor performance since week 10, but San Francisco is an easy matchup. The Colts are implied for just 20.25 points um overall scored, but 29 opportunities for Jonathan Taylor in that first game with Philip Rivers. That's an elite workload. He actually was getting some targets. Again, think of these old washed up quarterbacks who can't really stretch the field. We see in that first game with Jonathan Taylor, he has four targets. He had five targets two weeks before that. He's actually getting a little bit more involved in the receiving game, which, you know, ups his floor a little bit. And I do think given that since Fred Warner has gone out with an injury, this has been one of the worst run defenses in football, I think this game actually could stay pretty close. And I do think Jonathan Taylor is gonna have 25 plus touches in this game. And it wouldn't shock me if he goes well over 100 total yards and probably finds the end zone as well. So those guys, of course, everybody knows you're starting them.
Moving into the next tier of running backs, we have James Cook at the ninth ranked Cleveland Browns. The Browns are a really good run defense. They are number one in rushing success rate as a defense and they are also top three in rushing EPA. So, this isn't going to be the cupcake matchup that James Cook had last week where he was able to run all over the the New England Patriots for a top two fantasy point performance. Uh the Bills are implied for 26 points. They are 10 and a half point favorites. But this is a tough matchup for him and Cleveland at home has been a better defense than they've been on the road. So, just keep that in mind. It's possible that James Cook has a down performance.
Saquon Barkley going up against the Washington Commanders today. 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the running back position. The Eagles are implied for 26 points. The Commanders rank 31st in EPA per play as a defense overall and 28th against the run. So knowing Saquon Barkley is a pretty much a shoein for like 20 plus carries anytime they have a good matchup. You feel really good about what he's able to do for you today for the Philadelphia Eagles and the Eagles are implied for a lot of points and favored by quite a bit as well.
Bucky Irving going up against the Carolina Panthers. Now, going back to last year, you guys can see when he played against the Carolina Panthers, he basically just went off against them, posting 23 fantasy points in week 17 of last year and 27.5 in week 13 of last year. Bucky Irving hasn't had really any big performances this season outside of the Eagles in week four. I do think this could be the game that we see the big Bucky performance. Also, he's going up against me in the Flock League. So, if you want any more confirmation that he's going to go off, I do think this could be the game that he has the big performance. Top five running back in both of the games that he played against Carolina last year. He's coming off of 19 and 18 opportunities the last two weeks. Unfortunately, he was sniped in the red zone by Shawn Tucker. My stat of the game in yesterday's video was that the Bucks run gap gap rushing concepts, the third most of any team in football and Carolina is bottom six in yards per carry against gap rushing concepts. So, I do think Bucky Irving is going to get rolling and get motoring in this game.
Chase Brown been a top 13 running back in seven straight games on the back of a lot of receiving production because he's only scored a touchdown in two of those seven games. So, that is wicked target involvement. You see seven targets, seven targets, eight targets, 14 targets in some of these games. That is why he has been so consistent for fantasy the last couple of weeks. Bengals are implied for 26 points. The Dolphins are 28th in explosive run rate allowed. And as I already talked about, Quinn Eers is starting for the Dolphins. So I do think time of possession wise, the Bengals should be able to control the time of possession, maybe get some short fields off of a turnover prone young quarterback.
Trevian Henderson, of course, monster game against Buffalo last week. Breaks off the long runs, rushes for 148 yards on 10.6 yards per carry. On the season, the Ravens defense is actually top five in targets, receptions, and receiving yards allowed to the running back position. And we know Trevon since like week n or so has been the primary receiving back of this New England Patriots offense. So Baltimore 22nd against fantasy running backs. This is a game too where the the Patriots got to win, man. Cuz the Bills are probably going to beat Cleveland and Trevon and the Patriots are trying to hold that number one seed in the AFC East. And if they win this game, I believe they do lock up the division and they are going to be the winner and probably the number two or maybe even the number one seed in the whole conference. So, this is a very important for the uh important game for the Patriots and they're going to be very motivated to win that game.
Jacksonville at Denver here. Travis ETN coming off of the number one running back performance on the week last week with three receiving touchdowns and a monster performance. Now, Denver top 10 against the run. The Jaguars on the road in Denver. They are number one success rate defense overall in football. Number six success rate against the run, allowing the fewest explosive runs in all of the NFL. Tutin is out for this game, which obviously upgrades Travis ETN's receiving workload and maybe some of his ground work as well. He probably won't have three receiving touchdowns yet again in this game, but he has been an RB1 in every game but one since the buy, which is insanely impressive. They really came out of that week eight buy with an emphasis on getting Travis ETN the football and he has been very, very good since that point.
Now, Josh Jacobs, I have him ranked at 12 tentatively because I mean, although the game is today and there's not much time for me to switch my opinion on this, as long as Josh Jacobs plays at Chicago, they're 16th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the running back position, he'll probably be hobbled. He's nails I expect him to fight through it. He once said that it's way easier for him to play through injury than it is to be on the sideline watching. He's missed like two games in his entire career. So, this is a dude that just always plays through stuff. But I am kind of projecting him as like 80% of his normal effectiveness, 80% of his normal workload. Even though he's been very good in back-to-back games, I would probably have him ranked top six if he were fully healthy. The Bears are 27th in rushing success rate allowed. If Jacobs gets ruled out for this game from now, it's 10:00 in the morning Eastern to, you know, 5 6 7:00. Uh, by the time we get inactives for this game, I will tell you where Emanuel Wilson is ranked. Um, he will probably be ranked around RB 24 in my rankings right now. So, when I get to the low-end RB2s tier, just keep in mind that's where Emanuel Wilson would be if um Josh Jacobs is ruled out for this game. But for now, I put him at the bottom of the tier that he would normally be ranking at the top of if he were fully healthy.
High-end RB2s, Kairen Williams, of course, already played on Thursday Night Football in the Wild game against Seattle. Unfortunately, didn't find the end zone, but he did have 29 opportunities in that game. So, really unfortunate that we don't get a great game from him. just 11.5 fantasy points because Blake Corm decided to snipe him in the red zone. But that being said, getting 29 opportunities, you are absolutely going to start him every single time.
Javvante Williams is my RB4 for the week versus the 15th ranked Los Angeles Chargers. Javvante Williams has been consistently good, but he hasn't been great really since early in the season. We haven't seen a top 10 performance from him since week eight at Denver. So Javvante Williams, despite the 26 implied points, the fact that the Chargers are an easier defense to run against versus pass against, this game has a 49 12 point overunder, and they are number 13 in EPA per rush allowed versus number two according to 44 for four fantasy. So uh Javvante Williams again pretty good start just get banking on the 15 to 20 carries that he's going to get, a couple of targets that he's going to get, but keep in mind he is still dealing with that shoulder injury that caused him to be in and out of the lineup against Minnesota on Sunday Night Football.
Derrick Henry, my number 15 running back versus the sixth ranked New England Patriots. Now, that number six ranking for New England is very fugazi because after allowing only two games in their first nine of 100 plus total rushing yards to any team that they went up against, the Patriots have now allowed 100 plus rushing yards in every game since week 10's injury to Milton Williams. So, last week against the Bills, we saw what James Cook did against this team. They rushed for a season high 168 yards and James Cook punched in three touchdowns and I believe all of them were in the red zone as well. And as I talked about in the stat of the game for this one, New England's defense is dead last in red zone defense. They have allowed a touchdown on 75% of opposing red zone opportunities. Two defenses and the Ravens really have struggled in the red zone this year due to the fact that really Derrick Henry hasn't been as effective as he normally is and Lamar Jackson hasn't been effective as he normally is as well. So, I do think we could see a big Derrick Henry game, two plus touchdowns type of situation.
Amarian Hampton at the 29th ranked Dallas Cowboys. In the first game back for Amarian Hampton, he only played 43% of the backfield's touches, 54% of the backfield's touches last week in week 15. The ramp up is kind of slowly coming here. What a better game to unleash Amari and Hampton. They are number 31 in success rate against the run and they give up the third most explosive runs in the league, the Dallas Cowboys. So, even though we haven't seen Amarian Hampton carve out more than I guess it was 16 touches last week and 15 touches the week before that, I think this is going to be the game where he has 20 plus and probably carves out more snaps than what Kamani Vidal has had in the last two games because that ramp up from that knee injury is no joke. And I think they've taken that very seriously. They obviously want Amarian Hampton healthy for the fantasy um for the not the fantasy playoffs for the NFL playoffs for the Chargers because they are a playoff team. But I do think this could be the game where we see Amari and Hampton really break out here because a lot of people have asked me questions about him. I want him in my lineup most of the time.
RJ Harvey, who specifically I've been asked, do we start Hampton or Harvey? I would start Hampton if you guys have that decision because R.J. Harvey is going up against the defense in Jacksonville that is allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs at just 66.6 total for the entire year and they're seventh in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the running back position as well. The way RJ Harvey has gotten there all year has been touchdowns. So, he could punch in a touchdown and be just fine, but I am worried about the overall efficiency because on the year, like look at how many games this season he's rushed for four or more yards per carry. It's been like four separate games. He has not been overly efficient on the ground from like a rush yards over expected standpoint. He's like one of the worst worst running backs in the league. And it's not like he's consistently getting elite receiving volume. There's been games where he's gotten good receiving work, but it hasn't been every single week that you've seen that from RJ Harvey. Um, so not a must start by any means, but 25 and a half implied point total at home for Denver. You're probably putting him in your lineup.
Rico Dattle, same thing. Two games ago, we saw the Los Angeles Rams game where Chuba Hubard randomly started the game and got the hot hand and was the guy that they fed. Last week, we saw Rico Dattle get back on his usual workload where he gets 16 carries, 60% of the snaps, and he does score as the higher of the two running backs in this backfield. Now, Tampa Bay is 23rd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the running back position. The Bucks are generally the type of defense you want to pass the football against because we're 28th against um opposing passing games in success rate and fourth in rushing success rate. So again, you want to pass the ball against this team, but we are beatable on the ground. Unlike prior years when you just never wanted to to run the ball against us, it was completely every team would just phase it out of their game plan entirely and only throw the ball. This year it's a little bit more of a balanced approach that you can apply to the Tampa Bay Bucks. And this is a very important game. Carolina's at home. They're implied for 21.3 points in this game. Not a terrible environment for Rico Dattle to punch in a touchdown and have 20 carries on the ground. And there's been games where Tampa Bay has really struggled to stop the run. thinking of the Patriots game for uh example, the Trevian Henderson game where he broke out. That can happen against this defense.
DeAndre Swift plays the Packers tonight. They are fourth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the running back position. Um but unlike prior games, they don't have Micah Parsons for this one. And the Packers, even though they've been a top seven rushing EPA defense, does that change without Micah Parsons out there? And DeAndre Swift has been a spike week guy. when you get him going, when Ben Johnson is kind of in his bag calling the run game, you've seen really since the week five buy, that in every game but two, DeAndre Swift has been above four yards per carry. So, he's been consistently churning him out, not getting a whole lot of receiving work and he is entering this game questionable with an injury, but generally speaking, I expect him to have, you know, 80 plus total yards, probably a touchdown in this one, which makes him a good start.
Quinton Judkins finds himself at the end of this tier. I know he's been bad for the last two games, even despite an increased workload overall snap-wise in last week's game. He's been getting the majority of the carries as we know, but the Browns have just been so bad at blocking the run this season. They are currently in gap rushing attempts, 2.91 yards per carry, which is the worst in the NFL. The antidote to that is that the Buffalo Bills are 31st in explosive run rate allowed and they're 31st in rushing EPA allowed. So even though that the Browns are second lowest implied point total of any team and they can't run the ball, the Bills allow 5.81 yards per carry on gap rushing attempts and the most rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs at 1.29. So I think Quinchon Judkins with no Dylan Samson again with no Jerome Ford again should be able to carve out a very very solid performance in this game.
moving into the territory of running backs that I would assume a lot of you guys are deciding between some of these guys or deciding between a wide receiver or a tight end or whatever and some of these guys. So, I'll try and give you a good, you know, overview of what I expect from these guys in these games.
Ashen Genty at the Houston Texans. Now, Houston, no joke, man. This game could end up being 6-35 for the the Raiders versus the Texans. It wouldn't shock me if that's the score of this game. The Texans are favored by like 15 points. However, Gino Smith should be back for this game. And the silver lining is that this defense is a better pass defense than they are a run defense. They are number one in passing EPA allowed, the best pass defense in football. They are number 10 in rushing EPA allowed. And Gino Smith should be back for this game. So, if you guys are wondering, should I start Ashen Genty? His workload's been a little bit up and down. Well, the saving grace for Genty is that every game since the buy, he's had at least four targets. And in a lot of those games, he's had like five, six, seven, eight targets. So there's a good chance that you're going to get some receiving floor from Ash and Genty. And because of the defense that he's going up against, you think of like the Denver Broncos defense in week 10 as a good example. That's a defense that's better against the pass than they are against the run. And Ashen Genty had a top 15 performance in that game. I could see something very similar happening in this game. So if you're wondering, should I start Ashen Genty? My answer would be probably you should given his workload and given the matchup that they have. And of course, Gino Smith coming back is a big deal.
Number 22 running back for me is Kenneth Gainwell at the second ranked Detroit Lions. Gainwell has been an RB1. This is an insane stretch of of time for Kenneth Gainwell, who's been an RB1 on every given week since week 11 except for week 13 against Buffalo, ironically, which is a really good matchup. In four of his last five games, he has four RB1 performances. The most of any running back not named Bejan Robinson or Javon Aan over the last five games. This is peak James White type of usage with Aaron Rogers who's an immobile old quarterback. You are getting like six, seven, eight targets a game out of this dude. Uh who since week 10 has run 60% of the routes, has a 20% team target share, second behind only DK Mechaf on the Steelers and a 32% targets per run rate, which is actually first on the team over that stretch. So Kenneth Gainwell, he's getting the receiving work. I have him ranked over Jaylen Warren for the first time all season because that is how they are using him. They are using him in the passing game as like a pseudo James White type of player.
Tyrone Tracy who in my home league I had so I'm obviously up in my matchup because I had Puka Dua play on Thursday night football who dropped like 50 points in our scoring format. So I'm deciding between Tyrone Tracy and Kenneth Gainwell in my second flex assuming T. Higgins plays otherwise I'll just play both of them. And the reason I'm going with Kenneth Gainwell is because of that receiving floor because I'm up in my matchup. But Tyrone Tracy might have the higher ceiling this week because we saw last week him post a top five scoring week. 15 carries, four targets. My worry with Tyrone Tracy is that him and Devin Singleary seem to be in a hot hand approach. Whoever starts playing well gets the touches. It's why Tyrone Tracy has been so inconsistent since Cam Scataboo's injury is that if he's not the guy running well that day, they give the ball to Devin Singleary. The Vikings are a runfunnel defense, allowing the most rush attempts to opposing running backs in football. 26.4 carries per game. No defense has had more rushing attempts from running backs allowed against them. So, that is good news for Tyrone Tracy. This is a top eight defense by every marker against the pass. A bottom 12 defense in rushing EPA and rushing success rate and explosive run rate allowed. So, they are run funnel, a defense that you can run the ball against, and teams do choose to run the ball against. So Tyrone Tracy should be in for a good workload performance this week. But again, keep in mind the floor for Tyrone Tracy is 10 touches because Devin Singleary gets 20 because he's running better that day than Tyrone Tracy is. And knowing that that Tracy had the good game last week, for some reason my gut is just telling me that he won't have a good game this week. Although I do think process-wise you do have to start him if you are in a position to start him there.
So Aaron Jones, my number 24 running back on the week here. Aaron Jones has not had a good performance or not had many good performances all season, but the New York Giants are number 32 in EPA per run allowed, success rate per run allowed, explosive rush rate. Jones averaging about 14.8 touches per game since week 11. This is the type of game environment where JJ McCarthy is playing well. They're going to want to counter the blitz, too. The Giants blitz at a top three rate and JJ has been the worst quarterback in the league against the Blitz. So, I do think they're going to rely on the run, rely on Aaron Jones out of the backfield as a receiver. Aaron Jones, got to probably throw him out there given how good this matchup is. I know he hasn't been good, but this matchup is too juicy to not throw him out there.
Woody Marks, again, I would probably rank him a bit higher if he wasn't coming into this game banged up. And I don't think my ranking will change much even if he plays because he didn't practice most of the week and he was working off to the side on Friday. So, this guy is clearly injured and every single week it's a it's a weekly tradition at 2 p.m. Eastern to see um Woody Marks in the medical tent. Like, every single week. I know he plays at four this week, but you know what I mean. Like an hour into every single game that the Texans play, Woody Marks is in the medical tent with something. So, this guy's clearly playing through a lot of injuries right now. And even though the Raiders are 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, the Texans are sixth in total plays per game, the Raiders 25th in plays allowed as a defense. And they're bottom half in the NFL in rushing EPA and success rate. So on paper, I could see why somebody would want to rank Woody Marks really high. But I just think the floor for this guy because he's coming in so banged up has to be factored into his ranking. So if you have a Tracy um an Aaron Jones, a Kenneth Gainwell, I just think the floor is much higher for those guys. Even if the ceiling for Woody Marks, if he gets 20 plus touches or whatever is super high against this Raiders defense, I don't disagree with that whatsoever. I just worry that the floor games are going to come out. And even like despite his workload, you look back at his games since week seven, since they came off of buy, he's only had like four really solid games. And despite that, he's been getting the work. He's been getting all of the work for his team. And that's something that you have to factor in. When you're getting that big of a workload for your team and you're only producing like four of your nine games that are good, that is something that is got to be factored into the player and his ability.
Um, Bree Hall, my number 26 running back. I would love to rank him higher than this, but the Jets are a dumpster fire, man. They are so bad. They're starting Brady Cook yet again. And Bree Hall last year and the year before that was boyed by receiving production. This year, since the buy, he has one game of three or more targets, which is a travesty because this is a dude that should have 80 90 targets a season given that this receiving core is completely decimated with no talent out there with no Garrett Wilson. Saints are allowing the fewest targets to opposing running backs. This situation is one that I just think that Bree Hall could drop six points in your lineup and you're going to be super upset with him. So, if you have a wide receiver in the like Jaden Reed, Michael Pitman, Debo Samuel territory, I would rather start players like that and especially anybody better than that over a guy like Bree Hall because at New Orleans, they've been pretty good on defense. Over the last month, they have allowed 120 plus rushing yards per game to opposing teams. But the Jets are the Jets, man. like they just got wiped for six touchdowns by Trevor Lawrence, who a lot of us didn't know was a good quarterback until last week. So, Bree Hall, not excited about starting him. If you don't have to, I wouldn't.
And then Kenneth Walker, who already played and had a beautiful, absolute cinematography performance of 25.4 fantasy points on only 14 touches. I do not know why the Seahawks don't give this guy 20 touches a game. Because against the Rams twice this season, against the Rams, the number one defense inadjusted fantasy points allowed to the running back position. Twice Kenneth Walker has posted a top 10 week against them. And ironically, they've been some of the only games with a healthy Zack Charbanet that he's touched the ball like 15 or more times. So, this is pretty crazy that Kenneth Walker continues to get disrespected. But thankfully, I had the balls to start him in the Flock League to try and get out of the toilet bowl and he has 25 points there, like I said.
So, um, moving into the next tier of running backs, again, a lot of guys that people are going to be deciding between. Michael Carter is my running back 28 for the week. The Atlanta Falcons are 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. Last week, he posted 70 plus% of the snaps, 70 plus% of the carries, 70 plus% of the routes. That's great. If he got that workload again, I would probably rank him as a top 25 guy. But with D. Marcato now his second game back from his multi-week injury. I expect that number to drop down for Michael Carter to like 50 to 60%. Because the Falcons, even though they're a good matchup, this is going to be a committee backfield. Even with Michael Carter leading the committee, we got a report the other day coming out and saying that he's going to start for the team. The Falcons are top 10 in running back targets allowed, 28th in rushing success rate, a very fine running back flex play. And if you wanted to start him over like Bree Hall, I wouldn't blame you. I just probably would um rank him more so in the range where you're talking about flex options as opposed to like every week starters or whatever. I don't view Michael Carter like that, but I do view him as a pretty solid flex option, especially for those of you guys that are down bad, desperate, dealing with injuries, whatever the case is.
Uh Jaylen Warren has just not had the the big time spike performances since like week 10 or so that Kenneth Gainwell has been heavily involved in the receiving game. That's really capped Jaylen Warren's upside because in the red zone they sometimes swap him out for Gainwell on receiving downs. He's sometimes swapped off the field. The Detroit Lions are second in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the running back position. They are a passfunnel defense. You want to pass against this team. Generally, they can be beat anywhere at times, but opposing teams are top 10 in neutral pass rate against the Detroit Lions. So, when they play the Lions, they like to throw the football and that is Kenneth Gainwell's wheelhouse. They're bottom eight against wide wide receivers in adjusted fantasy points allowed, bottom eight against quarterbacks, but they are number one in PPR points per game allowed to opposing running backs. So, for whatever reason, the way that the ball bounces against the Detroit Lions, the receivers, the quarterbacks get the fantasy production. And even though, you know, Kenneth Gainwell is a receiving back and um Jaylen Warren's more the rushing back. So, in this game, I just don't expect to see a whole lot of Jaylen Warren 15 plus carries or something like that. I think if if he gets there, it'll be in the receiving game, just like it'll be for Kenneth Gainwell, which is why I would prefer to start Gainwell of the two of the running backs.
David Montgomery in that same game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, this game has a 52-point overunder. And anytime you got a high overunder game, the Lions applied for 30 plus points at home, David Montgomery's touchdown is live. It's on the menu. He could absolutely score once or twice in this game, which is why I have him at 30.
Tony Pard is my RB 31. He leads the NFL in rushing yards the last two games, so there's that. but he now faces a defense allowing 77 yards per game to opposing running backs which is top six in the NFL. So this is a very good rushing defense. Don't really want to mess with it.
Um Audrey Estay top six in yards and number one in total touchdowns allowed. That's the New York Jets as a defense. Deon Neil is out. Alvin Chimera is out. Audrey Estay assumes to be the guy who gets the early down work. Now, we don't know for sure because Evan Hall or some other running back that they bring up from the practice squad or even Taesm Hill could rush the ball the most in this game for the New Orleans Saints, but if you need a desperation flex play, Audrey Estame is not a bad option. I just wouldn't go crazy with him. I get it to the Jets and the Jets are a really bad defense and Travis ETN just scored as the number one running back on the entire slate last week against them, but he did that on the back of three receiving touchdowns. And even if Aric Esté is like the starter, quote unquote, I think he will be taken out on every receiving down possible and it'll be like a 60% snap share at most that he ends up getting. So if you need to start Audrey Estay, I get it. But I wouldn't be too crazy about starting him.
Kamani Vidal, my next rated running back here, 60% of the snaps for the Chargers the last two games while Hampton has been ramping up. If that continues, he'll carve out 12 to 15 touches against the Dallas Cowboys who are one of the easiest rushing defenses in the league. So, even though he hasn't really had great fantasy production the last two games, he has been getting touches. You see 14 carries and three targets in week 14 with Hampton coming back. 12 carries and and one target in week 13 or in week 15 against the Kansas City Chiefs. If he gets 12 to 15 touches against the Cowboys, he can absolutely be a flex play.
And then Kyle Manangi closing out this tier is my last guy that I want to talk about. Again, he's got to find the end zone in order to be relevant because the the Packers are a brutal matchup. But again, the Bears can run the ball against anybody and maybe Micah Parsons makes a difference.
The final tier of running backs, I won't really go through these guys in depth. Kareem Hunt, Chris Rodriguez, Emanuel Wilson. Even if, and this is I'm ranking Emanuel Wilson here, assuming Josh Jacobs plays. So Emanuel Wilson gets an upgrade as like a really desperation flex option. But if Emanuel Wilson was the starter for Green Bay, I would rank him ahead of Tyrone Tracy, but ahead of Ken, but behind Kenneth Gainwell. That's where he would rank. He would rank RB23 for me. If you guys are wondering, I have Emanuel Wilson on my bench. I have Josh Jacobs in my starting lineup. If Jacobs is out, where would you start Emanuel Wilson? The answer is RB23. That is where he would be ranked, assuming Josh Jacobs is out for the game. But again, my projection is that Jacobs plays through it and Emanuel Wilson sees an upgrade. Uh Kareem Hunt, he gets the Tennessee Titans. They're 25th against the run. Um but you have Gardenner Mchu starting. So I I don't really want to start any Kansas City Chiefs running back knowing that Gardner Mchu is starting and Kareem Hunt has been pretty bad for the last three games. And then you also the only other like startable running back as far as like he's the starter for his team is Chris Rodriguez who was out last week with a groin injury is going to be back this week against the Philadelphia Eagles today. Um Jaka Crosky Merritt looked good in his relief. Maybe they give him more touches as a result. Again, I don't want to [ __ ] with any Washington Commanders running back because yes, Chris Rodriguez has been the guy that you wanted when he's been healthy, but Bill looked pretty good in that game and it's possible they give him more touches and then Blake Cororm, Chuba Hubard, and Jordan Mason are all like number two backs who have some spike week appeal. Of course, Corm found the end zone on Thursday. Chuba Hubard could do the same on Sunday. Jordan Mason could do the same on Sunday as well.
So, those are my top 40 running backs for week 16. Good luck to everybody in your fantasy football matchups. If I've helped you this season, we've been doing this every single week. I haven't I didn't just show up in week 16 and decide to make running back rankings. We've been here every single week evaluating every single slate for matchups that matter for running back tier list. If you guys have enjoyed the content this season, leave a like. Make sure you subscribe to the channel for the offseason content which will be coming. Of course, NFL draft stuff. We'll be getting right into prospect models, dynasty rookie drafts, dynasty team reviews, all that good stuff available over on flockfantasy.com. You can use the promo code FSE to sign up for a free trial today. If your 7-day free trial, if you started it today, it would end next week. If you signed up for an annual next week, you'd be covered through the entire off season from rookie content, dynasty content into the reddraft season into the inseason content next year and all the way until week 17. When you think about it, getting an annual subscription week 17 of the season is maybe the best time you can get it because you would be covered for the entire football calendar from this week to the end of the season next year. So, that is something to keep in mind. Annual subscriptions also get a free team review live on the channel if you guys want to check that out. You can get a team review of your dynasty teams. You can save that team review voucher for whenever you want to use it. Maybe you want to save it for your rookie draft. Maybe you want to save it for your reddraft leagues. Whatever the case is, you can use it at any point in time. So, um, with that being said, check that out down below in the pinned comment. But peace out and I'll talk to you soon.