Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope that you've had a wonderful weekend. I hope that you know, you know, today was good for you. I actually hope you don't trade, but of course, I know some of you guys traded already and, you know, probably made profit, some didn't. Either way, it's okay as long as you use your mind. It's fine, right? We're not here to, you know, win everything. We're here to win, you know, more than we lose, right? We're here to eat or losing trades. That's what we are. We're professional risk managers, right? That's what it is. When you shouldn't be in a rush, you shouldn't be in a rush because why? Why are you rushing? You have no need to be rushing, right? And I know that sounds a way, but that's just, you know, the truth, right?
So on my screen right now, you guys can see, hold on, let me make sure that it's recording. It is. Okay, good. My screen, you guys can see the economic calendar, right? And I posted on. So if you're not on, I would urge you to go on, right? There's an app, a mobile app. I've heard like, you know, like 10% of you guys complain about it. I don't have any complaints myself and of course, it will be getting better over time, right? It's new, it's brand new. Like we're like one of the first, you know, group of people to be on the app, right? They literally, you know, fast-tracked everything for us, literally, right? I had a meeting with the CEO. I talked to, you know, the technicians and the coders, you know, all of those people that work with W and, you know, they're great people in my opinion, right? So yeah, that's that. We will be making changes and every, most of the change will be changes will be coming from the inputs are the, you know, criticism of you guys, right? So if you don't like something and you know, they're literally in our chats, they see what you don't like and they just change it, just like that, right? Currently, they've built something, you know, kind of solid so far and, you know, it's working. So, you know, let's stop talking about that and let's go straight into what you're here for, right?
On the screen, you can see the economic calendar, right? Monday, no news events. Tuesday, no news events. What does that mean, right? You can see that I opted to not live stream yesterday. While was that? I did not expect volatility and I did not even expect sequential SMT, right? I did not expect any expansion of price today. Why is that? You're telling me that there's a way that you can know if SMT will form or not? Of course, there is. I don't know why I just like told you guys that, but, you know, we got into that. But yeah, today we had no, you know, you know, large input of volatility to the marketplace, right? There was not, there's nothing like that today. There was no movement, no large movements. And this is mostly due to the fact that we have, you know, the index futures of all-time highs. You know, usually whenever prices like this, the volatility is low unless we have, you know, high impact news events like CPI or FOMC, NFP, which, you know, there's a particular, you know, way to know when SM, you know, the SM SMT divergence for non-farm payroll is, you know, higher probability when it will reverse, you know, literally just, you know, counting the time that it took to, you know, run liquidity or absorb liquidity, right? And we will get to that. So yeah, tomorrow, well, you know, if we're looking at, you know, quarterly theory, it's already Tuesday, right? Because the days begin with the Asian session, right? So Tuesday, which is the, the upcoming trading day, you can see on the screen that we do not have any, you know, news events whatsoever, no high impact news events, right? USD high impact news events whatsoever. And this is due to the fact that we have, you know, CPI on Wednesday, right? That will be the, you know, volatility for the week, right? There will be a lot of volatility then and it will, you know, be evident in which direction price should go if we have, you know, sequential SMT, you know, during the, you know, 90-minute cycles or above, right? And the, this is important, right? Now, what I'm saying, and the lower the cycle that it happens before CPI, and this is specifically for CPI, right? The lower the sequential SMT happens before CPI, the larger the expansion would be, right? So today, we did not expect volatility. Did we get volatility? No. Tomorrow, you know, still, we don't expect volatility, right? And this is not, you know, you know, normal per, you know, per se. This is not completely normal. There are times, of course, when you have, you know, volatility before CPI during the week, but that is usually on Monday, right? When we have the Monday expansion model, right? Whenever you have, you know, a cracking correlation between the high of the previous Friday and the current Monday, right? So that would be sequential SMT and that would usually happen. This usually happens in week two. We have either, you know, expansion on Monday or there's nothing on Monday and nothing on Tuesday, then we, then we have expansion on Wednesday, right? But Tuesday is usually that day where, you know, you don't really do anything, right? So yes, Tuesday, we, we, we, we will more than likely have the high low to we for Tuesday. There will be a lot of volatility, right? On Tuesday. And if not Tuesday, not Tuesday, my bad, on Wednesday for CPI, the higher low of the week will, you know, more likely form on Wednesday. And for some asset classes, right, which, you know, this would reflect in price where we will have sequential SMT between Wednesday and Thursday. We'll have the low and the high of the week form on Thursday. And then Friday, we would have, you know, price, you know, do what it usually does, return within the range, which is, you know, very important, you know, for week one. So the range of week one, like this is something that you guys need, you guys need to know. Usually, you have the first four days of the week, right? It, you know, it will expand, contract, you know, return within the range, expand, expand, or it will just, you know, just keep going, right? But due to the fact that we have non-farm payroll, right? On the first Friday of every single month, right? Whenever we have the a full week, an NFP falls on that Friday of that week of week one, it's very easy to know what to expect, right? And why is this? What is the function of Friday? The function of Friday is to return into the weekly range, right? That's what Friday is for, for price to return into the weekly range, where weekly range or, you know, attempt to do so, right? And, you know, in a way, you can say that Friday, you know, more times than not, will form the high and low of the week, right? Because the week will have a high and it will have a low, right? It's not just a high of the week and then that's it. It will have a low before we have a high, before it has a high, right? You can have the high of the week form on Wednesday, and then you have the low of the week form on Friday. Isn't that true? Yes, it is.
So now, right, we will look at the Forex triad currently, right? We had expansion last week, crazy expansion, right? Non-farm payroll covered the entire weekly range and more, even, you know, some of our, you know, within the US dollar, we covered the entire weekly range and the one before. Look at the price right now, and this is specifically for non-farm payroll, right? And, you know, we, this week right now, we're focusing on week one, right? So Wednesday, we will, you know, reflect upon what we're talking about right now. All right, you can see that here. What do we have? You can see that we have SMT right here, but they, it's not sequential. I know, but how could we get this to be high probability? Right now, first of all, you need to understand that non-farm payroll, you know, and sometimes CPI, sometimes even FOMC, but FOMC, this happens, you know, less time during FOMC than CPI and non-farm payroll, right? So now we're talking about the news events that they tell us that we should be scared of, right? We're talked about the news events that we're talk, you know, that they tell us to don't trade. You can't trade this. It's impossible to predict the movement of, you know, the volatility that these news events bring. You can see that here. This is just a wick, right? And now we have capital.com, and we will actually, you know, reflect upon capital.com's data for the US dollar index and TVC, right? Something that we've taught already, you know, like two, three months ago, I believe, right? So here you can see that literally, and you can check this for yourself, right? Within the first two seconds, right? This wick formed. Do you understand? And this is important, right? Because if this took more than five, you know, seconds, it would be different. So this right now is very, very, very high frequency. This liquidity run is very high frequency. So whenever we have like a, you know, running liquidity that lasts, lasts more than 15 seconds to a minute for most assets, and this has everything, you know, to do with time, right? Due to the fact that this liquidity run right here, and, you know, you can see my cursor, I'm, you know, talking about the US dollar index right now, right? This happened in literally two seconds. This wick formed in two seconds. So once the news release happened, this wick front right here, right? Whenever you see that happen, and then within the Euro, you know, we have no type of SMT. And it matters not if it's sequential or not. If we have a liquid, if we have SMT for form with wicks within one to, you know, two seconds, and that's what it is. Two seconds. It's one to two seconds. You know, dollar index grabbed liquidity here. Euro failed to do so. British pound failed to do so, right? Do you see that? So if you go down to your second charts, you'll see this right here. This is specifically for really high impact news events such as what NFP, which usually happens during when the first week of the month, you know, always happens on the first Friday of the month. When is CPI? The second week of the month, right? Usually happens on either Tuesday or Wednesday. So each high impact news event, and when I say high news event, I'm not referencing to just red folders. I'm talking about news events which change the trajectory of the order flow within all asset classes. News events which, you know, give you these types of moves. Is it possible to, you know, catch a, you know, non-farm payroll within two to five seconds? It is. Can you do it? Of course, you can, right? Right? And by me giving you this information right now, you will see, you know, some of you guys, you know, even the next time we have a certain high, catching these moves, and then it'll be like, wow, we caught the wick. We caught a one to two second candle. It is possible, and you can do it, and I'm giving you what you need to do that right now, right?
So here, let me get the TVC data for the US dollar index. So comparing the US dollar index, right, to, you know, itself, but from another provider, you know, data provider. And listen, they all work together. They're all linked. The reason why we have different data providers for certain assets, can you guess why? They just want it to seem as if, you know, they don't own everything. And of course, you know, capital.com, Capital.com or dot for the US dollar index, you know, it's more accurate due to the fact that it relies on the raw data from the futures market for the US dollar, right? So here we have the, we have capital.com data. And here over here, to the, you know, utmost left, we have the TVC data, the one that we I usually use uses whenever we have a, you know, difference in, you know, either the body of the candle, you know, the he, the size of the candle, the length of the candle, whatever you may call it, the size of the wick, anything, you know, like that. If there's a precision swing point between both of these, and this is important, we will usually have a reversal of price. And this right here will affect the entire market. It's not just the Forex market, right? It will have an impact on all markets. Here you can see that price did not go below this low right here. And remember, this has to happen because this right here, as you can see, is not sequential, right? This low right here is from the first quarter of the week, right? Monday. And this low was Friday, right? This is not sequential, but it is a type of, you know, special SMT. This is due to the fact that we have the Forex quarters from each other within the week. Are, you know, I wouldn't call them quarters due to the fact that it's happened on Friday, it's not actually a quarter, right? But the Forex partitions, right? So, so right now, we're going outside of quarterly theory. The week comprises of five days. Right? Quarterly theory stems from Monday to T to Thursday. But now we are talking about five days. And this is what doubling theory is. It it stretches the bounds of quarterly theory. It does what quarterly theory can't do, but it does what quarterly theory does do, right? So the four, this days, right? And, you know, as I said before, within each quarter of the year, there are 13 months. So it will be, you know, a deciding factor there in, you know, a way for us to decide whether we have a high probability cracking correlation or not, whereas, you know, we would have, for example, a correlation between the first week of the quarter and the 13th week of the quarter, right? And yes, sounds confusing, but, you know, eventually we'll get to that. But let's, I don't know why I keep, you know, giving extra information which I should not, right? So here, and you can see that well, you will see that this is, you know, this usually happens, you know, on days such as NFP, CPI, and FOMC, right? So here on this candle right here, the candle before, you know, where we have this large expansion. And now I need you guys to be looking at the first chart, which is the US dollar index, at the fourth one, right? Which is also the US index, right? Where we had the expansion candle. You can see that one of them took the low for the capital.com data or capital.com data. The TVC did not. But candle before that, what happened? What did you see? What was there? There was a precision swing point between the two data providers of the US dollar index. And you got to understand, all of this is controlled, right? All of this data is controlled. It's not separate companies. It's the same person that owns all of these companies, the same group of people that owns everything, right? And this usually happens within, you know, as I've said before, one to two seconds. So if you go on your charts and you go down to the seconds, you'll see that literally after one to two seconds, this wick formed on the capital.com data. It did not form on the TVC data. So after one to two seconds, you see that wick form. What happens? That is a high frequency trade. Yes, price reversed. And this is why, you know, let me go here. This is why I remember, you know, last week, what do we expect? We, first of all, we expected all of this, right? We expected, you know, this right here. And looking at the, the dollar index right now, price over here reversed. But price was here. We expected price to take this low. Price was consolidating. What usually happens during consolidation? Two things. We have an accumulation of price. But when is there usually an accumulation of price? Is there another type of correlation that we should learn about? Is there another type, you know, another way to decipher when we will have expansion? Could there be delayed expansion between certain triads? Yes, most, you know, importantly between the Forex triad and the index futures triad. So there will be time, right, where you will have, and, you know, this is us, you know, trying to go into the index futures triad, you know, data. We'll look at that very soon, which is why we're talking about this right now. There will be times when you will have the FX triads, you know, consolidating for a few days or, you know, a few quarters or a few, you know, partitions of time. And there will be, and meanwhile, that's happening, so you'll have the US dollar index, the Euro USD, and the Great British pound consolidated. You will have the index futures expanding at the same time, right? This would be seen as delayed trajectory. So the triad will usually expand for its next move. And we'll look at that right now. Firstly, I will add the S&P 500 here so you can see, right? So you can see that here, while we had price consolidating, you know, within the FX triad, we had price expanding where within the S&P 500. And this, you know, happened within the S&P 500 and NASDAQ and the, and even other indices, you know, from different exchanges, right? But for now, we're focusing here, right? And here, where we had the S&P 500 consolidating, what happened? We had the Great British pound, the Euro, and the US dollar expanded, right? So whenever you see the US dollar or, you know, the Forex triad on a whole, you know, expanding, but the S&P, the NASDAQ or Dow, you know, not, you know, following what that's doing, what can you expect for the next move? There will be, you know, price doing the opposite in both, in both triads, which is not, you know, going in the opposite direction, but one will be expanding and one will be consolidated. When does that end? That ends when you have price, you know, doing what it's doing right now. So that phase has come, has came to an halt right now. Right now, we have price doing the same thing. We have price doing what it's supposed to do, right? And this is something that usually, you know, confuses people. Why is the US dollar expanding? Why is the Euro expanding? The Great British pound expanding, but, you know, the indices are doing nothing? This is why. And when you understand this, it gets easier because now you know that, okay, the next move, I know what to do because if the S&P 500 is doing nothing right now, but the Great British pound is doing something right now, that means that the next move will be a large swing move for the index futures. What do you understand? This has to do with, you know, time and a whole. This is just time. I, what is it? It is not, you know, specific to quarters right now. It is specific for, you know, of time. We will get into, but for now, you need to understand this. Right? There are times when you have the index futures and the FX triad moving in the same direction. Right? That's good. But there are times when they don't do that. But but whenever they don't do that, that's the time. Those are the times when you should focus on price because you're really going to get an explosive move in one of two of the asset classes. Right? Delayed expansion. Listen, the normal person cannot comprehend this. I'm telling you. And now, you know, it's quickly go over the cuz like all of the sauce was like dropped right there. And if you ex, you can't explain this to someone. Like literally, I would want to see like a new person try to understand this. They can't. It's impossible. Like you don't know how, how, you know, how much experience you have. You don't know. It's like you don't really understand because you think that it's nothing, but try to talk to someone else. You'll blow their minds, man. Literally, they'll be like, really? I can't believe this. What the hell? Literally, that's what it will be like.
So here, right, to the left, as usual, we have the S&P 500. In the center, we have the NASDAQ. And way over to the right, we have the Dow. Right? I posted this chart. I believe it was it yesterday? Yes, I did. Posted a chart yesterday, right? With the main liquidity pools that we should be focusing on. Someone says I'm not speaking to anyone about this. Doesn't matter. They won't understand. I promise you. So you can see we have buy side and sell side liquidity labeled right over here for the Dow. Hopefully, you can see these faint gray, you know, lines. You know, this is an imbalance right here. We currently have, you know, high time frame sequential SMT between all, between these two assets. Unless price runs above this high or, you know, these highs, you shouldn't be, you know, focused on doing anything, right? We more than likely have price run above these highs than fall back within the range. That's, you know, what I'm, you know, actually looking for. We are all-time high. So price isn't as clear to read as possible, but we can see the weakness in the market, right? We can see that right now, due to the fact that, you know, the Dow is where it is, right? In discount, right? From this high to this low, the discount. And we have the E-mini in premium. And the E-mini S&P. So we have the E-mini S&P and E-mini NASDAQ in premium, while the Dow is in discount, right? So this is not high probability conditions of all, but I know that people will trade it and, you know, probably make something from it. But personally, you know, I am not interested until I see, you know, a two-stage sequential SMT. So right now, we already have one stage of sequential SMT, you know, within the yearly cycle. But I would like to see this happen within either the monthly or the weekly cycle, right? This type of price action is, is not normal. It's just due to the fact that we have, you know, all of these, this war news going on. We have countries surrounding countries, you know, we have countries pushing their, you know, vehicles of destruction towards other countries and stuff like that, which is nothing to really worry about, right? This is, you know, completely normal. This is how humans are. This will forever be happening. And as long as you, you know, keep yourself out of, you know, certain countries, you'll be okay. You'll be fine. So for now, on my screen, you can see where buy side liquidity is and where sell side liquidity is. When price runs above either this buy side or below this sell side liquidity, we should expect some form of reversal, which will be evident before the fact by sequential SMT, right? That's what you'll be looking for. While if price runs above this high, these highs are, you know, this low. So for now, what are we doing? Sitting on our hands. Is there anything to do? Should I just buy right now? No. The see price clear. It's not. It's definitely not. When price was here, now, and now we're looking at the S&P 500. When price was here on the formation of this candle, expected price to go above this high, right? Why was that? And why was it so easy? This is due to the fact that, you know, we were within a range here. We're not within a range, right? And we were within a range right here. Was was within another range, right? So it was easy for us to expect this expansion. Now, it's not easy to know what to expect, but it's still possible.
So I hope that you guys found something useful from this. I think I've been going on for a while. I definitely hope that I recorded this. I think I did, but if not, I'll be upset that I have to do it again. Have so much things to do. It's insane, actually, but we get it done. And of course, we will be back this Wednesday at 6:00 PM Eastern Standard Time, right? So this Wednesday, we will be back and we will be building upon these basic building blocks that we just laid, right? So again, I hope that you had, you know, a few ideas pop out at you from this stream right now. And we will definitely, you know, be touching upon this information again because this was just, you know, some building blocks being laid, right? They had, there hasn't even been, you know, any adhesives placed on the blocks. So they're still weak, right? I'll be back Wednesday, 6:00 PM Eastern Standard Time. So I hope that you guys go over the stream, right? Understand that this is the reason why the markets move. Understand why it's important to be patient. Understand, you know, why some assets expand, why some contract, why some consolidate at the same time. And I wish you, you know, I wish you success. I wish that you do what most of you guys, a lot of you guys are doing. For anyone that hasn't found their, you know, footing within the industrials yet, you know, some of you, it's purely psychological. Some of you guys, you know, it's not really technical, right? Because some of you guys, you get it, you understand what you're looking for, where you're just afraid. Don't be afraid. And yeah, that's it for now. I will know see you guys, talk to you guys on Wednesday again, 6:00 PM Eastern Standard Time. And I will post this again for, you know, some of you guys that probably click off the video before it. And so you don't know. Have a wonderful, you know, week by.