Transcription
Hello everyone who follows the TIG Watch channel. This Monday morning, July 27, 2026, the global gold market is entering one of the most closely watched weeks by investors worldwide in months. As soon as the Asian market opened this morning, the global gold price jumped by over 1%. Simultaneously, the world is counting down to the meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee, which will take place on Wednesday night, July 29th, U.S. time. This is considered one of the most significant events of the year for the direction of gold prices. What further heightens the tense atmosphere is the possibility that the Fed will reverse course and raise interest rates, instead of keeping them unchanged as the market had almost entirely believed. The probability has increased from 1 in 10 to nearly 4 in 10 within less than two weeks. This level of volatility will inevitably send shockwaves to the prices of gold bars and gold jewelry in Thailand. Whether you are someone who already holds gold as savings, are thinking of gradually accumulating gold in your portfolio, or simply want to understand the global economic overview and stay up-to-date, today we will delve into every aspect, covering all issues, including the latest gold prices, global market factors, domestic factors, technical analysis, perspectives from global investment banks like JP Morgan and UBS, and even analysis and forecasts for the direction of gold prices in the coming period. Please stay tuned until the end of the clip, as the information at the end may significantly influence your financial decisions. Before we get into the in-depth details, let's start with the latest gold prices that everyone has been waiting for. In the global market, the spot gold price, or Gold Spot per ONS, this morning, according to the report from the Trading View platform via the XAU USD pair of OANDA, was approximately $4,098.78-$4,098.78 U.S. dollars per ounce, an increase of $45.935 or 1.13%, since the market opened. This represents a rather strong upward adjustment in the morning of a week filled with risks ahead. Looking back at the past week, the global gold price fluctuated within the range of approximately $4,000-$4,200 per ounce, having previously risen to a two-week high of $4,165.87-$4,165.87 on Wednesday, before pulling back due to the sharp surge in oil prices from the tense situation in the Middle East, which we will discuss in detail in the global market factors section. As for gold prices in Thailand, based on the latest announcement from the Gold Traders Association via the website goldaders.org.th, which is the standard reference for gold prices in Thailand, the closing price before entering this week, Saturday, July 25th, was: for 96.5% gold bars, the buy-back price was 64,600 baht per baht weight, and the selling price was 64,800 baht per baht weight. For gold jewelry, the selling price was 66,600 baht per baht weight, and the buy-back price was approximately 63,300 baht. The buy-back price for gold jewelry is always lower than for gold bars because the making charges and labor costs are deducted from the pure gold price. For 1-salung gold, it is approximately 16,200 baht. These prices do not include making charges, which vary by gold shop. Therefore, it is recommended that you inquire about the exact price from the gold shop again before making any actual transaction. Looking at the overall past week, according to the report from the Gold Research Center (GRC), domestic gold bar prices moved within the range of 63,850 to 66,600 baht per baht weight, closing the week at 64,800 baht, an increase of 800 baht compared to the previous week's closing price of 64,050 baht. This reflects that domestic gold is still in a short-term uptrend, despite significant intra-week volatility. Another indispensable factor for analyzing gold prices in Thailand is the Thai Baht to U.S. Dollar exchange rate. Towards the end of July, the Thai Baht has been continuously weakening, trading at approximately 33.6-33.8 baht per dollar, which is the weakest level since April 2022. Viewers who have been following consistently will know that when the Thai Baht weakens, the price of gold in Thailand, which is referenced to global gold prices in U.S. dollars, tends to increase because more Thai Baht is needed to exchange for the same amount of gold. This is why we sometimes see gold prices in Thailand move in the opposite direction of global gold prices at certain times. Now that we have an overview of today's gold prices, we will next delve into the global market factors that are currently driving gold prices, which are the key focus of this week's analysis. The main focus of this week is the U.S. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will be held for two days from Tuesday, July 28th, to Wednesday, July 29th, U.S. time. The interest rate decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on Wednesday, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 PM. When converted to Thailand time, this press conference will be in the early morning of Thursday, July 29th. This information is directly referenced from the meeting calendar published on the official website of the U.S. Federal Reserve, federalreserve.gov. The current U.S. policy interest rate range is 3.50-3.75%. The Fed has maintained this rate since the meeting on June 17th, with a unanimous decision, citing that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a good pace, the labor market remains stable, but inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2%. What is interesting and a hot topic now is the CME FedWatch Tool, a tool used by investors worldwide to track the probability of the Fed's interest rate decisions, calculated from the prices of 30-day federal funds rate futures. You can track this information yourself on the website cmegroup.com under the fedwatch section. The alarming figure is that on July 15th, this tool estimated the probability of the Fed raising interest rates at this meeting to be only 10.7%. However, just one week later, this figure more than tripled to approximately 34.7%. And most recently, as of July 25th, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged is approximately 61.3%. This means the market is assigning a nearly 39% probability to the possibility of a surprise Fed rate hike. This represents a very rapid and drastic shift in market sentiment in months, from a situation where no one even expected the Fed to raise interest rates this year. The question is, what has caused the probability of a rate hike to surge so quickly? The main answer comes from the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran throughout the past month. Peace talks, which once held hope, have collapsed, along with news of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most crucial routes for crude oil transportation, accounting for about one-fifth of the daily volume of crude oil transported by sea worldwide. Additionally, the Houthi group in Yemen attacked oil tankers in the Red Sea, causing shipping insurance premiums on that route to double in a single day and pushing Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel for the first time since May. Rising oil prices directly contribute to inflationary pressures. Furthermore, the PCE inflation index, the inflation measure most closely watched by the Fed, rose to 4.1% for May, and the core PCE inflation index stood at 3.4%, the highest level in years and more than double the Fed's 2% target. There is also inflationary pressure from rapid expansion in investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, as well as new U.S. import tariffs of 10-12.5% on various trading partners. All of these factors have pushed the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds to a 17-month high, while 10-year Treasury bonds have reached their highest level since January 2024. Viewers might wonder why the risk of a Fed rate hike is such a big deal for the gold market. The answer is that gold is an asset that pays no interest or dividends. Therefore, as real interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold also increases. Some investors may choose to move their money from gold to higher-yielding government bonds instead. This is the basic mechanism that explains why news of interest rate hikes often pressures gold prices, while geopolitical concerns like wars or political uncertainty often support gold prices as a safe-haven asset. Equally interesting is that this is a crucial test of credibility for the new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, who took office only since the June meeting. The market does not yet have enough information to clearly understand his decision-making approach as it did with previous Fed Chairs. Therefore, regardless of whether the outcome of this meeting is a rate hold or a rate hike, Mr. Powell's demeanor and statements at the press conference will be as important as the interest rate figures themselves. Foreign media outlets like Bloomberg and Reuters have reported in unison that most analysts still believe the Fed will choose to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting, but acknowledge that the decision is more finely balanced than previously assessed. Reuters reported on July 23rd that spot gold prices fell 0.6% to $4,033.39, after reaching a two-week high the previous day, reflecting the market's sensitivity to every movement in the Middle East situation and statements from Fed officials. Looking at a slightly longer-term perspective, gold prices this year reached an all-time high of approximately $5,559-$5,559 per ounce on January 28, 2026, before entering a consolidation phase and declining by about 27-28% from that peak. The main reason for this was the market's shift in its view on the Fed's interest rate direction, from expecting several rate cuts this year to anticipating a rate hold or even a rate hike instead. Therefore, what we are seeing now is gold in a consolidation phase, finding a new equilibrium after a strong rally late last year and early this year, which is normal for the price cycle of all asset classes. Now that we have seen the global market overview, we will focus on factors specific to Thailand, which have some differences from the global market. While gold prices in Thailand are primarily based on global gold prices, there are specific factors that need to be considered, especially the Thai Baht to U.S. Dollar exchange rate. As mentioned earlier, the Thai Baht is currently weakening, trading at approximately 33.6-37.8 baht per dollar, which is the weakest level in over a year. Factors pressuring the Thai Baht recently come from various sources, including the still fragile Thai economy, high household debt, sluggish domestic consumption, slowing demand from China, increased regional trade competition, as well as structural issues like a declining labor force and a slower-than-expected tourism recovery. In terms of monetary policy, the Bank of Thailand (BOT), whose information you can follow on the website bot.or.th, continues to pursue a much more accommodative monetary policy than the Fed. Previously, it lowered the policy interest rate to 1%, the lowest level since late 2023, with a unanimous decision. This reflects that the BOT prioritizes supporting economic growth over concerns about short-term inflation, unlike the Fed's stance, which remains primarily cautious about inflation. This difference in monetary policy between the two countries is another factor that pressures the Thai Baht to weaken against the U.S. Dollar. And when the Thai Baht weakens, gold prices in Thailand tend to receive additional support, even at times when global gold prices are declining. Regarding the Gold Research Center's outlook for the week of July 27-31, it clearly states that the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates at 3.50-3.75% at this meeting, but the probability of a rate hike is increasing due to inflationary pressures, oil prices, and bond yields. Therefore, it is necessary to closely monitor statements and signals regarding policy direction in the September meeting. Additionally, the Bank of England (BOE) will also hold a meeting on July 30th in the same week, which may affect the movements of currencies and safe-haven assets worldwide. From the perspective of gold shop operators and the gold jewelry industry in Thailand, such high volatility in gold prices has significantly changed consumer behavior. Many have chosen to postpone purchasing gold jewelry for wear during periods of strong price increases. Conversely, there is still continuous demand for gold bars for savings and diversification, especially among investors who view gold as a hedge against inflation and long-term economic uncertainty. This behavior aligns with the trend of gold purchases by central banks worldwide, which continue to accumulate gold. Next, we will look at technical analysis, another tool that investors commonly use for decision-making. Please note that this section is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation for trading. When examining the daily XAU USD gold price chart, it can be seen that gold prices are currently in a consolidation phase after declining from their all-time high in January. A key support level that many analysts emphasize is around $4,000, a psychological level that prices have tested multiple times in the past month. If prices break significantly below this level, the next support levels to watch are around $3,960 and $3,800, respectively. Conversely, if prices can hold above support, near-term resistance will be around $4,140-$4,200, a zone of heavy trading in the past. Beyond that is the significant resistance at $4,300, close to the 50-day moving average. Finally, the psychological level of $4,500, if prices can hold firmly above this level, could signal the end of this consolidation phase and open the way for prices to test the $5,000 level again in the future. In terms of technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is in the mid-range, around 43-45 points, not yet in overbought or oversold territory. This reflects that the market is still in a state of indecision, waiting for new factors to provide direction. The MACD indicator, which measures price momentum, also shows mixed signals. The histogram is flattening, and the downward momentum is weakening, but there is no clear reversal signal yet. The overall technical picture at this moment is a market waiting for clarity from fundamental factors, especially the Fed meeting outcome this week, which is likely to determine the clear direction of gold prices in the coming period. Viewers should understand that technical analysis is merely a tool for evaluating past price behavior and is not a tool that can predict the future with 100% accuracy. Each analyst may provide different support and resistance levels based on their calculation methods and timeframes. Therefore, this information should be used only as one component of a comprehensive analysis and should not be the sole factor in decision-making. Now, we arrive at the topic many of you have been waiting for: the latest perspectives from global investment banks, which will provide a clearer picture of medium to long-term gold price forecasts. Again, these figures are merely the analytical forecasts of each institution and are not guarantees that prices will actually move as predicted. Starting with Goldman Sachs, one of the banks with the most positive outlook on gold, on June 20th, analysts Thomas and Danuen revised their year-end 2026 gold price target down from $5,400 to $4,900 per ounce. They cited two main reasons: the slowdown in inflows into gold ETFs, including outflows from ETFs in Asia for the first time since August 2023, and Goldman Sachs' removal of all expected Fed rate cuts this year, postponing them to June and December 2027. Goldman Sachs also stated that if the Fed decides to raise interest rates in this meeting, gold prices could fall to as low as $4,400. However, the bank maintains a positive long-term structural view, pointing out that central bank gold purchases of around 60 tons per month remain a strong supporting factor. They also mentioned the phenomenon called "debasement," or the demand for gold to hedge against sovereign fiscal deficits, which is a new form of demand not seen in previous gold cycles. For the long-term target up to 2027, Goldman Sachs still projects a range of $5,400-$5,600 per ounce. JP Morgan, whose full analysis you can find at jpmorgan.com in the Global Research section, also has an interesting shift in perspective. On July 3rd, the bank reduced its Q4 2026 gold price target by approximately 25%, from a previous estimate of around $6,000 to $4,500 per ounce. They also revised their Q3 average gold price forecast down to $4,300, citing weakened demand from key buyers and gold prices' increased sensitivity to rising real yields. JP Morgan calculates that for every 1 basis point increase in the real 10-year Treasury yield since late February, gold prices have fallen by approximately $20 per ounce. However, the bank reaffirms its long-term bullish structural view, expecting a new bull cycle in 2027, driven by global central bank reserve diversification and the normalization of real yields. UBS, in its latest report published at the end of June, set a 12-month gold price target of approximately $5,200 per ounce, remaining among the more positive outlooks compared to other banks. For the long-term target up to 2027, UBS projects around $5,400, similar to JP Morgan's outlook for the same timeframe. This indicates that while short-term views among banks may differ significantly, most share a positive long-term outlook for gold. The most interesting aspect when comparing the views of these three banks is the historically wide range of short-term price targets, from a worst-case scenario of $4,400 by Goldman Sachs to $5,200 by UBS. This is a significantly wider range than usual, reflecting that even world-class professional analysts have significantly different opinions at this time. This serves as a good warning sign that the gold market is currently filled with high uncertainty, and no one can definitively predict price direction with 100% certainty. Based on all the information presented, we will summarize this into an analysis and forecast for the direction of gold prices in the coming period. We emphasize that this section is merely a future forecast based on currently available data, not a confirmation of what will actually happen, and it does not constitute any investment advice. In a scenario that is positive for gold prices, if the Fed chooses to keep interest rates at 3.50-3.75% as most of the market still expects with a probability of about 61%, along with a cautious and unhurried tone from the Chair's statement, or if the Middle East conflict shows signs of easing and oil prices decline, it is possible that gold prices will recover to test resistance levels at $4,140-$4,200. If these resistance levels are broken, prices could move on to test the $4,300 zone next. Conversely, in a scenario that is negative for gold prices, if the Fed decides to surprise the market with a rate hike at this meeting, which currently has a probability of about 38-39% according to CME FedWatch data, or if the Middle East situation intensifies further, pushing oil prices even higher and impacting the inflation outlook for the coming period, it is possible that gold prices will be pressured to test the key support level at $4,000 again. If this support level cannot withstand the selling pressure, it could open the way for prices to fall to test the $3,960 zone, or even $3,800 in a more severe case. What viewers should pay special attention to in the next few days is the Fed Chair's statement at the post-meeting press conference, especially any signals regarding the policy direction for the August meeting, where the market currently assigns a nearly 80% probability of a rate hike. Additionally, close attention must be paid to developments in the Middle East situation, as well as the direction of crude oil prices, all of which are key variables that will determine the direction of gold prices in both the global and domestic markets during this week and into early August. For gold prices in Thailand, the level to watch is whether the selling price of gold bars can firmly hold above 65,000 baht, which could signal a continued uptrend. However, if it falls below 64,000 baht, it may enter a short-term correction phase. Before concluding today's clip, let's briefly discuss recommendations for viewers. For those considering gold as part of their investment portfolio, the most important thing is to view gold as a tool for diversifying the overall portfolio, not as a place to invest all your money in a single asset class. Many analysts often discuss the concept of diversified asset allocation, where gold is only a portion of the total portfolio, alongside other asset classes such as stocks, bonds, or deposits. The appropriate allocation will vary depending on financial goals, investment horizons, and the level of risk each individual can tolerate, as there is no one-size-fits-all formula. Viewers should always remember that gold prices are highly volatile and can move up or down rapidly, especially in weeks with significant events like Fed meetings. Past returns are not indicative or a guarantee of future returns. Before making any investment or trading decisions in gold in any form, it is recommended that you thoroughly research information, follow news from reliable sources, and consider consulting with a licensed financial expert or investment advisor to obtain advice tailored to your specific financial situation and goals. We reiterate that all content in this clip is for educational purposes only and provides knowledge on gold market analysis. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to buy or sell gold. The Thai Go Watch channel does not guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts presented, and all investment decisions carry risks that you must consider and be responsible for yourself. Finally, we thank everyone for taking the time to watch this gold market analysis clip for Monday, July 27, 2026, until the end. If today's content has been beneficial to you in any way, please remember to like and share it with friends who are interested in gold. Most importantly, don't forget to subscribe to the Thai Go Watch channel and press the notification bell to avoid missing daily gold price analyses and important market updates, especially the Fed meeting outcome on Wednesday night, which will determine the direction of gold prices in the coming period. See you in the next clip. Goodbye.