Transcription
Alright, what do we do? Do we sell everything now? Do we wait for a retracement? Do we follow the advice of everyone we see on social media who have been saying for a week that we're going to 50,000 dollars? Are we going to make a new bullish extension on Bitcoin? Are we going to aim for a million on Bitcoin by 2027? We're going to answer some of these questions right now. You're really going to have to concentrate for 5 minutes because what we're experiencing right now is arguably the most important moment for Bitcoin and altcoins. It's an extremely difficult time. Many, many people are going through psychological torture, even depression. And my goal isn't to make clickbait videos for views; it's truly to guide you on what's happening. And this moment is absolutely pivotal.
So yes, there's a 9 out of 10 chance that right now you're losing money on your portfolio. Naturally, we only see people on the internet saying, "No, we caught the top here, we're shorting, everything's going well." The reality is completely different. The vast majority of the market is underwater. The vast majority of the market is scared, wondering what to do, asking themselves, "Are we really in a bear market? If so, should I capitulate? Should I sell everything?" And I'll come back in a year to follow the cycle once we've bottomed out and start a new cycle. In the very short term, we'll start by answering this question by noting something: something is happening here. Something is happening, and what's happening is that we've had a first bullish extension left by an FVG. Liquidity to be taken here, which we have come to take. There was a huge cluster of liquidations to be sought here. There is still about 1.33 billion up to 84,690. Yesterday, there were 3 billion. So, we've taken a large part of all of this at a time when it was extremely healthy to have a mini correction, take profits right here, and head in the other direction.
Looking at the open interest, we can also see that the zone we are currently in is a zone where many positions are opening for buying, obviously, given that the price is being pushed back up. And that's quite cool to observe. In the medium term, we could also see that this zone was the zone defended in the short term by shorters, in which they reinforced many positions. The day we break through this zone, I can tell you it will cause a major short squeeze, and we can see that the next zones for now are higher. The major zone being rather here around 113,000 to 114,000 dollars. So if we break through the zone we are in now, it will be a very good sign to go higher. But that's not all. Naturally, this data evolves over time. The data wasn't the same just two weeks ago. So, you have to follow this on a daily basis.
So, subscribe directly to the channel so I can show you everything and you won't miss any of the information you really need to watch. One point I'd like to talk to you about, which is extremely important, is liquidity. Why is it so important? Because we see a lot of things, particularly concerning this chart, which is the M2 Global Liquidity Index. We'll come back to it in a few seconds, but especially because liquidity is truly what matters most. Some will tell you that liquidity doesn't count. However, we know, and it's logical, that if we want money to enter our market, money must be created everywhere. If money is created everywhere, only a psychological mechanism at the institutional level will remain, which is as follows: a period of trouble linked to unstable monetary policies, linked to unstable geopolitics. If so, cash will be returned, if cash will be invested.
So, you know, we are currently experiencing a mini banking liquidity crisis, like the one we had in 2019. The Fed is indeed taking note of what's happening. It's still acting a bit too slowly in my opinion, but it is acknowledging that we are reaching a point of no return. That's why QT was announced to end today. That's why we have interest rate cuts that are increasingly priced in by the market, and all of this will serve to create liquidity. And this is truly a summary that I want you to keep in mind, which is the simplest. If there is liquidity creation, we can have altcoins and Bitcoin pumping. If there is no liquidity creation, Bitcoin and altcoins will never pump. So that's already a first point to note. And unfortunately, we can no longer observe this point thanks to this chart. This chart here, this line rather, is M2, so the money created by the 21 largest central banks in the world. And where this indicator has been very successful recently is precisely because Bitcoin followed the tops and bottoms with a few weeks' delay. I believe it was 8 to 12 weeks late, if I'm not mistaken. I believe it was around 8 to 12 weeks late, if I'm not mistaken. Yes, that's about right. 8 to 12 weeks. So, a 2 to 3 month delay for Bitcoin. Ultimately, it only worked twice when we look at it. Once here during this large distribution and accumulation range, and another time here at the top and bottom. And since then, we see that it's no longer working. We see that Bitcoin is no longer following this M2 at all, that this M2 is making new highs, and that, on the other hand, Bitcoin is completely decoupling from it.
And there's a point I'd like to discuss with you, which is extremely important, and it's part of the data you need to look at, far from everything they show you. The chart to look at for M2 is not this one, it's not this one because this one only reflects the money created by the 21 largest central banks in the world. It doesn't show you how much more money is being created compared to last year. How much less money is being created compared to last year, compared to 2023, compared to 2021 as well? Because the information we have from this M2 is that here, when we reached a peak on Bitcoin at around 120,000 dollars, the M2 was completely breaking records compared to the 2021 top. In 2021, as you can see right here, we were much lower. So the signal this M2 gives us is that we had a mega bull run, a truly mega bull run. Altcoins did incredible things. Bitcoin did incredible things, but there was much less money. We had massive QE, we had zero interest rates, but there was much less money compared to what the M2 shows us. And that's completely false. There's less money, much less even. And so we see that this M2 cannot be followed. What this M2 follows is strict monetary creation. That is to say, for decades, banks have been printing more and more money, again and again. They are certainly more indebted, but they print, they print, they print. So, at the M2 level, you have a phase that is growing over time. However, what we want to look at is indeed whether our banks and our central bank are creating more money than in previous years. And therefore, the correct chart to take is this one. You have here the real chart to consider, which shows a completely different story. We can see here in 2021, we had a liquidity creation that was simply gigantic. We see that the current levels are not at all those of 2021. This clearly confirms what I just told you, that indeed, there was much more money created then because there were many more stimulus measures. The chart we are following right now, and you'll see that if you zoom in, it follows roughly the same thing. It's not a chart in hyperbole like this. It's a chart that is in a "downtrend" (dénivele), meaning that since the end of the year, we've had a pump in liquidity then a drainage, a pump then a drainage, a pump then a drainage, and drainages that, in percentage terms of liquidity, bring the year-over-year growth back to almost 0%. We're not talking about very small drainages like this one, for example. We're talking about very massive inflows and outflows of liquidity globally.
A first factor that is again relevant is that Bitcoin follows a chart that is the same in a "downtrend" (dénivele). Here, we had an explosion, Bitcoin explodes hyperbolically. Here, we are in a "downtrend" (dénivele), we go up, we correct sharply. We go up, we correct, we go up, we correct, we go up, we correct. And this is totally logical. If liquidity withdraws from the market, the first market to suffer is the crypto market. On the other hand, when liquidity arrives, the last market to benefit is the crypto market. That's why the crypto market is one of the most difficult markets in the world. You have to be aware of that. And what is more convincing is the correlation between this chart and the price movement, rather than this line and the price movement. Remember, since the bottom right here on the M2 and the bottom on Bitcoin, we haven't seen a bottom here and a retracement on the M2. On the other hand, Bitcoin is giving us a very violent retracement, a sign that it is completely decoupling from this indicator. On the other hand, when we look at the other chart, we see that this decoupling is not present. It's not present because Bitcoin is actually about 3 months behind this chart here. And what Bitcoin is currently following is this liquidity retracement. It's a liquidity retracement that, admittedly, doesn't fall to zero either, but it's marked by banking liquidity, uncertainty regarding Jerome Powell's statements that rates won't necessarily decrease on December 10th, even though we know they will eventually decrease. They can no longer maintain rates this high. That's clear and plain because things are happening behind the scenes that we were watching, that the private community, which I don't show on YouTube, and which allow us to say that Jerome Powell doesn't really have much choice right now. What we are experiencing is this dip here. It's this dip here. And what's most interesting is to note that we have a huge rebound in M2 right now. We have a huge rebound due to several factors. The first factor will obviously be the Fed's slightly more dovish policy. So, there was first a slowdown in QT. Now, they will stop QT. Interest rates have decreased. Among the world's largest central banks, particularly China's, there has been massive QE for years. They are also easing their policies. Japan has no choice. Europe is also getting on board. In short, everyone has an increasingly dovish policy, as we say. And this creates liquidity. Where it also creates liquidity is that the dollar seems to have topped out not long ago and is in a retracement phase, which naturally leads to M2 growth because everything that is devalued against the dollar loses value. And what is also devalued against the dollar are all the foreign currencies of the other 20 banks that make up the index right here.
If we strictly follow the 3-month delay, we observe that the end of this drop occurred on September 22nd, which would make it December 22nd for our dear Bitcoin. Another interesting point is that when we look at the bottom structures on the M2 chart, we see that Bitcoin takes almost the same ones. If we take this retracement here, which was initiated by the large liquidity withdrawal we had all the way back there, the bottom structure was a structure here with a first dip, a small rebound, a second dip slightly lower, then the rise on Bitcoin. Here, we had the same thing: a small dip, a rebound, a second dip just below, then consolidation, explosion on Bitcoin. Right here, we had a double bottom phase with, however, a real W forming. I'll zoom in a bit so it's a little clearer. There, a small dip, a bullish leg, a very small retracement, and then we take off on Bitcoin. We had the same thing right here. W structure, we take off again. The structure we have now, which would create a rebound that we are currently experiencing, then another very small dip, would appear to be, if we have to copy it, the dip we had in the mid-cycle correction right here in 2021. And that would make sense in many ways. First, we've had a descending wedge consolidation right here, which is a bullish pattern. We're creating a lot of liquidity just above. We have fair value gaps that haven't been retested. We're going for lower lows, perhaps one last lower low that wicks just below the wick to take liquidity one last time, and then we break the wedge and we take off. After a consolidation that lasted about 56 days, we have a bullish extension that will last about 119 days. And this fits perfectly into the scenario I believe in for now. And what is this scenario? It's precisely the fact that we haven't experienced a top here on Bitcoin and that we're going to have a final bullish extension to trap as many people as possible. To flush out all those who are currently shorting and who are convinced that Bitcoin's 3-year up cycle and 1-year down cycle has already occurred. Who firmly believe in this, even though this 4-year cycle doesn't actually exist. To come and take all these shorts, all the liquidity, to make a final bullish extension to also take all the shorts on altcoins because there's a lot of liquidity to be sought. We'll give everyone a bullish sentiment again, we'll make a final bullish extension, and then we'll truly enter a bear market for about a year, or a little less, depending on what might happen macroeconomically.
And so, if this liquidity chart still works, for now, obviously, we see a strong rebound that is almost touching the previous highs. We'll have to see week after week now, of course, if we break through the highs and can assume that it's not a major retracement or a double top that's coming, but rather a final real bullish extension. The delay we have is not insignificant either. It's not insignificant because if we re-experience this consolidation here, it would make this consolidation last almost the entire month of December with a slight rise then a retracement then a slight rise then 120 bullish days. 120 days is 3 months, and you know that the first quarter of 2026, for me, will be something truly pivotal because we see liquidity increasing. In my opinion, we'll also have surprises from the Fed, and especially, it coincides with this chart, which is a forecast of the liquidity injected into the system. I presented this chart a while ago. It was created by a company called Crossborder Capital, which is an extremely serious company that works almost exclusively on liquidity concepts and calculations to anticipate when liquidity is drained and when liquidity is reinjected into the system. And what we see is that so far, they haven't been wrong. In 2021, we had these enormous liquidity stimuli, where you can see in trillions of dollars everything that was created for financial markets, then the liquidity drainage throughout 2022. 2024, which benefited from a lot of liquidity until the end of 2024. We felt that in the crypto market. It's also where many people arrived at the end of 2024, and this chart, which has existed for weeks and weeks and weeks, clearly shows us that in 2025, we had a real liquidity drainage phase during which, of course, Bitcoin was able to resist because it's Bitcoin. However, altcoins suffered. And what this chart shows us is that for now, indeed, based on all the stimulus measures put in place by the Fed, by the central banks, we can expect a Q1 2026 that will offer a huge liquidity rebound and that really gives strong probabilities that Q1 2026 will be a good quarter, whereas many people are predicting a start of a bear market.
Now, we are at a key level, and a lot is happening within this large green rectangle that I just drew. I can't tell you everything here, of course, because, you know, I have a community that pays to access these services. So, I really encourage you to click on the link in the description, come here to the site million-crypto.fr, click on "Sign Up," take the subscription for €88, it lasts 30 days. You renew it if you want, if you don't want to, you leave. But really, I urge you to do it, to join us because this is truly where everything is unfolding. This is where you'll need good position management, where you'll need to see what's most likely to happen to avoid all the mistakes you might be prone to. What are the mistakes? It could be capitulating now, for example, when we could objectively be in a bottoming phase. It could also be the opposite. It could be saying, "Alright, I'm going all in on the market now, even though we might go a bit lower." And all this psychological torture will continue regardless of the market movements. The moment we start to rise again and you see your portfolio appreciating, you'll be afraid again. You'll be afraid again because many people will come and tell you, "Fibonacci retracement here is the top, we're going lower. Elliott waves, we're here, we're going much lower." Others will tell you the opposite, it's good, it's bullish, we've gained 20% on Bitcoin, to the moon, when in fact, possibly, that's where we'll turn around too. So, ultimately, you need to be managed, and with us, you will be managed in the best possible way.
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