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Stop watching immediately. Do not get carried away by the eye-popping green surge you see before you, because what is happening to gold at this very second is not just a joyful matter of profit-making, but the highest level of alarm siren that the global financial market is screaming in our faces. What you are seeing is not just gold prices getting more expensive, but a reflection of the collapse of faith in the US dollar. At this moment, gold is like the last life raft amidst a brewing economic storm. Everyone wants to jump on this raft, but I must warn you with good intentions that a raft that people are scrambling onto until it's overflowing always carries the risk of capsizing at the harbor entrance. Tonight is not an ordinary night; it is a fateful night for your investment portfolio. The US is at risk of a shutdown, the dollar is weakening alarmingly, and most importantly, the upcoming Fed meeting could be the fuse for a large time bomb. The only question you must answer right now is, are you entering this battlefield as a hunter with a clear map, or are you merely a victim blinded by greed, about to become liquidity for the big players? If you don't want to wake up tomorrow and find all your profits vanished before your eyes, or don't want to be stuck on the coldest mountain peak in history, this clip will take you to dissect the market's brain, analyze all risks, and plan your response shot by shot before the big storm hits your portfolio tonight. Let's start in the middle of the map and get the big picture as clearly as possible, because if you only stare at the gold price chart, you will only see the effect, not the cause. The real cause that is shaking the financial world right now is the severe illness of the king of currencies, the US dollar. The cruel and undeniable truth right now is that the real hero pushing gold to run non-stop is not just a craze for gold alone, but the market screaming at the Fed: "We don't want dollars anymore." What is happening is a phenomenon of selling off dollars like hot potatoes by investors from all over the world. I call this behavior a severe temporary loss of faith. Imagine this: when the US dollar, the main currency used to price gold, weakens, it's like a ruler shrinking, automatically making the gold price number look higher. Furthermore, when the dollar weakens, other currencies around the world strengthen, making gold look cheaper and more attractive to accumulate for those holding Euros, Yen, or even Thai Baht. This is a natural mechanism working crazily. It's premium-grade fuel being added to the gold rocket. But the worrying point, and I must underline this heavily, is that the market selling off dollars indiscriminately like this is often a sign of extremism. And whenever the market thinks in the same direction too much, that's when disaster often quietly brews, because this fuel tank might be burning down to its last drop.
Now, let's delve into the point I think is the most contradictory and interesting of the year. Reports indicate that global stock markets are surging to new all-time highs. According to basic economics, when stocks, which are risky assets, are booming, capital should flow out of safe havens like gold, causing gold to fall. But the picture we see now is completely reversed, because gold is still standing tall and setting new records along with the stock market. The question is, why is the financial world experiencing this "love one, regret the other" situation? The answer is not complicated, but it is profound. This phenomenon is whispering to us that Smart Money, the world's large intelligent capital, is playing a game of straddling two boats. On one hand, they don't want to miss the train of wealth in the stock market, which is in a strong bull run. So, they continue to hold stocks for speculation. But on the other hand, deep down, they are wary and distrustful of the stability of the global economy not even a little bit. Therefore, they must allocate a portion of their profits to buy insurance in gold. The fact that gold prices are still holding above important psychological levels is not just about short-term speculation, but it is crucial evidence of quiet and continuous accumulation. It's as if they are dancing at a stock market party with joy, but their eyes are constantly fixed on the emergency exit. And gold is that door. So, do not be fooled into thinking that the economy is good just because gold is rising. It is a situation where people dare to take risks but are also afraid of dying at the same time. This is an early warning sign that the ground we stand on may not be as stable as we think. And holding gold in your portfolio right now is not just an option, but a survival strategy that major investors see eye to eye on.
There is another important piece of the puzzle that most investors tend to overlook, but for professionals, this is a point that must be watched with unblinking eyes: the movement of the younger sibling, silver. Because while the spotlight is on gold, the silver market is sending signals that are just as hot and interesting. Latest data indicates that a massive amount of money is pouring into silver ETFs heavily. This is not a coincidence, and it's definitely not retail speculation. It is a signal that global funds are seeing precious metals as the main investment theme of the year. The crazy inflow of money into silver is like sending out scouts to check the area before the royal army, gold, moves in. In terms of technicals, the relationship of the silver market often acts as a leading indicator for gold. The fact that silver can sustain and rebound so strongly is strong confirmation that fear in the financial market is real, and the demand for tangible assets, or hard assets, is returning to reclaim its throne. Therefore, for those trading gold, I want you to divide your screen to look at the silver price chart concurrently. Because if the scouts are still running well and are not ambushed and forced to retreat, it means that the path ahead for gold remains bright and has strong support from the overall precious metals group. It's a trend confirmation that makes us more confident in holding gold.
Another hot topic that cannot be ignored, as it is like a quietly ticking time bomb, is the risk of the US government budget and shutdown, which we commonly call "Government Shutdown," with a red deadline set for the end of this week. This issue acts as a good safety net that supports gold prices, preventing them from falling sharply. The mechanism works like this: political conflict and fiscal uncertainty are always a delicacy for gold. In a situation where Congress is busy playing political games and cannot agree, the risk of a governmental vacuum increases. And in such a precarious situation, no sane investor would dare to sell off safe assets like gold. As long as chaos lies ahead, gold will remain the most comforting safe haven. But I must warn you with good intentions that there are always two sides to a coin, and the scariest side is the trap of good news. US political history always teaches us that they often have a final act where they can shake hands at the last minute. If sudden breaking news emerges that an agreement has been reached or a temporary budget has been passed, this safety net supporting gold prices will vanish instantly. When the concern disappears, the market may quickly turn to profit-taking in the form of "sell on fact." Therefore, consider the shutdown as just a temporary crutch, not a stable pillar. Keep a close eye on this news minute by minute, because it is ready to turn from a positive factor to a negative factor that can crash prices in the blink of an eye.
And now, we arrive at the climax of the entire story tonight: the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, or the Fed. I must emphasize here that anyone who is focused on the interest rate number, wondering how much the Fed will keep it at, is mistaken. Because the market has already acknowledged and absorbed that the interest rates will remain unchanged. But the real game tonight is much deeper. It is a game of psychology and reading between the lines of the Fed Chairman's statement. The intensity will begin at 2:00 AM our time when the statement is announced, and will peak at 2:30 AM when the Fed Chairman holds a press conference. At that moment, the market does not need numbers, but the market needs tone and attitude. If tonight the Fed chooses to play the role of an aggressive hawk, reiterating its stance to crush inflation and not rushing to cut interest rates, the dormant dollar might rebound like a resurrected zombie, and that will cause gold prices to be sold off severely immediately. But on the other hand, if the Fed starts to signal a softer stance, playing the role of a friendly dove, expressing concern about economic recession or satisfaction with falling inflation, this is what the market has been waiting for. A large fuel tank will be poured into the fire, the dollar will weaken further into an abyss, and gold will have an excuse to surge to new highs crazily. Therefore, tonight is not a stage for gambling on direction, but a battlefield of wits. You must prepare a contingency plan for both scenarios, do not lean entirely to one side with all your chips, because a few words tonight have more destructive or wealth-creating power than hundreds of news articles combined.
Now, let's move on to the practical part where we need to take action. For the global gold market, or XAU USD, we are currently in a mode called a strong bull, but it is a bull running on the edge of a cliff. Therefore, for retail investors like us, the first golden rule is: absolutely do not chase prices with emotion. Because jumping into green charts without a plan is clear suicide. Plan 1, for those who are patient and prioritize maximum safety, is the "buy on dip" strategy, or waiting for the tiger to crouch. We will not chase prices, but we will set up a net to wait in the most advantageous zones. The first key support level where we will place our first order is around 5,100. And the second order, to be safe, is at 5,110. Dividing the purchase into orders like this will help spread the risk better than going all-in at once. As for short-term profit targets, we are looking at 5,190 and the furthest at 5,250. But what is even more important than profit is the escape route. If it breaks below 4,980, you must be brave enough to cut losses or stop loss immediately to preserve your portfolio's life. Don't regret it, because your capital is still there, and there will be future opportunities. Plan 2, for the thrill-seekers who fear missing out, or the "follow by" strategy. This plan will only be used when the market has chosen its direction to continue. The only condition to press the buy button is that the chart must be able to break through and hold above the psychological resistance level of 5,200 strongly. I repeat, it must hold, not just a wick poking out to say hello and then falling back down. If the condition is met, we will ride the wave with short-term profit targets at 5,250 and 5,300 respectively. The exit point for this plan must be short and concise, shorter than the first plan: if it breaks below 5,170, you must escape immediately. Remember, in a market that is extremely volatile tonight, a good plan is not just knowing how to profit, but knowing when to escape and where to escape. Having a Stop Loss point is not a defeat, but it is a seatbelt that will save your life from financial accidents.
Let's cross over to our fellow investors in 96.5% and 5% gold bars in our country. This problem is more complex and requires a higher level of detail and caution than the global market, because we have the variable of the Thai Baht as a multiplier/divider. The golden formula that Thai investors must memorize is that Thai gold will surge the strongest when global gold rises and the Thai Baht weakens simultaneously. But if global gold rises and the Baht strengthens against it, it will be a drag that causes the profit we should have to disappear before our eyes. For today's profit-taking strategy, we still emphasize safety as the priority with the plan to buy on dips. We will place the first strong support level at 74,600 Baht per Baht of gold, and the next deeper support level at 73,300 Baht. If you can accumulate in this zone, the first short-term profit target will be at 75,900, and the long-term target will be at 76,800 Baht respectively. As for those who are thrill-seekers and don't want to miss out and are considering the "follow by" strategy, the safest buy signal is when the price can break through and hold above 76,100 Baht. I repeat, it must truly hold. If it passes this hurdle, the first profit target will be at 76,800, and the main target at 77,500 Baht, with a very tight stop loss at 75,600 Baht. The final caution for Thai gold is: absolutely do not look only at the spot chart. You must glance at the direction of the Thai Baht every second, because on a volatile night like this, the exchange rate can quickly turn from friend to foe.
Before we conclude the main content, I want to leave you with one last important matter, more important than chart techniques or any news: investment psychology. I believe that the god-tier trading plan I have elaborated at length will become mere scribbled paper of no value if your mind is not calm enough to follow it. The most formidable enemies tonight are not the Fed Chairman, not the price charts, but the two demons hidden in our hearts: greed and fear of missing out (FOMO). On a day when the market is swinging violently like a storm, human primal instincts often tell us to jump in when we see a strong surge and to hold on when we see a red portfolio, hoping deep down it will bounce back. This is a deadly trap that has killed countless retail investors. The only golden rule that will allow you to survive in the long run is to preserve your principal. Always remember that profit is a bonus the market gives you, but principal is our flesh and blood. If the principal is gone, the game is over. Therefore, daring to stay still when uncertain, daring to sell a little to lock in profits, or daring to cut losses when wrong is not failure, but it is a great victory for disciplined people. Do not try to get rich overnight, but try to survive every night. Because this market is like a marathon, not a 100-meter sprint. The one who crosses the finish line is the one who can endure the longest, not the one who runs the fastest and collapses halfway. The most expensive lesson we have collectively crystallized today is that amidst the storm of financial market volatility, knowledge and preparedness are the only weapons that can protect our wealth. The events tonight are just the beginning of a great war between paper currency and real assets like gold, which in the near future, I believe we will see many times more severe volatility. The question I want to leave you to ponder as homework is, in a global economy as fragile as glass, do you see gold as a shield against disaster or just a time bomb waiting to explode on those who chase prices? And for tonight, what is your trading plan? Will you choose to be on the defensive team, waiting to buy the dip, or the offensive team, breaking through? Feel free to comment and share your views and experiences below. I am waiting to read the opinions of all fellow investors. And if you don't want to miss any important investment opportunities, don't want to miss out on days when the market gives profits, and don't want to get stuck on a mountain peak on days when the market crashes, don't forget to follow and click the notification bell. This way, you will receive in-depth, fast, and accurate information delivered directly to you as one of the first. See you again in the next in-depth analysis clip.