Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in shape, that you are feeling great. Very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Wednesday, September 24, 2025, in front of a green crypto market. The cryptos are growing a little bit. We talked about it yesterday, you will see, it's exactly what's happening, what we saw in yesterday's video with quite a bit of liquidation to the north to go and get. The cryptos are on their way. So, usually, every Wednesday evening, I make a video, a live stream on the VIP Telegram channel where I analyze all your cryptos live for 1 hour. But I'm not feeling well at all, so I'm sorry, I won't be able to do the live stream tonight. Well, I have the full package that everyone loves. A stuffy nose, sore throat, headache, body aches. So I'm not feeling well at all, I'll be lying down for a good part of the day. I can manage to make the video but then I'll go back to lying down. So I'm sorry for tonight, I won't be able to do the little live stream. Regarding Bitcoin ETFs, we see that unfortunately Monday and Tuesday were bearish. Ethereum ETF likewise, the market rather in fear. Well, that's normal, we've fallen quite a bit. On the other hand, we see a little bit of green appearing here on the altcoins. So, the altcoins are still in a small bullish channel. So, you have to be careful. Basically, what's happening? Well, it's the same scenario as yesterday. That is to say, there are two solutions. Either here, you see, we have a first wave which is a small A and that simply, boom, boom, boom, it will fall and it will continue. But when I say a wave, it's a single entire wave. I call it wave A, but you see it's the wave of all these structures, a 7A, a 7B, a 7C with the objective of going down, and you see, there are several solutions, in fact, several solutions. Either it will break directly, boom, boom, boom, boom, or it can make a big wave B, a larger one, and then fall again if you want. That's the idea. So here for the altcoins, they are also still in a bullish channel which is a continuation structure. So we still have impulse, correction, continuation. So it's still not very pretty. If we start to see the altcoins explode upwards like this, we will think that we have here a first wave A, we are starting here for a wave B, and then later, we will make a wave C which will be quite significant because this can also be a reversal structure which can indicate that ultimately we will not go so low on the altcoins. For now, the 50-day moving average is holding well at 826 billion dollars. That's rather good news. But be careful, as long as the altcoins are in such a small channel, the next thing will be a decline, right? What is Bcoin telling us? It's telling us that, well, look at this little exhaustion structure. We were talking about it yesterday, there were two solutions. This was either a running continuation, but boom, it had to fall directly. But if it starts to drag on, it increases the probabilities of having a small exhaustion structure, an exhaustion of this decline. And this exhaustion structure, it was, if you want, it increased the probabilities with the liquidities that were to the north. Many shorts have been established recently, and so a market, at some point when it falls, it falls. It will liquidate a bit of what's happening to the north. Especially the big leverages. Look, Bitcoin was around here, at the beginning of the afternoon, and now it's starting to nibble at the big leverages that are there around 115,122 dollars. 115,122, 115,122, that's around here, you see. So don't be surprised if BCOM, instead of continuing to fall and feeding all these big leveraged shorts, goes to take care of this cluster up to around 15,100, within a few hundred dollars, before falling again. Okay? This remains very possible because when an asset falls, there are two solutions. If I take the structure again. Don't forget that the objective of the large structure since this summer is below 107,000 dollars. So there are two solutions. Either it falls, it makes a small channel, it falls, small channel, well, it falls directly. But what it can do is when it falls, if there are too many leverages, too many big leveraged shorts, it will go and get them and then continue to fall. Now, what would be very good news, we talked about it in yesterday's video. Why did we say that? Because there are quite a lot of shorts to go and get. There are almost 10 billion dollars, you see, to go and get to the north. So, there are big leveraged shorts, then smaller leverages a bit longer. And so, basically, what can happen is that instead of sinking directly, we can have here, well, a small wave A, then start a small wave B, and then start a small wave C, that would still be possible. So, I'm going to zoom out to really show you the type of scenario we're looking at. Zoom in for a moment, no, zoom out to see the scenario we can have. So here's what our little Bitcoin is doing. This is since around this summer, since the beginning of August, that we have had this correction. As long as Bitcoin doesn't break 124,000, we have this wave A, a potential wave B, we expect a wave C below 107,000. Well, no surprise, that's the big structure. Okay. Now, there are two solutions: either the wave separates and directly sinks, and we validate here, well, wave A, here wave B, and wave C, and boom, we start again directly. Or else, wave B here can drag on much longer, that is to say, here, we have a first wave, then we do a small A, a small B, a small C. All of that can be a small B of a 7A, to make a wave C again. You see, wave B can be much larger and decompose into several waves before falling again. So what's unfortunate is that if it does that, it will last a long time. So basically, there are the same scenarios again. Scenario number 1, it sinks directly. There. Scenario number 2, it makes a small A, a small B, a small C, but the small C finally reaches that. And that's the big C. The big C which develops in three stages, it's allowed to, the big C, right? The C that falls, it's allowed to do, you see, something like this, it's allowed to do that, no problem. And that will be very bullish, right, because that would mean that here we have wave A, wave B, wave C, the regular wave, it pushes up. There, that's scenario number 2. And scenario number 3 after, it's much longer, it's a small A, for example, a small B, a small C, or a running or a regular, we don't care. And after, well, it has a 7B then a 7C. There, it makes a big thing like that. And after, there will be the big A, but that will be the big B finished, and the big C. That will last for weeks, still weeks. Well, so let's hope it passed into R3 because otherwise it will last a long time. So since Bitcoin has made a little push there, well, it's clear and net that it's currently going for the big leverages up to at least 115,000. After, if it wants to nibble more, it can go up to 117,000. And if it does that, well, it means that quite simply we are entering. Now, if we're lucky, it will just be the wave that decomposes into three stages, and all the better. That means after it breaks 107,000, and that's it, the correction is over, it starts again. If we're not lucky, it will do that, it will do that in a regular or running, we don't care, and then it will push up again. Well, it will last a very long time. Well, we'll see. Knowing that the 50-day moving average is also around 11400, it's about there, and then we have the Ichimoku cloud which can act as resistance here around 115,000. We have a volume profile zone here and the cloud which acts as resistance around 115,345, it will be complicated, and it's convenient that 115,345 is just above the big leverages, so it could just push towards 115,000, approximately, and a bit, you see, and then fall again, hopefully to finish the structure. Why? Because as soon as the structure breaks 107,000, well, that's it, we can start again, right? Clearly, that's the idea. Well, regarding Ethereum, Ethereum is a bit slower. It's still in this small bullish channel where Bitcoin is breaking out upwards, and we think, well, it's heading for a new bullish wave. Here, Ethereum is still in there. So as long as it stays in a bullish channel like this, small A, small B, small C, boom, it can continue to fall directly. That's why Bitcoin, it's not mandatory. Well, for the scenarios, scenario 3 which lasts a very long time because we really have a big structure and then we continue, for now it's the one with the least probability, I think, because you'll see, Ethereum and the others are still in their channels, meaning that Ethereum, I'll zoom in a bit, it can do here, this A, this B, this C, and fall directly, so just go up a little and fall directly, you see, that's still relevant that basically scenario 1, meaning we fall, small bullish channel, and boom, we continue. And Bitcoin's scenario 1, well, it's invalidated because it hasn't done it, it hasn't had a bullish channel, it hasn't done that, but on the other hand, it can just not go far and then fall again, it's just going to reach 115,000 and then boom, fall again, like Ethereum which will just go towards 4250 and boom, fall again, because if Ethereum starts to explode upwards, however, this channel upwards, it cancels this regular to fall, and if Ethereum explodes upwards, it means that Bitcoin itself explodes, and we are heading for scenario number 3 which will last a long time with a wave B that will decompose a lot into several waves. You see, that's why here, given what Ethereum is doing, well, scenario 2 for Bitcoin is still in progress. Scenario 2, I remind you, is just reaching around 115,000 and then falling directly again. That's the idea. Ethereum, its big leverages are around up to 4280, you see? So it can stop at 4280, which is approximately the top of the channel, right? 4280 is around there, you see. So just do wave C and then fall again. So that's still valid for Ethereum. Uh, knowing that, well, if it even starts to break that and go up a bit, there's Tincan and everything that can hold it back around 4443. Basically, there's a trio of resistance up to around 4400. It will be complicated. If it recovers 4400, we will also move towards a slightly longer correction structure. And we see that there is quite a bit to the north. So we'll see. We'll see. We'll have the answer in the coming days. Especially since we'll have the answer on Friday, I think, with the inflation data that will be released. Regarding Solana, it's the same, it's either small A, small B, small C for a running continuation. Boom. There. So if Bitcoin just goes to get its big leverages at 115,000, a bit higher, and falls again, but on the value, it will just continue a small C and then it will fall. If Bitcoin decides to go much higher to start, well, a new wave, then Solana will start a new wave. So it won't be I fall, I do a running, I continue to fall directly. It's here I finished this wave and boom, I'm going for a, this is a small A, I'm going for a small B, then later for a small C that I will push further. You see, that would last much longer. So we'll have the answer by tomorrow, I think. Ada is supported by its 50-day moving average at 206 dollars. It has big resistances. Well, the Kijun at 224, the Tenkan at 229. For now, the bulls are there, they are not very, very nice. Ana, yes, it has quite a bit of liquidity to the north, right? That's why, instead of making the next wave, the next wave B here, it's not unreasonable because there's a lot of liquidity to seek. There are big leverages that go up to around 230. So here, here the biggest ones are 219, but then it extends up to 230. You see? And 230 is around there. So if it starts to do that, well, it means that it's just making a small additional wave. Small A, it will make a small B. Then boom, it can make a small C to fall again. Well, actually, the best would be for it to fall directly like Bitcoin, so we don't talk about it anymore. The structure is validated. That's it, we can start again for a new all-time high, right? If it drags on, it will be annoying, it will last a long time. Well, and to finish, XRP, I'm at the end of my rope, I have a headache that's going to... So XRP, likewise, small A, small B, small C, two solutions: either it falls directly. There, because this is a regular, it's not very, very pretty, or it falls directly, and Bitcoin will do the same, it will just nibble a bit, Bitcoin, and fall directly, so impulse, correction, boom, continuation, and then we don't talk about it anymore. If it starts to break that and go higher, well, then there will be two solutions for XRP because it has a slightly different structure. The first is that it validates small A, small B, small C, and it validates like it broke there, and boom, it will go above 338 or even 366. But I don't think it will push alone. That's the scenario if Bitcoin decides to make a complex big wave B, that is to say, well, push, make big waves, it will go up a bit, come down again, go up again. Well, on the other hand, if everyone falls directly, that is to say, we don't waste time, ultimately, we don't go into a complex big structure. Well, but here, it's really not a very pretty structure. Impulse, you see, impulse, correction, boom, a regular that has a higher probability of falling. Knowing that the Kijun and Tenkan are around 2.93, 2.94, here it has 2.94, a big resistance which is the Kijun, and the 50-day MA is just above at 2.99, around 3 dollars. So as long as it doesn't break 3 dollars, it won't be very good. Now it's attacking, it attacked the big leverages. Look, so. If, for example, I had made the video around 3 PM, 3 PM, you see, we were here, but then I would have told you, be careful, it's going to attack these big leverages that are up to around 2.93, and look, that's exactly what it's doing. There. So for now, well, it's logical, there's no surprise when a market falls, it makes bounces, we call them technical bounces. It goes to seek the big leverages that place big shorts with impossible leverages. You see, it will go and get them and then either fall again or reverse. But for a market to go up when it falls, it needs to take its time, to establish a reversal structure. It doesn't happen all at once. We see XRP, it also has quite a bit above. Will it try to nibble towards, why not, 2.99? Well, it could reach 2.99 to eat a little bit. After, if Bitcoin, I know I'm repeating myself, but if Bitcoin finally decides to make a big wave B, it's going for a big wave B, and later a big C, but if it makes this big wave B where it goes higher, it can go up to 118,000, you see. Well, if it does that, Ethereum can go up to around 4400, Solana can go up to around 230, XRP can go above 3 dollars too. So it will all depend here on Bitcoin. Will it just be going to get 115,000, these big leverages around 115,000, approximately 200, and then boom it falls again, or are we starting a wave B and then a wave C, well, a running, a regular, we start again like that, well, and it will be a whole mess, a big wave B, very big, to finally, in three weeks, fall again. Well, I hope it won't be that long so we can move on. Let's take a quick look now at the macro, traditional stock market, so here Wall Street is not super pretty, it's a bit green. It's mixed. The stock market is the same. Today, no important macro figures. Tomorrow, we will have the GDP. We will also have retail sales. This is likely to influence, I think, the markets a bit, but especially on Friday we will have the PCE inflation. So that will swing. In my opinion, it's the inflation figures that will decide if Bitcoin is heading for a much longer structure. If the inflation figures, for example, show falling inflation, the markets will be happy. And what will happen? Well, it will happen, small A, perhaps small B, small C, you see, for an A, a B, a C to finally, this is the big B which is much more developed, to finally make the C later. On the other hand, if the inflation figures stagnate or worse, rise, I think then it's a direct descent. You see? So, for now, Nasdaq and SP500 are correcting a bit. Yesterday, we had Powell's speech which was quite bearish, he repeated the same thing as last Wednesday. So, the markets did not appreciate it. Basically, Powell does not expect interest rate cuts yet. We, we have planned nothing, we have been vigilant. Gold is correcting a bit. Copper is exploding upwards. It's crazy. The barrel is also rising sharply. That's not good. That creates inflationary pressures. Crypto stocks are slightly green like Bitcoin. On the other hand, the bond market, yesterday there was a bit of green, but unfortunately today it's starting again. We still have Treasury sales. So the 10-year, the 10-year yield is rising. The 20-year yield continues to rise. The 30-year yield too, that's not good at all. And the dollar is gaining strength, for now it's not good. For now, the bad scenario. Dollar strengthening, long-term yields rising. Well, and therefore stocks are not very, very pretty for now. So we will follow all of this, friends. Sending kisses and we'll talk again soon. Bye bye.