Transcription
Yo, what's up guys? It's your boy Maine here. Sorry, it's been a minute since an update, holidays, new year, and whatnot. Let's get into the charts here now that we've got some actual price action that we can analyze. We've had this big push up to kind of start the year.
So, as you guys know, we've been talking about for what seems like forever, you know, Bitcoin forming a low here, right? We're waiting for this basically to form a low similar to what we had here or here. And the question was whether or not we were going to get some sort of SFP here, right? Were we going to run the low? I uploaded that SFP video which said, hey, if we do SFP here and then, you know, hold it as a proper SFP, we're in for a good bounce, but it doesn't have to SFP. And SFPs again also don't always work. There are a couple examples in the videos like this one here that didn't work, right? But we basically been waiting for this low to form. I want to see this trend line break. So, we've gotten that weekly trend line break finally. So, there's that downtrending line. We got a weekly close through there. So, I'm actually going to delete this because we don't really need it anymore. We know that we've broken this downtrending line.
And now, as we start to zoom into the lower time frames, you can see unfortunately we just came up to the range high, right? So, we had the sweep here, push up. I said, "Hey, I'm thinking we're going to get a move soon." I posted about this. I said, "I think we're going to get some big green candles here." There's our move up right into the range high, but this was going to be an area of resistance. and it is proving to be resistance still for now. If you actually go to the weekly chart here, we did technically put in a weekly bearish SFP here. So, we had a weekly bullish SFP, right, that formed the last low. Well, right now, we've got a weekly bearish SFP right at the range highs. So, this gives me a slight cause for concern. I'm not saying I think we go to zero and this is the lower high. While it is possible, I still think that we're due for a larger push up uh towards here. I still think that that is the base case for me for Bitcoin. However, the fact that we've had this SFP and we've kind of just had this push up and then just instant rejection and then consolidation here, it makes me think that the bulls need to relatively quickly here reclaim this prior yearly open. Right? So, this is last year's open. prior yearly open is this 93530 level. It's also basically confluent with the range high and right where this SFP is forming. We've now had three taps here. So, I think it's very straightforward for the bulls, right? We've got to see a move up, right? We've got this kind of consolidating wedge pattern that we've been in here for seemingly forever, right? Move up, down, up. Now, we're retesting this again. I think the bulls need to break this thing out of here. And if we do, I think you can just leverage long towards, you know, low 100s into the mid 100,000s. So that's really the bull case. The bull case is to reclaim 935 to 94,000 and get that breakout and retest. And I think you can then pour on the margin because I think this is a gap that probably fills relatively quickly here uh up towards 106K. And then potentially this is where your lower high forms. I don't know yet. We're not going to get too far ahead of ourselves. So that is the trade idea number one on the long side that I'd be looking at is us to finally get above here and hold. Right? We came above, rejected. Came above, rejected. Got above, rejected. We need to get above here and close above this 94K level. Get a breakout. then by all means I think it's you know you get long and strong uh and you trade up into this kind of 105 106 level otherwise uh I think we have to be patient and I know it's like dude I've been patient well sometimes that's what trading is crypto is very common where it will move in periods of sprints and then it will be like [ __ ] the doldrums and boring and all that [ __ ] I get it you're like when is volatility going to come it's due right it's going to come but they're going to bore you into [ __ ] in smitherreens first. And that's kind of where we are right now. We're in this boredom phase where volatility really since November. We're coming up on January 12th here. 9 days away from from from it being two months from this low. Okay. So, we're like what? 55 days in here. 52 days in here. In 52 days, we're within a 14% range. And 14%'s pretty big. But you got to realize a lot of this time has been spent around the middle of this range. So, we have not done much for basically the last two months. So, I understand it's boring. That's why I'm trying to do some of these other video types because there's not a ton to talk about here, at least for Bitcoin. Uh, it's been boring. But, I do think we're getting close. I do think that that movement, we maybe get that breakout either this week or next week. We get that low form, whether this is the low, right? and we're going to just break out from here. Or maybe we get another slight pullback here and then we go. Or maybe it's just literally chop and sideways, right? Anything can happen here. Ultimately, I think if you want to take a margin long, you want to get leverage long on Bitcoin, I think the safe play is to wait for it to get above here and then I think with pretty good confidence, if we make a fresh high above here, you can long and capture a $10,000 plus move to the upside. Otherwise, I think you got to wait. Maybe we run this. Maybe we run the mid-range. Maybe we run the range low. I think this is pretty low odds down here, but it's still possible. Okay. So, it's it's just like I think there's a percentage chance of a lower high to an all-time high. I think probabilistically, it's lower likelihood that we take out 80K at this point. That doesn't mean it's not possible. We absolutely still could take out this low and if if we SFP it, great. You're long with a stop below the SFP and you're looking to trade it the exact same as here, right? Exact same as here. But otherwise, I think for now, we are trading similar to this in that we're in a range here, right? We're in a range and once we get a clean breakout of the range, then we're going to get that move, right? We kind of had that same thing here, right? There's your range low. There's your There's your range high. There's your range low. Like the difference here is this made a lower low. And for now, this is a higher low. Doesn't mean that this can't still do this. I think it's less likely. But really, we're just waiting. Just like here, this is a multiple tabs. Failure, failure, failure, big breakout, huge move after failure, failure, failure. If we get that breakout, then we can talk about, you know, the next leg up higher. But for now, we just got to wait. We're still being capped by this range high. So, that's just kind of what we're watching on Bitcoin here. I'm hoping now that the new year is over, the holidays are over, volatility comes back to the market, so we can get some trade ideas going here, make a little bit of shekels, make a little bit of money, a little bit of that cashola. But for now, we're waiting. We're going to be patient above here. I like if we get a pullback, maybe a sweep of this low or a sweep of these lows might entice me into taking a long.
Okay, looking at ETH here, very similar, right? We had that final downtrending breakdown here, right? Oopsies. Uh, okay. We never ended up and we're into this monthly demand here as well. We never ended up taking out that low, right? So, those lows never got swept. Similar to Bitcoin. How do I just delete the red one? There we go. Right. So, similar to Bitcoin, we're in a range. Kind of in no man's land here, right? Like, could you trade this range? Sure. Short the highs, long near the lows. Absolutely. Came up to the range high again. You know, third rejection from this area. Are we going to run this? Is that the setup or do we wait for a clean break above here? In this instance, I think if we can get and hold above 3,300 on ETH, similar to 94K on Bitcoin, uh pretty confident that you can take longs here towards, you know, 37 to 4,000 up into that weekly resistance, just like Bitcoin has that weekly resistance above it as well. Same idea here. We're in a range. Either we chop around, we sweep out a low, or you wait for the breakout. But for now, this is no man's land for me. I'm not going to force a trade. If we do this, that's a trade, right? We've swept out a low. We've reclaimed it. There's a trade idea. But right here, right now, no trade. Same with Bitcoin, right? If we sweep out this low and get a big reaction, by all means, I might be willing to take a trade there. But as it stands right now, this chop, I'm just not interested in touching it.
Salana, I think, actually looks the most interesting out of the the big three, I guess you could say. We have the monthly, right? Retesting the order block here, excuse me, on the weekly. There's your downale for that move. We swept out this low. We're back above that key weekly low. And then as we zoom in, you can see we traded below, reclaimed, we pushed up. Just going to delete these now because they're not as relevant, right? But Salana here is at the range high. So where Bitcoin is kind of slightly below, ETH is slightly below, Salana, we're right at this range high here. And again, similar to Bitcoin. If we can get above 145, 146, 147, whatever this exact level is, let me see. It's basically 145 to 147. If we can get above here, put in a nice candle. I mean, I think this is just you long this towards 180, right? Like if you're not long from here, the mid-range test above 146 147, I think you get long towards 180 on soul. And right now, relative to the other two majors, this is what our like fourth or fifth tap here and we're right at it. Well, these two are kind of hovering below, right? Range high here is 3,300. Range high here is 94K. Basically, this range high is 145, but we're just off it now. So again, Salana, I think, looking relatively the best out of the three, but still no trade for me. I'm really looking for the same setup on all of these right now, which is a break above the range high to get long or a sweep of one of these intermediary lows here.
Okay, so that's what we're looking for on the majors. We're going to go to USDT. This is US dollar tether dominance. Still rejecting this area. I want to see this trade lower, right? If Bitcoin's going to trade higher, this needs to sell off. Same thing here. Bitcoin dominance. It's lost this kind of little trend line here, but not convinced that this is over yet. We have this demand that we built in here. We had the sweep. We have the order block here that we tagged. Maybe it gets a little lower, but ultimately I think this thing probably pushes up a little higher. Uh confluent with Bitcoin trading higher. Look at total real quick. still maintaining this trend line after coming off of resistance here or support, excuse me. Equities, baby, pushing to new highs again. We had new all-time highs on the S&P 500 today. Remember, what did I tell you? Everyone was calling for it to be over. I said, "Hey, we're due for a pullback here is when I tweeted that and told you about it. Said, I think we're due for a pullback before move to 7,000." I had drawn out this breaker because we had this weekly sweep here. So, we had the breaker. It front ran the zone a little bit, pushed up higher. Then I said, "Hey, you know, we kind of had this little gay deviation." And everyone, what did they do? Everyone started pulling out this fractal. Everyone and their mother started pulling out this exact same fractal because there's no such thing as original thought in crypto Twitter anymore. So, everyone pulled out this fractal and was like, "Oh my god, it's the exact same." And yes, it looks similar. Yeah, we had the double triple top. We slightly traded above and then we nuke it down. And this could still happen. We could still roll over from here and end up copying this fractal. But just because something looks like something else doesn't mean it has to have the same outcome, right? So, just because we kind of look the same as here doesn't mean it's going to trade the exact same as there. for now, right? We had this fake little deviation and then nuke. Well, we had this fake little deviation and now we have a fresh high. So, could we still roll over? Absolutely. But what I told you guys was pullback and then 7,000. I said, I think the trade idea is you wait for a break above here in a retest. That's kind of what we're getting right now. We're getting that break above the prior all-time high and that retest I talked about here. There's your move above. There's your retest. We're pushing off here. So, I wouldn't be surprised um if we get one more pullback here just from a timing perspective. I think this chop is taking a lot longer than uh expected. So, I I I wouldn't be surprised if we get, you know, maybe one more little pullback, but ultimately, I don't see any reason to get net short on stocks yet. Maybe we get some sort of move up, run 7,000, something like this. I don't know. Again, I'm not interested in in predicting five moves in advance, even if it ends up looking correct. I just want to find the next trade. So, where is the next trade? Well, if you didn't long this retest here, I think you wait. See what happens here. See if this order block actually gets confirmed. If we put in a big green candle, maybe that's your next trade. Or maybe a run of this low is your next trade. Either way, I still think long biased on equities high time frame. There's no reason to change our plan here so far. Remain long uh and bullish on this and hopefully Bitcoin can [ __ ] uh you know capture any of this [ __ ] delta that we have between these two assets right now. Uh which is just absurd as this thing pushes to new highs again and you know we came to range highs and rejected again. We hope we pray. NASDAQ pushing towards the highs here. Nice retest off the breaker. The Dow all-time highs. The Russell, which is small caps, all-time highs. The dollar got that bounce that we were talking about off of demand here. But we have gold and silver pushing towards new highs again. So, something to watch here. Ultimately, I want to see this roll over, right? I want to see this form a lower high. Roll over. Maybe a little higher, but ultimately, we want to see this trade lower if Bitcoin's going to get back above 100K. Um the 10-year I think is interesting to watch here. We went we're having kind of a repeat of the last leadup to the Fed announcement where everyone was like okay they're not going to cut rates. First it was rate cut was guaranteed then it was like maybe not. Then it was a guarantee. We're kind of having that same cadence here where if you go on like Poly Market right now, I think it's f you can it's a 5% chance that they cut 25% basis points this month in January. Yet the job data still looks like [ __ ] right? Job numbers still looking like [ __ ] And I still think the bonds like I still think this ends up rolling over and this will dictate whether or not there's rate cuts. So I still I still believe there will be rate cuts this month even though the market is not pricing that in right now. I think that might be a good bet on Poly Market if you so choose to do so. Um crypto stocks right again lot of stuff coming into support. Little bit of signs of life on a few of these. A little bit of signs of life on a few of these. So maybe this is kind of a preemptive notion of what's going to happen for Bitcoin. Maybe these are leading the way. I mean, hut with just a [ __ ] giga ripper to new highs here. Gold and silver. Wanted to touch on these very quickly here. I talked to you guys about the trend line thing, right? And everyone's like, man, why are you using trend lines? They work really well in these parabolic environments because if we lose one of these super parabolic trend lines, then usually goes to one of these lower ones. And I drawn these out during the last video and you know, people like maybe that's it for gold. It's back below that old high, right? If you're just using horizontals, you might be like, "Well, that looks bad now. It's back below that old high." Well, it came right into the trend line. New highs on gold right now. Do I think things are getting a little frothy here and the prices are getting a little high and the top may be close? Sure, I do. Same with silver, right? Came right into the trend line. Another leg higher. But until we break one of these trend lines, like these super aggro trend lines, I don't think you need to call top yet, right? Like I think if this puts in another leg higher, you can draw an even more steep trend line like this, right? So if this does like one of these and then again, well, if it breaks this trend line, then it's probably going to trade down to this one. But ultimately, this is the base case trend line here, I think. And once it breaks this trend, I think that's probably it for this rally. But it hasn't happened yet. Uh, and it's still maintaining that trend as is silver. Like the most aggressive parabolic trend for silver is this one right here. And it maintained it and it bounced off of it and it pushed to a new high. So let's see once it breaks this trend and makes a new lower low. So the trend is just to measure like slope. How parabolic is this? Is it going to continue this uptrend? And it gives you kind of a precursor to market structure because it might lose the trend line, right, before it ever loses the swing low. And so that's kind of the thought process here, right? Like we might lose the trend line here before we ever put in a daily market structure break, right? So still new highs here across the board. Still no yen carry trade unwind. In fact, the opposite right now, right? The yen is is is getting um cooked right now by the dollar. We're pushing towards new highs here. Remember, the yen carry trade unwind means Japanese yen strength, which means this would rotate down. For now, this is pushing higher. So, a lot of people were talking about the yen carry trade. I had mentioned it. I said there's no signs of it actually happening yet. There you go. Still hasn't happened.
So, not a ton to update. It's only Monday here. I'm hoping everyone's holidayed out, ready to lock in. I've got another couple weeks of busyness here, but then February onward, February 1 onward, I'm really going to be locking it in with videos, with work, uh, for 2026 here. So, I'm really looking forward to that. I hope everyone is having a wonderful start to 2026. I know it's just getting started, but all of those goals that you set out at the end of last year, we're almost two weeks into this [ __ ] already. Let's get after it.
Okay, so as always, if you want to support me, all my stuff is in the description of this video. Uh, you can find everything on my website, tradermain.com. Link to the Haven IMG indicator. If you want a discount code for breakout, my prop firm, use code Maine. We paid out $30 million to traders last year, guys. I would love to pay some of that money out to you guys. So sign up, try trading with Breakout, especially during this kind of chop. If you don't want to burn your own money, come and trade with some prop capital and then you got fixed downside risk, right? So, code main for a discount there. Otherwise, guys, as always, leave me some nice comments, like, share, retweet, all that [ __ ] I'll talk to you soon. Peace out.