Transcription
[music] Mo, two years ago today, we sat here and discussed AI. We discussed your book, Scary, Smart, and everything that was happening in the world. Since then, AI has continued to develop at a tremendous, alarming, mind-boggling rate. And the technologies that existed two years ago when we had that conversation have grown up and matured and are taking on a life of their own, no pun intended. What are you, what are you thinking about AI now, two years on? I know that you've started writing a new book called Alive, which is, I guess, a bit of a follow-on or an evolution of your thoughts as it relates to Scary Smart.
>> Mhm.
>> But what, what is front of your mind when it comes to AI?
>> So, Scary Smart was shockingly accurate. It's quite a, I mean, I don't even know how I ended up writing, predicting those things. I remember it was written in 2020, published in 2021. And then most people were like, um, who wants to talk about AI? You know, I know everybody in the media and I would go and do you want to talk? And then 2023, ChatGPT comes out and everything flips. Everyone realizes, you know, this is real. This is not science fiction. This is here. And, uh, and things move very, very fast, much faster than I think we've ever seen anything ever move ever. And, and I think my position has changed on two very important fronts. One is, remember when we spoke about Scary Smart, I was still saying that there are things we can do to change the course, uh, and we could, at the time, I believe. Uh, now I've changed my mind. Now I believe that we are going to hit a, a short-term dystopia. There's no escaping that.
>> What is dystopia?
>> I call it face rips. We can talk about it in details, but the, the, the way we define very important parameters in life are going to be, uh, completely changed. So, so face rips are, you know, the way we define freedom, accountability, human connection, and equality, economics, uh, reality, innovation, and business, and power. That's the first change. So, the first change in my mind is that, uh, is that we, uh, will have to prepare for a world that is very unfamiliar. Okay. And that's the next 12 to 15 years. It has already started. We've seen examples of it in the world already, even though people don't talk about it. I try to tell people, you know, there are things we absolutely have to do. But on the other hand, I started to take an active role in building amazing AIs. So, AIs that will, uh, not only make our world better, uh, but that will understand us, understand what humanity is through that process.
>> What is the definition of the word dystopia?
>> So, in my, in my mind, these are adverse circumstances that unfortunately might escalate beyond our control. The problem is the, uh, there is a lot wrong with the, um, value set, with the ethics of humanity at the age of the rise of the machines. And when you take a technology, every technology we've ever created just magnified human abilities. So, you know, you can walk at 5 km an hour. You get in a car and you can now go, you know, 250, 280 miles an hour. Okay. Uh, basically magnifying your mobility, if you want. You know, you can use a computer to magnify your, uh, calculation abilities or whatever. Okay. And, and what AI is going to magnify, unfortunately, at this time is, it's going to magnify the evil that man can do. And, and it is within our hands, completely, completely within our hands to change that. But I have to say, I don't think humanity has the awareness, uh, at this time to focus on this so that we actually use AI to build the utopia.
>> So, what you're essentially saying is that you now believe there'll be a period of dystopia. And to define the word dystopia, I've used AI. It says, a terrible society where people live under fear, control, or suffering. And then you think we'll come out of that dystopia into a utopia, which is defined as a perfect or ideal place where everything works well. A good society where people live in peace, health, and happiness.
>> Correct. And the difference between them, interestingly, is what I normally refer to as the second dilemma, which is the point where we hand over completely to AI. So, a lot of people think that when AI is in full control, it's going to be an existential risk for humanity. You know, I have enough, uh, evidence to, to argue that when we fully hand over to AI, that's going to be our salvation. That the problem with us today is not, you know, that intelligence is going to work against us. It's that our stupidity as humans is working against us. And I think the challenges that will come from humans being in control, uh, are going to outweigh the, the challenges that could come from AI being in control.
>> So, as we're in this dystopia period, did you, do you forecast the length of that dystopia?
>> Yeah, I count, I count it exactly as 12 to 15 years. I, I believe the beginning of the slope will happen in 2027. I mean, it, we will see signs in '26. We've seen signs in '24, but we will see escalating signs next year and then a, a clear, uh, slip in '27.
>> Why?
>> The geopolitical environment of our world is not very positive. I mean, you really have to think deeply about not the, not the symptoms, but the, the reasons why we are living the world that we live in here in today is money, right? And, and money for anyone who knows, who really knows money, you and I are peasants. You know, we build businesses, we contribute to the world, we make things, we sell things, and so on. Real money is not made there at all. Real money is made in lending, in fractional reserve, right? And, and, you know, the biggest lender, uh, in the world would want reasons to lend. And those reasons are never as big as war. I mean, think about it, huh? Uh, [snorts] the world spent $2.71 trillion on war in 2024, right? A trillion dollars a year in the US. And when you really think deeply, I don't mean to be scary here. You know, weapons have depreciation. They depreciate over 10 to 30 years. Most weapons,
>> They lose their value.
>> They lose their value and they depreciate in accounting terms on the books of an army. The current arsenal of the US, that's a result of a deep search with my AI, Trixie. You know, the current arsenal, I think we, we think cost the US 24 to 26 trillion dollars to build. My conclusion is that a lot of the wars that are happening around the world today are a means to get rid of those weapons so that you can have, replace them. And, uh, you know, when, when your morality as an industry is, we're building weapons to kill, then, you know, you might as well use the weapons to kill.
>> Who benefits?
>> The lenders and the industry.
>> But, but they can't make the decision to go to war. They, they have to rely on.
>> Remember, I, I said that to you when we, I think on, on our third podcast. War is decided first, then the story is manufactured. You, you remember 1984 and the Orwellian approach of like, you know, uh, freedom is slavery, and, uh, war is peace. And they call it, uh, something speak, uh, basically to, to, to convince people that going to war in another country to, to kill 4.7 million people is freedom. You know, we're going there to free the Iraqi people. Is war ever freedom? You know, to, to tell someone that you're going to kill 300,000 women and children is for liberty and for the, the, you know, for human values. Seriously, how do we ever get to believe that the story is manufactured, and then we follow? And humans, because we're gullible, uh, we cheer up and we say, "Yeah, yeah, yeah. We are, we're on the right side. They are the bad guys."
>> Okay. So, let me, let me have a go at this idea. So, the idea is that really money is driving a lot of the conflict we're seeing, and it's really going to be driving the dystopia. So, here's an idea. So, I, um, I was reading something the other day and it talked about how billionaires are never satisfied because actually, what a billionaire wants isn't actually more money, it is more status.
>> Correct.
>> And I was looking at the sort of evolutionary case for this argument. And if you go back a couple of thousand years, money didn't exist. You were as wealthy as what you could carry. So, even, I think, to the human mind, the idea of wealth and money isn't a thing. What we've, but what has always mattered from a survival of the fittest, from a reproductive standpoint, what's always had reproductive value, if you go back thousands of years, the person who was able to mate the most was the person with the most status. So, it makes the case, the reason why billionaires get all of this money, but then they go on podcasts and they want to start their own podcast, and they want to buy newspapers, is actually because at the very core of human beings is a desire to increase their status.
>> Yeah. And so if we think of when we, going back to the example of why wars are breaking out, maybe it's not money. Maybe actually it's status, and, and it's this prime minister or this leader or this, you know, individual wanting to create more power and more status because really, at the heart of what matters to a human being is having more power and more status. And money is actually, money as a thing is actually just a proxy of my status.
>> And, and what kind of world is that?
>> I mean, it's a.
>> And all these, all these powerful men have,
>> Correct.
>> are really messing the world up. But.
>> So, so can, can I, can I.
>> But actually, AI is the same because we're in this AI race now where a lot of billionaires are like, if I get AGI, artificial general intelligence, first, then I basically rule the world.
>> 100%. That's exactly the, the concept. What I, what I used to call the, the first inevitable, now I call the first dilemma, and Scary Smart is that it's, it's a race that constantly accelerates. You think the next 12 years are going to be AI dystopia where things aren't.
>> I think the next 12 years are going to be human dystopia using AI.
>> Human-induced dystopia using AI.
>> And you define that by a rise in warfare around the world as people.
>> The last, the last one, the RIP, the last one is basically you're going to have a massive concentration of power and a massive distribution of power, okay? And that basically will mean that those with the maximum concentration of power are going to try to oppress those with with democracy of power. Okay. So, think about it this way, in today's world, um, unlike the past, you know, the Houthis with a drone. The Houthis are the Yemeni, uh, tribes, basically resisting US power and Israeli power in the Red Sea. Okay. They use a drone that is $3,000 worth to attack a, uh, a warship from, from the US or an airplane from the US and so on, that's worth hundreds of millions. Okay. That kind of democracy of power makes those in power worry a lot about where the next threat is coming from. Okay. And this happens not only in war, but also in economics. Okay. Also in innovation, also in technology, and so on and so forth, right? And so, basically, what that means is that, like you rightly said, as the, the, the tech oligarchs are attempting to get to AGI, they want to make sure that as soon as they get to AGI, that nobody else has AGI. And, and basically, they want to make sure that nobody else has the ability to shake their position of privilege, if you want. Okay. And so, you're going to see a world where, unfortunately, there's going to be a lot of control, a lot of surveillance, a lot of, um, of forced compliance, if you want, or you lose your privilege to be in the world. And, and it is happening already.
>> With this acronym, I want to make sure we get through the whole acronym.
>> You like dystopians, don't you?
>> Well, I want to do the dystopian thing, then I want to do the utopia.
>> Okay. [laughter]
>> And ideally, how we move from dystopia to utopia.
>> Uh-huh. So, the, the, the F in face R.
>> Is the loss of freedom as a result of that power dichotomy. Right? So, you have, you have a massive amount of power, as you can see today, in, uh, one specific army being powered by the US, uh, funds and a lot of money, righting against peasants, really, that have no weapons almost at all.
>> Okay. Some of them, uh, are militarized, but the majority of the, two million people are not. Okay. And so, there is massive, massive power that basically says, you know what? I'm going to oppress as far as I go. Okay. And I'm going to do whatever I want because the cheerleaders are going to be quiet, right? Or they're going to cheer more, even worse. Huh? And so, basically, in, in that, what happens is maximum power, threatened by a democracy of power, leads to a loss of freedom. A loss of freedom for everyone.
>> Because how does that impact my freedom?
>> Your freedom. Yeah.
>> Very soon, uh, you will, if you publish this episode, you're going to start to get questions around, should you be talking about this, those topics in your podcast? Okay. Uh, you know, if I, uh, have been on this episode, then probably next time I land in the US, someone will question me, say, why do you say those things? Which side are you on? Right? And, and, and, you know, you can easily see that everything, I mean, I told you that before, doesn't matter what I try to contribute to the world, my bank will cancel my bank account every six weeks simply because of my ethnicity and my origin, right? Every now and then, they'll just stop my, my bank account and say, we need a document. My other colleagues of a different color or a different ethnicity don't get asked for another document, right? But, but, but that's because I come from an ethnicity that is positioned in the world for the last 30, 40 years as the, uh, enemy. Okay? And, and so when you really, really think about it, in a world where everything is becoming digital, in a world where everything is monitored, in a world where everything is seen, okay, we don't have much freedom anymore. And I'm not actually debating that or, or I don't see a way to fix that.
>> Because the AI is going to have more information on us, be better at tracking who we are, and therefore that will result in certain freedoms being restricted. Is that what you're saying?
>> This is one element of it. Okay. If you push that element further, in, in, in a very short time, if you've seen Agent, for example, recently, Manos or Chat, there will be a time where, you know, you'll simply not do things yourself anymore. Okay? You'll simply go to your AI and say, hey, by the way, I'm going to meet Steven. Can you please, you know, book that for me? It's.
>> Great.
>> And, and, and yeah, and it will do absolutely everything. That's great until the moment where it decides to do things that are not motivated only by your well-being. Right? Right? Why would he do that?
>> Simply because, you know, maybe if I buy a BA ticket instead of an Emirates ticket, some agent is going to make more money than other agents and so on, right? Uh, and I wouldn't be able to even catch it up if I hand over completely to an AI. Uh, go, go a step further. Huh? Think about a world where everyone, almost everyone, is on UBI. Okay.
>> What's UBI?
>> Universal basic income. I mean, think about the economics, the E and face rips. Think about the economics of a world where we're going to start to see a trillionaire before 2030. I can guarantee you that someone will be a trillionaire. I'm, I'm, you know, I think there are many trillionaires in the world today or there. We just don't know who they are. But there will be a new Elon Musk or Larry Ellison that will become a trillionaire because of AI investments, right? And, and that trillionaire will have so much money to buy everything. There will be robots and AIs doing everything, and humans will have no jobs. Meaning.
>> Do you think that's a, there's a real possibility of job displacement over the next 10 years? And the rebuttal to that would be that there's going to be new jobs created in technology.
>> Absolute crap.
>> Really?
>> Of course.
>> How, how can you be so sure?
>> Okay. So, again, I am not sure about anything. So, so let's just be very, very clear. It would be very arrogant. Okay. To assume that I know.
>> You just said it was crap.
>> My, my belief is it is 100% crap.
>> Take a job like software developer.
>> Yeah.
>> Okay. Uh, Emma would love my, my new startup is me, Senad, another technical engineer, and a lot of AIs. Okay. That startup would have been 350 developers in the past.
>> I get that. Um, but are you now hiring in other roles because of that? Or, or, you know, as is the case with the steam engine, I can't remember the effect, but there's, you probably know that when steam, when coal became cheaper, people were worried that the coal industry would go out of business, but actually what happened is people used more trains, so trains now were used for transport and other things and leisure, whereas before they were just used for commu, for, um, cargo. Yeah. So there became more use cases and the coal industry exploded. So I'm wondering with technology, yes, software developers are going to maybe not have as many jobs, but there, everything's going to be software.
>> Name me one.
>> Name me one. What?
>> Job?
>> Name me that's going to be created.
>> Yeah. One job that cannot be done by an AI.
>> Yeah.
>> Or a robot.
>> My girlfriend's breathwork retreat business where she takes groups of women around the world. Her company is called Barley Breathwork. And there's going to be a greater demand for connection, human connection.
>> Correct. Keep going.
>> So, there's going to be more people doing community events, in real life festivals. I think we're going to see a huge surge in things like.
>> Everything that has to do with human connection.
>> Yeah.
>> Correct. I'm totally in with that. Okay. What's the percentage of.