Walmart CEO issues dire economic warning. (good luck finding a job)

All right, everyone. I'm coming to you live here October 6th, 2025, and we have big news today. Walmart CEO just released a massive economic and labor market warning that you all need to be paying attention to. Walmart is the biggest employer in America. They're a top 15 company by market cap, and they're now warning you about what AI is going to do to your job in the future.

And it's not just Walmart doing it, everyone. It's a lot of different companies. You can see the CEO of Walmart just issued a wakeup call. AI is going to change literally every job. And in this wakeup call, the CEO from Walmart basically said that Walmart is going to freeze their hiring over the next three years. Walmart will not be hiring more workers over the next three years.

And this joins a chorus now of big Wall Street companies that are now saying the quiet part out loud that AI will wipe out jobs. A couple months ago, the CEO of Ford, folks, the CEO of Ford said that artificial intelligence is going to replace literally half of all white collar workers in the US. So you have the CEO of Walmart saying we're not going to hire anyone net over the next three years. Then you have the CEO of Ford saying half of all white collar jobs are going to go away. You also have the CEO of Amazon saying that their headcount is going to decrease in the future.

And this is ultimately telling you that we're in a labor market hiring recession in the US. These big corporate conglomerates are cutting back hiring and I fear they're soon going to start firing due to the advancement of AI and due to the slowdown in certain parts of the economy. And you could see that, uh, these, this chorus of CEOs saying, you know, the quiet part out loud that AI is going to wipe out jobs.

It's now starting to show up actually, folks, in the data as well. The data on job growth is also really starting to slow. So in August 2025, we had 0.9% job growth across the US according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics year-over-year. You could see that's decelerated heavily on job growth already. And this job growth is likely to continue to slow down into the future. You could see that we're not quite yet at a year-over-year contraction in jobs like we saw in the dotcom bust, in the great financial crisis, in the lockdowns, but we are starting to get there in terms of this labor market slowdown and this labor market recession.

And you know, folks, the data points just keep piling up one by one. You have these CEOs, uh, and then you have ADP now saying the US lost 32,000 jobs in September. Private payroll group ADP is saying the US job market is. How long can this go on for before it pops all the different asset bubbles that are going on in the economy? Right? We have the housing market bubble which has started to pop in about half of the US. And then we have the stock market bubble which is raging as big as almost it's ever been. And then we have things like cryptocurrency and altcoins and all those things that are also raging.

At some point, folks, fundamentals are going to rule the day. At some point, people need jobs to be able to pay for these things. And people are going to need to feel like they have employment opportunities in the future to be able to buy houses, buy stocks, buy Bitcoin, and to even buy food. People need jobs and income, uh, to do those things. And I think a lot of people are missing the big picture here. A lot of people are pretending and ultimately have their heads in the sand thinking that somehow what's going on right now is sustainable in asset markets, in housing, and stocks in particular.

But yet the CEO of Walmart is coming out and telling you we're not hiring. The CEO of Amazon is coming out and telling you we're going to cut workforce. The CEO of Ford is literally saying, in what might be one of the most egregious statements I've ever heard from a corporate executive, the CEO of Ford is saying half of all white collar jobs are going to go away because of AI. These people are not hiding it anymore. They're telling you what's going on. That white collar jobs especially are in the crosshairs.

And you know, I just relate this to the housing market. What does this mean for the housing market? What does this mean for home sales? What does this mean for home prices? Folks, you need a good job in order to buy a house. If you don't have a good job, you're not going to be able to qualify for a mortgage to buy a house. So, if the good jobs aren't growing and are might even contract, where's the demand for the housing market going to come from? Where's that going to come from? Everyone in the housing market is sitting around scratching their heads, twiddling their thumbs, somehow believing that there's going to be a turnaround just out of nowhere, right? So many people in the real estate industry are just still thinking there's going to be just a turnaround. The Fed cut rates last month. Oh man, maybe there'll be a turnaround.

Folks, there won't be a turnaround so long as these corporate executives are saying, "We're not going to hire anyone. Oh, and we're going to fire you, by the way." Just very open about that. They're very open about that. And it's not actually just the corporate executives, everyone. This was really the interesting thing about this data that I'm, I'm pulling for you here. I also looked at small businesses. How are small businesses feeling about hiring? Because we got the big corporate CEOs, right? We got the Walmarts, the Amazons, the Fords, but what about the small businesses?

Well, I consulted the NFIB small business survey and they have a data point on unfilled job openings. Percent of small businesses with at least one unfilled opening. You can see there was a huge surge in unfilled job openings during the pandemic. That has since plummeted down. Unfilled job openings are now at the lowest level since 2015 for small businesses. Now, clearly they're still not yet in a major recession territory like they were in '08, but that's a huge deceleration in job openings for small businesses over the last two years. So, it's not just the big guys, it's also the small businesses cutting back on hiring. Small businesses are also cutting back on hiring.

This is something that data from Indeed is also picking up on. Job postings on Indeed have plummeted by about 50 to 60% over the last two years. Job postings on on in on Indeed are about to break down through their pre-pandemic benchmark. But here's the funny thing about all this, everyone. The job openings are plummeting. The labor market is in a recession. I'm calling it right now. We're in a labor market recession.

But get this. Get this. The Atlanta Fed GDP forecast for the Q3 2025. We just ended, uh, Q3. What's their GDP forecast? It's 3.8%. The Atlanta Fed is forecasting 3.8% GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025. So, how does this make any sense, everyone? How is the Atlanta Federal Reserve forecasting what would be a tremendous quarter for GDP, 3.8% inflation adjusted? How are they forecasting that when the hiring in the labor market is so weak?

Well, folks, let's take a look at the components of their GDP forecast because this is going to reveal a lot to you about what's going on in the economy right now. If you're confused about how this bubble is still going, then this is going to tell you why. In the Atlanta Fed GDP forecast, 3.8%. Where's the biggest part of this forecast coming from? Let's see. Can we zoom in on this a little bit, folks? Yeah, I'm going to zoom in on it. Consumer spending, PCE. 2.2% of the 3.8% forecasted GDP growth is coming from consumer spending. The other 0.56% is coming from non-residential fixed investment. So really all of the economic growth forecast for the third quarter is coming from forecasted, um, consumer spending and non-residential fixed investment.

Now let's break that down for you guys so you can understand what's coming in the economy, what's coming in the housing market, coming in the stock market. Consumer spending is pretty simple. How much money are consumers spending? And by that forecast, consumers are still spending. The amazing thing about this economy is that consumer spending has remained resilient throughout all of this. So, we have job openings plummeting, layoffs increasing in corporate America. Um, Americans now having very negative perceptions on the future of the economy, yet they're still spending. Retail sales were up 5% year-over-year in August 2025. As a result of that, these big, uh, corporations like Walmart are still driving revenue growth. Amazon is still driving revenue growth because people are still spending. That's one piece and I'm going to address if that's going to continue in a second.

But the second piece is the non-residential fixed investment 0.56% of GDP. Do you know what that is, everyone? That's basically AI data centers. AI data centers, uh, are the other piece of that GDP forecast. So all that infrastructure spending in AI is propping up the economy to some degree. So a lot of capex spending is coming from these big corporate tech giants like Amazon and, uh, Meta and Google. They're, you know, building data centers all over the place. They need power. They need electricity. That's also supporting the economy in the short term.

So, we're really an economy right now that's based on consumer spending and AI data center construction. And those two things are floating the economy, floating the stock market while the fundamentals keep deteriorating. And you just have to ask yourself the question, how long is that going to go on for? At what point does Walmart saying we're not going to hire anyone and Ford saying half the white collar workers are going to be gone and Microsoft laying off 15,000 workers and Amazon saying we're going to reduce headcount. At what point do those things actually lead to a reduction in consumer spending?

Like this is the thing that I don't think these corporate CEOs are thinking through. You know, on an individual level, all these corporate CEOs are making the, you know, cost-efficient, productivity enhancing decision to, uh, slow hiring and start laying people off because that's going to maximize earnings. But the problem is if all the companies do that at once, you're then going to have more people on the unemployment line. You're going to have more people having their hours cut back at work. And, you know, as that happens, that's should eventually reduce consumer spending, right? That should eventually reduce consumer spending.

But get this, everyone, there's another piece to this equation that's keeping the economy afloat. And it's this is like a very pernicious, very kind of scary thing for the economy is that why are the retail sales higher? Why is the spending still going up? Well, it's because it's coming from a very narrow slice of the economy. According to Bloomberg, the top 10% of earners are now a growing share of consumer spending. Get this, everyone. According to Bloomberg, referencing data from Moody's, the, uh, top 10% of income earners in America are now 50% of the consumer spending. 50% of consumer spending comes from the top 10%. Remember that 50% of consumer spending, you know that, uh, GDP forecast I just showed you, that consumer spending, where is that coming from? That's coming from the top 10% of income earners.

And you can see it didn't used to be this way. Back in the '90s, the top 10% of income earners maybe were 35 to 37% of spending. Or maybe in the 2000s they were 42% of spending. Now they're 50% of spending. So what you have going on here is an increasing bifurcation in consumer spending in America. And in consumer spending, folks, is 70% of GDP. 70% of GDP is consumer spending. So you need to know what's going on with consumer spending if you want to know what's going on in the economy. 70% of GDP.

So we have basically half of America, I would say at least, being, uh, on the struggle bus, right? Inflation's eating them up. They're not getting a raise. They might not even have a job. They can't find a job. Or if they do have a job, they're, you know, clasping onto it for dear life. They're cutting back spending, but the richest 10% of Americans keep eating up that spending. And this is almost like the Ponzi scheme of the current economy that I see right now is you have the wealthiest Americans spending more. And they're spending more because of the stock market. You know, the wealthiest 10% of Americans, they own like over half the stock market. So, they, you know, the stock market's in a bubble. The share prices are high. Uh, that takes the top 10 to 20%, they're like, "Yeah, I'll spend." And then that spending propels revenue growth for the publicly traded companies, which keeps their earnings afloat, which keeps their stock prices afloat, which then propels more spending. This is the cycle we're in right now. And it's a cycle that's happening as everyone outside of this cycle is getting cut out. Everyone outside of this cycle is more or less feeling worse and worse about their economic situation and scratching their head like how is this possible that everything is still so expensive? How have we not seen a massive deflationary crash yet with what's going on? It's because of that cycle. It's because of that bubble.

And I can't tell you, folks, like when that's going to end. It's already lasted way longer than anyone thinks. But I think it's helpful to know what is actually underpinning this because I see a lot of people confused about the current economy, stock market, housing market, and they just like list off all these narratives about why it's happening. Like some people say, oh, like some people actually think the economy is good. Like some, like some segment of people actually thinks the economy is good, which we know it's not. It's not good if the, uh, payroll growth is plummeting, job openings are plummeting, and all the corporate CEOs are saying we're not going to hire. The economy is not good.

If that's the case, then you have other people saying like, "Oh, the Fed's still printing money." I hear other people say, "The Fed is still printing money." That we're still doing QE. That's not true. The Fed stopped printing money three years ago. The Fed's balance sheet is contracting right now. They're still doing quantitative tightening. The overnight reverse repo bucket for the Fed is basically drained to zero. The excess liquidity is mostly gone at this point. So, the Fed is not printing money anymore. They stopped that three years ago.

What do other people say? Other people say that we're going to have crazy inflation, right? They say that the asset inflation we're seeing right now in stocks and Bitcoin is a sign that we're going to see inflation everywhere else throughout the economy. But if that's true, folks, if we're actually going to see real inflation throughout, you know, the rest of the economy, uh, the whole thing is going to collapse because this economy cannot withstand any more significant inflation. Any more significant inflation and this economy goes bust instantly because people are already stretched so, so thin. And if we have more significant inflation, that would cause interest rates to go up. That would cause bond yields to go up. So, we can't handle that.

It seems almost like everyone is trying to come up with every excuse in the book for the current situation except the truth, which is that we're in a massive stock market bubble that's propelling the wealthiest 10% of Americans to spend way more than they ever have, which is supporting consumer spending, which is supporting earnings and revenue, which is thereby supporting the stock market bubble. That's what's going on. And that's a very fragile situation, right? One little thing here, one little thing there. All of a sudden, stock market goes down, people start panicking.

And I want to show you guys actually, um, a post I did on X, formerly known as Twitter. And I, I posted about this today on, uh, on X because I wanted to see what people were thinking about about this topic. And look at this, everyone. I posted a chart here. And I'm, NickJurley1 on X. If you guys want to follow me, NickJurley1 on X. And that's how you actually pronounce my last name is Jurly. It's not girly, everyone. It's Jurly. Make sure you get it right.

So, here's a long-term chart on the stock market bubble in America. So, we have the cyclically adjusted Shiller PE ratio here. Cyclically adjusted Shiller PE ratio. And you could see we're at the second highest stock market bubble of all time. Second highest stock market bubble of all time right now. A 39.8 cyclically adjusted PE ratio. Long-term average is 17.8. So this is the stock market bubble, everyone. The only other time we had a bigger stock market bubble market cap valuation relative to trailing earnings was the dot bubble, right? And then we had the big crash of the GFC. You can see the current bubble is even bigger than the roaring 20s stock market bubble that got to 32.8 CAPE and then in the Great Depression it went all the way down to 5.6. So this is literally uncharted territory right now, everyone.

But the reason I'm actually showing you this is I want to show you some of the comments here to this on X, everyone. Like the comments to this were very amusing to me and actually show you kind of like what's going on. So this is one guy who's basically saying that my chart shows my lack of understanding of the new dynamics in the market. He's saying that the S&P is now extremely tech-heavy, which means a higher PE and higher growth. He's basically saying there's new dynamics. So, this graph just doesn't matter anymore is what this person is saying.

Here's another guy. Old data is meaningless in today's analysis. This is a new QE world where we can live in print endlessly. So, this is two people in a row looking at this graph showing how big a stock market bubble we're in. And their immediate reaction is, "No, no, we're not in a bubble because things are different," is what they're saying. And as I scrolled down, I was shocked at how many people were saying this.

This third guy, no, Shiller PE is garbage and rearview looking forward PE looks very reasonable. So, this person is saying, "No, no, you can't look at trailing earnings. Forward earnings is only what matters." Um, and as I, you know, go down here, yeah, another person, Shiller index is irrelevant. It's a relic of when most of the S&P and Dow was manufactured. Current earnings are much higher margin and more sticky in a recession.

And the reason I'm showing you all those comments, everyone, is because it's further proof of the bubble we're in. When you show data over 140 years that the stock market is in the second biggest bubble ever relative to earnings, I would say that a reaction that people should have would at least be curiosity, right? Like, oh wow, like, okay, so the multiples are way higher than they've ever been. Like, what's justifying that? Maybe, maybe we should, you know, do some research. But instead, the way people react is they just say like some version of no, no, no, shut up. Be quiet. No, no, no, no, no way. Oh, it's new. It's different now. You can't look at that anymore. It's new. It's different now.

Reminds me a lot of what I experienced in the housing market over the last three or four years. When I tried to tell realtors that Austin's housing market was in a bubble, they all said, "No, no, no. You can't look at the home price to income ratio in Austin because, um, all the people from California are now moving in," is what they said. Lo and behold, Austin's now down 25%. Biggest housing crash in its history. When I moved to Florida and started seeing that housing market go down, all the people down there, many of the people down there were telling me, "No, no, no, Nick, you, that data doesn't matter." Um, the home price to income ratio in Florida doesn't matter because all the New Yorkers are coming down. Oh, it's different. All the investors are now buying. Where's Florida's housing market now? Highest inventory in 15 years. Prices are going down all across the state. Prices are crashing in a lot of different areas.

And the reason I'm harping on this, everyone, is because it's so interesting to see the delusion and cognitive dissonance, right? Where it's so obvious we're in a bubble being driven by the top 10% of wealth in America spending at 50% which is supporting revenue and supporting earnings to some degree. It's so obvious that that's the case when you dive in. But then people's initial reactions are like, "No, not possible. Not possible." And it's almost like people are just like, "Don't bother. No, the stock market's just going to continue going up forever." It's just what people's mindset is now. And when you see people with that mindset, that's just further proof of what's actually going on.

And the reality is, folks, the fundamentals just aren't there. Like, and no one really wants to admit it because it's an uncomfortable thing to admit, right? You know, a lot of people are enjoying their lifestyle with their looking at their 401k go up every day, right? Or certain people quit their jobs and became day traders or something. So, for a lot of people, it's really uncomfortable to admit that this is a big bubble. But it is a big bubble. By almost every potential metric, it's a big bubble.

And the slowdown in the labor market, right, is where you get concerned. Because if the labor market was booming and Walmart's CEO came out and said, "Oh, we're going to hire 300,000 people the next three years." You would say, "Well, maybe this bubble has a chance of continuing because more people are going to have a job, more people are going to get raises." If the CEO of Amazon was going to come out and say, "Oh, we're going to do some big hiring plans in the US. We're going to increase our workforce." You would say, "Oh, well, maybe this bubble would actually have a chance of sustaining itself."

But if the labor market keeps rolling over, this thing doesn't have a chance of continuing. Because at some point, as the labor market rolls over, fewer people are going to spend money on the margins, on the margins. And as fewer people spend money on the margins, you'll start to see the revenue growth deteriorate and you'll start to see the earnings deteriorate. And then what at that point, you'll probably see stock prices start to go down. And then all of a sudden the spending of the top 10% will be compromised.

And so I've, hope you, I hope you've enjoyed this live stream. I know I kind of go, I'm going right now, everyone. I'm 23 minutes in. It feels like it's been five minutes. Uh, I'm live right now. This is October 6th, Monday. I'm going to take your requests here in a second. Look at different housing markets. But, um, you know, I'm just getting really concerned about this data, this data on the job market. And, you know, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, everyone, the data just keeps rolling in on the job market. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Do you know what they just said, everyone? The Federal Reserve Bank of New York just pulled people and they found that the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one's current job was lost fell markedly to 44.9%. The lowest reading since the start of the series. So basically, less than half of Americans feel confident that they would be able to find a job if they lost their job. Normally, like prior to the pandemic, that was 60%. Now it's 44.9%. We've never seen Americans so pessimistic in their ability to find a job if they lose a job.

And at this point, this isn't surprising, right? This shouldn't be surprising to you with the CEO of Ford going out there and saying artificial intelligence will replace half of all white collar workers, which again, I'm just going to say is an extremely inappropriate thing for the CEO of Ford to say. I think it's actually really inappropriate for a lot of these CEOs to come out and say things like this because truth be told, they don't know how the economy is going to shake out the next two to five years fully. And they're doing a lot of damage to, um, their corporate brand. They're doing a lot of damage actually, um, to the long-term value and long-term franchise value of these companies. Uh, who would want to work for these companies, everyone, when these companies are coming out and saying things like this? Um, and I know some people who work for Amazon. I know some people who work for companies like Microsoft, their morale is in the basement right now because their leaders are coming out and basically saying like, yeah, like you guys might not be here in a year or two. Um, you know, it's, I don't know. I, I'd be offended if I worked for these companies and my leaders at these companies came out and said this. There must be a much better way to deliver this message than they're currently doing it. But maybe they also want people to quit. You know, a lot of these companies overhired during the pandemic. A lot of these companies went berserk hiring during the pandemic. They probably hired too many people if we're being honest. Maybe they just want a lot of these people to quit. They're calling them back in the office, right?

And, you know, I think ultimately, like what does this mean for the housing market? Where are home prices going to go as a result of this labor market slowdown? And, you know, where are, where can we expect home buyer demand to be? Let's get into those questions, everyone. Um, and let's look at this market by market. We're going to look at data on Reventure App and we're going to assess different housing markets in America. Are we already seeing this slowdown take place in different housing markets in America? The labor market slowdown.

Well, the first thing to understand, everyone, is that home values are going down already year-over-year in all the areas in blue. So, home values are already going down in Florida, in Texas, in Arizona, in Northern California. Now, home prices are going down. Home prices are also now going down in North Carolina. They're going down in Nashville. They're going down in Arkansas. They're going down in Colorado. So, home prices are now going down in a lot of different parts of the US. We have housing market deflation already occurring in half of the US.

Now, we have housing market inflation still occurring in these areas in red, like in Chicago. Home values are still up 3.3% over the last 12 months. In New York, they're up 3.5%. And if we look at this on a statewide basis, we can see home values are up still in the Northeast and Midwest. They're down in the South in the Sun Belt. So, that's the story that I think a lot of you guys are used to hearing, right? But the way I would frame this for you all is home values are already dropping in half the US. Home values already dropping in half the US.

Now, on top of that, we have the corporate CEOs saying, "We're not going to hire anyone. Or headcount's going to stay the same or headcount's going to drop." What's that going to do to home buyer demand? Especially in a state like California, everyone. California relies a lot on tech jobs, professional services jobs, white collar jobs. What's California's housing market going to look like over the next three years as this labor market recession goes?

Well, folks, California's housing market is already in the basement. The home sale activity in California, check this out. Home sales are down almost 40% over the last four years. We have the lowest home sale activity in California at least in 13 years according to data from Redfin. So the buyer demand in California is so low that we've literally never seen anything like this almost in the last, like 15 years. Already the buyer demand is low. So add on more layoffs. What's that going to do? Well, home values in California are starting to drop due to this low demand. They're down 1.6% over the last 12 months. Could they drop by more in the future? We'll have to see. I'll get into my forecast here in a second.

What about Texas? In Texas, home values are down 2.4% over the last year, according to data from Zillow available on Reventure App. Now, Texas is really an inventory story. Texas is an inventory story. We have 136,000 homes for sale in Texas as of September 2025. We just updated the September data on Reventure App. You guys should check it out. We had a little bit of a bug the last three or four days, by the way, on Reventure App. We've more or less fixed it. So, you can go to www.reventure.app right now and check out the data for September in your area. 135,000 homes for sale in Texas. Before the pandemic, there was only 104,000. So, we have an inventory surge in Texas. What's going on with the sales activity at the same time? The inventory is going up in Texas. Well, the sales have not gone down as much as California, but the sales have gone down a lot. We're at the lowest level of sales in Texas going back to 2014. So, we have lowest sales and buyer demand in Texas since 2014 mixed with the highest inventory in 10 years. So, we have record inventory mixed with lower sales. What's that going to do? We have a minus 4.9% forecast over the next 12 months in Texas's housing market. You got to look at your zip code, though. You got to look at your city. I'm going to get into those in a second.

And I'm just going to do rapid fire here. We're going to cover different states, different cities. I'm going to take your requests here in a second, everyone. But, let's just get the big ones out of the way. We talked about California, Texas. What about Florida? Now, in Florida, inventory is up to 162,000 homes. Interestingly, inventory in Florida has actually dropped the last three or four months because sellers are running scared from the Florida housing market right now. The new listings are down. However, our September 2025 inventory in Florida is still by far the highest level in the last 10 years. At the same time, the sales activity in Florida has plummeted by about 33% from peak. It's the lowest buyer demand in Florida since 2014. So, we have lowest buyer demand in Florida since 2014. We have highest inventory going back at least a decade. That's telling you prices are going to continue to drop in Florida. And I get, going to get to your request in one second, but I just want to lay that foundation for you guys, right?

What's going to happen in the housing market? Well, in our three biggest housing markets, California, Texas, and Florida, it's lowest buyer demand since 2014. In all of them, in all of them, it's lowest buyer demand since 2014. In Texas and Florida, it's highest supply going back at least 10 years. In California, it's highest supply in six years. So, that's already happening right now. Think about what a slowing job market is going to do. Fewer people hiring, more people firing. What is that going to do to demand? Well, the sales activity is going to stay low. It might rebound a bit. You know, if you're a realtor or mortgage broker out there, I do have some good news. I think 2026, we will see more sales than 2025. The problem is going to be for prices is that the sales increase is not going to match the inventory increase in 2026 because I think we're going to see even more inventory hit the market in 2026 than we did in 2025.

Here in the late summer and fall, the sellers have kind of gotten a bit like discouraged. Delistings are way up. A lot of sellers are kind of like going to list their house and then they're getting angry. You know, a lot of sellers like listing their house and they get like no offers or they get some lowball offers and they get angry, right? And then they delist it. Uh, Realtor.com was showing that like delistings are up something like 60, 60, 70% year-over-year. So, you have that going on right now, like, like sellers like dealing with some type of like emotional cognitive dissonance pulling their home off the market. So, the inventory growth has slowed a bit. Rest assured, everyone, those houses are going to come right back on the market in March and April and we're going to see the inventory spike by even more.

So, this is a long-term cycle, a long-term trend. The inventory has grown a lot. The prices are starting to slow. They're even going down in half the US. But we're going to see even more inventory hit the market in 2026. We're going to see even more people come to market because they can't afford their taxes, can't afford their insurance. Uh, we're seeing even fewer and fewer 3% mortgages every single day. I showed a chart in my last video how soon there's going to be more 6% mortgages and 3% mortgages for existing mortgage holders. We're going to see more sellers, more listings through the spring of next year. And I don't think the buyer demand is going to come back. The buyer demand is not going to bounce back when corporate CEOs are telling all their employees that you might not have a job.

So, let's get to, uh, let's get to some requests here. Let's see. What do you guys want? What do you guys want to see? We have a very active chat right now. This might be the most active chat that we've had in a while. And, uh, Desiree, if you are moderating in the chat, please help direct me here where to look because this is a lot of different comments here for me to, uh, pay attention to. A lot of different comments here.

So, we have a channel member here, Gunnar, is saying it's coming to fruition. It has been written. Just hang on. Almost there. That's almost biblical in nature. Uh, that post from from Gunnar. I think it's just simple fundamentals, right? Like it's simple fundamentals. Home prices, real home prices are in a bubble. You can see real home prices here are at their highest level on record. Inflation-adjusted home prices are even higher than they were in 2006. So this is K Shiller. Inflation-adjusted home prices are at the highest level ever. So how are they going to stay at the highest level ever if the job market is crumbling? Gez, I, I don't know. I don't think they will stay at the highest level ever if the job market is crumbling.

Let's see what other requests do you guys have for me. Different markets that you want me to look into. All right. Reza is saying that in Houston the average building cost is 150 to 200 a foot. You can buy a new house cheaper than building it. Yes, this is true. This is a great point. Also, further proof that prices are going to drop in the existing market. They're dropping in the new builder market. So, builders have cut the price 13% already. Uh, median sale price from builders is down 13%. They're giving mortgage rate buydowns. You can build much cheaper than it is to buy an existing house. That's a signal on where the market is going in the future.

Chris is trying to get out to Seattle if I can, but it's hard to leave California. The job market is frozen. Chris, what do you mean by that? Are does that mean you are going to find a new job or want to find a new job or you feel like you don't want to move with the current job market? He says, I got absolutely no interest in living in the desert though. Sounds like you don't want to move to Nevada or Arizona.

Fishstick says rentals going down. Looking to move to the Brevard area. That's Bard County, Florida. And all the rents have been going down like crazy. That is great news. Yeah, rents are going down in a lot of these different markets. Um, Austin rent is going lower than before the pandemic. Austin rent is going lower than before the pandemic.

All right, we got a, we got a request here from JK. What do you say to the people who say income to home price ratio is less important than what percent of income is spent on mortgage payments? I'd say they're both important. Um, Reventure App's valuation rate uses the home price to income ratio, but, um, it actually looks even worse in terms of, you know, mortgage to income ratio. So, this is an interesting data point, everyone. I want to educate you guys on on Reventure App. Here we have a data point called the mortgage payment to income ratio on Reventure App. And this data point is going to help you figure out when it's going to be a good time to buy a house in your area. Right? So mortgage payment as a percentage of income and you could see the most expensive states to buy in red, the cheapest states to buy in blue. So this data point helps you do two things. One, you could find right now the most affordable places to buy. For instance, in West Virginia, local West Virginians only need to pay 20% of their income on mortgage and taxes even in today's bubble. So people are still buying in West Virginia. Actually, the sales in West Virginia are still going up because it's still affordable to buy. But in California, the mortgage payment to income ratio is 57%. So 57%. I mean, paying 57% of your income on mortgage and taxes to buy a house. Can you imagine that? Can you fathom that? Well, most people clearly can't afford to buy in California as a result. And, um, you could see this mortgage payment to income in California is usually 42%. So the question from JK was like, you know, this is an important data point, right? Because the long-term average is 42%. Before the pandemic, it was 34% mortgage payment to income. So if we're at 57% today, that's telling you the market is not close to rebounding because it's still too expensive. And these are just the simple facts, the simple realities of the affordability in the market. Most people in California especially cannot afford to buy a house. But even in a market like Washington, like one person said they were looking to move to Seattle. In Washington, the mortgage payment to income ratio is 45% when the long-term average is 33%. So again, I folks want you to think about this like from 2009 all the way to 2021, you could buy a house in Washington on a local income and spend 25 to 30% of your income and you could actually qualify to buy. Now, that's impossible for most local people who live in Washington because you have to pay 45% of your income. This data point, folks, is showing you why this market is so messed up.

Take a look at Florida. In Florida, you have to pay 37% of your income to buy a house. I mean, Florida is a state that should be affordable. There's nothing about Florida that says it should be priced like California, Washington, or anywhere on the West Coast. Yet, it became that way during the pandemic. Comparatively, before the pandemic, you could spend 20% of your income on buying a house in Florida. And so for those of you who are frustrated by this market, for those of you who have been waiting and who are wondering like when that buy signal is going to come, this mortgage payment to income ratio is a good, good metric. So when Florida's mortgage payment to income on Reventure App gets closer to 27%, its long-term average, that'll be your signal. That'll tell you, um, that the market is in equilibrium and that the buyer demand is going to come back in. I mean, folks, how similar does this look to 2006, 2007, 2008, right? Like, look at how the mortgage payment to income peaked at almost the same level in Florida in '06 and then went all the way down to 16%. Insane.

And so, that's the good news in all of this. Like, I think I saw one person say like, "Oh, the data is depressing." I, I actually don't think the data is depressing in terms of the conclusions you can draw from it, right? Where is this all leading? Labor market slowdown, stock market being in a bubble, home prices already going down. It's leading to the reality that we're going to see a crash and a correction play out. We're already seeing that play out in certain parts of America. Um, you're going to see more affordability hit the market in your area over the next 6 to 12 months most likely, especially if you live in the areas with a lot of inventory already on the market. So, that, that's the upside to all of this is that it's going to create buying opportunities. It's actually going to create opportunities for the people who have been patient and the people who have been waiting. And those opportunities are already presenting themselves. They're already existing in certain states like Florida. I mean, I have people email me probably a couple times a week in Florida saying, "Hey, Nick, I just bought a house in Florida at a crazy discount." You know, you have people buying in Florida right now, $200,000 less than people bought for two or three years ago. You have builders doing big price cuts. So, there are people already taking advantage of this. However, there's still more downside very clearly in this market. There's still more downside to come in this market.

Let's take more requests. Let's take more requests, everyone. And yeah, Desiree, that was helpful, uh, pinning the comment. If you could do that again, that'd be great. Sis Serena is asking, can you discuss things happening in the upper Midwest? What is the upper Midwest? Could you clarify what the upper Midwest is? Do you guys know what the upper Midwest is? I'm going to assume is that that could either be North Dakota or that could either be Michigan, upper Midwest. I don't know what you guys think. Upper Midwest. I mean, the Midwest is a big area. It basically goes like pretty much all across this swath of America. What's going on in the upper Midwest?

Well, let's just do a rapid fire around here. We'll zoom in on the Midwest in case you guys are in the Midwest or even if you're not, understand what's happening here. This is in a big part of the country. Minnesota prices are already up 2.3% the last year. North Dakota, they're up 3.8%. Wisconsin, they're up 3.7%. Michigan, they're up 2.7%. Illinois, they're up 3.5%. Indiana, they're up 3.1%. Iowa, they're up 3.2%. Nebraska, they're up 2.6%. Kansas, they're up 2.4%. Hey, Kentucky, they're up 4.7%. Technically, KY is the South, everyone. But I have this debate with people here in Tennessee all the time. Is Kentucky in the South or is it in the Midwest? Because, you know, it feels like very much like a southern state when you go to Kentucky. I don't know if you guys have ever been to Louisville a couple times or I should say Louisville. It's not Louisville. It's Louisville. Louisville. Been there a couple times. Feels very much like the South, but it borders Ohio and Indiana. So, it is kind of like Midwest vibes. West Virginia values are up 1.7%. By the way, folks, in West Virginia, the typical home value is $170,000. So, in case you're a remote worker, you're looking to retire in an area that's really affordable. West Virginia is a beautiful state and you could buy really cheap there. Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is technically northeast, but I consider the western part of Pennsylvania to be kind of Midwest. Values in Pennsylvania are up 3.1% year-over-year.

So, yeah, we still have values going up in these markets. And the reason why everyone is due to inventory, there is an inventory shortage still in the Midwest. You can see the blue here. The states in blue are still down on inventory from their long-term average. So, we still have an inventory shortage here in the states in the Midwest. And even in the states where there isn't a shortage anymore, it's still not much of a surplus. Comparatively in Florida and in Texas and in Arizona, inventory is more than 40% above the long-term norm. So, why are values going down in the South, but going up in the Midwest? It's because of an inventory story, right? There's an inventory story going on. There's a lot of homes for sale here in Arizona and Texas and Florida. There's almost no homes for sale still in Illinois. And that's the reality of the situation. And it's one that actually confuses a lot of people because you say, "How is Illinois's housing market still doing so well?" How is Illinois's housing market still doing so well?

Oh, this is an interesting comment. Tutango says Walmart is gross now. My personal thought. I don't know if I would say Walmart is gross. It's not a store I frequent too often. I used to go there more. I used to be a big fan when I was a teenager. I used to be a big fan of going to Walmart and looking at like the, uh, CDs. I love their CD section, but I don't buy CDs anymore. I listen to, I stream so I don't really go to Walmart as a result. Um, what else? Everyone, I saw someone say that property taxes should be illegal. Property taxes should

be illegal. That's an interesting one. We know in Florida, Governor DeSantis is, uh, pushing hard to try to eliminate or reduce property taxes in 2026. Is he going to be successful with that? I did a video on it a couple months ago. I think, um, it does make sense to try to reduce property taxes for some owners, but, uh, make sure you don't reduce property taxes for investors because you want investors to feel like, um, you know, they don't, investors shouldn't pay cheaper property taxes than homeowners. Uh, and higher property taxes for investors is actually something that motivates a lot of them to sell, which is a good thing.

Thomas says, "It's all about positioning yourself. You can't control the environment, but to know where you are going." I totally agree with you, Thomas. So again, the way I would think about this, everyone, job slowdown, corporate America hiring slowdown, will slow down. View it as an opportunity for yourself, uh, in, in these different housing markets.

We have a request from Tom and Ivonne. Can you please look at 82636, Casper, Wyoming? 82636. Casper, like Casper the friendly ghost. What's going on here in 82636? We got the zip code levels back up here on Reventure app. Make sure to go to www.reventure.app, folks, to check out this updated data in your area. Home values in Casper, Wyoming, which, where is Casper, Wyoming? It's literally in the middle of Wyoming. Now, Wyoming, folks, is, is a crazy state because do you know how many people live here? 587,000 people live in the state of Wyoming. That's less than, like, that's less than the county I live in in Tennessee. 587,000 people live in Wyoming, and in Casper, 80,000 people live in Casper. So this is really, folks, this is like the middle of nowhere, you know? And maybe you like rural areas. Clearly, some people do. Home values here are up 5.7% in the last year. So home value, Wyoming is actually the number one state for home value growth in the last 12 months. Now, why are prices up? Can we, can we sniff it out? Look at this, folks. In 82636, inventory is down 24.7% from normal. So, we have inventory down. Prices are still going up. What's our 12-month forecast? Woo! Folks, plus 7.3% 12-month forecast here in Evansville, Wyoming. My goodness, this is still a heavy seller's market. You know, I take these forecasts from you guys. I normally don't see plus 7%. We got a plus 7% in Casper, Evansville, Wyoming. We're still a seller's market. Inventory here, everyone. And this is how you should analyze the data in your city, right? Replicate what I'm doing here, uh, at the end of this video at www.reventure.app. Look at this. The inventory went down from last year to this year. Days on market. What's the days on market? Days on market. Isn't it gone down to the lowest level in a decade? 24 days on market in Casper, Evansville, Wyoming, plus 7.3% forecast.

So for those of the, you know, I see people out there saying like, "Nick, you're so bearish on the housing market. Nick, can't you say anything good about the housing market?" Folks, we have a forecast at Reventure App that takes the data in your zip code and determines a forecast that's proven to be very reliable. And in a lot of cities and zip codes, we still do have an upward forecast, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest and Wyoming as well, because there's still a shortage of inventory. So, check out that forecast in your area. At the end of this video, I'm going to show you how you can do it. But in the meantime, I'm going to take some more requests. I'm going to take some more requests here. If we can, uh, get Desiree some other requests pinned here.

Um, sis Serena says, "Why I'm in a timeout?" Well, so just so you guys know on the live stream, so I can follow. It's helpful for people to not like post like multiple times at once because it's like I'm just trying to like look quickly and if there's just like a constant stream of comments from the same person, uh, our moderator, Desiree, uh, might put someone in timeout. Don't take offense to it. Um, don't take offense to it. We just got to kind of keep the comment section clear.

All right. Tregery says his forecast for all areas is down. Maybe in the next three years, but I think in the next year, there's certain areas that are definitely going to go up.

Uh, Adrian says, "Trump's America is so great for people with so many jobs. Are you sure your data is correct?" Uh, Adrian, I appreciate maybe, you know, you know, your perspective on Trump. Um, I also think maybe in the long run, Trump is going to be good for the economy. I think we're going to see more manufacturing come back to the US. But there's just a certain reality to what started in the job market a year and a half ago, two years ago, and what's continuing to happen. We're entering a job market recession, right? And no amount of like getting other countries to say we're going to invest in America is going to stop that from happening, right? There's clearly the train has left the station on the jobs recession and it's happening. All these data points show that job openings are going down. Indeed, ADP, Walmart CEO coming out and telling you, government jobs data, it's all pointing in the same direction. Small business, uh, surveys. So, yeah, that's just the direction of the market. It doesn't have to do with Trump necessarily. Just has to do with how the economy is trending.

All right, everyone. Gunner says, "I can vouch for Nick. I've been following him for six or seven years. He's been very accurate." I appreciate that, Gunnar, but I actually only started posting to YouTube in late 2020, so the most you could have been following me before is five years, but I appreciate that.

Um, what else do we got, everyone? Hey Nick, what about Mississippi now that there is no state income tax? That's interesting. I had no idea. Is there no state income tax in Mississippi? No state income tax. Mississippi. Did Mississippi just become the latest state? Mississippi currently has an individual tax, but a new law signed in March 2025 will gradually phase it out over many years. The timeline for completed elimination is 2040 at the earliest. Well, I don't know if that's going to change things if 2040 is the earliest. But let's just take a look at Mississippi. It's not a housing market I talk about frequently. Uh, it's one that a lot of people forget about. Home values in Mississippi are up 0.9% over the last 12 months. What's our 12-month forecast for Mississippi's housing market? Flat, 0.3%. There's not a lot of job growth. Our long-term growth score for Mississippi is actually not bad. We have a 48 long-term growth score for Mississippi. Um, it's actually not as bad as I thought it would be. This is not a state I would recommend, like, a lot of people buy. However, you could still probably find some cities here that have some affordability. I think we have some cities in Mississippi that are not very overvalued. Jackson's not very overvalued. Other cities are undervalued. Just understand what you're getting when you buy in Mississippi is like pretty low population growth. Maybe it could turn it around in the future. I wouldn't bank on it. I would much rather buy in Alabama if I'm having to pick, right, of my more affordable southern states. I would much rather buy in Alabama. Home values in Alabama are only 4.4% overvalued. So, look at this. They were 18% overvalued. Now, they're only 4.4% overvalued. Alabama has good income growth. The property taxes in Alabama are minuscule. Literally, the average property tax rate in Alabama is 0.3%. $887 per year property taxes in Alabama. Wild. And then on top of that, population growth. 5.1% population growth the last 5 years. Mississippi's minus 1.1%. So Mississippi's minus 1.1%, Alabama's plus 5.1%. Folks, Alabama's population growth is almost the same as Tennessee's and North Carolina's. Everyone talks about in real estate, everyone talks about North Carolina and Tennessee. Alabama has the same population growth. In terms of income growth, Alabama is also the same income growth the last five years. I actually really like Alabama. If I had to buy right now, I'm probably buying in Alabama. I'm probably buying around Huntsville, Huntsville, Athens area. This is a high, high education, high wealth area where home prices are still cheap. Uh, we do think values are going to go down in some of these areas over the next 12 months, but, uh, I'm long-term bullish on Alabama if I had to pick.

Uh, Trap Music says, "Alabama has way more upside than Mississippi." I agree. Uh, "Alabama's often overlooked." Yep. Yep. I sounds like we're in agreement, everyone. Summer has an interesting request. Oh, actually, Steve has a great question. Steve says, "In Florida, would rent go up if property taxes for investors don't go down?"

So, this is like the one, uh, argument a lot of people talk about with like property taxes. They say you should lower property taxes because that will allow investors to cut rent, is what a lot of people say. This is Steve's comment, question regarding it. And what we see generally in the housing market, everyone, is that when you give landlords something, rarely do they pass it off. Uh, New York City did something recently, everyone. There was a really interesting New York City brokerage fees, landlord rent increase. So, New York City just passed a law where they ended brokerage fees last month. So, basically, they passed a law in New York City that ended most broker fees on rentals. So, before New York City, I sometimes you had to pay like two months' rent to a broker, right? Well, New York City got rid of that. And the idea was, well, you get rid of that broker fee and then you're going to basically see the landlord cut the rent, was the idea. Instead, the rents went up. The rents surged after that happened. New York City ended most broker fees last month. What has the new law done to rents? Well, this is a Reddit thread. I guess there's not much data, but basically the story was New York City ended brokerage fees and it caused the rents to actually go up. So, the moral of that story, Steve, is that I'm skeptical of the narrative of cut expenses for landlords and they'll pass it off to tenants. I think landlords end up just pocketing it.

Um, in terms of rent, though, like the broader story on rent is that rents are going down. Rents are going down in Florida. They're going down in a lot of parts of America. I just talked about this last week, everyone. We have a lot of accidental landlords now listing their homes for sale. People who couldn't list their homes for sale are now listing them for rent. What's that doing to the rental market? Well, you could see, folks, according to this Wall Street Journal article, data from John Burns Consulting is showing that rent growth for single-family homes, 1.5% in 2025. So, we have the lowest rent growth for single-family homes in 12 to 13 years. 12 to 13 years. So, the rent deceleration is also happening at the same time. And this is like another thing that convinces me that we're on this path, right? Labor market's slowing. Corporations aren't hiring. We have rent disinflation. Home sales are in the gutter. I mean, you just add all these things up, it's telling you that prices are going to drop. I mean, rent, rents being at the lowest level, rent growth being at the lowest level in 14 years is a big signal about what's fundamentally happening in the housing market. There's more supply, not enough bodies and people and households to soak up that supply.

What else do we got? Well, apparently has some great questions here. Zachary Keith Hasbro says, "Do you think the elevated youth unemployment is due to AI or some other factors? In the US, it's around 10%. In Canada, it's 15%." So we have elevated youth unemployment rate. Um, that's definitely partially due to AI. I think it's also just due to, like, the overall environment that these companies are in right now. They clearly don't feel confident about the future. If you felt truly confident about the future, right, as a business, you wouldn't be saying things like we're going to cut headcount. You would be saying we're going to expand headcount. So I also think there's like a certain facet that these, like, companies don't actually feel that confident about the future. Definitely AI. I think there's just some macro stuff going on. I think some of these companies overhired also.

Um, Zachary is looking to buy in Naples. Super chat here. 34110. Is this the right time to buy or renew my lease and wait another year? Currently renting in Naples, Florida. This is such an interesting market, everyone. Naples, Florida. What's going on in Naples? What's going on in Naples, everyone? Well, in Naples, home values are down 7.5% the last 12 months. Naples is a market that is already heavily correcting. Naples has actually been down three years in a row. It was like a micro drop in 2023 and 2024, minus 7.5% last 12 months. That's the biggest drop in Naples since 2009. So, we're starting to see these sizable drops in some of these Florida housing markets. Biggest home value decline since '09. Our 12-month forecast in Naples is minus 4.1%. So, we think values are going to continue to drop. We actually don't think that the drop is going to be as big. It's been kind of strange, everyone. Inventory in Naples after spiking in April has dropped significantly through September. What's going on here is that sellers in Naples are kind of running scared from the market. The new listings are way down. So, the inventory here is really slowed. Um, at the same time, the home sales in Naples, uh, are pretty low. So, we still think this market's going to decline, but it's a bit, it's not in the same freefall it was in the last 12 months. I think you should be able to negotiate some good deals, but like I think we're going to see inventory here. If you just want to talk about timing, right, Naples housing market typically starts seeing inventory spike around now. It's a reverse seasonality in Naples. So, inventory typically peaks in September. I would wait. I would wait a couple more months and see if the inventory starts rebounding again because if it does, then the then the downward forecast could get, uh, accelerated.

And folks, what you guys need to do right now, if you are a home buyer and investor, you need to go to Reventure App and look at this data for your area. If you're going to buy a house for $500,000, $600,000, a million dollars, even $300,000, you need to understand that 12-month forecast for your city and your zip code. There's huge variations on what's going on in different housing markets around the US right now. And we just have some areas where, like, we have a heavy downward forecast. Like in Broward County, in, uh, north of Miami, some areas we think are going to go down 10 point, uh, 9.9%, 10% downward forecast. Literally values going down $50,000 from where they are today. You need to understand if that's going to happen in your area. You also need to understand the overvaluation rate. How overvalued or undervalued are prices? You can see here in Miami, we have some areas that are 43% overvalued compared to the long-term norms. We actually now have some areas towards the beach that are undervalued. Could we be seeing a bottom play out soon in the beach locations in Miami? You got to answer that question for your zip code. You got to see that overvaluation rate for your state and your city. You can access all that data at Reventure App. It's the program I've been using throughout this video. I built this program for you guys to access this data. Sign up for a premium plan on Reventure App. The premium plan costs $49 a month, or sign up for that annual pass at $33 a year. Now that we're heading into the winter, I would really recommend a lot of you sign up for that annual pass. It gets you a 32% discount. And then you can track this data going through the spring and ultimately find cheaper prices on houses, find the best areas to buy, and know when the right time to buy is going to be.