Transcription
Okay, good morning everybody, or good afternoon, depending on what time you're watching this. And, uh, welcome to the latest market roundup podcast.
Um, a little bit like last week, I think what I'm going to do here is take a look at some of the charts on slightly smaller time frames than we usually look at. We normally look at the monthly, um, month, monthly time frame charts, but, um, I think at the moment, with, uh, with some of the charts, it's probably more important to be looking at the signals on slightly shorter time frames. We're well aware of the big picture, um, roadmaps. Of course, they're on the website for you to look at, and we cover those very regularly. So, we know the big picture for gold and silver, and, um, we know the big picture for, for oil and those sorts of things. But I think at the moment, it's important to look at the smaller time frames and what's happening, what's happening now. So, I'm going to do that with some of the charts, and then when we get to them on the, on the list of monthly charts, we can, we can skip past those and save a little bit of time.
So, starting with a daily chart for gold, and that's what you're looking at right now. So, you can see the chart goes back to September, October of last year, and you can see the big rapid rise and blow-off top, if you want to call it that, that took place right at the beginning, um, of this year in January. And the huge, uh, roughly 50% drop. Sorry, not this. It was a 50% drop for silver, wasn't it? But a lot less than that for gold. The drop was from about 5,600 to about 4,400. So, just over $1,200. So, it's nowhere near 50%. Um, so, but nevertheless, um, a drop of over $1,000. So, uh, that's over sort of 15, 20%, that sort of order. Um, and then a recovery. That's what you call an echo bubble. Um, and then a drop to a lower low, and then another recovery and a rejection. And the volatility is decreasing here. So, I think we're edging towards some kind of resolution. Um, now, it would be nice if this correction played out over a longer time frame, and we either dip below the support low zone and fall lower, or we just base around this kind of level for, um, a few more months. And, uh, that would be good because it would allow the longer-term moving averages to catch up. So, uh, support zones important. If we fall below about 4,300 or so, that kind of area, then we're going to see a deep, obviously, a deeper, longer correction that could take us down well below $4,000. Um, if the support zone holds, however, we're likely to be basing at these sorts of levels and possibly gradually breaking to the upside.
Now, what I'll be looking for to turn, um, significantly more bullish is not so much a breakout above that orange line, that orange descending line, but a breakout above the rising red support line, and then, uh, a follow-up by breaking out above this red dotted line at around about $4,900. That's where I would start turning significantly more bullish. There's a wall of resistance in there. We've already been rejected at it, um, back in April. So, I'd like to see us above that before being able to sort of give the all clear. The other thing to note from this is that we've got some divergence taking place here. Um, and there's a divergence cheat sheet that you can use, and it's this bullish divergence here, where the price is making lower lows, but the trended momentum indicator is making higher lows. We go back to the chart again. Lower low on the price, higher low on the stock RSI indicator. So, that's a bullish divergence, which may very well be an early hint that, um, gold is going to make a, um, a more concerted effort, if you want to put it that way, more concerted effort to begin moving to the upside. But remember everything that I just said about when we can turn significantly more bullish, uh, or, uh, alternatively, um, alternatively not.
Um, the silver chart, um, is looking, um, how can I put this? Well, I mean, we've got that higher low on the indicator there on the silver daily chart, but, um, we don't have a lower, um, low on the price. Actually, the price has held up and is currently making a higher low. So, that's normal behavior. And if you remember what I said before was that if you haven't got a position in, um, gold or silver, and this is looking at silver at the moment, then adding in one of these three zones or building a position in one of these three zones is perfectly reasonable. You can start to build a position in zone one, add to it in zone three, and start adding more aggressively in, sorry, in zone two, and start adding more aggressively in zone three, or, heaven forbid, if we, um, briefly break below zone three down into the 50s. So, that's if you don't have a position. And, um, once we start breaking out above this level between $90 and $96, then that indicates that the next big move is taking place, and we're likely to move way beyond, um, the previous high of, of $121. So, that's a strategy for initiating pos, longer-term positions. Those of us who have long-term positions, you've been using the TNS or the DPM, and they are long and strong. Uh, silver's been long from $23 and is likely to continue to be long, uh, for some significant period of time. Um, and gold, we've been long since $1823 in the TNS, and no sell signal given for the longer-term investors there. The DPM continues to have a position in gold, although the S&P is now starting to outgun gold on a monthly time frame. So, we're going to see the DPM, um, um, positions changing as a result of that. So, keep an eye on the DPM this month. Um, there's likely to be a shift, um, towards stock markets and, um, a reduction in the, in the position for, uh, for the precious metals.
Okay. So, moving on from silver, and we're going to take a look now at, um, in fact, I'll just show you silver on another, um, chart here. This is the same daily time frame, but slightly different analysis, and it shows you silver in a rising, expanding megaphone pattern. Very important that the support level holds. That's around about the $74, $75 area. And if we look at yet another, um, view of silver, this time on the 8-hour time frame, again, it just shows how important that support level is. And on this chart, on the 8-hour time frame, it's around about $73. So, that whole area between $73 and $75. Got to keep an eye on that on a variety of time frames. This is multi-time frame analysis that we're doing for you. And by doing this multi-time frame analysis, we can get a, um, a feel for which way silver is likely to break. First on the hourly chart, then the 2-hourly, the 4-hourly, the 8-hourly, the daily, u, the weekly, and so on. So, that's what we're keeping an eye on for you in the background.
And the gold to silver ratio is actually moving up at the moment, with gold outperforming silver. So, whilst that happens, it's unlikely that, um, we see a big upside move for the precious metals. We need to see this ratio falling in a precious metals, um, uptrend because in a good solid uptrend, just like the last one, what happens is that the gold silver ratio falls. So, you can see this drop during the second half of last year, or the Q3, Q4 of last year. Big drop on the ratio. That was the massive run for gold and silver, silver outperforming. And then we've had this period where we had a big upside spike. That's when the precious metals dumped, and silver dumped 50%. Um, and then since then, it's been a kind of consolidation. So, again, this piece of evidence is going to let us know, um, whether we should be very much more cautious, that will be if we break resistance, or if we should, um, really start to think in terms of the next leg of the gold and silver bull run. That would be, um, if we start to break support.
Okay, moving on to oil. And the oil chart now is down in its support zone. This, that's this red shaded zone. And as it says there, if we start to fall to the lower portion of that red shaded zone, then this red support line becomes, um, critical and sort of comes into play because I, I would expect that either the red support zone or this red line down at around about $81, $82. I'd expect that to to hold and for us to then begin to move up again. But we can't, you know, we can't have any kind of bias about it. We just need to, um, observe the chart and what it's telling us. And at the moment, it's telling us that there's a consolidation taking place. There's no directional signal. The next directional signal will be if we break below the lower red line, or if we break above the upper red line. So, in terms of the next leg of the oil bull era, it won't be until we break above first that red resistance line and then the green resistance zone. And once moving, once we've moved above the green resistance zone, 200, 250, 300, um, is the, the general direction that we're moving in.
The gold to S&P ratio is interesting. Um, this is because of the analog with the 1960s and 70s. I've highlighted the, well, first of all, the black, the black line, the black graph is the gold versus S&P ratio. So, when it's going up, it means that gold is outperforming the stock market, and when it's coming down, gold is underperforming the S&P 500. Okay. So, this is all about capital rotation. It rotates between, um, gold and the stock market on a cyclical basis. So, knowing what's going on and where we are in this cycle is, is critical to not just investors, but traders as well. Um, and look at the analog. I've just literally copied this, highlighted it in red. And what I've done is I've moved that across to the latest cycle. And so, you know, you might already be getting a feeling that the 1960s and 70s have a lot of similarities with now because in the 1960s and 70s, we'd broken out from 40, from a multi-year decade, multi-decade, um, um, descending, um, reducing period of 10-year yields. The 10-year yields have been going down and down and down. Then we broke out and began to move up throughout the 60s and 70s. The 10-year yield climbed. At the same time, there was, um, an energy issue, an oil issue, or an oil crisis. There was war in the Middle East. Um, you know, hopefully all of those things are sounding familiar. So, there's a lot of similarities with what was going on back then and what's been going on more recently. And in fact, since 2013, so for the last 13 years, gold to S&P has done exactly what it did, um, for those 13 years here. Um, so, um, therefore, you know, we're going to keep following this, um, pattern, um, to see if it continues to play out for the next, uh, 10 years or so, from 2026 through to the mid-2030s. If it does, what it means is that the gold to S&P ratio in the near future is going to start moving up again with, um, the precious metals outperforming, um, and then a big drop sometime around about 2028. That kind of ties in with the 8-year cycle for precious metals, the 8-year cycle low. Be interesting to see if that happens.
Okay. Um, so, uh, we'll take a look at Bitcoin. And, uh, Bitcoin on its weekly time frame, um, you can see the weekly candles here from the sort of 2023, um, time frame all the way through to now. So, we've got the bull market there, the breakdown below the 50-week moving average, below the Ichimoku cloud. And before this breakdown really got going, we had noted that Bitcoin was breaking down versus gold. So, we pre-warned everybody about this, and we, uh, made our exits in the region of $100,000 or or above. The TNS has been doing a very good job of avoiding the drop from $120,000 down to $60,000. So, if you're just, you know, um, kind of hodling, you would have seen a 50% drop. Uh, if you're using the TNS, the little TNS buy and sell signals might have given you something like a 1%, 2%, 3% drop from the, from the top. So, the TNS, although it's giving some false signals, it massively protects you by keeping you out of the big drop, and it will always have you in for the big rise because the TNS gets you in when the moving averages align, and, um, when you get that golden cross and price is above the moving averages. So, that's all, all the things that happen in the bull market. So, the TNS is, is doing a good job there. And, um, until we get above the 50-week moving average and Ichimoku cloud, I won't be personally getting very excited about Bitcoin.
Same can be said for Ethereum. Um, huge drop from $5,000 down to $2,000. Um, and if we break that red support line, uh, then I'm afraid, um, Ethereum is going back down to a thousand and possibly lower, in my, in my view. So, it's important that that red support line holds. Um, Bitcoin versus the S&P looks terrible. So, the S&P is doing fine, but Bitcoin's doing absolutely terribly. So, um, huge drawdown for Bitcoin versus the stock market. You would expect in a risk-on, um, environment for Bitcoin to do well. Um, it's always done so in the past, but in this, um, capital rotation environment, Bitcoin is just, is dumping versus gold, and dumping versus the S&P, and just dumping versus the US dollar.
Uh, the S&P, just to reiterate what I just said, is in melt-up territory. We have broken to the upside from a rising wedge pattern, above that orange line. So, breaking to the upside from a rising wedge is often associated, just happened with gold and silver, often associated with a huge upside move. So, the measured move would take us to somewhere in the region of 9,000. Um, we could overshoot to 10. Um, but I'm being cautious with this, um, trade suggestion. Trade suggestion had an entry at 7580. Stop loss at 8,000, just above 8,700. Sorry, profit limit just above 8,700, and a stop loss, um, somewhere in the region of 7,000. So, uh, that was the trade suggestion for, for the S&P 500. The reason it's not in the SRS is because it's not an SRS compliant setup. Um, but it's the S&P is a, a strongly trending instrument. Um, I'm just trying to suggest a potential trade here. But for all of those, all those of you who are interested in longer-term investments, you'll be using the S&P and NASDAQ as represented in, um, in the TNS, of course, and as represented in the DPM. So, they're bias-free methodologies that will keep you in as long as the trend is continuing, and, um, massive profits there for, for the S&P, of course, in the, in the TNS.
Okay, I think now we go back to, um, there are a couple more, a couple more charts to look at here. That's the gold big picture chart, which shows a potential pullback, only potential, to somewhere in the $3,800 to $4,000 area with that rising three-year moving average. That's if this correction does indeed continue. A full pullback to the red circle and the $3,000 area is less likely. But looking at the chart, you can understand why it might happen because we had this historic breakout above this rising orange resistance line. And, you know, there is a logic behind this coming all the way back down to test that. Seems unlikely at this point, but you can't disregard it, particularly when you've got this break in momentum. The monthly distance from 36-month moving average momentum has broken down. And when that happens, well, here we had a three-year pause, consolidation. Um, here we had a pause of consolidation that lasted, really, well, effectively from 2011 to 2023. So, you know, 12 years. And then they, you have these smaller, um, corrective periods. There's one there, notably in 2008, where we came down to test the three-year moving average, which may be similar. There may be a similar scenario to what we're seeing now. We may get the, um, 8-year cycle low coming in, um, around, well, it depends if you see the, the 8-year cycle low. There's one here in 2016, so the next one should have been in 2024, but it was an early one in late 2022. The 8-year cycle actually is 7 to 8.5 years. So, you know, we could have another early 8-year cycle low. It could be 7 years. So, it could be 2029, which is somewhere along here. And it's hard to imagine this coming down and down and down and down all the way to 2029. That seems unrealistic. So, what's I think is perhaps more likely is that we pull back as we're doing now, potentially to the three-year moving average, but not necessarily, then get another accelerated up phase towards the $8,000 area, and then we get the pullback into the 2029, um, area where we get a, perhaps another retest of the three-year moving average. In that scenario, it's highly unlikely that we ever retest this orange line. So, those are my thoughts on that at the moment. But one way or another, um, $8,000 is the next bull market target, somewhere in that region, I think. And then I suspect that isn't the end of the story. Uh, I, I do think that, um, the final target is somewhere between sort of $15 and $20,000.
The Rosetta Stone for investing is this. It's the gold versus S&P ratio, which we've already looked at. And you can stop this podcast and read these, um, labels if you want to. Event number one, event number two, event number three. And where we are now is the process developing towards event number four. We must break out above that red line to set it in motion. And that would be the next capital rotation event in favor of gold.
Okay. Now, moving all the way back to the start and going through the charts that we haven't looked at. And I will, um, in, in the interest of time, I will, um, skip over some of the ones that aren't giving any strong signals or the ones that repeat signals we've already looked at. So, moving down through these charts, it's perhaps worth looking at silver versus, um, copper. And silver versus copper, I'm going to look at these on the monthly time frame. Um, has hit a, uh, resistance level. Um, you can see that on the chart there. We hit and actually briefly broke through that resistance zone and are now pulling back as silver underperforms copper, which is what we fully expected would happen. Um, we've got, um, the chart for silver versus NASDAQ, and that one is pulling back to where we suspected it probably would. You can see this red dotted line here. And it seems that silver versus NASDAQ is likely destined to test the red, what was resistance line, and now support line. How long it takes to form a base, um, remains to be seen. It could just hit that red support line and go straight up, or it could take, um, a period of time. I don't think it'll take that long. It might take 6 to 18 months to eventually break out to the upside again. Um, that's perhaps the more likely scenario. Um, so, moving on to, uh, the S&P versus silver ratio. And this one actually needs to be viewed on the quarterly time frame, just to draw the similarities out with the late 1960s and the early 1970s. So, I'm going to, um, just get rid of the, uh, what is going on here? Let me see if I can just minimize or hide that. Where's the minimize button gone? I'm just going to get rid of that. Um, okay. So, what we're looking at here is, as I said, the late 1960s, early 1970s, where we had this topping process on this ratio chart, and then as it started to break down in a major way, that's when silver is, uh, drastically outperforming the stock market. That was the super capital rotation event of the 1970s. We had a more regular capital rotation event here in the, uh, 2000s, where gold outperformed the stock market for around a decade. Um, so again, we've had this topping process and the breakdown. And it looks to me as though we've probably defined where the superc line is. It's probably going to be this red line, although it could possibly be the black dotted line that you can see there. We will need to wait and see how, how things sort of pan out. But we would be needing to see the stock market having a serious decline either as we cross the red line or as we cross this black dotted line, and that would be the capital rotation event. So, that's, but we're bouncing at the moment. That means that we have an unknown period of time where the S&P is going to outperform silver.
Okay, moving on to the miners. This is the SILJ chart, and silver junior miners. I gave you a trade setup there, and the trade is in progress. You can see the numbers for the entry, the exit, and the stop-loss. That's all playing out as, as intended. We've got silver versus inflation, which is always worth a look. And if I just zoom in a little bit onto the weekly time frame, or even the daily time frame, silver versus PPI, um, is in a similar expanding wedge pattern to silver versus the US dollar, um, which on this time frame, probably isn't too surprising. Um, so again, the support line is important in telling us this red, shorter red support line is important in telling us whether or not the silver correction is going to continue. A break below it will tell us that it is. And it would be, it would be nice if it did actually break down because it would complete the picture, and we would have a much higher degree of confidence that that is your entry point. That is your new low-risk, high-reward entry point. At the moment, we're sort of hanging in mid-air, halfway through a potential correction. Um, I mean, halfway through. I mean, it is a correction, but potentially halfway through that correction.
Silver volatility on the weekly time frame. Yeah, that's the best way of viewing that. So, when this thing spikes to the upside, that's high volatility. And when it comes down, it's decreasing volatility. Well, as things stand at the moment, we are seeing the volatility decrease. We've broken down from this rising red line at the top, and then we've broken down from this, uh, lower, uh, rising red line. So, we're heading down towards the first shaded red support zone, and then we may drop all the way down here to this lower red support zone, as perhaps the price of silver bottoms out and stabilizes and then moves up. So, one of these support zones, I think, is going to provide the, the level from which we build a, a base from which to break out.
Okay, GDX is looking like it's trying to break out on this weekly time frame from this, uh, descending channel. Not quite convincing. The breakout there isn't really convincing yet. We're right on the resistance line. So, the next move is going to be fairly important. And I think more important than that is the horizontal resistance zone. If we get above that horizontal resistance zone, then the trend is reversing again. The down, the current downtrend will be then transitioning into an uptrend for GDX. So, we're going to keep a close eye on how that pans out. We've already put in a higher low here, so that's interesting to see. Um, and you can follow the, our mining longer-term mining signals in the TNS with things like, uh, Aza, for example. And we've still got one of the miners, actually, I think it's WDOM gold in the SRS that needs to complete its move.
Okay, GDX versus Gold. This, these ratio charts are very important for telling us when we should be getting much more excited with, uh, the miners because they've been forming this base for many, many years now. And that red line there, break above that, you can't ignore that. You would have to be unbiased about that and say that, um, when we break out above that red line, uh, then you, you really should be thinking in terms of having some, um, positions with, uh, with GDX. So, that would be, um, significant for, for us to be looking at, um, SRS trades, for example. But, uh, regardless of SRS trades, do not forget that we have plenty of mining indicators and positions, mining companies and positions in the TNS. Um, and we have the indices in the, uh, DPM as well.
This is gold versus, um, um, sorry, it's the miners versus gold. Philadelphia gold and silver mining index versus gold. And, um, what we want to see here is an upside breakout to tell us that the miners are in, in favor. We're looking at the SIJ chart. Sorry, the SIL chart here, and similar sort of signal. So, I won't, um, labor the point. We've got GDXJ also giving a similar signal. We've got a trade setup here. In fact, two trade setups for GDXJ, which we gave you on the, on the breakout. Trade number one came within a, a few pennies of completing and hitting the profit limit, very annoyingly. It was, um, just a couple of cents short. Um, but it continues to play out. Trade number one is in profit, and so is trade number two. Trade number two has a higher profit limit and a lower stop-loss. I'll move the, um, chart across so that you can look at the trade setups. That's trade number one with the entry point, profit limit, and stop-loss, and the same for trade number two, on the, on the right there.
Okay, moving on to the gold silver ratio, which we've already, in fact, we've covered that, so I won't, uh, labor that point. This is the SIL versus silver chart. So, um, silver miners to silver ratio, and, uh, really, it's not done very much. If I put it on the monthly time frame and put the line chart on, it's not done very much for a number of years now. It's moved to the upside and then it's given up all those gains. So, really, you could say that all the way back to 2022, the miners and the metal have matched in performance. Uh, if you look back further, then clearly the miners have massively underperformed the metal over, uh, the last decade or more. In order to enter a bullish phase with a high degree of evidence, we need to be breaking out now above this black support and resistance line. Once above that, you've got a high degree of confidence that this thing is, is giving a real, real trend change signal. But until then, you could just get another upside move to the black line and then another rejection. And it could be, it could be, you know, another two, three years before this thing really breaks out, if indeed it does.
Silver junior miners versus silver, the signal is very clear on this. As long as we're below the resistance zone, silver is favored because the ratio is in a downtrend, which means that silver is outperforming silver junior miners. When we cross through the resistance zone, that would have told us that a signal has been given that we can be sort of equally exposed to silver miners and silver. And then if and when we break through the upper resistance zone, then silver miners are strongly favored. Now, this is the non, um, permeable view. This is, you know, you won't see this from very many accounts on social media because they will just say, dive into the miners, dive into the miners, you know, accumulate miners. Well, you can do that, but if you want to wait for evidence and be sure that you're doing the right thing, then, um, this is how you do it. If you want to just accumulate lots and lots of miners in this low zone here, that's fine. But I cannot guarantee for you that it's going to break to the upside. There are no guarantees. Life doesn't work like that. You can, you know, back here in September of last year, you might have thought, right, we're breaking out and silver junior miners are just going to massively outperform metal. What happened? They gave back all of their outperformance.
Okay, silver junior miners versus the S&Ps, different story, because, um, they've been much more strongly outperforming the stock market. So, silver junior miners, huge upside move, corrective pullback, which actually came back down to the resistance zone there. Just lift that line there to a tiny fraction to readjust the position based on the latest price action. So, we've tested the resistance, uh, zone. It's now support zone. So, silver junior miners look like they're likely to hold their own here, or quite potent, quite possibly start to move up again versus the S&P.
Gold versus the HUI index has formed a topping pattern, this yellow box. Um, so for the last 10 years, um, the HUI index and gold have performed equally because they've gone sideways versus each other. And if at any point we break below this yellow box, then that will be a strong signal that the HUI index is entering a, a likely multi-year period of, um, outperformance versus gold because when this chart goes down, it means that gold is underperforming the HUI index.
Okay, the HUI index itself looks fine. Um, whether or not we see the correction continue and test the black, um, support line as it is now, well, that remains to be seen. But overall, in terms of the big picture, um, you know, the target area could, or is potentially, very much higher than where we are now in a precious metals bull era. The, uh, Aza, gold and silver mining index, broke out above the paradigm shift breakout line. That's the red, uh, resistance line there, last year. And if we zoom in onto the weekly time frame, the latest price action, in fact, I'll go on the daily time frame. You can see what's going on here. We've got a descending channel. And if we break out above that descending channel, then we can be significantly more bullish on, uh, on Aza, which, by the way, GDX tracks Aza very, very closely.
Uh, Aza versus the S&P. So, gold, uh, gold miners, mainly gold miners versus the S&P. Um, we've broken out through that, that zone, um, and began to take off to the upside, and now we've back-tested the breakout. So, there are some signals from, from these charts that this backtest for the miners versus, um, the stock market, um, could be drawing to a close, which is interesting, given the stock market's doing very well at the moment. That, what does that mean? Does that mean the stock market's about to falter, or does it just mean that the stock market's going to do well, but the miners are going to, um, kind of explode to the upside? Well, uh, time will tell. Um, the Aza versus gold chart is up against strong resistance here, rising red resistance lines, and that descending, uh, red resistance line as well. If I just, uh, zoom in a little bit. So, that yellow circle there is a sort of an evidence cluster. If we can break through that, then a multi-multi-decade downtrend is over, and the gold miners are going to go, or likely to go nuts over, over a period of time. So, you know, that'll be a massive signal change. If, however, we don't break through that yellow circle, then it's just a rinse and repeat from what we've seen previously, which is that the, um, the miners, overall, even in a gold bull era, these orange zones are gold bull eras, by the way, it'll just be showing us that it's rinse and repeat, that the miners, um, overall underperformed the metal during the gold bull era. Even back here in the 2000s, the miners, as a strongly outperformed the metal for a period of time, and then they just matched the performance of the metal. So, you know, the miners and the metal were going up, but the ratio was going sideways, and then the ratio plummeted, and by the end of the, uh, gold bull era in 2011, the miners were actually, the miners were actually valued lower versus the metal than they were at the start.
Um, the same thing versus silver. Um, and again, similar sort of issue here. We are stuck in this orange box at the bottom, this rectangle. And if we get above that, or we break out of this orange rectangle, then that will be telling us that the miners are in a, in a phase where they can strongly outperform silver over a per, you know, a decent period of time. That makes it worth having significant positions. Um, GDX versus SIL is, um, gold miners or silver miners. Well, at the moment, um, the, the chart is dropping. So, that would suggest silver miners are still favored, but it's resting on support here. So, what happens next is going to be important.
Platinum futures, um, there's a bit of a similarity there with what was happening back in 2001, into sort of 2002. Big pullback to the edge of the arc, and then accelerated upside move. Well, similar sort of thing happening here on a bigger scale, I suppose. Um, whether we reach the edge of the arc, time will tell. But it's, um, going to be interesting to see if it does, or whether, um, platinum just rips to the upside. But what's important here, I keep saying platinum versus gold. Um, this is the chart to watch because until or unless this breaks out to the upside, then there's no reason to be positioned in platinum. You need to be, this ratio needs to be going up for platinum to be outperforming gold. And we've got a cluster of evidence here in the form of two resistance lines, the black one and the red one, the cloud, and the green 4-year moving average. And as long as we're below all of those, then platinum is not outperforming gold. If we can get above, or at least not in a meaningful way. If we break above them, then that would put platinum into a bull market versus gold. You can see each time it tries to break out, it gets rejected and turns down again, which is telling us that platinum is underperforming gold.
Platinum versus silver, um, same thing. Um, it needs to break through this red circle for us to be, um, wanting to move away from silver and towards platinum. Doesn't mean the platinum isn't doing well. It doesn't mean you can't have positions in platinum. It just means that if you want to be positioned in the stronger of the assets, then the stronger of the assets are gold and silver at the moment. Um, silver versus platinum, that's the same chart turned the other way up. Um, this chart needs to be breaking below that orange zone before we'll be looking at, um, at platinum. As long as the chart's moving up, it means that silver is outperforming platinum.
Palladium, uh, has hit that red resistance, uh, line or zone and been rejected. So, it's trying to break out but hasn't done yet. Silver versus palladium is moving strongly to the upside. That means silver is outperforming palladium, and palladium versus gold is not breaking to the upside. So, palladium is not outperforming gold. Palladium versus the S&P, um, did very well, bouncing on that support, uh, line there, and then breaking out through the horizontal red little resistance line, but now it's broken back down below that and could very well be coming back all the way to backtest the support. So, whilst the big picture would suggest that palladium is likely to be outperforming the S&P in the years ahead, this, uh, backtest is quite severe for palladium versus the S&P, and that's, uh, one of many. You know, we haven't, we haven't suggested being positioned in palladium, and plenty of reasons for that, as I've already explained there.
Copper futures looking fine. We have an SRS position in copper futures. We took the entry at around $5. The profit limit is eight, the stop loss at $3.99. And copper is doing just fine at the moment. It's $6.39, near enough. Um, GlobeX Copper Miners ETF looks fine as well. Nothing wrong with that chart. We're above the moving averages, above the cloud. Some sort of consolidation going on here at the moment, but, um, nothing particularly concerning. It looks like a bull market, uh, pause, consolidation. Um, this is copper versus the S&P, and this chart is going to be extremely useful, I think, for, um, really giving us a huge degree of confidence when it breaks out. So, copper is doing fine, but if and when it breaks out versus the S&P, here you can see what, uh, what happened last time. Above the moving average, above the Ichimoku cloud, and a massive bull run for copper versus the S&P. That's what we're suspecting is likely to happen, um, at some point in the not too distant future. And when it does, um, all of you members here are going to know about it. We're going to let you know about it first. And you can, um, you can benefit from that if you, if you want to look at, um, copper in the, um, I think we've got copper miners in the DPM. Copper. Um, it's certainly in the SRS. Um, and we may even have a copper, copper in the, in the TNS. I forget. I think we, I think we do actually have copper in the TNS, which is doing very well. I think it gave an earlier entry signal even than the SRS did. Um, CPER is the copper index fund, and that's looking fine as well.
Copper miners versus copper, um, continuing in its uptrend, above the moving average, above the Ichimoku cloud. So, copper and copper miners are all looking good. Gold versus copper is moving down. That's what we thought would happen after we got into this resistance zone. We had to be a little bit imaginative with where we drew the, uh, resistance zone in the end, but it, it did actually end up fitting that, um, spike there in 2009. It fitted with the spike here that we've just had. So, it led us to believe that the most likely next move was down. So, gold underperforming copper, and that's what's happened. Um, copper versus silver. Well, we suspected that after hitting support, that the most likely move there was up, which means copper would outperform silver. And that's what's happening. I've said that my initial target is that black horizontal, it was a support line. It's now going to be a resistance line. So, up to that point, copper is likely to outperform silver. What happens there, we'll just have to wait and see on the, um, on the daily sort of time frames whether we build a, a bullish consolidation there from which to break up, or whether it starts to, um, look like a nasty move back to the downside with silver outperforming copper. But for, for a little while, yeah, I think copper is likely to outperform silver.
Um, the AER index versus COPEX. So, this is gold and silver miners versus copper miners. Um, and you can see the charts broken down. So, um, at the moment, it looks as though, um, gold and silver miners are likely to underperform copper miners. Um, unless we are building a larger pattern that looks something like that. Um, at the moment, this, this bit here looks like a false breakout, and that now looks like a breakdown, but, uh, I'm just going to draw in that line there, just to see how that pans out over time as well. But, uh, at the moment, it looks as though the copper miners have slightly got the edge.
Nickel futures looking, um, like they want to move towards an eventual breakout, an upside move, but hasn't done it yet. So, we need to just remain, um, cautiously optimistic on that one.
Tin futures, uh, a nice big upside breakout from a rising wedge. You see how energetic those upside moves can be, uh, from these rising wedge patterns, and that looks great above, uh, the moving average and above the Ichimoku cloud. So, tin looks good.
Aluminum, or aluminum. Um, that one's looking great in terms of reaching the upside target, which is the red line somewhere. It might be around 4300 and, uh, 50 or 4360, that sort of area.
The VANX Steel ETF, that one looks, um, very strong there, starting to break out above previous, um, highs, which I presume were all-time highs here. The chart starts there in 2006, but I presume that point there in '08 was an all-time high, but, uh, we're, we're now above that, um, on the, well, actually, we're actually not quite above it, are we? Because the peak on that candle, just a little bit higher than where we are now, is 100, uh, $100.91. And at the moment, we're just a little bit below that at, sorry, was that $100.91? Let me get that. $114.12. And we're a bit below that at the moment. So, just a few dollars below that all, all-time high, but looking strong above the moving average, above the cloud.
Zinc futures looks great above the moving average, above the cloud. That's in a bullish, um, uptrend, doing well. Wisdom Tree Zinc, one way of playing that, looks good as well. Should steadily track towards the upper resistance lines, somewhere near $20 or so. We're at 12 at the moment.
Zinc versus gold starting to reverse there, but we've just. It's tricky this, you know, we, until we break through that red circle, we can't have a high degree of confidence, um, that zinc is going to move into a strong bullish phase versus gold. This is it on a weekly time frame. But on the monthly time frame, we want to break through that, uh, through that red circle. Otherwise, all it is is a breakdown and another backtest of that breakdown that's going to reverse. And of course, if the chart goes down, it means zinc is underperforming gold. So, it's a little bit early yet to be, um, jumping on the zinc bandwagon. Um, this is more of a, um, a wait and see sort of scenario.
The, uh, roodium chart, Xtrackers Physical Rhodium looks like it's building a bullish, uh, pause, consolidation here, but got to break through that red circle before we really unleash a big move for Rhodium that might be comparable to the one that took place, uh, 2018 to what was that 2021.
Okay, iron ore spot not doing anything exciting there. So, we're going to move on. Uh, the Invesco Base Metals Fund DBB is looking just fine. Um, it's a cup and handle pattern, sitting right at the neckline, if you want to call it a neckline. The top of the cup and handle. Eventually, I think the orange price target is realistic, up around 40. The red, uh, secondary target up around 62, 63 is very plausible. Um, so that, that's not, you know, it's not an unreasonable target should the, um, should the price continue to move above the 12 and 36-month moving averages, but that looks perfectly fine at the moment.
Uranium now, interesting. It's been taking a long time to really get going again, and the consolidation is continuing below that red dashed line. So, we've done, done the right thing here in keeping you cautious on uranium. Ever since we hit the arc target area, the uranium miners, of course, we've got Cameco in the TNS there, and we've got a couple of others in there as well. Cameco's done incredibly well. I think it's up around about 5, 600% since the entry. Um, and this is the, the mining ETF, which shows the more generalized picture. A lot of the uranium miners are not doing anywhere near as well as Cameco. Of course, that comes in the next phase of the bull era, which is going to be when we start to break out, move towards and above the arc target, which is anywhere between about $1 and $120 is where the arc target is. So, the pause and consolidation continues for the uranium miners.
And uranium miners versus gold, uh, not yet, um, showing the buy signal that we're looking for. We need to see the ratio move through that red circle for uranium miners to give a, a buy signal over gold. We've got uranium miners versus silver. Same thing. Hasn't given a signal yet. Uranium miners versus gold and silver miners, or versus Aza. Same thing. Hasn't given the signal yet. URA versus the metal, just fine. Um, uranium miners versus the metal broke out, big upside move, above the three-year moving average, above the cloud, just consolidating, and that could continue for many, many months. We just.
Have to be patient for uranium miners versus the metal sugar. Nothing to get us excited, uh, yet. Um, the big picture is quite, quite exciting. If you zoom out and look at the big picture, uh, that's got huge potential for the future. You can see a symmetrical triangle, and within that, we've got, um, an arc pattern that could very well guide sugar towards a breakout. And then we've got a, a 5 to almost a 5 to 1, 4 and a half to 1 reward to risk setup, setup there. Uh, but sugar is, is one that's on the back burner.
Soybean futures on the monthly time frame there, uh, close to breaking out through the red circle that I've been highlighting for quite a long time now. Soybean futures, um, just on the cusp of a potential important breakout. And corn futures, um, not broken out yet. So, we've got to be patient with that. Uh, the Turkan corn fund, again, nothing really dramatic happening there at the moment. We broke above that, uh, blue resistance line, but that doesn't really mean very much. We've got to get more weight of evidence.
We've got wheat futures in there again. The breakout, little bit of a, um, pullback consolidation taking place here. It's a messy chart, wheat futures. I, very hard to play, um, because when you get a breakout above the moving average, it doesn't necessarily mean you're going to get very big gains before the whole thing just rolls over again. So, it's interesting to keep an eye on that chart, but I can't imagine that we would ever be tempted to to play it. Uh, oat futures, that one's got a nice, um, descending red resistance zone there, those two red lines. Again, whether we would play it, probably not on that monthly time frame, but maybe on that weekly time frame, a breakout above those red resistance lines would give a, a target of 491 or so. So, that could be playable. Um, something like this. So, you wanted a convincing breakout on the weekly closing basis. So, you might enter somewhere there. Your stop loss would be below the swing low. So, hopefully, you get a swing low that's somewhere in that region. And you can eke out a 3 to 1, uh, reward to risk before you start hitting that wall of wall of resistance there. So, that, um, that's worth, worth a thought, I think.
Okay. Cotton futures. Um, again, looking on the weekly time frame here, breakout from this descending wedge pattern, back testing at the moment. The initial area that I want to see us breaking out of is around about 94. Uh, and if that can happen, then I think we'll be much more likely to head up towards the $150 area.
Coffee futures, nothing there yet to, um, give us any, um, any real signs of signs of hope. Uh, coffee futures, huge pullback taking place at the moment. Cocoa futures, bit of a bounce, uh, off the support down near the bottom there, but we've actually pulled back a long way from 4,800 to 3,900, um, area. So, as I've said before, this thing could bounce around down here for quite a long time before we get any kind of renewed breakout.
The DB, excuse me, too much talking. I'm just going to have a sip of water. Okay. The DB agriculture fund is in a, uh, stairstepping pattern, uh, trending upwards at the moment. There was an entry there as we broke out. Now we're come, we're pulling back quite substantially here, back testing, but that trade is still, uh, perfectly valid. Um, nothing, nothing wrong with that, but we might want to consider the possibility of an expanding wedge pattern developing here. Um, that looks quite plausible, doesn't it? Um, we'll just highlight that in red, I think, so that we have our attention drawn to it. This is how chart patterns evolve over time. So, what you thought was a descending wedge pattern based on the candle chart, um, needs modifying as time goes by. And I think I can get rid of that now. And so that is, uh, potentially going to just pull back and then break out above that red line there. We've had three touches at the top there. So, what quite often happens is that you get the pullback and then the breakout that takes you higher. But of course, it's, uh, certainly possible that we come all the way back down to test the support line here. So, that's, uh, the DB agriculture fund.
The Turkum agriculture fund is, um, or hasn't yet broken to the upside. So, we need to be patient to see if that does at some point break to the upside.
Lithium futures looking pretty strong there. I put it on the weekly time frame above the, um, 36-week moving average, above the Ichimoku cloud. Um, yeah, lithium looks, looks fine there at the moment.
The Invesco DB commodity index tracking fund DBC looks fine. Breakout above the red line there. Um, although it only had two touches on the red line. The candle on the breakout did acknowledge that red line because it, it paused there on the monthly close and then kind of gapped above it. So, that over time, I would expect to trend to the upside and the target somewhere around about $40.
Bloomberg commodity index futures. Well, that one, similar sort of breakout thing there where, um, we only had the two touches on that red breakout line, but the, uh, the candles there, depending how you interpret them, um, if we position the line like that, then that candle was, candle close was right on, um, the red breakout line. It's a little bit sketchy how you place the red line here with these wicks and candle bodies, but it's a zone of support and resistance. I would say that whole area is a zone of support now. Um, and, uh, looks fine as long as we're above a rising, um, 12-month moving average, which we are. That's the red line there. Then that's all good.
The CRB chart now. Thompson Reuters CRB chart and, uh, this is a bullish looking chart. We've broken out above the moving average, above, well above both moving averages, above the Ichimoku cloud. Um, that's the 4-year moving average in green and the 12-month moving average in red. Um, and despite whatever pullbacks and consolidations we might have along the way, this still looks very bullish.
Oil now. Uh, we've covered oil previously. So, that's just a quick view of the big picture as a reminder. That orange box is where I'd said we would likely correct and consolidate. And that's exactly what's happening at the moment. Correction, consolidation box. And a future breakout move above, uh, $115, $120 takes us up to $200, $300 over time.
Oil versus gold in a downtrend still. Um, we've got, uh, global Newcastle coal futures. Um, and that has broken out from this weekly defined resistance line. Um, harsh backtest going on there, or harsh backtest took place. But it does look as though it's gaining a little bit of momentum here and may start to move a little bit more strongly to the upside. But, uh, until we move through that yellow circle there, the evidence is still fairly weak.
The Vanic Oil Services ETF is, um, progressing, uh, quite nicely through that potential trade setup there that we've given you. Um, and as long as we are above that horizontal red support line, then I've got no worries about that. The oil services ETF looks okay.
The XLE chart, energy select sector, breakout above this rising black line and the red horizontal line, above the moving average, above the Ichimoku cloud. Uh, so it's a bullish uptrend currently undergoing a corrective, uh, period. XLE versus gold is in an overall big picture downtrend. So, energy versus gold is underperforming. If we have a breakout above this upper black resistance line, then something dramatic would be happening. That's not the case at the moment, though.
Uh, XOP, oil and gas exploration and production, breakout from the, uh, expanding flag pattern or pennant pattern, um, and upside breakout. Now we're back testing the breakout. It's normal chart behavior. Little bit disappointing that it hasn't just continued straight to the upside. We didn't get the monthly close above the entry point there. So, the trade, uh, didn't become active or hasn't become active. I've put the entry point just above that horizontal wall of resistance, that black dotted line. Um, you could enter anytime anywhere between this red red line here and that, you know, just above the black dotted line, but, um, I'll leave that to your judgment if you want to play that particular chart.
The US dollar index is, uh, still keeping everybody guessing. It's bouncing around in this little wedge pattern here. And depending on how you draw the support zone, you can draw it so that the price is just above the support zone. I've got it drawn here with a price just below the support zone, which I think is a fair representation of what's what's happening. The expanding wedge we've broken down from, and we're now in a contracting pattern. So, a decision will come, uh, and that will give us, um, a high degree of confidence for what comes next.
The Euro dollar has broken out. So, the euro is in a new uptrend versus the US dollar, and it has been for about four years now. The Swiss Frank has been in an uptrend versus the US dollar for, um, a few decades, um, and, um, has broken out again. And in a gold bull era, you would fully expect this to move ever upwards with the Swiss Frank very strongly outperforming the US dollar.
The British pound versus, uh, the US dollar is in an uptrend. Um, it's broken out a series of higher lows. It's above the, um, 36-month moving average there. It's above the Ichimoku cloud. So, overall, uh, the pound is bullish versus the, the dollar at the moment. Not strongly bullish, I would say, but just, um, moderately bullish. Uh, we need more, uh, evidence and more, um, corroboration from this ratio chart that it's going to continue to the upside.
The Aussie dollar versus the dollar is looking increasingly bullish. So, the Aussie dollar looking, um, increasingly strong versus the, the US dollar. And the Canadian dollar, not, not so yet. It's still, or has still been attempting to break out versus the US dollar and so far has failed to do so. So, we can't give any bullish signals for that, that one yet. Uh, and certainly can't for the yen either. The yen is very much underperforming the US dollar and has been for a long time.
The euro versus the pound hasn't given a breakout or a breakdown signal yet. We're going to keep tracking that because if it does break either of those resistance or support lines, then that will be a major, major signal, uh, that some people might be able to take advantage of in currency trading.
Okay. Looking at the S&P, we've already, in fact, we already did that. So, I'm not going to do that again. The S&P volatility index is, um, declining at the moment, but, uh, over time, if we look on the monthly time frame, over time, what's been happening is we've been building a gradual uptrend here that may eventually lead to a bigger move, but nothing too, you know, nothing too dramatic going on at the moment.
Nvidia, although it's down a little bit there on, on Friday. Um, let me just zoom right in. Nvidia broke out from that, um, descending wedge pattern as it turned out to be. And I'll just put, pop it on the candles because I think on the candle chart, you could just about argue that we hit the upper resistance line there. Uh, and we've been declining since we, since we hit that level. Um, but overall, I can't say that it's bearish. Overall, we're still above, even on the weekly chart, we're above the 12-week, uh, moving average, and we're above the 48-week moving average. So, Nvidia is still fine. And as long as we're above that horizontal support zone there at 191, uh, then, or 190 to 191, as long as we're above that, uh, it's not, um, it's not reasonable to be particularly bearish.
The NASDAQ is, um, trying to break out. Um, in fact, on a weekly, it's not convincing enough that I don't know, I don't know, actually, because I need to lower that. Let me just do that. I think that's a breakout on the weekly time frame. Yeah, it is. It's a breakout and a backtest. So, that puts the NASDAQ into meltup territory. Um, the breaking out from a rising resistance line is very bullish, and it shows, uh, what it shows is that you're entering an accelerated phase of upside price movement. So, targets for this, if, um, if the move is able to continue, I would suggest that, let me just think about this, potentially that full move could be repeated. So, in terms of price, 42,000. Um, in terms of time, I think it'll be more rapid. So, I suspect the angle of ascent is going to be more like, more like that. Uh, so 40, in the low, somewhere in the low 40s seems entirely reasonable at the moment.
The Dow Jones, um, is breaking out slowly from its resistance. It's not quite conclusive yet. There's a black resistance line there that it needs to get through, somewhere in the region of 51 and a half thousand. But the Dow Jones is also in a rising wedge pattern. And if that one breaks out, then we could see a move that takes us to at least 58, 59,000. Notice I'm not measuring, I don't measure from the bottom to to the top of that move. It's more realistic to measure from the breakout. So, you would take the breakout to be here, somewhere in there, and then the move was that, oops, was that. So, again, it would probably be more rapid, but the target is somewhere around about 50, 59, 60,000, I think, from a measured move perspective.
Anyway, the Russell 2000 is in a rising expanding wedge. So, it might have a harder time breaking out from that rising expanding wedge, but the Russell's doing just fine. The Japanese Nikkei is doing just fine as well, accelerating to the upside. And they're just going to add zeros, I suppose, in terms of the financial situation and money printing and all the rest of it. So, um, stock markets, um, over time, they just, even when you get 40, 50% corrections, over time, they just end up reversing and powering to the upside. So, um, anyway, the Japanese Nikkei is absolutely fine. Minutes above the 12 and 30, uh, 48-week moving averages and no sign of breaking below any of those moving averages. So, that's looking all good.
The Footsie, not quite so good. It's putting in a series of lower highs here at the moment on the weekly time frame. Uh, but we haven't broken below the 10,300 area yet. If we start moving down to 10,200, even 10,000, then that starts to look a little bit more, uh, troublesome. But for the time being, the Footsie is okay.
The Hansen index, not breaking out above that confluence of resistance that we keep referring to, the red line and the black line. So, we can't be, um, overly bullish on the Hen till it breaks through that.
The, uh, what we got here? This is the SSE composite, uh, index. Um, and the SSE composite is, um, looking absolutely fine there, actually. Uh, we've got the, uh, target at around 4,430. So, that's the, the Chinese stock market, of course, the SSE composite. Um, so, all looking, um, looking good. No problems there. As long as we're above that rising 12-period moving average, then, uh, then it's fine. I'm just going to take a look at, uh, let me move that back down again. Yeah. Okay. I'll move that down. Okay. Okay.
The X Chuck Harvest CSI 300 China A Series ETF has hit my targets. I'd said the target was 37, and we've hit 37 on, uh, $37 on that. So, that's now a profit-taking area, uh, where we are now, as a profit-taking level, and then the next, um, entry would be on a clearly defined breakout above that black resistance line. Um, we'll have a look at that if it happens.
The Chinese stock market versus, um, gold and US dollars has been doing terribly over the, over the years. Chinese stock market massively underperforming gold. If we break through that red circle, then that, that would very much change the picture, but it hasn't happened yet. Chinese stock market versus the NASDAQ is, uh, is plunging still. So, nothing, um, nothing to suggest that you should be really involved in the Chinese stock market. You should just be involved in the NASDAQ if you're wanting to play stocks.
The ASX 200 is looking fine. It's still above that blue rising support line. Target area, if the uptrend continues, would be this black, uh, rising resistance line, which might be somewhere around or close to 10,000.
The NASDAQ emerging markets look, looking fine. It's trending nicely now. So, as long as we're above that rising 12-month moving average, we can just say that we are in a nice uptrend. Um, we have broken out from the resistance which was somewhere around about there. So, NASDAQ emerging markets looking strong here, and just ride the trend would be my suggestion on that one if you want to be involved in that.
The Nifty 50, not the strongest of the stock indices. It's trending sideways at the moment, and we can turn bullish on that again once we break out above that red line. Uh, if we break, start breaking below this red line, the lower red line, then, um, that would be a little bit more of a, of a concern. For the time being, it's just in a sideways consolidation.
The S&P TSX composite index is looking strong above a rising 12 and 36-month moving average. So, again, trending strongly, and that's a good, uh, a good index to play if you want to, um, just ride the trend.
Okay. The, um, European stocks versus US stocks, um, then the answer is no. You shouldn't be in European stocks rather than US stocks. And the, uh, stocks, Europe stocks 50 versus the S&P is giving the same signal.
We looked at some of the crypto stuff. So, I'll, I'll skip Bitcoin and Ethereum because we've covered, uh, well, no, I'll show them again, but I'll cover them briefly. The, um, the crypto total market cap is still in that corrective, um, rising channel, um, in a bare market, though, below the, um, 50-week moving average, below the Ichimoku cloud. Um, so, it's in a, it's in a bare market at the moment, crypto total market cap. And if we look at crypto total market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, that is also in a bearish trend below the moving average and below the Ichimoku cloud.
Bitcoin, just briefly, um, has broken down, is below the 50-week moving average, below the Ichimoku cloud. It's broken down from this rising wedge pattern that had been forming on the, uh, on the daily time frame there. You can see it on the daily, um, rising wedge breakdown. Um, so, Bitcoin looking, uh, fairly weak here at the moment.
Ethereum also looking, uh, fairly weak. It's got some problems. If it breaks below that support zone, if we ever fall below $1,900, Ethereum would be in serious trouble. Um, and that would be heading, at least initially, it would be heading to the support around about a thousand or 1100. Um, and if that, uh, support around about 1100 was to fail, then it would be, um, disastrous, as Bitcoin, as Ethereum returns, um, down to somewhere in the region of probably a couple hundred. But, uh, we'll tackle that as the signals develop.
Bitcoin dominance is, um, in a slow uptrend here with a series of higher lows. So, Bitcoin dominance is, um, slowly still trending to the upside, you could say. Bitcoin versus NASDAQ looks absolutely terrible. Um, nasty, nasty breakdown. Bitcoin is massively underperforming tech stocks at the moment.
Bitcoin, sorry, Total 2 versus Bitcoin. Um, so, this is one of the measures for altcoins versus Bitcoin, is, um, not broken to the upside. So, there is no alt season. Bitcoin versus gold looks, um, bad as well. Um, we saw the capital rotation process, um, kind of killing Bitcoin's usual advance versus gold. Usually in a bull market, Bitcoin does that versus gold. It just goes vertical. Look at the previous bull market. Bitcoin versus gold. Massive, massive upside move. Massive upside move. And then in this bull market, it just started to break out. Did a triple top, rolled over, and moved into a bare market. So, Bitcoin, uh, underperforming gold to a very large degree at the moment. Um, and is currently breaking down from a rising wedge pattern. So, that's bearish for Bitcoin versus gold.
Bitcoin versus silver, same thing. Bearish, nasty breakdown. Total 3 versus Bitcoin. Um, so, another measure of altcoins versus, uh, versus Bitcoin. And interestingly, Total 3 showing some signs here of actually breaking out versus Bitcoin. So, I'm going to just readjust that resistance line, I think, uh, and move it to there. Uh, I think that's probably a better positioning. Um, so, if we break out above or through, or should I say, if we break out through this evidence cluster where we've got, um, a number of things like the resistance line, the moving average, the Ichimoku cloud, then we can be more bullish for Total 3 versus Bitcoin, which would be an interesting development if Bitcoin's underperforming the stock markets and gold.
Others versus Bitcoin also just, um, bouncing to the upside here at the moment. So, um, it, overall, it still looks quite bearish. It's in a consolidation in the midst of a downtrend, but if this does break out, then you observe that evidence and act on it without any bias. So, you would have the altcoins strongly outperforming Bitcoin if this goes up. Um, we'll see if that can happen.
Total 3 crypto total market cap excluding Bitcoin. This is Total 3 ES excluding the stable coins as well. And this one is a breakdown below the moving average, below the cloud, in some kind of, um, rising channel pattern here at the moment. Uh, and, uh, that's not, um, usually very bullish. Um, so, we'll just keep tracking that and see how it develops over time. We'll get a signal eventually, either with an upside breakout or a downside breakdown. And I'm just looking at that now. I'm wondering if I can do that with it. I think I can. So, I get rid of those and, uh, and leave it like that for now. A break above that rising red line would be significant. Um, so, we'll wait and see if we get that signal.
Okay. Stable coins. Uh, oh, bit of a breakdown going on there at the moment. So, stable coins having broken out above that resistance line are dropping. Not quite sure what that means particularly, but it's, um, other than the fact that it's, they're showing some, some weakness here. So, stable coin market cap is, uh, dropping.
Okay. Um, Hut 8 is doing well. Um, they've diversified, of course. They're not just involved in, in Bitcoin mining anymore, which is probably a good thing. Um, and the chart's gone pretty much vertical. So, whatever Hut 8 is, uh, is doing and whatever they're involved in or thinking of getting involved in, the market likes it. And the aggregate of market participants is, uh, telling us that, telling us so with a move, the breakout from $35 up to 124.25 looks, looks strong. And, uh, Hut 8 versus Bitcoin is, is going a bit sort of vertical at the moment. So, Hut 8 massively outperforming Bitcoin.
Bank of America now, uh, looking at the financials. Bank of America is in an uptrend versus the US dollar, um, which is all good, um, for the time being. But Bank of America versus gold, we've got a breakdown going on there. And, um, the, um, the chart, or the ratio of Bank of America versus gold is now below the Ichimoku cloud, below the 4-year moving average, below that, um, rising black support line. So, an early warning sign perhaps, as we had back in 2005 and 2006, even into 2007, an early warning sign of potential problems to come.
The Baltic Dry index is moving strongly to the upside now. The ARC has held. Uh, the pattern has held, and, uh, we're seeing, um, strong moves for the Baltic Dry index.
The TLT chart is in a nasty bare market, 20-plus year Treasury bond ETF, and there is no bullish signal from that.
Civilian unemployment is, um, just, uh, rising steadily at the moment. A little bit of a pullback, but it's in an uptrend. And of course, when you get these uptrends and you get these breakouts, you tend to get these, um, periods of recession. You can see each time going back through history, these green zones representing when we had a recession, and, uh, it's when the civilian unemployment rate moves out and breaks out to the upside. So, keep an eye on that one.
Okay. Moving on now to the 10-year yield. And the 10-year yield, um, is consolidating. We've had a 40-year downtrend where, um, the 10-year yield fell from, uh, wherever it was, somewhere around 14% or something, I think at one point, no, 16%. Um, and if we look at the similarities with the 1960s and '70s, um, you can see that in the 1960s, the, having broken out from a multi-decade downtrend, the 10-year yield, um, consolidated around about four, 4 and a half percent before breaking more strongly to the upside. And, uh, that is what's, um, happening here at the moment. We've had a 40-year downtrend for the 10-year yield, and then we are now consolidating in the sort of 4 to 4 and a half percent area. Similar backdrop in many respects to what we had back then. And so the thesis is that the stock market eventually, after this rally, the stock market stumbles and ends up going nowhere for a multi-year time frame as, as bond yields rise. So, that's, that's the yellow zone there after this consolidation that equates to what happened between the sort of late 1960s and 1980. Um, and that is the post-capital rotation event, uh, era.
Okay. The VANC high yield, um, ETF, junk bonds, pretty bearish really on the monthly time frame. Break down below the moving average, below the Ichimoku cloud there. Uh, the investment grade corporate bond ETF, um, is in a rising wedge kind of a pattern. Doesn't usually work out very well in the end, but we'll continue to track that.
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, um, is, um, indicative very often of, uh, recession risk, a little bit like the civilian unemployment was there. And you can see when the 10-year yield, uh, minus the 2-year yield, um, breaks out from that red zero line at the bottom. So, when the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield dips below or interacts with the red zero line, then moves back above it, you tend to get a crisis of some kind and a recession. Each of these green zones is a recession. So, maybe we have a recession coming at some point in the future. Um, the crises are pretty evident, I think. Uh, so, plausible deniability and destruction from, um, from, uh, those in charge of, um, you know, politics and economics. You know, you get a lot of, um, fairy stories banded around to distract from what the real problem is. And the real problem is a monetary one, of course. Um, and so that gives us a high likelihood of ongoing high impact events. Um, you, and you have to look around the world at the moment to see that that is the case, both in terms of, uh, at the moment, geopolitics, but I suspect eventually, uh, major market, uh, disruptions.
Okay. Uh, that is it, I think. Um, I had said that, um, I would include live cattle futures and a couple of other charts there. Um, the dollar versus rupee chart. I'll put, um, I think I'll drop those into the, um, into the list maybe for for next week, but I don't want to make the list too long because it's going to make these podcasts, uh, too long. Okay. That's it from me for now. I hope you got some value from that. Hope you enjoyed that, and I hope you enjoy your weekend as well. Bye-bye for now.