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Last time it was a lesson for Iran, the last war. It must be the final war. We must ensure that America can no longer use force against Iran in the future. Diplomacy should be used, but it cannot solve the problem. Therefore, it might be a case of an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth. Iran has a very high capacity for flexibility, survival, and pain tolerance. We see the question of how to solve it. The core issue is the Strait of Hormuz. Allowing free passage for ships. Don't forget that Hormuz is the only bargaining chip Iran has. Many diverse products [singing sound] [music] for over 70 years and will always take care of you. [Music] Actually, I see it and say that the chance of sending troops into the ground is less than 10%. Let's say 90% won't send them. But if they go crazy and send them, it's good luck for Iran. Good luck for Iran to have a decisive battle and then never come back again. The game ends. I think there are many smart people in the White House. Someone must have stopped Trump, saying don't do it, don't do it. Because it's suicide. So Trump has to listen to the people around him, unless he has incompetent people around him who want to please their boss. That would be the downfall of the United States. Many people say yes. Many people say the problem is that Trump doesn't listen to the people he should listen to, like the CIA, like the army, right? >> Uh >> But he chooses to listen to people he shouldn't listen to, like the Prime Minister of Israel, like Mossad, or the [coughing sound] of warmongers. The result is what it is today. Entering a war with no way out. >> The first lesson already said it was wrong. >> Are they going for a second time? So I think President Trump is probably reasonably smart. Not stupid. But maybe he makes mistakes, makes errors, which is normal for humans. So I think he won't go for a second time. I think there might be a more brilliant plan than we think. For example, he keeps bombing, bombing, until maybe there's something deep inside, where the CIA has done something. Maybe there's something we can't see yet. In another two or three days, we'll know. After this week passes, if there's a brilliant plan, it will come out. If not, prepare to go home, defeated. I don't understand why anyone would foolishly get stuck. Why do it? If it were easy to guess, it would be good. But if it's hard to guess, it's a charm. We have to wait and see. As an analyst, I consider this answer to be non-existent. Economically, Donald Trump is confident in the US economy to the point that he's not afraid of rising oil prices. That means he has something up his sleeve. But on the ground, in the war, if he has something, we might have to wait. Wait a week to see if he takes strong action until Iran asks for negotiations. Do you think Iran will agree to negotiate again? >> Last time was a lesson for Iran. >> I still believe this, Khun Thani, that Iran is fighting a war based on a certain logic, which is the concept of "The Last War." >> It must be the last war. This means we must be sure that America can no longer use force against Iran in the future. If not, it will happen again and again, which is not beneficial for Iran. If we consider it, on Iran's side, the hardliners seem to have a lot of influence right now. They might not believe in the negotiation approach as before. They have been given a chance, a chance to negotiate, to use diplomacy, but it cannot solve the problem. Therefore, they might resort to an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth. Wherever America attacks, they will attack back, until it puts pressure on America itself to stop, whether it's political, military, or economic pressure. Iran has a very high capacity for flexibility, survival, and pain tolerance. We have seen past lessons. So, to answer whether it depends on anything, I think Iran is ready to fight, to defend the country. It depends on when America stops. When will America stop? >> Iran's retaliation, if I had to guess, would be limited, but there might be a certain amount that could last for another 3 or 6 months with reinforcements from China and Russia, and then it could last long-term. But I don't think the United States can endure long-term because of the budget. As I said, will Congress approve it? If Congress doesn't approve it, it's like tying their hands. They can't go anywhere. So I think it also depends on Congress, whether Congress approves the budget of 70 trillion. 70 trillion is about 2.6 trillion baht. It's enormous. The weapons themselves that America is replenishing, I think they are limited, especially the bases in the Middle East that were destroyed, or even the planes that were brought in to replenish. In this situation, they say they are at full capacity, which is about 66 planes at Jordan, and another 60 at Bahrain. If they attack simultaneously and heavily, for about 10 days, let's say 10 days, then another 10 days, making it 20 days, and Iran still hasn't moved, hasn't flinched at all, I think Trump will have to find a way to negotiate. But you said earlier that Iran wouldn't negotiate, meaning Trump has to retreat silently. Because there's no negotiation, meaning Iran doesn't react, doesn't respond. You attack, I attack back. You attack, I attack back. You stop, I stop. No talking, is that what you mean, professor? >> Yes, the initiative, or the cessation of force, I think Iran is waiting for America to be the one who wants to stop. I agree with you, Khun Thani, that everyone has limitations. America uses a large amount of resources every day, a large number of missiles, a large amount of money spent every day. It's enormous, isn't it? Are these things limited? Definitely limited. And there's no way they can keep bombing for months at the same rate. It's impossible. Don't forget, America is not fighting on the ground. America needs to fire missiles, use drones, to fire them. The value of each missile is enormous. Not only that, but they are limited in quantity, and the production rate is slow. Meanwhile, Iran has what is called an asymmetric warfare front. Their missiles are cheaper, and they have been preparing for this kind of war for a long time. So, if they fight long-term, America will have to stop. And after stopping, what will happen next? I think after stopping, they will come to negotiate again. Perhaps the negotiation will become just a ceasefire, Khun Thani. >> Uh-huh. >> After this, right? There's no seriousness that it will solve the problem, right? >> Uh-huh. >> The question is how to solve it. The core issue is the Strait of Hormuz. >> Uh-huh. >> To make Iran accept, accept free passage for ships, right? >> Uh-huh, yes. >> Don't forget that Hormuz is the only bargaining chip Iran has, right? >> Politically. >> Right? >> Uh-huh. >> And in reality, after the past war, Iran has controlled this strait. Even if America opens it, it can't open it. It's a matter of trust, right? >> Uh-huh. >> Therefore, to talk and create an agreement, something that both sides agree on, and solve the problem. I think it might be difficult at this time. We might not want to call it conflict resolution, because why, Khun Thani? The problems are deeply rooted, and >> There are things that cannot be compromised, right? >> Uh-huh. >> But right now, mediators like Pakistan, Qatar, Oman, should focus on what can be done, which is conflict management. How to control the conflict so it doesn't escalate? How to prevent it from becoming a regional war where everyone gets hurt? That's what's more likely to happen. As for the expectation of a long-term solution, I think it's very difficult in the case of Iran and the United States. All that can be done is to tell both sides [coughing sound] not to let it escalate further. And continuing the war does not create a decisive military victory for any side. >> So, negotiate, negotiate vaguely, keep dragging it on to replenish weapons. Once weapons are replenished, they fight again. They fight, then stop and negotiate. It could drag on for years. But what Trump can't stand is if Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and can make oil prices whatever they want in the world. Whether they want to open it, close it, or do anything, they can make oil prices change. Then Donald Trump's power to control oil will disappear. And what Donald Trump will face is losing the election, losing it overwhelmingly. And after that, Donald Trump's real power to wage war or anything else will disappear. So I think Iran is better off waiting. Don't negotiate. Negotiate as a mere ceasefire, drag it on until November, and then see the situation again, what will happen to Donald Trump. And I don't think Donald Trump will win the election if he loses the war with Iran this much. But I've seen the news, and Iran is still strong. They still insist on not negotiating and say that Iran asked to negotiate, and I don't want to talk to them. And I think it's a drama. But I want the professor to analyze. If we look at it this way, Israel is still quiet. I think Israel will launch a major attack. A major attack into Iran to start a big war, so that Iran can't stand it anymore. It's not the US with Israel. Will they attack, assassinate, or cause the system to collapse? Is Israel likely to be the villain, the main villain who will crush Iran into the ground? Is it possible? >> Difficult. Difficult. >> I think Israel's true goal is to draw America into the war, right? And let America wage a prolonged war with Iran, making Iran weak. If they can cause the regime to collapse, that's the best. But if it can't collapse, then Iran must be weakened. And the support for Iran's allies might also weaken. Therefore, I think Israel's goal is to keep America in the war. Meanwhile, they themselves must manage their neighbors and groups that are enemies, especially in Lebanon, in Syria. That is what is likely to be Israel's goal, rather than expanding territory. Expanding territory. Israel's expansion. That cannot happen if Iran is strong. It cannot happen if America does not help protect Israel. So, in this case, I think Israel cannot stand alone anymore. To attack Iran directly might not align with the analytical approach I've presented. But Iran, right now, we see that Iran is focusing its attacks on American bases in Arab countries. Pressuring those Arab countries to pressure America, saying enough is enough, stop. And how to make American influence disappear, to change the order in the region. But if Iran continues to be attacked more and more heavily, it's not certain that Israel will become the main target for Iran after this. But there are differences in difficulty. Attacking American bases or infrastructure facilities in allied Arab countries, or countries close to Israel, like Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Jordan, etc. In reality, it's easier to do, Khun Thani. Meaning, these countries' defense systems, you see, they exist. And they are closer to Iran than attacking Israel, which is a thousand kilometers away. And Israel's defense system is strong, right? So it depends on Iran's goal right now. If the goal is to teach America a lesson, to cause losses, and to force America to stop the war, by America itself, by its allies. If this is the case, Iran might not target Israel at this time. But if America doesn't stop, continues to attack like this, I believe Iran will target Israel after this. 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