Is This A Wall Street Trap?

Today's number, guys, is a big one, 35, as we've just witnessed one of the largest moves ever recorded intraday for oil with billions of dollars being liquidated each way. On top of that, we've seen the potential of Wall Street's deadcap bounce. Everyone likes to buy the dip, but is this time a little bit different, hitting mean reversion and one of Wall Street's favorite indicators over the close of the session. So, what happens next as we hit crossorrelation on so many markets? And more importantly, do we see some hidden kind of movements going on underneath the hood? Today, we go through the big data, what's going on with macro, and of course, stocks, commodities, and cryptos heading into the next couple of sessions and into an inflation read. Guys, there's a lot going on right now. Join us as we cover everything that you need to know about markets today. See you soon.

Well, welcome back everybody to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson and today we're discussing the latest in macro, what's up with Wall Street and of course the key flows that have been defining the last 24 and 48 hours of trade. First up, we did see possibility of a dead cap bounce with big tech starting to rally through of course a bit of news. But more importantly, we need to look at the structure and the data which we'll be doing today along with some of those options flows. So we'll start off with what did happen in terms of the markets. We saw oil go all the way up to 120 a barrel and then get all the way crushed back down to 85 a barrel. And part of the reason is calls and part of the reason is options. And you'll see a moment why that may have occurred. We also saw that of course basically Trump came out and said the oil will continue to flow through the straight and the market used this as a reason to I guess you would say probably execute some massive positions when it came to options flow. Now why do we know this? Well, Subu Trade has already put this out. We had this in our previous video, which was call volume spiking leading into the weekend when it came to massive, massive, massive options positions. And you can see here when call volume goes like this, yeah, there is uh no doubt a squeeze and then often there is a huge fall-off from that event. And I think technically when oil hit that 120 a barrel, it was really a critical moment in the markets. As you guys know, around that 120 a barrel level is a multi- pretty much multi-deade high or at least a decade high. And the last time we saw levels like this was realistically back in uh the 200 kind of 7 period before of course the glo or during the global financial crisis. Now it is important to note that when oil does this type of stuff, it can create very bad structure underneath and it does tend to happen a little bit later cycle. that is that it tends to happen when sometimes we see further weakness in tech sectors moving forward and it is all to do with risk on and risk off in this case. Now you can see here Blue Kurt's put together an interesting chart which basically shows that when crude oil high to close percentage changes massively like it just did that that can be a huge huge inflection point for markets and we just don't usually see these types of uh movements. So we have to of course pay a lot of attention to the next couple of sessions particularly the next week uh and two weeks as we see further structure creation and this is where we get into the structure situation. How is the market actually reacting so far to everything that's going on? You can see here all the way from the 1940s how markets have reacted to certain different outbreaks and geopolitical tensions and some of them have acted you know I guess you would say to the positive side some of them have been to the negative side and everything in between but the general structure is usually if there's going to be a pullback and then the markets end up making a lower low let's say over the next kind of 50 days or so that that is usually quite a big negative towards markets um and it suggests that further the weaknesses coming through. Generally speaking, it's all about the initial couple of weeks to these events. And in many ways, the markets themselves have generally shrugged off these types of things, although this time could certainly be different based on the events that we're seeing so far. Let's have a look at why that could be. Well, energy stocks have actually gone up 11 consecutive weeks in a row. Now, we've been discussing this on the channel. oil services last year after the Fed did their rate cut became a very interesting sector in terms of flows. We then saw of course energy stocks start to move. We then saw oil barrels start to move on the channel around 3 to 4 weeks ago breaking downward trends. And this is all before of course the news broke of these situations. But when you tend to see this much movement in oil, it does open up potential weakness in the tech sector. And that one there was from Blue Curtic, but I've got one here from Polycarp FX. I retweeted this over actually on our channel FX Evolution over on X and what he did was he went through at least the last couple of years and found that in 2018 we saw a spike up a little bit in energy and then uh we actually saw some weakness. Now this was midterm election years. Now if you're familiar with midterm election years and the data surrounding them, they do tend to be pretty bad years uh historically from markets. So they're not they're kind of usually multiple sell-offs, multiple points of volatility, all of those types of things. But it was interesting to note here that the first half energy tends to do okay in both of the last two data points. And yes, it's only two data points. And the NASDAQ didn't do that well. You can see here it was up, down, all around, but generally speaking, it struggled a lot more, suggesting that again it was a later cycle style market movement. And this is exactly the type of thing we've been talking about on the channel when it came to the Fed rate cut and now what has been over like six months basically since the Fed rate cut. We'll have a special on that soon. So if you enjoy this type of content, remember to subscribe and smash that alert button because the structure is all important here post Fed rate cut. If we see big companies go, that's good. If we see small companies start to uh pick up, that actually suggests that there's a broadening, flattening kind of phase and things could get a little bit nasty fairly soon. Let's have a look at the VIX because the VIX got crushed after going right back up past the 30 barrier hit into the 35s and then of course fell off. Now Subie trades gone through and of course when you see the VIX spike and generally it's above 30. A lot of people say when there's fear in the street it's time to you know buy or whatever. Um obviously Warren Buffett has the famous quote there but realistically the thing is usually you see a bit deeper pullbacks. So, it's not actually that deep in terms of pullbacks and we'll look at the charts soon, but I will say that the data is the data and that's what of course the VIX is showing. Some other factors that are important is that we look at the Ford PE ratios. Now, this one here from Duality Research again is a really good chart because what it shows us is that the Ford PE ratio of the S&P actually has been getting cheaper for a while now and it's down to around 20.8. So, is the market as expensive as it was during 2025? The answer is quite simply no. But that's because the market is concerned about AI earnings and you can see that in technology stocks. And what has the market done? Well, it's jumped into of course energy over recent months, jumped into staples, defensive style markets, and we've also seen utilities and other markets like that seemingly pick up. So quite a big movement there in the markets across the board. When it comes to gold uh and copper and energy and agricultural commodities, obviously we do see movements here. One of the things I think that's really important to factor in is that gold has been moving for years on central bank movements. Now, it's not just that, of course, there are many things going through it. If you've been watching the channel for a long time, you'd know we've been bullish on gold for around 3 years plus. And of course, it's been a big move, but this is a great one here from Tabby Costa um and Daily Chart book. And basically what it shows is that usually you see gold move first in these types of periods. Then we see things like copper, silver, platinum, palladium move, which did last year. And then of course we usually see energy sector move. Again, usually a stage of late cycle markets, a market that is going to have, let's say, less index movement and more single stock and stock selection movement. So sector selection as well. Now a lot of people are starting to look at agriculture. I will say I think a lot of agriculture stocks have already started to move a while ago. But again, it's a good chart and it kind of shows you how money flow can move through. And obviously, we're seeing emerging markets as well. What about the dark pools? Well, I think it's worth noting here that uh this one VTI, Vanguard total stock market has actually been in a bit of a potential dis uh distribution for a while here in terms of the charts from volume leaders. We also saw of course a spike up uh in markets hitting the 20weekly moving average on the S&P which we'll look at in just a moment because all of these things are kind of pointing towards you know we're getting to that point where the bears if they're going to take over will be doing so relatively quickly. So let's have a look here at why this is all happening. First up the S&P we're using the real market here not the futures to start off with. And you can see here that we have the 2050 cross. Now, it's been a long time since 2050 cross has occurred, and the last time we saw it was during that period that continued to see selloff. Now, it's pretty rare to see 2050 crosses. Sometimes they can be false. You can see this one down here uh did happen and then of course it went straight back up or was very close to happening anyway. And I would say that is cross. So, that's obviously a cross to the downside. So, that's first strike. Not great. The big problem though is that we just hit back into the weekly 20. So the question then becomes is did we go low enough and is this a dead cap bounce? So generally speaking the the main kind of thing you'll usually look at is that a market if it drops below the 20 often does head towards the 50. Now the 50 sits at around 6500. Doesn't have to occur but that is often what does happen. And if it does bounce sometimes or usually the 20 moving average if respected on the way up will become dynamic resistance. And that's exactly where we found ourselves going back to 6,800. And if you guys remember just over the last couple of weeks and pretty much for the last two months, all we've seen is just puts all over 6,800. So there's a reason we'll go back up there probably expiring a bunch of zero DTE puts, but at the same time, this is a critical point for markets. So really, you'll be looking at futures over the next 24 hours to see what they're doing. You can see here the futures daily options high low. So you guys can see it there. And if we go down to something like a 2-hour chart, we're going to be looking at the reaction around this point because effectively this is the major support that then got broken to the downside. Markets hit into 6600 which is technically a completion of the 200 point range cuz it was 7K to 6,800. So obviously it did hit, you know, you would say first crossorrelation on the charts and then it bounced up. If it is going to go lower, generally in this period here is where you would expect it. And what I'll do is I'll pull a volume profile for you guys right now. So you can kind of see a little bit higher here around that 6850 area is starting to strike up pretty nicely in terms of uh major major resistance. So if bears going to come in, this is kind of the box structure that generally they would do. So so it is still critical that bulls if they're going to push it through get above 6900. Uh can it happen? Yes. Even though I know the news is bad, a lot of you guys are going to be saying well this is so much worse. You know, the market should be the market's complacent. Yeah, the market usually in the past would have been probably down 7 to 10% by now, but it won't because of course the market is complacent. And then we have to look at the bonds, which we'll look at in a moment. 6750 over the next 24 hours is the main wall. You can also see 6600 continues to strike up pretty nicely. And this is exactly what we've been talking about. So, you know, people are just absolutely going hard on puts and that's why we're getting these kind of major inflection points where markets will hold as best they can because there's just just so much money on the line in terms of if they go through those areas until we lose 6,500 though on markets. I would say that the trend still remains intact and that's very important on the higher time frames and that's usually where Wall Street's biggest money flow is. the higher time frames count for a lot more than the shorter time frames. And anyone of you guys that's been in trading and investing for a long time would know that. Now, let's have a look at the Q's. 600 held again. So, again, the Q's have been hit a little bit harder. 24,000 was hit as well on the NASDAQ in terms of the futures. All of these things helped to support the markets and they did end up bouncing off that area. And of course, the allimportant Nvidia didn't make it down to 170. So, we ended up holding that zone. Now, IBIT or the main options for Bitcoin has also done some interesting stuff. But I want to quickly talk about Bitcoin because there's a really cool uh chart. Actually, I was reading the comments from you guys in over on YouTube and I thought this actually a pretty good chart. Recently, we've seen a lot of software uh purchasing or what we think is purchasing accumulation. Now, one of the reasons that happens is the news is really negative on software right now. AI is going to, you know, take out all the software companies, etc., etc. So that's what the news has been saying. And on top of that, we've also had huge volume activity and we've had a multi-year low. So you can see here a really critical support was hit. We then saw a bit of purchasing up. And why that happens is because when the market is flowing out of everything else, they often go to already beaten down stocks and they tend to find some supporting base. And you may remember, we've talked about this from the Bitcoin side as well. So, if we actually load up Bitcoin on a chart, uh what you'll actually notice here is we do get a pretty interesting correlation. And I believe JC Parrots, I shout out to him. I believe he may have found this correlation as well. One of the members said yesterday in our live show, sub as well if you want to see live shows, we do them on usually the Monday opens. And one of the things about it was that it's actually pretty interesting because we're seeing a base structure form on IGV, which is software. And at the same time, we're seeing a demand zone form on Bitcoin. So, could software actually continue up here to maybe like a weekly 20 moving average or something like that. And if you look at the correlation of these, we're going to be doing a bit more of this in the next video. You can actually see they're pretty well correlated for quite some time. So, great great shout out there. Um, and I think it's pretty interesting. Bitcoin time now. Uh, yep, we did see a bit of a bounce. Actually pretty resilient. Ethereum obviously not through the 2,150 zone. So obviously not through that resistance just yet but we'll be watching very closely and they are holding and and one of the reasons they're holding I think is because everything else obviously is you know moving and readjusting its price at this point. The main concern is stagflation where that is inflation up and uh growth down. Uh but you know I would always say stagflation is pretty rare. We don't see it very often. So we have to of course say in this market what are we what are we actually seeing with from the flows and at the moment the flows seemingly have gone into tech over the last 24 hours and last couple of sessions actually let's have a look here US oil massive rally massive crash huge amounts of money movement I mean that's absolutely crazy in terms of the price action and that's what happens when you get into a wild market and it's not just oil that's going wild It's also a few international stock markets that are absolutely crazy as well. So, uh this is worrying because of course this shows often a later cycle market, a market that's actually very fragile and we have to start paying a lot of attention to the likes of JP Morgan stock to see what's going on with financials that barely held over the last 24 hours. And of course, we need to look at the XLF sector as well, which is barely holding up as well. It's still declining for quite some time signaling that this market's not the best. But at the same time, you know, it's it is very important we keep watching this. So, a lot of people are wondering why NG stocks not going up. It's all to do with the futures contracts. Remember, look at CL. Most people don't do this in retail. Look at like a December contract, you're going to see a 69 barrel. So, obviously, it's the short date. That is the shortterm problems in oil, not necessarily the long term. And if that becomes the long-term and the short term, the markets will will get crushed. So, uh yeah, it's all about well, at least that's my opinion. We'll see whether that does end up happening. But if that does occur, then we'll have some problems on the horizon. Semiconductors rallied back up. Uh when we're looking at the comparison, trend line broken down, retested back up again. All these retests. That's why it's so important to watch the uh US 500 over the next 24 hours and this because what's happened is we've seen this relief rally, but is it real? uh you know this is usually where I would expect you know some type of bear to to try to get into the sell side if they were going to against no solicitation do anything guys please be careful but this is a technical zone that often does get retested from the way up so it' be very interesting next 24 hours Chinese markets hit cross correlation and managed to bounce again small time frames suggest that we're right on that critical kind of potential turn point and we're kind of seeing this across the board for the Australians out there similar kind of hit 844 40 bounced off that zone a little bit here for the XJO obviously a slight spike up and gold as well holding on to that daily 20. So effectively markets around the world really just holding on to key zones. We also saw copper which could be a horrible head and shoulders pattern hold on to the neckline. So you can see here left shoulder head right shoulder held on bounced back up. So everything kind of just held on. Even the German market as well it was really just everything kind of just barely holding. You can see here the German market coming down to the critical level of support. So this is what we call crossorrelation and um yeah everything was I can see why it bounced there. The question is really the US 500. I think that's the most important chart. And if we look at the NASDAQ, you're going to see a similar thing. Uh there it is 20 24,000. See that level? Absolutely. And of course to really get out of all these problems, you're generally wanting to see a higher high. Uh so that is going to be when the flow starts to turn more bullish and then put squeeze on probably what is a lot of shorts. We don't know that's going to happen yet but we'll be watching US yields critical major level again probably they're going to hit at the same time if we do see this continue to escalate then we may see dollar uh that is the US dollar start to strengthen as well and at the same time we'll probably see yields break up and that's when that stagflation story will really hit crescendo. watch that uh space, those two charts worthwhile checking out as well. And then of course there's Tesla. A lot of you guys said, "Tom, why aren't you following Tesla?" Well, it's just been in a downward trend. So, effectively this daily 20 uh we need to see that broken to the upside. We have not seen that yet. So, we'll keep tracking it, but yeah, nothing changing there just yet, guys. Nvidia 170 critical level. Obviously, we'll be paying a lot of attention to this um and keep looking around. And then we've got the uh Cosby. So I wanted to mention this because it does look like significant volatility's entered into the Niki uh which is the Japanese market and the Cosby the South uh South Korean market. Now these markets are ridiculously high. Uh when you look at them it doesn't really make sense until you think about AI and what's going on there. But look at this. This is 176% in like 12 months. That's not normal for an index. Imagine if that happened to the S&P. Yeah. It doesn't smell good. So I would say at the moment, you know, the one thing about the markets, we always do a bit of a summary here. Firstly, CPI. This is not actually going to have the data that most people will be looking for to see how bad inflation or CPI is going to explode out. Um, we'll be checking that for the next month. But the main thing here in markets, guys, is really to say, you know, have we seen volatility spike up? Yes. Have we seen a crash on volatility? Yes. That is symbolic usually of close to bottoming. Um, which is weird to say because we're not really down that much. But this is a midterm year. We expect volatility to continue and it to be an up down all around. I think the problem right now is that everything is pointing to late cycle. Everything is pointing towards, you know, more uncertainty and more margin and we're seeing moves uh amplified. So what we just saw in oil is, you know, historic stuff. I mean 100% increase in in less than a week. So or a week and a half, two weeks. So it's pretty wild stuff then to get crushed like that. The the movements are significant. So what you're going to want to be doing in terms of the charts is of course replicating as much as you can creating that structural base and also understanding you know what charts matter and one of the things that we're looking at is what charts matter. Haven't even seen bonds freak out yet. So still looking for the bonds market to really tell us what to do. Guys for now levels are holding 20 moving average weekly key level super important S&P next 24 hours. Looking forward to doing the video for you guys as well. And if you want to find out anything more about what we do, you can check it out in the links in the description down below. Thank you so much, guys, and we'll see you in the next one. Stay safe out there right.