Transcription
[Music] Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you are in good spirits. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Sunday, November 2, 2025. And like every Sunday, we will do a long-term analysis. We will look at the weekly which is not pretty, which is red. After, you will tell me "Well yes, since yesterday, for 24 hours, it's correcting a little, especially on the altcoins, and nothing serious." So we will see if the weekly will tell us today "Oh my god, this doesn't look good, direction bear market." Now, some in their minds are already in a bear market, and I can totally understand that because there are altcoins that have lost 70-80% and are struggling to recover. So yes, clearly, some are in a bear market in their portfolios. When I say bear market or bull run, I am of course only talking about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the leader. If Bitcoin goes into a bear market, everyone will go into a bear market. If Bitcoin continues its cycle, it goes into a bull run, everyone, well almost everyone, will follow, you see. But there isn't room for everyone, unfortunately. That's why when I say bear market, and everyone says these words, be careful, I'm talking about Bitcoin. Some are truly in a bear market in their portfolios. So you see, unfortunately, not everyone has the same portfolio, and not everyone is experiencing the same cycle, and this cycle is totally different compared to the previous cycle. So tonight at 9 PM, I will be live from 9 PM to 10 PM where I will read all your comments, I will answer all your questions. I don't do analysis during this 1-hour live session from 9 PM to 10 PM. The analyses I do where I analyze all your cryptos one by one are on Wednesday evenings on the VIP Telegram channel. Link in the description, it's totally free to access. You just need a Binance account associated with your dear little one. Basically, I created this VIP channel to thank people who use Binance via my link, simply. So for now, the weekly is not very pretty. It's not too bad, though. -15% this week on Bitcoin, compared to -3, -4, -5 for others. The altcoins have been correcting a little since yesterday. The market is still in fear. It's normal for the market to be in fear because on one hand, we had good news about interest rate cuts. Yeah, a sell the news. Okay, like last month. End of QT. Yeah, but that just means they're stopping tightening the balance sheet a bit, you see. They're just getting the money back, they're burning it. But they're not going to inject more. So it's good news, but it doesn't have enough flavor, you see. It's like being given a delicious chocolate cake with whipped cream, but the chocolate has no taste. It doesn't taste like chocolate, it tastes like nothing. You're like, "Wait, is this a joke?" You're not happy. And unfortunately, there's bad news, or Jerome Powell saying it will be difficult for an interest rate cut in December because inflation is rising. We are at 3% for core inflation, and general inflation, that's not good news. Many Fed governors disagree with having already had the rate cut on Wednesday. They disagree even more with the rate cut that is coming. Well, you can feel it. Okay, there was the agreement signed with Trump, well not yet signed but to be signed between Trump and China, but it lacks a bit of crunch, you see. It lacks something, this little agreement. It's like, "Okay, I'll give you a little, you give me a little, but it's still a bit tense." If I can express myself that way. That's why the markets aren't breathing the big bullishness yet. To breathe, to have good bullishness, for it to push well, we need good big news, something solid, something juicy, a good reassuring thing that you put on the barbecue that smells good. You know, a big ribeye steak, that's what we need. Well, and for now, we don't really have it, that's why the markets aren't very, very pretty. Now, the altcoins on the weekly. For now, there's sweat on the brow, you see, because altcoins have been smashing the 50-day moving average for 4 weeks. Now, the 50, as usual, for years, these are moving averages that I like. Everyone chooses the moving averages they want. Some have the 38, some have the 72, we don't care. For me, 50 and 200, boom, they work very well. And the 50 weekly, it's been 4 weeks that altcoins have been smashing it. We can clearly feel that if altcoins start to lose it, it's going to be tough. They lost it the first time for the big weekly candle. Now we are on the long-term structure. The biggest structure we can have. Okay? This one. It's the weekly one. Well, there was wave A for all altcoins, which started between approximately December and April, where altcoins got crushed. Some were crushed in a bear market in 4-5 months, others held on slightly longer. You see, all of that is wave B. Unfortunately, after that, you have to endure a wave C. The question I've been asking myself since the first week of October is, does this nuclear wick announce wave C? Is this wave C, and is it going to fall, fall, fall to make a real wave? Because you can't have a wave A here that lasts, well, December, January, February, March, April, you know, 5 months. And then wave B that lasts also, from April, let's say, if it stopped in October, so April, May, June, July, August, September, October, 7 months, and you can't have a wave C that lasts one week and then we go back up. That's never been seen, you see. Well, after all, structures can sometimes be a bit complicated, but well, this would be a bit strange. So as I often say, what does the structure tell us? Wave A, very good, we all agree. Wave B, very good, we all agree. Now, is this the beginning of wave C, and does that mean it's going to fall, fall, fall? That's scenario number 1, where wave C is triggered, if you will, on Friday, October 10th, that week, and then it will be, it's still wave C that will just happen, and it will last a few months. Wave C can last a few months too, you see. In the first scenario, it's wave C, and it's a downtrend. But to tell you, yes, there are strong probabilities that it's wave C. I would like it to break this 50-day moving average because as long as this 50-day moving average holds, it can go up again. And so for the scenario that is a bit like scenario number 2, which is the more bullish scenario, it would be that this is actually internal to wave B, with a zigzag, zigzag, after the zig, you see, the zag is a bit here, it's pushed a bit, you see. Well, that remains very possible. A wave B is not a perfectly clean channel like the one who arrives in the crypto world, with his hair perfectly slicked to the side with gel, with his butterfly wings, all clean and neat, and then he says, "Ah, come on, where's the money? Ah, I'm coming with 1000. As soon as I reach a million, I'll sell. No, as soon as I reach 2 million, I'll sell a million, so I remain a millionaire. The million that's there, I'll reinvest to make a few more millions." That's the perfectly clean guy. And then, 3 months later, his tie is askew, he's got sweat on his forehead, you see, his clothes are torn, his portfolio is bleeding everywhere, he's understood that reality isn't like that. Well, so here it's the same, a big wave B is not a perfectly clean channel, it can do a bit of anything, you see. Well, so for now, scenario 1, yes, it's wave C, and it's just going to fall, boom, boom, boom. And then you can say bear market if you want, because it won't look good at all. That means altcoins can lose an average of -30%, but to have that, you need to break the 50 weekly at 725 billion. As long as the 50 weekly moving average and the average price of the top 125 altcoins that we have in front of us over the last 5 years, as long as it's not broken with a red candle that does this, then for me, we are not yet in C. Okay? And so we could still be in B, which is going up and even reaching the all-time high. So, in short, the analysis tells us, hop, always the same, as long as we don't break the 50-day moving average, we are potentially still in B. If we break the 50, it's over. So for now, today, we are on a tightrope, we are on the border, the gates of hell are open in front of us, and we say, are we going to go there or not? What do we do? Can we go back? You see, that's the idea. For now, it's not really. After all, the 50 RSI has been broken on the weekly, not very good news. The bears still have momentum. Well, also not very good news, but as long as the 50 weekly is not broken, I wouldn't say it's off to wave C, it needs to be broken. That's all. On the daily level, still here, the altcoins are playing with the 200-day moving average. Well, it's simple, the red candle here that breaks the 200-day moving average, well, it breaks the 50-day moving average, and then it will start to sting, you see, knowing that the bulls are getting a bit tired. Well, it's certain that for now, it doesn't smell like big bullishness. And on the altcoin level here, we are waiting for the little A here, we are waiting for a little B. Is this C starting to make a regular move and then it will go up again, or is it the famous big A, big B finished, boom, we go to C for the descent? So there are two solutions. It's like Bitcoin, after Bitcoin is the cleanest, I'll show you where it is. It's simply falling a bit, but to go up and then there's the big C, or it's first the big C downtrend to validate the big structure. Well, knowing that we have a small bearish channel that zigzags, zigzags, zigzags. At some point, it has strong probabilities of pushing upwards, which is scenario 1, which is that, well, simply, we will have an upward leg before the big nuclear C, or then the big nuclear C that goes directly. Now, the structure will be prettier on Bitcoin. You'll see. For now, Bitcoin, my love, has been rejected by the Ichimoku cloud for 3 weeks on the weekly. What does this gibberish mean? At $115,000, it's the average price of Bitcoin over the last 9 weeks. These are resistances, supports that work well. So, here, for 3 weeks, the Tenkan has said "No, you're not passing." No, you're not passing. It's not very nice. Well, we have the Kijun, which is its twin sister but bigger, stronger. We also call it Olga. It's around $109,860. It's holding well. The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin is around $103,000, you see. So breaking $103,000 wouldn't be good. Clearly, I won't talk about a bear market. Why? Because there's also a structure. Okay, Bitcoin's structure is the same. Wave A is from December to approximately April. All of this is wave B. Zigzag, zigzag, zigzag, zigzag. It didn't have the nuclear wick, you see. And so, as long as this is the big B, what tells us that wave B is finished? When you see this wave here, do you say "Oh, that's it, wave B is finished"? Not at all. Wave B can totally continue to explode. It can go to 140, 150 now. Clearly, there's nothing telling us that wave B is finished. Nothing at all. You see, if it had broken the W 50 here around $103,000, I would tell you, "Ah, this doesn't look good, this smells like wave C." But no, as long as Bitcoin doesn't break $103,000 here, which is the equivalent, as long as altcoins don't break their 50-day moving average or $724 billion, we won't say that wave B is starting because Bitcoin has the same structure, wave A here, wave B which zigzags, and wave C is missing. Now, some will call this a bear market, whatever you want. The reload zone is between approximately $85,000 and $94,000. It's certain that if Bitcoin goes there, altcoins will all lose -40%, -30%, -40%, you see, maybe even -50%, -60% for some. Maybe some will even lose -80%, you see. If Bitcoin loses 30%, they lose twice as much or three times as much. So some altcoins will be in a bear market for Bitcoin, well, Bitcoin between 80, 85, in any case between 80, 85 and 90, it's not a huge, crazy bear market, it's rather the structure. It's A, it's B, it's C. And we also don't forget that this structure is a continuation structure. So wait, I'll put it clearly. I'll remove this so we can see better. So here, we are on A. All of this is B. Even if it separates, but to say "Oh my god, this stinks, put on diapers, it separates, we need to break this 50-day moving average at $103,000. If Bitcoin makes a very ugly red candle that breaks $103,000 here, okay, then I'll have the speech. Well, it's wave C starting. Like for altcoins, if they break the 50-day moving average, they'll do it at the same time. If Bitcoin does it, altcoins will too, it will be wave C starting. And then yes, people will put on diapers and some will leave, we'll say "Oh my god, crypto is too bad." Imagine. Well, as usual, the same tune. So for now, as long as the $103,000, the 50-day moving average is not broken, Bitcoin is still in its wave B. It has the right to make an upward wave if it wants to reach 140, 150. You see, nothing tells us that it's started. So now, if we look at the momentum indicators, we haven't broken the 50 RSI yet. Okay, the bears are there, they are not very nice. Well, that's not great that the bears are there, but the bears can get tired. That is to say, Bitcoin can even make a red candle at $103,000, the 50-day moving average, lateralize a bit, and then go up again, you see, simply. So even today, what I see in front of me doesn't say we are in a bear market, it even says that if we are still in wave B, it will explode above $126,000, and if the 50-day moving average is lost, it will be a wave C for this run. That is to say, yes, Bitcoin can go down to $80,000 if it wants, but the rest will be an upward explosion because it's the same tune as usual. When you have an impulse, a correction, well, boom, continuation. It will be a continuation run. So personally, I'm not afraid, even if Bitcoin goes to $80,000, I won't be afraid. Ah yes, where I would be afraid, where I would say welcome to the bear market, that will be when? That will be when the $74,561 is broken. Why? Because as long as Bitcoin doesn't break this low, it can make a small A, a small B, a small C, a continuation run upwards. And if it validates this run, it's off to 150, between 150 and 200. Okay? Now, if Bitcoin falls, falls, falls and breaks this low, welcome to the bear market. Why? Because Bitcoin is starting a new structure, simply. And yes, that's what it will tell us, like all charts. That is to say, you go up, you go up, you go up, you go up, you go up. When you start to break the low, you start a new structure with a wave A, a wave B, a wave C, and then you will have a bear market that could reach the 200-day moving average between $55,000 and $60,000. So, I will clearly use the word bear market because it will be a strong and large corrective structure. Then yes, it will be a bear market because Bitcoin will go, I think, towards $50,000 if it has to break this low at $74,561. On the daily level, a candle of nothing today. The 200-day moving average is holding well. I remind you, the structure is the same as yesterday, the day before yesterday, because not much happened this weekend. We potentially have a small A, small B, small C. Two solutions: either we validate this run, boom, we go to get all that was eaten in the north, that is to say around $113,000-$114,000, there's about 1.2 billion to eat. And in that case, well, it will be delicious, it will go, it can go up to the short reload zone. Theoretically, it should even break $116,000 here. And then, we finish the big structure, well, 7 A, 7 B, and boom, 7 C to then do the run to go. Or then it's directly falling, boom, because it validated small A, small B, small C. So, either it's the nuclear descent now, or first a last rise before descending. Same scenario as yesterday and the day before yesterday. So I'll move on to Ethereum now. So Ethereum on the weekly, it's like Bitcoin. For now, there's nothing telling us "Oh my god! Everything is going to die on Ethereum." Well, why do I say that? It has its wave A like everyone else, from December to April, wave A, and all of this is its wave B. It even has a small channel that has strong probabilities of breaking upwards. So for now, Ethereum, nothing tells us that this wave B currently underway is finished. No, to start saying "where does it stink," well, in fact, it would need to break the 50-day moving average around $3147. And then we would say "Oh my god." Well, I prefer to look at Bitcoin's 50-day moving average. That will be cleaner. So, for now, Ethereum, and nothing tells us that it's over, it's falling again. Not at all, really not at all. It even has the right to go to its 50-day moving average around $3130. Make A, then B which does this. Then, in fact, wave B can be in three parts like many wave Bs. Small A, small B, boom, small C. If it does that, then wave B will have strong probabilities of being finished, with this A, this B, it will be missing a small C to make a run like Bitcoin, and then it's off to the moon. You see, so here, it has the right, yes, it totally has the right to go to its 50-day moving average if it wants, around $3100, but as long as it doesn't break it, it will be a channel that will be a small B for a small A here, small B, boom, small C which can reach $5000, $6000 much higher, and then it will finish by validating all of this, this big A, all of this will be the big B, and then a big C. You see, I'll do it again to make the structure clear. So for now, does Ethereum look like a bear market? But but never in my life, never in my life, you see. There's nothing. Now, maybe in 2 months, I'll have a different speech, but for sure, if in 2 months, it's here, it's here, it's on its 1200 average, then it stinks of wave C, which will clearly not be good. But for now, today, well no, there's nothing telling us Ethereum is in a bear market. So, can Ethereum correct? Yes, it can go to its Kijun at $3349. Its 50-day moving average at $302. Now, if it starts to break the 50-day moving average, then it will smell like wave C for an A, for a B, for a C, for a run, boom, and then it will explode. The run has the right to go to the 200-day moving average or 244 if wave C starts. But for wave C to start, it's like Bitcoin, but you'll have to say an explosion of $100,000, $102,000, $103,000, and then okay, but for now, no. Now yes, the angry bears, we are above $50 here. For now, for next week, the week after, can it be red? Yes, I don't care. I'm talking about the long term, you see, for the long term, for the coming months, for now, there's nothing telling us that wave C has started. Coin, altcoin, you have to break the 50. On the daily level, well, it's quietly lateralizing all weekend. Nothing special. Well, okay, the bulls have lost a bit of momentum this weekend, but it's not too serious. The chart tells us, I'm telling you the same thing as yesterday, the day before yesterday. For it to make a nice regular move, it would first need to break $3677, then make its small A, its small B, its small C, then boom, a small rise to get the liquidity in the north, and then it will finish by making the small A, the B, and boom, the nuclear C. So it's the same analysis as yesterday, the day before yesterday, like for Bitcoin, for everyone, it's first to finish this. It has the right to make a small drop and then we push for a nice upward wave, and then we fall, or it's directly boom, wave C, so we fall directly for this A, for this B, for this C. So, same scenario as yesterday, the day before yesterday. We will have the answer tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, for Solana now. So here, Solana is on its 50-day moving average, it's been 4 weeks that it's been fiddling with it, touching it. Well, it's holding well. Solana is like altcoins, it's either you wipe your brow. You see, where Ethereum, well, you say you're far from the 50 average, it has the right to have a few more weeks of decline. As long as it stays in a small channel like this, it's good, it will break. But here, Solana, you say "Oh, it's on the, you know, the one on the tightrope with his stick, or he's there, he has no, he has no rope to hold him. He has nothing, you see. And you look down, you say "Oh my god, he can fall at any moment." That's Solana. That's Solana. Why? Because it's exactly on its 50-day moving average. So Solana, the chart is very beautiful. The beautiful wave A from December to April, a magnificent B that zigzags, that zigzags. Is B finished here? Has C started? Well, for now, it's not telling us that it has started. You see, to increase the probabilities of wave C starting, which will surely go, well, if wave C starts, since it hasn't broken the high of A, it can go below $100, maybe below the 200-day moving average. Okay. So wave C, for now, it's not telling us. Now, if it breaks the 50-day moving average, which is now at $183, that is to say, if next week, hello, bam, it makes a breaking candle like this, then it will strongly increase the probabilities that it will go into wave C, to make A, to make B, and boom, C, and then it will sting, because theoretically, it has to break the low here, break $94, it's going now. Attention, I haven't said that wave C has started, you have to break the 50-day moving average for wave C to start. And if Solana holds the 50-day moving average, it can totally push and continue its wave B, zigzag, zigzag, and make a zig and go break above $300. It can do that, clearly. So everything will be decided here on the close, but especially next week. Next week red. Boom, well, welcome to wave C. Next week green, well, it has to push. It needs a good green week. And well, it's off again. We continue wave A. So for now, yes, the bears have regained momentum, so it doesn't smell like roses. Breaking the 50 RSI doesn't smell like roses either, but I'm waiting for the real break of the 50-day moving average to say "it stinks, welcome to wave C." You have to break the 200-day moving average, the 200-day, $179, to also say "it stinks." So for now, it's okay. The structure is exactly the same as Bitcoin. Two solutions: it finishes this little regular move, so it will break $174, then it goes for an upward wave, and then it's the C of the week, or then it's directly the downtrend. So, like yesterday, same analysis as yesterday, the day before yesterday. There's no, there's no change. Now, for XRP to finish. So XRP weekly, it's holding its Kijun here at $2.45. The 50-day moving average, well, it's holding it, but it's tough. It's sitting on it, you see, at $2.50. Well, so it's the same, it's the same as the others. Except that with its nuclear candle, it's a bit scary. So this candle said "yes, it's okay, we're all going down." And so now, it's just going to fall, fall, fall, fall to go below. It can go to the 200-day moving average around $1.01. Or no, the 50-day moving average holds and it pushes. So XRP is like Solana, it's on its 50-day moving average. Next week, the breaking candle that does this. It's off to hell because there will be a strong probability of testing the bottom of the wick. Remember, for example, here in February, there was a nice wick that was retested almost once. Another new wick, and then boom, boom, boom, boom. You'll retest the bottom of the wicks, you see, with these candles. Here, it's the same, big wicks are often retested. So, XRP that goes boom and boom like this to reach the low, but don't be surprised that the wicks are very often retested. You'll have to say, well, we're on the big bearish wave, same. Now yes, the bears are there, rejected by the 50, it doesn't smell like bullishness. Now, I want an ugly red candle next week, and then we can say welcome to the vaccinated. Hold on tight because it will last several weeks. We'll be shaken from all sides. Especially the descent, the roller coaster, we'll just go down, down, down. Well, on the daily level, it hasn't changed. For now, it's moving around. It's rather on a Bitcoin-style run, but it has the right to go to a small lower low. So scenario 1, it corrects a bit and boom, an upward wave before the nuclear wave C, and scenario 2, it's directly the nuclear one. Well, it's the weekend, not much is happening, there's liquidity on both sides. It will mainly be next week with all the institutions returning, the volumes returning that will drive us in a clear direction. If the stock market corrects, corrects, corrects, well, okay, it's off to the big wave C. This November, December could be bad if the stock market regains some strength and cryptos follow. Eh, but we will continue wave B, and we continue upwards, and wave C for later. VoilĂ . VoilĂ . I hope I was clear. It's a bit complicated, a bit boring with the structures and all. Well, thank you for listening. I send kisses. See you later for the live. [Music]