Transcription
Iran wants complete control over ship movements in its hands. Yesterday, US markets saw mixed trading. The Dow jumped 550 points, while the NSDC fell 55 points due to selling in chip stocks, closing weak for the fifth consecutive day. The Gift NFT jumped 150 points to near 24,250. Dow futures were up 60 points ahead of the Fed's decision on interest rates. Korea was up 1.5%, while Taiwan's market fell 4.5%. June's IIP growth was the highest in 23 months at 7.3%, supported by strong growth in manufacturing, electricity, capital goods, and consumer durables. Gold fell by ₹1500 to cross ₹141,600, while silver dropped by ₹5300 to close near ₹26,000. Metals saw a widespread decline, with copper and aluminum among others slipping by half to 2%. After four days of selling, FIIs bought ₹755 crore in cash, totaling net purchases of ₹928 crore. Domestic funds also injected ₹164 crore into the market for the fourth consecutive day. L&T and Phoenix Mills presented mixed results in the June quarter. Today, results for Adani Force, Asian Paints, Adani Enterprises, and i Motors will be released. In F&O, the market will focus on six results including Colgate, Dabur, KPIT Tech, Force Motors, and Wari Energy. The IPO of Manipal Health Enterprises opens today, with a price band of ₹560 to ₹590. From 8:00 AM, find out whether to invest in the issue from Anshvi. The government has imposed a stock limit to control sugar prices. From August 1 to November 30, no one can stock more than 4000 quintals or stock for more than 30 days. Prime Minister Modi reviewed the finance, industry, and technology sectors in a meeting with secretaries. Important issues including the economy, industry, and technology were discussed in the meeting.
Hello and welcome to Power Breakfast with me, Swati Raina. We will tell you what signals the mid-session of the week is bringing for the market. We will also bring you signals from the commodity market, a complete update on the global market, and strategies for earning. But first, let's take a complete analysis of what has happened between America and Iran. We have International Market Expert Ajay Bagga with us. Good morning, Ajay Bagga Sir. Amidst the claims of talks by Trump, a surprise attack occurred, which Iran carried out on the Middle East. Are there signs of increasing tension? Yes, see, the problem is that Iran's military command is not concentrated. It is distributed among 32 district commanders. Since the US took out Saddam Hussein, Iran has planned that even if the central command is lost, the regional commanders will continue. So, these drone attacks and this attack could have been carried out by one of these 32 district commanders, or Iran is doing it intentionally. But it does increase the risk a bit. But overall, America has not bombed for four days. The Israeli Prime Minister is indeed in America. He had talks with Trump, and you can see that Israel has not attacked Iran in the last 15 days, and Iran is not attacking the UAE either. So, these side deals are happening in the Middle East. I am still a bit optimistic about peace talks continuing despite this attack. Oman and Saudi Arabia are mediating with Iran now. Last time it was Qatar and Pakistan, now Saudi and Oman are directly talking to Iran. So, let's see what happens.
And besides this, the important triggers for today are the Fed meeting, where a rate cut is not expected, but if they give some guidance, the market will watch it. The market is still thinking that there might be one or two rate cuts by the end of the year. Our personal opinion is that there will be no rate cut because Trump does not want it, and November is a very important month for Trump, with mid-term elections. Then there are meetings of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. We expect a pause there as well. And as you were saying earlier, the artificial intelligence sell-off, especially in chip semiconductor companies, is continuing. However, we saw a recovery in Nvidia, which was quite low, closing in the green yesterday. The biggest reason for this is that capacity is now coming in China, and what was thought to be technology that China did not have, China is now demonstrating. Both in generative AI and on the other hand, China has started mass-producing machines that ASML used to make, very high-tech machines for making semiconductors. So, the pricing of semiconductors could fall significantly. If China brings overcapacity in semiconductors, as it has done in steel and other things, there could be a huge decline in the coming years. Thinking about this, we saw a decline in the market in semiconductors and the like. So, with Iran's action, today is a bit of a risk-on day. There are very important meetings of central banks today and tomorrow. There are very big results from hyperscalers in the US, like Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, etc. And fourth, the trend in semiconductors. These are the market's key drivers. And today, the August series is starting in India. It looks like a gap-up opening. Let's see what happens after Iran's action. Thank you very much, sir, for the analysis of the entire event. Let's move on to a complete update from the commodity market to the global market. Let's talk to Neha. Good morning, Neha. Tell us about the US markets and what's the update from the commodity market? Absolutely. First of all, let's focus on crude oil. Good morning to you, Swati. See, crude oil jumped 4.5% this morning. Bagga ji, you were mentioning the surprise attack that came out and again created concern in the market that is the ceasefire here about to be broken again, and the war is not going to spread further rapidly? Because of this, we saw that Brent crude for October delivery is trading around $85 today. Nevertheless, before this, you saw that crude oil closed with a decline for the third day yesterday, and we saw a correction of about 14 to 15% in crude oil prices in about three days. If we focus on other commodities, gold and silver saw a halt to their two-day rally. Gold and silver have both reached one-week lows. Silver also saw a significant correction, falling almost 2 to 2.5% and reaching around $57. Everyone's eyes are on the dollar index, and the market is particularly poised for the Fed's two-day meeting, the decision of which will come late tonight. It will be applicable to us from tomorrow. We will actually analyze it tomorrow because the decision will come out late tonight as per Indian time.
In the meantime, we have seen a widespread decline in metals. Copper and aluminum have broken their two-day rally. Copper closed below 13,700. We saw pressure in aluminum, zinc, and nickel, and both aluminum and nickel have reached their lowest levels in over a week. Now it's time for the US markets. Here, we saw a mixed trade for the third consecutive day, where the Dow and S&P managed to close in the green. However, the NSDC is showing a decline for the fifth consecutive day and closed in the red. Talking about the Dow, it reached a three-week high, showing a tremendous strength of 537 points. It closed very close to 52,750. Talking about the NSDC, this index fell to a three-month low from its day's low. Although there was a recovery of 300 points, it closed 55 points down, and as I said, it has been falling for five days, and the NSDC has currently fallen by more than 1000 points. The basic factors are the same: chip stocks are continuously declining, and somewhere the market is now afraid that the AI spending and investment in AI by companies might slow down. Amazon, Meta, Microsoft's numbers will be important. The market will keep an eye on this. You might remember that yesterday we saw the listing of CXMT in China, which is Asia's largest IPO so far. This also caused some fear in the market. The dollar index has broken its three-day rally and is sluggish near 101, and the 10-year bond yield has fallen for the third consecutive day but is still around 4.61%. Thank you very much, Neha, for the complete update. Let's move on to strategies for earning in the Indian markets and welcome Anil Singhvi, Managing Editor of Zee Business. Anil Sir, good morning, and first of all, today is a very auspicious day. We wish you a very happy Guru Purnima. And secondly, globally, there has been a surprise attack once again, and this time Iran has attacked the Middle East. But despite this, the signals from Gift Nifty are good. How do you consider the start of the series? Good morning, Swati. First of all, thank you to you, and best wishes to everyone and all our viewers on Guru Purnima. I hope that every day we get to learn something new in life and continue to move forward on the festival of knowledge. That is my wish. As far as global markets are concerned, there are some mixed signals. There has been a good rally in America. It has been better than expected. But at the same time, if you look, this surprise attack has come from Iran. Iran is usually considered to respond, not to attack. But it has done a little bit. So, naturally, its impact has been slightly visible on crude. Otherwise, late last night, crude had reached around $81 at one point. It seemed like good work would be done, and Gift Nifty was also almost 300 points strong. Okay? Nevertheless, we will work with the signals we have. The first thing is that crude is almost where we left it. It's not like it has increased significantly, so there's no need to stress. But the good positive that could have happened today is slightly missing. As for yesterday's data, both FII and DII have come with purchase numbers. But the point is that in yesterday's session, there are many adjustments for expiry and rollovers. So, we will see that too.
Regarding today's session, generally, there is strength in the market on the first day of the series. We discussed this in yesterday's closing show and said that if you carry forward BTST positions, the market will trade with strength. And there doesn't seem to be any major problem or big difficulty. Yes, it is true that at higher levels, it will be seen to stop at the upper end of its trading range. So, you can expect trading within a limited range after a gap-up opening. Yes, yes, Sir. What could be the important levels for Nifty and Nifty Bank today? There won't be any significant change. See, Nifty closed with sluggishness yesterday, down 10 points. The same range of 23800-23900 from yesterday is the support today as well. On the upside, 24050-24175 was the range yesterday, and it is the same today. Yesterday, it turned around from 2441. As far as Bank Nifty is concerned, the range of 56400-5600 will act as support for you. On the upside, the range of 57125-57400 is where Bank Nifty might move initially. The interesting thing today is to see if crude comes down a bit more, then the underperformance of rate-sensitive stocks in Bank Nifty, which was seen yesterday, might improve slightly. Yesterday, after the market closed, Swati, there were only two results, L&T and FinX. So, there is a bit less action in terms of numbers today. But today is a big day in terms of results. There are four Nifty results and six to seven results in futures trading. So, there will be a lot of action today. Thank you very much, Sir, for talking. We will meet again in a while. Let's move on to the June quarter results, important triggers, and news for today. Janvi is with us for complete details. Good morning, Janvi. Please tell us what will be special? Good morning. If we look at today, the list of results is a bit long again. From Nifty, four results are to be announced. Adani Ports, Adani Enterprises, Asian Paints, and Ishar Motors results will be announced from Nifty. In futures trading, there are results of six companies, including Colgate, KPIT Technologies, FS Motors, Prestige State, DAB, and Wari Energy. The ex-date for SMS Energy's final dividend of ₹18 is today. In the primary market update, a big IPO is opening today. Manipal Health Enterprises IPO will remain open until July 31st, and the IPO price band is ₹560 to ₹590. The total lot size is 25 shares. The total issue size is ₹9275 crore, of which the fresh issue component is ₹8000 crore. The company has raised ₹4167 crore from anchor investors, and a large list of anchor investors has emerged, including major mutual funds and large FIIs. Yesterday, after the market closed, L&T's results were announced. The results are a bit mixed. The company's revenue has increased by 7%, slightly higher than estimates. The operating profit came in at around ₹6116 crore, a decrease of 3%. The estimate was ₹6809 crore. Margins are slightly weaker than estimates. The estimate was for 10% margins, and 9% margins were reported. Profit has increased by 16%, but there is a component of other income, due to which we are seeing an exponential rise in profit. The order book is around ₹7.78 lakh crore, a growth of 27%. Order inflow is strong. The management has also reiterated its guidance. So, the commentary is coming on the positive side. Phoenix also has mixed numbers. There is a significant operational beat here. Revenue has increased by 13%, operating profit by 14%. Margins are 59.7%, compared to an estimate of 58%. So, there is a beat of about 170 basis points here. Profit has also seen a jump of 23%. VST Industries has results in cash. We are seeing weak results due to the increase in excise duty for all cigarette companies. Here too, margins have decreased from 26% to around 20%. Profit has also seen a decrease of 24%. True Volt Bio Energy has very strong results on all parameters. Revenue has doubled. Operating profit has increased 3.2 times. And margins have improved from 14% to around 21%. Sugar stocks will be in focus because the government has imposed a stock limit on sugar from August 1 to November 30, 2026. Dealers will not be able to store sugar for more than 30 days. So, there is an update from the government. Also, according to sources, the government has revoked the security clearance of Indigo's new CEO, Willi Walsh. So, he may take over as CEO at Indigo on or before August 3rd. RBNL has received orders worth approximately ₹360 crore from Eastern Central Railway. Railtel has also received a work order of approximately ₹44 crore from Osa Police. Thank you, Janvi, for providing details on all the major news and results. Let's move on and understand the strategies for investing in which cities today, and we have Siddharth Raimangala from SRE Investments Financial Services. Good morning, Siddharth. Tell us, which two trades look good to you in today's setup? Good morning, Swati ji. Good morning. Absolutely. See, Swati ji, the market momentum should be good today. So, there are two stocks where I am sorry, yesterday also there was good momentum. The first stock is Ashok Leyland. Here, see, the stock has shown a strong turnaround from the bottom for the last three consecutive sessions. Swati ji, I think this momentum should continue from here. The stock closed around the level of 157.5 yesterday. You can buy it. We should keep a stop loss at ₹153, and our targets will be the first target at 165 and the second target up to 169. The second stock is Nestle. Here, we saw significant sectoral buying in the FMCG space yesterday, Swati ji, in which Nestle was one of the leaders. So, a good breakout was also seen from here. The stock closed around 1491-1492. This can also be bought. We should keep a stop loss at 1475, and our targets will be the first target at ₹1525 and the second target up to ₹1540. Absolutely. So, these are the top two trades for today, Siddharth Raimangala's picks. Ashok Leyland, first target 165, second target 169, keep a stop loss at 153. NSL is also preferred. The stop loss will be 1475 for you. For the first target of 1525 and the second target of 1540, you can buy here. Quickly, a small take on today's upcoming results. Asian Paints is a crude-sensitive stock, and results are also today. What action can be expected? Absolutely. See, Swati ji, purely speaking of the structure, the stock has shown a very good move from the bottom in the last few days. Crude is also cooling down a bit, coming down a bit. So, we will see its benefit here somewhere. There is very good momentum in the stock. If someone wants to trade before the results, they should try to be on the bullish side. In fact, even after the results, if the stock sustains above the 2700 level as a reaction, then fresh long positions can definitely be initiated. An upward move up to 2800-2900 can definitely be seen in Asian Paints. So, 2800-2900, meaning 2850-2900 will be important levels for Asian Paints today. But watch out a bit before the results. Thank you very much for talking, Siddharth. Let's move on and understand the big reports from foreign brokerages as well. Anubhuti is with us with complete details. Good morning, Anubhuti. Tell us, what are the reports saying? Good morning. Starting with HUL in brokerages, JP Morgan has maintained its overweight rating and cut the target from 2550 to 2425. HSBC has upgraded its rating from hold to buy and also increased the target from 2400 to 2450. CLSA has also upgraded its rating from reduce to hold and given a target of 1759 to 1804. Goldman Sachs has maintained its buy rating and cut the target from 2725 to 24250. And Citi has maintained its buy rating and cut the target from 2750 to 2650. L&T also has some reports. Jefferies has maintained its buy rating and increased the target from 485 to 5000. Goldman Sachs has maintained its buy rating and cut the target from 4500 to 4370. And Citi has maintained its buy rating and kept the target at 4650. Looking at Ambuja Cement, Jefferies has maintained its buy rating and cut the target from 595 to 550. CLSA has maintained its accumulate rating and reduced the target from 490 to 480. Citi has maintained its neutral rating and cut the target from 465 to 450. There are also some reports on Chola Investment, where Jefferies has given a target of 2100. JP Morgan has given a target of 2075. We can also see a target of 1900 from Morgan Stanley. Besides this, we are also seeing reports from Nomura, UBS, HSBC, CLSA, and Citi. Thank you very much, Anubhuti, for the complete details. Let's also understand the commodity market strategy. Manoj Kumar Jain from Prithvi Finwat is with us. Good morning, Manoj ji. Amidst speculation of talks, there has been a surprise attack once again. Brent crude is now going towards $88. What next levels are you seeing? What kind of activity do you expect now? Good morning, Swati ji. Absolutely, uncertainty still persists there, and we are not seeing any significant development regarding a peace deal. Talking about WTI crude oil, $78 is a significant support, and the market held that support yesterday. And today, we are seeing a rise in crude oil prices again due to the surprise strike from Iran. So, volatility in the market will be quite high. In such a situation, it is better to make strategies in options rather than futures. We recommend buying the August month call option of crude oil at 8000 at the level of 350, with a stop loss at 240, and targets can be kept up to 450. So, you can adopt this buying strategy for crude. The levels will be in front of you to make a strategy. Gold, Silver, Fed meeting. What specific strategy should be kept in gold and silver before the decision? Actually, the market is becoming quite cautious before the Fed outcomes. And yesterday, we saw a big fall in gold and silver once again. But the market is very close to its support levels. So, selling recommendations at lower levels are absolutely not advised. We believe that the market will hold the support levels of 3910 for gold and 54.40 for silver. So, if silver is available around 214000 today in intraday, then buying can be initiated there with a stop loss of 21200, and targets can be kept up to 21,000. Okay. So, that's the buying advice for silver. Thank you very much, Manoj ji, for talking to us. With this, that's all for Power Breakfast. We are going for a short break. Coming up is Traders Diary, where you will get 20 strong trading ideas for today. On Friday, the four-day weakness in IT broke. It closed up 8%. It should not go below the 50 DMA. When it was strong, we clearly told you to sell at 29,500. We advised selling for four days. Now I am telling you not to sell. For two days, the index was saying this. Now I don't want to fall. I have fallen enough. I don't want to fall now. Should I start buying from here? Lightly. You can see that your stock-specific stop loss is clear. You also got advice to sell at the top, and now you are getting advice to buy again at the bottom. Perfect. Reverse AI trade is very positive for Indian IT companies because the global sell-off in semiconductor and chip stocks, which has been happening, is positive for us, not negative, especially for our IT sector. So, I think you should not be afraid of the sharp fall in Asia today. Today is a big positive for the IT sector. We have given the level of 30,250, that it should move above this. So, it is trading above the resistance range of 29,500-30,000.