Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin. We're going to be discussing what bare markets typically look like for Bitcoin, how long they typically last, and what we can expect from them.
Um, if you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
The first place to start when you think about bare markets for Bitcoin is recognizing that they tend to start in Q4 of the post-halving year. Okay, so there is, in fact, a chance that this time is not different, despite us all wanting it to be. Who doesn't want Bitcoin to go to 200K, right? I would love it if it could do that, but at the same time, we have to be aware that we could be in a bare market, right? And you know, there's definitely like evidence mounting to really start to suggest that, and there has been for a while. We've talked about some of them already.
Um, one of them being like the ROI from the low and looking at this cycle compared to, um, you know, the last two cycles. And if you look at this top right here, it kind of aligns with the last two tops in terms of time. And so because of that, we have to, it would be prudent to at least say, "Hey, that could be it." For a long time, I've said I think the top will either be in October or December, not November. November is what we had last time, and usually Bitcoin doesn't repeat itself twice in a row. So, October or December. Right now, it's certainly leaning towards October. I would say the odds of the top already being in in October are at least 60 to 70% likely. Yes, there's still maybe a 30% chance that it's not. But if we were to get a second weekly close below the 50-week moving average, then the odds would probably go up to over 80% that the top is in.
You know, is there a chance that, you know, Bitcoin could get some type of rally back up and sweep the high on some type of like massive bearish divergence? Yeah, like it's possible. If you look at like the RSI, I mean, all these lows, sorry, all these highs have been lower highs, and Bitcoin's been able to go into higher highs despite the RSI showing clear weakness for a while. The problem is that the weekly RSI is starting to break down. And normally, when the weekly RSI breaks down from like a level that it's been holding for a while, usually it, it, it, in fact, means that the cycle is, in fact, over.
So, when we think about it, we have to think about, all right, well, this seems like a bare market in a lot of different ways for Bitcoin. And that doesn't mean that your altcoin can't go put in new all-time highs. Some alts are already putting in new all-time highs. More altcoins could continue to put in new all-time highs. I'm not talking about your alt. I would, of course, never do that. What I'm saying is that for Bitcoin, it seems like the tides have started to turn here, and that we're kind of in this downturn after a non-euphoric peak, right? It's a non-euphoric peak, which is very different from the 2013 peak, the 2017 peak, and the 2021 peak.
So, in one sense, this time is not different in the fact that it seems like the top's occurring at the same time that it always does, and that's Q4 of the post-halving year. In another way, it's entirely different because when you look at the social interest in crypto, this is a non-euphoric peak. This is not like 2021, and it's not like 2017 in the sense that it's not accompanied by euphoria. And so, why is that? Like, why is there no euphoria? What's going on? Why, why, why did the alt season never happen that everyone kept calling for?
Well, one of the things we looked at recently was the ISM Purchasing Managers Index. And that kind of shows you, is the manufacturing, shows you kind of this Main Street idea of like, look, in these prior peaks, the PMI was way up here, but this time it's way down here. Main Street is struggling, right? They don't have this excess liquidity to go buy crypto with like they did in the last three peaks. In fact, it looks a lot more like again, what happened in 2019, right? It looks a lot more like what happened in 2019, where Bitcoin went up, but it left the altcoin market behind. And so you could argue that we've entered into this type of downturn right here, right? That type of downturn. And if that is the case, then we also have to include that as well in our bare market projections.
Now, in that case, Bitcoin dropped about 50%, even if you exclude the pandemic crash, right? So, let's just exclude that for a moment, and let's just pretend like Bitcoin didn't go through that right there. Okay, it was about a 50% drop. The reason why a 50% drop from the high does seem like an eventual outcome is because you can also see that in all these prior midterm years, or sometimes in other years, but Bitcoin tends to check in with its 200-day moving average. Last cycle, it even went below it. And so when you look at the 200-day moving average, it's currently at around 55 to 56K. Now, by the time you're looking at like mid-next year, it's going to be closer to 60 to 70K. You know, if you look at where it is on that line, you can see how it'll be between say, 60 to 70K.
I need to sneeze. Um, I'm not going to edit it out, but that's what I'm looking at because in 2019, that's exactly the type of drop it got. Exactly the type of drop it got. In fact, if you take a bar pattern, um, on this 2019 top, let me, I can do better than that. Um, and you line that up, right? If you look at that and you just kind of come over here, you can kind of see what I'm talking about, right? Like, you know, it's possible for Bitcoin to bounce back up in here, maybe even go back to 100K a couple of times, but eventually, it seems like, you know, by May or something, it's going to find itself between 60 and 70K.
Now, if you ignore the 2019 bear, or if you want to include the pandemic drop, you could argue that Bitcoin did, in fact, drop about 70%. I am under the assumption right now, and maybe I'll change my mind, but I'm under the assumption right now that we are in this type of a bare market. And the reason is because we are coming off a non-euphoric top. You can have bare markets off non-euphoric tops, just like 2019 showed us. But if it is a bare market off of a non-euphoric top, then the nature of the bare market might be very different than a bare market coming from a euphoric top.
If it is the same, and it doesn't matter whether it's met with euphoria or not. If it is the same, then you still want to look at a chart like this, which shows the ROI of Bitcoin as measured from the peak. Okay? So if you go through all these different cycles, you look at cycle, you sort of the first bare market, and in that bare market, what you're really looking at is you're just looking at this very brief troll down right here. Okay, so that's the first one. And the second one looked like that, about a year. The third one was about a year. The fourth one was about a year.
So, when I look at a chart like this, I think, okay, there's a chance that the low is next October. And that honestly should be the base outcome, right? Is that all right, if the high was in October, then the low could very well be in October of 2026. It's a one-year bare market, and we've had three of those already, and they've all happened in midterm years, and they all started in Q4, the post-halving year. So, absolutely, we need to be prepared for a potential year-long bare market that could take until October.
If you want to include the first bare market and also the 2019 bare market, there is a scenario where it only lasts about half a year, right? Where it drops, but then it kind of like finds support around May or something. And maybe it does something like this, right? But it finds support around the 200-day moving average and tries to hold that by, by sometime, you know, before the summer of next year, before the summer of 2026. It's not like it's impossible for that to happen. I mean, if you look at Ethereum, Ethereum last cycle bottomed in June. You know, if you look at MicroStrategy, last cycle it bottomed in May, and then it swept the low in December, but it, I mean, more or less the low was in May, and then we just kind of double-bottomed half a year later.
What's also interesting is that while it feels different this time for MicroStrategy, so far it's been the exact same thing. In fact, if you take a bar pattern on MicroStrategy here, if you look at a bar pattern of it, hold on, let me fix this. Um, and we just kind of like match this up here. Like if you look at that bar pattern and you overlay it here, I mean, it's almost a carbon copy, right? Right. And yeah, like you're probably going to have a counter-trend rally at some point back up to the bull market support band, which would likely also correspond to Bitcoin USD going back up to its 200-day moving average. But the problem is that it likely will be a lower high. And then if this bar pattern continues to play out, you could see MicroStrategy dropping into early 2026. And if it sweeps the low later, guess what? How many weeks did it take last cycle from the high to the final low? About 98 weeks. Now look at this cycle. 98 weeks would put you in October of 2026, which might be when Bitcoin bottoms if the bare market is one year.
So, we just have to consider it, right? Like, I mean, I know anytime I post anything bearish for the last, you know, few weeks or whatever, we talk about this stuff, everyone's like, "Oh, no," like, you know, but we have to consider it because if we don't, it just seems, it just seems like we're just trying to pretend like it's not happening. Um, and look, guys, I don't flip my bias very frequently. But I'll say this, if Bitcoin gets back above the 50-week moving average before the weekly close, then I will, I will take the bearish goggles off. I'll take the bare goggles off and, and, and I'll look at the market in a different way. But we got to get back up there.
In 2019, we did. After going below the 50-week, we had a wick down and we went back up. In 2021, after closing below the 50-week, we had a wick down and then we went back up. It's not impossible, but I was really, I was hoping that maybe the labor market report would lead to some type of rally, and it hasn't. And so now, with it not leading to a rally, it might take until December to see any type of relief, you know, when QT ends and, and maybe if we're lucky, they cut rates. So that's kind of where I am right now.
This is one of those things where if it truly is a bare market, which seems like the evidence is mounting for, just remember, over the long haul, bull markets make you money, bare markets make you rich, right? The money is made in the bare market, right? The people that made the money this cycle are the people that bought down here, right? Because they could sell even at 87K and they're still up a ton. That's where the money is made. Not as much money is made like late bull market. So, we have to consider, we have to consider that that's exactly where we are, and that there's likely going to be some counter-trend rallies to then draw people back in, only to then go back down. So, I just want people to be aware of that. I want people to be aware that, you know, if this is what a bare market looks like, right, where you get this downturn, and we just showed those four, and here's the current one.
So, if you look at the one we're in right now potentially, and you compare it to last cycle, it's tracking like it's almost identical. If you track it to the cycle before, it's not as bad. In that case, it found a low on day 51, and we're currently on day 46. But I'm recording this on November 20th, and who the hell knows when I'm going to release it to you because I'm, you know, with next week being Thanksgiving and stuff, you know, there's going to be some traveling going on. If you look at the cycle after that, again, perfectly tracking it. Cycle before that, it's not as bad. But in all, you know, all in all, I mean, it does seem like a fairly familiar pattern.
So, I just want you guys to be aware that, you know, what does the bare market look like? How long could it last? I think it's going to last at least six months, um, assuming, of course, assuming the top is in. Uh, and I, I, I think what makes the most amount of sense to me is with an October high, you would expect an October 2026 low. So, that's the way I'm thinking about this and kind of where my bias is at the current moment as it relates to Bitcoin.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time.