Session # 13 - Power of 10 - 19-04-2026 - by Sandeep Manudhane

Hello friends, a hearty welcome to all of you. Power of 10 Analyzing the World Like a Pro, in our session number 13 today, which is the session of April 19th, 2026. Dear companions, Power of 10 is our wonderful series in which every Sunday, in our channel's Membership Level Three, we analyze 10 major global events, or rather, many prominent events, through 10 different editorials. Whoever has watched it has benefited greatly. Power of 10 Analyzing the World Like a Pro is available on the membership of this channel. Remember friends, we are releasing this session number 13 for everyone on the channel. Members and non-members both. We hope it helps many people learn many new things. And many of these people will also join our membership. Thank you very much for watching this session, for liking this session, and for exploring our membership options and joining [clears throat]. So friends, let us remind you once again. The online quiz for Power of 10 is available. For every session, we create a fantastic quiz and provide it online. So, the quiz for today's session that you will get, you already know, today is our session number 13. So, a total of 13 quizzes have been released online so far. The link provided here is also in the comments. If you click, you will go to the quiz portal. And the password currently applicable is Power of 10 Rocks 8. We will change this on Monday. All our members will be informed of the new password. On Monday, or whenever we change it next Sunday, until then, all other people can also check the quizzes etc. Today's 10 articles are in front of you. We try our best to provide very broad coverage in Power of 10, and therefore, we bring topics from different fields. Many students, many members have continuously requested us, saying, "Sir, please include at least one topic on AI in every session. Try taking at least one from the field of AI." So, we will try to do so, and at this moment, because a very big challenge, Cloud Mythos, has emerged in the world, which has literally sent a shiver through the Indian IT sector, and the Indian government is also very concerned. I will explain first why the Indian government is extremely concerned about Anthropic's unreleased model of Cloud Mythos, and why it is our first topic today: Mythos Challenges National Heft Directly. A period of great global change is underway. The effort is that through Power of 10, we can continuously make more and more people aware of these things. If you are more interested in AI, then we have a dedicated course on AI Power of 10 running on our Billion Homes channel. So, go to the Billion Homes channel on YouTube. It is my channel, and the AI Power of 10 there is 100% on AI. I have also released the latest Power of 10 for free for everyone so that people can watch it. Ideally, you should do both these Power of 10s. They are treasure troves of knowledge and will take you far ahead. How to Earn Extreme Poverty Permanently. In the third, we will talk about How to Build a Resilient India. In the fourth, Rural Resilience is the Key to India's Success. In the fifth, we will talk about Mass Migration and Democratic Backsliding in the World. In countries where there has been a lot of mass migration, democratic backsliding has generally occurred. Trump is the World's Biggest Loser. The war between Iran, Israel, and America continues. A round of ceasefire failed. Then talks are happening for a second round. Claims and counterclaims, accusations and counter-accusations are being made from both sides. Both sides are making certain claims that the other side immediately backs down, and the war is now entering a prolonged phase, which could have a very serious impact on countries like India within a few weeks. But in the economics article we have brought, the editor says that Trump has emerged as the biggest defeated warrior from this war. And this is true. We had told you this a month ago as well. In fact, since March 8th and 9th, when commentary on this began on social media, I have maintained a very clear stance that America and Israel have lost terribly to Iran, and I have continuously given all the reasons for that over the past month and a half, and generally, those things are unfortunately proving to be quite true. Unfortunate because war is always a very bad thing. People die. The Middle East is far more insecure now. What were they trying to do, and what have they done? Knowledge-based choke points. We have considered the Strait of Hormuz as a choke point for oil, fuel, LPG, LNG, and fertilizers, right? But knowledge-based choke points have also emerged. And the best example of that is that whoever has gained control over large parts of all the latest technologies, be it quantum computing, artificial intelligence, or space technologies, they have created choke points. Other countries will just stand and watch. How to Manufacture in a Polarized World and Iran's Hardliners Have Risen. A definite outcome of this entire war is that the hardliners in Iran, who will not allow peace with America under any circumstances, have risen. So, as I said, what were they trying to do, and what are they returning with, and they are not even returning yet. These are our 10 articles for today. Let's start today's work. Sitting idly, what to do? We have to do some work. Let's read Power of 10 with Sandeep Sir, taking Sandeep Sir's name. So, this is our first analysis today. We will talk about the Cloud Mythos model. This article is by Rahul Mathan. We will give you an analysis. Additional inputs. A larger exploded form so that you can download and read it. The download link for today's session has been provided. Remember, we are releasing this session for free for everyone on the channel. After this, the next session will be released for free only after 10 episodes. So, let's start understanding what exactly is this Cloud Mythos issue, as they say. Cloud Mythos found thousands of hidden software flaws prompting Anthropic company to hold back its release. So, Anthropic stopped the release of this model because Cloud Mythos found many errors in large software. Software that has been running for decades, operating system software, browser software, database software. This is Anthropic's claim. Now, whether it's true or false, it's a bit difficult to say. But we are assuming they are telling the truth, and why would they lie? So, they refused to release the model. Why would they refuse? Well, giving such a powerful weapon into the hands of cyber hackers would be wrong, wouldn't it? Companies would shut down. Forget companies, if someone hacked the software of large government systems, the entire electric grid that is running, there would be darkness everywhere. Therefore, Anthropic officially claimed that we have not released Cloud Mythos because we did not want the risk of it falling into the hands of cyber hackers, and they would cause trouble to the entire world. But there is a very serious warning in this. As knowledge of this kind spreads, cybersecurity threats will impact national dependence and sovereignty. To put it in simple Hindi, India will have to build these capabilities. Otherwise, such software, which has built Cloud Mythos, will make all your systems literally vulnerable. And hence for India, this remains a top priority. Unfortunately, we have been very honest with our efforts and investments in LLMs, and now we are at such a juncture in history where we are just watching these things pass by. Now you will ask, why did you say that? Well, Cloud Mythos did not release Cloud Mythos, but it created Project Glasswing. In this Project Glasswing, it has involved 40 companies from America and given them safe access to Cloud Mythos, so that they can check their software. And everyone is finding flaws in it, which can be hacked, which are called zero-day vulnerabilities or zero-days. Not a single company from India has been given access. So, this is a geopolitical game, isn't it? And therefore, India will have to build its own such models. We are far behind in that race right now. And there is no immediate hope of that happening. And these issues do not even come up in national debates. So, where will the work happen? So friends, let's start the analysis. The release was paused very quickly. So, the Cloud Mythos that they developed to such an advanced level, they hesitated to release it because it found thousands of previously unknown vulnerabilities across operating systems and web browsers and informed them. So, these are called zero-day vulnerabilities, meaning from the day the software was made, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 30 years ago, some openings were left in its code, which did not affect the business for so many years, but those openings existed, and no one entered through them for so long. But Cloud Mythos is finding and telling that these openings exist. So, this will become a golden key in the hands of cyber hackers, and they will start hacking the software of any big company in the world and demand ransom. This is the danger. Meaning AI has become so advanced that all the old flaws are coming to the fore. Not only the volume of bugs but also their age and placement. Some have been sitting in large systems for decades, untouched, like time bombs waiting for someone to find them. Even in such systems that have a reputation for stability and security, so many vulnerabilities were found. Understand? Exploits become practical. So, this new LLM of Cloud Mythos that they have created, which is a complete AI model, a large language model, has revealed that attackers can combine different vulnerabilities. Meaning, if 15 vulnerabilities are found, they can be combined, and the entire machine or the entire enterprise can be taken over. So, this is the perfect dystopia. Meaning, if there is a definition of dystopia in the 21st century, it is this. And therefore, this is a very big alarm bell for India, and that is why Indian IT companies are currently very surprised, concerned, shocked, and troubled, wondering what to do. Because their software will also have vulnerabilities, right? Everyone does. It's not about India. India doesn't have this tool. It's about this, and that is a strategic issue. No matter how much you turn away from it, when pushed to escape a sandbox and contact the researcher, it succeeded and posted details publicly without being explicit. Meaning, Anthropic is officially saying that Cloud Mythos has gained such capabilities, so hackers can use any software. An attacker can use it for negative use, a defender can use it for positive use. A gun has two uses, right? You can kill someone with it (negative use), or you can save yourself from being killed (positive use). Same with Cloud Mythos, this is what it means. Most bugs withheld. Now, some examples that have come out publicly are those that Anthropic deemed appropriate to tell the public. Beyond that, God knows what else it has found out about whom. Almost 99% of the flaws found by its model, Anthropic's, required patching. It's not that they could have continued without patching. Meaning, they were deliberately problematic. And for this reason, the company did not release the information publicly. Otherwise, another hacker would have found that loophole. Understand? The control shifts upward. From here, some big questions start to arise: if this model is released publicly, bugs will be identified. So, who will fix those bugs? And who will issue the first warning? And that's why Anthropic created Project Glasswing and involved 40 companies. So, the next question arises: why only these 40? Why not 400? And why no company from India? So, these are very, very tough questions that actually warrant answers, but there are no clear answers to the uneven protection. Now, because of this, what is happening? Anthropic has paused its release of the model to the public. This can be considered a responsible step, and in this article, Rahul Mathan says that yes, we believe they are responsible. But small companies worldwide, relatively, some worth $100 million, some $500 million, are still shipping software with vulnerabilities, and ordinary users are being affected by it. So, don't everyone have a right to Cloud Mythos, which has gained the ability to detect vulnerabilities? But even bigger dangers are lurking in the shadows for us. The biggest issue here is that as these vulnerabilities come to light, bad faith actors will become 1% active. Anthropic is a very big frontier lab company. It has gained a lot of fame in the last two years. This is the same company whose Cloud plugins crashed the entire SaaS market, the stock market. Whenever it launched a plugin, companies in that industry would lose 10-20-30% of their stock market value in an hour. This is that company. Anthropic is a big company, a frontier lab. It is better equipped than most firms to guard such information. But can't someone from within Anthropic leak vulnerabilities? So, cyber hackers will wait for that moment. Just a short time before the official announcement of Mythos, more than 3000 internal documents from Anthropic itself were released. Do you understand? And Anthropic itself is not secure. Now, talk about it, the doctor himself is falling ill here. After that, Anthropic's entire CLI code was released. Half a million lines. I made a video on this on the Billion Homes channel. You can go and watch it. So, what is happening gradually? The point is that such mistakes can happen in every company because humans run companies, and humans are imperfect. So, small mistakes lead to large documents being leaked. But the real danger is that as soon as this news reaches the general public that with Cloud Mythos, you can find zero-day flaws within large software, many people will start testing every software. That includes government software also. Now, do you understand the danger? Vulnerabilities will be found in the software of large government portals that are running. All of them. Let me explain the danger with an example. It will be understood in a second. India has a complete national electricity grid, which is ultimately run from a command center, and everything runs on automated electronic software. Enough said, a hint is enough for the wise. So, such models are dangerous. So, before this vulnerability reaches the public, some solutions will have to be found. Many governments constantly have their people find zero-day vulnerabilities in the large software of their rival countries. In 2010, Israel attacked Iran's nuclear program with the Stuxnet worm, and people still remember it. What Stuxnet might have taken years to do, Mythos will be able to do in a few weeks. So, the gist of the story is this: AI has made vulnerability discovery a strategic power, not ordinary technical defense. Now, any country that has developed very large strategic software will constantly be worried about whether there are zero-days in it, because if there are zero-days in it, Cloud Anthropic will find and reveal it in a day or two, and anyone can hack it. Then we are entering a new world, truly speaking. And to what extent are countries prepared? To what extent is India prepared? These are big questions. Questions, questions, answers, a few. These are the seven words that have appeared. We provide additional information, and these are five important technical concepts. Sincere students, make your notebooks, write these things down, and search for information. Some things may seem technical, but there has to be a beginning somewhere, right? Once you read it, those words start to be remembered. When they appear for the second or third time, you will gradually increase your knowledge base, and your value will increase. Software vulnerabilities: hidden weaknesses that attackers can use to infiltrate your software. Zero-day vulnerabilities, also called zero-days: security flaws that escaped the notice of even the software creators. Vulnerability chaining: there were five flaws in your software. By combining all five, a big flaw was created. This is in simple language. Understood, son? So, this is a clear and present danger. I will just say this. I am giving you a few seconds. Look at this infographic peacefully. In every editorial, we bring an infographic so that your learning is holistic and very good. Are you enjoying the session? Then why haven't you liked it yet? Please comment too. Leave two-three comments, but press the Join button and look at the different membership levels. Power of 10 and Current Affairs are available at Level Three. Now, let's start the second analysis. Friends, we have brought this from The Economist magazine. The Price of a Miracle. If governments around the world decide that we want to end extreme poverty, how much money will it take? Do you understand? How much money will it take for that? This is the entire logic behind it. Ending Extreme Poverty Actually Cheaper Than People Assume If Cash Transfers Are Targeted With Better Data. The Economist article says that extreme poverty also has a definition. If we want to end it, then cash transfers, if done in a very well-targeted manner, can be very beneficial. Even imperfect methods suggest the bill is manageable. Meaning, even if the targeting of extremely poor people is not perfect, it won't cost too much. However, politics can spoil it. Delivery failures can spoil it, and conflict will make this task difficult. But ending extreme poverty is a goal for every government. Friends, great thinkers, economists throughout human history have always said that poverty can never be eradicated from this world. Talking like this is not practical, nor will it happen in the next 50 years. This has been said for centuries. Do you understand? In different religions, in different social thoughts, brother, poverty is such a thing that it always remains in their stories and tales. Meaning, you won't hear stories in religions, in religious texts anywhere in the world, about eradicating poverty from its roots. So, it is assumed that poverty has always existed and will always exist. How can it be removed? Thomas Malthus said that scarcity made suffering unavoidable, and he said with chilling certainty, Thomas Malthus, that look, scarcity will always remain, and if scarcity remains, then suffering, pain, and agony will always remain. So, what is the point of debating this? Meaning, he did not say that if we focus on removing scarcity, then he assumed that suffering, pain, and agony would inevitably occur. That's very chilling. Herbert Spencer also talked about the same thing, like Thomas Malthus, and often said that poverty and social Darwinism are linked. Nowadays, these ideas are considered very bad, social Darwinism, because eventually, we also know how the rich become rich. If it was only through hard work that one became rich, then

The matter was around the year 2000 when governments finally started to attack extreme poverty, and for that, they took the help of data. It wasn't just talk; the United Nations spoke of reducing those living on less than a dollar a day consumption by 50% by 2015, and the world actually achieved that. So, measurable targets make a big difference. In management, they also say, "What you cannot measure, you cannot manage." Friends, approximately 1.2 billion people were pulled out of extreme poverty in 25 years. So, the global extreme poverty rate reduced from 43% to just 13%, which is a very good thing. And in this entire reduction, China contributed about two-thirds, and the rest mostly came from India and Indonesia, which is very creditable.

However, after 2015, the pace of poverty reduction has slowed down significantly compared to the previous 20 years. Even today, 830 million people are destitute. And that old hope that aid coming from around the world would ignite growth, people don't have much faith in that anymore. The entire focus is now on Africa because poverty is very high in Africa. It is visibly present in India too, but the focus is currently on Africa. Where past growth has not been possible and where the population is growing rapidly, poverty arrives first. Now [clears throat] and that is also called Sub-Saharan Africa. Africa's total fertility rate is quite high. India's has already gone below 1.9. So, from the birth side, we are shrinking. Africa is growing, but very much, and you will find 70% of the world's poorest people here. Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria could hold up to 40% of the poor by 2050.

So, giving direct cash improves things. You reduce the gap between what poor people have and what they need. If someone is surviving on $2 a day today, and the threshold to escape extreme poverty is $3, then by targeting, you can give them that extra $1 and pull them out of poverty. This cost is not very high. Meaning, the world can afford this cost. But perfect data is not available. If there were perfect data, this annual expense would drop from $330 billion to $90 billion. We are talking about 1990 to 2023. The problem is pinpointing exactly how poor each person is. For many data-collecting countries, this is not even possible. These are still Sub-Saharan countries.

There are limits to basic income. So, one suggestion was to give direct cash transfers, but there was a big problem with data – since there isn't perfect data, there will be some leakage. Another suggestion came: give Universal Basic Income. UBI is a very good idea. Forget whatever people are earning. Everyone should be given a basic UBI, and if this is given at $0.15 per day in poor countries, it would be barely 2 to 3% of global GDP. So, meaning, if a Universal Basic Income is given to the entire population of all poor countries at $0.15 per day, it would only be 2 to 3% of global GDP. So, it's not like this is a very unmanageable situation. It can be done.

More than 130 countries where cash transfers have been implemented rely on proxies. Proxies mean tests. These are based on things like housing material, distance to markets, and many other factors. Proxies mean tests. Because they are very cheap and scalable. But sometimes it has been found that they are very imperfect. In some places, up to 45% of the poor were wrongly missed out. And many people were wrongly targeted. So, smarter targeting is emerging. Researchers at Stanford University say that using data from 23 countries, when we wanted to simulate transfers under limited information, with the help of machine learning and AI, they gave different amounts to different people and checked the cost at different poverty levels, at $2.15 and also at $3. This came to $300-400-450 billion. Now, $300-350-400-450 billion can be considered a very small amount for global GDP.

Real obstacles remain because delivery systems are weak. Conflicts, meaning wars, are ongoing. Incentives get distorted in many places. And if the ruling party does this, the opposition will feel they will lose their appeal in the elections. Yet, the central idea is clear. If extreme poverty is to be eradicated from the world today, it is no longer an economic mystery. It is now a matter of moral will and political choice, to eliminate extreme poverty at its roots by targeted transfer of these funds in one go. This is a very brilliant idea. When AI is discussed, the world's top experts and policymakers are often found saying that we will ultimately have to bring in UBI, Universal Basic Income, because if there are not many jobs, society can only be kept happy through UBI. What is your opinion? Please do share. It's a very controversial idea.

Five technical concepts: Extreme Poverty Line ($0.15 per day), Cash Transfers (basically, you already know, Ladli Behna Yojana is this, what else is cash transfer?), Universal Basic Income (everyone gets a fixed income every month, regardless of their social status), Proxy Means Testing (this is a method to determine if a person is poor or not through indirect indicators; in India too, proxy means testing is done in poverty line assessments), Targeting Optimization. So, all these things tell us, friends, how ending extreme poverty is now more about political will than anything else. In a few seconds, look at this infographic carefully, understand it. I hope you are enjoying the learning, and always remember that the learning process is a long one. You have to keep moving forward by taking small steps, and somewhere a stage comes when what we call the big picture evolves and becomes clearly visible. Right? So, friends, Power of 10 will continue with you like this every Sunday. Today is session 13, and we have released this for everyone on the channel so that you can understand its quality well. Now we come to our third topic, Building a Resilient India. Naushad Forbes says, "Resilience is about interdependence and not self-reliance. We need domestic strength and international ambition both." So, basically, what is he trying to say here? Let's understand this. India's resilience should come from interdependence and not isolation. If India truly wants to be very resilient to shocks, its way is interdependence, not isolation. That will require more competitive Indian firms, more innovation, more trade prices, and a broader presence across Asia, Africa, Latin America, and world institutions. So, by creating more interdependence, India will be able to make itself more resilient. Understood? Let's understand. Let's understand the nuances of what he is trying to say.

Basically, why are all these concerns coming to the fore now? In the last five years, what has happened, first the terrible shock of COVID, and then the Ukraine war, and then the Iran war. All these things have broken the basic assumptions of the globalized world from 1945 to 2020. In the globalized world, there was a rules-based order. Whatever it was, there was an order, there was the WTO, everything. All that is gone. And now it is becoming a world of "might is right." For developing countries, it is a problem that in a "might is right" world, making the country progressive, increasing manufacturing, and growing GDP at a high rate becomes a very big challenge. So, when globalization is threatened, developing countries pay the first price. Did you understand this? So, what is this gentleman saying? Let's look at it. This order all around, the spread of anarchy and disorder. In the last few months, there have been wars, supply disruptions, gas shocks, and steep rises in oil prices. So, basically, the fundamental assumptions on which the world was standing for decades have been shaken to the core. And such terrible wars have happened that people are now getting scared, wondering if all assumptions will be broken? Will there be only uncertainty everywhere? The challenge now is that you don't just have to manage the immediate turmoil. You have to start building deeper resilience for the coming years as well. This is India's real challenge. You don't just have to deal with a possible shortage of LPG, petrol, diesel, etc., for one month, two months, three months. LPG has already happened. What is the plan for 5 years and 10 years from here? Preparations must be made now.

Inward turn has failed. After Galwan, after 2020, India tried very hard to reduce its reliance on China. Investment rules were tightened significantly. Efforts were made to reduce imports. But our situation has become so bad that our exports to China are less than $20 billion. But imports from China have crossed $60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120 billion. We have become completely dependent on China, and our annual trade deficit is $ billion dollars. Our defense budget will be $70 to $80 billion. If I consider this figure for China, we are literally funding them. So, dear friends, I have just given this as an example. So, let's say our defense budget today is roughly $80 billion per year. We invest that much money in our own defense preparedness, and we are giving China a trade surplus of over $100 billion. So, we are literally funding China's defense budget, which is comparable to ours, from our economy. So, our inward turn has completely failed. These are actual hard numbers, brother. What will Naushad Forbes do with this? These are real facts that we could not do this. We could not truly become self-dependent at all. The numbers are actually horrible. It's a different matter that the media doesn't explain these things clearly nowadays as it should. So, interdependence is real. India cannot escape dependence on others for energy, machines, aircraft, intermediate chemicals, and electronic components. So, the framework of self-reliance might not be right. It would be better if we make other countries depend on India for products in which we are uniquely strong in quality or cost. In things where we are absolutely unique and number one, others should become dependent on us. This should be our model. Home base matters. India's medium-term fundamentals are not bad. GDP growth is officially good. Inflation appears to be low. Foreign exchange reserves are above $700 billion, and the balance sheets of banks and companies are decent. But where will real domestic strength come from? Companies that compete internationally and whose products are sold on priority not just in the domestic market but worldwide. They should be the world's number one, two, or three choice. Meaning, we don't have our own Google, for example, or our own Toyota brand today, do we?

Competition builds firms. A very good point is made here: the more competition there is, the better products companies can create. So, the suggestion for the Indian government is: If the government of India wants companies to improve, then policies should expose them to serious competition and not shield them from the best. Without that, they will not be able to grow. And when this pressure comes, it becomes clear within a few months whether this company, which we might otherwise consider a smart and hero company, is actually capable of competing globally or if it's just a show. After the 1991 reforms, there was a structural churn. Meaning, a complete churning started in India, because the old model was breaking, and a new economic model was being formed. Weak companies were going out, and strong companies were gradually emerging, especially in the IT services and pharma sectors. Friends, from 1991 to 2010, three sectors emerged very rapidly in India, creating millions of jobs. The first was the IT sector, the second was pharmaceuticals, and the third was the automobile sector. And these three greatly helped in the creation of a strong middle class in India. However, after 2010, sectors that were employment-intensive did not emerge as rapidly. Remember, the emergence of a sector and the emergence of employment are not the same thing. Data centers are coming to India. Google is saying it will invest $5 billion in Vizag on a large scale. How many jobs will it create? Very few. Data centers do not require jobs; everything is automated. Very few people can run a large data center together. So, we should not conflict the two, not mix them. That causes confusion. So, at that time, some of India's best companies were formed. But after the year 2000, that churn gradually ended. Today, we need it again. A big problem is that Indian private companies do not invest money in research and development. We are not interested in creating our own proprietary technology, technology we own. Our national R&D is running at 3% of GDP. The world average is 1.5%, and aggressive countries go up to two, three, or 4%. So, where are we falling short, brother? Firms should compare themselves with the top 10 or 20 global companies in their industry. Take the top 50 domains in India in different fields. Take the top five companies in each domain. Tell them to focus on the top 10 companies in the world. And compare R&D intensity, qualifications, actual research, and tell us where you stand today. What new products are those companies patenting, registering designs, starting new businesses, entering new markets? What are you doing? Tell us that. When such comparisons are made globally, and this happens through policy and government initiatives, it will be better. So, these companies will want to place themselves on a higher pedestal. They will want to become globally competitive. Otherwise, there is no push. If the domestic market becomes captive, they don't feel the need.

International ambition – this is 50% of the story. So, the Indian government's talk of free trade negotiations is a very good thing. The EU agreement will also be beneficial, and similarly, agreements with ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea. Global South needs action. When we say we are a big leader of the Global South, that's good. We should say it. But what practical alliances do we have that will stand with us [clears throat] in the UN, WTO, etc.? For that, we need strong ties with African countries. We need to make our presence felt in Latin America. Industry must spread out. The government will lead diplomatic efforts, but the work of investment will ultimately be done by corporates. So, our corporates should move forward with overseas investments and go to Europe, Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America, and West Asia. These are big markets, and a CIA visit showed that people like Indian companies and are now troubled by over-dependence on America because Donald Trump's erratic nature scares them a lot. So, this can be a big opening for India in these countries. So, resilience means this. Naushad Forbes says we need stronger firms at home with wider reach abroad. Without that, we will not be central in the world economy. Domestic capability and international ambition have to reinforce each other. Only then will our vulnerability decrease. Not without it. Otherwise, we can say whatever we want in speeches about how when problems arise anywhere in the world, people look towards India. Speeches mean talk is cheap, right? You can say anything, what difference does it make? And when it comes to action, then attention will have to be paid to these things. If you want to reduce your vulnerability, increase resilience, then fine. If not, that's a different matter. So, these seven words that came up, and these five concepts: interdependence, trade deficit, global competitiveness, R&D, comparative advantage. So, our effort is, friends, to give you all those terms separately with a little more input so that if you don't know them, at least you know them now. Comparative advantage is a very big principle of economics. Countries specialize in producing goods they can make more efficiently and trade for others, leading to better outcomes for all participants. Even the biggest superpower will be best in some things, and some small country will be best in others. The good thing for that superpower is to trade that best thing with that small country rather than starting to make it itself. Comparative advantage. Look at this carefully. The entire trade balance, meaning imbalance, that India has with China is a very big concern. Meaning, China doesn't need to worry about India at all. A large part of India's economy will shut down if China bans exports. We are importing $120-130 billion annually from China, and we are not even exporting $20 billion. These are really big questions that our policymakers have to now start addressing. They are going unaddressed.

Now, after covering the topic of National Resilience, we come to Rural Resilience. If there is resilience in our rural areas, India's overall economic tenacity will progress quite well. Are you understanding which topics we are going to cover in this? So, many things will be covered together in this. Okay? It's a very good topic. Very good. Look at this. Absorb this a bit. Before I start the analysis. Shall we start? Let's start with full enthusiasm. India's economic resilience depends heavily on whether rural households can earn steadily, spend steadily, and withstand shocks. See, urbanization in India is less than 40%, and India is one of the least urbanized countries in the world. 60 to 65% is still rural or suburban. So, India's entire economic resilience will depend on what? Whether rural households can earn steadily, spend steadily, and absorb shocks. Because that is the majority population, right? Welfare helps in crises. Meaning, various welfare schemes from the government help a lot in crises. But you have to build lasting strength. You have to fix rural jobs, productive infrastructure assets, and policy design, everything. Without that, it won't happen. So, it's a good opportunity for revision to look at and understand the government's policies towards rural India and to know its nuances well. Let's start, friends. Reverse migration. When the COVID lockdowns were suddenly imposed in April 2020, six years ago, millions of workers in the informal sector, migrants in fact, walked to their villages. A person walked thousands of kilometers. And after that, many of them did not return even after the pandemic ended. You understand? Because of this, the rate of urbanization in India also decreased, and the share of India's population that was working on farms actually rose. So, due to excess labor, the daily labor wage on farms also came under downward pressure because the number of people increased, so rural pressure widened. Is everything understood so far?

Brother? After the Iran conflict, as the LPG supply has been severely disrupted. Meaning, it is available in the market at four to five times the rate. So, those coming from villages to cities slowed down a bit, but the underlying concern remains the same. So many people have gathered in rural labor markets that the downward pressure on wages has become very high. Because there has been a lack of work opportunities in the villages. MNREGA, which has now been completely scrapped and become VBRA MG. Its old dynamics have also ended. In these circumstances, when they made VBRA MG, VBGram, or VBGramG, no one had any idea that this war of Iran would happen. The government never even dreamed that such a huge war was coming, which would cast a dark shadow over all supply chains. Otherwise, perhaps the government would not have made this change at all. PLFS, the Periodic Labour Force Survey, its data also keeps coming from time to time, and it has captured the post-Covid shift very well from 2021-22 to 24. It says that 8 crore 30 lakh jobs were added, 83 million jobs, out of which 4 crore were in agriculture, and women's own account self-employment rose very sharply. So, when women's self-employment rises sharply, they are very low-income jobs. These are not formal sector jobs, are they? Do you understand? Consumption has stayed very soft. These big changes are now clearly visible in household finances. Because real earnings and consumption are running below the previous trend of the 2020 Covid pandemic. Are you understanding? So, this average monthly per capita consumption of rural India has increased from 3773 to 412. So, will this be called a revival in so many years? Relief has its limitations. You can provide some security net from the budget. You are already providing free food. You are providing welfare support for households forced back into villages. Because those who left the cities during Covid and then did not reverse migrate, you are supporting them there in the villages. That's good. Some disruption can also be reduced with a little administrative effort. But ultimately, this is a structural issue. You will not be able to finally resolve it by applying a band-aid with these temporary measures. So, the three authors of this article are trying to explain exactly this to us. Better work is needed. So, finally, we are coming back to that. We have to create employment. The design of rural schemes should be such that excess labor is put into quality jobs, not low-productivity work. This has been said for years. There is some improvement, but the wholesale change that is needed has not happened. This will increase income, then consumption will increase, then GDP will increase. The link is absolutely simple. You increase income, real wages. Real wages would be net of inflation. Then consumption increases. Consumption increases, then GDP increases because production has to be increased. The cycle runs like this. You have to reinforce that cycle by creating more jobs. Sustainable rural livelihoods during lean crop periods and non-peak manufacturing seasons can reduce both underemployment and disguised unemployment. Underemployment means less work, and disguised unemployment means it appears that they are employed, but actually, they are unemployed. If there are work opportunities for 12 months and rural infrastructure and productive assets are improved, then only income and development will happen. Why is all this being said about the rural sector? Because it is 60 to 65%. If we leave it behind, then where will resilience come from for other things? What is the article? India's Economic Tenacity. For India's economic resilience. So, the rural population and scale are important for the entire nation because 60-65% is there. It is not in the cities. Stronger rural incomes will definitely take the country forward. Currently, the vision of rural development being presented is considered very inadequate in this article. Whereas the Rural Development Ministry was created precisely to eliminate structural poverty, livelihood insecurity, and infrastructure gaps. Today, this ministry runs many very good programs. Their focus is more on welfare. Whereas developmental ambitions should be number one. Some old schemes have underperformed, and they are now being gradually brought into a more integrated rural development architecture. When these initiatives, the Prime Minister's Rural Roads Scheme, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, were introduced, they gradually expanded and took on the responsibility of roads, employment, infrastructure, housing, and social protection. But unfortunately, rural consumption did not increase as much as was expected from them. So, the simple fact is that we probably need a new approach. In the Union Budget 2025-26, a new proposed RPRP was introduced, which talked about bringing income stability, diversification, and resilience to shocks. But a NITI Aayog sub-group and a Karnataka study have shown that the assets created under MNREGA often lack quality and durability. The bottom line is, will you keep rural policy only on relief and welfare, in fragmented schemes, or will you convert it into better livelihoods, better assets, and durable local opportunities? So, this RPRP term, which has appeared twice, was actually in our Union Budget, and what was it called? Rural Prosperity and Resilience Program. A multi-sector program was introduced for the first five years of 2026-27 for 100 agricultural districts, and MoRD will run it. The main goal of this Rural Resilience, Rural Prosperity, and Resilience Program was to ensure that people do not move from villages to cities. Rural Prosperity and Resilience Program. So, that is the meaning of RPRP. RPRP will help only if it is designed and incentivized in such a way that long-term rural goals are met. Otherwise, everything will remain short-term. So, this was a very different kind of article. We thought it was important to cover it once today because after the LPG crisis, as people are returning to their homes, small crises have started to arise everywhere. Reverse migration, disguised unemployment, rural consumption demand, MNREGA, livelihood diversification. Okay, friends, now let's move to the fifth one. When Immigration Helps Bad Rulers Survive. Friends, mass immigration or mass migration and democratic backsliding, these two seem to go hand in hand. Immigration means people leave their home countries and go abroad. They need better opportunities, safety, and freedom. Do you understand? So, if that happens, if people leave in distress, then the leaders who remain behind are very happy because if educated, sensible, well-read, liberal people leave the country, then the autocratic ruler will have a field day. He will have a great time because there will be no voices left to speak. So, play a one-sided game. Mass immigration, leaving the country, can strengthen illiberal rulers. Those who are not liberal leaders, meaning leaders who believe in might is right, are very happy with this because citizens who believe most in freedom, honesty, and accountability are the first to migrate. So, the latest studies now show that when people leave their country for their personal safety and opportunities, democratic resistance begins to weaken very rapidly. So, the autocratic leader rules that country for a long time. Do you understand, my child? Good. And this story is nowhere better illustrated than in Hungary's elections. Péter Magyar, the opposition leader in Hungary who won, fought his election saying this is the last serious chance to stop Viktor Orbán, otherwise Viktor Orbán will become the permanent king of this country, and after that, it will not be possible to remove him until his death. He will become despotic. In 16 years, Orbán had already become one. Orbán called himself a nationalist. But he removed meritocratic and independent-minded people from all institutions, removed them, removed them, removed them, and put his cronies everywhere. The word "cronies" is best for such people. Because they have no identity of their own. They get an order to do this, and they do it silently, and in return, their needs are continuously fulfilled by the government. So, Orbán had placed his cronies everywhere, in courts, in the media. Money was continuously coming from the European Union, and illiberalism had been well-established everywhere in Hungary. Orbán faced a weak economy and many corruption scandals. But his opponents knew very well that despite all this, this person would last for a long time. JD Vance, the Vice President of America, himself went to Hungary and openly supported Viktor Orbán. So, that he is fighting for Hungary's civilizational greatness. The opposition knew very well that such talk gets support. And then there was this fear. Although the election has happened since then. Its results have also come. If there had been another Orbán victory, the governments of Europe would have been terribly scared because the liberal Hungarians would have truly left. When free-minded citizens, tired of illiberal [clears throat] autocratic rulers, meaning elected leaders who have become kings, leave the country, that country begins to fall into a deeper abyss. It's a very simple reason, isn't it? Because now there will be no one left to raise their voice, so who will oppose? So, it becomes a one-sided game. A student from Budapest is mentioned here. This student says that immigrating is very selfish, and this student was afraid that this is a very selfish thing to say because with my departure, the number of people opposing Orbán will decrease. And the way anti-gra laws were accepted and harsh repression was accepted. It became very difficult for liberal people to stay in Hungary and easier to leave. Eventually, people are selfish. So, this book that has come out connects rising migration and democratic erosion. It states that in many countries around the world, good people leaving their countries is one reason for democratic erosion. Their hearts do not allow them to live amidst injustice. And this is also, to some extent, brain drain. But this is actually not a loss of technical talent. It is a loss of political talent. People who believe in good values. In humanity, in freedom of speech, in harmonious existence, in fraternity, in an expansive view, etc. So, between 2015 and 2019, 110 million people continuously moved between different countries. And in this particular book, on which this entire article is based, it is stated that we interviewed thousands and understood them, and in these surveys, it was repeatedly found that those who wanted to leave their country were generally more liberal people because they wanted free speech, they wanted government accountability, and they continuously expressed their views on corruption and stolen elections. This sounds familiar, reading with Kaush. Now, these patterns are quite complex because popular destination countries are richer, safer, and full of practical opportunities beyond politics. Immigrants are often young, better educated, and eager for new things. So, actually, it is not necessary that there was only a political angle. Many things can overlap. So, in this way, they have conducted a complete survey and tried to connect immigration and democratic erosion. Then they also explained that someone moving from country X to country Y. A diaspora forms there, of their migrant communities. But it is not necessary that this diaspora remains a liberal bloc. Because someone will surely infiltrate from the back home, a supporter of the illiberal dictator. Do you understand? And when Vladimir Putin attacked Ukraine on February 2022, there was a division among Russian immigrants living all over the world. And older, younger, educated Turks have received very few election votes to date. So, these are all trends. But despotic rulers benefit greatly if they push out unhappy citizens. Fidel Castro did this in Cuba. Repression in Hong Kong has been ongoing from China since 2019. Many liberals have left. So, many mainland Chinese graduates came and started living there, who do not know what opposition to the government is. So, the bottom line is that immigration can offer freedom and dignity to individuals, but it can drain countries of citizens most likely to resist autocracy. So, this works as a double blow to that country, a loss, and on top of that, a double loss. Immigration out, and immigration in. Democratic backsliding, brain drain, diaspora politics, selection virus, everything is fine, brother. Everything is understood, no problem. Good, shall we proceed? Sixth, Trump's Foolish War Economics. The magazine is likening Trump's war with Iran to a foolish war, stating that it will cause immense damage to Trump. It will cause immense damage to the world, and it has happened exactly. As you all know, it's almost 50 days, and all sides have suffered terrible losses because the Israeli and Zionist camp was absolutely certain about one thing: the story would end in seven days. Kill everyone, do this. The entire regime would collapse. The exact opposite happened, and they ended up losing badly. Trump's war with Iran has strategically diminished Trump greatly. Peace is nowhere in sight. The regime has not ended. The threat of building nuclear weapons remains. And on top of that, the world has seen the limits of America's power. The second-order effects of which will be significant later. So, it would have been better for America if Trump had not declared war at all. This is what is being tried to say. Understood? Biggest Loser. This point has been made from the very beginning of this article. Let me read it out to you. Not all wars have a winner, but every war has at least one loser. And if the ceasefire marks the end of the war in Iran, which has not happened, the biggest loser will be Donald Trump. So, it is directly stated that Trump will suffer the most terrible loss. He is suffering. Even if the ceasefire holds, Trump will be remembered as the biggest defeated warrior. They entered with such wide ambitions. Everything has backfired. How hollow American power turned out to be. Peace talks were initiated, but the dispute remained on some core issues, which is very surprising. Because in such large peace talks, these core issues are usually resolved first. But it seems like there is no conversation between them. There is a dispute over Lebanon. There is a dispute over Israeli attacks. There is a dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. And therefore, the Islamabad talks also crashed. Trump cannot own it. Trump is now avoiding restarting this war. It's visible, isn't it? So, they have moved their ships far away in the name of blockade. Because they know that if I restart the war, I should not have started it in the first place. Now, if I do it a second time, my remaining legacy will also be destroyed. So, he does not want to risk it. He gives big threats on Twitter and social media, but those threats don't mean much anymore. And it seems he is preparing for a retreat. I will make the Middle East a golden age. Yes, you remember, right? All those things. He will build rivers there in Gaza, and there will be data centers everywhere. A golden age is coming to the Middle East. Here, drones and ballistics are arriving daily. Brother, what kind of golden age? Smell the coffee, man. Iran has also restrained its hands a bit. Not because there has been a lot of softness. Iran is repeatedly telling America to end all sanctions. And if it gets some time, Iran will benefit from negotiations. And it has understood one thing well. America cannot stand on a permanent war footing here. So, it is in Iran's interest that it continues to put as much pressure on America as it wants. Are you getting this? So, what will happen now is, forget about collapse, etc. No matter how wounded Iran's regime becomes, the power will not slip from its hands, and there will be very tough bargaining. Iran's asymmetric warfare has made everyone's life miserable. So, when Trump says that it was a great victory for us, all the objectives have stubbornly remained unmet. If it was a great victory, then where have your objectives been met? This region is not safe. The regime remains in place, and Iran can move forward on the path of nuclear capability at any time. So, in the regional security of this entire region, if you attack and destroy America's 13 military bases, then what kind of net security provider is America that it cannot even protect its bases? This question will never be answered by America. Do you understand? Iran runs its proxy network through Hamas, Hezbollah. Israel has destroyed some parts of it. Iran has found new ways. It will put pressure on the Gulf states through the Strait of Hormuz. And pay tolls in Yuan. This is a terrible nightmare for America, what they went to do and what they have returned as. The GCC countries' confidence has completely broken because they know that they cannot play their game through pipelines. Protecting our critical infrastructure from Iran's missiles and drones will not be possible at all through pipelines. So, whatever GCC countries are there, they will have to ask America questions: are you reliable, or perhaps we should settle something with Iran now? Because how long will we live with such a threat? Now think, on February 28, did Israel and America ever imagine in their dreams that they would have to see this day in April? But that day has come, hasn't it? Regime survives pressure. So, the regime has stabilized itself. We have discussed this separately at length. Nuclear risk has increased more than before. Iran has 400 kg of highly enriched uranium ready. The path from there to a nuclear weapon is very short. Now Iran wants sanctions relief. America will say hand over all the uranium. Iran also wants to build nuclear bombs for deterrence. So, for Iran too, it is now a matter of choice. And if Iran builds a nuclear weapon, America will immediately start respecting it. What high thoughts Donald Trump has for Kim Jong Un. What a joke is going on in the world? Israel and America have both realized their strength. They have also realized the limitations in strength. In America, 60% of people in surveys have started viewing Israel unfavorably. America's moral authority has eroded. You cannot justify weak resupply and strategic drift in the name of AI-enabled efficiency. And sheer firepower still struggles against asymmetric resistance. So, AI can do nothing against the asymmetric war that Iran has waged. So, the bottom line, the summary of 100 things, is this. Strength is always useful, but strength without restraint and judgment is never useful.

It is not. The war that America sold to its public as decisive is appearing impulsive and corrosive. Donald Trump's legacy is finished in this. Republicans have a good apprehension of a very long-term injury. That is why a saying is used in military language. Remember, this is a military plan. Nothing ever goes as per plan. America found this first-hand test in front of a real country and real weapons. It kept crushing smaller countries. So America's foreign policy establishment is not understanding how to tackle such a country now. Look at the ceasefire, sanctions, deterrence, asymmetric warfare, nuclear proliferation once. Look at the infographic. I hope you are enjoying the session. Power of 10, we present it like this every week. Press the Join button and join the membership. It is available at Level Three. The complete UPSC course is available at Level Five. Stay connected for a long time, keep reading, keep learning. Slowly, slowly, by accumulating brick by brick, you can create a vast edifice of complete knowledge. A complete fort can be built. It takes time. Hard work is needed, but knowledge is gained. Let's move forward on the journey of knowledge. Analyzing the World Like a Pro, Session 13, we have reached the seventh. It is a very long article. It took a lot of time to read. Deep things are written in it. With a whimper. Basically, even a Western-oriented magazine like The Economist has understood that a big mistake has been made, and the Middle East has become more insecure than ever before. So what is the benefit of such wars where you have moved from security to insecurity? You were secure before. Now you have become insecure. So only a military genius could orchestrate this, sir. So first, look at this. I am giving you one minute. Look at this and understand a little. After that, we will start reading. Look at this and read it according to yourself. I will read it anyway. Let's begin. Friends, there was a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. It put a pause on the very brutal fighting for that time. But across the entire Middle East, in all the GCC nations, a sense of instability and uncertainty has spread. Military, political, and economic pressures are making future conflicts more possible and harder to control. This is the whole story. Do you understand? This is happening in the Middle East. Friends, war leaves a sense of unease. The war has, on one hand, resulted in crushing Iran, finishing it off, like Venezuela, Libya, Iraq. Oh, nothing of the sort, it's the exact opposite, and all the GCC countries must be crying, "Why didn't we stop America and Israel from doing this?" This entire region has now become much less secure. Compared to before February 28th, Iran still has missiles, drones, and uranium today, and America has no scheme, no actual scheme, to stop the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. You don't have a blockade, I will impose a blockade beyond this, then you will open it, I will blow it up, then you say I will blow you up. Then global trade will end, brother. Security doesn't come like this. And America knows it. It knows it more than anybody else that it is stuck, and stuck very badly. Because of all this, the Arab anger is rising dramatically. In this entire conflict, the Arab public opinion has hardened throughout. As news of Israel's brutal attacks spread, resentment towards Israel's actions has risen throughout the Arab world, which was not so much before. And frustration at the limited American restraint. Regional governments are facing greater pressure at home, making it very difficult to overlook Israel's actions in Gaza, which they are doing. Diplomatic balancing will now be very difficult because this war has completely eliminated that remaining consideration. Israel's tactical claim is that it broke Iran's air defenses, destroyed aircraft, and parts of its military infrastructure. But Iran has been firing missiles and drones at Israel daily, and most of them have passed through. So the people of Israel are all hiding in bunkers, where sewage lines are mixing, and life is becoming hell, and real damage has occurred in Israel. The way the UAE has imposed complete censorship. Damage that occurred in the UAE. If anyone transmits from there, it's direct jail. They are beating people with sticks in jail. Even fair-skinned people, they enter your home, check your mobile, and if they find any photo or video of incoming missiles and drones, it's off to jail. This is the situation in the UAE. They are suppressing it like this. And complete censorship in Israel. News is not coming out. So things have trickled out from here and there that the damage is indeed very significant. Do you understand? Dubai is worried about this. After all the effort to build the image of the most secure global financial center, Iran has tarnished it. And to regain that, who knows how it will happen now. So what do you think? Has Dubai lost the plot finally, or will Dubai recover and re-emerge? The war is not going to end anytime soon. Even if the major conflict ends, a low-intensity conflict will continue, continue, continue, continue. Keeping these circumstances in mind, please answer what you think. Will Dubai re-emerge as what it used to be, or is the story over? Give detailed comments, it's enjoyable. And write without fear, man. Who are you afraid of? India is a sovereign, secular, socialist, democratic country. You have complete freedom to speak with liberty. You don't. When did it stop? Iran avoided defeat. Iran's leadership presented survival as victory, and I agree with that because after such a terrible attack, if the regime stands its ground, it has worked on multiple layers of redundancy for a very long time, which we cannot consider less than a victory in itself. There is no doubt about this. Those Iranians who have left Iran and settled in America, especially the first group who dreams of becoming king and does podcasts from America, they had a lot of hope initially. But after that, they understood that the Islamic Republic is not going anywhere. Rather, there is now another threat to them. A threat has arrived for them. Friends, you might remember that Iran has released a list of 18 American companies, stating that these are the 18 companies that have technology assets in GCC countries, which are used to attack Iran. So none of these will be spared. These are legitimate military targets. Deterrence is weakened. Now, neither America nor Iran has achieved decisive dominance. Because of this, the deterrence of the entire region has ended. It has not strengthened. So this is a good military learning for us. Two countries are fighting each other. One wants to achieve decisive victory over the other, and it is a very big country. But it cannot achieve decisive victory, and a kind of stalemate is occurring. Because of this, the deterrence effect that was supposed to be created on this country did not happen. In the broader region where this big country has allies, they became even more afraid that deterrence has weakened further. Now, both Israel and Iran have understood one thing: that both these countries, meaning Iran regarding Israel, and Israel regarding Iran, will not stop fighting even after enduring so much damage. This means that future wars between them are 100% certain. Donald Trump intervened and through his tweets, social media messages, sometimes he talks of love? And the next moment, he says, "I will wipe you off the face of the earth." So Donald Trump is critical but unpredictable, and because of this, his friends are more troubled. Enemies are, but enemies have slowly understood that his words have no value. Friends are very troubled, wondering how to interpret this man. What should we do? What should we say? The meme was made for this day. Netanyahu is now presenting this entire story as a success and twisting it. And from Washington, meaning America, some red lines have been drawn. He has a dream of creating a Greater Israel. That is why he has entered Lebanon and started occupying a large part of it. But America is holding his hand back a little bit, only because Iran has shown its hand. Otherwise, America would not have stopped him at all. The power of the hardliners in Iran's IRGC has increased significantly, and the moderates have suffered. Kalibaf, the current Speaker of Parliament, and Mustafa Khamenei, and their entire network around them, have taken control of Iran very rapidly. Iran's transport industry and communication have suffered a lot of physical damage. America and Israel have bombed them a lot. They have even destroyed their schools and hospitals. So Iran's civilian economic damage is very high. Because of this, the regime's control will increase further, because now they can do anything in the name of internal security. The Strait of Hormuz is all topsy-turvy. Today something else happens, tomorrow something else. Yesterday, bullets were fired at it. Today, he is talking of love. Tomorrow, he is imposing a blockade. The day after, he is imposing a blockade on the blockade. World trade and globalization do not happen like this. From 1980 to February 28, 2026, the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz would always remain peaceful and open, that assumption of world trade has gone up in smoke. So I don't need to say much about the consequences after that. A hint is enough for the wise. Multiple supply chains are going to be ruined and destroyed because of this nonsense going on. To put it simply, friends, if tomorrow Donald Trump directly goes to Iran in the morning and hugs everyone, including Kalibaf, and everyone else, Peshiyan, Seyed Mohammad Marandi, and Arachi, and they all have tea together, laughing and talking, and he says, "I am the best. I know more about Iran than you do." I am fully convinced that if Trump reaches the Iranian parliament tomorrow, he will definitely say in his speech, "Iran, great people, I like you. But I know more about Iran than you do. I have read everything about Iran there is to be read. I am the best." He will leave from there saying this. Even if this happens, it will take a year for world trade to normalize because 50 ships left from there today. When people say this, it will take 50 days for them to reach their destination. By then, all those machines in the refineries will be shut down. Supply chains in continuous operation industries, a delay of more than two-three days means it takes a week to shut down and restart, brother. This is not a small shop where you open the shutter and start working. So this is the economic damage, and you should consider this damage for at least a year if love and affection are spoken of tomorrow. Otherwise, draw your own conclusion. Friends, the vulnerability of the Gulf is clear. How hollow the GCC countries have turned out to be, and everything depends on the Strait of Hormuz. Exports, imports, oil, gas, goods. Saudi Arabia and UAE have their own pipelines, the Red Sea. But pipelines can also be blown up, right? And the Houthis can block the Red Sea. This means Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar will be severely affected if the war escalates further because they are directly in Iran's firing line. It will be very difficult for them to survive in this situation, and if things get much worse, then UAE too, because UAE has been continuously provoking America, saying "strike, strike, strike," and Iran has been noting this from day one. The ceasefire has stopped the conflict, but it has destroyed the instability of this entire region and weakened deterrence. Without a structural change of trust, the next confrontation will ruin everyone, and everyone means the Middle East, everyone, not just anyone. Do you understand? So American petro-imperialism has put everyone's life, yours and mine, in grave danger. Ceasefire, deterrence, proxy warfare, chokepoint, escalation ladder. Look, the escalation ladder is a very important concept. In any warfare, when two people face each other, an escalation ladder is prepared on a chart for the entire war gaming. Action, reaction, action, reaction, action, reaction, action, reaction, action, reaction. How will it go up? If we do this, what can they do? If they do that, what will we do? If we do this, what can they do? And the last is nuclear war. So there are different steps like this, and all of them are mapped out in detail. This is called the escalation ladder. Trump's escalation ladder was exhausted on the seventh day. Because the game was that Iran would be finished in seven days. All of Iran's oil would be ours, like Venezuela's. But the story turned out to be the opposite. Now, from the eighth day, Trump had nothing left to go up on the escalation ladder. So the spectacle that has been going on for 40 days is this. If Trump intensifies the attack further, world oil prices will destroy the global economy, so he cannot do that. If Trump goes and hugs them, the Democrats will tear him apart, saying, "We elected you as president for this, and you used to abuse us. At least we brought back the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was actually a very good thing." And Iran was ready, and America was ready. Trump came in and said, "I don't like this JCPOA. I am going to get a better deal. No one does deals better than I can. Can you do a better deal? No, I will do it. I will do it. I know it. I am the best." There is a lot of damage from boasting, brother. I am telling you. He should have had a little control. But she couldn't keep him in check. He ruined the whole world. So this is called the escalation ladder. And Trump has no way to go up. The escalation ladder is completely locked for him. And Iran understood this game. And its ability to take damage for a long time is exhibited now. So its fear is also gone. And once fear is gone, there isn't much left, brother. So this is the whole story: the world changed before our eyes. Friends, my entire video series on global affairs is running on this channel. For those who have joined us for the first time, find that playlist and watch all the videos from number one to the end. A very good thriller series is being made. Enjoy it. Israel's goal is very simple. It wants to create a Greater Israel, and it will happily do whatever destruction is necessary for that. Iran's goal is clear. It wants to create a Greater Iran. Now, think beyond this, what all we are going to see in the next 5 years, especially now that Iran has revealed its hand, which was hidden. Before February 28, 2026, it was a very different Iran. After killing Senior Ali Khamenei, a next-level Iran has emerged, and Trump himself brought it out. Iran was not going to reveal it on its own. So this happens, brother, due to excessive cleverness. Are you enjoying it? Are you learning? Write something good in the comment section, it will be enjoyable. We have reached the eighth. The Real Supply Chain Crisis. Pranay Kotasthane, you are writing, "Who will talk about knowledge base chokepoints? Sandeep bhaiya has talked so much about commodity chokepoints. But why doesn't Sandeep bhaiya talk about knowledge chokepoints?" Oh, Kotasthane sir, we started today's Power of 10 with Cloud Myth, saying that India does not have such a model. This is the chokepoint. So, sir, we are fulfilling our duty. Sir, your accusation is wrong. So this is our eighth analysis. And how knowledge chokepoints can be as dangerous as commodity chokepoints. Commodity chokepoints affect prices. It is affecting LPG, isn't it? But the market does something. It finds substitutes, recycles, and somehow survives and gets out. This does not happen in knowledge chokepoints. Because specialized capabilities take 20-30 years to build. And the market is not fixed, like throw money and watch the show. 2-nanometer semiconductor fab chips, chips made in a fab, will they be made just by throwing money? That capability built over 20-30 years, will it be built instantly? ASML, which makes ultra-lithography machines, will China be able to make them just by throwing 10 billion dollars? It also needs 10 years of hard work. This is called a knowledge chokepoint. And because the 21st century is the century of knowledge, whoever controls more chokepoints will become the king, my friend. Repeated panic cycles, we repeatedly hear about China stopping rare earths, or Iran blocking Hormuz. So some inputs are mentioned that people have never heard of in their lives. Rare earth, more earth. Nobody knew about this. Then in 2025, it was revealed that China is strangling the world. News of obscure inputs emerges. Modern industries come to the brink of closure. A small part of production suddenly makes claims that the entire supply chain will break, and it actually starts to break. It's not like these are baseless talks. Narrow focus problem. These dependencies are not fictional. But the way of reading them is becoming very narrow, dramatic. People do not talk about where weaponization attempts were made and failed, because it doesn't get TRP. But if you study a country that tried to weaponize a resource it had and tried to intimidate with it, and it didn't work, then you will truly understand how the market adjusts, and you could have too. But it's not getting TRP, so the media avoids those news. Negative results matter. Scientists call this negative results. Meaning, you went out to cause disruption and couldn't achieve it. Such evidence often doesn't get space, and therefore policymakers only see vulnerability and an inflated appetite for alarm. They don't see that many times the threatener actually couldn't do anything in the end because those things are not documented. China first imposed licensing controls on Gallium and Germanium in August 2023, and a ban on the US in December 2024, stating that these things will not go there. Gallium is used to make semiconductors and optoelectronics, and China completely dominates the low-parity supply. So people became very serious about this. The prices of high-purity Gallium tripled. Do you understand? From ₹1 to ₹3, meaning a 200% rise. So when the prices of high-purity Gallium increased by 200%, consumption in America did not decrease, it remained the same, and it did not collapse at all. The amount China used to send to America dropped from 55% to 18% because America imported it from Canada, Japan, and Germany. The Gallium market adjusted. China's threats had no effect. Yes, there was a material loss, things became expensive.

In Germany, a weaker hand emerged. Because Belgium and Canada had already supplied 93% of the US's needs. So when Beijing stopped providing its share, it increased prices and harmed America. But what he wanted, to force America to completely bow down, that strategic leverage could not be formed. Cooperation always beats self-reliance. America did not exit from gallium and germanium because it was self-dependent, self-reliant America. But it was interdependent. It adjusted with many countries. Canadian processors, Japanese suppliers, German refiners, Australian recyclers. All of them together helped America. If America had relied only on itself, perhaps it would not have been able to do such good work. A solitary national policy may not have been helpful as much as Canadian, Japanese, German, Australian help was. This is a very big lesson of global trade. Those who repeatedly talk about autarky, economic full self-sufficiency, they should keep this in mind. Talk about cobalt. In 1970, when the cobalt dispute began due to wars in the region, prices increased. But new sources of cobalt were found in the world. Molybdenum was found as its substitute. Where it was used, efficiency increased, so its requirement decreased, and due to old stockpiles, business did not stop. So the 1970 Cobalt Crisis is an example of how we should behave in the 21st century. Russia tried to weaponize gas and oil against Europe. So you know, European countries reduced Russian oil imports and gas imports, and through India, they continued to buy Russian oil. India kept taking oil from Russia. It was refined in petroleum refineries. Petrol products were exported to Europe in bulk. So they didn't take it directly. They took it indirectly. The understanding of Europeans also deserves praise. Meaning, foolishness under pressure, imperfect. So Europe then started the attack. Shipping insurance increased. Many insurance companies are European. But it doesn't have a very direct impact. Russian exports gradually moved towards Asia. Enforcement on sanctions could not be done properly. And neither could Europe knock Russia out, nor could Russia knock Europe out. Meaning, economic weaponization is a very difficult thing. On paper, it seems like I will ban this, ban that, the other party abuses. Having fun in Power of 10. Oh, this fun increases every Sunday for two good hours, brother. In this lecture, keep in mind commodity versus knowledge. So these commodity chains adjust because new sources come. Substitutes become viable. Efficiency improvements reduce demand. Unfortunately, knowledge choke points are not like that. Whether it is EDS software, EUV lithography, advanced chip making, it is 30-30 years of knowledge. Here the author is trying to explain that we need to understand the difference between commodity choke points and knowledge choke points, because in commodity choke points, the market and cooperation bring balance back, but in knowledge choke points, it cannot come at all. Therefore, research, allied coordination, and targeted support are very important instead of broad panic. So when you read this, you will understand it more deeply. This distinction is most important for supply chains. He explains this at the end. And he says that governments should pay full attention to knowledge-intensive choke points, because market forces will not benefit here. A research agenda is needed that includes documentation of negative results. Successful weaponization is already documented. So this was the backdrop to all the talk about EDS software, EUV lithography, and ASML. I hope you got a new insight. This article was excellent. Five important technical concepts: supply chain resilience, negative results problem, commodity choke points, substitution effect, knowledge choke. Real supply chain crisis shifts focus to knowledge. [Clears throat] I'll give you a minute. Look at this carefully. Our team has prepared this infographic very beautifully. I hope you are finding the value addition good, and we await your comments on all the editorials we have analyzed today. I read all the comments. I apologize that I cannot reply to many. But we do read the comments. All comments are read. Okay. All well. Shall we move on? So friends, manufacturing in a politicized world. What a brilliant analysis this will be. How do I build and run a factory in a world where globalization is no longer an end in itself? Which has been a blessing for India from '91 to 2022-23-24. So how should India now run its industrial policy? That's the whole story. Okay friends? Geopolitics is breaking the old trade order, and India's manufacturing weaknesses are becoming very clear. India will have to do import substitution in strategic things. Otherwise, we will be seen feeding China $100 billion a year. We need to increase our exports. We need to increase industrial R&D. Indian companies have no interest in R&D. The private sector doesn't want R&D. I'm telling you very bluntly. All the R&D in India is on the boards of the government sector, government labs. All the big companies, the richest man in the world, the second richest man, the 25th richest man, they won't do R&D. They will do everything else. Whereas the real strength of the country is R&D. You should understand the character of our industrial system from here itself. And we need companies that compete globally. Not a single company whose product is used by everyone in the world. America and China both have them. India has none. They are happy capturing their captive market completely, not letting anyone else in through protected politics. So we won't be able to move forward by doing all this. So the author is saying, Nitin Desai understands. As soon as the pressure of oil came on prices and availability, a crisis arose across India. So we are starting to understand that there will be problems with things. The United States has stepped back four steps from cooperating with its elites. And the United Nations Charter, who knows where it's gathering dust. This means the world has become such that might is right. Power matters more. So its impact will also come on India, won't it? It's not just about West Asia, brother. The old warning is that when India saw Trump last time, and in the context of global economic relations, what used to be free trade in the world, Trump was engaged in destroying just that. Free trade, less politicized globalization and finance. For decades, in the 1980s, 90s, and even largely in the 2000s, trade and business were free. Its financing was free. Globalization was a good thing. Globalization. All these pillars, Trump is blowing them up with bombs. After 2008, anxiety increased a lot. Because developed countries were stunned by China's power. And after that, gradually, the path for the rise of people like Trump began to clear after 2008. Supply chains started breaking because the linkages that existed with many countries are now virtually under direct attack. Reshore production, these slogans are being raised in all countries: what you have offshored, reshore it, reshore it, reshore it. Big MNCs are directly threatened and pressured: don't invest there. Invest this much here. Business doesn't work like that. Business never works like that. But now business is happening like this. Francis Fukuyama recently said that America's friends are now more worried than its enemies. If this happens, America will literally give up the global crown it wears. China is no longer an emerging economy because it is now dominating global manufacturing. And using its strength, rare earths as political leverage, in 2025 it had almost brought the Indian auto industry to the brink of closure. We have entered that world, friends. So let India accept that the world of globalization is gone. That world is long gone where trade and finance were detached from politics. Now every country is pushing its own firms. Relying more on barter deals. Capital will tighten. Direct financial controls have not yet arrived, but governments, especially in America, their view has become that pre-capital movement has caused a lot of damage to America. And therefore, capital controls have gradually arrived in America. Meaning, the last bastion will fall. Because of all these things, India now needs a lot of policy change. State capacity needs to be strengthened. The current weak state of manufacturing in India needs to be reversed. Because manufacturing is now barely 14%. Friends, on August 15, 2014, Narendra Modi was giving his first speech as Prime Minister from the ramparts of the Red Fort. In it, he had promised that by 2022, we will make manufacturing 25% of GDP. It has fallen from 17% to 14%. Forget 25%. So India now needs to do import substitution on vulnerable inputs in its manufacturing policy. We need to put all our strength in the direction of how to increase our exports. Increase India's percentage in global manufacturing to 5, 10, 15. China's is 20. We need to think beyond tariffs. Big rich people in the private sector, this $50 billion, that $100 billion, this family has $200 billion. Tell them to invest billions of dollars in R&D. They don't. They want to spend on their private expenses. They don't want to do R&D. This is the truth, friends. The author has written it. So in India's case, we are very low in absolute terms, and in percentage terms, we are 1/4 of China's GDP. So how will this work? How are you going to compete? So basically, instead of having 100% faith in globalization, make an active manufacturing strategy. Otherwise, there will be a lot of trouble ahead. We have reached that point, friends. Globalization slowdown, politicized trade, import substitution, global competitiveness, state capacity. Good terms. Look at them carefully once. And here is its infographic. There are many good small facts. Many of you might find them very useful in various exams. Look at them carefully once. Okay? Is everything clear? No problem? We complete today's analysis with the 10th point. Iran's regime has changed for the worse. The drama that has been going on for 50 days has had a direct result: all the moderates have been sidelined. And the hardliners have come to the center after the attacks by America and Israel. It's the opposite of what they thought. Friends, after this war, the leadership in Iran has consolidated around Ali Khamenei's son, Mostafa. The veterans of the IRGC have come to the front lines. And the religious leaders are seen standing at the forefront. Liberals already had difficulties, but this conflict has increased those difficulties manifold. This will increase the dangers in the entire region, not decrease them. The billboard in Tehran, you can see it in the picture. It had a warning. Ali Khamenei is standing in the trenches, guiding IRGC commanders against Iran's enemies. This is trench warfare, and Mr. Khamenei is standing there. Basically, it is being conveyed that there is a divine purpose, and the future for the enemies is completely dark. Because militarized clerical rule will dominate, it will have its own drawbacks. The change that was thought of by Washington, meaning America and Israel, that as soon as we bomb the biggest figures of Iran, kill them, kill them, kill them, kill them, the regime will change, and very moderate-minded successors will come. Oh brother, nothing of the sort happened. In the vacuum that was created, leaders have now come who will not compromise at all. And that cognitive dissonance with Trump, it was seen in some of his tweets. He writes anything nonsensical these days. He thinks it's happening like that, but it's not happening like that in the real world. And many people are saying that some leaders have become much more hardline than before. Mr. Mostafa is at the center, and when his father and many relatives were killed by Israeli bombs, everyone together chose Mostafa. After that, he has not been seen in public because it is said that he also suffered serious injuries and is undergoing treatment, and he is currently in seclusion. But from the instructions he has given, his determination is clear: no matter what happens, he will not bow down, and he will crush the enemies and also those who raise their voice from within. So instead of ending this war quickly, Iran is releasing missiles, drones, missiles, drones, missiles, drones, again and again, saying we have tens of thousands, so how long will you last? So in this way, whatever preparation the Khamenei family and the IRGC had made before this war has now reached its peak, and this preparation has been going on for 30 years. People didn't know Mostafa before, but he was prepared, and that preparation has been very good. The Habib Circle is formed with the Revolutionary Guard, Basij, and intelligence services. It includes very old security figures like Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, and all these people have a record. So it is said that these are radicals, and Israel will face great difficulty from this. The entire security apparatus, secret police, etc. See, very few people know that when the last king, Pahlavi, was in Iran, who was driven out after the Shia revolution in 1979, he ruled for 20 years through SAVAK. SAVAK was their secret police, which was established by Israel's Mossad. Israel's Mossad and the CIA together created SAVAK, which helped Pahlavi crush everyone in Iran for 20 years. There was so much public anger towards SAVAK that this Shia revolution became possible. So I thought I would give you a hint about its background. The reformists have always been suppressed in Iran. This is absolutely true. So a messianic creed has spread. Power has now gone into a very tight alliance of clerical heirs, security veterans, and believers. The space for reform-minded people has gradually diminished. So what does this mean for us? What it means for us is that the next 5 years of Greater Iran versus Greater Israel will not stop. This is what it means for us. Hardliners, reformists, IRGC, mass belief, elite capture. So the world stands at a strange juncture. India will have to work very hard on its choices, its strategic decisions, its resource sufficiency, and nothing will happen smoothly. Now the challenges will increase day by day. So the sooner we prepare ourselves, the better it will be for us. There is a very simple, straightforward message in this. So friends, with this, we conclude today's class. Please do solve the quiz. Our password will also change very soon. I hope you enjoyed it. So, let me show you again what we covered today. So friends, join Power of 10 today. We release sessions like this every Sunday. You must have enjoyed it. It's a treasure trove of knowledge. This series will continue. Join it. Stay connected for years. You will benefit greatly. So, the 10 topics we took today: In Topic 1, we discussed how the strategic challenges of AI for India have been exposed by cloud myths. Then we discussed how to end extreme poverty in the world by directly giving money. We talked about what needs to be done to build a resilient India. Because 65% of India is rural, rural resilience will save India, we talked about that. In countries where liberals migrate out, autocrats remain in power. Hungary, Viktor Orbán, whose power is finally gone. Trump has become the biggest defeated warrior of this war, because this war should not have happened at all. Mossad and the CIA gave him all the wrong information. The Middle East has become more dangerous than ever before. And the biggest beneficiary of this will be only and only Iran. Knowledge-based choke points, which are built with 30-30 years of hard work, you cannot compare them with material commodity choke points, brother. How to manufacture in a politicized world. India had a long time when it could have made its manufacturing world-class. That period of globalization has ended. Politics has now entered everywhere. There should be free trade. There should be free financial flows. Those concepts are gone. Now you have to recalibrate. And Iran's hardliners have now taken power. So friends, this was our session for today. We will meet you again next Sunday. Hopefully, many of you will have joined our membership by then. Thank you very much. Namaste. Jai Hind. [Music] So.