Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, the program is quite packed. We will talk about BTC, we will look at the weekly closes. We will also talk about an indicator that many consider bullish for this month of November. We will review a trade on Ether that I took today and we will look at three altcoins requested for analysis. I noted Note, Render, and Plume. Before I start, I remind you of the current offer for the 3rd anniversary of the Become a Trader program. I remind you, the program will evolve and the price will increase. Okay? Starting January 1st, we will enter an even more complete program in a new era, truly with more personalized, more in-depth, more intense support with live sessions, with group work. The fact that this program is evolving like this, it will clearly become a mentorship and the people within the program will progress even faster, more in-depth, and truly become even more autonomous and profitable traders than they currently are. So already, you can take advantage of the program at the current price while benefiting from future updates and in addition, you get €200 off right now. This is clearly the last time you will be able to benefit from such a low price on the program and you will of course start to be able to train and learn before January 1st when the major program update happens because you have over 30 hours of video here. It's 3 years of updates since the first masterclass, for 3 years I have continued to update the courses. These are years and years of experience where I share all the knowledge, the skills within it so that you clearly become an autonomous trader. You will see my setups, my strategies, my best indicators, my best tools, how to enter positions effectively, how to manage your risk well, your psychology, etc., etc. You have in-depth private message follow-up, a call with me, coaching, support, and all of that will also evolve, of course, on January 1st, 2026. So really, this program is for all people who are starting out, who want a framework, support, who want to know how to trade effectively, but even for people who have been trading for a while and want to start again on solid foundations, who want to refocus because they don't have a good strategy, it's clearly the best program and in addition, I remind you, you take no risk with the profitable trader or your money back guarantee. If at the end of the program, you are not profitable, I invite you to refund you the full amount. So you take no risk. I take all the risks for you. If you want to take advantage of the offer, you will find all the details. You can either contact me by private message, or click on the first link in the description to activate your offer.
So, I'll start here with BTC. Regarding the weekly close, we'll start because it's in 7 hours and well, we're coming back to test this level of $107,000 again and we have a buyer reaction again with another rather bullish weekend, a bit less volatility than the last weekends we've had. But well, we're saving the weekly close again, especially on Ether which we'll review later, and for now, we're still in this sideways phase. As I told you, I remain cautious. We are in a market context that is quite particular and harder to trade, at least in the medium to long term. That doesn't prevent taking small trades like I did today, I'll show you just after. But here, we're more into intraday trading. Now, there is indeed an indicator that many people are talking about on Twitter right now, it's seasonality. And many are saying that November, historically, has been bullish. Here I am on CoinGlass. We have seasonality here. This allows us to see historically over the last 12 years the performance of each month. This allows us to calculate an average and to see globally which months are the most interesting. And it's true that historically October and November have been good months for BTC and crypto. Whereas May, June, July, August are generally rather quiet months, even September. These are not the best months. And I see this circulating quite a bit right now. Now, it's quite classic in reality at the beginning of each month. For example, it was the same for October, where many said that October would explode because it's the best month. Well, it's true that since 2019, every October has been rather profitable. This month, not at all. And you have to get out of the mindset of saying "Okay, it's not because all Octobers or all Novembers, historically speaking, have been rather profitable that it's 100% certain that this next month will be." That's how it is, and many don't grasp this notion of probability, that it's not because an event has happened several times that this time it's 100% sure it will happen. And even if I go further, be careful, October and November have been phases where historically we could perform well. That's a fact. I'll switch to logarithmic. That's a fact. Last October, it was when we broke this level. We had very good performance. October and November. Here, these are also months where we break. Okay? But you shouldn't forget that October-November 2021 is also when we hit a market top. So that's to make you understand that it's not systematic. Here, October-November are months where we break, but October-November here... well, we perform, then we hit a top a bit later, in December. But you see what I'm trying to make you understand is that it's not always a period where we systematically perform. Okay? But it's true that historically they remain rather profitable months. But I remember the top that occurred in November 2021. Okay. And then, we experienced a phase of decline, a decline. So, we are clearly in a phase where we need to be wary and not start trying to reassure ourselves as many people might do here and there by taking an indicator and saying "Ah, look, you see, these are people trying to reassure themselves." For me, that's how I see it. That is to say, everyone has their own way of trading, their own way of investing, they have their strategies, and in phases like this where the market is uncertain, and I'm the first to tell you that we are in a phase where it's complicated, where I have a crypto cash balance of 50/50 because, well, the direction is much more complicated, in my opinion, to determine for the future orientation of the market. So I prefer to have this allocation to be flexible, regardless of the market's direction. There are people who will send you to the moon because they are so insecure and don't have a strategy and can't say "Ah, well, it's complicated, I admit it." Well, in the medium to long term, I find it a bit harder to trade. They will be forced to look for other indicators. Seasonality is something I use, and there's nothing wrong with that. But it's not because I say to myself, "Ah, well, Novembers have been bullish before, so this month, ah, I'm going all in." That's it, it's 100% ATH direction, we're going to x2. Maybe it will happen, and if it does, so much the better. But in phases of uncertainty like this, my goal is simply, as I said, to preserve my capital and absolutely not to tie up all my capital to one indicator, which many people might do. So, clearly, be wary. Yes, historically November is bullish, but it's not systematic. So, now, if I start with BTC from a technical point of view, well, we bounced off the lower extremity. The objective would be to retest this zone of $112,500 to $113,000, which is a zone that has long served as support and resistance, which was for me one of the important pivots. But given the price development recently, for me the biggest pivot now, since we stopped twice at this level, is the $117,000 level. And to really have a strong bullish confirmation of a breakout, it would clearly be to go above this level. Because if we do that, we could clearly say that we have entered a new range within this large sideways phase. Whereas here, if we do that, we would clearly have a good breakout and for me, we would have a high probability of reaching the ATH. So for me, for now, on BTC, I remain patient. I am patient. It's the weekend, be careful, we can expect volatility on Monday because there are ETFs, etc., etc. By the way, speaking of ETFs, for now, we have outflows. And again, this is an indicator that many can talk about. Ah, we have inflows, it's positive. Historically, when I look at the price evolution compared to inflows and outflows on spot ETFs, well, every time we have very strong inflows, we are at a market top. We see it here, we had very strong ones, we have historical peaks here too. Here too, well, we see that we are at market tops when we have strongly positive inflows. And when we have outflows, okay, exits, conversely, we form bottoms. We see it here, we often form bottoms when we have outflows at this level. At this level. Well, it's quite frequent. So here, we have outflows, so potentially, we are forming a bottom. And often people think the opposite, that when we have strong inflows, they anticipate that it's bullish. Except that when we have very strong inflows, it means it has already happened, okay? These are entries that have already happened, okay? The market has already priced them in, okay? That's what you need to understand. And when we have outflows, it's the same. Don't say "Ah, that's it, we have inflows, ah, it's going to go up." No, it has already gone up because we had these inflows. So it's rather that when we have outflows, we look to position ourselves, and conversely, when we have big peaks like this, we can clearly exit. So be careful with the interpretation of these inflows and outflows on spot ETFs as well. But from a technical point of view, still in this sideways phase, I also look a bit at market psychology right now, to see how participants are behaving. Here, if I look, we still have fundings that are rather neutral, not too much. Yes, we are in the green, but we are very often in the green on fundings, but we don't have strongly positive fundings like we experienced in this period or like we experienced, if I go back strongly to March 2024 or even here in November, December 2024. Well, for now, we have rather low peaks. With the liquidations we've had, I think that panicked quite a few people as well. And here, in this sideways phase, there isn't a lot of open interest. We even have a CVD that is rather decreasing, rather oriented downwards, which shows us that there are quite a few aggressive sellers at this level. We also see it on futures, we are rather in a phase where, well, there is selling pressure as if there were quite a few sell markets being absorbed by passive buyers. I remind you, these are perhaps more technical indicators that I share in the Become a Trader program, but more technical indicators that I can explain quickly. CVD is Cumulative Volume Delta. It accumulates the difference between the delta of aggressive buyers and aggressive sellers. In short, it simply accumulates the delta. If I go into depth, what is delta? Delta is simply the difference between aggressive buyers and aggressive sellers. And CVD accumulates it, which allows us to see over a session, over a candle, whether there was more positive delta or negative delta. Perhaps delta seems a bit more unclear to some people. I can perhaps go into a little detail here. If I take the volume footprint here, we'll look at what's called the footprint. Not very well known among traders because here we go even deeper into order flow, but within a candle, we can simply see the difference between aggressive buyers and aggressive sellers, it's simply sell markets and buy markets, the orders that are directly executed, and when you place an order in the order book, well, if it's a buy market, it's executed directly, and within the candle here, we'll see sell markets and buy markets, and we'll see on the side the number of BTC that were sold aggressively and the number of BTC that were bought aggressively. Okay? And we simply calculate a delta, we subtract the two, we see if we have a positive or negative delta. And if we have a positive delta, well, we simply have an increase in CVD. If we have a negative delta, we have a decrease in CVD. This allows us to see within a candle whether we have aggressive buyers or aggressive sellers. Now, we have both, but the importance of delta is to make the difference between the two and to see if, for example, on this bearish candle, there were many more aggressive sellers. Okay? On a bullish candle. At this level, we had, well, it's not because we have a negative delta that the candle is strongly red. We can have more aggressive sellers but buyers who pushed at the right moment when there were no sellers present and who managed to pump the price. Okay? This can be counterintuitive for some, but we can have a negative delta and a green candle, and we can have a positive delta and a red candle. Okay? This is difficult to understand and I cannot explain it in 5-10 minutes. It requires going a bit further. But in short, CVD is, as I said, the cumulative volume delta. It simply accumulates the different deltas we have here on these candles. It shows us the evolution. It allows us to see if we are in a phase where we have a lot of aggressive selling or aggressive buying. So globally, do we have a positive or negative delta? And it allows us to see if we have absorptions, bullish or bearish divergences. Because when we are in this kind of situation where we simply hop at this level, where was it? It was here where we simply make a low on the CVD. Whereas here, no, I thought we were making a high, but let's assume we had made a high here. We would have done something like this. That is to say, here, hop, we go a bit lower. Okay? That is to say, we have what is called an absorption. That is to say, here we have a low on the CVD, whereas here we have a high. Which would explain to us that sellers pushed much harder, but the price didn't go lower. That is to say, we have absorption and we have passive buyers who simply absorb these aggressive sellers. As I said, it can be technical, it's normal. We are on a more advanced part of trading, and order flow is a part that is not easy to understand, and I try to explain it as simply as possible, except that sometimes you have to use the right words, and I never prepare my videos in advance. It's not scripted, but I think with the terms I've used, it can be easier for you to use. In any case, if you have to remember something, if you are a beginner, there are two types of orders. Aggressive buys and sells, that's everything that is buy limit, sell market. And passive buys and sells, that's everything that is limit orders waiting to be executed. Already, if you understand this, it allows you to better understand the market's evolution between these different types of orders. And already, you can go into a bit more detail on everything related to order flow and the evolution of CVD and how to interpret it in relation to price. Then, if you have questions, you can contact me on Discord. Well, I hope I haven't confused you too much with this explanation on CVD, but it's always important. And tell me if you're interested in me going a bit deeper into tools or explanations that can be more complex, but sometimes it can be interesting. That's also how you progress. Okay. In any case, on BTC, I didn't take any trades today. I didn't have any setups executed. We are still below the medium-term moving averages, too. Below the 1-hour tunnel and below the 4-hour tunnel. We see the 1-hour tunnel. We are rejected within it. So we don't have a real recovery and here, rather low volatility. The fact of being here inside the 15-minute tunnel with a rather full tunnel. Okay, on BTC.
I'll start with the trade I took here on Ethereum, which is still ongoing, but I took a partial TP at the weekly pivot point at this level because all the conditions were met, and well, I already have a good risk/reward at this level of 2.34. I have a total TP at the other daily pivot point, which is also at a level of interest. So, a trade that is still ongoing, partial TP, it's nice to have these kinds of trades on a Sunday. Sometimes I have fewer setups executing on the weekend, I'm a bit less in front of the screens, but here, I was at the right moment, the setup executed perfectly. It's a trend following trade. That's all. I have ETH which is rather bearish with downward oriented moving averages, the 1-hour is downward oriented, the 4-hour as well. From a price action perspective, we are also at a resistance zone. If I switch to 4 hours, we'll see it a bit better. We are at a zone of interest that has served as support, resistance, resistance, support, and then also as resistance. So, a zone of interest. I have a confluence between the 1-hour tunnel and the daily pivot point. We are moving slowly without strong bullish momentum. We see that every time we make highs, it's mainly liquidity grabs and re-entries. Okay? So here, I have a contact at the daily pivot point and the 1-hour tunnel. I also have a weakening in the shorter term with this bearish divergence. I have a bearish signal, a red candle on the WT cross. I enter the position at this level. In addition, I have a small M pattern, entering at the close of this red candle. Stop loss above this high. Okay? And as I said, first target is the weekly pivot point, second target is the daily pivot point. And I don't think I'll keep this trade overnight. It will depend on how it evolves, but I don't think I'll keep it overnight, I'll cut it. It will depend, I'll see how the market evolves at this level. But in any case, my stop loss is at break-even. So, well, my trade is already winning. And well. After that, I never base myself on a single trade to say whether the trade is good. That's something very, very important. But in your reflection on a trade, you should never say whether your trade is good just because it's winning. That's something that might seem counterintuitive, but it's true. Tomorrow, if you take a random person on the street and they take a trade, their trade might be positive, okay? It might be winning. Does that mean they made a good decision? You don't know. You can't equate the result with the good decision you made because there's always the factor of luck. However, it's over a large number of samples that you can evaluate if your setup works. Okay? A loss means nothing. A winning trade means nothing. And the goal is to simply have an Excel file. I don't know if I have it here. Well, this is an example of an Excel file that tracks all the performances of a setup. Not the setup I showed you just before for the trade I took on Ether, but another setup. And well, it simply allows me to have a set of statistics and to know over time, with a large number of trades, here I have over 250, to simply see the evolution of my trading performance. And it's also where you can notice things that you wouldn't see if you don't have this kind of tracking. For example, phases like drawdowns where you chain quite a few losing trades in a row, like here where I might have 15 losing trades in a row, but with good risk management, with 1, 2, 3, 4, let's say 5 trades, you've recovered a negative performance over 15 trades, and that's simply called having a good risk/reward. We have the example here: when I lose a trade, I lose about -1%. However, when I win, I win 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, or even 6% for the biggest ones. We see it, it's a setup that works with a 41% success rate, meaning I'm more often wrong than right, but with good risk management, it simply allows for an interesting evolution, and if you don't make this effort to track your results, it will be very difficult to gain perspective and to be profitable in trading. And this is also a setup that I present within the Become a Trader program in Module 11, Trading Setups. Two setups, there, which I share, it's a 100% mechanical setup for people who join the program. They will have access to the Excel file with all the conditions to enter positions, and they can use this type of setup. But the most important thing to remember here is not to show you "Ah, see, I have a setup that works and that's it." No, the goal is to track your results. Have an Excel file like I showed you before. It will simply allow you to have this ability to judge whether your setups work in the long term. And here, we have proof that I showed you before: it's just with a difficult phase of 10 losing trades in a row, with two or three trades, four trades. If they are well executed, with a good risk/reward, you can clearly compensate. And that's often when you trade and you're in a losing phase like this, you're really focused on that loss and you only look at that. Whereas sometimes, you just need to zoom out and realize the evolution of your capital, the evolution of your strategy. And these are difficult phases, but they are perfectly normal. Okay? Yes, it sucks. Yes, it can be psychologically tough, but you just have to stick to your strategy. Okay, BTC is done. Ether will be quick because yesterday I talked about it, and in the meantime, not much has happened. I think the weekly close will be saved. Once again, we have a good close here as long as we don't start settling below $3007-$3800. So, well, I think it's on its way to another good weekly close. We'll monitor the next close on Ether. We are still in this sideways phase, blocked between two boundaries. So for now, I'm not confident, I'm waiting, I'm patient because we are at a support level, but there's a lack of buyer reaction, a lack of flow, a lack of pep. Okay? And for that, I prefer to clearly wait, as I said, have cash in case we go lower. And what I know is, I want to say, I know nothing. And since I know nothing, I prepare for the worst, but I also prepare for the best. Which allows me to be flexible. I might not be the person who will put the biggest size here and if it goes up, who will take the best trade. But I won't be the person who will take the best short and who will take the best TP here. But I will be the person who, if we go lower, will have the ability to take cash and enter positions, which would allow me to get good low points on Ether and on other altcoins. And if we go higher, I can simply take profits. Currently, I am in this mindset, and it's especially the strategy that suits me best right now. Now, it's personal to me. It's not why you should do the same thing. Some will prefer to take a long here. For now, as I said, I'm in a phase where I'm waiting. Okay for BTC and ETH.
We have ICP which continues to perform very well. We saw it yesterday and I told you, be careful, we looked at our performing altcoins. What did I tell you? I told you that TAO is currently standing out, and yesterday we saw, I told you, ah, ICP, we have a very good breakout underway, we've come back to test a historical level, okay, we have a liquidity grab and immediately a buyer reaction, and I think ICP is set to be a strong crypto for the coming days. We see that for now, we are maintaining the 3-minute tunnel which serves as support. We see well here at the moving averages, we can accompany this trend, and ICP is an altcoin that can be interesting to trade because currently there is flow, there is momentum, and it's an altcoin that will be very good for trend continuation. So we put moving averages like this. I was also asked what my indicator is. I'm sharing it with you. Timeframe Vegas Tunnel. Hop. And you add it's this one. Now, you can add pivot points. Okay? Otherwise, you don't have to, there's another indicator, the Timeframe Vegas Tunnel, which is itself, hop, you can add it without pivot points, but it's two in one for indicators. It can be practical for those who have free TradingView. But ICP is breaking out well and is perhaps set to retest at least the daily tunnel, or even higher levels. That's possible.
Now, regarding the altcoins requested for analysis. So, I said I have Note, I'll take Binance. Oops. Do I have a chart with more historical crypto data? Not at all. Well, this is a crypto that is clearly ugly in a bearish trend. And I would be curious for people who own Note. Unless it's purely fundamental. You say it's an amazing project and in that case you entered. Okay. Those who are positioned from a technical point of view, I would be curious to know where the signal you got was, at what point you saw an interesting signal on this chart because I don't see any. Either you FOMO'd at the big pump that happened, you said "Ah, I'm missing out" and you entered at the top. And then you suffer this whole decline. But I don't see at what point there was a place, a level where you said, you said, sorry, there's a buy to make. Because when I look here on weekly and long-term, we make decisions on weekly, we make them on 4-hour. On daily, we can refine, why not, but on weekly, there was no reversal pattern, there was no buy signal. When I switch to line chart, we only have lower highs. We see it clearly, at no point did we have a reversal structure, something that shows us that, that's it, we're going back into a bullish flow, into bullish momentum. No, there was none of that. If I put moving averages, I'll switch to daily to see them better. We've always had here a 4-hour below the daily tunnel, with downward oriented moving averages. Here, we had a sideways phase, there was no real concrete breakout. There was no breakout, there was nothing. So either you are not positioned, and in that case, good for you. If you are looking to get positioned, the best advice I can give you here is to wait for a reversal pattern, to wait for a buy signal with a W structure. Either we have a re-entry of this level, well, simply, we go back above this zone, and in that case, we would have a bullish signal because we would have a re-entry. But I would like, I would be in the daily tunnel, so ideally, it would be better to go above the daily tunnel and then pull back to the daily tunnel, that would be more interesting. But for me, the best pattern would be to have a W structure here, something like this with a pullback. And then, yes, I would have a bottom drawn, and a bottom that would be clearly buyable with an invalidation below the structure. That's the only setup I see from my side on Note.
Regarding Render, we talked about it a while ago, no, not long ago, I was going to say rather not long ago. It's not interesting. Render is clearly not interesting. Why? Because we didn't have the reversal pattern we wanted to see at this level. Okay, we didn't have it. We were still trading below the daily tunnel, which acted as resistance. You see, we see it clearly. That's the importance of being patient, of having breakouts, of having a reversal of our momentum. For now, we are still in a bearish momentum with a daily tunnel that rejects every time. So what we need here is clearly the same, a re-entry, a reversal pattern, and here we are breaking away from this support level. We are returning to 2023 levels. The importance, once again, of taking profits. Okay? If you don't have a profit-taking strategy, well, you're probably regretting it because Render performed very, very well. We had a very good run, and Render had a bull market, that's a fact, but it also had, that's what I wanted to come to, a bear market. Here, very simply, the evolution of an altcoin: bull market, market top with this M pattern structure, accumulation, W structure, pump, bullish trend, exhaustion, market top, dynamic reversal, bear market. There was plenty of opportunity to take profits, plenty of opportunity to enter positions. Here, clearly, a person who mismanaged their trades on Render, for me, it's a lack of experience and a lack of, they mismanaged their entries, they mismanaged their profit-taking, and they're regretting it because there's no way there was an interesting signal to enter Render when it pumped so much and then we're at too high levels and then there's no reversal signal. Eventually, we might get one here when we validate this W structure. The problem is that it's quite high, I find, and we're entering close to our neckline of this M, of this MP. So it's less interesting. However, if we come back here and offer a reversal pattern, then it could be interesting to position ourselves in this zone or a bit lower. Okay? If we retest much lower levels like the lows of 2022-2023 and we have a buyer reaction, then that would be interesting. But for now, I'll wait, you put the daily tunnel and you wait for a concrete breakout of the tunnel.
And the last crypto, Plume. H, well, it's not great. Same MTP at this level, we see the reversal structure clearly. Okay. Here, neckline, pullback at the neckline level, rejection. We're trying to structure a W pattern here, but we clearly got rejected. We had a liquidity grab here, we didn't break, and ultimately, deviation, re-entry. Objective: reach the opposite extremity. So, this is rather ugly. We are losing this sideways phase downwards. Okay, we are continuing this bearish trend. Range squeezed by a bearish momentum, more likely to break downwards. I'm putting moving averages, we see that we were rejected in the daily tunnel and we still have downward oriented moving averages. Here, there's nothing to do. Either you short, you look for shorts, at least pullbacks to continue the trend, or you wait for a pattern to decide, to form, sorry, and form a W structure. That's the only thing I could do on PL as well, but there's nothing to do. Otherwise, the chart is young. Same, I would wait for a larger W structure like we could have had here, which would have led to a buy signal, but we didn't get it. But if we go lower, it could clearly be a bottom being drawn.
Okay, I've analyzed your altcoins. You can put in the comments which ones you want me to do next time. Don't hesitate to tell me in the comments what you think of the current market, how you find it. If you have questions, don't hesitate either. And I invite you to join the Become a Trader program for those who want to take advantage of the current offer and especially to prepare for what's next because the crypto market is complicated and in my opinion will continue to be complicated. The first link is in the description if you want to join the Become a Trader program. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for a new video.