Transcription
We have just experienced one of the most violent crashes on the crypto market. Apart from Bitcoin, it's especially the altcoins that have taken a huge hit due to the current lack of liquidity. And all this because China has just blocked its meteorites. So Trump responds with a 100% tax on Chinese products, and as a result, investors are panicking because this can reduce production, exports, and therefore the economy itself. So we had an immediate reaction on the American indices with this enormous drop yesterday, which was literally unpredictable. Obviously, these are macro news that fall like this overnight. And so, we will see what could happen, the key levels, what happened, where we could go, and so on and so forth. Just before we start, I remind you that our algorithm service is still available, and the importance of having algorithms running, especially in these moments, since some algorithms can capture dips when you can't, when you're sleeping, and so on, and that's the purpose of these algorithms. To access it, it's free. You keep 100% of the gains. It's the first link in the pinned comment. It will take you to this page. You just have to click on this second link right here. This will allow you to register on Bitgate via our partner link and benefit from these algorithms. Why this link? Because Bingate is currently offering a contest with up to $10,000 to be won. So it's free, accessible to everyone. You just have to click here to register to participate. You create your account, and once that's done, you will have the opportunity to access the algorithms by clicking right here. It's the third link. It's a short video in which I explain how to access the algorithms, the mentorships. It's my complete training that is offered to you, and also the VIP, Altcoin, and crypto when there are good opportunities on the Alts. And I will soon be publishing opportunities for you, given the zones we have reached. There are very interesting zones that I have personally been waiting for for weeks and weeks and weeks, and which were reached last night. Well, obviously, it was almost impossible to buy, but I will give you updates in the VIP rooms. So it's free, don't hesitate.
So, regarding BTC, well, apart from this big crash, obviously, what happened? So, as I told you in the intro, China is threatening, roughly speaking, to literally block all exports without its agreement. So, roughly speaking, what's happening? What's happening is that China actually wants everything that moves in the entire world, so everything that comes from China, to be able to move with its agreement. And so, in response to this, Trump does what? He imposes 100% tariffs. Well, he threatens because he won't implement them now, but he threatens on November 1st to impose 100% tariffs in response to what China wants to implement. Because tomorrow, if China starts to literally control the entire global supply, it becomes a huge problem for the United States. Literally, it's unacceptable. The United States is not Europe; they won't accept just anything. So, Trump's threat is to impose 100% tariffs, and he could have imposed much higher tariffs, but I think he really wants his threat to be taken seriously. We could have said, "Well, I'll impose 1000% tariffs to bluff," but I don't get the impression he wants to bluff. Precisely, if China is really ready to implement what it said, then Trump will impose 100% tariffs, and we know that tariffs on China are not good at all, and we also know that what China wants to implement is not good at all. So, this is what's causing a huge conflict, and we find ourselves with American indices that are collapsing. Here, we lost 4%, which is huge. Well, it might seem like nothing, but I'm telling you, 4% on American indices is huge. It's hundreds, even thousands of billions going up in smoke; it's enormous.
And so, what happened on the crypto market? Well, you might say, "Yes, but how come it's crashing so much on altcoins and not so much on Bitcoin?" Well, first of all, I'll release a video on altcoins later to go into detail, but for you to understand, during these kinds of events, large institutions sell, okay? They sell massively because it's simply a risk. The order received is to de-risk risky assets, and they do it. So, the most liquid assets, well, as we saw with Bitcoin, I mean, Bitcoin has already had days like this without necessarily having news. Sometimes it happens. But when you look at less liquid assets, especially altcoins, and personally, it's something I've been saying for a long time, but the altcoin market is not at all liquid. Very few people are trading this market right now. It's almost only VCs, market makers, and people who have been holding for a very long time. So, that's what makes liquidity scarce, if you will. Liquidity comes from exchanges, from exchange algorithms to ensure good spreads between exchanges, and so on. But very, very few people are currently trading the altcoin market. So, if you want, it's a market that is completely neglected, and with the little liquidity we have, when big players sell, it triggers massive liquidations and creates a domino effect that liquidates a lot of people. And we can see this right here, where the open interest of the market globally went from 104 billion to 73 billion in 30 minutes. This is unprecedented. It's more than COVID in terms of liquidation. The amplitude of movement on BTC is smaller. Why? Well, simply because at the time, BTC's liquidity was lower. So, that's why during the COVID crash, we saw Bitcoin lose 50%. Unfortunately, I don't have the history here on micro futures. Maybe here, yes, at Binance, no, even Binance didn't have futures yet, I think. Maybe they had a pair during COVID, I don't remember. Yes. So, at the time of COVID, we had this huge drop. So, what happened here on Bitcoin is what happened on the Alts because at the time, Bitcoin was not as liquid as it is now. You can imagine that 5 years later, with hundreds of billions in ETF inflows, etc., Bitcoin is much more liquid than it was before. And so, what happened to Bitcoin during COVID happened to altcoins, simply. And it was amplified because it's much less liquid. The altcoin market is much less liquid. And there's also this mechanism of derivatives products on which people got liquidated, simply. And when a liquidation is triggered, it pushes the price down and triggers another liquidation, and thus pushes the price down further, and another person gets liquidated, and it creates domino effects. Many people get liquidated, and often, market-making or exchange algorithms buy what's called "sell liquidity." So, for example, that's why on things like Tao, etc., we stopped right below the lows because that's roughly where the market maker will often buy back the orders from these lows. So, it's exactly here. So, this is where there are good opportunities. You can see this on many coins. Even if you take things like AV, where the entire market crashed. Well, often the market maker comes to buy below the lows. That's how it works. It's often on these sell sides that orders are programmed to buy because everyone is getting out, and it's often at that moment that the domino effect stops. And so, well, that's what triggered one of the biggest crashes we've had on the crypto market. To avoid losing a lot of money, you need to avoid being leveraged on alts, avoid being leveraged without a stop-loss because these kinds of events can happen at any time. Also, avoid being constantly all-in; always have some cash, etc. Well, we'll talk about that. Now, let's get into the chart part on BTC, and for the next video, we'll take stock of the alts.
Well, regarding BTC, we saw the stop hunt on the previous quarter's high, the Mega Trendline that blocked us again. So, it was a zone where we had to be extremely careful. We repeated it many times this week. Now, this kind of movement was unpredictable. Well, I was explaining that since it was a range, I wouldn't be surprised. As I said, I mentioned yesterday that we would come back to take the stops below 107,000. Now, honestly, I have no idea if that would happen or not, and I have no idea that there would be this conflict between China and the United States. It was unpredictable. Now, from a technical point of view, yes, there were reasons to think it was a fake move because the market didn't come to take the stops, and so on. Now, I'm telling you, it's not to be a know-it-all by saying, "I told you so, we were going to go back to 107,000." Honestly, I don't care about all the expertise I have. I don't care about saying, "Yes, I said the market would go there." Frankly, I don't care. That's not the main point. The main point is to understand the market mechanism and also to understand why Bitcoin stopped here. Because here, we are at monthly lows. That's why I drew this orange line. This is the low of July. This is the low of September. There was also the low of August, which was slightly breached, but roughly, we had three monthly lows behind us that were intact. And so, roughly, where did people have their stops? I'll get there. Where did people have their stops? Well, they had their stops below these monthly lows, and also, the big liquidation spikes from a market-making perspective are often bought back in sell-stop zones or fair value gap zones. It's not for nothing that these zones exist. Where did we stop on BTC? Exactly in the fair value gap, which are zones to rebalance to keep a lot of altcoins. We literally filled all the fair value gaps of the past few months, which are zones where we will execute orders, simply. Now, that doesn't mean we're going to fill all the fair value gaps again, but on this kind of crash, the market often purges the extremes because that's where market-making algorithms often start buying back liquidations, and that's what triggers price rebounds. Now, the question is, is the market experiencing a glitch and we'll go up very quickly, or is it really the beginning of a bearish dynamic? For me, macroeconomics will provide the answer. That is to say, if China remains firm on its positions and wants to literally control the entire global supply, the United States will not back down, will impose tariffs, and these tariffs will be significant. I remind you that when there were these tariff threats, this is roughly what happened in the American markets. It was two weeks of complete decline. This might be the beginning, this kind of movement, because we don't know if the threats will be real, if Donald Trump is bluffing or if China is bluffing, if China will really go through with what it wants to implement. And if that's the case, we could be at the beginning of a second crash, simply. And if that's the case, well, we can already speculate on zones that are likely to be worked, particularly these fair value gaps, these gaps, these breakers that marked the inversion. Well, in short, it would be an index that could return to 21,000 points, 20,500 points. It wouldn't be dramatic; it would be zones for large reloads, so to speak. Well, it's still a bit lower, but it would be, let's say, repricing zones, discount zones below 50% Fibonacci retracement. We are starting to enter discount zones. Wait, I need to put this in black, otherwise it's not visible on this theme. There. But roughly, 0.5, 0.75, these are zones we could revisit. Well, in itself, what does that change for the crypto market? Well, the crypto market, which is less liquid, if there's a continuation of the sell-off on the indices, it will continue to sell off on the crypto market because Bitcoin itself has objectives where it can go lower. I mean, generally, if again, I don't know, will this conflict go much further? I'm not talking about a military conflict; I'm talking about an economic conflict. Will China and the United States really clash in the next two, three weeks? It's not impossible. If that's the case, zones where Bitcoin often stops during this kind of major macroeconomic stress is often the first stop. Well, there wasn't any macroeconomic stress. Well, yes, there was the stress from Japan here in August; we stopped at 382, the first stop. Similarly, Trump's tariffs; we stopped at 382. Well, if history repeats itself and there's a second wave, technically, Bitcoin could return to $83,000. If there's really major market stress. This would roughly correspond to these fair value gap zones that we can re-work. So, that's roughly where the carnage could stop if we entered a carnage.
What's interesting for those who follow macro reviews is the January barometer, which is an indicator we can use to know what might happen over the year. And this barometer indicated a big crash starting from early October. Well, I don't know if we're entering it, but I'll show it to you quickly here. In short, for those who wonder what the barometer is, for those who don't follow macro reviews, the January barometer, roughly speaking, is taking the price action, so what the price did from the 1st to the 31st of January, and repeating it, projecting it over the entire year. So, here, I took what happened from January 1st to January 31st and projected the price from January 1st to December 31st, 2025, and this gives us an idea of what might happen over the year. So, roughly, the barometer said that the first quarter would be bearish, which is what happened. It said that the 2nd and 3rd quarters would be bullish, and it indicated that in the 4th quarter, there would be a carnage in October. Well, are we entering this carnage here? I don't know, but we see that potentially it could align. And this barometer indicates repricing of fair value gaps if that happens. So, that would be roughly equivalent zones. That's why I'm talking about 20,000 points. Again, I don't know if it will happen. I'm just talking about this barometer, which indicates turbulence in the 4th quarter. Well, the dollar itself indicates similar things; if it's really bottoming out, know that what's happening is bullish for the dollar. You need to know that capital will seek refuge somewhere, given that gold is very high, indices are very high, stocks are very high, theoretically it would be in the dollar. I remind you that a very bullish dollar is not very good for risk assets. Well, the dollar dropped a bit on the news, but it's likely that if the conflicts continue, there's a chance the dollar will start to push north. And so, and so, technically, we can't know if the market will rebound or not. It's impossible. What we know is that there was a quarterly high taken at the beginning of the quarter, which often marks a reversal for the market. I mentioned it yesterday; this is what happened in the second quarter. We came back to the low of the first quarter, and then we had a completely bullish second quarter. We could do the same thing, but in reverse. That is to say, well, the last quarter of the year recovers the high of the third, and that gives us a potentially bearish fourth quarter. That doesn't mean it will happen. Again, what needs to be understood now is the macro news. If tomorrow Trump and China reach an agreement, well, we can very well re-evaluate this drop, and that could make the market explode, because in terms of liquidation, it's a record what we had. The open interest, well, everyone who was leveraged on the futures market got wiped out. So now people are no longer leveraged, so if we want to go to the moon, we can literally do it. Now, if the conflict lasts, honestly, don't expect miracles; expect the market to re-test the wicks. So, for example, I'll take a random altcoin, but it's reasonable to think that in the next quarter, there's a chance that things like, I don't know, I'm saying nonsense, but that these wicks here on AV will be re-tested, and this on all alts, because that would be the market direction, simply a bearish dynamic, because the conflicts continue, and American indices are retracing. In terms of retracement on the indices, we are really starting a retracement wave; we know that we can quickly reach the monthly fair value gaps. So, we already know that going below 22,700 is very probable, or even into this monthly fair value gap between 20,300 and 21,600. Roughly, it's reasonable to think that if there's a new conflict and it resolves well, then we know that something like this could happen on the American indices because we are in a parabola, and as long as this parabola is maintained, markets will continue to rise parabolically, and therefore, big dips like we had with tariffs, etc., are opportunities. Here, this dip is just too small. We can't say this is a dip really of the magnitude of the conflict between the US and China, because it can really create a huge slowdown and also huge inflation. So, you can imagine that if inflation explodes and the economy slows down, we are in the worst possible scenario. The Fed can't even act, and therefore, this is a mega crash on the markets. You need to understand that. And this, if you want, is the first reaction. As soon as this news came out, well, we have a probability that we could enter into this kind of delirium, and that's what's happening to the market. Now, the market will try to judge whether there is a real risk of this being applied or not. If that's the case, if the conflict lasts, don't worry, it's very likely to look like this on the American indices. So, this is what needs to be understood, and it's also what the barometer indicated. So, all this to say that we might be at the beginning of a crash. The biggest part is already behind us on the Alts because, given their low liquidity, they've already had the big mess with the liquidation waves. But what we should consider is, is positioning ourselves now the opportunity of the century? Maybe not. Why? Because the opportunity of the century was at the lows of the wick. And in short, what I mean is that if the conflict extends, don't be surprised if the Alts re-test these wicks in the coming weeks, and then it will be the opportunity. It's not the case now. That's what I mean. And so, regarding BTC, well, in fact, if you want, we could very well have a Bitcoin that goes back below 100,000 without AAV going back below $80. I'm talking about AAV, but it's the same for all alts. In fact, don't think that if we have another BTC drop, the ALTS will immediately go back here. These are liquidity problems. It won't happen again. The big, the big, unless there's a huge new piece of news that shocks the market again, but probably the news is already out. This means that liquidity problems like this won't happen again. It's very unlikely to have an AV go to zero on a new wave. However, when you look at your chart on an hourly basis, and AV enters a bearish dynamic because the markets enter a bearish dynamic to re-test these wicks, that's probable. And so, the lower you buy, the lower you will buy at the wick's bottom, the better opportunities you will have. And so, to get back to BTC, well, I know I'm jumping around a bit, but that's normal given what happened here. Well, for example, Bitcoin itself, price zones we can re-work if we really enter a bearish dynamic, well, there's the monthly fair value gap at 98,000, and there's this displacement that hasn't been re-worked between 85 and 91, close to the first stop at 83,000. That's just what you need to consider: a bearish dynamic on Bitcoin could take this form in the coming weeks if the conflicts really intensify, and we could bottom out in this zone. That's what needs to be understood. And again, I repeat, it's macroeconomics that will allow us to know if the market can rebound or not. For example, on the ETF side, we can see that inflows have slowed down, and inflows are unlikely to return as long as the conflicts persist. Or even, there haven't been any outflows. I think on the ETF side, they haven't necessarily had time to sell massively. The market closed, but there's a strong chance that on Monday, it could start again via ETFs, that we'll have ETF outflows, which could create selling pressure on spot, and that this weekend or early next week, we'll re-test the bottom of the wick on Bitcoin. So, if we do that, then on the Alts, again, I talked about AV, we won't go back that low, but roughly, it could confirm the thesis of a market that will re-test its wicks a bit. Now, whether it will be very deep or not depends on whether the conflicts last and really intensify. Yes, we could go back to re-test the wicks very deeply, and that would be exceptional opportunities, obviously. Well, I don't have much more to say about BTC from a technical point of view where there are damages. Now, well, it's due to this news. There has been a big reset, big liquidations have been triggered. These were opportunities to position oneself. Now, don't rule out a market that will re-test its wicks potentially, and if we are entering a real bearish dynamic, meaning that today, for example, we form a fair value gap, the market comes back, gets rejected, and we enter a bearish dynamic because the conflicts intensify, you have very interesting zones starting from 98,000 and then from 91,000. These are roughly the price zones that will be most interesting for repositioning on BTC, with, as usual, if history repeats itself and we really have major market stress, as usual, the first stop, so here the first stop which is around $84,000-$83,000, these could be zones to re-work the last monthly support, possibly, knowing that the indices can do more or less the same thing as indicated by the barometer. The barometer indicated rather retests of these zones. Well, if that happens and the conflict intensifies, these are zones we could revisit.
Now, on the Ether side, and since Ether is less liquid than Bitcoin, well, what happens is that the drop is more violent on Ethereum, and in fact, it's your less liquid asset. For example, take Atom, which is not at all liquid. Well, Atom on Binance wicked down to 0.01, literally 0.001. So, well, if anyone was able to get executed on this wick, it's jackpot for you. It's almost impossible; very few orders were executed, but well, the market maker started buying back below the ATL, and that's what needs to be understood. And so, the less liquid it is, the more it gets blown up, simply. And so, know that what's causing it to go up now, for example, is probably the liquidation buyback mechanism. That's what needs to be understood; it's not necessarily buyers repositioning themselves; you need to understand that. And so, on Ethereum, right here, well, the drop was a bit more violent, if we take it as a percentage, probably. Yes, I don't think Bitcoin lost more than 20%, because ETH is a bit less liquid than Bitcoin, and therefore, it went to key levels like, well, it filled all these fair value gaps. There was up to this fair value gap here. So, there were two zones. There was this fair value gap, or the last low here in August. The market stopped in this fair value gap, more or less, and we worked the first stop. Now, the question is, well, do we settle below this low or not? If yes, it could start a bearish dynamic, and if the conflicts intensify, if Ethereum loses its first stop, Ethereum could come back to visit its reload zone, simply. So, we could have a confluence if we play around a bit with a sort of trendline. Although no, it wouldn't even be a backtest trendline in itself, because it would be more of a resistance line. But roughly, it could be these fair value gap zones in the reload zone if we were really to have an intensifying conflict and markets continuing to retrace. Because you can imagine that if the American indices enter a bearish dynamic because of these conflicts and we re-test zones, well, yes, 15% lower, you can imagine that Ether won't be at 5,000. Ethereum will do the same. And these zones, in comparison, are from $2,600 to about $2,900 on Ethereum. It would be to scare the market below $3,000. Now, again, as I told you, from a technical point of view, you can do all the technical analyses in the world; it's useless. What will reveal, what will indicate to us that there is a possibility of doing this or entering a bearish dynamic, is the news, how China and the United States will position themselves in this conflict. Will China go all out? Will the United States go all out? And therefore, if that's the case, yes, we will anticipate risks of recession, crisis, liquidity shock, etc., etc. And that's problematic for the markets. You can imagine, especially in a world where the United States has its debt to refinance very soon. If there's a huge conflict, I don't know where they will find investors to buy bonds. Unless the markets really think that the markets are so broken that the only thing to buy is American bonds. I don't think it's in their interest to find investors in this way because that means the markets are massively collapsing. And you should know that if the markets collapse, it doesn't benefit the United States at all. The higher the markets, the stronger and richer the United States is, the more it benefits them; it doesn't benefit them at all to have a falling American market. So, it wouldn't be one of the reasons that would force investors to buy American bonds and refinance American debt. So, this is what needs to be understood. So, this is a huge mess that could end today. And well, congratulations to those who bought this dip because you literally bought the bottom. However, if it escalates, well, then we'll have to expect more significant bearish legs. I repeat, on the alts, it probably won't go lower than what we've already seen, or it will return to the same price level or slightly lower, possibly, because these were extreme liquidity shocks, and now, especially since exchange algorithms will be loaded like never before to prevent this from happening again, simply. However, on Bitcoin and Ethereum, yes, it could go lower. An Ether returning below $3,000 could happen if the conflict continues to intensify. And a Bitcoin returning below $98,000, similarly, could happen, but I repeat, it won't impact the altcoin market much lower than it has been. For example, even a Tao that dropped to $140. Here, similarly, if Bitcoin goes to $100,000, I doubt Tao will be below $140. We will re-test the wicks, very, very probably re-test a part of these wicks. So, this is what needs to be understood.
Okay. Now, if there's really new news, a new Black Swan, then yes, it can create a liquidity shock, it can take us lower, but in my opinion, it's unlikely. It's unlikely in the current state, maybe in several weeks, several months, but I think the biggest part has already been priced in. Well, not priced in, the biggest part has been priced in on the alts because there was a huge liquidity shock, but on American indices and others, it might just be the beginning of the repricing. That's what needs to be understood. So, that's why I would be more inclined to say that we will re-visit these wicks; it wouldn't surprise me at all, given what has been done graphically on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Now, this is just my opinion. That's why I think limit buy orders near the wicks' lows can be interesting if it continues to, well, maybe not Tao, but other assets, no matter. Because Tao was very strong before this dip, so maybe it's one of the assets that will recover best, it's not impossible. But what I'm getting at is that if you have cash, placing limit buy orders near these wicks can be interesting. If, in the coming days, in the coming week, it intensifies. Perhaps zones that will be revisited will be interesting to buy for those who want to position themselves long-term, and again, on good projects, not projects that have been dead for months and months, even years, that do nothing anymore. I'll stop here for today. We'll meet later for the analysis on the Altcoin market. I'll talk about altcoin dominance indices, Bitcoin dominance, the impact on USDT dominance, probably. Anyway, we'll do a big analysis. See you later. I remind those who want to learn, join my school, first link in the pinned comment. It's the only paid subscription I offer; it's right here. Join my trading school. Prices start at only €49. It's without commitment. You have even cheaper offers: 36 and 12 months. You will have access to the school's training, which is the most complete, 19 hours of video lessons, 8 modules, and you will also have access to the private briefs I do with students every day from Monday to Friday. I answer their questions, I analyze their altcoins, I talk about my market exposure, etc. We talk about risk management. We emphasized risk management in the school, on these highs here. And you will also have access to the private Discord among students to ask all your questions, etc., etc. You also have testimonials from members here to give you an idea. I'll stop here. See you later for the Altcoin analysis. See you soon. Bye bye.