Transcription
We are a week away from training camp opening, which means that we are officially entering redraft season. And today we're going to break down 12 rookies that your league mates are overlooking in fantasy football. Essentially, this video is going to be catered towards rookies that we expect to get out to hot starts in their NFL career. There's going to be some dynasty implications here as well, but generally this is going to be done from a redraft frame of mind. Guys that we think have some immediate opportunity on the table. Danny, before we get into it, I just wanted to quickly highlight some of the best rookie picks in redraft since 2017. The best rookie pick ever in that span, Alvin Kamara, 26.4% win rate. James Robinson, basically undrafted, 22.7% win rate. Buck Irving a couple of years ago. JT as a rookie. Kareem Hunt his rookie season. Puka Nacua his rookie season. Sam LaPorta his rookie season. That this list doesn't even include. These are the top 30 win rates overall, seven of them being rookies. This list doesn't even include Jefferson's rookie season, Chase's rookie season, Bowers rookie season, Achane's rookie season, BTJ, Ladd, Saquon, Chubb, and Miles Sanders to name a few more. So, if we kind of just think about the framework for some of these rookies, a lot of the time it is opportunity-based. There's opportunity in front of you to start if you're a receiver, to get touches if you're a running back, to be a starting quarterback, to be a starting tight end. So, I do want to just frame that as our first piece of context of the rookies that we're going to talk about today is that yeah, you're going to need some opportunity in front of you.
100% and ultimately there's a different caliber of hit because we talk about just the overall win rate, but when we're talking about some of these deeper names that are going in the 120s and beyond, from a best ball perspective, it's can they hit my lineup and how many times they can they can hit my lineup. And I feel like that's about the expectation I have for a lot of these guys. Do I think they're going to be, you know, top 30 wide receivers or top 20 running backs? Probably not necessarily, but can they be guys that down the stretch give you four or five usable weeks? I do think that's in the range of outcomes.
Yeah, let's start it off with a guy that Um, how about I talk about him because you talk about him a lot. Um, Danny is the highest on the site on Carnell Tate, probably the highest on the planet on Carnell Tate. Um, he's a very good prospect, you know, in the prospect model, if I go over to it, in the wide receiver prospect model, he's the 10th best wide receiver prospect since the year 2016. So, we're talking about a very high-end wide receiver prospect. Now goes to a situation, based on what I just said, where he has a lot of opportunity in front of him. The Tennessee Titans have Rondale Robinson, who's a good target on 140 targets last season. Calvin Ridley, who's appears to be kind of beyond his his best playing days at this point in time. And if you believe in Carnell Tate the prospect, the way that Danny believes in Carnell Tate, many others do, you like the opportunity, you like the ability to get on the field right away, especially the archetype of player he is. He's a route runner. He's a type of player that can get on the field and probably produce right away. Upside with Brian Daboll, Cam Akers ascending as a player. You also have the potential for this offense to be a lot more pass-heavy, given that the offensive line has developed a little bit. And, you know, kind of have you have as you have listed here, Brian Daboll is a pass-heavy coach and up-tempo coach as well.
Exactly. I mean, I couldn't have said it better myself. I am clearly the highest on the site. I'd be willing to take this guy at the end of the fourth round if I had to. Uh, the fact that his ADP isn't in the top 40 when we saw Tutu Atwell and Rondale Robinson fall inside the top 40, we saw a lot of comparative rookies fall inside the top 40 in the past. To me, it's just an elite blend, like you said, opportunity, talent, and potential ascending offense.
Yeah, Danny has him at 45 in his rankings. I have him at 61 in mine, which is not really, you know, I am lower than the expert consensus site ranking on him. But, generally, I think this is a guy that in the mid rounds, in the fifth, in the sixth, uh, round, you should be taking shots on because of what the upside case is. I think you outlined it perfectly there. Tutu Atwell and Rondale Robinson was a 4-5 turn pick last year. And there is really no difference between Carnell Tate and Tutu Atwell and Rondale Robinson the prospect. When you look at their prospect model grades, they're very similar. Tutu Atwell and Rondale Robinson, uh, an 89.68%, which is number five of time since 2016. Carnell Tate 85.79% both wide receiver one upside prospects both comparable to the likes of Drake London Romo Dunze A.J. Brown, you know, Devonte Smith, Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson, those types of players. So, um I think when you look at Carnell Tate, you just basically need to rely on either Cam Ward or Brian Daboll making the offense an ascending offense, making the offense a a you know, pass-friendly offense and Carnell Tate can do the rest if you think he's the prospect that, you know, he can be. And the smash-level potential for Carnell Tate is that of a, you know, super high win rate player. Like he could be, you know, the the 2021 Ja'Marr Chase, the 2020 uh Justin Jefferson, the 2024 Ladd McConkey or Brian Thomas Jr.
Yeah, and it all stems back on archetypal drafting. Like in your first four rounds, if you go with, you know, safer veteran options, like this is the type of rookie where if he's your wide receiver two or your wide receiver three, he can absolutely be a legitimate 15-plus, 16-plus point-per-game player. Maybe not out of the gates, but absolutely down the stretch. And to be honest, I also just think the slow start nature that people have for Tate, you look at the target competition. Outside of Wan'Dale Robinson, unless you're a really big gunner help guy, why can't he profile into 140, 150 targets?
Yeah, my concern with him being that he's an X receiver archetype, I do want to see him moved around the formation, but to the Brian Daboll of it all, you know, Malik Nabers had a monster season his rookie season. So, as long as Carnell Tate can come out and be the number one right away the way that Malik was in his train first training camp. Like in training camp of July of his rookie season, we knew. Everyone was like, Malik's Malik's a a stud. He's going to be an absolute baller.
So, we've already heard glowing reports out of camp like thus far like the rookie mini camp, but who knows? If training camp happens and we are hearing those reports, like this is also just a player from a CLV perspective. If you can get him close to pick 60 right now, maybe by the time the season opens, his ADP is closer to 51, 52.
Yeah, absolutely. And and we would be remiss if we didn't mention that um Underdog's a big part of this video because, you know, we're trying to get shares of these players right away. And Underdog, you can draft teams right now. You don't have to be waiting in for until your home league drafts open up. And of course, we also have a best ball overlay on the site that you guys can use, get access to. And of course, anybody who uses our promo code FFE can play $5 and get $5 in bonus entries right now. And they can get both our dynasty and redraft draft guides for free when they make their first play on the site. All you have to do is sign up with our promo code, and within 24 hours after you enter your first draft, you will be emailed our draft guide there. So, let's talk about Jahmyr Gibbs who was the second running back off the board from his own team and also in general in the NFL draft. Jahmyr Gibbs heads to the Seattle Seahawks. Right now, the expert average for us on the site is 54. So, we're talking about a guy kind of around that 4-5 turn area of draft. On Underdog, he's going off the board at 63.2. And in home league ADP right now, he's going what much lower than that. We'll see how much that corrects itself by the time we get to actual drafts, but let's talk about Jahmyr Gibbs here.
Yeah, it's very simple with Jahmyr Gibbs. And people are going to point to well, Jordan Howard is working ahead of him in training camp. And Jordan Howard was on the team last year. Jordan Howard is not stopping Jahmyr Gibbs. And if he does, we learned a lot from a dynasty perspective. There's a reason why they drafted him in the first round. There's a reason why we were higher on the film of Jahmyr Gibbs. If Jahmyr Gibbs truthfully cannot beat out Jordan Howard, cannot beat out Emmanuel Wilson cuz oh by the way, Adam Schefter literally confirmed the team doesn't expect Zach Charbonnet to be a big time contributor till at least halfway point of the season. Jahmyr Gibbs, if he's getting the opportunity to be a legitimate at least 1A back, 17 plus opportunity opportunity per game type of back in the early onset of the year, man, he could just wrestle this job straight up.
Yeah, and we have a new feature on the site which is cross-platform ADP for every platform that we support. So, you can see where he's going on Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo, Underdog, CBS, and FFPC. Sleeper is just on Mars with the 132 overall ADP. Generally you can see that he's somewhere in the like sixth round of most of the other you know redraft platforms including Underdog which is obviously the sharpest ADP out there because it's paid drafts going on all the time. So I think yeah like the George Holani the Emmanuel Wilson Zach Charbonnet concerns aside Jadarian Price if we just look at what I said at the beginning of the video who profiles to be on the field right away getting opportunity it's Jadarian Price. George Holani is a minor obstacle for him to overcome probably by second week of training camp.
Yeah, like George Holani I'm sorry did you care about him last year? Did you pick him up off waivers last year? Did you have any expectations for him last year? The team told you what they wanted to do. They didn't need to take a running back in the first round. They said hey you know what? Walker's gone we need a starting running back. That was their thought process. So if you think George Holani's going to work ahead of him I don't even know what to tell you. Just don't draft fantasy football.
Yeah, and again, I I think sometimes fantasy football isn't hard too like yes Jadarian Price the prospect if I look at his prospect tab like he obviously had a lot of holes and warts in his prospect profile but he had a good reason for that. It was Jeremiah Love being a stud that he was. The film on on Jadarian Price is quite solid and again you got a first round running back playing for the Super Bowl champions where Clint Kubiak the issue that people had with him was that he wasn't using Kenneth Walker as a full fledged bell cow and all that kind of stuff. One Charbonnet is not going to be back on the field maybe all season based on what my conversation was with Dr. Ferretti and two Clint Kubiak used Kenneth Walker in that facet because that's kind of Kenneth Walker's Achilles heel. He is a little bit more of a boomer bust runner. He has some holes to his game. Jadarian Price was a lot more refined coming out of of Notre Dame and I do think he can handle 18 to 20 touches. Yes George Holani and whoever else is going to mix in but I think by the end of the season we could be talking about a league winner for sure.
I'm so glad you mentioned that because literally one of the best pros when we both watched Jadarian Price's film was his decisiveness and his overall vision of the field. He was one of the most intangibly smart running backs in terms of his just raw instincts at the position and you wouldn't typically see that for a guy that was working behind Jeremiah Love, but I'm telling you, man, in those instances where he got the extra burn, where he was relied upon in tough down and distance situations, you know, the third and threes, those crucial plays, Jadarian Price was never missing.
Yeah, I'm actually really impressed. Like it's it's just hard to see a guy that doesn't have a whole lot of experience um being as like you said refined from a in between the tackle standpoint as he was. And I actually can pull this up cuz it's from our draft guide, which of course um we did earlier in the off season from a dynasty angle, but you can see that the strengths and the the grades that you and I had for him on instincts and vision were were perfect. Like he
Yes.
he was so like he looked like Nick Chubb out there, man. Like he knew exactly where he was going anytime the ball was snapped, anytime he got the opportunity to get the touches there. So again, it's it's difficult because he didn't always have the the full workload, but it is intriguing that Jadarian Price is going to have a full workload or at least have a chance of a full workload in the NFL right away.
And just look at those two comps that we had. Both guys that were, yeah, I mean, Sony Michel was a late first rounder, JK Dobbins more of like an early to mid second rounder, but both of them just showed flashes as pure runners and both completely you know, beat where their ADPs were. Jadarian Price, I would argue, has more of an opportunity right off the get-go because he didn't have to compete with Mark Ingram for touches. He didn't have to compete with the full array of backs that you know, at the time, what, the 2017 Patriots, they were relying upon three or four guys in that backfield. Obviously, Michel established himself as that pure between the tackles guy, but I would argue the competition of George Kittle, Emmanuel Wilson, and you know, an ACL-less Zach Charbonnet is much less than those guys had to fend off.
Yeah, no, absolutely. So let's uh keep it rolling here. We have uh the next guy on the list, which is Mekhi Lemon, who I believe is one of my like two or three highest drafted receivers at this point in time. And a large part of it is like what I think of the Philadelphia Eagles, and a a larger part of it is what I think of Makai Lemon. Because as you could see here, number eight in the prospect model, he was my wide receiver one pre-draft. You can see on the player card there. The comp being, you know, your Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown archetype, who if you think about like how Puka Nacua hit his rookie season, it was being like today's NFL PPR wide receiver, which is exactly the type of player Makai Lemon is. And from a uh projection standpoint, my thought process on the Philadelphia Eagles is Shawn Mannion is coming in, Kevin Petullo is gone, and Jalen Hurts, when asked to throw over the middle of the field, which is where Makai Lemon's primarily going to operate, I saw Ron and Ryan Heath bring this up on the show that they did together, he's actually been very efficient in that regard. It's just that he wasn't asked to do that very much. And I think that people are going to overthink Makai Lemon the way that they did Garrett Wilson and Justin Jefferson and those type of guys their rookie seasons, which is, "Oh, Philadelphia Eagles run heavy offense, don't really care." The reason Jefferson and Garrett Wilson hit his rookies is because they were baller prospects. And Makai Lemon, quite literally, is exactly comparable to both players. Like, he is 86.44% in the prospect model. That is higher than Justin Jefferson. That is higher than Garrett Wilson. He is the same archetype of player as Garrett, especially, who's going to be more of your Z receiver, operating sometimes in the slot. And DeVonta Smith is also, you know, in a role that he's not familiar with, yet, being the number one receiver.
Well, it's funny, too. You go back to that prospect chart, because literally the guy he's ahead of directly is his teammate. DeVonta Smith at 11, Makai Lemon at eight. So, realistically, even though we are optimistic on DeVonta Smith, we do think he was, let's just say, one of the most overqualified number two wide receivers we've seen in the past. Like, I do think he could be a number one wide receiver. But, when you're just taking those raw prospect profiles of both of them, like, yeah, DeVonta Smith won his Heisman, but I also think the age adjustment age adjusted projection of Makai Lemon was more impressive. So, in terms of just pure raw prospect profiles, if you put both of them in the same draft class, you'd probably say it's about a 50/50 one or the other ends up being the one there.
Yeah, Lemon would have been the analytics guy and Smith would have been the film guy reasonably if they were in the same class.
Like is it all that different in my opinion to what Chris Olave versus Jordan Tyson's dealing with right now and yet Tyson goes so much earlier than where Makai Lemon currently is at in ADP?
Yeah, and I mean, you wouldn't draft Makai Lemon on the same team as Devonta Smith potentially. Like you you take your investment, take your swing on one of the guys. You're if you take Makai Lemon maybe you're inherently betting that Devonta Smith can't be a full-fledged number one or something like that. Or maybe you're betting on the Eagles offense in general and it not mattering.
Yeah. Again, I have more question marks with the Eagles offense, but the nuts and bolts are we still don't know if Devonta Smith can be a 30%, you know, 28% alpha true and number one target player. And Makai Lemon has the prospect profile to indicate that he can grow into that. What if by week eight, week nine, it's a 23 to 25 split and actually ends up favoring Makai? Like who knows?
Yeah, absolutely. So, let's talk about these Browns receivers because both of them and again very similar to what I just said with with Makai Lemon. You maybe don't want to draft both Denzel Boston and Casey Conceicao on the same team because I do think that they probably hit in spite of the other missing. But the Cleveland Browns had a 20-year-old tight end from Bowling Green lead them in targets last year and and in yards and whatnot. So, the redraft projection, I guess you'll have to sell me on this offense giving a lot of, you know, point production to one of these guys, but I think it's the same thing I said at the beginning of the video where if one of these guys is a dude, if they're a a top-tier receiver, a you know, top 30 offensive rookie of the year type candidate player, they can come out right away and be an alpha on this team because there is really nobody that is going to scare you if they're, you know, Casey Conceicao's comp coming out of school for us was, you know, kind of like a Chris Olave, Emmanuel Sanders. Denzel Boston on the higher end can be more of like a Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins. Whichever one you kind of wanted to tether yourself to, Conceicao more of like a top 100 or so pick, a top 120 pick, and then Boston more of a mid-round 13th, 14th rounder.
Yeah, the way I look at it is in terms of like prospect profiles, kind of think of like Zay Flowers and Michael Pittman the prospects both got drafted to Cleveland. And their biggest competition for wide receiver targets is a guy that kind of feels like he's falling out of favor with the team. Cuz Jerry Jeudy obviously 2 years ago had a big stretch, but there's a reason why this new regime went out and made two of their first three picks offensive weapons. They want to increase the passing validity of the validity of this team. They were the what? Single worst passing offense in the entire league last year. You bring in Todd Monken, you bring in two established receivers that were, you know, very high-end prospects in my opinion. And ultimately, if they're able to beat out Jeudy for snaps, again, it might be a process. It might be, well, Jeudy, he's the veteran. Weeks 1, 2, 3, he's a thorn in their side. By week four, I do think there's the opportunity for both these guys to establish themselves. Denzel Boston as, you know, the big slot X archetype. Obviously, with Casey Conceicao being that Z, you know, more vertical slot archetype. I do think just the heuristic of trusting talented rookies with volume opportunities picked outside of the top 115, those just tend to be some of the better clicks on the board.
Yeah, and you could obviously talk yourself into Amari Cooper for the same reason as well, just because, you know, you get drafted in the first round, both of these guys drafted in the top 40 picks. Conceicao in the first round, Boston at the early second round portion. They generally are just, you know, when you're especially in redraft, like from best ball, you can argue, oh, what if there's zeros, what if they don't hit your lineup very often, etc. From a redraft standpoint, Denzel Boston going around 13 or whatever, like what if he sucks, you drop him and you pick up somebody on the waiver wire. Like there's absolutely no, um, you know, issues if he if he doesn't work out. Like you just Yeah, you wasted a 13th round pick, whatever.
Exactly. And I I think you are right. It's unlikely that both of them just completely smashed their ADP like
Unless you think Achane is going to be really good. That would be the only way or Watson is going to be really good.
Like maybe the only scenario too would be like fantasy missed time. It's just such a concentrated target share between the top two options. Like that would probably be the out, but even if it's just one of them emerging, like the one that emerges is immediately going to be a top two weapon in their offense. Like that being picked out of the top 110 in ADP alone is worth the click.
Yeah, and what if Todd Monken schemes this thing? Like Todd Todd Monken people are going, "Okay, well, he's like the Ravens offensive coordinator last year. They weren't very pass-heavy." It's like you remember him in Tampa Bay, right? Like they just threw the ball like crazy. Like it's very possible without Myles Garrett now that they take a step back on defense and they actually have to throw the ball quite a bit.
Well, the last time he was Cleve- he was in Cleveland. Wasn't that Baker's best season as a pro?
I think that was Baker's uh Freddie Kitchens year, wasn't it?
Oh, wasn't it? Okay. I I just know, um, he was there for one year with Baker Mayfield and uh I'm pretty sure that was one of his better years.
2019. Yeah, it was the Freddie Kitchens year.
Gotcha. Okay.
Their Tampa Bay's 2018 season though was the Ryan Fitzmagic start to the season and, you know, they were throwing the ball like crazy and playing very well. So, again, the challenging part for Casey Conceicao and Denzel Boston is elevating beyond the offense, but conversely, if they're both good players and Fant's a good player and Judkins is a good player, the offense could just be better than people think.
Yeah, like if I'm searching at that year Okay, no, it was it was a down year efficiency-wise, but we still saw over 500 pass attempts despite what I would describe as a less than ideal offensive situation that year.
Yeah, it was it was kind of a train wreck in terms of what happened that season cuz the the Browns were all drafted to be very highly decorated fantasy assets, the Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry year.
Yeah, and even still, we saw obviously those guys were more proven at the time, but two receivers have over 130 targets on that team.
Yeah, that's a good point. Yeah, and again, when you look at the consensus ADP of, you know, Sleeper and ESPN and whatnot, like again, Sleeper and Yahoo and these like these platforms, you're going to get Casey Concepsion for free, and he's, you know, a lot higher of a pick on Underdog than he is on those platforms. And Denzel Boston, again, this is a late round dart throw. Like you're not even, you worried if you miss on this pick or whatever the case is. So, um let's keep it rolling here. We have Kenyon Seddik, who is a player that I think I've drafted on like 20% of my best ball teams so far. Part of it, I will say, is the inherent nature of Best Ball Mania, where
Three tight end builds. You got one with upside in the middle of it.
Exactly. And not to mention, too, back-weighted production is really important. Week 17 is all that matters reasonably for all the money. So, if Kenyon Seddik is Koston Loveland from last year, that's an obvious smash pick at pick 161. However, from a redraft standpoint, I would say he's probably a little bit worse of a pick just because in redraft, if you draft Kenyon Seddik, is he going to be on the waiver wire by week three? I think it's possible. Because if he's not getting the snaps right away, if Mason Taylor's a bigger threat to his overall opportunity, then maybe people are dropping and cutting bait with him. That being said, though, when you and I watched and graded Kenyon Seddik, we saw like a legitimate kind of David Njoku, Delanie Walker like player.
All-pro upside.
And it yeah, literally all-pro type of upside. Like human beings that, you know, 6'5", 245 lbs just simply don't move like this. There's a reason that nobody's run in the 4-3 since, you know, Vernon Davis or whatever it was, the last person to run that fast at that size. So, sometimes Kenyon Seddik is just, you know, the good lord only makes a certain amount of freaks like this every every once in a while.
Yeah, and even though there's a ton of players that could work into the target hierarchy, like obviously they pick Omar Cooper Jr. as well in the first round. They have a guy named AD Mitchell who's getting buzz out of camp. Breece Hall, we know he's going to command targets out of the backfield. Outside of just saying, "Okay, Garrett Wilson's the true one in this offense." I think any one of those guys can emerge as the two. And if it is Kanyon Rourke and you're getting a top-20 drafted capital tight end with that athleticism profile, with like you said, the preface being the elite late-season upside. Like, what if he's a seven target per game in the money weeks?
Yeah, exactly. And I think Kanyon Rourke the prospect profile, like Loveland obviously uh depressed by the fact he didn't test, but we're talking about, you know, Rourke with a little bit more production and not multiple, you know, NFL drafted tight ends around him on his depth chart in college. Not to mention the receivers that they had in Tez Johnson and those types of guys. Uh De'Corian Moore, the the talented freshman. Like, Jamari Johnson's a top-three tight end in next year's class. Terrance Ferguson is a second-round pick in 2024. Like, Kanyon Rourke being able to produce and have a solid production profile is credit to him that a lot of people don't give him credit for because they want to look at the bottom line of what his production actually was. And again, when you look at the home league type of site ADP of Kanyon Rourke, this guy is just freaking buried, man. Like, we're talking pick 143 on ESPN, 149 on Yahoo. Like, you're you're not spending a consequential pick on him at all. He's actually even lower on Underdog. I guess the threat of the zero is maybe why people are not taking him as much on Underdog, but I don't know. For me, it's just like you said, when you're building a three-tight-end build on Underdog or even a two-tight-end build, you draft a Colson Loveland, you take a Kanyon Rourke, you draft a Jake Ferguson, Kanyon Rourke, and Cade Otton three stack and you have your tight end bases covered, upside and floor. In redraft, again, we always talk about this, too. Let's say I took Tyler Warren or I took uh Sam LaPorta or Kyle Pitts or Gerald Everett as my main tight end. Tagging on a Kanyon Rourke for either a trade chip later, yes, see what happens, see what he turns into, late-round upside stash. Like, those those are worthwhile swings in redraft, best ball, and any other format alike.
I mean, I basically played it like that in the Flock League last year. Like, if if Loveland was more productive earlier in the season, I probably could have sold high on Tucker Kraft if Loveland instead of week eight when he became like really, really relevant down the stretch, instead if that was like week five, I probably would have had a sell window to sell Tucker Kraft as a tight end three in value. Like that's just how it is. Obviously, it didn't really work out well in terms of timing cuz Kraft got hurt as Loveland kind of identified as that big time, you know, spike down the stretch guy, but if it happened where like there was a little bit more overlap and I had three weeks to make a deal, I bet you I would have tacked on Tucker Kraft plus a receiver, went for an upgrade at receiver. Tucker Kraft plus a running back, went for an upgrade at running back. Like you're right. If you can hold a guy like Kenyon Drake for through the first four weeks because again week five at that point if he hasn't established himself, of course you can just cycle down the stretch. Maybe at that point Jonah Coleman's popping up and you drop Drake for Coleman. But giving yourself a kind of a threshold, kind of a timeline to see if he does get those snaps opens you up to potential opportunities to make consolidation deals.
Yeah, and speaking of Jonah Coleman, um I believe my second highest drafted running back, I saw a rookie running back from the one that we're going to talk about at number nine here. Um Jonah Coleman is just an arbitrage bet against RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins realistically. Like I think everybody should have a stance on the Broncos backfield. It's too valuable of a backfield to not have a stance on because Sean Payton's running back one or starting running back or whole backfield combined has been one of the more productive for fantasy football over the last decade, decade and a half. So if Jonah Coleman is the prospect that you and I thought he was, which made him a top two running back for both of us in the class, comp to Javonte Williams, Doug Martin, Mark Ingram, those types of players he can win this backfield behind a, let's call it uh weakened talent of RJ Harvey. We don't really believe in the player. We thought he was over drafted. We didn't really love the, you know, rush yards over expected type of metrics last season. And then JK Dobbins who's good when healthy, but is always dealing with something.
Yeah, um and people are going to throw this around. We actually had a video last year. We'll we'll talk about it if we're doing it again, but like this year's version of like somebody that's popped in the past. Everybody's going to throw around, "Who's this year's Cam Akers?" And I mean, it's low-hanging fruit, obviously, given the size profile, given the overall three-down profile in terms of production, given that they both went in the fourth round. Like, there are a lot of commonalities between what Cam Akers was last year versus what Jonathon Brooks is this year. But also, just look at the team. They need a true three-down skillset with size, with toughness to play in that Mark Ingram role. And I do think Sean Payton sees Jonathon Brooks in training camp, and he's, you know, looking thick and breaking tackles, and you know, plugging guys up in pass pro. Like, you don't think Sean Payton's going to trust this guy, especially looking last year how volatile JK Dobbins' health was, how bad R.J. Harvey was between the tackles? R.J. Harvey's got a really nice receiving skillset. He can't stick up and protect Bo Nix in the passing game. If he can't make the right decisions between the tackles, Jonathon Brooks will eat into his playing time.
Yeah, also, again, Jonathon Brooks' like ADP of these like platforms being like I don't know what the hell ESPN's doing at 867.
867.
I mean, ESPN just might not have updates with all these rookies, but even like the 170s, the 150s, the 170s, like 160s, 152, whatever. Again, in redraft, what's the what's the penalty, Danny, for me missing on my 13th round redraft pick? Exactly, zero. None. Especially in an ESPN league where it's a start seven, one flex, two running back, two wide receiver, half PPR, full PPR league. Like, this is the backfield that you take the swing on. This is if it works out this year's Cam Akers, like you made reference to, because you can get a guy who has a three-down skillset, who can play on, you know, third down, catch the football, play in pass protection, as we've seen. And again, from an underdog standpoint, this is also an excellent CLV play as you kind of made reference to with K'Shawn Tate. 155.780P, if we hear a lot of Ke'Shawn Tate buzz in training camp, that number's going to be 115, 120, guaranteed. So, for me, I'm just betting on the ability of the player that I saw four years at Arizona State and Washington combined because he was a very, very undervalued prospect and only fell to the fourth round because he doesn't have elite speed.
Dude, before the NFL draft, cuz obviously once he fell to the fourth round, this is why he fell so far cuz people are like, "Oh, well, RJ Harvey was okay and JK Dobbins was good before he got hurt." Before the NFL draft, he was being drafted between pick 90 to 100 on the big board. So, like the market is willing to put him up there. I just feel like the ambiguity in the market not being able to predict how the training camp's going to unfold, how that depth chart's going to end up looking, it's what's depressing his cost right now. But, when I see JK Dobbins and I see RJ Harvey, I don't really see an obstacle towards Ke'Shawn Tate becoming the RB1 if he's the prospect we both thought he was.
Yeah, exactly. That's the bet is that he's a a good enough prospect to beat out JK Dobbins even when healthy or when injured and RJ Harvey, especially on early down stuff. And I I do think with Dobbins being on a one-year deal, with Harvey being kind of they've already shown what they think of Harvey by drafting Ke'Shawn Tate and bringing back Dobbins. So, I think that the the gates are open for Ke'Shawn Tate to take the job if he can and I do think he can. Um, speaking of the gates being open to take a job, you got Ke'Shawn Allen, very similar thesis, we just don't really believe in the other backs in the backfield. Now, Rashaad White to me is the best back in this backfield, but I don't know that for sure. I don't know with certainty that he's going to be the best running back in this backfield. This is again very similar to what I just said about Denver, you should have a a stance on this backfield, especially in a best ball draft, leaving with one Washington Commanders running back might be a very viable strategy, whether it's Bill or Rashaad White or Ke'Shawn or even Jerome Ford in the 18th round. Like I think that somebody from this backfield is going to have relevant weeks throughout the season and Keytronn Allen, you know, had more total yards and touchdowns than Jacquory Crosskey Merritt had in a 6-year college career in the last two seasons while sharing a backfield with Nick Singleton.
Why can't he just take on the Chris Rodriguez role down down the stretch that we saw? Like obviously, I believe in Rashad White, too, especially as a receiving back, you know, a third down back, obviously the trustworthy pass pro. Maybe he can be a 4 to 6 target per game player. I am drafting a good bit of Rashad White, but I don't believe in Bill Crosskey Merritt. And when I see Keytronn Allen, very similar to what I think between R.J. Harvey and Jona Coleman, I would rather just take the, you know, coaches pet, the guy that can be trusted on all three down situations, the guy that's tough between the tackles. And who knows, man? This like you said with this offense, it could be one of the most valuable in the league. What if David Blough is just like the next Clint Kubiak?
Yeah, he could be. And especially, I think just from a stylistic standpoint, when you have quarterback the way that you know, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry operate, having a hammer with a mobile quarterback does often work very well. And Keytronn Allen is is the best hammer in this backfield. Like he's the most physical, the toughest, like he can he can definitely be that guy.
Alfred Morris.
Yeah. Yeah, exactly. You got your Alfred More Alfred Morris was a what was he a fifth-round pick?
Sixth round what uh Florida International? Florida Atlantic? One of them?
Also like Keytronn again, if he went to the combine and ran a 4-3 or something, he would have been a second or third round pick with the season that he had this year.
For sure. He probably wouldn't have run that fast, but still
No, but like let's say he did and that he squashed that concern. That was one of his only concerns was speed.
Yeah, you're not wrong there. I'm 17th, 18th round. I'm not taking Bill, obviously I'm taking Rashad White as well, but if I don't get Rashad White in the draft, I would much rather just wait five, six, seven rounds after where Bill's going and take the upside shot that is K Tron Allen.
Yeah, uh this next guy that we're going to talk about, I don't really agree with you. If I'm being completely honest, I I don't really like this guy from a redraft standpoint. I think he's more of a dynasty play.
Um yeah, best ball. I think let's talk about Jalen Bernard because I will say one thing in favor of Jalen Bernard is the type of player he is is pro ready. I do think he can be on the field right away because he beats zone coverage at a high level. He can do things that NFL receivers do.
Yeah, and when I look at Jalen Bernard, given his cost, I mean, what is that ADP? Uh let me just take a look. Um 185.5, you're taking him in the 16th, 17th round. And the way I look at it is I do trust the offensive system, especially in in regards to what we've known from the Steelers in the past. Obviously, Mike Tomlin, defensive identity, Arthur Smith, football terrorism last year. I kind of made that case actually when I was talking with Ron and Sammy these last couple of videos. But with Mike McCarthy, you do have a proven track record of a coach that has had successful offenses. Obviously, we're all going to have our opinions on Mike McCarthy, but we can't argue with the data here. 13 of 18 years with a 60 plus percent team pass rate, four to five years in his Dallas tenure. And on top of that, nine out of 13 seasons being a top 10 scoring offense with both Green Bay and with Dallas. I'm not going to sit here and say, "Oh, well, that means the Steelers are going to be a top 10 scoring offense." That's not the argument I'm making. I'm more so just pointing on the fact that Mike McCarthy is modern in terms of his pass rate, is a coach that wants to throw the football, and at the very minimum provides a floor in terms of what this Steelers offense could be this upcoming year. On top of that, historically very, very strong in terms of his 11 personnel reliance. And when I look at this overall receiving depth chart, DK Metcalf, he's going to be your vertical X wide receiver. I do think Pittman's going to be that intermediate, you know, s- seven to nine target per game type of player. But it is 11 personnel. Jalen Bernard has the opportunity to beat out a Roman Wilson, to beat out the other people on the depth chart, and earn immediate playing time. So just from that fact alone, having a guy that's not going to get a zero in terms of snaps in best ball at that cost is already going to be a plus for me. On top of that
a managed redraft league he would need a Pittman or Metcalf injury to be really, you know, a huge waiver add kind of player.
And that's what I was going to get into.
guys are good established receivers already to the point that Jeremy Bernard is not going to outproduce them when healthy. That's why I like him more for dynasty than I do for redraft cuz Pittman they just traded for him. Metcalf's on a contract that'll be expiring soon. Um, but yeah, best ball I think he's definitely uh more appealing in that format.
Well, that's what I was going to get into next cuz even though Michael Pittman's the more proven option and I do like Michael Pittman over Jeremy Bernard. That's not the argument I'm making. At the same time it was very cheap for them to acquire Pittman. Pittman has been a player that has been hurt in the past these last couple years has played through injuries. Is it all that possible to say that a second round rookie pick can't beat him out by week eight or week nine? Like I don't think that's out of the range of outcomes here and the fact that you're getting him at 185 with that just solely priced in he should be 20 picks higher in ADP.
Yeah, I mean, in consensus ADP he's actually sandwiched between two other rookies in Zachariah Branch and Chris Bell.
Why?
I I frankly I think that the the on-the-field immediate opportunity is better for those two guys. Like assuming Chris Bell is healthy, he has an opportunity to start.
You think so, eh?
Chris Bell was dealing with a torn ACL and I thought he was a prospect that needed time to develop.
There's no Metcalf or Pittman on his team though.
Sure, but I think the opportunity to be an immediate wide receiver three in an offense that's going to probably run 60 plus percent of their snaps out of 11 personnel has its own value.
Yeah, it does. You're right. And Zachariah Branch assuming he can take like Rondale Moore is the reason I hold out hope for Branch sometimes is because Branch if he can put it all together in one NFL training camp the way Bucky Irving did, he could actually be a really good player. He could be Zay Flowers right away. It's just that he needs to learn a lot about route running to do that.
So, let me ask you this question. If I had to ask you who's going to be throwing more pass attempts next year the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Atlanta Falcons, who would you say?
Oh, the Pittsburgh Steelers by far, but there is Mecole Hardman on the Atlanta Falcons. There's one There's a Pitts in Atlanta. Pitts.
Yeah, there's a Pitts in Atlanta, which I would argue is way more target competition.
Yeah, again, I totally fair. Totally fair. Um but yeah, Jeremy I think he's underrated. Yeah, the player that we have here is like if he's a Romeo Doubs like hit as a rookie, that's a very profitable 16th or 15th round best ball pick where he's currently going. So, um let's pivot into uh the running back position. I may mention to this player being my highest drafted running back so far and that's Nicholas Singleton. Um it looks kind of sub-optimal at the moment that he's pick 209 in ADP and I drafted a lot of him at pick 175, 180 where he was going at the time. Uh but I don't really believe in Tajae Spears' ability to stay healthy. Like coming out of Tulane, they they talked about Tajae Spears having a lot of medical red flags and then also um he hasn't stayed healthy in the NFL. I think Nick Singleton right away can compete for the third down back on this team right from the beginning of the season. Assuming he's doing
Well, in training camp, which he should be because he's big and fast, and those are the types of players that get buzz in training camp. But Tony Pollard himself, being an older player, a player that's 29, who's had a thousand yards rushing in back-to-back-to-back-to-back seasons, if I'm not mistaken, four seasons in a row. Nick Singleton is going to have a hard time beating him out when healthy. But you're getting, at the very least, kind of like a contingent play right away in the 20th round, 18th round, 19th round, wherever you're taking him. But you also then have the upside that he can just be big, fast, and and great on third down and get himself on the field right away by being really good.
That's really just the nuts and bolts. Do you believe in the heuristics of a rookie running back with the size, with the speed, with the receiving profile in an ambiguous backfield? Pollard's going to be their early season grinder. Tajae's here, uh, Spears has kind of shown that he can't be a full-fledged three-down back. He's more of a complimentary back. And I do believe in Cam Akers, and I do believe in Brian Daboll. So, when I look at Nick Singleton, again, do I think he's all there mentally at this point? No. Do I think he's going to need at least a training camp, probably at least a half a year to fully get up to NFL speeds? Probably. But, when you're in the 17th round, the 18th round, yeah, you might be worried that you're taking a zero, but at the same time, you probably viewed Kyren as a zero. You probably viewed Puka as a zero. You probably viewed all those guys as a zero when they were coming out. At the end of the day, just [ __ ] swing. Just take a shot.
Forget about it. He's going to be every 15th round pick that I make, reasonably. Exactly. And Reed Rashaad, you can drop him. To take him. Him and Keaton Allen are going to be my 14th and 15th round pick in probably every single draft that I do. Walk like a spoiler. Yeah, exactly. And the reason for that, too, is I brought this up before. Brian Daboll, in back-to-back seasons, has started a day three running back, who's now his offensive coordinator. Cam Akers, Tyrod Taylor, and in back-to-back seasons, the incumbent starter of, you know, your Devin Singletary or your Tracy last year, has been replaced by a day three rookie who outperformed him in camp and in the preseason.
And also, we're acting like Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are the model of staying healthy? No. I mean, Pollard has been the last, you know, couple of years he's been in Tennessee. Also broke his leg in half in Dallas. Like, Spears, in his career, has never stayed on the field. And it feels ironic we're talking about a guy who literally is injured as we currently speaking, but like, it just kind of goes to show you like, this backfield is gross at the top. Tony Pollard, we're drafting him just because he profiles into the workload. What if that workload were to go away by the midpoint of the year? Obviously, dead zone running backs often inexplicably lose their workload, which Pollard, if if this was 2018, he would be a third or fourth round pick because he's a dead zone running back. But, we had him in round seven because people have learned not to just push volume projections up the board.
Yeah, and obviously, like, I'm not saying Tony Pollard's a bad pick. I actually think in round seven, if you need just strict early points, he's a fine click, but late season upside Nick Singleton last round, give me it. Yeah, give me it all day.
And uh, the last two guys that we're going to talk about here is these two Baltimore Ravens rookie wide receivers. Jacobi Lane was the third round pick of the two. He was the one drafted first. He's going to profile more to be your X receiver, I would imagine. Um, he's going to probably, if I had to guess, need to beat out Rashod Bateman right away. Um, because I think Bateman is kind of the current pseudo X receiver on the team. But Jacobi Lane, you know, 12 receiving touchdowns his sophomore season on the same field as Makai Lemon, Zachariah Branch, Deuce Robinson, Woody Marks. Like he he's used to producing alongside target competition. A certified my guy, as you guys might recall during the dynasty off season for me. I comped him to like the Allens of the Jacksonville Jaguars 2010s, which, you know, Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, kind of the range of outcomes. I think that he has that type of upside. He's also a very funny person, so I'm hoping that he's not Keyon Coleman 2.0.
Oh god. But the other guy that I think really fits the description for like true ball knowers will know that this is a player and an archetype of a player that can get on the field right away. I'm literally searching for him because I can't find him anywhere. Yeah, and he's talking about Elijah Serratt. Also, it's funny you mentioned that thing with Jacobi Lane. On that prospect sheet, I literally had Baltimore as one of his better fits cuz they did need this type of archetype of receiver cuz Bateman's more of your separator type. Zay Flowers is obviously more of your separator type. Just getting a guy that when you're inside the 20-yard line can't contribute with touchdowns, I mean even if he's not a huge smash, can't he just be this year's Isaac TeSlaa?
Yeah, and and again, from a redraft angle, which is the point of this video, I think he also has like the contingent upside if Lamar really has one of those Lamar type seasons where he's throwing 36 touchdowns, could Jacobi Lane catch nine touchdowns this year? Cuz Mark Andrews is not the same Mark Andrews he used to be. And Mark Andrews has always been like the go-to guy in the red zone for the Ravens. And as I've talked about on numerous occasions, Decklin Doyle is going to do things differently than the way that John Harbaugh and Todd Monken are going to do them. And I do think it's possible that the Ravens actually throw 550 times this season instead of 450 times like they usually do.
Wait, so you're what you're what you're saying is with Decklin Doyle coming over, this is just Elijah St. Brown? Uh, pretty much. Yeah.
And yeah, Surratt, the reason I think that he can get on the field right away and produce is Decklin Doyle, the Bears kind of coaching tree, they are more of an 11 personnel coaching tree. And I think it's the reason that you could put the breadcrumbs together to say that this is going to be a heavy 11 personnel team is the fact that they drafted two receivers in the third and fourth round, and they let their second tight end and third tight end walk in Charlie Kolar and Isaiah Likely. If they were going to operate the same type of 450 pass attempt, hammer it downhill with Derrick Henry, um, throw the ball like crazy to the tight ends in the red zone, don't you think they would have retained Isaiah Likely or Charlie Kolar or both instead of letting both walk and replacing them with two receivers?
Um, who was your comp for Elijah St. or uh, for for uh, Amon-Ra St. Brown? Do you remember? Uh, it was Tyler Boyd. And who was my comp for Elijah Surratt? Tyler Boyd.
I mean, I've been say I I if Elijah Surratt has a St. Brown like rookie season, I will be insufferable because I've been saying it for months that he could have that kind of thing. And yeah, I will be. I will be because I have a lot of shares of the guy. But those are the players that we think your kind of buffoon league mates are overlooking, rookies in redraft. Now again, there's some dynasty implications to this video. If you if you heard an argument here and you're like, I'm going to trade for that guy in dynasty, I think he has a good chance to get on the field right away and produce. It's going to influence dynasty rankings if Elijah Surratt has a great rookie season, obviously. So, um, definitely be sure to check out everything we're doing over on the site, whether it's redraft rankings like you heard some stuff for today in today's video, whether it's dynasty stuff, uh, the season pass for those of you guys that are, uh, you know, getting into your redraft, you're coming back to the scene. Training camps opening up soon. You want to get into our redraft rankings, use the tools that we showcase today. The consensus ADP platform is available with the season pass. Um, the draft sheets that we're going to have available for you guys. Let me actually just quickly show that off because we haven't really talked about it on our channel yet. Um, the draft sheets are going to basically give you guys personalized advice for your league settings. So, on the back end, Danny and I are going to set up our draft rankings to be somewhat chameleon-like so that they can be adjusted on the back end for three wide receiver start formats, for start sevens, for tight end premium, for half PPR, for standard, for, um, ESPN formats, for sleeper formats, etc., etc. So, that's a new feature of the, uh, of the site as well. So, if you guys are interested in any of that, go check it out. Again, if you want access to our dynasty draft guide, rookie draft guide, and also our redraft rankings manifesto, and projections, you can sign up over on Underdog Fantasy, use our promo code FSE, play five, get 50. And of course, if you already have an Underdog account, you can get access to all that on the site as well. So, like, comment, subscribe if you guys enjoyed. Peace out. We'll talk to you soon.