Transcription
Hey everyone, hopefully you're having a good day. My name's Andy. My channel's Finding Value. Today we're going to do our daily technical analysis, updated commodities, work our way through the dollar, yields, precious metals, and commodities ETFs that I follow. I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it together. And if you need help with anything, check out findinghyenvalue.com. I dive deeper into all these sectors, looking for potential investment opportunities, and sharing those opportunities with everybody in the community. special is a coupon code that you can use to get a discount if you'd like to join. It works both on the monthly and yearly memberships. Uh the first month ends up being $25 for only the first month with that special coupon code. And you get a $100 discount on the yearly membership, which ends up being about 500 bucks. And you can always swap from the monthly to the yearly if that's what you'd like to do.
All right, let's uh let's dive in, see what's going on today. Uh start with the DXY. We're seeing a little bit of strength with the DXY today. uh it is holding steady so to speak. Uh we didn't get huge followthrough but it's nonetheless holding here. Does that mean we just rocket lower? Nope. Does not mean that because we're holding steady now. This this whole chart here, if someone were to ask me, Andy, where do you think that's going to go? I would say higher. I would say higher. We're getting a little bit of a pullback here more recently, which I know [clears throat] I know those insiders want to push this thing lower. And the way that they have to push this the push and pulls within the market, they got to get yields down. And the only way they get yields down is if they push oil down. But I I just don't see how they're going to do that for a longer term move. I just don't see how they're going to do that. So, this is holding steady.
The 2-year was down slightly. Uh it has not broken in either direction. That is still squeezing into that corner. Now, this is a falling wedge. Falling wedges break higher. So, if they're trying to fight this, this is going to take a lot of money. It's going to take a lot of money. Uh the 10-year is up a little bit today and we're at that resistance area. Uh it does look good to me to break higher along with the 30-year yield which has a very similar setup to the 10-year yield which has already broken out to the upside. So there it is broken out to the upside and that still looks coiled to try to break this to the upside and outward. So I think the long end of the curve is headed higher which means bond yields or bond prices go lower and then the two-year that's squeezing up. I think this is going to go higher too eventually. I don't know if we detour lower before going higher like they try to lower interest rates which impacts the two-year and then the long end of the curve shoots higher. I'm not exactly sure how this is all going to play out here, but we're in the corner there and these things are starting to squeeze up and that they could squeeze for a little while longer, but they're squeezing nonetheless.
TLT bond prices are down a little bit today. Uh that still looks good to try to work its way on up uh from this particular chart, but longer term, I I think we're going to head lower. Um this is a shoulder head shoulder topping pattern. This whole thing is a topping pattern. We've broken the uptrend and now we're just sitting in this support zone. I think eventually this is going to break lower uh and and work its way lower at some point out in the future. This whole sideways chop has been from the economy slowing down. the bond prices kind of stabilize and if the economy starts to pick back up, inflation picks back up, I think prices will be sold and yields will go up.
The two and the 10, we have a little bit more yield curve uninversion. So, it's wanting to head lower. But that's again when we see these recessions, we see yields drop and the 2-year drops like a rock. Well, the 2-year was down 0.17 and the 10-year was up 0.1. That's not exactly dropping. I mean, uh, and we can see where this heads uh, and how it falls. And I know a lot of people, you know, I'm in the camp that we're in a different condition than this one, this one, this one, and this one. So when they go back and they look and they say, "Well, look at this one here and look at this crash here and look at this and look at this." I don't know if this will be the same. Uh and and the reason I say that is you're in a declining interest rate environment here. This one you're in an increasing interest rate environment over here. Now, I know that you can get recessions and even in an increasing interest rate environment, uh, like the 1970s when we had those big pullbacks. I'm not exactly sure it's going to be like that either because the debt situation's pretty rough and we're seeing we're seeing gold and silver rip out of very big patterns here. So, we may not get the same response on this side here. you might see the long end of the curve go up because inflation is being priced into this whole mix.
TYX TNX ratio is up slightly today. Not a huge move. This does look good for a potential breakout higher. Um what I'm saying is you run this through here. If it breaks out here, which it could, and you've got your lows coming up, I mean, we could see a breakout here. [clears throat] H what does that mean? It means the curve could be normalizing and that's when uh gold really takes off. I mean, it really takes off. Gold's up 40 bucks an ounce and it's really been taking off. I mean, it's been ripping and it looks good. It's a strong candlestick. Got my arrow there of where I think it's going to go. Uh silver's up 5.22%. That broke out of its little flag pattern to the upside. Everything looks good. Platinum's up 3%. That's ripping and that looks good. Uh that's in an uptrend. I think we could get a little bit of resistance up around 2150 2,300 like in that circle there. We've got palladium up 3.84%. That's also ripping and that's after the breakout of that consolidation breakout. So that looks really good. uh XAU to gold ratio. So, we're seeing the gold and silver mining companies underperforming a little bit, but it's got a bullish formation to break higher. So, would I be bearish? No, no, no. I would not be bearish on gold and silver mining companies and we're still at a very low valuation level compared to history. GDX is up 1.18 and it's consolidating still. Looks fantastic for a break higher at any at any time here. EXJ is the same thing. Silj, same thing. Just a consolidation. That's all it is.
Crude oil's up 2.32%. That does look like a bottoming pattern. That is a bullish piercing reversal pattern. Looking good. Looking good. We'll see if there's any follow-through and what that followthrough looks like. DTF gas is uh trying to find its footing here. It's chopping sideways, which we usually see in bottoming patterns. And we'll see if this can start to head higher. Natural Gas in America bouncing off my my support level of the circle there. Just so happened to place it in the right location. Uh up 5.22% today. And it looks good. We'll see if there's a bounce. Our boy XOP, yeah, you know me. bouncing 2.37%. Uh, can we get a little bit of an upside momentum move? I don't know. We'll see if there's any follow-through. We're still stuck between support and resistance. OIH up a percent has still has some downside momentum that has not been worked off. Same with XOP. It has downside momentum that needs to get worked off [clears throat] and we'll see if it can do it.
Newcastle coal futures are sideways. No, no new update there, but still in a very good location for an entry in my opinion. Now, I'm not playing Newcastle coal directly, guys. When I say an entry, um the chart looks good. I don't play some of these physical commodities. I'm not in the futures markets, but um and then the equities, we've been playing those and they've already bought them. They're already heading higher. So you can't use the physical futures market to necessarily time bottoms of the equities. The spraw physical uranium trust is still chopping sideways. It's still in that resistance box. No change. Um I do think it's going to break higher though. The reason you I think it's going to break higher is because we've broken this to the upside. We've retested and we've broken that pattern to the upside. So whatever it does here, I don't think it really matters. We're going up. The whole the whole commodity complex is going up. I mean to some people they'll look at this chart, they'll be like, "Oh, it's a shoulder and a head and a shoulder and we're going to come back." It doesn't matter, guys. The longer term, we're going up. I mean, you can draw those patterns and you can try to act bearish, but uh we're going higher in my opinion. uh uranium futures price down slightly in the short term. Going higher. We're going way higher, guys. We are going to be like $78 is going to look laughable when you look back five or 10 years. It's going to look laughable. This is going to be your base. And then when financial assets start to underperform, this will just start to rip. We're going multi00 on this. We're going up to we'll pro we'll probably go 350 to 500 on it. Same with oil. We'll go like 250 to 500 somewhere in that range.
URA uh down a little bit today, down 3 point something percent. Looks like we could still pull back a little bit. Maybe we're getting a little bit more of a retest out of this thing. You know what I'd say? Buying opportunity if it gets down there. Um M down a little bit about 2%. [clears throat] Still have still has selling pressure left in it. No bottom. Same with URJ. Little bit of selling pressure. We got good support down here where that line is about 2350. Uh nickel flat. This thing's been all over the place uh more more recently but chopping sideways. We've got copper up 1.2%. That's still in this little What am I doing here with this? We need to get We need to get the rectangle, guys. We need [clears throat] We got to get these rectangles. And there's the rectangular resistance box that we are trading in. Uh it's still bullish by the way. It's not bearish. COPX up 6%. That's also been in a little consolidation box. We'll go higher. It's looking good. A little box there, too. Uh lithium's up 1.1. This thing's about to run. Let it run, guys. We're right at this resistance level. We're sitting on top of it. It's going to rip um at some point here. We just had a little consolidation. It's good to go. It's good to go at some point. I mean, it looks good. RMX up 2.2. That also looks good to go. We're squeezing up. Just check the lows. The lows are squeezing up here. It'll go against that resistance and then pop out of it at some point. And that is your consolidation. Uh this is also a pattern if you guys have seen it. Uh that see that pattern all the time. uh is up a little bit. We're still in that resistance support box and we will rip out of this and charge to uh freedom where we can run instead of be constrained in this little box here. Aluminum's up 77. It's looking close. It's trying to break out. We'll see if we can break out of this thing. that also has the same pattern as uh lithium does and the same pattern as iron ore. If you look, they're all putting in the same pattern. Baltic dry index finding support in the support zone that we popped out here and came back into support.
Emerging markets is down 72%. Now, some people are going to say, "Oh, it's it's falling. It's rolling over." Guys, patience. It's going to rip. It will rip. Maybe we do a little loop, something on the lines of that, but it's going to rip. Now, what's going to hold this thing down if it gets held down? The dollar exchange rates, currency exchange rates. If if interest rates break to the upside and the dollar breaks to the upside, the DXY specifically, if you want to know what I'm talking about, this could stay down longer, but I don't know how they're going to stop it for a longterm move. though, but it could stay down lower. Move still chopping on the right hand side of that inverted shoulder head shoulder. We have not broken out yet. Still looks good. We got KRE up 4 something%. That looks good to break higher. We're sitting on top of support. Not much selling pressure. Everything looks good. Everything looks I mean this thing could really move. [clears throat] And then XHB is down a little bit. That's still above support. Still looks good to go higher. Why do I say that? because the pattern before it suggests a move upwards. That's why Russell's down a little bit 1%. We're getting the overall market kind of selling off as expected, guys. I've been waiting for this to kind of roll over a little bit. We've got S&P down. That's getting some stronger selling pressure. Kind of a strong move today in the S&P 500. And then we've got the NASDAQ down 1.8, breaking through support there, huh? Could this be rolling over? Could be. Could be. And we maybe we could see some followthrough here to the downside. Could that drag our commodity stuff lower? Yeah, maybe. Yeah. It could also supercharge something like gold and silver if they go to lower interest rates. Uh but I'm not sure if the long end of the curve is going to go down. Uh Dow Jones transportation. This is in a bullish formation to go higher. And and keep in mind guys, when the economy is strong, the stock market struggles, when the economy is strong, the stock market struggles. The stock market does well when interest rates are low and the economy is strong. Yes, that's when it does well. But if the economy goes and is very strong, inflation comes into the system and rates will go up, impacting stocks in a negative way towards the back end of an expansion phase. Just just an FYI. This still looks good. Um, no problems there to go higher.
XLI is down. We're back within the support region. Um, look like a retest to go higher, but we're back within the the pattern there. I'm have to remove my upward arrow. SMCI looking like total garbage. Um there's that clown with a clown hat and it's breaking to the downside. Looks absolutely garbagey. Now some people say, "Well, why you know maybe I should short it." No, you're shorting should have been up done up here. That would have been what you rode and then sold here. Now maybe on this breakout, but you're getting lower. This is the opportunity was here. not down here in my opinion. I I wouldn't touch it. I'd go look for something else that was up. Uh Nvidia down 3.8%. Now there's there's something that looks kind of crappy. I got my arrow heading down. Now someone would say, "Well, should I short Nvidia?" I don't know, guys. That's the strongest. This has been the strongest stock. Now, if you were to short it, I mean, maybe. I'm not. But good luck. But it does look like it's a topping pattern. And it does look like it wants to go lower.
Bitcoin's down 2.15. That looks like complete ASH like complete ash. Ash. Yes, that looks like it's could go could head lower. Ethereum. I had to redraw this. It does look pretty nasty today as it's breaking to the downside. Now, there's still some support there, but let's see what happens. See what happens. We could get some follow through here. I am not in the Bitcoin Ethereum camp. I'm I'm in the anti- Bitcoin Ethereum camp that I think these things could like go bust at some point. Micro Strategy down 4.25%. Sailor looking worried here. And I I just like talking about this because I think it's going to go lower. And that's the projected move that I think could potentially come. And that this fractal that move uh is that move over here. I just flipped it. It's all I did. The VIX is up 7%. That's creeping higher today. Could we go with a run higher? We could. We could see a sell-off in the stock market. Very well could. Uh so that's that's what I've got for today, guys. Uh give me a thumb up for the content. Subscribe to the channel. Subscribe to the website if you'd like. Special is the coupon code. I mainly talk about commodities because that's where I think the biggest opportunities are. precious metals, commodities, the undervalued stuff that [clears throat] most people said I was crazy for looking at for the past five years. Um, a lot of people also said there's no super cycle. Totally disagree with them. But super cycle is just starting. [clears throat] We're starting to outperform come off bottoms here. I'll show you what I mean by that. Uh, we could take gold versus uh let's do Bitcoin because why not? And and there it is. It is uh working its way on higher. We're putting in a double bottom here. I've got my arrow of gold outperforming. And what this is is just a representation of financial assets versus hard assets. That's all it is. Now, this this trend here, this isn't a base. This is this is a base here. It's a double bottom. Then we're going to break all the way up. Now, when this breaks, it could break Bitcoin. And when I mean break it, like break it forever because there is inherent flaws in the design of Bitcoin because it's made by mankind. It's not an element on the periodic table [clears throat] that we find in nature. So that we'll have to see. And I don't know if Bitcoin can endure a gigantic bare market in financial assets because there's, you know, you have to mine it. And if you can't mine it, uh, if the price goes too low, I'm not sure if that breaks it, if if none of the miners can make any money. I'm not sure how that works. And my estimation is it's possible that Bitcoin freezes in price where no transactions exist because the cost is too expensive to transact it. And the cost to transact becomes more expensive than the Bitcoin coins themselves. And I don't know if that happens with other other ones too. if it just, you know, if Bitcoin goes, does that impact Ethereum, uh, where that fails, too? I I I have no idea. It looks like we don't have the We don't have the U. Hold on, no, no, no. I grabbed the wrong one. It's uh, ETHUSD. There we go. And then you'll see this uh base out and and break out too like we've broken that kind of downtrend there. And then you get your lows are coming up too. And then you'll start to break some of these resistance levels going across here which will we'll break to the upside. So th that was some extra credit at the end there if you guys want to see it. Uh but that's all I've got for today, guys. So we'll catch you next time, guys. See you.