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Has the bubble burst yet for AI, especially on the US and Korean sides? Regarding job losses, will they ultimately help create economic growth or make the economy more prone to recession?
>> The performance in this sector has an increasingly large gap with capital gains derived from the financial sector. And oil will increase. This is an example of "diseased capitalism," which will occur more and more. Even Nvidia, selling at 45 US dollars, if you use 40-50 billion dollars per quarter, that's impressive. That's not net profit. So, when that happens, a gap is created. Now you have clarity in terms of supply, meaning you are competing to build, but how confident are you about demand? The time gap between demand size and supply size. And you still have the China Factor intervening. Who will it benefit more? Between expensive things in the center of the CR or buying from China? Why is it so volatile as we see now? The Japanese market, the Taiwanese market, the South Korean market, which are very connected to Wall Street, and the funds flow back and forth. If a bubble bursts violently, how will you respond? [Music] That's not net profit. But to answer whether it has burst violently yet, it hasn't. What did Elon Musk say? In a few years, money will be meaningless because >> AI will produce everything. >> Everything will be free. The belief is that when capitalism develops to a certain point, it will become a Maitreya society, and humans won't have to do anything. And what will humans become? They will become idle beings with no useful hands or feet. You won't need to use your hands or feet to earn a living anymore. Follow the money. If there's a question that it's still high, maybe it won't change their earnings forecast much. Professor, the part that China might produce as China Break TH, but will the supply be so abundant that it can support such immense demand, Professor?
>> Gita, you also need to help analyze whether profit and capital gains are moving in the same direction now. Why do some companies have excellent sales, but their stock prices fall sharply? >> Yes. >> Right? What is the big problem here? It's the profit, which is the performance in the real sector, having an increasingly large gap with capital gains from the financial sector. >> Yes. >> And it will increase. This is an example of "diseased capitalism." >> Uh-huh. >> And it will happen more and more, right? This needs further analysis. Why? Because your stock has been pumped up beyond its value. So, when asked, even Nvidia, which sells, sells, has a market value of 4-5 trillion US dollars. What do they sell per year? Per quarter, if you sell 40-50 billion dollars per quarter, that's impressive. For the whole year, it's around, I think, roughly 200 billion US dollars in sales. That's not even profit, not net profit. >> Yes, yes. So, when that happens, a gap is created. A gap between what? Between profit and capital gains. >> Yes. >> Which, it turns out, comes from sales and the market capitalization of the company. >> Yes. >> Right? And if this continues, with the China Factor growing larger and larger, and they don't need to rely on you much, and they will rely on you less and less. Why? Because you don't allow them to rely on you. You don't let them come to rely on you. >> Yes. >> Right? You enact all sorts of laws, citing security, citing this and that, citing geopolitics, right? And the relationship, Gita, you need to observe further. What is it? The gap between data centers that you are building so much, while now you are competing to build them. Each data center takes a short or long time to build. For example, the CapEx, the capital expenditure of all companies, which is so much, combined this year, it's likely not less than 700-800 billion dollars. Next year, it will exceed 1 trillion dollars. How is it? How many years does it take for you to be able to build it? Because it's not easy to build. How many years to build? One data center, if it's large scale, will it take 3-5 years, Professor? >> 3-5 years to build. And what will happen in the next 3-5 years? Now you have clarity in terms of supply size, meaning you are competing to build. That's about supply size, right? But how confident are you about demand? >> Right? And when there is a gap, a time gap between demand size and supply size. And you still have the China Factor intervening. If demand arises, most countries in the world, which are developed and underdeveloped countries, where will they get their demand from? Between expensive things in the center of the Nical R, or will they buy from China? Right? And this is what exists. Gita, help me think further. If it continues like this, what will be the trend for the financial sector, especially the money market and capital market? Why is it so volatile as we see now, shockingly? >> And if it's volatile, and there's a strong connection between the money market and capital market, like the global stock market, which has never happened before. For example, if major markets are highly connected, like markets in East Asia, the Japanese market, the Taiwanese market, the South Korean market, which are very connected to Wall Street, and funds flow back and forth. So, if something happens somewhere, and there's a collapse, a bubble bursts violently, how much will it affect other places? This is homework for Gita to think about further. Ask ChatGPT, what will it answer? >> Yes, Professor. From your perspective, as someone who studies the development of capitalism, has the current situation with AI reached a bubble burst yet, especially on the US and Korean sides? It cannot be said that it has started to show cracks. But to answer whether it has burst violently yet, it hasn't. Because people have high expectations for AI. So, the time between supply and demand for AI, I want you to analyze this deeply. >> Yes. >> Right? That in the end, when it's successful, will the demand factor be able to meet the huge investment you've made? And what's important? How is AI different from other technologies like the internet in the 1990s, or smartphones in the 2000s, or blockchain in the 2010s, compared to AI? The internet and smartphones and blockchain, you often see their benefits clearly. But their downsides, smartphones, do they have many downsides or negative aspects? Or even the internet, which started in the Clinton era. And smartphones started when Steve Jobs launched the 3G era. The internet started in the 2G era. Smartphones were launched in the 3G era, with the emergence of iOS and Android. And then later, 4G, and then blockchain, which led to cryptocurrencies. Some people say AI will be more powerful than the internet era, smartphone era, or any other era. But do you think AI only has positive aspects? Are there also risks or negative aspects that people fear, like taking away human jobs, or doing things that cannot be controlled, hacking systems? That's what the whole world is worried about, Professor. >> It will increase productivity significantly, of course, as everyone believes, as Kevin, who strongly supports AI, believes. Or like Elon Musk, like Jensen Huang believes. Of course, no one can deny that productivity is superb. But the more productive it is, the more opportunities there are to create new jobs or take away people's jobs. On one hand, it creates jobs, but on the other hand, it destroys existing jobs. Is it a net gain or loss? Have there been studies on this? When it comes out, are the positive and negative aspects, when you add and subtract, what's left? And if you can see these clear pictures, you will be able to tell what will happen in 5-6 years, after the data centers are fully built. >> What will this become, right? >> Yes, Professor. >> I don't have the answer, but as an academic, I've made observations for you to think about further. >> Yes. And from your perspective, Professor, comparing productivity with potential impacts, especially in terms of job losses, which also means consumption power in the system, if you compare them, will they ultimately help create economic growth or make the economy more prone to recession? >> I think the positive and negative factors can be assessed. I don't think the negative factors will be much greater than the positive ones, nor will the positive factors be much greater than the negative ones. So, when you add and subtract, there might be some net returns. But if that's the case, does it align with the market capitalization and the value of the AI sector that has increased so much as we see now? If it's as I say, and what's important is that when you have both disruptors and the disrupted at the same time, what will you do with the disrupted, which are humans, who have souls, who can fight back? Otherwise, if humans cannot fight back, then books wouldn't have been written since Marx and Lenin. >> Yes. >> Ah, the books on socialism that led to the overthrow of capitalism, right? >> Yes. >> Ah, if the power of the working class and those classes were not strong enough, how could they have revolutionized society, country after country, right? So, the question is, what will you do with all those who are disrupted? Do you have mechanisms to resolve them? For example, what is Elon Musk saying now? In his latest interview with the Economist? >> Yes. >> What did he say? >> He said not to worry. In a few years, money will be meaningless. Why? >> AI will produce everything. The cost of production will be almost zero. >> Ah, everything will be free. This might align perfectly with the connection between what? The belief that when capitalism develops to a certain point, it will become a Maitreya society, and humans won't have to do anything, and can pick fruits from the wish-fulfilling tree endlessly. >> And what will humans become? They will become idle beings. >> Yes. >> Why become idle beings? Because hands and feet are useless. You >> You won't need to use your hands or feet to earn a living anymore. Because society will be utopian. >> Yes. >> If we interpret what Elon Musk said, it means this. And at the same time, it connects with the belief of socialism, which aims for communism, a classless society, as we learned in political economics. >> Yes. >> That if humans develop society to a point where it becomes communist, and everyone is equal. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? The question is, will the Maitreya society and the communist society really happen? Can they happen? Can they transform from ideology into reality in practice? This is something to think about. But why does Elon Musk say that? He says that AI, robots, whether human robots or industrial robots, will increase productivity unprecedentedly for humanity, to the point where there is more than enough to sustain the lives of all humans in the world. Follow the.