Transcription
Now then, finally, what are the defense and security implications of the deal? Something that has been absolutely central to the negotiations but not very much talked about. Let's hear the thoughts of Professor Michael Clark, defense and foreign affairs analyst and a former director general of Russi. Thank you very much indeed, professor, for joining me.
Um, I gather that crucial to this deal is a really big exclusion zone that's been agreed around the islands, and that prior to it there was genuine worry that, in particular, Chinese boats and submarines and so forth could come very close to the military base, and that that is the reason that President Trump has agreed and signed off on this. What are your thoughts?
Yes. Yes. There's an exclusion zone of 24 nautical miles, which is 26 miles statute miles. That's a complete exclusion zone around the base, which is, was, is big enough to allow the base to operate all its electronic equipment and its satellite tracking and the seismic stuff that it does for the global community, um, in without interference. But there's also part of the deal, at least on paper, is that there can be no development within any of the Chaos Islands. So that means about 100 nautical miles, about 110 statute miles around the base. Nothing can happen to the other islands without Britain agreeing. So Mauritius and Britain have, between them, they have to agree. So that means if Mauritius were to say, "Oh, well, we don't mind having a a Chinese base or something on one of the outer islands," it couldn't happen legally unless Britain agreed. So it's it's a complete exclusion zone for, let's say, 26 miles, and it's a a veto power over anything that happens for 110 miles. So that's the nature of the of the protection that it's giving to the base, and they're paying 100 million a year for it. That's why a lot of people say, "Oh, it was a 9 billion 9.9 billion deal." Well, it is over 99 years. If you pay 100 million a year and over 90, you know, by by the by the year 2124, we'll have paid 9.9 billion. But remember that the I mean the French are paying 85 million euros a year for Djibouti, which is a tiny base compared to Diego Garcia. It's in the market of base um rentals, 100 million a year is not too bad. It's pretty good.
All right. Uh, a question from, as it were, the daft lad listening who says, "Well, hold on a second. It's an awful long way away from us. Why are we paying any money to have a base so far away? What's it really doing to defend our interests around the world? Not the Americans, ours."
Yeah, it's Well, we use it quite a lot. There's is an there's an air base there which is very important, and we're in and out of it's a there's a port. We've got a lot of um listening stuff there. A lot of intelligence operations go from there, and we use it for transit as well. Um, so yes, the Americans value it more than we do because they operate just more stuff than we do. But nevertheless, when we need it, it's very useful indeed because we've got we've got a bases in the Middle East. We've got Duqm in Oman, which is a base that's being built up. We've got the basin, naval base in Bahrain, and we've got, you know, a big air component in Doha at Al Udeid. Um, but if you want to take one more step uh eastwards, then you've got to really go to Diego Garcia, and then you're halfway to, you know, Singapore and East Asia, if that matters to you strategically.
Well, the final question is indeed on the strategy because this is presumably at the epicenter, on the front line of this gigantic confrontation really between China and the West.
Correct. And one of the one of the countries that most welcomes this deal, we talk about the Americans, they welcome it because if we didn't do this deal, it would be in a sort of legal limbo, and then the Chinese really would be sailing boats next to Diego Garcia, and we couldn't do anything about it legally. This provides a legal framework. Who will enforce it? We're not we're probably not capable of enforcing it ourselves, but the Americans will enforce it and so will India. India is really keen on this deal for exactly the same reasons that we are, that it provides a legal framework that will keep China out of the area that most matters to us for a sensitive base. So with with the United States and India behind this deal, then there's a reasonable chance, at least from a security perspective, that it will stick.
Uh, Michael Clark, I understand far more about the rationale behind this deal than I did five minutes ago. Thank you so much.