Transcription
Our threat used to be Iran was going to develop and make a rush for the nuclear weapon. Today they have veto control over the straight of Hermoose. And that's why the Gulf country says you're not ending this till that veto is eliminated.
Hello and welcome to GZero World. I'm Ian Bremer and we have a special show for you today. Taped in front of a live audience here in New York City. I'm bringing you my conversation with one of the most battle tested operators in American politics and diplomacy. Rahm Emanuel.
Emanuel has worn more than a few hats in public life. He was Democratic Party bulldog, congressman, White House chief of staff to President Obama, Mayor of Chicago, and most recently US ambassador to Japan, where he was on the front lines of America's strategy in the Indo-Pacific. But this is a conversation about power as much as it is about politics and how American foreign policy is reshaping the global order in real time.
The world looks very different today than it did when Emanuel's former boss, a belleaguered President Biden, left the White House and a victorious, albeit vindictive, President Trump strutdded back in. Roughly a year later, the president's decision to launch massive military strikes on Iran alongside Israel has sharply escalated a second term foreign policy approach that prioritized conquest over compromise from Greenland to Venezuela. And in recent weeks, the targeted Iran strikes have escalated into a broader regional war with Iranian retaliation hitting Gulf allies, disrupting the straight of Hormuz and threatening global energy markets.
At the same time, Trump's own objectives are changing. Early calls for regime change in Iran have faded. Demands around leadership and political outcomes have been scaled back. If ending the war were solely up to Trump, he'd basically be ready to declare victory and move on. But having gotten himself into a large-scale war, ending it on his own terms has proven more difficult than starting it. And from what I'm hearing from allied leaders, there is real concern not just about the war itself, but about the decision-making behind it. Some describe to me a president who appears, in their words, increasingly disconnected from reality in the middle of a major foreign policy crisis.
So, I talked to Emanuel about Iran, of course, but also about what this new posture means for America's alliances, its global standing, and its domestic politics, because President Trump's foreign policy is about to collide with the 2026 midterms, and war may be hell, but November doesn't look like a picnic for the president either.
But first, a word from the folks who help us keep the lights on. Funding for GZERO World is provided by our lead sponsor, Prologess, and by Cox, a family of businesses. Additional funding provided by Carnegie Corporation of New York, Coup and Patricia Euan, committed to bridging cultural differences in our communities, and Ron, got to start with the Middle East, of course. What a surprise. Shocking.
>> Yeah.
>> I don't see a plan to end it anytime soon. If you were offering advice to the commander and chief today, just today, never mind. We'll get to how they started all of this, but today you would say, "What?
>> What are you, a schmuck?"
>> Uh, no.
>> This is public television, Ron, but thank you for that. Well, there's a translation that comes underneath. Yeah.
>> You know the famous line, you know this in which is, you know, when you start a war, the other side gets a vote. Well, that's also true about ceasefires or peace. They get a vote too. And they have found all our vulnerabilities. We we have found their vulnerabilities as well in this process. And I think that the best thing the president can do is have degraded them to a point that goes back to where I think he should have started this if you were going to start it. That's a different question, which is this on the nuclear capacity, this on the intercontinental ballistic missiles, this on the delivery, and this on the terrorist organizations throughout the region. We have degraded them to the potential that they back backed off and here's what we're going to do on the oil and energy. Um the problem is now our threat used to be Iran was going to develop and make a rush for the nuclear weapon. Today they have veto control over the straight of Hermoose and that's why the Gulf country says you're not ending this till that veto is eliminated.
>> So at this point and I think you're right about this. The Israelis why don't we start the first question I got. You're right. So therefore let's end it right there. The Gulf states also want the Americans to continue and you know Trump owns this at this point.
>> The Gulf countries did not want this. They wanted serenity and order. They were prospering with that. They're also having spent some of my life in the region. They're not happy you got a Qatari jet. We invested in all your family's different businesses. and you we our voices are nothing and the prime minister walks in and you agree with him and we don't get any vote in this process.
>> The Israeli prime minister.
>> Yeah, I'm sorry. The Israeli prime minister. And so therefore, they've now said, "Okay, you started this. We didn't want this. We didn't get listened to. We didn't get asked. You ignored us. You have to finish it." And finishing it in your view means for for it's not my view. Well, my view, which is also relevant to their view, which is they cannot have a veto over the straight of Hormuz. They cannot have it. It's unacceptable.
>> And absolute regime change. That means what?
>> Have the president address the country. Not an 8minute video on social on his truth social, but address the country where you're about to put men and women at risk. In the Oval Office, the seriousness of this is the most serious decision a commander-in-chief will make. He should have said, "I wanted this resolved at the negotiating table. I spent months with my team at the table trying to seek a solution to their nuclear capacity, their missile delivery capacity, and their desire to create chaos throughout the region. And it I spent time at that table to seek a deal that worked for Iran and worked for us. I wanted that, but I also believed in the American word. And every president before me said, "Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and all options are on the table." and the American word when it gives it is worth defending. This decision you could have created a structure and an argument. He launches off into regime change and a political objective never can be achieved at 25,000 ft up in the air. An objective that the American people are uh questioning seriously, which is why are we doing this? If he had made that statement, is that statement consistent with the decision to decapitate and assassinate the supreme leader or that decision would have that speech would have had to be made with a different set of military objectives?
>> Listen, we are the superpower. At no time should there have been a decision to basically make this political in any measure. It should not because it can't be accomplished. Put aside, let me say one thing. It's pretty clear from the U. UK security officer who was at the negotiations and other reporting that Iran was offering very serious compromises on each of those buckets of issues. This was a war absolutely of choice. This is a war of choice. And that's why going back to your first question, the Gulf countries have said you didn't ask, we gave you our advice. We told you not to do this. Now that you do this, you have to finish the job. The Europeans are saying, "You didn't ask our advice. You didn't even tell us about it. Now we're not going to help you."
>> Well, one, the Europeans/NATO, it's a kind of first of it's a defensive organization. This is not defensive. Second is you have literally spent a year belittling allies. You've been ridiculing them, saying they're small, they're minor, they're petty. In the time of need, this is why we have allies. We spread not only the burden, we are stronger because we have allies. Now the price of that kind of politics is coming home to roost. Now I need to ask you about that because of course the director of counterterrorism
>> working in the United States doesn't just resign but resigns with this spectacular claim that the Israelis and their supporters in the United States um are are the reason the US is in this war. It's not an American national interest. You know that the prime minister of Israel has been around the block many, many times, has been pushing for uh major military operations in Iran for quite a while. How do you respond to those charges?
>> The prime minister has a right. He says what he says. It's on the president to make a decision. The prime minister asked Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Donald Trump won, George Bush. I think you can go as far back as Bill Clinton, but definitely this the first every one of them said no. Every one of them. If to say that this is on the prime minister means you're absolving the president of the United States of any agency. I'm sorry. We have a system. You get x amount of electoral votes. You put your hand on the Bible. You raise the other hand and you take an oath as commander-in-chief. The idea that somebody else told him to do this and he puts America's reputation, its best, its future, its men and women. There is a man who now has two seven-month-olds who will never see their father. On that fireplace mantle will be an American flag in a wooden triangle. There will be a seat at that two children's those twins home that will always be empty. The best of America is in our armed forces. That's the true 1%. you are the commander-in-chief. You are responsible for them. And to say somebody else read it says that he has no agency. And I don't accept that.
I mean certainly there is a lot of talk about deployment. There's talk about taking out the enriched uranium stockpiles. There's talk about taking out Car Island where 90% of the oil goes. Uh you think um that there should under any circumstances be a ground deployment here?
>> Okay. Whether it's a message sending or a preparation. I mean, I'm not part of any of the war plans or conversation, nor are you, but you can only guess what it's for. But these are a lot of resources being moved to an area that have clear intent and purpose as it relates to the island and the oil uh and the ability of Iran to sustain itself economically and to create the United States re create leverage so they don't have a veto power over passage in the straight to Hermoose. Now there there is a lot of stretch. There's stretch from Asia. There's stretch from weapons that are being sold
>> Europe
>> to Europe for Ukraine.
>> Yeah.
>> Um and the Ukrainians now are providing interceptors and drone expertise to the Gulf States.
>> Yeah. So you know this. So literally a year ago,
>> this is the piece you wrote
>> uh one year ago. Uh this is not what you want to be precient on but
>> it's the Washington Post.
>> Yeah. Washington Post. I wrote that don't ask for mineral rights, ask for their drone technology. They produce new drone technology every four weeks. Our we can't get an RFP out of the Pentagon in four years. Uh and they have their ability in battle not only I mean lit literally in real time the Ukrainians are taking technology. Something happens in the battle it gets a new company and they're producing new companies, new technology, new software, new capacity. They just had their first drone with no Chinese products, not something that we can do. So the you're asking for the wrong thing. 6 months ago, the Pentagon had a meeting with them on this and they said, "We don't need your technology." And now you have the situation, you know, we can't get it fast enough, etc. And I do believe this. I mean, and this is will be, and this gets to a separate subject, but they're all integrated. The president of the United States by taking sanctions off of Russia on their oil and then you have a friend that you belittled and made fun of is offering you drones that protect your troops. Russia, now have you taken sections off. Russia has given intel to kill American soldiers. This president does not know the difference between friend and foe. Does not know the difference. And appreciate that. The Ukrainians in the last two months have taken 225,000 square miles back from the Russians occupied. They have done it with incredible with ready new drone technology. They came up. They have thinned out the ability not only on the Russian lines but 70 miles from the lines. Russian cannot supply it. And this and you have a country who is providing technology to kill American s servicemen. You're the commander-in-chief. Do you know friend from foe?
>> When he was asked about the targeting
>> Yeah.
>> uh of uh American uh troops, American facilities,
>> his response to that was, "Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, you know, the Russians say that we do that, too. The United States is providing intelligence, of course, to the Ukrainians that allows them
>> to strike more deeply into Russian territory. The US continues to do that under Trump. Um, that was his response. What's a better response? Corporal Bonespur has never found an opportunity to not undermine American intelligence. And I say this, he's all, this is not the first time he's thrown American intelligence under the bus and gone with Russia. One of the things we know for a fact given our intelligence we made public during the early days pre the Russian invasion on February 22nd 2022. People gained a ma around the world massive respect for the capability of the United States intelligence. You have a commander-in-chief who at no time doesn't miss an opportunity to undermine it. Xi is furious that his own intelligence didn't know what the Americans knew.
I want to move to Asia because you've been spending time there. And let's face it, the Russians, as much as they were on their knees, they are not a high-erforming military right now. Not in their region, not globally. The Iranians are certainly not a high-erforming military.
>> The Chinese, on the other hand, are building like crazy, and they're increasingly technologically sophisticated. The message that the Americans are sending to top allies in the region, to Japan, to South Korea, to Australia, is can't count on the United States right now. So, what do you do?
>> So, one of the things, as you know, I've been strong about China, but I do want to remind you, they're spending a lot of money. They did have a submarine that went to the bottom of the river. It was sitting on the dock, just dropped. They found that in the missile system they were putting not fuel but water. They have some issues. When was the last time China fought a naval war? Never. So, and the reason X's do doing what he's doing because this is he's rolling the dice on this thing. He's rolling his entire tenure, his reputation. And his military last real effort was 1979. Now, you can say whatever you want about Venezuela, what we're doing in Iran, etc. That's a political judgment and a judgment worth having a debate about, which is what we're or discussion. Don't think for a second the uh Chinese walk away, oh, they have low inventory, which we do. They are seeing the capacity here. They saw what we did in Venezuela, both satellite, cyber, air, naval integration capacity. Don't be so sure he walked away and said, "Well, I got a better team."
>> I don't know.
>> I think he walks I Well, you can, but I'm I think he looks at what we've done and he there's and also our intelligence back in Ukraine. don't assume that he thinks the US military uh that he didn't walk away and said with a bit of envy and respect for what the military has been able to pull. I I understand that. Why does he not also look at the United States and say these these people have a glass jaw? They they've got a great military, but they they can't tolerate pain. We saw that with the critical minerals. They they thought they were going to win and we showed them that we've been investing and immediately they cry uncle and now on Iran tiny little country doesn't have military capacity and as soon as they close the straight suddenly it's like oh my god what are we going to do why why does that not embolden the Chinese
>> as you know it does the biggest analysis that he has with his top political adviser is that America is divided at home and incapable of governing what they worry about is a focused, determined America. They see our political dysfunction, his top political right. I'm not I'm telling you what's in the public domain top. The biggest problem for America is it internal domestic divisions. And I used to say this as ambassador. Nothing China does scares me. It's what we don't do here at home that scares me. If we don't take care of business here and start solving these problems, that is a bigger threat to us than China looking around and says, "Oh, America has a glass job." That's a that's a part of the equation. That's not the equation.
>> Uh recent report from uh VM which pretty reputable group tracks democracy says that the United States is sliding into authoritarianism faster than tur turkey or Hungary. Do you agree with that assessment? The institutions free press uh judicial system even the universities take a look at Harvard etc. they're holding up. the people in those institutions, not so much. And I think the biggest piece of this institution that I think is holding up American democracy, the American people, they are the thin blue line. Now, I will also say this to corporate America, you are timid souls. This is destroying the greatest research system the world has ever seen. Not a word, not a chirp. He's decided that it's a rule of one man, not the rule of law. I don't know how you think you're making money or businesses without the rule of law. Not a word, nothing. You're intimidated. He has in what do you have an organization for? You don't want to be an individual company. Have an organization speak up. Nothing. So, do I think the institutions? Yes. The people in them, as my grandmother would say, not so great.
>> Not so great.
>> Not so great. How do you, if you look ahead to 2028 for a second, if you're the Democrats, what's the most likely way they blow it? Being Democrats, uh, uh, look, I have said this before and I'll say it again. We spent two years communicating to people that we were worried about bathroom access and and locker room access and we never focused on classroom excellence. 50% of our kids wait 50% of our kids today cannot read at grade level and not a word. 50%. I what makes you think fourth grade is going to get easier after third grade you can't read and nobody it's not an it's not an you know more about the president's position on windmills never commented on it people go to see a doctor and the insurance company knows one word in the English language no your 401k is not a savings plan it backs stops your paycheck the thing is broken and it's rigged against people who work hard and play by the rules and that's where Democrats need to stay focused and they need to normalize themselves and be respectful of families. I think like this I mean I look at this and I look at some of the debates we had on basic core issues and we wrapped ourselves around a you know as I jokingly say we weren't good in the kitchen table. We weren't good in the family room. The only room we actually occupied was the bathroom and it's the smallest room in the house. This is insane.
Now, you haven't announced you're running yet, right?
>> And I'm not doing it here if I am doing it.
>> No, I'm not suggesting that. I mean, we know you're running, but you don't have to formally announce it. It's not a problem for me.
>> Now, I will say this again, having been ambassador in a way. Don't underestimate the power of America as America. We still are the place that people will cross the Pacific, the Atlantic, the Rio, and the Mississippi to get to because we still offer a better tomorrow than yesterday. We have incredible strengths in this country. We have been living on fumes as a country, but don't underestimate how strong the American pull and how strong America freedom is as a gravitational pull that takes people and grabs them by their heart.
Ladies and gentlemen, Rahman Emanuel That's our show this week. Come back next week and if you like what you've seen, or even if you don't, but you find that screaming at me on your television is less satisfying than screaming at me on stage, that's too bad because I'm not letting you anywhere near me. But you can take a deep breath and then take a moment to sign up for our most excellent newsletter. It's called GZero Daily.
Funding for GZERO World is provided by our lead sponsor, Prologess, and by Cox, a family of businesses. Additional funding provided by Carnegie Corporation of New York, Coup and Patricia Euan, committed to bridging cultural differences in our communities, and