Transcription
Senor, you can see me. I see you looking around your screen. I'm like, what is he searching for? You lost the window. How are you? I was I was trying to get around there was a popup trying to get around that. Uh, if you want another site to look at to keep track of the straight, vesselfinder.com. That's right. Everyone's watching the World Cup and Larry's looking at vesselinder.com. Okay. Who Who is playing in the World Cup right now? I don't know. I'm actually not watching it. I'm too busy on vesselfinder.com. We should start making bets. How many ships will go out today? Uh yeah, as long as long as you keep it under 20, we'll be you'll be a winner.
Um well, all eyes should be on Poland. Did you see? We'll talk about it later. Actually, we'll leave that till the end, but there was a significant statement from Prime Minister Tusk just a few minutes ago, I think, or not maybe a bit longer actually. I the team sent it to me about 20 minutes ago. Comes after the US warning, but that uh that was concerning when I read it. But let let's start with the funeral. We've been talking for um for a last couple of days on whether Israel would strike. Um and Ali Abdulahi, commander of the uh Alcatam, the Iran's army has warned Iran and the US, sorry, has warned Israel and the US against attacking during the funeral processions. And um there's a whole plethora of world leaders that are attending. And there was a point I made um earlier to Karen. Um she said something very I was speaking to her earlier and she made it the same point you've made. So I want to ask her what do you think will happen if they do strike? Um and she said something along the lines of it will be the end of um um the end of Israel. In other words, Iran would retaliate very heavily. Um my point was I don't think so. I remember people telling me that when if Nasha would get killed, Israel would get destroyed. If Ali Kam would get killed, Isaiah would get destroyed. My I thought about it today and my st I want to get your thoughts on it. My belief is that in the short term it won't be that significant. The attack won't be it'll be a heavy attack for sure, but it won't be more than what we saw during the peak of the war. Maybe a bit more, but that will be it. Um so it won't be the the destruction of Israel, significant damage, but where I think Israel would lose significantly is long-term. If the world sees Israel cross another massive red line um that everyone would consider unacceptable, killing the supreme leader at a funeral led attended by all world leaders during peace negotiations etc. um against the wishes of the US um that would just in in the glo Israel's global standing would take a massive massive hit. So I think Israel would mainly suffer from that that side of it. I don't think they'll strike, but I'm saying if they did, hypothetically speaking, because more and more people are talking about it in the last 24, 48 hours, Iran warned about it. That's where I think Israel would take the biggest hit.
Uh well, um I'll take the opposite position. So we saw in the like last week uh the the US strike on Iranian positions following the Iranian drone strike on Ever Lovely um uh the Iran struck back harder. So then the next day when the United States struck harder, Iran struck back harder. you know even with you know hitting even more targets now that was limited u I I think on this time the the Iranian patience will have been exhausted and there's enough pressure from let's call them the hardliners as the west likes to call them who thought that Iran never should have signed the in the first place he just got played and frankly if they listen to JD Vance yesterday or the day before he's admitted yeah you We're basically suckering them in, getting them to sign thisou so we can then the clip being you spoke about yesterday. Is that the one you're referring to? Yeah. He said, uh, we just did it to get the straight open so we get some oil restocked so we can, you know, go back at them. So, I I think with all of that, I think it' the odds would be uh highly likely that Iran would start a missile strike on Israel that wouldn't end until Israeli all every Israeli military base was unusable.
Um I there's another thought I had is the likelihood as I told you yesterday is that the likelihood of Israel striking the funeral procession. I agree, you know, we're we're aligned there that we both think it's highly unlikely. But what could happen is there's uh it's not only the Supreme Leader, there's other leaders as well. I didn't write their names, but other IRGC leaders, including the right-hand man, V, you know, who I'm referring to, you might know his name. Um, but they they're they've been seen in public for the first time at the funeral processions. Um, my thought would be I don't think they'll strike at the funeral, but they might be able, assuming Mushtaba shows up, but even if Mushtaba doesn't show up, they might be able to track them and we might see a decapitation strike a week from now, two weeks from now, four weeks from now. Um, but I think um the the the risk on the Iranian side is not an attack on that day, but it's giving their whereabouts on that day and allowing Israel the ability potentially to be able to track them again because they're currently in hiding. Um, so that's probably a bigger worry for me. Well, I hope you've considered that this funeral that uh for the ayat ham uh the the elder this this is going to be the largest funeral in history of the world. It's bigger than it's bigger than the number that showed up for the burial of John F. Kennedy. bigger than the burial of Mahatma Gandhi. Um, we haven't had anything comparable this with over we I don't think we've ever had a funeral of an extended public commemoration, memorial, funeral for a leader that's lasted seven days because it's it's going from, you know, basically today until uh the 9th uh which is next Wednesday uh which you've had over aund 100 leaders or 100 countries represented and the Iran already holds the record in the Guinness Book of World Records for the largest number largest percentage of a country's population to attend a funeral and that was from the burial of the Ayatollah back in 1989 and there you didn't have more than a hundred you didn't even have 50 representatives from other countries. Now you got over a hundred. You got Russia, you got China, you got India, you got all the major countries. You got Bashinad of Armenia. I don't know if AliV showed up. Probably did. Uh so this is uh you've never we this is really without precedent what's taking place right now. H um yeah I I I was going to check how many people attended Rudol's uh funeral. You think it will be this one? More people will attend this one than than one. Yeah. Yeah. They'll set they'll set a new record.
The irony of it uh my team did a post on it. I saw it was like both of them start you know on July 4th u America's declaration of independence and um the death of Iran's supreme leader sorry the funeral of Iran's supreme leader killed by the United States. So it's a a dark irony that day. Um yeah yeah so that's on that front. Um also we did we didn't talk about it yesterday. Netanyahu's press office did um deny the claims by the New York Times that they fabricated about Israel planning or attempting to assassinate Galibah from Arachi uh during the Pakistani negotiations. Remember what we talked about yesterday unsurprisingly. So doesn't mean it's true. Doesn't mean it's not true. It's impossible to really know. But that's uh that also happened. Um, now this is this will make you happy because I know I've I've been telling you the last couple of days that you know different reports of these military assets moving to the region, those military assets moving to the region. You get upset at me, tell me, Mario, shut up and hang up on me. I'll call you back. Now wait a second. Now wait a second. I have never disrespected you in that way. I have never told you to shut up. I have I tried to respect you. You told me it's on record. this recording. You said to Mar, "Shut up, you idiot." And hung up. It's Everyone could go back yesterday and listen to it. I don't I don't I don't speak I don't speak to my children that way.
Well, today's report though is uh several B-52 Shadow Fortress strategic bombers left the RAF Fairford in the UK and returned home. So, left the UK. The B-52s which returned from England took bombing. I was right. I was right during the war. H aircraft spotters in the UK reported that by July 1st all B-52s deployed in the US to RAF Fairford had left the British air base and so that was a couple hours ago and then 3 hours ago yesterday 11 uh US F-15 Strike Eagle fighter jets in service with the 492nd Fighter Squadron returned to RAF the UK from Jordan. All of the F-15s pictured have numerous GBU38 JDAM precision guided bomb makings painted to show their use against Iran during the Iran war to the F-15 E and their AGM158s JASM air launch cruise missiles markings. Anyway, so there's a few aircraft that have gone from Jordan to the UK. Best, let's say significant. I think the most significant one would be the B-52s going from the UK back to the US. So that happened two three hours ago. Gee, who told you that like five days ago? May maybe Uncle Larry knows something. So, I knew that'd make you happy. So, that happened in the last few hours. Thanks for that validation. Appreciate that. No worries.
Um, all right. So, that's in terms of some military equipment moving away. Um yesterday we spoke about the claims by Sentcom about the what was it the Boxer USS Boxer moving to the region. Um and there hasn't been much reports on that and oh we talked about in my discussion with one of my other guests about a lot of the military assets remaining. So it's going to put it into context in the last few days. Why why let me sorry to interrupt but why do you think Yes sir. Why do you think they announced that made that statement about the USS Boxer? Hey, it's in station. They're ready to go. Do you do you have any hypothesis about that? I don't. So my my analysis is that the US is doing that to try to focus attention on well we still got assets here in theater while this draw down is going on and you know to divert attention get people focus on this shiny object over here. Now the USS Boxer. Oh, where is it? You know, and but you know, they they failed to go back and ask the basic question. Well, wait a second. When did the USS Boxer depart for that region? That was Yeah. March 18th. I you know, as I as I said to you yesterday, if you put all the Marines in a rowboat and had them row, they would have got to they would have got to the to the location they are now before the USS Boxer did. So, it's just it's some mythology.
So, that's on the military buildup um or lack thereof. Um on Hormuz, we've talked about it so many times now. Um I think it's just there's negotiations that are ongoing. There's talks, some reports about vessels going through the Omani side, others about vessels going through the Iranian side. disputes on how many vessels how many vessels with the IS AIS transponders on or off they are going to Asia as you've said most of them China Japan has been getting more of them as well um but that's u that's something we've discussed significantly and the this we know about the deal yesterday where the US the Americans are trying to get Iran not to charge a fee to trade homes Iran saying no but we don't know what's happening behind the scenes are the Iranians saying look we need some very significant offer for us to consider giving up a fee at the straight home and that's where the sanctions lifting and the unfreezing of assets may be discussed. Access reported that this is a carrot that the Americans are giving the Iranians.
Let me throw one other I won't call it a fact but I I got information today from somebody who was in Doha and Iran never showed. They just said no. They had but they said they had a delegation there. Didn't show up. That's what I was told. But from uh my my my sources is reliable. Uh and uh uh former uh former let's call it former intelligence uh you know recently retired but still in contact with people who are active. And he said Iranians Iranians didn't show. They were supposed to, but they didn't. Interesting. That's the first I hear about it cuz the the both sides uh I haven't looked at in the last couple of days, but apparently there's been negotiations and talks. But even even a delegation negotiating delegation, nothing at all showed. No one at all. Or you're talking maybe the senior members did not. No. Correct. Nobody. They stayed home. Said it's not worth our time. Um, something else completely separate. Um, initially I thought it's a nothing burger. Uh, someone sent me a story, Mario, the IDF is in Venezuela. Um, and I'm like, all right, they're helping with the, you know, the earthquake. They're helping with, you know, reconstruction, rescue efforts, etc. Not reconstruction, rescue efforts. Then um there was a story by Venezuela analysis talking and then mentioned that this is the first time you know Venezuela severed ties with Tel Aviv with Israel back in 2009. So that makes the visit by the IDF a lot more significant. A lot of people are saying whether the IDF is expanding its influence in Latin America. Um Venezuela government welcomes Israeli diplomatic and military mission co-led by IDF homeront chiefs of staff Adiri. The preliminary team will be joined by additional Israeli personnel in the coming days. The Venezuelan government has welcomed an official Israeli delegation in the first significant bilateral engagement since Karaka sever ties with Tel Aviv in 2009. In the wake of the earthquake, a joint civilian military mission led by Israeli diplomat Yan landed. Um, in social media messages, the IDF claimed it's a humanitarian delegation to support recovery efforts and share Israel's experience in emergency situations. The Israeli government confirmed the deployment. Um, but there is um, you know, the skepticism there is whether this is just uh, you know, underneath the surface. this is something I wouldn't say more sinister just more of a um a new alliance between Venezuela now has a new leader that is seen as as more susceptible to US pressure and US interests. So would would that be a possibility that maybe there is uh something more to it?
No, not really. Look, uh, I mean, Israel's always had extensive intelligence links throughout, uh, Central and South America. The the second largest Jewish population in the Western Hemisphere is in Buenosides, second only to New York City. So, they got a huge Jewish presence in Buenosidis. Um the uh you know there was a guy I'll say his name because it was public. Marco Shrim. Marco uh was uh he was the one of the representatives for Philip Morris uh in Panama uh official distributors. And and when we were investigating Philip Morris for money laundering and for uh laundering, you know, selling cigarettes to drug cartels. Uh we got a shipment, we got documents one night where Marco's people were in this warehouse cutting off all the identifying labels on the master cases of cigarettes. and Panameanian customs caught him and initially was going to detain him but uh he got on the phone immediately to Philip Morris headquarters in Basil Switzerland and Philip Morris sent a document affirming oh no he's our distributor so anyway he was later connected to some Assad operatives out of Guatemala that were state moving weapons through the out of the fence of the Colombia in Colombia the right-wing guys in Colombia. So, you know, Israel's got its hooks. The MSAD and the intelligence got its hooks throughout Central and South America. So, you know, even though they broke relations with Venezuela 17 years ago, I guarantee you MSAD still had people operating in Venezuela.
That's wild how powerful they are for such a small country. They do, as Elon said, they heavily punch above their weight. They've obviously punched, in my view, punched too high above their weight from from a political and military perspective since October 7th, but they are they're insane. Um, all right. So, anyway, there's there's the Venezuela story. There's another story no one's talking about that I would consider very significant. So, what I've been talking about a lot recently is how this war is going to move to a new front. Uh, and that's through proxy wars. Well, uh, Houthi media has reported today that two Saudi fighter jets breached Houthi airspace, Yemeni airspace, wanting to bomb the airport of the capital to prevent an airplane carrying Houthi delegation from taking off and missing out on the funeral of Ali Kam. The Saudi Air Force called off the mission after Houthi air defenses attempted to shoot down the jets and threatened to retaliate with a missile attack on Riyad. The incident comes amidst heightened tension, heightened tensions and a mass mobilization effort of Yemeni fighters in Houthi territory and the territories controlled by the internationally recognized and Saudibacked Yemeni government and the territories of the now defunct southern transitional council. So this is all part of the tension, the mobilization we've seen especially from the Saudi backed Yemeni government or Yemeni groups and the Houthi you know mobilized in response have been reports of some clashes nothing too significant but if you add that with what happened in Iraq according to Ashra awat als Iraqi prime minister Ali aledi launched a secret anti-corruption campaign targeting Iran linked figures with a secret track focused on severing the twinning between tanaligned individuals and state institutions. So the big crackdown we saw on corruption a few days ago Ashra As osat is claiming that this was linked to targeting politicians linked to Iran. So we are seeing those power struggles you those different powers pulling in different directions. Saudi, the Gulf, mainly Saudi in this case, the Americans, I'm sure, are involved in many ways. The Iranians, and because these countries can't fight together, as I've said many times, I think we'll see more of these reports, which will I think we'll see similar things in Lebanon, too.
So, why did Iraq agree to let the body of Ayatah Ali Kami come into Iraq for one of the services? I don't think Iraq the government is turning on Iran. I think that's far from it. There might be a small power struggle in this case. Isn't that the implication saying that he went after only guys who were pro Iran? True. if it seemed to imply that he's being anti-Iranian except, you know, when it came down to putting the doing the funeral, they're they're fully supportive and and they met with so all I'm suggesting is there may be something else to this other than, you know, the you know, they say, "Well, these guys are pro Iranian, but you know, what were they doing internally, domestically against the existing government?" Um, yeah. So, I don't know much about Iraq. I wouldn't be surprised if it's not linked to Iran. I don't think the Iraqi struggle I I'm not I'm not convinced it's linked to Iran yet. Yemen, obviously, but I would say it's usually not binary either. So, we might see two countries, you know, we see this all the time, you know, especially in this region between Turkey and and and other Gulf countries, etc., Saudi and the UAE, pretty much all the countries where Israel and the US where it's not binary, where on one side they have good relations, etc., on the other side, they're fighting each other in another country. The UAE and Saudi doing a lot of business together. Yet in in Sudan, I think it is. No, sorry. In Yemen, they're fighting. They they had a direct fight, the two backed governments. So, I don't know whether we're seeing small power struggles in Iraq. I'm in your camp, but I don't know enough to really have an opinion on it, but this is just one media outlet reporting it. This one for me is less important than the Yemeni one. I think the Yemen one is um could get bloody. That worries me. Yeah, I know that I I don't disagree with that. That is I I've got I've I've had communications with somebody who's very active in the in the region doing consulting and he said keep an eye on the the Houthis in Yemen because there may be a a play which part of it's a you know really a USIsraeli effort to try to weaken the Houthis.
Now the big story of the day is Poland. Um so let's start with the uh Lithuanian. Let's start with the smaller ones. So initially there was a warning from so Medved says Finland has lifted its ban on huling nuclear weapons. What does that change for the Fins? Just one minor thing. Their country is now Russia's nuclear on Russia's nuclear target list. Rejoice Finland. You've reached peak security. And then Lithuania uh according to the president said or the president of Lithuania said a few days ago I initiated a constitutional amendment to remove the current restrictions on the possible deployment of nuclear weapons in Lithuania. This amendment would enable Lithuania to participate actively in NATO's collective nuclear deterrence. And the biggest story is uh Poland. So, uh, according to the Telegraph, the US has warned Poland that Russia may be preparing a limited armed provocation on Polish territory within months to test NATO's resolve. Quote, according to ONET, possible scenarios include Russian missiles or drone strikes on Polish critical infrastructure, cyber or hybrid attacks, or small crossber incursions from Kenigrad or Bellarus disguised as an accident. Disguised as an accident. Polish and Baltic security sources believe Moscow's goal would be to create a crisis that pressures Western allies to reduce or suspend military support for Ukraine without triggering a full-scale NATORussia war. One scenario being considered involves Russia Oellar Russian soldiers crossing into Poland and claiming they entered by mistake due to GPS failure or as part of a rescue mission. Polish sources say Moscow could then seek negotiations rather than confrontation, potentially using withdrawal from Polish territory as leverage to demand an end to Western aid to Ukraine. And sorry, the prime minister of Poland put out a statement. I don't want to I don't mean to scare anyone, but the coming months may be truly critical. And due to the changing nature of the war, these concerns are particularly palpable in the Baltic states. So that's the prime prime minister task of Poland. Well, the Baltic states should be worried if Lithuania is going to offer to, you know, put nuclear weapons in their country. Russia is not going to stand for that for one minute. They'll they'll they'll take over Lithuania. Just say, "No, this is not happening." you know, because that's an existential threat to Russia. And you know, they they've ignored Lithuania, Latia, Estonia up to this point. But if they, you know, this is in what the you call the FAFO mode. So if they if they go for uh saying, "Oh, yeah, we're going to put a nuke in here, uh, Russia's going to take it out." regarding the threat on Poland, at least the the report of a of Russia preparing some sort of attack on Poland to test NATO's resolve.
what does what does that mean? What does that mean to test NATO's resolve? Article five, I assume. Well, I mean, to see if it gets accurate. So, we've been talking for a while and there's been Russian diplomats that have been warning or you've Karaganov being one of them. you've talked about it as well that Russia is considering and has already shared the target list of Russian sorry of Ukrainian warehouses and factories or military factories in NATO that Russia could target because they're supporting Ukraine. Um so obviously if this is being considered that could lead to very significant escalation that I'm sure Putin who's as you said genuinely more restrained is taken into consideration. So if they want to test whether that's a good idea, a good way to probe um what a response would look like is to a small attack to see how NATO would respond. And based on that, then they keep discussing on whether striking NATO territory would be they're not they're not they they don't do a half measure like that. When they strike into a NATO country, whether it's Germany or the UK, those are the two most likely targets right off the bat. uh they're going to go after the factories uh production facilities that are involved with drones and missiles that have been used to attack Russia and you know they will have warned both Germany and UK stop this or else you know you choose and uh Britain's already doubling down and is sort of thumbming its nose at Russia so you know I wouldn't be surprised they hit the UK but uh Russia's not doing it to test to see if Article 5 will work. I think they already assume that that NATO would try to invoke Article 5, but then you got the problem that each country has to approve going to war. It's not just automatic.
They want to see they probably want to see how the the big elephant is the US. How the US would respond and Poland would be a good test case cuz I would be in the position that I don't think I don't believe Putin would like to see direct conflict with the US. Um, so it's a costbenefit analysis and I think you striking Poland and seeing what happens will be a way to um to get an idea of what that cost would look like and whether the US would get involved. That may have been the case two months ago, not now with both LRA saying that he looks at the entire anchorage agreement as just a it was a it was a trap. It was it was a pretext. It was a fraud that the United States was not genuinely interested in. negotiated settlement with uh Russia. So, you know, the Russians are acting accordingly going forward. Yeah, they don't uh they're they're planning assume the United States is going to get involved militarily and Russia's prepared to respond to that. The one who's not prepared for it is the United States.
Yeah. But would you agree that the US that Putin does not want to see direct war with with the US? Well, I Trump Trump's been on both sides of the issue. That was his position earlier, but not now. You know, he was praising Ukraine for its attacks inside Russia and insisted that the United States is now going to be more forthcoming with aid to Ukraine. The Russians have taken notes said, "Okay, that's your position. We understand it." Notice that they've not invited Whit and Kushner back to the Kremlin. I think the the US is probably one of the main um the main use the word obstacles that Russia has on with determining whether to strike. You know, they've warned about striking NATO for a while. They still haven't struck it. You might talk about why. What's the reason not to strike NATO? Well, the the cost of striking NATO would be NATO NATO retaliating and striking Russia. And is it worth it? Is the because the alternative is just continuing the war of attrition and gaining the territory slowly or waiting for the Ukrainian military to uh to capitulate which is what the objective of a war of attrition would be. So when they're making this calculation all should we continue a war of attrition or should we escalate um to force their hand and for force um NATO to stop supporting Ukraine and force an earlier end to the war and maybe our objectives all achieved. Um, and as they're making their that calculation, I think uh if NATO I think if if they have if they believe NATO would all come together and all retaliate in full force against Russia, I think Russia would be a lot more hesitant in striking NATO territory. But then if they calculate there's a lot of division within NATO and Trump doesn't that genuinely will not join um and there's a lot of indications that NATO a high likelihood NATO would not join that increases the likelihood that they will strike those targets in NATO. So for me this warning by the US if true um validates that the threat of a strike on NATO territory is now becoming more real. Oh yeah. Well, I reported uh or Reuters reported I re I reprinted it on my blog last night that there was a um one of the NATO ships tried to stop uh a Russian tanker transiting the Baltic, coming out of the Baltic and Russian military ship approached it at a fast rate, ran it off. So, one of these days, you know, someone's going to make a mistake and Russia will fire on a NATO ship, maybe sink it, and then there will be an uproar about article 5 and NATO will be exposed for being a complete uh internal contradiction that there is no uni unity on this uh that there is uh wide wide views. H well Greenland's um prime minister said quote the world today the world is unsettled that is why that is why we must stand strong together with others recent statements from people close to Trump remind us that we cannot take international support for granted. It must be built. It must be maintained and it requires us to present where the world leaders where the world's leaders meet. Um, oh that's a big one. Sorry. NATO, uh, Hexath plan to announce additional US troop reductions in Europe that came in from the Wall Street Journal today. Um, in Europe at a meeting of NATO's top military commanders last month, but he but the proposal was blocked after being reviewed by Marco Rubio and other senior Trump officials. The proposed cuts would have gone beyond the canceled armored brigade deployment to Poland and the early withdrawal of an infantry brigade from Romania. Instead, Hexath announced announced a six-month review of the US force posture in Europe. Officials hope next week's NATO summit in Turkey would project alliance unity despite concerns that disagreements over US military commitments could overshadow the meeting. But yeah, there was a plan by Hex to further cut US military presence in Europe, but that was revoked by U. Rubio and others according to Wall Street Journal today. pretty scary time to be an eastern eastern eastern European NATO member right now.
Yeah. It's interesting that Rubio and Hexath were on different sides of the issue. Yeah. That's an interesting one view at least JD Vance and the and the other two. Um, that's Yeah, we've covered everything. Um, is any other news on your front? Anything I missed? No, I think we we talked about it. just this this uh Iranian funeral. It's this is a big deal just because the western media is not covering it with in in and I'm not talking about history of the last hundred years in the history of the world. We have not seen a funeral commemoration this big with as many world at least leaders and or representatives of leading countries present. hasn't happened didn't happen in the 20th century and first time in the 21st. So, uh it's it's really pay attention to it. Larry, always a pleasure, my friend. Thank you. You know, and I've never told you to shut up. Thank you, Larry. I'll see you tomorrow. All right. All right, my friend. Keep smiling. Have a good laugh. All right. Thank you. All right, guys. We'll be going live again with Malcolm Nas, our fast last interview. It's an emergency interview in 20 minutes to discuss the developments when it comes to Poland and get his thoughts on it as someone who's fought with the Ukrainian military and as someone who's very supportive of the Ukrainian military efforts to get his perspective on these developments as well. Um, as well as the latest developments on Iran. But I'll really be focusing on on the news when it comes to Poland because that um that worries me. So, I'll see you guys then. Bye-bye.