Transcription
We currently have a corrective movement across the entire crypto market since the FOMC. We might be in the news phase of it, but we have important technical levels. We will talk about altcoin indices, specifically, and Total 3 because there are interesting visions. We will talk about key levels. Once again, I will talk about the weakest and strongest altcoins. How to identify if my altcoin is weak or strong? Because we see altcoins losing 15%, others not even decreasing like Aster, for example, which are already starting to rebound. So we will talk about all of that. Just before we start, I remind you that our free algorithm service is still available, +2.59R on the SPT algorithms last week, the LIM algorithms which achieved 14 TP. Once again, these algos are accessible for free. It's the first link in the pinned comment, all concerning my content. It brings you to this page. You just need to register on Bitgate via our partner link. It's the first link right here. And once that's done, you just need to watch this video here, this second link. It explains everything about configuring the algos but also how to get the mentorship and how to get the VIP Altcoin crypto. These are channels where I will share the best opportunities on Discord. All of this is free. Don't hesitate to check it all out.
So, to come back to the altcoin market, we are currently still on Oders, working on the big weekly fair value gap. I've talked about it many times, but we need to break this FVG if we really want to regain strong momentum. The difference with Total 3 is that this FVG has been broken, and the difference between Total 3 and Oders is quite simple. Total 3 is roughly all the crypto market assets outside the top 3. And so we have major assets that have performed recently, like outside the top 3, such as BNB which performed very well, Solana which also performed very well, and Hyperliquide which did not. Hyperliquide is part of Oders, but roughly, we have BNB and Solana that really, and XRP, well XRP sometimes it's included, sometimes it's not, but let's say really BNB and Solana that have performed very well and boosted Total 3, allowing it to break its weekly fair value gap.
Now, the reference point for, I know that the majority of people invested in altcoins are not invested in these altcoins, but rather in low-cap ones to try and get big multiples. And so, your reference point is Oders. Okay? And when we look at Oders, we see that for now, it still hasn't managed to break its weekly fair value gap. We've been stuck there for weeks. We see that we are still progressing. We are here on a market that is quietly forming its small bullish dynamic on the weekly, but which still hasn't managed to break this weekly fair value gap. Okay, so we see here that we are still being rejected. Total 3 is a bit different, as I just showed. It broke this weekly FVG and will now use it as support. So it will be important for this index to maintain this weekly FVG because if, and it's the same thing on Oders, we start to see the question of the last low that triggered a new high, this low is here. Then we would have an inversion of the price structure, and then we would have re-entry below the fair value gap, and that would mark a top on Total 3. I can tell you that would not be positive because it would also confirm the rejection of Oders here, with also, if we break the last low that allowed for a new high, it's this one. We also see that there was an order block, it will become a breaker block, and then that would probably confirm a top and a bearish continuation down to at least 255 billion. This would be an average drop of the altcoin market here of 13%, or even lower, we would have formed a top.
On the other hand, if, in the best-case scenario, everything goes well, meaning the last order block is maintained and we continue our small dynamic that we've been in for some time, i.e., W, break, pullback, bullish continuation, well then the day we actually break the FVG, then it can accelerate towards the next zone of 394 billion, or even try to make an ATH since the dynamic here is still bullish and as long as that's the case, the objective will be to make a new high. So you already have the framework.
Now, when you are invested in altcoins, if you are not in the right altcoins, meaning those that don't have momentum, well you suffer more from the variations. That is to say, your asset diverges compared to this. I showed you the formula to see if you have a good altcoin or not. You take your coin and divide it by Oders. So for example, if you take Hyperliquide and you divide it by Oders, you look at the curve a bit, you see that it holds up well. So that's a good coin. On the other hand, if you take, I don't know, I always take EGLD because it's the first one that comes to mind, and you divide it by Oders, it's not good at all. Okay? And so, you are underperforming Oders. And so it's normal that your dynamic looks like this. So now I'm going to go to EGLD, I'm going to take here, not Bitcoin, but hop, and you compare the two. And you clearly see that it's not the same dynamic at all. Okay? That is to say, when you are in a bullish dynamic on Oders, you are not necessarily in a bullish dynamic on EGLD. And you can see it here since here we have EGLD, here we have, look at the difference in the dynamic. High, high, descending high, ascending high. So it's normal that at each dip on Oders, you have an EGLD that gets more massacred because it's bearish compared to Oders. Okay, it already diverges against Bitcoin. Oders is less strong than BTC, but moreover, if your coin underperforms Oders, it means it underperforms the entire market. And that's why when there's a dump on Oders, you say to yourself, "No, every time my coin gets destroyed, it loses -15%, it gains 10%, and then it loses -10% again or -15%, and so it goes lower and lower with each dump." That's normal because it's globally underperforming. You should avoid this kind of coin.
For example, currently, if you take Aster, which was recently listed on centralized exchanges, you look at its reaction this morning. Here, we see that it rebounds very quickly and much faster. Okay, right here, we see that it holds up well compared to the dump of Oders here because it's an asset with momentum. I'm not telling you to buy Aster here, but it's just to show you that some assets will hold up better than others. There are phases where they will hold up less, but globally it's not like Monday it will be very strong, Tuesday weak it will collapse, Wednesday it will be very strong. No, these are really trends. That is to say, EGLD has been falling against Oders for months. Hype has been outperforming Oders for months. So this is really important to understand. In fact, if you want, it's your reference point in the market. That is to say, is the dynamic of my index bullish or bearish? So here, the dynamic on a weekly scale, wait, I'll remove this. So we'll put BTC back and then I'll hide it. But the question is to ask yourself, is my dynamic bullish or bearish on the altcoin index? If it's bearish, no matter what coin you have, it will have a high chance of being bearish. If it's bullish and your coin outperforms, your coin's dynamic will be bullish no matter what.
So here, for example, factually, if we look since the bottom of April 7th, well, it will stop at some point, but currently it's a dynamic that is still bullish, meaning we clearly see ascending lows and highs. It's just that if you have a coin that underperforms and diverges, well in any case, with each drop here, here, here, currently, well if your coin diverges, it makes lower lows each time, it rebounds but it makes lower lows. And that's important to understand. As we discussed, to have an altcoin season and really strong performance of the market as a whole, we probably need lower interest rates, which will allow institutions and speculators to speculate on the altcoin market because it's a very risky market, and we buy big risk when interest rates are very low, when money doesn't cost much, and currently money costs a lot because debt is expensive. So that's important to understand. We are trying to give value back to money to avoid creating too much inflation. And that's the world we are in right now. So investors will choose and favor safer investments, Bitcoin, Ethereum, stocks, stock indices, etc., rather than buying altcoins. But there are still some small narratives emerging in the crypto market that are causing some altcoins to perform.
And also, our reference point is BTC, it's very important. That is to say, Bitcoin, here, has returned to important zones, meaning its bearish weekly FVG, and it absolutely must break it to offer itself a bullish continuation, meaning here to form an ascending low and return to its trendline, its ATH right here. So that would be around $125,000 because if it doesn't break its weekly fair value gap, what happens? What happens is that BTC makes a descending high and then it makes a bearish continuation with the objective of the low of $107,000, but also why not the low of July at $105,200. And so, all Bitcoin drops are not favorable to the altcoin market, of course. There are very few assets currently that outperform BTC, and there haven't been many. There have perhaps been Solana, AAVE, Hyperliquide, Aster, Pump. I'm talking about recently, well, let's say over the last two months. After that, I look a lot at Coin 50, we've already talked about it. It's crucial for Coin 50 to maintain the bottom of its channel because we are in a bullish channel. The purpose of a bullish channel is to do what? Well, it's to make prices rise until the channel breaks, simply, and the price accepts it. Because in fact, we can break the channel but not accept the break and go back calmly. In fact, the market will simply no longer follow the channel's momentum. However, if we break the channel and the price accepts it, meaning it clearly forms a bearish dynamic below, then that often confirms a new bearish trend, and then you are in a new bearish dynamic. So here, we have returned to the bottom of the channel. We need to see if it will be maintained or not. We see that it's an interesting zone. Pullback of the trendline, the bottom of the channel. Bitcoin has cleaned up quite significantly. Ethereum too. Currently, on this 5-minute liquidation candle, we had over 170 million in liquidations on Bybit. That's huge. And on BTC, I think we had a lot of liquidations on BTC as well. Here, we had 186 million. So there are a lot of people getting liquidated on derivatives products, whether on Binance, Bybit, Hyperliquide, etc. So it's interesting to note that people who came to speculate with leverage are getting liquidated. So we'll see if this will allow us to take the opposite view or not, because if on this index we break this channel, then yes, there will be a bearish acceleration. So here, if we start to draw bearish structures like this, well it won't be very visible on the weekly, perhaps on the 3-day scale here, but then it could form a bearish structure that could mark a top on Coin 50. Coin 50 is a good indicator to judge the market's dynamic. But remember that it's super important to break the weekly fair value gap on Bitcoin because as long as we don't do it, it's difficult to revisit the ATH, and we could make a 100-year high, which is not at all positive for the altcoin market. And if we manage to break this fair value gap, it's quite positive. And then, not the entire altcoin market will follow again, only the strongest assets recently, so all that is BNB, Hyperliquide, Aster, Pump, Solana, etc. There are perhaps others, honestly, I'm not giving you the whole list. You've surely noticed some strong coins. For example, we see this morning that some are up 1% while the whole market is red. That's a coin that's holding up pretty well. Well, if you look for example at ATH USDT divided by Oders, here you can clearly see that it's well engaged in a movement that is quite strong. Okay. Uh here, and for now it's not over yet. So these are coins that will hold up well. But there are a few. You can count them on one hand. Those that hold up well during dumps, that are even positive. Then there are those that dump but dump as much as others. For example, we saw Fcoin -12% this morning, Virtual -9%, Pendle -8%, Tao -7%, -12% for AI XBT, almost. So these are coins that will perform less well. If I show you AI XBT divided by Oders, you can clearly see that directly, it's bearish for a very long time here. And for example, we can see here BCH which is -3.4%. So if you take BCH, even though everyone hates it, if we take BCH and divide it by Oders, well it's an asset that is still in a bullish dynamic against Oders. And that's why, in fact, on this drop, it's less destroyed. So it's very important to master these formulas to see if what I'm positioning myself on is good, because in crypto, we have the reflex of saying, "Yes, I'm buying the thing that hasn't performed yet, so it will easily do x2 x3," but no, in fact, if it doesn't perform when there's momentum in the market, it means there's disinterest and it has little chance of performing afterwards. And that, in fact, is a misconception because in an altcoin season it works because there are so many speculators looking, like you, to position themselves on things that haven't performed yet. So much liquidity is coming in that it works. But when liquidity is restricted and money rotates, we've seen it again, Hyperliquide fell while Aster rose. That is to say, people were selling Hyperliquide to go to Aster. We saw AAVE similarly, many people sold AAVE to go to Hyperliquide when it was performing. We see that money rotates. In fact, there isn't enough liquidity in the market currently to make everything explode. So, well, people are forced to sell assets to buy others. People sold AAVE to go to Hyperliquide and Solana. Then, people sold Hyperliquide to FOMO into Aster this weekend, and so on. So there's always a rotation, even within the same coins. Even if one coin pumps, people sell it, it starts to dump, it makes another one pump, and so on. And so when you invest in something that doesn't move, well there's little chance it will start to perform because when the market had strong momentum, the thing didn't move. So if the market weakens in momentum, the thing that didn't move will get crushed. And that's why when you divide them by Oders, you see that they haven't performed, or at least very little. If I take something like Render, for example, it might be tempting to say, "Yes, it's contracting, it's forming a triangle, it hasn't performed, it's sure to break out upwards." Maybe, but and since the market had momentum and it didn't take advantage of it, well we see that the opposite is happening. And so, you can see that precisely thanks to this formula here where you see that it's still bearish and so, well, for now it doesn't necessarily have a high chance of performing. So, let's make a big green candle to prove me wrong, but I mean, the dynamic is still bearish. So maybe there's a beginning of strength here on Render and maybe there will be breakouts to come, but I mean globally in its dynamic for a long time, it's an altcoin that has been underperforming others since it found its top here in May 2024, and we see that since then it has globally underperformed the market. So that's it, I'm reminding you of these little formulas here that can help you.
So currently, we are in a corrective movement, particularly on BTC, on Oders, etc. I remind you, as long as we don't break the last low here, there's nothing dramatic on these indices. Now, if your asset diverges, whether it breaks or not, it doesn't change anything because unfortunately, for example, I'll take the example of EGLD again, but for example, at this high here, EGLD might have done this. So even if Oders here, it doesn't break this low, well there's a chance that EGLD will break its low, and if Oders marks a rebound and goes up like this, that EGLD will do this. Then when Oders corrects, EGLD will do this. Okay? Or whatever the assets, I've shown you that they are weak. On the other hand, strong assets will follow Oders' dynamic, or even outperform it. Oders goes up here before retracing, then going up again. The altcoin might have been higher like this before retracing. You see? So there would be more strength. And that's important to understand that there aren't many assets that will perform. The market is rotating, there isn't enough liquidity anymore to fuel a pump in all directions. That's precisely why we're experiencing these kinds of movements when BTC corrects a bit, when we get liquidations on derivatives. Here, we saw a large cluster of liquidations that was triggered on BTC, Ethereum, and across the entire market. We really had a major liquidation ping. Often the market consolidates and will rebound after these liquidation pings. We will see precisely which coins rebound the best. These can be coins to watch. We see Solana at -4%. We see Solana that, for example, has already made a quite low wick here, which has made a rebound, probably more significant than other coins. I don't know, for example, if I take, there is Fcoin which is at -12%. See, for example, Farcoin rebounds much less than Solana. Here, all these are small signals that allow you to see which are the strong assets, weak assets, etc. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to bombard the likes, subscribe if you haven't already, leave a small comment. I also remind you, first link in the pinned comment for those who want to join my school and train with me. It's right here. So this link, join my trading school. It opens this page. The price is only €49 per month. It's commitment-free. It's my only paid subscription. Otherwise, you have the 36 and 12-month offers which are even cheaper. The school is simple, it's access to private briefs every day from Monday to Friday, live every morning, I answer your questions, I analyze your coins, we find opportunities together, we do market updates, I show you concepts and trading setups. I talk about my personal exposure, I also talk about my trades. And then you also have access to the school's training, which is a complete training, 8 modules that train you from A to Z, 19 hours of video courses, and you also have access to the student school Discord reserved for school members here to interact with the teachers, myself, we answer your questions, etc. It's continuous support. You have the description of the school on this page. You also have testimonials from members if you are interested. You are welcome. I'll stop here. See you very soon.