Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, back from the market. We'll start here with Bitcoin, which continues to fall, but we have a buying reaction. Is this a bottom? Are we really going to break this range now? We'll see all of that in detail. Then, of course, we'll talk about altcoins. We'll look at three altcoins that were requested for analysis. I've noted Tao, Hyperliquid, and IExec. And we'll also follow up on the trades I've taken recently, particularly on Solana. I'll tell you generally what I've done on my end. Before I start, I remind you, you now have only 3 days left to take advantage of the current offer on the "Become a Trader" mentorship. €400 off, this is really the last time you can join the mentorship at such a low price. So, it's really important to note that. This is really the final stretch. You have a window here that is truly exceptional. And ask yourself the right questions. Are you satisfied with your 2024, 2025 results, from a trading perspective, from an investment perspective? Perhaps you're missing a strategy, perhaps you're missing a method, a framework, a discipline. You have all of that inside the mentorship. Become a trader through several things. First, through a path that is built from A to Z to lead you to autonomy, so that you are 100% autonomous. 30 hours of video, you progress at your own pace, whether you have 10-15 minutes a day, or even 1 hour a week, you progress at your own pace. The markets will always be there. When you join the mentorship, you progress at your own pace. You always have access, there's no renewal. Yes, you have, I don't know, 6 months to finish everything. No, if it takes you a year, if it takes you 3 months, if it takes you a month, you progress as you wish. And after completing these 30 hours, or even during, you can combine both, of course. You'll see the live market briefings here, the monthly trading clinic where we'll solve concrete cases. The goal is to accelerate your learning, and then you have one-to-one coaching, you have the private "Become a Trader" circle, and so on. The goal is to accelerate your learning so that you quickly become autonomous and profitable. And I remind you, you take no risk with the "Profitable Trader or Refunded" guarantee. So I invite you to click on the first link in the description. For those who have joined recently, don't hesitate to contact me so I can give you access to the private group on Discord. And that's it, for those who haven't joined yet, well, I'll see you very soon. You just have to join by clicking on the first link in the description and taking advantage of the €400 off.
Alright, let's start here with Bitcoin. Over the past few days, we had our selling reaction, and now we've come back to test our previous range high. We've already come back to test the middle of the range for this entire period of sideways movement. And here, we had created a smaller range. We simply, simply pulled back to the previous value high, which is simply our range high. We see a buying reaction that is rather good. We haven't really established a bottom for this bearish dynamic that we've put in place on the 1-hour chart yet. We see it clearly here. If I add moving averages, okay, we are below the 15-minute. When we break the 15-minute upwards, then we can say, "Okay, we're trying to go up again here and potentially make a new high." For now, we're trying to build a bottom, but we're still below the 15, below the 15-minute. We had a capitulation wick here, we took out stops, we had a buying reaction during the US market. So, on that, it's certainly rather, rather good. We see well that we've dug here and immediately had a bullish engulfing and a US market that is rather bullish. Now, we need, well, we need it to hold, and above all, we need to get above this 15-minute tunnel. It's not surprising to come back to test a previous value high like this. Now, in any case, we saw that if we have a bottom like this, it's not just a VOP that will reverse a dynamic. When we start to build accumulation phases and we pump, it's very rare that we do that. Or that's on shitcoins, or there's really a big economic announcement, something, something serious. But generally, it's very, very rare to have this kind of pattern. Often, we'll structure an MTP here, have a reversal pattern, but we won't go back up in a V-shape. So ideally, if sellers want to establish a top, we'll come back here to test our reload zone around 0.118. We'll do something like this. Okay, to establish a bigger top. And then, okay, we can say that this pattern reverses this W. For now, that's not the case. So, it's not to say that I'm starting to take longs. We saw that there was a loss of momentum, and I've withdrawn a bit in the short term. I'm waiting for a more interesting signal. And the more interesting signal is here. It's if we start to move back above the 15-minute tunnel. We see it anyway, it's quite clear. I'll change the chart to make it a bit more readable. There, we see the difference between a market that is bullish, okay, very bullish with interesting trades to take in these moments where we have strong momentum, and here in the short term, it's okay, we long, we long, we long, and here in the shorter term where we have a bearish trend, and at what point does it become interesting again? Well, when we have the same context, that is to say, 3-minute above the 15-minute, above the 1-hour. That's when we have the best context for trading on, well, on the 5-minute, 15-minute, intraday overall. For now, we see that over the past few days, we've been in a bearish dynamic. We are potentially turning around. For me, it would become interesting again in the short term if we start to establish ourselves above the 15-minute and we move back, we flip our moving averages all pointing upwards, and then I could take longs again. So currently, I'm in wait-and-see mode. I'm in patient mode. We had a window here for 5 days. We've been trading actively since the very beginning of the year. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, we've had quite a few trades. Now, I prefer to wait for a new window. So, you know that I've often said that during this sideways phase, we were bored. However, when we have this type of phase at this level, these are the best phases where it's simply the most interesting to trade. At this level, you see this kind of pump, that's very interesting. However, when we have phases where, well, the market retraces or the market moves sideways, it's less interesting, but it can start again. So here, I'm in patient mode. Now, we are still inside a range, don't forget that. Okay? When we zoom out and put it on daily, it's still a range. And in a range, the highest probabilities are a selling reaction at the upper extremity, a buying reaction at the lower extremity, and of course, we have our middle of the range which acts as an intermediate level, simply. Now, yes, I see that sentiment can move quite quickly on cryptocurrencies right now. One moment everyone is bullish. Ah, it's bearish. And you really need to take a step back from that. Now, when you're starting out, it's normal. I like to draw a diagram here where we'll draw a sort of pendulum. We'll draw a pendulum, simply. And your emotions, when you trade, will generally be euphoria, joy, when everything goes well, when everything pumps, or fear. No matter what you trade, when you string together winning trades, you're very happy. When you string together losing trades, you're rather fearful. That works a bit in everything in life. And the goal is simply that this pendulum always oscillates between euphoria and fear, for everyone, including myself, the best traders, everyone. It will swing between euphoria and fear. And this pendulum is very large when you start, when you start in the markets, it's very, very large. Okay? And we'll make oscillations between the two. And the more you trade, the more this pendulum will shrink, and in the end, it will be very small, and it will always make oscillations. The difference is that they will be much smaller, and you will manage your emotions, your states of mind, your state of mind, etc., much better because when you trade, you often hear "Yes, emotions, you have to cut them, you have to put them aside." We are humans. Okay? So it's normal to have emotions. Now the question is, how do you react to these emotions in life? No matter what you do, when you play sports, when you do this, when you do that, when you're attacked, when you have critical situations, no matter what, no matter when, I don't know, when there are rather rare events, you will also oscillate between these two levels, and you can never really cut off your emotions. However, it's about how you react to it. And when you trade by repeating, by repeating, by repeating, and you gain experience, you gain confidence, and especially, patterns repeat themselves. You know them much better, and this pendulum will swing less, and you will be much more comfortable. There will always be phases of euphoria. Me too. Yes, when Bitcoin passes $100,000, I'm euphoric. Okay, that's normal. However, it's not for that reason that I'll FOMO, it's not for that reason that I'll be in "all in" mode, that it's over, or that I'll do anything. No, I know how to manage and control my emotions, of course. And this, the more you repeat, the more you'll have a framework, a method, everything we see here in the mentorship, and the smaller this line, this pendulum, will become. Okay? And the goal is to reduce it as much as possible so that when it oscillates, you'll make many fewer mistakes, and when you start, the mistakes are significant because this pendulum is much more, it swings much more. This is a concrete case of psychology that needs to be understood. Generally, you oscillate between euphoria and fear, fear and euphoria, and your decisions are often linked to these two emotions. When you understand this, it can greatly unblock you in certain areas of your trading and also your investments. That's it.
In any case, on the Bitcoin side, not much to say. We still have rather low volatility in the long term, not the volatility we experienced in phases like this or like this. However, we must not forget that in a few weeks, from October to November, in one month, a little more, in 6 weeks, we gained 30%. So, it's normal to have a market that breathes like here when we went down, like here when we went up. It's normal to have phases here where it often holds for 3 weeks on Bitcoin. Yes, it's quite common, you see, one week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, we pump. Here, one week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, we dump, rather, rather well. It's especially in two or three candles where we have a good month that often, whether it's up or down, then we enter a sideways phase. Here, one week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks of gains, it calms down. Here, one week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks of losses. We'll see next if we break up or down. The most important thing for those who do long-term trading, set alerts. It's useless to always be on the 5-minute, 15-minute if you're making decisions for the long term. That's it for BTC.
Regarding altcoins, it's a bit similar, which is why I'm going through Ether very quickly because, well, Bitcoin is the leader, and we're mainly watching BTC right now. Ether is still in a sideways phase. We've come back to test, pull back to our neckline of this W structure, which is a very good zone to look for longs. It's a good entry zone. If I switch to this chart, good confluence here, weekly pivot point, 4-hour tunnel, monthly pivot point. We see, again, a good buying reaction. However, we are still in a bearish dynamic on the 1-hour with moving averages pointing downwards. 3-minute below the 15-minute. We are also below the 1-hour. So, again, I shared with you trades that I took on Ether at this level. These are the best market conditions. We pull back, the moving averages are pointing upwards. We're looking for a pivot point. For now, we'd need to get back above the 15-minute, the 3-minute to cross the 15-minute upwards, and for me to have strong momentum to find this kind of trade again. Yes, we can be in a good entry zone to take trades from a swing, medium-term perspective because we are at the 4-hour tunnel level, but I haven't specifically had a setup that has executed, and I'm doing much more intraday trading right now than swing trading given the market context. I'm much more comfortable like this. So, for me, in any case, my plan, my strategy on Ether, is to wait for a pump. To regain bullish momentum and take longs. And if we don't do that and we dump sharply, if we start to break these lows here, and we start to have moving averages pointing downwards, then at that level, I'll take shorts in the other direction to simply take shorts in the direction of the trend, which will be bearish at that time. After that, the big signals for Ether in the long term haven't changed. If we start to break $3400, the objective is $3800 and $4000. And if we start to settle below $2700, the objective here is $2200. If we look at the pair against BTC, it's still a sideways phase at the daily tunnel level. Yes, we are in a compression phase. A very bullish signal would be a break of this level. We would validate a W structure, a trend continuation structure, where the objective would be to make a new high and start this correction phase. We could come back to test our reload zone, the short between 0.786 and 0.18, which would be a good objective where Ether would outperform Bitcoin for a period. We must not forget that we have retraced significantly, and for years, since 2022-2023, we've had Bitcoin largely stronger than Ether. So, it's normal to have a correction phase where Ether regains some strength against Bitcoin. But here, very low volatility, so we'd need to wait for a resolution of this level upwards. If, on the other hand, we lose this level downwards, we can expect to come back to test the neckline of this W structure.
Regarding the altcoins that were requested for analysis, I'll start with Tao. Tao is a bit in a phase where it's, it's rather strong at the moment, we can say that. We've come back to test a low extremity. We see it clearly, it's a Tao range. And that's where the importance of drawing your levels lies. See? There, we have a low extremity. Here, we have a high extremity. We'll have an intermediate extremity at this level, which is roughly our middle of the range. And these are intervention levels. No need to start saying, "Yes, people are anticipating, what will happen, etc." No, you draw your zones. We look for these zones, and then you observe how the market reacts when it starts to form W structures like this daily W that moves back above the 15-minute, the 1-hour, the 4-hour, these are rather good signals. Or else, it's taking a risk associated with managing that risk. Okay? All this calculation is probabilities associated with risk management, and then you place your stop loss, you place your take profit, and then you intervene at relevant levels from a technical perspective, and then you wait for a buying reaction like we had here, like we had here. Don't start saying, "Yes, because we're going there, it's going to break." No, it's certain that at some point it will break downwards or upwards, I don't know, but at some point it will break. That's the importance of risk management. But every time we are at a support level, you shouldn't say, "Ah, this time it's going to break, ah, this time it's going to break." In any case, we have a good buying reaction here. We are attacking an intermediate resistance level, which is simply this $300 level, which long served as support at this level before breaking it. We settle below it, and it served as resistance. If we re-enter it, the objective is to reach $450. But remember to take your profits. Many people are on Tao, and many have a lot of trouble. Many people, sorry, have trouble taking their profits. There's nothing wrong with lightening up a part, 50%, 30%, it's up to you. But take your profits, okay? That's really important. So Tao, well, for me, it's, it's complicated to enter now because it has already pumped a lot. The signal was given much earlier. However, for trend continuation, it could be good because here we have a strong altcoin, an altcoin that is decoupling from Bitcoin and Ether. Why? Because Tao is making a new high, Bitcoin is not making a new high, it has come back much lower. So that's rather good. We see that we had a 15-minute above the 1-hour, we pulled back on the 15-minute, we had good buying reactions. Here we are, yes, you see the context I was telling you about Bitcoin, I'd like that to do intraday again. It's on Tao here, we're looking to do intraday throughout this upward phase. When we start to lose the 15-minute, then we calm down. Okay? We move back above the 15-minute, then it becomes interesting again because we'll find moving averages that will be exactly like this. And then pullbacks will be interesting, whether it's here, or later. Okay? They will be interesting for trend continuation. You asked me about Tao, then you asked me about Hyperliquid, and we'll look at IExec. So Hyperliquid, where are we? Hyperliquid, it hasn't changed. From a long-term perspective, we're coming back to test a good entry zone to position ourselves for the long term. Why? Because if I draw Fibonacci here, we see that we're testing our zone between 0.18 and 0.7186. Yes, we are in a good entry zone. We are even, from a price action perspective, $25, the previous range that we then broke. So, the zone is good. We have retraced quite a bit. However, it's not for that reason that we'll establish a bottom here. We could very well, at this level, consolidate or push, have another bearish excess. It's entirely possible. But in any case, a professional investor doesn't position themselves above a long-term reload zone, so above 0.58, 0.786. However, when we come back here, yes, as I said, it becomes interesting. After that, it's up to you to see how you position yourself. Is it when we have a buying reaction like a W structure? Do you place orders in a "fishing net" mode like I might have done, and I still have some down to $20? Do you manage, do you do a DCA? That's up to you based on your profile, your convictions, etc. In any case, for me, Hyperliquid remains a good crypto, okay, that I hold in my portfolio, not as much as Bitcoin or Ether, but I have some because it's one of the altcoins, and we've seen this decoupling for a long time of Hyperliquid compared to other altcoins. For me, Hyperliquid will have a phase where it performs. Don't expect a 50x. We are still on a well-capitalized altcoin. However, it has the potential to reach $70-$100. It's a possibility, not in a week, not in two weeks, but in the long term, it could aim for that level. But already making a new ATH is clearly a possibility. So, for me, it's becoming interesting again since we dropped below $28 to accumulate. After that, of course, adapt to your profile with your risk management, and above all, you must have convictions. It's not because it's a crypto that interests me that you should say, "Ah, Nico said it's a crypto that interests him, I'm going all in." No, because if you don't have convictions about this crypto, you won't be able to hold it long term. When there are difficult times, it will be too hard for you to manage because you don't have convictions about this crypto. Now, if we start a retracement phase, there's the $35 level, it's a good daily tunnel zone, resistance zone. Then after that, it's in stages. You see the resistance levels, they are drawn, $42, and then $48.
Last crypto, IExec. I'll take Matic to have the full chart, it will be simpler. Now, these are cryptos that are tending towards zero. So, where did my chart stop? It stopped in October. That's the problem. We'd need to find a chart that mixes the two. Ah, there we go, perfect. Well, we'll take this. It will be a bit simpler. Unless we've come back to test what. No, we haven't come back to test. Well, I'll take Capital.com. Okay, we see that it's clearly a bearish chart. We broke out of this phase downwards. We pulled back, we see it clearly, and we rejected. For now, we are simply in a bearish dynamic with lower lows and lower highs, and lower lows and lower highs, and that's all we're doing. So, it's not a crypto where you'd say, "I'll DCA on this" because you see that, well, someone who has been DCAing since then, for years, is clearly at a loss. So, it depends on how you position yourself. For me, these are cryptos that won't make a new ATH. There was a possibility if we hadn't broken this range downwards, if we had broken upwards, it was possible. Now, there are too many buyers stuck here. If we have a bullish cycle, this altcoin could come back to test here, here at the limit, but I find it hard to believe we'll have something like this, very unlikely. Even if it manages to re-enter this level, it will already be like, it will already be a good performance, simply. We are still in a bearish dynamic. We still have moving averages pointing downwards. We have no bottom drawn. To really draw a bottom, it would be good to validate a W structure. Now, there can be traps. The proof here, we had a W structure drawn, but we didn't, we didn't go. After all, we were also at a resistance level because it was the low of our range. Now, for me, if you are looking for a bullish signal on IExec, if we have a clear re-entry above 30 cents, okay, then we'll have a big deviation, re-entry, or else we'll have at this level or lower here a W structure. But given the chart, for me, it's not interesting, and it's not an altcoin that makes me want to be interested in it. The chart is too weak, there's no buying reaction, it's ugly, the chart, and I prefer to be interested in something else. Now, if it becomes interesting again, I can change my mind, of course, I react to what I see. For now, when I put it on logarithmic, well, yes, this is a chart that doesn't make me want to enter a position. It's very ugly. We see it clearly since the ATH here, we are at -97%. So, no, it's not a chart that is interesting at the moment. If we make W structures, we have bullish signals there. Yes, okay, why not. That's it for the cryptos. Don't hesitate to tell me if you think we're at a top or, on the contrary, if it's a trap to go higher. For those who want to train themselves, to have all the necessary skills to become profitable in 2026, I invite you to take advantage of the current offer by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.