Transcription
Hey, this is Tom. And for the past three weeks, we have seen the situation in Iran escalate. And right now, the markets are in total chaos.
But, counter to what you're hearing on mainstream media and almost counter to your natural intuition, what we have right now is a setup that's being created that is about to generate one of the greatest investing opportunities of our lifetime. Certainly one that we haven't seen in decades. And I don't know when the next time we're going to get something like that.
So, as you notice, the markets are exhibiting this bipolar behavior. Now, one day President Trump says about negotiations, the markets fly up, oil flies down. Then, the Iranian regime says, "No, there's no ceasefire; we don't agree." Oil spikes up, markets go down. And every day we have this seesaw of bipolar overreactiveness by the market, which stems from uncertainty. The markets are confused.
But in this video, I'll show you my plan and what smart, intelligent investors are doing right now to set up for what's being created. Unfortunately, most retail investors are not going to see the forest from the trees. They're going to be so consumed with headlines and short-term speculation and fear and greed that they will miss out on what's about to be created, because this is just the beginning, and you ain't see nothing yet.
Now, in this video, if you don't click nothing, if you don't smash nothing, if you don't buy nothing, what I'll show you is how this opportunity is being generated and how smart investors are going to use this to create generational wealth.
And if you watch today's video all the way to the end, you'll find out as well, because I'm not gatekeeping anything. I'm going to give everything away right now, absolutely for free. So, check this out.
There's a very interesting relationship between oil and stocks. A lot of people tend to say that the relationship between bonds and stocks is very important and often misunderstood. And that is true. But the relationship between stocks and oil is probably even more important. And I'll explain why.
When we have a war in the Middle East, like we have right now, what happens is we have interruptions in the supply of oil, specifically in the straight of Hermuz, which houses 20% of the global oil traffic in the world daily.
So, as the straight of Hormos is blocked or closed or blockaded or interrupted, what happens is we have a lot of uncertainty about the flow of global oil, which means prices go up. And if oil prices go up, what happens? Well, we have increased fear of inflation because everything we consume needs oil, needs energy. We need energy to produce goods, to move those goods from point A to point B, etc., etc., etc. So, the higher the oil prices are, the more we have fears of inflation.
And if inflation comes in and hits us when the economy is already being kind of shaky, with bad job numbers, with a lot of macro uncertainty, well, we have an increased risk of recession. And if we have a recession, well, at least a, you know, an elevated risk of a recession, that means that the stock market collapse is now becoming a risk. Now, not certain, but definitely a risk that has to be priced in. So, oil prices can quickly take us down this rabbit hole and bring us to a stock market collapse.
Now, not every oil price spike in history have caused this. In fact, very few. But certainly, when this happens, the risk gets priced in by the stock market because the stock market is very, very future-facing. Whenever we have the smallest, tiniest risk, it's always going to get priced in today based on the absolute worstc case scenario.
And the worst case scenario is what we've seen in the 70s. In the 70s, we had a weak economy. We had inflation, high oil prices, and high interest rates that took us into a massive recession that took years to fix with Paul Vulker and the Fed, etc., etc. This was this likeflationary nightmare of the US economy in the 70s.
And when everybody is right now looking at the situation, the fear is that this may play itself out in 2026. That is the fear that is being priced in by the stock market. Even if we're not even close to this, but the fear and uncertainty will always get priced in first, and then, as we go forward, the stock market will start to slowly deescalate.
The concern is that if oil prices do not come down, if the straight of horm isn't open, and if the prices of oil do not come down, what happens? Well, then the Federal Reserve, which is currently in a quantitative easing cycle, essentially putting more money into the market by lowering the interest rate, right? The Federal Reserve will have to say, "Look, folks, we would love to help the economy and put more money in to prevent us from crashing, but we cannot, because if we actually do not increase rates right now, what's going to happen is that the oil prices that just spiked might bring us back to inflation territory, which we actually just came out of."
So, instead of cutting rates and putting more money into the system, the reaction of the Fed to elevated oil prices, if they become sustainable and long-term, is increasing the rates, just like Paul Vulker did back in the late 70s and the early 80s. And when you increase rates, what happens is that the money supply in the economy goes down. When people have less money, businesses can borrow less money, etc., etc. That starts a recessionary cycle and the stock market crash.
Okay, this is the worst case scenario of the economy. And right now, this uncertainty is being priced in by stocks, and that's why you're seeing this, you know, parabolic spikes one day, then complete crashes the next day. Everything is just chaotic. It's going haywire. This bipolar behavior by the market is a result of this risk getting thrown into the mix.
If you look at what happened since the beginning of 2026, we're now in the end of March. Okay? And in the end of March, what we're seeing is that oil is up 35% because of the war Iran. NASDAQ is down 6%. 6% in a quarter. The annual return of the S&P is 10%, but now it's down 4% in the quarter. So, both tech and the overall stock market broad market index are down 6% and 4%, while oil is spiking. Okay.
Now, this is on top of what I call sluggish macro, because we've seen job numbers not being great before the war started. And right now, what may happen, as I mentioned earlier, is this may cause a pause, a prolonged pause, by the Federal Reserve to not further decrease rates and help the economy by putting more money into the system, and maybe eventually an increase in rates to counter the effect of elevated oil prices. Okay.
As long as oil prices stay elevated for longer, the Fed is locked out from helping the stock market because the Fed cannot reduce interest rates while oil prices go up, because this is an inflationary recipe. When oil prices spike and you decrease rates, you're creating inflation, and the Fed will not be able to do so.
So, for the Fed to help the economy by cutting rates and putting more money into the system, oil prices must come down. And as long as the war continues along, you know, as long as there's no solution in sight, well, the stock market is going to price this in.
So, that is why when Donald Trump puts out a post or a tweet, or whatever they call it these days, and saying, "Well, we have negotiations with the Iranians and we're making great progress." Poof, you're seeing the prices of oil plummeting down.
The next day, the Iranian regime comes out, says the opposite. Oil prices spike. There is an internal geopolitical battle between Trump and the Iranian regime. They want to spike oil prices. He wants to keep them down.
Where does it leave us as smart, long-term investors? We really have three options here, and those are the three options we have right now to choose from.
One would be to keep holding and doing nothing, let it blow over. One would be to buy more, essentially buy the dip. And option number three would be to sell and essentially get out, wait until this whole thing kind of blows over. Wait until the smoke clears, and then go back into the market.
Now, before we choose between these strategies, and by the way, when I'm finished and I'll tell you what I think is the best strategy, I'll also give you something for free. I'll give you a list of my top 15 stocks to buy and hold for the next 10 years.
So, after we're going to do this, I'm going to give you a gift: a free 15 stocks for 10 years list. It's absolutely for free. You're getting it today in this video. So, wait for it.
But before we go through the stocks list, I have to explain to you how my strategy is built. So, for that, we have to see the foundation. And the foundation is very simple.
My main assumption here, before I make a choice, is that I assume, unlike potentially maybe others who think they can, but I assume I have zero ability, 0.0 ability, to predict where the price of stocks are going to be in a month, in year, in six months. I just don't know. Okay.
So, my question is, what is the best strategy without being able to predict what the stock market is going to do? Because if you go across mainstream media right now, well, there's a lot of different experts on it, explaining to you what's going to happen in the month, in the year, giving you predictions, etc., etc., and everybody is free to make predictions.
In fact, in this video, I'll make my prediction about where I think the S&P will be by the end of the year. But those predictions are like opinions, and opinions are like buttholes. Everybody's got one. It's not really enough to formulate a strategy.
So, for strategy, you have to assume you cannot time the market. You cannot predict the market. And if you can't, what is the best thing to do when the market is uncertain and chaotic, is in total state of uncertainty and fear right now, based on the CNN fear and greed index, where it's 16 or 17, which is extreme fear?
So, what do you do in this situation, especially during geopolitical crisis and then certain micro data, etc., etc.?
Over the past 100 years, we have a lot of data on how the pattern or the life cycle of the stock market behaves, and this data is going to shock you. Look over the past 100 years. We're going to look only on data and facts, and we're not going to use any gut feelings.
When you have a gut feeling, go to the bathroom. It has nothing to do with investing. Okay? No gut feeling. No intuition. Just hard data.
So, for the past almost 100 years, since 1932, the average bull market in the US stock market lasted 4.9 years, and the average return of the average bull market is 180%. So, on average, bull markets—a bull market is a time where the stock market goes up—last in America about 5 years and yield about 180% return on the S&P 500.
On the contrary, when we have a bare market, essentially a market that goes down 20% or more, well, that tends to last on average one and a half years, and the damage on average is 35%. So, right there and then, what you can see is there's a massive difference in the length of bare markets and bull markets. So, the stock market is mostly green, and it's mostly up, and it's very seldom that it does this, and even if it does, it's much shortlived than the bull market, and even if it does, it is much less damage than what the benefit you get in this.
Now, if you look at the current setup right now, we have been in the bull market since 2023. So, we've been in the bull market for three and a half years, and so far we yielded about 88%. Okay? So, we're about 50% on the average, and we're still below the average length as well.
So, as it pertains to people who are keep telling you this is year four of a bull market, this cannot continue forever. We're not even at the average, not on length of years, and not on return percentage on the S&P 500. We're not even half on the return. This is not an unusual market we have right now. The fact that we're up for the fourth year in a row and we're up 90% since the last bare market, it's not enough. It's pretty much on par with averages.
Now, the problem is that humans have a bias, and this bias is called, uh, the pain bias. So, if you make a dollar, the great feeling of making a dollar is about half of the horrible feeling it is that losing a dollar. Losing a dollar hurts twice as much as winning a dollar. And that's why this feels more scary than it actually is.
So, for the past 20 years, we have done 16 years of a bull market with 500% upside. In those same 20 years, we had three bare markets: one that lasted two and a half years; one that lasted one and a half years; one that lasted 10 months—49% down, 57% down, 25% down. So, five years in total over the past 20 years, we were in the bare market out of 20. And the negativity was 130%.
So, you can see the difference. Over the past 20 years, it's exactly the same as over the past 100 years. Nothing changed. It is much, much better to bet on green than to bet on red, because this is the higher odds game both on the length of time and the returns.
Now, that's pretty simple to see if you look at this. The statistics in the stock market are pretty simple, right?
If you take out every single day that we had in the stock market and you try to check which one is green—which meaning positive—and which one was red—meaning negative—well, about 54% of days in the stock market historically are green, are good. But if you do it over the course of a year, because 54% of days are green, so that adds up, and it's up, and it's up, and it's up statistically. By the time you do 365 days, 75% of them are green. Because if you have a dice that's uneven, even that 4% unevenness is going to increase the percentage how much you're getting green.
By the time you do it in a decade, 10 years, 95% of decades will be green in the S&P 500. And by the time you do this in 20-year periods, 100% of 20-year periods in history of the stock market of the S&P 500 were green. There is no statistical way, none whatsoever, to lose money over a 20-year period. None whatsoever. Zero, zilch, nada, garnished. Okay?
And that brings me to my next point. I want to show you this.
So, a lot of people will throw at me right now: the loss decade, the so-called loss decade, where we had a crash in the docom 2000 and then in 2008. So, from 2000 to 2010, we really didn't do nothing in the stock market. That's cool, right?
The chances of this happening, according to the data we have over the past decades and decades and decades of data, is about 5% chance. So, yes, this is a high impact event, but an extremely low probability. In fact, we're talking about a 5% chance. Yes, painful as hell, but very low probability.
And even if you actually hit the last decade, but you kept investing for the next 10 years after that, the 20-year period that included the lost decade yielded 350%. Which means that no matter what happens, even if you got on the last decade for 20 years, you will be fine. You will quadruple your money.
But further than that, the last decade created so many opportunities. Microsoft in 2008, 2009—2008 was at $15 per share at that bottom. If you just bought in Microsoft during the last decade, you're now sitting on from $15 to $370. Amazon was at $1.75 in 2009. Now at $212.
The last decade created so many opportunities of buying at the bottom. The S&P 500 in the last decade, 2009, was 730 9x ago. It's now 6600. It is 9x since 2009. This is just math. It shows you that the whole lost decade argument is lack of knowledge and mostly psychological, not based on data or facts.
On top of this, if you look at wars, wars are actually pretty good for stocks. As much as I hate to say it, what you have historically is when the market goes into a war near all-time highs, like we did on the S&P 500, in the first 30 days, you have a huge dip. This is the money-making zone that I keep talking about my academy. In this money-making zone, you double down. You double down, you double down, you double down.
The average is about 30 days. The average of hitting the bottom since the war started is about 30 days. Maybe it takes longer sometimes, maybe a little bit less, but that's the average. In the next 12 months, you're going to go back to zero. So, the normal DCA starts here. And when 18 months from the start of the war, you're going to hit all-time highs statistically.
So, wars pattern-wise always start with a high, 30 days to a bottom, and then a recovery of about a year, year and a half, where you just slowly accumulate and make money. Nothing has changed. Nothing will change. This is not the first or the last war we will get to see.
Yes, wars in the short term will show us a lot of uncertainty, and yes, we just saw how they benefit the market, but smart investors understand that crisis is actually opportunity. Someone famous once said, "Don't let a good crisis go to waste." And I think it's a prime example of that.
If you're smart and if you're calculated, you're not going to panic and run to the hills building a underground bunker. You're going to be investing right now.
If you look at the market, a lot of this risk is already priced in. Oil prices spiked. So, the worst is priced in. Then you have gold basically surging before the war started for the past couple of years. And you had a lot of profit taking in the first quarter of 2026, even before the war was a thing, because people just, you know, do that when they have three years of consistent gains.
So, a lot of the uncertainty is already being priced in by the market at 6600. I'm talking for us about the SP500.
Now, if you look at the global chaos right now, a lot of people misunderstand that it's actually pretty good for the United States, in the US market traditionally have always been a safe haven when you have global chaos. Show me a safer, more stable place to park your money in times of chaos: Russia, China, Iran, South Africa? Sorry, no offense to anybody else, but I'm saying like, where would you park your money?
When there's global chaos, there is huge money flows into the US. Now, the stock market right now is a little bit iffy, sluggish, yes, but it's a midterm year. Every midterm year starts off with a sluggish pattern. It's always been this case.
At the end of the day, in time of global chaos, uncertainty, the United States is the most stable place to park your money, which is why you will see an inflow of global capital to US market of the next 12 months. And war is only going to increase this, especially given the fact that the US dollar is the world's reserve currency and the world's money. And that not going to change in the next couple decades, which means the whole game is rigged in favor of the US financial system. And to bet against it or not to invest in it is an act of insanity in my opinion.
Now, I want to show you this. Okay. Right now, a lot of people talking about, "Well, Tom, what about the straight of Hormuz? It's closed." Yes, the pain will be felt by everyone, including the Iranians, by the way. They're not shipping the same amount of oil than they did before. But guess what? The largest exporter of petroleum is the United States. There is no supply chain interruptions for the United States. Okay. The least disrupted from a supply chain perspective country in the world from the hormos trait is the United States. Also, is the largest exporter of petroleum. High prices don't really hurt the United States. That the thing that people don't understand.
Look, max fee right now is priced. Then extreme fee right now shows us that we're very close to the bottom. And I think that 2026 probably turns out to be a 15 to 25% year. But what if I'm wrong? And there's a good chance I am. We're still going to win. We're still going to win. And this is exactly how. I'll show you. Even if I'm wrong, we're going to win.
So, let's say this is us right now. Right here. We came from 33600 to 6600. From the 2022 bare market to right now, we've doubled, and now we're here at this point. Maybe we go up, maybe we go down. Maybe I'm wrong about this.
Whatever the case may be, if this is the S&P 500, if we go down, we still get to the same point in 2030. Whether we go directly up and the bull market continues or we have a bare market and then we correct upwards, we're still going to end up at the same point in 2030. The only difference is if we go down, we're going to use this to DCA double down, like we did in 2022, like we did in the COVID pandemic. And if we go continuously up in the bull market, we're just going to DCA normally.
There's one condition for this cheat code. One condition only. Okay, I'll show you.
It comprises itself from three elements. Number one, you have to invest in the broad market ETF. At least 40-50% of your portfolio has to be in the S&P 500, because when we're seeing this S&P 500 chart, it is rigged. No financial manager has ever beat the SP 500 over the course of 20 years. It's not possible. It's a cheat code. So, half your portfolio, 40% at minimum, is in the broad market ETF. And by that, I mean the S&P 500. That's part one.
Part two, you have to have great stocks on top of it, because if you don't invest in a great stock, in a generational stock company, it's not going to go up. So, it's not going to help you to DCA double down in a company that's a falling knife. So, it's very important to pick great stocks.
That is why right now, at the bottom of this video, I have a list: my top 15 stocks to buy and hold for the next 10 years. It is free. It is yours. In the description right now, there's a link. Go get it. It's free right now.
But there's number three. If you don't have discipline and conviction, you're not going to be able to hold through the bad times, through the chaos, through the panic. This is super important. This conviction, you have to build conviction. You do that with research. You do that with skills. You do that with surrounding yourself with a community of people who can support you in horrible and bad times. You do that by joining our academy: patreon.com/dommnash. 30,000 members understood this a while ago. We invite you as well. Join us, and I'll see you in the next one.