Transcription
Today's number, guys, is 10. Because it's been almost a decade since we've seen delinquencies look like they do right now. And with all of the events of 2026 so far, could this start to have impacts onto markets?
As stocks hold the key levels and Nvidia does end up bouncing off that 170 zone that we talked about in the previous video, all eyes now turn to the bonds market. And maybe more importantly than this chart, what is going on with credit default swaps when it comes to the AI stocks? Yes, there are some cracks showing and today we need to talk about them, including the big moves on gold and of course oil over the last couple of sessions. Guys, don't go anywhere if you love stocks, commodities, and cryptos. We're talking about everything right now together. See you soon.
Well, welcome back everyone to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson and today we're discussing the macro, what Wall Street's been up to, and of course the key flows and options movements over the last couple of sessions. We had Nvidia bouncing off them all important 170 zone, but guys, we need to kick it off with the debt markets because there's something weird going on and we need to talk about it together.
Now, we'll start off here with this first chart from Joseph Politano over on X. You can go check him out. Also, Daily Chart book. Shout out to them for the share here so that I could see this particular data and bring it to you guys. And you can see here that the data center versus off office office construction has been a very interesting chart over the last couple of years since really the advent of chat GPT. What is the new office guys? Well, it is AI data centers and no one is building offices anymore. And it does bring up the question of is this AI bubble going to pop soon? Is it the real deal? Is it going to hit a bottleneck?
Now you know on this channel I talk about the bottleneck of AI a little bit and that's because I think that most new technologies always have a stepping stone or a hurdle to overcome. Is AI the future? My opinion is yes. A lot of you guys in the comment section agree with that. But it's always about what point in time does something kind of hiccup or some kind of problem occur?
Well, let's talk about the problem in the bonds market. This chart here from Bar Chart at Bar Chart over on X and Sherwood data of course does show the problem that we've been talking about for about two to three months now which is Oracle and their credit default swaps. Basically they're back to the widest level since the 2009 period. Obviously the global financial crisis. Now you might say what's the big deal? Well for a long time huge tech companies were considered the gold standard of debt in the bonds market. And what the bonds market tends to do is it sniffs out problems before they tend to show up in the stock market. So as this chart continues to go up, even though it's dull right now, guys, only barely going up each month here during the 2026 period. What this does tell us is that that someone believes there's risk in the market, particularly around AI. And it's actually brought us to an interesting level where Nvidia and other tech stocks are now actually cheaper in Ford PE than many of the other sectors in the market. Yeah, you wouldn't think that. Yes, tech stocks are actually now cheaper uh by valuation than some of the other markets.
So, how does this circle round? Do we actually need to be concerned just yet? Well, another chart here from Bar Chart, I think it's sourced from Bloomberg, is a debt in default chart here. And this basically shows that there is something weird going on in the markets, particularly around the middle class. So remember, yes, AI bonds are starting to widen up. That's a problem. But at the same time, the middle class in America, and many places around the world, we're starting to struggle, guys. And I'm sure you see it in your families, in your friends, in other people that you know, in society. People are starting to lose their jobs. The Fed obviously has already signaled this is a concern for them and it's why we're possibly looking at further rate cuts this year. The other thing though is that take a look at these overall delinquencies in US loans for housing. 30 days late it's starting to rise up guys and I think that's the concerning one here. 120 plus days late obviously got a lot bigger throughout 2024. And you can see here the data actually is kind of old. So what's actually been happening is it's actually been expanding a little bit more than this. Now I think it's always important to note that all debt is actually starting to show this sign but it's the trajectory that I think is most concerning. If we think about the global financial crisis what tended to happen here was that we saw a spike up in 30 days. We saw of course a widening in 60s as well and then we saw everything else kind of blow out and of course everything ended in this one and 120 plus days. As you can see we were already in the depths of the global financial crisis at that point. So, it's really about tracking this trend this year.
If you like this kind of stuff, remember to subscribe to the channel and hit the bell icon as well. We do share it daily. And of course, we try to keep it in the middle. What that means is we we look at this this information. We obviously are concerned, but at the same time, has it really hit the markets? Do we need to be fearful just yet?
This chart here from Global Markets Investor, uh you can follow him at these links down here below and of course sourced from the Federal Reserve, shows a similar story. auto loans, credit card debt, student loans. Now, we all know student loans are up because of course, yeah, the forgiveness got taken away, but we also are starting to see credit card loans go back up and we're seeing auto loans starting to spike again. Now, is this a problem? Yes, ultimately this is going to be a bit of an issue and it does show usually strain again in the middle class.
So, so far today we've talked about the AI problem. We've got AI data centers becoming, let's say, not a bit of toxic debt in some ways. People aren't liking it as much. We've got the bonds market now putting some risk on that. And we also have had this year Google, remember, going for a 100 year bond, which uh the last time I remember a 100 year bond specifically that just was in the news was actually one from a country. And I remember when that happened, it was pretty much almost near the end of the bonds market. And then we ended up getting a bit of a collapse. And of course, that's where we saw treasuries in 2020 and all those types of things. So, you know, big things like this when it starts to hit the news, as we often say here on the channel, if it's in the press, it's often starting to appear in the price.
S&P 500 sector time. Now, Blue Kurdic put together what we already know, but a very good chart here, which is that in 2025, we had a market that was run by technology. Now, you guys know that actually we were liking a little bit of different stuff. We were liking materials, particularly gold, particularly silver, particularly platinum, palladium, and all of those things. And actually, they they were a bonanza during 2025. But 2026 is similar. Energy has been our favorite for about 3 4 months now in terms of oil services. And I got to say, well done, guys. That's absolute phenomenal work because the community here is on top of it. You guys are doing the cross analysis. I see it, you know, plenty of times in our market masters club. It's pretty amazing that that one plus materials plus staples has really that's the top three by the way has really shown up in the flows. So remember the flows are the key. But the problem here is probably that the financials are not doing very well this year and the tech which was once the strong leader of the bull market is starting to struggle. So this is going to be a story you have to continue watching. Key levels such as 170 on Nvidia need to be watched.
So, we know that AI is starting to cause some problems in the bonds market. That's definitely a canary that we need to pay attention to. But what about what's going on in terms of weighted returns? This one here from Duality Research at Duality Research on X um is pretty big. Now, of course, this one here source from Bloomberg. You can see that software itself has underperformed. Now again, we're actually looking at software from a flow perspective now on the charts because things are starting to look a little bit better, but this is going to be one of those evolving storylines you want to check out, guys.
Do we see, you know, the energy market continuing? Well, with the lights of what just happened, most eyes are on it now. We hit some massive resistance zones that we'll talk about in a moment, but in general, there's a very different trend. And what is really going on right now, I think, is that the tech hardware side, as we call it, the backbone of the AI bubble or the AI movement at this stage is still powering on. So remember, if that's going, generally speaking, the markets are bullish.
Now speaking of bullish, there is a problem zone. And although we did bounce off the 6,800 area, we're still in a rangebound market. Effectively, what we call on this channel a pit, a pullback in time with a sideways price action movement. Now, if we do end up breaking to the upside, what you guys know is that this could cause, you know, some massive movements in terms of, you know, big big movements up and squeezes because you'll see in the options markets, that's going to be important, but we've been struggling to hit it. As you can see here, Blue Curtic says 20 days. So, usually the uh the peak of a market, 7K or 6K or any of these thousand point zones, often we break it pretty quickly. Now, usually what happens, it gets close and then it sells off and then gets close and it sells off and then it breaks through. That's kind of similar to what we've been seeing so far. So, we'll we'll keep watching that one.
Couple of large trades to note. Uh, also just a quick update. I think actually the last video we talked about the second largest energy trade on XLE. I think it was actually cut off. I think it was the 26th. Uh, but regardless, a monster. Um, and also showing up in utilities as well. And I think that one was the second. So again, we had a lot of big trades from the darkpull activity, but I just wanted to correct that. Uh, also you can see here oil big trade coming through number one, uh, right at, as you guessed it, yep, I could see some people taking some profit here. So has Wall Street already said, you know what? Oh, fantastic. We're going to remove some position and then reassess. Often, this is why we say if it's in the press, it's in the price, guys. We've already been seeing oil move for months and then all of a sudden it hits into supply and it's not just this one. Have a look at some other moves here from volume leaders. You can see here the oil and then bang goes straight down and again you can see that that reaction and previously as you can see here October and November of last year what were they doing? They were accumulating a little bit. So just remember when everyone's talking about it often that's when you actually get the hardest trades. Um, it's always about spotting the other things. That's the chart from yesterday by the way.
Now, let's talk short positions because Wall Street has been moving in on some or at least hedge funds have been trying to short the rubbish out of tech for quite some time. Subu trade here put together just the short interest. There is obviously long interest, so they do balance out a little bit here, but this is a potential here for a short squeeze into the future. So, you've got to keep your mind on what's going on with the price action and the flows. Another one that's got a massive amount of short interest on it as well. And this is why Energ has been going so well is look at the monster spike in short interest as we broke through those multi-year highs on energy stocks. No wonder the market squeezed up higher, guys. Take a look. They all tried to short it and that didn't work out so well for them, did it? So, yeah, hedge funds sometimes you want to be with them. Most of the time you don't. Uh, and generally speaking, follow the flows, follow the price action, follow the trend. It's what we're all about here on the channel.
All right, let's now take a look at the S&P 500. We'll begin here with whether the market is still advancing. The advanced decline says it is. The market has held the 67706,800 zone. And of course, we are not through anything to do with the 7K zone yet. 7K plus breakout. Probably going to create a bit of a squeeze, though. Here are the updated options, high low levels. We did test into the 67s in the previous session and it's worth dialing in. So let's have a quick look at the smaller time frames. We'll actually go to 15minut time frame just so you get a bit of an idea. And the market went from making a series of lower lows and lower highs to a slightly higher high. Is it still, you know, just really coming off the support? Yes. Are we out of the problems yet? Probably no. Uh but Nvidia probably holds the key here. So we'll look at that in just a moment.
Let's go to options first up though. 7K 7K 7K. Look at all these massive calls that sit around the $7,000 or the 7,000 point. Also, I don't know who this is, but there's this massive one for the end of this year sitting at 8,000. They're pretty uh they're pretty pretty keen, I think. So, but the main reason we're looking at this is because we now have a 6,900 call wall as well. And this is basically just telling us that the markets might still struggle a little around here. I'm really just looking at two levels, though. If it's 68 and below, okay, it could create a waterfall effect. If it's 7K and above, then we're looking at a squeeze and everything in between there is just basically small price action. And that's why it's a stock selection market that we've been talking about for 4 5 months now versus of course a sec uh versus a index market. You can see here with the massive 7,000 call as well, how many people have positions on that zone. So that's why it's so important to watch it.
Let's now have a look at the cues. Same thing. 600 610 600 610. Same thing we've always been talking about in every previous video, guys. But Nvidia probably is the more interesting one. 200 on a massive amount of calls. And as we talked about 170, 170, 170, you know, this is the big key zone for the bears to try to push through and the bulls to support. And they managed to support Nvidia over the last 24 hours, pushing the stock back up to 182 and holding that 170 floor. So for now the market is holding the floor.
Tesla time 400 being held again that's the floor at the moment for the put so it makes sense and I bit now the old bitcoin moved up a little bit the bit noodle it did move up a little bit over the last 24 hours which is good news of course for bit noodle traders uh but at the same time we have not been able to get through that 39540 zone just yet now the market popped a little bit after hours so we'll see whether we can create a small squeeze here it has It's been a long time since bitcoins look good. So, we'll actually check it on the charts as we go through the video.
All right, let's jump in and talk oil first. I wanted to mention oil because it kind of hit into resistances across the board. If you actually have a look here at Brent, um, which I was looking at during the open, Brent hit directly into what I would expect as a target, previous resistance, previous supply zones. So, it bounced off again. It actually showed itself to us before any of this information dropped about what was happening. and the markets just rallied, rallied, rallied all the way straight up there. And that's why we often say if it's in the press, it's in the price. I kind of feel like, yeah, okay, cool. Oil could go higher, but realistically, that's a big move. And often you see consolidation after this, which I think is why we're getting some of those dark pull trades.
Let's have a look at the NGI stocks. It's a similar thing. Big rally up. Um, obviously you want to look at all different areas of the NG markets. And you can see here, ZOP XO hit into the resistance. So again, a lot of markets crossorrelating with the resistance. And I think the thing that we do differently is I know it's the it's the topic everyone's talking about, but we've been talking about for 4 months. So it's not really a new topic for any of you guys out there. If you're new, sub so you kind of see this stuff. But the main thing is that you see it in the flows. And the flows happened, you know, on this one in January. The flows in oil stocks happened, oil services happened months and months ago. So again, you know, the market tends to be pretty pretty efficient at figuring these things out, I guess. So we're at a bit of a resistance at this point. We're looking for further structure.
What's going on with RK? A little bit of a bounce up 1.8%. Again, this technology kind of side thing we often talk about catalysts. We thought Nvidia could be a catalyst last week. And software stocks as well holding up surprisingly well. So again, there's some movement here in the software stocks. they are starting to look a little bit healthier than they have for a long time. Remember volume also spiking up very cleanly after dropping dropping dropping and this is really the first time we've talked about software properly uh for a long time. So a lot of these tech stocks and software stocks looking okay.
Let's talk Nvidia for a moment. 170 held. Now, the pre-market was a little nasty for Nvidia, of course, but 170 is the major zone, and if we drop that, then we're talking pretty bad stuff because, of course, you can make a case for a head and shoulders pattern, and that would be quite nasty, guys, cuz the head is massive in length. Um, and of course, you would be dropping the most important major stock in the world and dropping the most important sector. So, for now, it does look like we've basically got a trend line up. We've got semiconductors kind of boosting at this stage and yeah, I mean it looks it looks decent across the board. So you can see here, you know, nice little movement to the upside. Um, still holding the trend. And the main thing is, is the backbone holding the trend? Do we therefore need to be worried? Probably not too much if the backbone's holding the trend.
Now, we did mention bonds today. If we do break above on our bond indicator here a little bit higher, I guess that could tell us that there's some risk, but this is slightly delayed. So, I would say that it's probably going to drop a little bit based on what we've just seen in terms of price action. If it spikes up though, it's an early sign. So, even though it's delayed, it is still an early sign that the market is actually freaking out.
Let's now take a look at some other things. We'll go over to gold for a second here. Gold, of course, uh moving up, moving up, moving up. Uh we are now testing and we just tested 5,400 which is of course close to uh the all-time highs and this is basically where I'd expect gold to find a little bit of resistance. Congrats if you've been holding gold again. It's a pretty decent hold for of course geopolitical conflict kind of stuff. Um and that's what's happening here. Silver bounced up, went down. We obviously hit 90 the other day which I thought was a pretty good shortterm goal. Um and and it's basically silver is just kind of hovering around. Now, it's not going to have the same properties as gold. Gold is the oldest currency. Gold is the hedgy kind of one. Silver is a used currency as well. So, it's it's got both properties in it. And that's why we saw the likes of silver, gold, copper kind of fall off a little bit. They're not it's not shocking or anything. It's just this is what happens. A lot of people always think, "Oh, you're going to go buy into all of those because of what happened." Yeah. But the market had been buying them for a little while. So again, it it it's if it's in the press, often it is in the price, guys. There's a reason we have that saying.
The US dollar was an interesting one over the last 24 hours. Actually bounced up. Now, it hasn't broken to the upside yet. So, of course, we're looking at, you know, will we get through 120 in the future or 9928. These are hedge levels that we'll be watching, but nothing much to report there just yet. And obviously, this brings us to the next thing, which is, you know, what's going on in these tech stocks. Nvidia, Nvidia, Nvidia holding that major zone. Um, obviously that's super important. We'll see what happens with that. Tech though as well. Like if we So 170 is super important. If we have a look here at tech, we managed to hold the supports and you're going to see that across the board. You know, you look at MAGS. Okay, MAGs has broken down. Uh, but it's actually finding boosts here. And if it breaks through, let's say the 6430, it's kind of pointing towards the market actually squeezing up. So, this is actually a really key level. I think it's a very important stock. And the way we're actually looking at it is mags versus spy um which will tell us whether this demand, this little area in here is going to hold up because this is a pretty huge area for this combo. And we'll be looking at all these combos to see whether we actually get any buying or any any kind of purchasing or bid or anything like that. Microsoft as well, one of the big software companies obviously falling down. Similar to IGV looking to see whether we find any base in this case.
Let's now move over to Tesla for a second. 400 400 400. Again, no real surprise. There's a bit of a bounce there. Still a series of lower highs. Uh so what we can now do is we can start to bre form of downward trend line. We can also start to talk about probably a moving average that this is selling off. Maybe it's a 25 or something. Um if that breaks then we can talk about strength in it. For now though it's in a downward trend. And do remember this is the most traded zone. So effectively there's a reason why it shorted there. So really the liquidity the steel the one that you want to see is actually a break above 440. That's going to be a pretty big deal.
Now yields were up across the board. So you can see here yields spiked. Uh which a lot of people would think is counterintuitive but money often does go to safe havens. In this case, it's going to US dollars. Um, which does tend to happen quite a lot. So, you've got yields actually spiking up here after almost well actually breaking to new lows on the longer yields, but but not quite, I guess, confirming anything in particular. So, we'll watch that.
Chinese stocks, what's going on there? Well, you can see it has actually broken a head and shoulders towards the downside. I still am overall I think that the pattern still looks bullish on higher time frames, but I wouldn't discount the fact that this could hit 25,000. It's it's kind of in the first little bid buy and and I've got alerts up here just in case. So, we'll keep watching that one very very closely. Anything else that we really looking at, guys, at the moment? Well, of course, we do want to look at the NASDAQ and then we go to crypto. Um, the main thing here on the NASDAQ is are we seeing, you know, a a change of trend or anything negative? No, we've held 24,000 every time. Have we broken through this alert up here? Not yet. Are we still rangebound? The answer is quite simply yes. So whether you're looking at the S&P or the NASDAQ, you're pretty much r you're pretty much rangebound across the board, which pretty much means it's a a stock pickers market.
If we have a look here, uh the Russell actually did a really nice bounce. And that just again shows what we've been talking about, which is that since the Fed's cut last year, the Russell has done better than you'd expect. And that's a broadening pattern, which initially looks good, but actually is a little scary. Another thing I did notice as well is that healthc care stocks actually broke a new weekly close high. So again, very dull market, lots of opportunity, lots of different things. So could healthc care actually be about to to move up? It's another sector that we're obviously looking at. If you want to find out more about, you know, just how we read these charts and stuff, by the way, jump on over to fxevolution.com and join the Market Masters Club and come join the awesome community. I mean, you guys are just awesome. It's a really great place to be and hang out and check it out.
Okay, let's have a look at Bitcoin. So, crypto, crypto, crypto. The main thing is this is a big demand and we obviously talked about the big kind of whips saw here after all of the news of the weekend and this major hold of this 63k. Now we're not through 72 yet which is going to be really more bullish for crypto but certainly a little encouraging. Everything's held barely but it has held. I could make a case for why this was bullish the last 24 hours. We're still in the problem zones though, but the good news is is that the bulls are putting pressure on this thing. So, if you're a bear, is it still technically a bearish chart? Yes. Um, is it, you know, looking better? I think this is a significant thing. 70K is obviously a mental barrier, but I think 72 is probably the key. And we can also use some cross analysis by looking Ethereum. And what we don't see yet is we don't see that Ethereum through 2150 area. So again, Salana, Ethereum, XRP, all of the others, you want to see all of them breaking at the same time. That's that crossorrelation we often talk about on the channel.
So are bonds freaking out? Yeah, a little bit, but really it's seems to be still in specific things. You can see here, high yield junk hasn't activated down. We also haven't seen the B financials break low yet, so we're obviously watching for that to see whether that's a concern. And we also don't have uh any other information from even the financial sector. So the demand is still holding for now.
So to summarize guys, is it okay? Well, the market is still rangebound. The bonds markets are starting to canary a little bit and saying there's a worrying sign here. And of course, we have a totally different market than we did pretty much any year since 22. So why is that important? It starts to think and it's screaming late stage. And late cycle stage markets are abundance for sure, but not in the areas that people think. We're losing momentum. And if it wasn't for semiconductors absolutely ripping, you would have to say there's something very wrong. But at this stage, it's watch, see, follow the flows. Obviously, proceed with caution, proceed with risk management, and it's not a solicitation to do anything in particular in this video, guys. But my general thought process is, you know, don't pay too much attention to your bias and and and what you've fed in terms of the news and the media and everything else. You've got to see it in the flows. And I guess that's that's proven again here just over the last 24 hours. Cooler heads hopefully prevail in the markets and hopefully they prevail everywhere. Thanks so much, guys. You have a fantastic day. Make sure to sub. Make sure to hit the alert and we'll see you in the next one. Bye for now.