Transcription
Is 4,000 the bottom for gold? Let's find out with Gary Wagner, editor of the goldfor.com. We're speaking on Tuesday, July 14th, on the back of a lower than expected CPI print, and we'll get to that in just a minute. What will the Fed do with this new data? How will gold react to interest rates, the Fed, and the future of inflation? Welcome back to the show, Gary. Good to see you.
>> Thank you. It's great to be back and uh exciting times, but it's almost always something that we've got to look at figure out with uh the movement in any asset and gold is no exception. So interesting times and I agree with you. I think that we have at least on a tentative basis formed a bottom or a a definitive level of support at around 4,000. We'll get into detail when we look at some charts.
The uh actual headline CPI was 3.5%. They came out earlier today. 3.8 was the expectation. So the markets were already expecting lower CPI than 4.2 which was the previous month. But 4 3.5 came in much lower than expected. This is important because with the cooler than expected inflation print, uh potentially we're looking at fewer rate hikes later this year. Markets rallied today on the back of lower than expected inflation data. The S&P is up. Um, NASDAQ is up. Gold spike 1.4% which for gold on a single intraday basis is quite significant. Yesterday you and I talked offline. Yesterday gold was down and today seemed to have uh regained most of its losses if not all of its losses. Yesterday Bitcoin is also up 3 and a half%. So risk on day today.
>> Your outlook on inflation. Uh is this you know you were looking at oil as well. you you were telling me uh oil is uh starting to tick back up and of course the inflation data we saw is reflective of last month's economic data. Uh I wonder if the reignition of tensions in the in the Iran um war the straight of Hormuse being closed once more and oil starting to tick back up. I wonder if this 3.5% CPI is a short-lived rep reprieve from inflation or do you see any evidence to suggest that inflation is going to be lower for longer?
Well, right now as long as crude oil is firm, uh we want to look at the dollar and other assets, but crude oil has been a primary factor because in a petroleumbased society that affects everything across the board. And so obviously um the markets are going to be sensitive to an uptick in crude if time permits. We'll take a quick look at a crude chart. And that's definitely been ticking up after forming a bottom uh about a week ago.
>> Are you concerned at all about uh the tensions in Iran uh reigniting and and whether or not that's going to mean higher interest rates?
>> Abs I mean absolutely I'm I'm concerned and laser focused about any activity uh between the US and Iran right now because that is still a titter box. I mean, if you think about it, we had a truce that lasted a very short period of time, and now it's kind of in between a truce and not a truce, but both sides have been uh doing military activity and hitting targets. And that ratchets up that uncertainty factor about geopolitical stability. And that of course can affect gold in a bullish manner, taking it higher. And that's what we're seeing today. Today is reacting mostly on the the inflation news, but I believe always in the back of all of these traders minds is what is going on in Iran.
>> All right, Gary, let's take a look at what is moving gold. So yesterday, I me I mentioned yesterday gold uh went down considerably touching the critical resistance level uh or support uh rather of $4,000. And today we're seeing gold rebound up to 4062 is the latest price of my screen. Gary, is 4,000 the floor for you?
>> Well, I think there's uh more and more data suggesting that. Did you want me to pull up a chart so we can look?
>> Please. Let's take a look at the keys. Yeah, key levels.
>> Okay. So, let's go ahead and blow this up and then I'll blow we'll we'll condense it. But you've got a series of wicks. This is set right at about uh right at about 4,3998. You've got a couple of wicks here, here, and here. But the real bodies, which is the differential between the open and closing price, of course, on a candlestick chart, if it is an upday, meaning it closes above the opening, that's a green candle. The red candles is where it opens at the top of the rectangle and closes at the bottom. You also see very little activity recently of wicks. This today's wick came the low came in it looks like uh right around 390. But the real bodies meaning this is current because that's the top of the green candle. It opened right around 4,000 just above it. The open today was $4,05. It did make a a low but recovered very quickly. So that to me is pretty bullish. Now if we take that and we move this back so that we can see well what was the last time that gold traded to this area and what I noticed is that that that bottom matches here and that's not really a significant bottom. Whereas here which is at about 4,084 that is a significant bottom which is why I will peg resistance based on the action that came back in October 2025 as a potential level. And that's why I've got that red line there to represent resistance. And these series of candles that came in in which the real body, meaning the open and closing price, the wicks are going to be the extreme highs and lows, but if it doesn't close near the high, of course, that can come down, but it's a decent sized candle. Yesterday, we had a what, a $100 selloff. Today we've got about a $55 gain, but the significance is the fact that we are forming this base. Be it short-lived, we don't have a ton of data right here. But this market has come down when you consider it from over 5600 a series of lower highs and then a series of lower lows till we hit this platform. And here we can make a case for either tower bottoms or tweezer bottoms. Meaning you've got the last two days had a low that is significantly close to the lows of the low that first came in, which occurred on June 24th.
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Gary, why is 4,000 significant? Besides a psychologically round number, is there a particular technical reason for why it's very hard to break above and below 4,000 right now?
>> You know what? In the case of gold at 4,000, I really believe it is less technical and more of a psychological landmark. uh any of what I call them the century marks but you know they're $1,000 apart whether it's 2,000 3,000 4,000 those are significant areas that if gold for example when it was trading under it broke well above and when it came back down the lows came in at about $4,60. It then went up and this was the first time that gold actually broke below that former level of support based on these series of bottoms here in November of 2025 when we broke down below it and now it has become an area of resistance. The way I always look at support and resistance is if I look up, I have a uh a ceiling or resistance. And anyone on the second floor looks at the same structure and calls that support. So support and resistance are part and parcel of the same thing. In other words, a break above about $4,080 would represent the potential if it did it on a closing basis and then started to either trade sideways or higher that we actually held really 390 to 4,000 and now we've broken through resistance. Now, we're not there yet. Obviously, if I blow it up, you can see we're not there yet. We've traded down to this area, but the next target should gold um actually enter a sustained rally that we need to overcome is at about $4,076 $4,080. And if that occurs, I believe it will, uh, then 4180 to 4190 just based on these two tops here because when we blow this up, we've had this series of lower highs, lower lows, and it changed when we got this double bottom. And that's the key because if you think about it, gold was on an extended accelerated move to the all-time record high above 5600. And then when it starts to break or correct, and of course this is a multi-month correction, we got a series of lower highs and a series of lower lows. And that's indic I mean that's the textbook definition of a market in a downtrend. Lower highs, lower lows.
>> So what we need to see for confirmation that this bottom is in place is not that it hasn't broken below that. That's only the first step is that it can challenge different areas. Um with the most important one right now occurring roughly at 4180. So you know that's about $120 from here. But a break above that would be significant because our next target when we look is about 4,400. It matches up with this top from November. At the same time, when we look at that, it matches up with this top to a less extent, but this is major resistance here. And then of course these bottoms that come in where I've got a couple of arrows. That's what we would want to see is a sustained rally and a move past, you know, 4,000. Now we're at 4,000 and change. But the real resistance comes in right here at about 4380, call it to 4,400. Not only does it match this top right here, but it matches these bottoms here and here to a lesser extent here and here. So on a technical basis, those are the real levels. Should gold begin to extend this rally. And one, we need to confirm the correction is over. one day doesn't mean uh that we're going to see gold move significantly higher cuz if you look at it as it came down it makes this first of a lower low a low that we haven't seen really since uh September end of September 2025 and it comes up here 4190 and then goes right back down. The significant fact about the way it came back down and moved back up is these series of bottoms of the candlestick. So in this case it is um it opens at the top closes at the bottom. So it is the closing price and today it's the open that matches it and now we need to see it a close above 4106. after that. And these are minor levels, but they are still levels of 4135. And the big level that we want to see if we're going to truly move from a corrective stage back to a rally mode is going to be just below 4200.
>> Gary, does the amount of time a an asset, in this case gold, stay at or above a certain price level, dictate the likelihood that it will either retrace that level or consolidate around that level. For example, if you zoom out on this chart here and go back to the view that we had earlier, you'll see that gold has spent the better half of uh basically all of 2026 above 4,000 and 2 months of 2025 above 4,000. So I would say that it's much more likely that in the future gold will retest 4,000 versus 5,000 uh above which it's only spent less than two months. Um so the amount of time and or duration at or above a level does that indicate anything to you?
>> It indicates uh so we're we're saying that on a tenative basis currently we have really real strong support right around 4,000 is based on the double bottom. But the fact is is that in terms of time, the first low was made on the 23rd day of June and this most recent low came in yesterday, 13th of July and of course right here >> on the uh 14th. So it's significant the longer we see this level hold, we call that building a base. So when it when it makes a major move down, so for example, if we take a look, it it clips back up here and it does stay there for a while, but it's unsustainable. So you just move into a scenario of high, lower high, lower high, lower high. Same with the lows. Low, lower, low, lower, low, lower, low. So we've established that there is good potential. However, as I said, my main area is to look at this, and this is short-term resistance at about 4090. It is based on this bottom that came in at the end of October 2025. If we break above that, the next real target becomes just below 4,200. But right now it's critically important I believe that after challenging and going near this tenative level of support it held. We just need to see a more sustained move follow- through buying over the next couple of days. In a bestcase bullish scenario, we would want to see an effective close. And I believe this is the August futures contract. So it it's priced a little bit difference. I believe the the difference between this and spot is about $8 or $10. But a move on a closing basis above let's say 4185 that would be significant because if it clipped up past here is going to come and retest this area. And if it holds that's one thing. If it if this rally doesn't have that much steam, we'll see it enter really strong resistance at 4190. And that's what we want to determine if we see gold continue to move higher, how or if and how it reacts at about 4180.
>> Gary, what is the significance of how long uh the price level stays at a certain level mean? In other words, so we've got $4,000 gold. Um, and gold has been hovering around $4,000 or above $4,000 for all of 2026. It spent 2 months in 2025, above $4,000, but it's only spent 2 months or so above $5,000. And so, instinctively, I would look at this history and say to myself, well, if gold ever goes below $4,000, it has a higher chance of retracing 4,000 than 5,000. Does that logic make sense to you? If you look at the duration of time that an asset like gold stays around a certain price as an indicator of anything.
>> Absolutely. So for example when we look at the selloff that began above 5600 these series of lower highs low lower low. The fact that it came in on each occasion in which it sold off we saw a move. For example, on the way down, that was a lower low than the previous low. A lower low and a lower low. So now what we need to see is if in fact we're looking at a significant price level in which the multitude of hedgers, traders, banks, all of those involved in buying or selling gold believe that this level at 4,000 is structurally a good value to accumulate. That's what creates the support level. It's when there are more buyers and sellers, obviously. And the fact of the matter is we had significant levels of lower lows until we got to about 4,000. And now we're seeing an extended period of time in which gold has maintained a level just above that. And now the question becomes if it is going to move higher. We've got significant resistance at about 4190. How would it react at that price point? That of course is still a couple of hund about less than a 200, but over uh $100 to go.
>> That's the significant area should gold continue to move higher. However, we haven't gotten true confirmation that a bottom has set in. Because if you look at how we've seen it in the past, the market would trade to a low and then stay at these new highs for a period before tracking lower. In this case, it was a higher low than the previous low, but that would soon deteriorate as we saw gold move down this channel from effectively, I'm going to just say 5,500 to 4,000. So why while this today's move is significant, it's only the beginning. There's no confirmation that a bottom is in place. The only thing is we didn't see a lower low and that's good. But it still has to move up a couple of levels 4140 with the important one right at around 4200. So a significant ways away when you look at gold at 60. So, we've got to see really a $140 move and then it sustain above that before we can confidently on a technical basis say that gold has found a bottom here. We can't identify a bottom as a as a technician except with the exception of looking at recent lows or highs that came in that match that. So, we have an idea that this is an area of potential support. We don't really get that in gold because if I go back really potential support comes in between call it 4930 and 4960. So we're just above that and so I'm not ready to say okay gold has found a base is going to move higher. I really need to see how it reacts if it moves higher and breaks above $4,190.
Okay. It looks like the speed at which gold has gone up is mirrored by the speed at which it has gone down. Any significance there?
Well, that's just how I've got this chart, how far we're looking back. Because when we look back, the significant high came in in October 2025 at around call it 4380. And then this is the significant bottom that comes in around 3930 3940 right in here. And the retest of that level recently is actually above these lows that came in. So all things being equal, this former level of support will become a level of support and and then we want to look at a series of highs that came in 4190 if it continues to move higher 43 and this top at 45 uh 4500. If we see gold regain some of the bullish momentum that it had up until it hit this record all-time record high, um we're going to need to see a move really above 4200 on a technical basis. And now granted that's quite far from where we're at now at at 4,60, but that's a significant level is that we see a higher high than the previous high because we can see that all the way down during this correction, we had a series of lower highs and it never deviated from that lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low. if we're going to break that cycle. In other words, if this is the correction we're seeing from above 5600 down to 4,000, so a $1600 decline per troy ounce, we really cannot say that with any real confidence until we break above 4180. We will also look at this bottom that comes in which is right above current pricing at about 480 and and gold's trading at 460 50 60.
>> Mhm. If someone were to ask you, well Gary, is gold in a long-term bull market or a long-term bare market? How would you answer that question?
>> Well, I mean right now it is in a correction. whether or not that correction is a pivot from the overall bullish demeanor that gold had or a real correction. In other words, a move from 56 down to 4,000 is significant, but it is an acceptable correction. Let's go ahead and put a fib retracement in here so we can see that we go from there down to about here. The real level that uh [clears throat] I'm sorry, the real level that we want to see it take out is at around 4,300. And that's just a 23.6% retracement of this all-time record high to the lows. So, we want to see it overcome certain areas. And 4,300 is what it's coming at as the first level. So even though we have minor resistance at call it 4,200 that is obviously what it gold would need to take out if it's forming a base and moving higher. But we really want to see if it can challenge this former lower high back then because then what we get is a series of lower highs, lower lows, forms a base or I'll call it cower bottoms, but it's significantly it's an area in which it gold has tested 4,000 on multiple occasions and either stayed above it, never broke below this this key area that we're labeling as support. [snorts] We'd want to see it go above 4200. But the real test if it's going to get bullish is we want to start seeing a series of higher highs rather than lower highs as we saw here.
>> All the way up you had higher highs.
>> Okay. Finally, the um prior history of gold falling from their tops from its tops in 2011 and 1980. Would that serve as a useful guidepost as to how much gold should fall in this bull cycle at all?
>> You know, I I was looking in that the other day, but it's all it's all really contingent on what's driving gold higher or lower. So, if you look back at October 2011, this was that peak that came in at 1900. At that point, a new all-time record high. Then it traded between 1,900 and about 1,500 until it broke. And then when it broke, it went down to about 1,020. Here it's showing it at roughly uh 1,085. But the bottom came in right here at 1,044. And I I remember this time well because it was in February of 2016 that we got our first reports that George Soros was heavily accumulating gold. Some of the major players in there were buying and that did turn out to be the bottom. It was a a long road, but it topped out at a certain area. 2000 was definitely resistance. And then this final higher low which came in at around $1,850. And look at the tack of this spike. In other words, the rallies here were subtle. It took time to move higher. Here we had a huge spike from $1,800 virtually to about 3,400. It had resistance here, but when it broke above that, we had significant periods of higher highs, higher highs, higher highs until it hit the apex, which is the all-time record high. So, we haven't seen it actually do anything but form a series of lower lows up until now. And I'm only referencing from the all-time record high to current pricing and this prolonged time period in which it seems to find tenative support at around $4,000.
>> Okay. Excellent. Thank you very much, Gary. Uh ultimately then your conclusion from the technical analysis we've done today, um how would you be trading the current environment?
Well, it's certainly not time to continue to be bearish and and look to uh just want to move this and look to um and look to continue selling. I think that the fact that it formed a base here, it's going to try to challenge a new level on the upside with the major area being at around 4190. and the fact that's about 130 from current pricing. So shortterm, I would look for gold to continue to track higher. If in fact we're correct, and it does, I would look at $4,190 as an area where there is potential resistance. So, if it clips up, as we saw on the way down, it trades about 4,50 and then it tracks to a series of um higher highs, a series of higher closes until this red candle. It opened right at the same point but then it closed lower and that's when we saw this significant final leg I'll call it of the correction because recently meaning from in terms of in terms of time from about the last week in June to current pricing it has formed a significant bottom if it this is only one day if we see further selling pressure could easily go and challenge 4,3960 and then about 3935. However, if we see multiple higher highs from this level moving forward, this would be the target we would want to see gold track to before being able to with any confidence say that this long extended correction is over.
Yeah, >> you know, and the other thing is that when you look at these bottoms here, there's time has gone by, but then time went by back in May in which we saw it come down and then start to get a series of real bodies with the exception of this one that were above 4,400. But when it broke through that price point on the 5th of June, it did so with a vengeance first to this low here. Here, I'll go by the wicks. So, the low was about 4,60, then a lower high, then a lower low, lower high, and our current low that came in yesterday. So, would I be an excited bullish player? No. There's the potential for the bearish momentum to continue, but there is an opportunity and I believe it's because one, >> we see some activity roughly in this area that could be significant support. In other words, if it continue to fall, I don't see gold going below uh 3920. I think that >> this set of bonds would be where we have really strong support and we could see it move higher, but we need to see it break above 4190 before we can say with any confidence on a technical basis, gold has finished its correction and moved back into a bullish demeanor in which we'll see a series of higher highs and higher lows.
>> Great. Thank you so much, Gary. appreciate your time. Tell us where we can find your work.
>> Well, thanks so much. Um, you can always find us at the goldfor.com on our YouTube channel as well as our dedicated website, the goldfor.com. We offer all of the articles that we do and the videos on a delayed basis that we put on to the site where those interested can check out what I've said in recent weeks and get an idea. if you think it's something that would be of real value to get my real time daily analysis our premium account and the main thing is does it give you value and you can determine that without investing in our site by just looking at it seeing what we're doing and you'll get a real sense of whether or not the information we provide is going to provide you the trader or investor investor with uh value. If you can't make money off of it, we don't think you should be, you know, it's not something you should consider, but if you do see value, at least consider it. But goldforcast.com.
>> All right. Thank you so much, Gary. We'll put the links down below, so make sure to follow Gary there. See you next time, Gary. Take care for now.
>> Thanks so much for having me. Have a great day.
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