Transcription
Very productive day on what was supposed to be a very quiet day, coming over that rebalancing that we went over in Saturday's video. There's a lot here. Most important thing is how we held the 55. Take a look at the NDX. So, if we take a look here, we have the doji, and then we couldn't even get to the low of that before reversing and closing at the high.
There was a key level here, and the most important thing about today is these levels on the NQ, which is the futures market, were just absolutely nailed. We actually went through it in the public pre-market. Let's take a look at that. Most traders are reacting to the institutional levels. What we're trying to get you to do here is to know what they're doing ahead of time.
Subscribe. Click all notifications. What we go over here is timely by hitting the bell. You don't get it after retail is already in. The important thing is you get the information, education that you need. Subscribe. Let's get to it. You can see these levels and how they worked absolutely perfectly today. I'm going to show you exactly how we drew these. And we did them again publicly pre-market. So, even if you can't make the pre-markets, they're supposed to start at 8:15. They usually start around 8:30. And it really was very simple.
The very first thing we did was just go to here on the one-minute chart, and I'm showing you how to do this so that you can do it for yourself. The whole purpose of me doing these videos is so that people can learn how to do this stuff. So, if you go here Monday at 9:30, you're going to go back to Sunday, and then we're going to see this huge bar and this huge rip because once again, we have world peace. And we're just going to drop it there like it's hot, like the kids say. And then the next thing we're going to do is we're going to go back one week and on a 15-minute chart, that's going to take us right to here. And then all we're going to do is just put another volume profile right there. So now we've have two over there. We'd have a major one, which would be going back further, and that would be major because you have more data over a period of time. Then you have a minor one, which is going to just be Sunday, right? Major, minor, it's not rocket science.
And you can see that once we broke the one, and we actually did this live in the community today. Once we broke the one here, and you could see that it couldn't hold, it became clear that this other one was going to be our target. And once we understood that, we knew exactly where we had to go to. And then if we were going to hold there, which we thought, then that's where we wanted to go long. And that's exactly what we did today. And it made a lot of sense. And it wasn't just about buying the NQ, it was buying the semis that we wanted to buy. Just let it all burn. And it's not really rocket science what they did to people again today. They just absolutely trashed retail. Said, "You better get out. You better buy healthcare. Go buy the Mag 7." And then they're like, "Okay, we're going to buy semis." And then institutions just piled back in. And then everyone's in Mag 7 and healthcare. I'm wondering what the heck just happened as they wait for the great rotation.
Then we came right back up to this high area up in here. And you can see how we just really weren't able to break that. Now, whether we get through that tonight or tomorrow, it really is going to be dependent upon Asia. But there's a couple other areas here that you could also look at. I like using pain points on VWAP. So this long bar down, if I turn that into a 4-hour real quick, and then I just go to that pain point and drop it there. And then of course, you have this point up here, which is going to be another pain point. And you just want to see, it would have been better if it just clicked on there. There we go. Yay. And let me just make sure it's on the right bar. Yep. And then we're going to drop it here to a five. And then you're going to see that they're roughly both in the same area. But what they're doing is, when you got there, you could see that we've been rejecting this up the peak before flipped, then became a rejection area all in here. And then what did it do today? Well, when we got up into here, the very first thing we did this morning, if you knew that these were here, and we went over it again publicly pre-market, soon as you hit it, that was it. And then what happened? Hit it, rejection, and then you had support here with this point of control. And then from there, up, down, and then that was it. It just ripped. Once you got over that, you had pretty much blue skies above.
So that's how we nailed the level today. And if you want to watch that again, it took me two minutes to explain how to do it. And now you can go ahead and do it for yourself. If you went and looked at the S&P, you're going to see something very similar. And I would suggest that you do it with the futures market only because the futures market is more consistent and you have all the data from Asia and the markets overnight and all the liquidity. You mark off the peak. Where'd we get to? Peak rejection. Peak over. Yay! Everything's great. Huzzah! Wham! Matumbboed. Right, that's the end of that. Where we close? Right on it. Where we close? Point of control, value high of the more major levels, right? Actually, that's the minor level, isn't it? So, let's just make sure that because I think I misspoke. So, let me just see. That's the minor level, right? Yep. That's the minor level. That's the major level. So, we're right on this area and we have to watch that. And it kind of, you know, it's not really rocket science to put you right there at that 7500 area and you really saw that rebalance kind of kick in where everybody thought we were going to zig and we zagged and it was pretty obvious too.
Let's just show you. So if you take a look at the so today, and we'll just start with the semis. We'll start with the SOX. Really what happened was again, they just puked everything out for 45 minutes. Scared the living Jesus out of retail. This is it. It's really going to break. Okay. All right. They're trading at eight times, nine times earnings, guys. And then all of a sudden, bam, you just you just turned around and ripped. Not only did you rip, some of these names are breaking out, ripping people's faces off. Not just we reversed and you got flim-flammed. And you did get flim-flammed today if you didn't have a game plan. But some of these are just face rippers like KAC, AAT, Lamb Research, ASML. These are all the capital equipment manufacturers. You know, when companies come out and say they're going to put about a trillion dollars into capital equipment manufacturers, you might want to look at capital equipment manufacturers. I know that's a really hard concept, but like super simple. If someone says they're going to do something, they're probably going to do it, right? Or at least those stocks are going to move. And that's exactly what happened today.
These are not the easiest names to trade. So, I do find it easier to trade things like SOXL. Those everyone has to make their own decisions. Some people like trading this EUV. It's not really the cat's pajamas for me. It's too thin. But you can see these things. And then we just go back to our old friend DM that was supposed to break down. All it did was undercut here, flush everybody, and then rip. Do the mother of all liquidity grabs. And then break the 22, breaks the 22, rips, breaks the 22, rips, breaks the 22, rips. Mikey at Twitter's telling you it's over. Breaks the 22, rips. Okay, Mikey's wrong yet again. Poor Mikey. Hot pockets forever.
So if we sit and take a look at that, we could use that 6647 as a level and then use that level going forward as possibly some point of support. But you should do what you're comfortable with. If you take a look at what happened with Micron today, you came down to the 22 and you bounced. I don't know if it's ever done that before. So let's just take a look. Hits the 22 and bounces. Near the 22 and bounces. Hits the 22 and bounces. So it's done that before. We take a look at SanDisk. It's ever done it before. 22 bounces. Oh, look. It hit the 22 and it bounced. Shocker. So when we see this over and over again, maybe we got to get out of the rhetoric of the sky is falling and realizing that the majority of that rhetoric is probably done by institutions that are pulling the flim-flam on us, right? And maybe we just use our own heads and understand that when these companies are trading at 8, nine times earnings and we're trying to predict the end of the world, that's probably not the spot that we want to be in. If we're on the same side of the boat as everybody else, that's probably not where we want to be.
But overall, we were sold the bill of goods today. And I think that bill of goods goes into healthcare. Now, healthcare, yeah, it's up today, but did it move? Did it really like move like it did on Friday? No. Everybody was waiting to get into the healthcare names because that was the sector that was going to move. We saw the same thing with the MAG side of the trade today where all of a sudden they're piling into Netflix. And this was one that I really like. But that's a rejection. We got right to the 12 and rejected, 12 rejected, 12 rejected over and over again. So when these things tell you who they are, 12 rejected, got through it once, 22 mumbo. And when they tell you who they are, just listen to them. Like don't say, "Well, no, the market's wrong." The market's never wrong. We are.
So when we see that, take a look at this Amazon. Everybody got to get an Amazon. What happens? And I like the Amazon chart today. I thought it was perfect. I'm like, man, we have this kind of tweezer bottom here. We finally popped. We had huge volume and then we're up. Look at us. We're the best. We're the bee's knees. Wham. What happened today? Down 10. So what are they doing? They're rotating. And they're rotating back into semiconductors. So, if you look at some of these moves today, it's pretty darn obvious. I've got thousands of levels marked off, but got to the 22, tested, closed at highs of the day. Retail pukes, institutions buy, and we can see this pattern over and over again.
Take a look at ARM. This was hysterical. We were at $300 today. We closed up $43. They completely flushed everybody out. Came right to this level. I don't even know if you got to the flush. You didn't. You came right down to it. Flushed everybody out. Let me save everyone a bunch of time because what the comments are going to say, light volume. If I make 40 points on a stock, do I care that it's light volume? Is that something that like I know I made a lot of money today, but I did it on light volume. Like, does that affect your P&L? I'm just going to be curious for the people that are going to comment below that, but it's light volume. So saved you a bunch of time there.
If you take a look at what's going on with Marvel, light volume, and you can see how we undercut right here to 249 and then we closed what? Back over the 22. Hit the 22 and held. So maybe we should use these as guides, right? Maybe that would be a good idea. I use a 12, a 22, and a 55. You should use what you're comfortable with. So when we look at this, what is it telling us? I watched a bunch of people get involved in IGV today. They're chasing the Barry Microsoft trade. I'm going to say the same thing I said on Saturday, and I would really watch Saturday's videos, guys. Saturday videos. I put a lot of time into the Monday through Thursday. I do as well, but they're more rift. Saturdays are pretty, they're pretty in-depth because I have the time to do the deep dives. You know, I have all of Friday because I don't do one on Friday. But, you know, there's two ways to trade this market. Short-term, meaning 1 to 3 days, or long-term, 3 months to a year. If Barry's going out there and he's buying Microsoft, he's saying, "I'm buying leaps out to 2027." That's not really your signal to go out there and buy weekly out-of-the-money calls, right? So, you have to look at the trade that they're doing and then see if it fits. If you're going to follow along, you have to see if it fits with what you think.
I had a lot of smart people. I'll give you one today. I got a lot of smart people reached out to me about this huge AVGO trade that went off and someone's trying to buy thousands and thousands of calls. And the first thing that stuck out to me was, I wouldn't touch this with a 10-ft pole. I can't get over the 55. I missed my guidance on the TPU here lower. And then look what they're doing to the stock. So just because someone has a lot of money doesn't mean they're right on every single thing that they're doing. And I think that this is very important.
There was another bright spot in the market that I'd like to spend some time on there. I think there were two actually besides semiconductors. I think you have to look at this for what it was today. And you had what I would say is more of, I have fresh cash. What names are undervalued that I want to buy? So when I say that Micron's undervalued, you guys are going to like poo it. But if you go and look at Micron and the PE of Micron now versus the PE of Micron a year ago. By the way, Micron made more money in a quarter than Nvidia made last year. But you know, again, you should do what you're comfortable with.
So if we take a look at this, someone asked me once on one of the a comment like, "Do I have to be snarky?" I don't think I'm snarky. I think I'm just trying to get to the point, save you guys a ton of time. So yeah, I guess I do have to be snarky sometimes. But the point that I'm getting at here is like, these things are still cheap. So, if an institution's out there and saying, "Where can I buy the highest growth rate out there with the cheapest PE?" It's these memory names. And I get it. I look, believe me, I get it. There's nothing more frustrating than when you have massive positions in these things at like 50 or 300 and you're like, "Well, I sold it, so now I can't get back because of my ego." Your ego doesn't pay your Visa bill. Get over it. You have to find a way back in the trade, right? You have to find a way to get back in trades when you're wrong. Just admit you're wrong and move forward. It's just so much easier than just saying, "No, I'm going to predict the top." It's exhausting. I'm exhausted talking about it.
So, the other thing that I could say is like, do we want to trade SOXL again? The problem with trading SOXL now is once it goes up, it they just reset daily. So, just because the stock starts hitting highs again, when it does hit highs again, and the SOX is going to hit highs again, does not mean that SOXL is going to hit highs again because of the way that's calibrated, right? And that's really important to get. So, I do think you can use that as a vehicle, but overall, I think that you're better off looking at these names like memory really lagged today until the end of the day. But then what does that really tell us if memory is lagging to the end of the day, right? So like if we look at memory and we look at the high jinks that was played on us, right? We had a blowout earnings, but nobody wants to own a company that's earning billions and billions of dollars with 83%, you know, gross margins. Okay? And then what did they do today? Like it's just textbook. What did they do today? They took it back to the pre-earnings level. They flim-flammed everybody up over and it's textbook stuff, guys. Like undercut, over, retest, goes. Like literally undercut, over, retest, goes. Like these were no-brainers, some of these trades today.
And the problem that people run into from a trading side, and we're going to get under the education for a little bit, is just the fact that you're not prepped. And that's why you're coming in the market and you're like a cat in a hot tin roof. If you're coming in and you're prepped and you're like, "Well, I'm going to watch the low, the previous low of the earnings level and see if we bounce." like that person that came in prepped like that and then they're watching this build. They made money when this thing finally made a decision and their target might have been the previous close and then it doesn't get there and then they have a decision to make, right? Just like the person that came in and was marked off their levels and knew like, "Oh, hey, I want to see if we got down here. I'm interested." You got right to it. Look at where we closed. It just happened to close where I mean literally on Friday's open. Like it's not rocket science. So, I think that this is really important to get. You want to prep before you come in for the day.
If you look at something like SanDisk, you're going to see something very similar. Here's the low. You break the low. What happens? End of day. We start that cascade. Where'd we get to? Mark off the previous close, test, retest, up, and then goes and a day. And then what happens? So, retail sold, institutions bought. Happening over and over again. Friday was the rebalance. And the rebalance is meant to throw us off. That we're supposed to think that we're supposed to be out of these names because the pension funds blew out. And what's going to happen is you're going to come into next week after we're done this short week because we're off on Friday. And by the way, you have Non-Farm Payrolls on Thursday, which will be big. And then we're going to have to regroup, right? And that's when everybody's going to be wondering what the heck they just did. That's where my head is.
What could you look at tonight that could set you up for tomorrow? Cool. I'm glad you asked. The very first thing you want to watch for those that watch the overnight markets, just watch EWI. We were up considerably on the NASDAQ last night. And if you look at at NASDAQ futures, we're going to go to this on a one-minute and I'm going to show you this because then you can do this for yourself. And what you're doing is, what was this? This Monday. What's that for? Hold on one second. So let's go to. All right. So here's Sunday and we just absolutely ripped. And then you'll see right in here when they start getting access to our markets, Asia around 8:00 and that's when you see the overnight markets. And what happened? We just fell apart and then they just grinded us higher. So Asia wound up selling the memory names and wound up selling tech right off the open. Okay, just like retail, but Asia retail. So tonight, if you come in and you see that again, you'll know. If you come in tonight around 8:00 or tomorrow morning and you see EWI is up, that means that Korea is buying again. And if they're buying again, then that means overnight Tuesday night, barring some kind of news or whatever, you know, off again, on again with world peace, then that could be something else that we have to look at. And I think that is really important why it's on my mind.
If you are on the list to get into the community, start looking for an email next week after July 4th weekend because it will open up for a period of time and then it'll be closed to September. But the link's in the description. The link will be posted tonight in the pinned comments as well. So it just takes me time to get through everybody because I do onboarding calls myself. So for whatever. All right, let's go. So what does this mean for us? So now you have that to watch. What do I think about DRAM? Do I am I worried that China is going to do DRAM? Am I worried that AOC is going to break up Apple? Not particularly. No. And I think that when you look at this, you have to realize like we got to the 55 and got Matumbbo. And I'm not saying that we're not going to see these things possibly hold because there's two other things I really want to get into with you guys tonight that I think are fascinating. It's not that they're not going to hold, but today they failed and they rolled right back in the semiconductors and they didn't even blink an eye about it and they don't even feel bad about what they did to us. It's exactly what they did.
So when these things came down, it provided a great opportunity. If you are at savvy with options and you're not selling puts right now, I can't help you. Like it's probably the best environment to sell puts I've seen in five or seven years. It's pretty crazy right now, the premium that's in the market. So I'm doing a lot of that. I I'm almost been doing more of that than shares right now because of how silly it is. Today the AMD, this came all the way back to that 500 level down in here. And as soon as it got there, we sold the 500s for 15 bucks, closed them at four, you know, and people were like, "Well, you could have just bought the stock." Yeah, of course. But, you know, does anyone know that's going to happen? I mean, it's a monster move. And I'm fine with it, man, because I'll just let them bleed out. It's a simple trade. Very simple trade. And you can do a heck of a lot more of them than you can shares, frankly, based upon the delta. So, makes a lot of sense right now.
The other thing that's crazy to me, we did it with SanDisk. I came in selling I had sold puts on SanDisk and the 2000s and I think I did them for like 85 and then what I was doing when it started to break is I bought the 1900s, the puts, and then I just let it fall apart and then we closed the 1900s but the whole way down I was adding to the 2000s and then adding to the 1900s. So, I was like net short the stock and then when it finally leveled off, I closed the puts and then stayed long all the other 2000s and then overnight cuz I had a bunch of them. I I'm just concerned. So, I just married the 1900s back to the trade. But this had a move. I think the puts, the 2000s at one point today were 155, something like that. I think they closed at 75 or 80. I mean, pretty, there's pretty significant moves for guys that know what they're doing and girls that know what they're doing in that market right now. It's not usually that as we'll refer to it, juicy. This one's a little longer tonight and I try to keep these a little shorter because of what's going on, but I think we should go through the MSTR because I think this is super interesting.
So, every Monday 8 a.m. he files an 8K, how much stock he's selling, what he's doing. Um, and it looks to me like he's authorizing a billion dollars to go out and buy STRC. So, for those that are short the STRC, yeah, that's definitely a a pickle for them in my opinion. Like, wow. I don't know. You know, I don't know, man. If he's going to go out there and buy this in the open market, I don't know that, you know, trying to bet against him right now is the best move. Based upon that, I have to be candid. I'm really surprised that's all it moved. And, you know, yeah, you're up $10, but the whole crux of this is STRC is the problem. So, I'm actually wondering why it's not up more. There's a lot of buying there. And people just might not, you know, the whole reason Bitcoin works for him and these like STRC works is because of the trust factor. And if people are trepidatious about that, it's an issue. And it spilled over even to this SATA and you know, this thing went to 80, now you're back at 91. So that was the first thing that I thought was super interesting.
The other thing that people are starting to realize is that these are notes from the community. Let me clean them off. But the next thing people are starting to realize about SpaceX is you're about to go in the NDX 100 July 7th. 50 has not been broken. Now you've got a higher high coming off of this. And to me, when you have that kind of buying, it's definitely something to pay attention to. I would just say that the IPO VWAP still is around that 174 level. So, you probably want to watch that. I would think peak's going to be close to that, but yeah, a little higher around that 180 level. So, you still have some stuff here to deal with, but I find this really very interesting because when that gets added, and that's why these names move the way that they did. So, you're seeing names like the whole UFO group move today. And a lot of it has to do with the fact that the supply of SpaceX is going to be taken out of the market because of the mechanical buying which is going to drive the prices up, supply and demand. Simple enough, right?
But if we really look at this, you saw other names rock like ASML. A lot of that had to do with IRDM being bought by Rocket Labs. I think this was a really good move by them candidly. Rocket Labs bought IRDM. They're using stock and cash. IDM has an entire full network. They're cash flow positive. They're paying dividends. Like they literally bought cash flow. It's a really smart move for Rocket Labs. The deal is at 55 and it's collared. So no matter what happens, Irdm's getting 55. But what's even like more interesting about this is I think that if people want exposure to Rocket Labs, they're just going to buy Irdm. Then they can just kind of figure it out from there as to what they're going to do. But what's so interesting, if Idm drops down, but here's what's so interesting about this. If we take a look at something like Rocket Labs, you can see it's moving up again. Then ASML is ripping because of the way they evaluated Irdm and ASML is in that field as well. So then that gave you like a really juicy squeeze today. There's that word again, juicy. So there it is. Can't ring take that back, can I? Rung that bell.
So we want to watch that 55 today cuz you ran right into it. Do I feel the need that I have to own that stuff overnight? Not really. Where I think this is going, where I think the thing that you need to watch tomorrow and I think people are going to pick it up. I do think that you can see some rotation back into the space stuff if as soon as they take out these this money out and they put it into the NDX, but I really thought that this was a call that got missed. And you're going to be like, "What are you talking about? They're up a lot." The fact that these models that are coming out are saying, "Oh, we can find all the cybersecurity issues." Yeah. Europe saying, "No, you can't." And Europe like Deutsch Telecom dealing with like PNW crowd, some of these upgrades today. I don't think people understand this move yet. We had a huge trade in CrowdStrike. We did exceptionally well with it. But from what I'm gathering, and I'm going to spend more time on it in Saturday's deep dive, I I really think that these have some these things going to have big legs. I think that AI for places is going to create more issues on a cybersecurity side, then it's just going to erase them because you're expecting everyone to be a good actor and we all know that's not the case. So, we have to watch this. But I really like the way that these stocks acted today and I think there's more behind this. That's it.