Transcription
Recording going and one sec. Get the screen shared. Okay. Still sounds sick. Yeah. Yeah, I know. I know. I was uh this weekend sucked. I was um incapacitated. It was nice. I got outside yesterday, got some fresh air. I was good. Um went to like a uh outdoor festival, uh I don't know what you call it, but a bunch of like popup craft stores and stuff. And uh we did that with the family. It was nice to get outside. Did a big walk around this um lake that it was uh uh took place at and like by the end of the walk I was like absolutely winded, but then I started feeling I feel better today. Like upon waking up, I definitely feel a lot better. Um, but there's just uh my body is right now, it's a the the energy economy in my body right now is operating on a deficit. So I woke up today and I was like eager that I was happy that I felt somewhat good, you know, and I I think I took that uh signal and acted a little bit early on it. I went to the gym and I think I I set myself back a little bit. Uh, so I did like really light work and I'm talking like just some um stairmaster, bike, and elliptical, and I had to leave after like 30 minutes cuz I don't know, I I just felt like jello. So yeah, clearly over the last few days, um, you know, combination of just uh probably I guess glycogen levels and electrolytes being depleted. Need to uh ease back into it. Co-worker of mine said male flu is worse than pregnancy. Yeah, it's a there's an ongoing joke that when women have give birth, it's their first time to experience what a man feels like when he gets a cold. And I guess that's all I really have. I have just the common, you know, virus. Uh I took a a flu test, flu test AB, COVID. I figured what the hell, like we still had them in our house and uh nothing came up. But yeah, it sucks to um feel, I guess, a certain level of like a baseline level of vigor and strength and clarity and then to not have that. Terrible.
Women on the other hand, well, one, higher testosterone levels, I believe, have an impact on your immune system. Um, so it's more difficult for the body the more muscle and testosterone you have. And then two, one of the edges that women have is that they once a month for, you know, a few days, they experience uh a shitty period, right? Technically a shitty period, right? But they have a period. They go through their menstrual cycle. Um, so they're used to feeling uh somewhat um out of sorts. I am like hyperfocused on my my uh overall state so often and hypervigilant about things that when I feel slightly depressed off of my norm or when I feel slightly sick, uh I I place a lot of focus on it and probably end up uh magnifying it. But anyhow, yeah.
All right. Um, yeah. So uh how was everyone's weekend? How was everyone's weekend? We'll get get into things kind of slowly because I am feeling like um the uh the economy of energy right now does not not include my ability to uh put together thoughts, keep my wits, and uh do anything that is sharp. Tame didn't trade. Nice. Yeah, interesting um interesting session yesterday for BTC. Swept uh weekend highs. Swept weekend lows first and then swept weekend highs. 16 hours of poker. Well done. Well done. Yeah. All right. Well, let's take a look at uh cut up a whole ribeye section for the first time. That's awesome. I actually had some ribeye over the weekend. Grilled a ribeye. I hadn't had some red meat in uh like a month. No reason. Just been eating a lot of fish and uh chicken, but I threw a ribeye on the grill. I told myself that the extra iron and zinc would uh would help me. Ended up just making me feel a little bit sluggish. 12. Wow, that's awesome. Nice. Yeah.
All right. Um, let's get into it. Let's take a look at a few things we have. Um, well, first things first, just look at the calendar for this week. Obviously, everyone's already aware of what uh is on the horizon, right? Um, Empire State manufacturing index index came today, came in well below expectations. We have uh retail sales tomorrow and then on Wednesday we have our much awaited, much anticipated, much celebrated uh FOMC. So pretty um pretty significant week. Obviously, at this point, we've priced in a 25 basis point cut. Uh I think the one thing that makes this week interesting is not only from a um an event standpoint is it's also Opex. So we have a very significant Opex this week. Uh I shared this chart earlier today. So just give you guys an idea of what we're looking at uh for this coming expiration. You have just under a um just under a trillion dollars worth of calls expiring and there's about uh $96 billion worth of or no, excuse me. This is just under what did I say? Yeah, that is okay. Mistake. Um just under 96 billion or just over 96 billion worth of uh puts. So quite a significant um call and puts skew right there. But it looks like up to this point it uh for the move that we had, it it's not the case that VSS were really elevated and and that from a derivative standpoint as my good friend Chris Sidial pointed out, didn't look to be the case that from a derivative standpoint that the market was really uh reaching for upside and and indicating like a um imbalance of positioning or I guess uh the kind of levels of froth that we've seen in the past. But again, Opex is significant because leading into it or one just um into Opex, so into the actual expiry, you have a lot of flows that can be attributed to a lot of different things, but are really just mechanical Opex related flows. So on Thursday and Friday, it's uh it's one of those situations where I don't think you want to read into too much that takes place. Um again, most of that being most of those flows probably being related to uh Opex and then today we also have the ES rolling. So um a lot of the flows that you're seeing today in the ES could also be due to uh that uh contract expiry and the last trading day that contract is on the 19th, but today is the the uh official roll. Um, so there's a lot that could take place this week. Um, there's a lot of things that I think uh can lead to flows that might be maybe um overinterpreted or misinterpreted. I my view is going into my view going into FOMC is uh that a pullback into FOMC is better than us kind of continuing to ramp up into FOMC. So I I think the pullback into FOMC makes sense. So a little bit of um profit taking. So if we look at uh just blow this up over the course of the last few days in the weekend, you can see that just OI has been coming off um pretty steadily.
So, from uh Friday evening through the weekend, um sorry, Mercedes-Benz is calling me because we're on the fifth time of my wife's seats not going down after uh after we just took them back last week. So, I'm about to lemon law those [ __ ] Um flex on them, get all my payments back because that's the law. Uh the uh sidetrack, sorry. Um the uh it looks like from a just a derivative standpoint that you're seeing a good amount of profit taking. So, it's not the case that this OI looks to be like it's coming off from, you know, a continued short squeeze or um, you know, some kind of um uh um let's say, sorry, drinking while I'm trying to think. Um any kind of positions being hunted or squeezed out, it looks kind of steady. Um, so it again I think it's better that we see this going into FOMC than if it was to continue to ramp up into FOMC. Just the idea that we'll will kind of um reduce maybe a little bit of the crowding, maybe get people a little bit cautious in advance of not uh necessarily FOMC the rate decision, right, which is pretty much locked down unless we get absolutely surprised by a 50 basis point cut. Um, but maybe we're seeing some people uh heed a little caution or or take profit or hedge slightly. Not necessarily hedge though because open interest is is continuing to come off. Um, but just close out going into maybe Powell's presser. Um, a little bit of de-risking. So either way, I think this is better to see going in than us being uh us continuing to stretch and um continue to trade up into that event. I I think this makes it look like as long as this continues and I uh picked up a little bit of BTC down here. As long as this continues, I think that um the FOMC out of it, again, this is this is me just uh guessing, right? Educated guess um somewhat educated guess on reduced brain power. Um as long as we uh are not surprised by anything in the press, I think we see that this kind of risk reduction going into it is just probably put back on once that uncertainty is removed. So figure you get a pullback maybe even into tomorrow. And as long as we're holding um shared this chart earlier, as long as we're holding this box, so just give you guys an idea of what we're looking at. This is a weekly structure, but on the daily, this box extends from that. Um Thursday naked point of control. So Sunday, Saturday, Friday, Thursday, Thursday naked point of control. Uh Wednesday single print and um you also have uh the weekly VWAP back here in this right in the middle of this as well. So weekly VWAP is um it's uh last week's VWAP right here. So the uh shout out to Dom actually who put together this tool. He's not in the community but I know Dom outside of here. This is a great tool. Rolling VWAP. So, it's catching up to us now, but yesterday when I was sharing this was a a little bit deeper. Um, so I think this general region between was that 14 down to like was it like 129? I said 125 earlier in the chat. That was a mistake. Um, down to like 129 is kind of meaty. And that prior value area of the last two weeks goes down to 126 area. So I think you got to pull back into this level that is orderly and again I'm hinging this idea or rather the the idea that this is healthy around the observation that this looks like just general profit taking. Um again, it doesn't look like uh someone is being shoved out. That's I couldn't think of the words earlier, but it's not a squeeze, right? It's not shorts being squeezed. And it also doesn't look like um longs necessarily being shoved out, right? Just looks like a general reduction in in contracts over the course of this structure. And the uh spot markets over the course of the weekend relatively inactive. You're seeing some pickup in spot markets right now. Um, but CVD and PERPS matches what you see in open interest. So, this looks like so far, you know, fingers crossed, it looks like a a pretty orderly um pullback that we have earlier this morning.
Just to touch on something that stood out that was uh I think pretty obvious just uh the way that we look at these CVDs for lower time frame moves. So you have buy bit right here. This is a mistake. I don't know why this is I do know why it's because market monkey is good but it sucks. I don't know how Coinbase got thrown onto this exchange. But something that stood out this morning into this pullback is we still had absorption taking place. You had Coinbase absorption basically perfectly equal highs. Coinbase CVD ramping up still not really a ramp but 200 BTC. Binance spot market still selling. Binance futures with a higher high and then buy bit futures as well. This is Hold on. with uh a continued push up. So on the way down even it looks like someone was uh still stuffing the activity. So again, just I I think this is all I think this is just profit taking. I don't think it's anything to really be overly concerned with. Uh I think concern arises if we are trading uh back within this twoe composite. So back underneath you know, back underneath um 126, back underneath. Blow this up. That uh prior weekly high that we used as a pivot. So you get the idea. So this actually tracks a little bit. This that weekly high is slightly above that 126 level obviously or 128 level whatever it was that we were talking about in the beginning. Um, so the idea is this would you just would don't want to see that the market trades down to this level and does not form some kind of base. If we start getting slippery back within this gap, you know, we start trading back above longer-term VWAPs, well then yeah, you have some trouble. But I do think this level is a good area to uh to bid going into FOMC if we're going to continue to track lower. Um, so I picked up some Bitcoin this morning. Uh yes, just go over some thoughts going into um I mean, there's a couple things that do stand out. You know, the market doesn't look overheated from a derivative standpoint. Um CTAs are you guys probably seen the chart across Twitter at this point. CT CTAs are max long. So systematics are max long, which makes sense. Market's been ripping. Um to some extent it makes sense right uh a lot of the CTA approaches can be reduced down to or uh distilled down to uh basic trend following approaches with a obviously there's significant quantitative aspect to that as well other than just moving averages. Um, but I I think this being relatively elevated into FOMC, um, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a more constructive pullback in the ES or in the S&P. Again, it's it's a dense week from in terms of FOM FOMC and Opex. Um, this uh played out as an IB a full IB move earlier. So, as I drew in the chat, I think we end up probably filling this out to some extent. So, if we fill this out into FOMC, I think that's better than if we just continue to stay lifted. Just trying to get an idea of of what the market's expectations are, what it's already priced in. Um, what might come into the market that could change current positioning and you know being that the 25 basis point cut is more or less priced in uh and the S&P hasn't really had any kind of significant pullback recently. I don't know. I look at something like this. I look at last week's um structure and if you just see how structures are built over time, it's rarely the case that we leave behind a significant gap like this. So you're seeing this very low volume region between 6630 down to 6619 again going into FOMC big week market's been expecting a cut for a while it's been pretty well known u we've had some hiccups along the way and then going into uh Opex as well I don't know I'm inclined to I think lean in the direction of the um there's like a certain cadence to what we see in in equities and in in BTC where uh a period of a couple weeks up with really no major pullbacks. You you know it's healthy for markets to pull back. You know, we've had a really strong September so far. Um, I'm inclined to believe that we go into the end of the the like the latter half of the month and post Opex you're in sort of this window weakness where you don't really have those structural and supportive mechanical flows anymore um until the next month. So basically next week um this called the window weakness. I'm inclined to believe that we go into October with a little bit of a pullback. Just u I'm not positioning on behalf of that right now. But um I think I'm biased to lean in that into that direction a little bit more being that we're kind of lifted in this way um going into this week, right? Whereas BTC has had and you know there's conflicting basically conflicting views between um BTC and uh and ETH right I mean if we look at what BTC has done over the last you know it should be no uh no surprise to anyone what BTC has done over the last couple weeks versus what um ES has done they've um moved independently right uh and I think it's possible for for the ES to see a sort of constructive or to put in some kind of constructive orderly pullback. And for BTC to there's been very few times where this has happened, but I don't know. I'm I'm inclined to believe that this might be one of them where if the S&P does pull back a little bit more that BTC uh I don't know, hopefully puts up a better fight during this rather than having more downside capture. That could be a complete mistake. But as long as we're above the levels that I mentioned earlier, I I think uh it makes sense to treat this a little bit more or BTC a little bit more um long biased.
Take a look at the chat in a second, guys. Just kind of riffing over there's the morning was a good trading session. I normally don't trade Mondays. Um I was thinking that was a mistake early because I got into uh the uh gold long and then I closed it out. Took a couple ES scalps that were good. The Bitcoin long was good. Um, but the gold long, I I just psyched myself out of this because this was a very clean trade. So, just to go over this for anyone that was long or or saw me share this, um, we have a really, really nice composite here. So, there's one outside day, but leading into this, I I mean, value value. Um again, this you do have one day outside of that, but gold trades really technically. I think there's a few times where you can apply some discretion and create a value area where it might not necessarily have completely overlapped or satisfactory profiles within that would normally qualify it as a composite. But um my idea this morning was 37 would lead to another high and 37 traded and I'd say probably let this be a lesson. Never get baited into the trade on just the first presence above the level if you have a if you have an idea for a level. Right? In this case it was 37 back up to highs and I think the highs at that point were 3716. Um this is if you're looking at uh the chart from a time standpoint, you know, we might have spent so here's 37 spent a couple minutes above the level. Um this is 500 volume chart by the way. So each bar is 500 contracts. Um but there's barely any presence above the level. You should almost always wait for some kind of warning shot. So the initial shot is rather a warning shot and then look for uh reestablishment above that um above that line. So in this case, this was your 37, right? Market wick through that. Barely any volume through that, right? And then instead on the way back up, you could see how we based above that prior high. So, um wasn't a bad bail because, you know, I I think the, um, I I was holding to my 37 line, even though it arguably should have been lower. It arguably should have been, um, that might have been a mistake now that I'm looking at that. That's interesting. So, maybe I don't trade Mondays because I actually make mistakes. Um, I'm talking I'm saying 37 the entire time and I shared this as a composite break this morning. Wow, that's very frustrating. Okay, so the even the 37 that that's that was a very dumb mistake. This was the ledge. This was the value area. That was the right level to look toward. So, it's it's kind of obvious now why that trade was uh a poorly executed trade and I never got back in it. Um, that was just a complete eyeball [ __ ] up. Wow. Don't trade sick. Don't trade Mondays on their own. Definitely don't trade the combination of them. Wow. Say I in the chat if you've ever made a really dumb obvious mistake. Wow, that was Yeah, that was um there should have been no stress around that because even aping into that would have led to just the level trading back and holding.
All right. Well, anyway, uh at least if one thing is actionable from this, it's the point that I've been making over the last couple weeks about the benefit of trading gold is that it's just a really clean clean asset to trade when it's moving with a narrative and when it's got a driver and there's momentum. It's really clean. Really clean. Uh [ __ ] that's unfortunate. Anyway, let me look at some of the uh me look at the comments, guys. Feel free to um as I said, take advantage of these these um calls to ask questions. So, going to go back and look at some of the alts that we shared last week. Do a little bit of a wellness check. I think all these are still intact and look good if they're holding up, you know, while BTC is pulling back into FOMC. Um, and as long as we're in a position where credit is good and liquidity is is supple for markets, I don't think this FOMC FOMC should really lead to any kind of uh significant pullback other than the pullback you might expect from position getting crowded into an event, right? Um, so a little bit of de-risking going into an event, not like a surprise, right? Um I think a something that would clearly shock the markets is, you know, if they didn't cut. Um, but so I think all of these kind of moves we're seeing are normal and that uh I think that translates to just the idea that um any alt that is during this period of BTC pulling back more constructively, you know, BTC's 30 basis points off today. Um, so alts are, you know, obviously going to have more downside capture than that, but um AVAX, I think, is a really good example. Avax now with a, uh, um, a DAT play, right? Digital asset treasury play. So, one of the beneficiaries of that narrative, probably going to see a little bit more um, around that. Um, so this still looks good. So, from a high time frame standpoint, you know, you have a high time frame breakout basically going back a year almost at this point. And I I think uh this is the is a pretty binary setup. So, I think every time that we've had something happen like this, something happen like this meaning such a clear level defined. I mean, these trades in equities are some of the a lot of the more A+ setups in equities in single names in uh whether small caps or large caps. Um it's not often the case that you're going to get major breakouts like where they haven't tra you know they've traded below like uh yearly highs or you know multi-month highs that have been range highs for a while and then you finally get a breakout. Um, so those in, you know, large cap equities and small cap equities, midcaps, those are really actionable setups there. Uh, I think it's especially the case in um, in crypto that they are too. So these setups where you have this kind of multimonth breakout, I think it's super binary. You have to take the setup. So it's a it's a switch. So, I mentioned this last week. You might feel late to it. I think even if you're a couple percent or I should say more than a couple, I think if you're even a few percent off of the the level, I think you have to add to this position with the regular accommodative stop that you would, but based on the bar break of that um daily that took you through the level. So, I don't think anything's changed with AVAX. I think you give it some respect above this level. Let it do its thing and this probably tracks higher. Apologies for the uh you guys probably hear a ton of sniffles right now. Woke up this morning feeling like it was all a bad dream and now I'm feel like I'm sliding back into the uh the abyss.
What doge 2 doge of uh so this doge trade the really easy trade was back here right we shared this back here really great technical setup much lower um you know now having swept this high summer highs I'm less uh I'm a little bit more apprehensive about Doge And some people might be looking at um maybe this line might be valid just from a behavioral standpoint. People tending to act on these levels. One sec. Let me uh pull this up. Open interest continues to ramp up into this. I don't know why this is on, but that's got a big increase in uh looks like short delta combination of the OI and the delta right there. H this probably I probably shouldn't even overthink this. You have going into FOMC, you have a 20% uh no, excuse me, a 15% pullback almost. There might be some confluence around this general area or there is rather confluence around this general area. This HVN, it stands out, but I don't know what side that's from. Is that from the lead up or the move down? That's combination. We'll take a look at the chat. One sec, guys. Sorry, I'm just a This might be a good area. Yeah. At least if anything, you probably fill out this low volume pocket. What else? What else? Shared this um last night, so keep an eye on this. This galaxy which I shared the fundamental reasons why this is possibly set to benefit uh quite a lot in the near to uh mid future. And I think um those things are it's debatable about whether or not those things are really um that impactful as much as prices, but you have them lining up right now. So fundamentals lining up with technicals and you're looking at a a very possibly a very large breakout in the making on this. So this is going back to early 2021 2022 highs. So 100% keep an eye on this. I'd say this might even be the example of something you should just start allocating to sort of stairstepping up gradually trading really clean over the last two years. Uh uh mantle by the way same I think same scenario as AVAC clean breakout multi-year structure I think you just give it the benefit of the doubt so it's It's you're bullish on one side, bearish on the other, cautious on the other. But as long as it's above this, and um this is up on the day during BTC's pullback. I don't think any adjustments are needed there. This looks great. XPL talked about how um I had to just suck it up and buy futures position for this even though there's no spot market. I think that's more of an indication that this is higher to go once you get spot markets in this. The cost of carrying futures positions might be something to that could add up. But I think from a technical standpoint, if the chart looks clean and it's coming in at the right time and everything else looks okay, it's uh likely that this experiences a run before it even if it goes through a deeper pullback, consolidation, corrective phase.
Does BTC have a historical correlation with gold bid or is it just a meme? Um it's not a like tick for tick daily, you know, uh correlation. It's not the same the you know correlation coefficient that BTC has with like the Russell or the NASDAQ or the ES. It's um more of a the assumption is that it follows gold a little bit more loosely. Directionally it's right, but but um intraday the correlation is no, not there. So, let's see. Hype um playing out as I drew it out the other day. So, what I drew was a popup followed by a correction and sweeping of this level. So, I had two lines back here. Now, I've drew this earlier. I don't see why and game of SK. I'll I'll add that. Um I'll I'll write those thoughts down, the uh thoughts about funding. I don't see why hype was such a good level from one side and won't be a decent level from the other. So I think you could expect sort of a mechanical bounce probably around this 50 level. Pullback right now is is is kind of orderly too. So, I mean, even if you were going to get a reversal, you figure four down days going into FOMC week. I mean, maybe Wednesday bounce, maybe FOMC bounce. So, Wednesday, Thursday bounce. So, I think the idea is like it and this again could be just complete mistake, but I'm willing to add a little bit more expression around this idea positioning wise. So buying a little BTC um this morning um some of the altum long as well. So I I tapped into uh Ando and ETHI. Ando doesn't seem the most promising, but ETHI I think looks good. Um these are spot positions, by the way. But I a lot of the I think good ideas for this week come off of on the long side are are built on the idea that a pullback into the week into FOMC looks much better than a drive up. So you want to see some de-risking. I think that sets the table for uh at least a nice bounce as money maybe rotates back in when uh people realize that >> bulletin received >> that uh we're not like falling apart from FOMC. I don't know what the expectation is that would cause that unless Powell, you know, throws a curveball at the market during the presser. But I think yeah, I think this generally this low volume region should be a decent area to pick some hype up down to 50. So you got to figure maybe get one more sweep into this and then you're looking at something maybe, you know, tomorrow trading through today's lows, stop below 50, probably have at least a trade back to the highs. I think you probably can afford to even chase a tighter stop from this once you get a little bit of a turn intraday uh pump. And yeah, guys, I'm just running through some some pairs right now. It's Monday. You know the deal. Monday's not um really that in-depth. It's more digestive and just uh I'm still sick, so it's can only really go at the speed.
Pump's interesting. Uh the pump idea last week was fantastic. Obviously, the idea that this was a really uh really nice bottom flagging above that, you know, new chart effect, right? Fundamentals are from a narrative standpoint, narrative is great. Um buybacks with no real um I I gave that whole thesis, you know, in the short term the things that could drive a narrative that's set up well with good fundament with good technicals, right? Who cares about the the merits of the narrative? If people are buying into it while technicals look good, then you know, you have a bunch of boxes that are checked. But there's a lot of people right now that are shorting this. Um, and for that reason, I think you could see this blow off a little bit more. You're seeing OI drive up and you're getting some uh spot. No, you get these are excuse me, you're seeing some Yeah, never mind. Um the spot markets CVD versus the per CVD is quite a discrepancy between those two and you see open interest continuing to to lift. So, I don't know. I I don't know what the reason would be to short this instead of just, you know, if you have something that's really really strong. It doesn't make sense to pick that thing of all things to short. Um it makes sense to look at you know what has you know if you're really going to try to express an idea around pump I think it would be what has been maybe correlated to pump on the upside but it has had more downside capture and then therefore you know let's say it trades in line with pump it's like some other um you know ecosystem like similar ecosystem play not it's It's like a copycat of pump almost, right? Or it doesn't even have to be. It just could be a pair that's been really correlated to it, but had more downside capture. Um, pumpf fun, bonkfund. Yeah. Yeah. Um, it's almost like you shouldn't even bother with the leader at that point. If you want to short, well, one, you don't have to do anything. Like, you don't have to go from long to short, but you should look at something that might be a better expression of that idea that's related to it. I mean, right away, you could see that bonk is weaker compared to pump. And sometimes just even like these leaders like when there's been a leader and I don't think pump has been it long enough um the health of the leader how well sustained this move is sometimes sort of percolates into the rest of the market where I should say no precipitates right um where when this has a pullback like I don't think it's pumped right now but just trying to communicate the idea instead of shorting that thing you could short almost any other thing because once the leader starts to drop, everyone looks at that as a signal for the broader market. Pump shorters are market crap micro I said micro cap crap trenchers that are used to selling moves like this. Yeah, you know, you could take sick days, man. Yeah, I thought I was good today and then like I said, I went to the gym and um I'm not I feel good still. I feel I definitely feel better. But like I said, I'm it's a competition for energy right now in my body. And I definitely uh made a little difficult of myself by just doing some light work. Not I didn't even lift weights. I I literally just was on the stationary bike doing some snow trail and then uh the stairmaster and elliptical. So, um, Arrow, uh, this is something that obviously if base if they drop a token, then Arrow is clearly going to benefit, right? Yeah, cardio. But it was it was not even cardio from like a like I was in zone one, I think, the whole time, which was so embarrassing. I'm like looking at my heart rate. I'm like, "Okay, my heart rate is normal." You know, it's my heart rate wasn't even elevated. It's like walking rate. It was like 90 and um which is barely any exertion but when I came off of it I just I felt like jello. My legs felt like jello. But um Arrow uh shared this this morning. I think Arrow was from a technical standpoint had merit before any of the announcements that we had. But now again, I think you it's a it's a matter of I think you have a couple stars aligning. I think Arrow is going to trade through this level, these highs on Binance. It's it's very rare that something lists, makes the turn, is local, and then doesn't do the full job. So, you have to express your position in a way that does not put you at risk of liquidation and giving up the house. But I think there are certain things that help you lean a little bit more in one direction. I think this is one of them. Um, and for anyone who's confused by what I'm saying, it's a Binance listing, a recovery of that, right? This is a Binance perpetual contract. But even if we go to like um let's say Binance um this doesn't even have a Wait a second. I don't even think this has a Binance spot market yet. No, it doesn't. So, this is Yeah. So, okay. Um, Binance was the only thing is there is a per the This is buy bit, right? So, it's made mainly Coinbase. This uh this rarely just does this, right? And then does not complet, you know, complete the job as I said, meaning trade back through the listing highs. If you look at this on Coinbase, bit of a different story. Same idea though. Back in this high time frame range. I mean, this is like I said, it might be this kind of path there. I think you could be in this position much more comfortably. That's why I was talking about I need to swap out futures for um uh spot. So, I aped this morning. I think this has a little bit of a tailwind to it. I want to see how it plays out into the Asian session. Yeah, of course. I think the market's going to price things in faster. the base token is is not going to happen uh overnight, but I think the market has a tendency to run things for a little bit before realizing the truth. Not the truth, but that they're a little bit ahead of themselves. Yeah. For error. Yes, that's I know I I I know what you mean, Chashir. Uh let me just look at give you guys a a view on ETHI. Kind of a simple technical setup in my opinion. Um consolidation against resistance on the high time frame. continue to mark up ETH DeFi multi-week breakout, multimonth breakout, multimonth composite. So um below the highs obviously of um um presummer highs. So it's not like a breakout breakout, but I think in general this whole zone is a uh from a contextual risk award standpoint is a better area to be long. Give me one sec, guys. I just have to uh use the bathroom real quick. Okay.
Um, arrow dat. Yeah, I think um the just be prepared for I'd say a lot more dats. Um, I said a few months ago at this point, this was back in July that um the at the time like when there was like the first few dats announced, people were talking about it as if it was like a bad omen like, oh, this is like, you know, peak uh cycle behavior. This is like um Luna. This is like there was a lot of different things that uh were said about it more or less being um negative, right? And a sign of a top. Um and the reality is like this is a completely new thing. So the truth is like things tend to persist for a little while before you could, you know, say rip on them, right? Like when you have a new grift, which is a lot of these I'd say are new grifts, uh they tend to have a bit of staying power, at least for a few months. And, um, they're they haven't even really be haven't really even been extended too far down the line in terms of like the the risk curve. So, I think you could expect a lot of alts to to have these attached. And so, I think we're still kind of early to honestly. So, whether you know that's about the arrow rumor, right? I I think just expect there's going to be a lot of this is probably um this probably good reason to be a news trader right now. Put it that way. So, if you have access to these headlines, you know, so, uh, you name it, right? Whatever alt you could think of, announces a DAT, um, I think these are going to be tradeworthy for quite a bit. The market knows what impact it has had in the short to midterm and there's going to be some kind of calculation about what is what meat is left on the bone, right? How much risk taking people are still willing to take. Uh you still see that uh upon announcement and upon the beginning of these there's um a good amount of uh return to be expected. It's not like competed down to zero yet and then when the actual capital hits the underlying there's clearly an impact on the market. Um, so I think we're still early to this and I think uh any pair that I think you have to have I should start doing this. You should start creating a watch list just for these um just for the DAT pairs. So I think a combination of the uh treasury plays plus really good technicals that that list has to be has to kind of exist on its own. you know, the the market, like I said, has been um well, initially the market was bifurcated with with just BTC and then everything else and then it's BTC ETH, everything else. And now it's it's slowly like there's a lot of other pairs that are crossing over into that um sort of TradFi Rails, TradFi Plumbing. the assets that benefit from Trafi plumbing or just say Tradfi speculation or TRDFI narratives, TRFI related and I think these are just clear like that it's a no-brainer that you should be focusing more on these right now because there's really I mean this market goes through periods where it just makes up narratives, right? And this is the I think this is just the new one that we've created. I mean, does everyone else get that feeling about this market, too? Nothing is real. It's all just one invented narrative to the next. We use that up, you know, get people excited about that and then it's clear that the emperor has no clothes, right? And then we go back to this point of being kind of nilistic about crypto. when you know there's only a few pairs like BTC is the only thing that's legit and then it feels like you know we've exercised or exhausted every narrative and you just don't realize how creative people are especially I mean listen in traditional markets there's a lot more um ex there are far more exotic things that are created to speculate on crypto doesn't even really have like struct like structured products yet. I mean, it does, but the ability to griff this market, I think, is is uh there's a lot more left a lot more left that can be used. And then if we ever exhaust them long enough, I mean, if we're far enough away from people's memory of one, we could just start using it again. You know, it's kind of like Styles, like we're bringing bell-bottom jeans back. Well, eventually we're going to bring back some [ __ ] narrative that drove us up a couple years back, but this time it's going to be figured out better, smoothed out. All the hiccups worked out. What else? What else, guys? Yeah. So, I mean, this is kind of a casual stream, but I think just going into the end of today's session into tomorrow, I mean, oh wow, we're bouncing during the stream. Um, I wouldn't get too bearish going into FOMC unless we're trading up on Wednesday into, you know, Wednesday morning we're starting to roof. Then I think I'd start to take chips off the table. But as it stands right now, we had a pullback most of this session. We have an hour before we close. New York session flat. Asian session picks up the ball. I don't know actually. Um we'll just play it one one session at a time. So uh I picked up longs earlier this morning. Looks good. Now the idea going into FOMC from the from lower is better in my opinion. But if we're starting to really track higher going into tomorrow and we start again trading significantly higher, um I might change my tune Wednesday morning. Um because if we're tracking higher Wednesday morning and the S&P is still tracking higher, I think markets might be set up for uh maybe a little bit of downside shock. the um alt open interest to market cap ratio chart I shared yesterday I think is is useful like alt um the the hidden leverage in the market I think is there's definitely a decent amount of hidden leverage but there's definitely products that exist in this market that do have or create higher open interest that might not necessarily be directional so that's something to consider but Dave telling me to get some rest twice I have to go pick up my car. Actually, my um uh they just texted me and they told me that my car is done. The uh uh M5, the wrap. But yeah, did they announce the I'm going to hop off in a second, but uh did Multicoin announce the purchase was done this morning, a $1.5 billion purchase, and then I think after there was another 500 million that was announced, is on the table for purchase, continued spot purchase. Um, I don't know. Solana, a lot of this move so far is on that. Anyway, guys, I think I'm going to wrap it up. It's been an hour. Feeling a little depleted. Um, I think as long as we pulled back and we're trading orderly into FOMC, we don't have any kind of crazy upside into that. I think the game is to be I think the game is to be positioned long into it, meaning going into Wednesday morning. So, we have uh an Asian session ahead of us hopefully can be pretty optimistic about. And then tomorrow, I'd feel better. Like I said, if so, if we do pull back tomorrow, I think what happens on Wednesday leads to upside over the weekend. Like I think best case scenario for this market is a pullback into FOMC. And then post FOMC, the realization that there's really not a lot of boogeymen or reasons to be u overly bearish leads to people redeploying and and uh positioning snapping back. Hopefully us continuing to push up. All right, guys. I'm going to wrap it up. Get my car, get some rest, not trick myself into thinking that uh I'm 100% better. Later.