Transcription
Hello, this is Crypto and I hope you are doing well. Today, we had more announcements from Donald Trump, but there is some good news in all of this. Yes, we dropped, but you will see that the drop is not necessarily linked primarily to Donald Trump. It is linked once again to leverage and a purge, and classically to a market trap. We will come back to this in a few moments. But the big news is that despite Donald Trump constantly saying that perhaps it won't happen, perhaps it will happen, that in any case, on November 1st, he will impose 155% tariffs. The market is not reacting, or almost not reacting. Look at the NASDAQ on a daily chart. Yesterday, despite all these announcements which are rather negative, we have a market that has priced in, that's it, this possibility, this possibility that it could happen, but that doesn't mean it's priced in on the fact that it will happen. If on November 1st, we really have no deal, that we really have the 155%, I think then we will have a pricing that will occur and a significant drop. As long as that's not the case, it means we will hold on, and it means here that any allegation of supposition will not lead to a change. In any case, if it's Trump or something that confirms exactly Donald Trump's discourse, which we've already had for several days. So there will be no change. But despite that, despite that, we have the liquidation, a liquidation that is identical. 355 million dollars of longs, 300 million dollars of shorts. Okay, we liquidated the front and the back. We liquidated, we did a round trip. You will see it, very visible later on the BTC charts. But so we don't need Donald Trump again to do this. We don't need Donald Trump to accelerate and drop. And that reminds us of the fundamental, which is that we must still be very careful with risk management and especially with leverage. Even if it's not Donald Trump again who caused the drop in cryptos that we experienced yesterday. In the meantime, we have Cadena which is closing directly. Yes, Cadena is stopping its development and stopping everything related to business operations. It's over. They announced that they were ending the project. The blockchain itself and the token will continue to exist. But with the current market conditions, it's not possible to continue to develop it. Naturally, the Cadena token dropped by 60% immediately upon the announcement, which is quite normal. Even though they explained that it continues to live and so on and so forth, nevertheless, what is certain is that there are not necessarily any potential developments for Casena. It wasn't the case for several years already. And this confirms to us that we will have a lot of projects, I think, that will close down because it's the end of 2025 and many projects operate in cycles. And if they haven't made enough money in this cycle to sustain a market, then unfortunately, they close early to keep some cash they were able to recover that way. We have some good news, by the way, it's Coinbase which announces that they are working on private transactions. This is a very big thing and it should arrive directly on the Base blockchain. We don't know exactly how it will be done yet. Globally, they bought a company a few months ago that specializes in this. They are looking into how to integrate it. We should have news soon. They told us really soon. And so this is really very good news because clearly we need to have private transactions. We need to have transactions where we don't necessarily have to understand everything that's happening on the blockchain when we want to, for example, transfer cash from one wallet to another that belongs to us. So we don't necessarily need to have that. Naturally, regarding European anti-money laundering law enforcement. I think that will cause some friction. We'll see how it's managed. Again, the problem of international regulations is really very difficult to manage, especially when we have two points of measurement. The European Union which is dragging its feet and the US which is moving at full speed. An interesting small thing and a piece of news that I find also very intellectually interesting and that provokes a lot of thought, is that a large portion of OGs, so these are old Bitcoiners who have been around for a very long time, and large whales are moving to Black Rock, specifically to ETFs, to hold their BTC. The principle is as follows: naturally, when you hold directly several million dollars in BTC, or even several billion dollars, the fact of being able to put them into an ETF and close your eyes and say it's okay, it's no longer my problem, and abandon the notion of self-custody, which is very good, we agree, the sovereignty of one's money, but the sovereignty of several million or billion dollars starts to be a bit complicated and especially very risky. And here, we greatly reduce the risk. So this means that we have a figure that is being generated and a figure that can be achieved not by a sale of OGs being bought by institutions, there is that which is real, but also I think we are in a dynamic where there is a transfer, saying okay, now there is perhaps a desire to have a transition that is happening, so the OGs are not necessarily selling, at least not all of them, and are perhaps changing their medium for holding. And this is visible anyway, this graph here is very telling. It's the representation since the Black Rock ETFs were launched and the curve that is falling is the CF that is saying, so that is to say, the number of people who hold their own networks and their own tokens and their own Bitcoin. And we see that it has been falling here since the launch of Black Rock and we really have a rupture. Is it still a total rupture? I don't think so. I think we can recover, but nevertheless, it shows you that there is a real desire, and it even goes further because I will remind you that if you have self-custody of BTC or crypto in general, it's complicated outside of DeFi to do it, but a loan is something that is very important when you have a significant crypto portfolio for several reasons. Firstly, it allows us not to sell the cryptos and to be able to recover cash, and it's true that when you are in an ETF and in a traditional financial park with other assets of the same type, it is much, much simpler to manage it that way, and especially in the US, and even generally worldwide, and even in Europe, it's happening, and in France too. France legalized, I remind you, on May 12, 2025, Lombard loans backed by cryptocurrencies. So that's a very good thing. Again, it's not necessarily easy to do, especially in France, but nevertheless, it's something that exists and it's perfectly logical to want to restructure one's assets at some point, to have perhaps a part of these cryptos that are in self-custody and a part that will perhaps be in an ETF which is much simpler to manage, has very low fees, and can be part of a Lombard loan policy. Again, for those who don't know about Lombard loans, to put it simply, for example, I have $100,000 in BTC, I have the possibility to pledge it, meaning that these BTC can be sold by the bank to repay it, and I will borrow against these $100,000, for example, 30%, so that's $30,000, and I can do whatever I want with this $30,000, whether it's for investment, for use, for living expenses, etc. And this is something that is super interesting, and especially in the principle of Lombard, you only pay the interest and you only pay the principal at the end, meaning you repay the sum only when it's over. And some even allow you to roll it over, meaning you never repay the principal. In short, all this to tell you that it's logical and it's part of the integration, I think, of BTC into the financial model, and we will have many users who will perhaps do a mix or entirely switch to ETFs. And by the way, are any of you directly on ETFs or are you on self-custody? We've had quite a few good news with a Fed governor explaining that cryptocurrency will be the fabric of payments and the financial system going forward. So really, there is a marked desire by the US to directly integrate crypto into their processes and into tradfi, so traditional finance. Gold dropped sharply yesterday. We were talking a few days ago, not even a few days, that we might be at a top for gold, at least a temporary top, because the moment we saw lines and lines of people wanting to buy gold, it was generally a sign of a sale. And that's exactly what happened. Moreover, we sold sharply because we went from 4400 to almost 4000 dollars. Don't forget that even when it's going up, and even when it's gold, at some point, we can have violent corrections. And those who were looking to buy gold, it could have been a good opportunity here, even if the drop may not be over and we could have a consolidation with perhaps a small further drop before starting again. What will be important is that the RSI is breathing, and that's good. Then, on September 24th, we were really overheated on the RSI. So that's a good thing. BTC. Unfortunately, we have swallowed a large part of the acceleration. We can clearly see it in the weekly candle on the CME, and we still have this CME gap here. A CME gap which, for me, is important. A CME gap which potentially represents a closing and an interesting zone to bottom out and start again. And this CME gap, the fact that we moved away from it, made me question a lot because it's one of the very important elements to close before moving on. And that's what we see here. We went to test the rejection zone of 114119, which is a small imbalance located there. And so we are really in this schematic. Drop, bullish reaction, drop. And here, we are in a second one. As long as we hold 107,400, it's rather positive, but given the candles we are seeing, I think there's a way to reach 106,000, or even retest 103,600 again, or perhaps a little lower. Don't forget that the market is weak right now. Liquidity has not fully returned yet, and part of the liquidity was liquidated by this wick. Let's recall on October 10th, we liquidated almost 20 billion dollars, and here again, we find ways to continue liquidating. Yes, we still have liquidations, I remind you, 657 million dollars. A few days ago, we liquidated another billion dollars, then a few days later, another billion dollars. So globally, the more liquidation vectors we have, the less liquid the market is, and therefore the more volatile and strong the movements will be, up or down, until liquidity returns. And that will always take a little time, especially for market makers in a period of instability. I remind you of the geopolitical situation in the US where we are still in a shutdown, even if it should be resolved this week, we are starting to see rather positive signs in this regard. We are also waiting for the Fed which will arrive next week. We will necessarily wait for the discussion between Shinpin and Trump. Well, all of this means that market makers are not necessarily eager to take on a lot of risk and therefore add a lot of liquidity to the crypto market. And even on BTC, we feel that there is indeed a lack of liquidity. which is visible, and especially on small market caps. So be very careful, especially with leverage, you've seen that we're doing a lot of round trips because we took off here and arrived at the same place the same evening. That's all. That is to say, we did a round trip in the day and we liquidated everyone in the shorts, everyone in the longs. So be really careful again with your leverage. What will interest me is to have a structure with a plateau that will ideally form something like this, where we will perhaps retest this zone and then break through 113,000, break through 116,000, and then we will have a very positive signal for a bottom to be established to move into an acceleration phase with certainly a new ATH. Unfortunately, for now, that's not the case at all. We can clearly see that we made a low here that is higher than the previous one. Okay. But the top we made, well, it didn't reach the next top. So the structure is still the same. We have an RSI that is rising, which is rather positive, so it's a first sign. But as long as there is no bullish breakout happening, we will not have validation on the RSI and we will not have a change in structure. Short term. Unfortunately, we remain in a slightly bearish trend. We see a downward trend, and again, it will primarily depend on macroeconomic news and also on institutions and liquidity injections that we will find in ETFs. ETFs play a significant role each time we have a liquidity injection, we have a pump or at least a maintenance of the price, and that's something that has really changed too. On the dominance side, BTC is still very strong, inching up slowly towards 60%. We talked about it on October 10th, or rather October 11th, the next day, that we would certainly see BTC continue to rise around 60%. That's what's happening. We see that there is indeed a repatriation of capital happening to BTC only, not necessarily to altcoins, and there isn't necessarily a desire to be more exposed to altcoins, at least temporarily. And that's exactly what we're seeing. And even in the drops, we can clearly see that BTC is much more resilient and is not the one being liquidated the most. Again, when we look at the total liquidations, BTC is never really first in this regard. So that shows that there is indeed much more risk taken on the rest with much less liquid markets and therefore much more risk. So be very careful. I'll remind you that in the comments in the description, you have the possibility to join the Telegram where I communicate a lot and share a lot of things. Whether it's information, voice notes, videos, or simply training, everything is available for free. It's in the comments in the description if you want to join me. If you liked the video, it's simple, like, share, and especially subscribe. And I'll see you very soon.