Transcription
Well, if you're watching this video, I'm assuming you're in the finals of your fantasy football league. So, congratulations for making it. In today's video, we're going to talk about running back starts and sits. We'll go through all 16 games, 32 teams in total, and I'll rank every single running back. I know there's a lot of injuries that you're going to be dealing with, so I'll rank all of them. There are time codes if you want to go to a specific matchup, and my ultimate goal here is to help you set those lineups.
All right, let's jump into the Christmas Day games, which by the way, if you don't know, there are three games on Christmas Day this year. Let's start off with the Cowboys at the Commanders. It's a 50 and a half point overunder, which is tied for the second highest overunder of the entire week. The Cowboys are favored by about five and a half points. It's in Washington, but honestly, I think they should be favorites at this point. Javvante Williams will be a must start for me in this game. He's my RB12 this week. Um, on Monday's practice, for example, he was a limited participant. That's a great sign for the rest of the week. We're not seeing a guy that's a DNP. I expect him to be out there and playing. If there's some freak accident, and, you know, Malik Davis ends up being the starter. You can put Malik in there and start him. The Commanders are the fifth best matchup for your fantasy running backs. So, definitely a matchup that we want to go out there and target.
Now, on the opposite side, the only name I'm really considering playing here is Chris Rodriguez, but there's a lot of like Bill Crosky Merrick getting worked into the rotation, Jeremy McNichols. I think there's too much um you know, unknowns in this backfield for me to confidently tell anybody to to play one of these names. I would say 9.5 out of 10 of you guys watching this video have a better option than a Washington running back. And while the Cowboys technically say they're the eighth best matchup when you adjust for schedule, you have to keep in mind that Quinnon Williams is on this team. He should be coming back from that concussion protocol. So, I would probably avoid this uh matchup entirely if I could.
Okay, second uh game on Christmas. And by the way, merry Christmas from my family to yours. Hopefully you have a great day celebrating it. We've got the Lions at the Vikings. 44 and a half point overunder. The Lions are favored by five and a half points. They really need to get these wins racked up if they're going to get into the playoffs. Jir Gibbs is my RB2 in this game. Diva Montgomery has just I mean almost completely become an afterthought in this Lions backfield. He is not an important part of their offense anymore. It is really like Jir Gibbs season he has completely been unleashed in this offense. You can see last week for example Gibbs with 64 64 snaps just 13 for David Montgomery and that ended up with 20 touches compared to just four. He's not being as used much on the goal line. He's not being used much in the air. Unless he gets a touchdown, he's a bust. I would say he's a mustit. It's not even a great matchup that you should go out there and target. So, I would prefer to avoid the situation entirely.
Now, on the opposite side, I do think Aaron Jones is a solid spot start. You know, a high-end RB3, lowend RB2, flexible name. Uh, and also have to keep in account here that Jordan Mason's probably not going to play in this game due to an injury. So, he should get a little bit more opportunities.
Okay. In the third day, uh, third game on Christmas Day, we got the Broncos at the Chiefs. So, this is the second lowest overunder of the week at 37 and a half points. It's also tied for the largest spread of the week. That's in favor of the Denver Broncos. It's in Kansas City, but at this point, the entire Chiefs um, team is melting down. For example, Patrick Mahomes went down with the ACL injury. Gardenner Mchu is now on IR and they're signing Shane Buchle, I think, to their active roster. Who knows who's playing quarterback for them, but this is an absolute nightmare. I do not want to play Pacheco. I do not want to play Cream Hunt. The only reason you can play Pacheco in some sort of desperation scenario is simply because of the amount of volume he got through the air last week. He had seven targets that ended up giving him a pretty safe floor. But I just don't think that's replicable from one name to the next, from one quarterback to the next. I would say avoid this entire backfield.
On the opposite side, you can start RJ Harvey. Yes, it technically is the fourth worst match up for your running backs, but at this point, the Chiefs offense is not going to keep the defense off the field very much. So, R.J. should have plenty of scoring opportunities. We're going to roll with him. I think that the Broncos roll in this game.
Okay, that brings us to Saturday. We have two games on Saturday. Yes. So, you need to set these lineups early. Texans at Chargers. 39 12 point overunder, a very low overunder. Uh, two defenses that typically do a great job. There are only really two running backs I'm considering in this game. Woody Mars and Amarian Hampton. Now, if let's say Woody Marks is not able to play, I'm projecting him to play. We thought he might play last week. I just think he needed another week. If he plays, he's a volume play at best, right? He's a guy that, you know, is going to go out there and get 16 17 opportunities. Uh Chargers are middle of the pack matchup. Uh it's not a great offensive line that he's behind, but purely based off of volume, you can rationalize putting him in there, but it is a low ceiling. For Amari Hampton, it's technically a terrible matchup, but we do know that Kamani Vidal is dealing with a neck strain. I don't expect him to play in this game. Even if he does, I think he would be limited. Amaran Hampton is a play based off of volume, but he's in a better offense, uh an offense that is more willing to move the ball and use him on the goal line. So that's why I have Hampton six spots higher. They're both low in RB2s, you know, flex options. They're not guys that you have a ton of confidence in.
Okay, let's move to the Ravens at the Packers here. Second game on Saturday. 41 and a half point overunder. The Packers are favored by two and a half points. That might spread uh that spread might change depending on the health of Jordan Love and Malik Willis. I don't expect Jordan Love to play. He was uh dealing with a concussion last week. Pretty much head-on hit to the helmet. I don't expect him to play. We don't even know if Malik Willis is going to play. Here's the deal. I think this game plan will be built around Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Emanuel Wilson. Now, that is assuming Josh Jacobs is healthy. If they come out there and they say we don't know what his workload's going to be and maybe Emanuel Wilson will be a little bit more involved, maybe you air it towards a side of caution and sit both of them. But it depends on your options. Like if your options are Josh Jacobs or, you know, Jaory Crosky Merritt for example, you're going to throw Josh Jacobs in there even with all the uncertainties.
Now, on the opposite side, Derrick Henry is going to be a must start for me. You know, it's not an ideal situation. I don't think Lamar Jackson's going to play this week. However, I do think you're going to see a healthy dose of Derk Henry because of that. Because there is no Lamar Jackson. I expect him to get 20 plus touches. Uh based off of the volume, based on the opportunity, the goal line opportunities. Uh Dererick Henry is a a must start for me this week.
Okay, we can finally go to the start of the Sunday slate of games where we have the Seahawks at the Panthers. Now, you you might be thinking to yourself, Zack, how in the world do you not have Ken Walker as a must start after what we saw on Thursday night? Well, I had to experience it firsthand cuz I played against Ken Walker in the Flock League and in my home Superflex league in the semi-finals. So, I get it. But nothing changed with their rotation. I mean, let's be for real for a second. Yes, Ken Walker had a great day. He ended up scoring almost 26 fantasy points, but that didn't change the rotation. Zack Charbanet still out snapped him by eight snaps. Uh, Zack Charbanet still went out there and had 13 touches to his 14. It is still very much a split backfield. The Panthers are a decent matchup. They're kind of middle of the pack. They're currently ninth when you look at schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed. So, you can put Ken Walker out there. I've said this every single week this year. If you're going to play one of them, it's going to be Ken uh Ken Walker for me simply because on any touch, he can, you know, reward you for playing him. He has that home run hitter ability. Charbanet is much more of a grinded out guy.
Then on the opposite side, things in, you know, Carolina are getting really difficult to manage right now. It's just it's just a nightmare back and forth. It's a different name each and every week. Uh the volume is starting to become really really messy. For example, last week Rico Dattle led the way in in snaps, but it was close between the two. It's not like there was a clear workhorse. Rico Dattle ended up with 13 touches, seven for Chuba Hubard. So, if you're going to start one of them, you could start Rico. But the issue is it's a terrible matchup. In fact, the Seahawks are the worst matchup for your fantasy running backs. So, not only do you have to deal with this split backfield, even though Carolina's a good running team, but you also have to deal with a terrible matchup. So, I would suggest if you can avoid this backfield entirely, you know, 8.5 out of 10 of you guys watching this will have a better option. And that's why I've ranked every running back in today's video.
Okay, that brings us to the seventh matchup here. We got the Cardinals and the Bengals. Highest overunder of the week at 52 and a half points. Bengals are favored by about a touchdown, which makes sense. They're at home. They just put on a show against Miami. Michael Carter, Chase Brown, it's easy. You start both of these guys in this matchup in particular.
Now, Chase Brown has been an absolute savior for fantasy football from about the middle of the season onwards. He's been really, really good. He's been very reliable, scoring 15 or more PPR points in about six or seven straight games. So, he's definitely a guy that you can put into your lineup with a lot of confidence. You can run against the Cardinals. They should be up in this game. Samaji Pieran is not the worst like Hail Mary, but I'm not messing around with it unless you're in a really large league.
And then on the opposite side there, we do have a clear backfield. Now, with all the injuries Arizona has sustained, it is clearly Michael Carter's backfield. In this last game, he had 30 snaps. Demarcott with 18. He ended up with 13 total touches. Now, he gets to play the Cincinnati Bengals, who by the way are the second best matchup for your fantasy running backs. So he has every opportunity to end up being this this surprise, you know, 20 point scorer, 16 point scorer in week number 17. So he is a much better start. Um, you know, in the previous matchup, we talked about names like Rico Dattle and Hubard and Charbanet. I would start Michael Carter over all those names.
Okay, the next match up we're going to look at here is the Steelers at the Browns. Lowest overunder of the week. 34 and a half points. That's the total. I don't think I've seen that number this entire year. I I could be wrong. Someone let me know. But I don't think I've seen a overunder that low this entire season. Steelers are favored by four and a half points. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, they ended up being the entire engine of the Steelers offense last week. Gainwell has absolutely established himself as an important part of this backfield. You know, we weren't really sure how far how long that would last in the season with Gainwell and Warren splitting opportunities, but in this game, they pretty much split snaps down the middle. It was very close. Kenneth Gainwell ends up with 15 touches. We had 16 for Jaylen Warren and they both had a fantastic day against one of the hardest rushing defenses to go up against the Detroit Lions. Jaylen Warren had 29 points. Most of that came on the ground. 26 of his fantasy points came on on the ground. Kenneth Gainwell had about 24 almost 19 of that came through the air. Honestly, Kenneth Gainwell outside of DK Metaf is probably their second best pass catcher. Consider him their wide receiver too on the team. So, both of these guys are spot starts for me. They are low-end RB2s, flexes, guys that you can put out there. The Browns are not the best matchup, but certainly I believe the Steelers will be in control of this game.
On the opposite side, there will be no more Quinch on Judkins for the rest of the year. Unfortunately, he is having a surgery to repair a fractured fibula and a dislocated ankle. The good news is there's no knee damage. So, any Dynasty owners out there, uh, he should be good to go hopefully uh, next year. But, he's not going to play play for the rest of the year. We don't even know if Dylan Samson or Raheem Sanders will be the starter. Samson's dealing with his own injury. I don't think it matters. I just think you need to keep this simple and not play a single Browns running back because the Steelers are actually the third worst matchup for your running backs anyway. So, you're going to be guessing a little bit. It's not a good matchup, especially with your life on the line. I am not trusting a Browns running back, especially not an offense that can sustain any sort of drives.
Okay, moving on to the Jags at the Colts. 46 and a half point overunder. Travis Eten has just completely taken over the Jags backfield. I mean, he is turning into an absolute league winner. He's been so good in this Liam Cohen offense. On Sunday, he had 49 snaps, had 21 total touches, ended up with 16.6 fantasy points. He got it done on the ground in the air. He is their most reliable running back. He faces the Colts, which are a middle of the pack matchup.
On the opposite side, Jonathan Taylor, we said this as soon as Daniel Jones went down. We said, "Hey, lower your expectations for Jonathan Taylor. He's not going to be the same guy where he's out there scoring three touchdowns and 200 rushing yards. It's just not going to be the same offense without Daniel Jones." So, we are still going to label him a mustart because of volume because he is an elite NFL uh player, but you know, you certainly don't expect him to be a 30-point scorer in this week.
Okay, let's move on to the Bucks at the Dolphins. 45 12 point overunder. The Bucks are currently favored by five and a half points. Now, yes, Bucky Irving I am labeling a must start, but I want you to hear where I'm coming from here, okay? In two of his four games, he scored a touchdown since he's come back from that injury. However, in the other two games, Shawn Tucker has vultured a touchdown from him, and I don't see that stopping anytime soon. This is now like three or four weeks in a row where Shawn Tucker comes in on the goal line and scores a rushing touchdown. I mean, the guy is barely contributing anything as a running back outside of just vulturing touchdowns. So, I have lowered Bucky Irving. He's not a top 10 play. He's not a top 15 play. He's my RB16. The hope is that the Bucks will be in control of this game and Bucky Irving will have time to shine in the second half. Although, I can't guarantee a touchdown. And there totally is a reality here where he only ends up with, let's say, I don't know, eight, nine points. That is a complete reality we have to recognize.
On the opposite side, you're going to start Devon Achan. I don't need to convince you to start one of the best running backs in fantasy football. In fact, this is funny because my dumbass should have picked Devon Achan in the Flock League draft. I probably would have been the playoffs instead of picking Bucky Irving. My ranking said it. I went with my heart. Should have gone with my rankings. Let's uh let's get better next year.
Okay. Patriots at Jets. 42 and a half point overunder. This is tied for the largest spread of the week and it's in favor of New England. I could see Raandre Stevenson having a huge day in week 17. I'm ranking him as my RB18. I don't believe Trayvon Henderson will be out there. He left the game on Sunday with a concussion. He didn't come back into the game. Typically, it takes at least a week for these guys to clear concussion protocol. There are some exceptions, you know, like CD Lamb came back uh recently, but the vast majority of people who have a concussion, they do miss the next week. So, I would anticipate Henderson gone. Of course, if Henderson is active and he's playing, he would be inside the top 15 of my rankings. And Stephvenson would be more of a spot start. But thinking about the game flow here against the New York Giants, they are the tied for the largest favorites of the week, the Patriots are. So, they should be up in this game, controlling, you know, the the the pace of play in the second half. I could see a big day from the running backs in New England. That's why I'm labeling Stevenson my RB18. Of course, like I said, if there's no uh if Henderson comes back, he would be a must start. Stevenson will be a flexible name, but the Jets are the third best matchup for your running backs and clearly they're in a situation where the running backs could eat on Sunday.
On the opposite side there, we just have no reason to tell you to start Bruce Hall anymore. You know, he's a very talented player. That's not the question. The question is, can the offense sustain any drives whatsoever? And so far, the answer has been no. Last Sunday, Bruce Hall had 18 total touches that ended up with just 8.3 fantasy points. It is back-to-back weeks where Isaiah Davis outscores him in fantasy football. I just I can't rationally start Bruce Hall at this point.
Okay, let's go to the Saints at the Titans. Uh this is our 12th matchup of the week. 38 and a half point overunder, the third lowest of the week. Saints are favored by three points. They are on a roll. Tyler Shuck is slinging the ball. Unfortunately, it just doesn't really matter who their running back is in New Orleans because there's not really much value. They are splitting touches both between, you know, Audrey Estime as well as Evan Hull. They're both getting plenty of opportunities, but unfortunately, it's just not leading to any fantasy success. You know, Evick Estate ends up with nine touches. Evan with five. It's just not leading to any big fantasy day. It's not a a matchup you would necessarily go out there and chase. Two bad teams. It could be a competitive game. I prefer to avoid the Saints backfield entirely if you can.
On the opposite side, Tony Pard and Taj Spears both had pretty good days on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. It was technically a tough matchup. However, the Chiefs are so bad right now without Patrick Mahomes. I think you're seeing how much he contributes to that team that uh they were able to feature both of their running backs, right? Taj Spears ended up with 18 touches. Tony Pard with 21. Taj got more of the work in the air. But they're both guys that give you a safer floor this week, so you could put them in there. But of course, if the Saints are competitive, you might see a scenario where only one of them ends up being relevant. So, it's not exactly the most confident backfield that you can go out there and play in week 17.
Okay, let's jump to the Giants at the Raiders. 42 and a half point overunder. Uh, this is a game where you got two clear must starts in Tyrone Tracy and Ashton Genty. Tyrone Tracy might RB 17. Tra Genty's inside the top 10 this week. These are two defenses that you like going up against for your running backs. The Giants are the best matchup for your running backs. The Raiders are top six. So, both Tracy and Jy should get plenty of work. They should return and at least it's not like a, you know, a David versus Goliath scenario. Both of these are really bad teams. It should be a competitive game. The spread is only 1.5 points. So, both Tracy and Genty, I would say, are must starts this week.
All right, moving on to the Eagles at the Bills. 45 and a half point overunder. The Bills are favored at home. Saquon Barkley a must start. He should have a great day against the Buffalo Bills defense, which you want to attack them on the ground. They're very vulnerable on the ground as a defense. And then on the opposite side, of course, James Cook is a mustart. Doesn't matter what matchup he's got. He's always in your lineup. And with all the Josh Allen concern, McDermott did come out and said, as far as I'm aware, he'll be available this week. So, we should have Josh Allen in there ready to go. So, two clear must starts here. Cook, Saquon. These are guys that are that are you're hoping are going to bring you to a fantasy championship.
Okay, Sunday Night Football, we got the Bears at the 49ers. And in this matchup, it is tied for the second highest overunder of the week at 50 and a half points. The 49ers are favored, but it's a two and a half point spread. So, it should be a very competitive game. Of course, you're going to start Christian McCaffrey. Like I said two weeks ago, if you have him, congratulations. You're probably going to make the finals. And here you are watching this video. you made the finals with Christian McCaffrey.
On the opposite side, DeAndre Swift and Kanongi, they're both getting plenty of opportunities in this Bears backfield, but Swift has just been more the more reliable guy, the guy that that is getting more opportunities through the air. That gives them a safer floor in fantasy football, but they're both getting their opportunities. 35 to 29 snaps last week. Manongi with 13 touches. Uh Swift with 15. If you're going to start one, it would be Swift, but both could end up being having a a fine fantasy day.
All right, last game of week 17. Rams at Falcons. This is Monday Night Football. It's the fourth highest overunder, 49 and a half points. The Rams are heavy favorites in this game. Bejun Robinson, of course, he's going to be in your lineup. It's a terrible matchup, but keep it simple, stupid. I say this to myself all the time. Don't overthink it. You start your stars and Bean Robinson is the definition of a superstar.
Now on the opposite side, Kairen Williams is going to continue to be a must start for me, but I can recognize that we are starting to see a legit split down the middle both between Kairen Williams and Blake Cororm. Uh that is not, you know, just, you know, hyperbole. It's legitimately happening o happening over the course of the last four weeks. In this last game, for example, Kairen Williams dominated snaps, but from a touches perspective, we still saw Blake Korn with 16 touches. So, he still had plenty of opportunities and ended up being the highest scorer in that game amongst him and Kairen Williams. So, Blake's gonna get his, but Kiran is still the guy that I prefer to start if you're going to start one of these names.
Guys, I appreciate you watching the video. Do me a massive favor. Smash the like button to show some love if you found any value in today's video. Subscribe. And last thing I'll say is these videos today, the wide receiver video will come out here soon. These will be the last videos we post of the year. I will be live one time this week. So, make sure if you want to get your start sit questions in for our live stream, you get them in early. I will be live one more time for the rest of the year. I will not be active during week 18. I take two weeks off every year to be with my family Christmas, New Year's. Um, so definitely make sure that you are submitting your questions this week. If you got any questions you want help answering, you can check out the pin comment where you can submit a question through the Flop Fancy website. Appreciate y'all watching and I'll see you guys in the wide receiver video coming out very soon. Nothing below. Draft with me every night this week on the Fast Draft app where there are thousands of dollars to be won weekly. Getting started is easy. Download the Fast Draft app. Use the promo code land at signup to get your deposit match up to $50. That's up to 10 free entries on us. And when you finish your first DFS contest, I'll send you my weekly rankings completely free. Check out the link in the pin comment to start drafting today.