Transcription
I've done the research so you don't have to. Over 20 years of fantasy football finishes to easily come away with the list of five or six guys that are not draftable. This same data last year had us avoiding Jerry Judy who was drafted as a wide receiver three. He was meaningless. Malik Neighbors who was a round one pick. Garrett Wilson who was going in the third. It avoided Calvin Ridley who was getting drafted as a wide receiver three and obviously he was unusable. Jacobe Meyers and then Chris Ave was the one wide receiver that the data said to avoid that ended up absolutely smashing mainly because obviously he stayed healthy and didn't deal with the concussions.
But if you go back and look at the video in which I told y'all not to draft these guys like Garrett Wilson, Jerry Judy, or Calvin Ridley, the overwhelming sentiment in the comment section was sports books don't know what they are doing. They don't know how to project out offenses that are going to finish at the top of the league verse the bottom of the league. We have I think you are underestimating how big of an upgrade Russell Wilson is over Daniel Jones. That top comment didn't age well. Malik had a record- setting rookie year with the worst possible quarterback room. It could never be worse than it was last year. No way I'm fading him. Raiders projecting to be the sixth worst offense is completely ignoring all the moves they made. They won't be elite necessarily, but they'll be closer to a top 15 team than a bottom five. And of course, the Raiders are the worst offense in the league. And if you would have listened to me and sports books, you would have realized that the floor was incredibly low and there were red flags all over the place.
I want to go through and explain my thought process here and explain all the data. So, if we go back since 2004 and track every offense that has finished as a bottom five offense in the NFL in points per game and track where that wide receiver finished in fantasy football, that was their top name, we will come away with some striking results because we can look at 110 wide receiver ones during this sample. And out of those 110, keep in mind that's 22 years. We've only had 58 of them be wide receiver threes or better. That's the top 36 named. We've only had 30 of them be top 24 wide receivers or better. And we've only had four of them manage to be a top 12 option. Of course, one of those guys was Crystal L this past season. Congrats if you hit on him. In reality, my opinion, it was an outlier and you maybe got lucky. But the most striking data that we can take away here is zero wide receivers from this data set finished as a top six option. So if you are going to be a wide receiver in a bottom five offense in the NFL, you have no chance at being an elite wide receiver in fantasy and more likely than not you're not even going to be a top 24 guy. You have less than a 30% chance of that happening.
So, what I do every year is I go and look at what sports books are telling us are going to be the worst offenses in the league and I want to make sure that I am avoiding those wide receivers. Again, every year in the comment section, we have people saying like, "Oh, I mean, how often are sports books actually right?" Last year, the offenses they projected to be in the bottom five. The Raiders were there. We flagged that. The Browns were there, the Titans were there, the Jets were there, and the Saints were there. Every offense sports books said was going to be a bottom six offense last season, they finished as a bottom five offense in the league. Duh. Sports books know what they are doing. They have all the information, all the data at their disposal and we should be taking their data and we should be using it in our fantasy drafts.
So, let's go through and let's look at who they project to be the worst offenses in the NFL this season and talk about their wide receiver rims. Full transparency, some of these guys are very cheap and some of them I think you are completely fine to draft. Now, the worst offensive projection that we have currently this season, which you can see all these projections on flockfantasy.com. Just go to the post page, is going to be the Arizona Cardinals. Now, this was a surprise to me. And I'll be honest, when we first tracked this data a couple months ago, the worst projection offense was actually the Cleveland Browns, but since then, you've had to hold out with Jacobe Brassette. Now, you have some off the- field stuff with investigation into Arizona, and I guess sports books are lower on the Cardinals than they've ever been. The Cardinals project to only score 18 and a half points per game this next season, which if we go through and if we look at where this was in comparison to the Arizona Cardinals last season, this is about 2 and a half points per game fewer. So obviously sports books are projecting that they get worse. And let's go through and let's look at where their wide receivers are getting drafted because the big concern I always have with these garbage projections will be are their wide receivers getting drafted as a top 24 name, right? Because sometimes they're cheap. You can go through, take the shot, and if the offense is better than people expect it to be, then obviously you have room to go to the upside because these sportsbook calls, while they were 100% accurate last season, that's not going to be the case every year.
And right now with Marvin Harrison Jr. specifically, he's coming off back-to-back seasons finishing as a wide receiver four in fantasy. The wide receiver 42 in points per game his rookie year, the wide receiver 41 in points per game in 2025. If you're using flockfantasy.com and looking at the consensus ADP sheet, you'll see that he has an ADP of pick 66. Off the board is wide receiver 31. I mean, if we're looking at different platforms obviously is more expensive on some, cheaper on others. Like right now in your ESPN draft, he's going at pick 59. In my opinion, taking a wide receiver that's never finished as a top 36 guy that is projected out to be in the worst offense in the NFL, which we've seen that data say they don't have wide receiver one upside. taking him in round five seems ludicrous. I know the name appeal. I understand the talent, but round five is just damn expensive. However, if you're going through and if you're looking at other platforms like Sleeper, he's going in the seventh round. He has an ADP of pick 75 there. And on Yahoo, he's also going at 72. So, for me, I think Marvin Harrison is a completely fine pick. If we are talking Sleeper Yahoo drafts where you're able to get him in the seventh round, but if you had to take him in the fifth, I wouldn't do that. If you're looking at his flockfantasy.com average ranking there, he has an average ranking of pick 66. So again, if you're using our draft sheets, it would recommend that you're taking him in the seventh if you wanted to get a decent value on him in those sleeper and Yahoo drafts.
Now, there is another wide receiver that we need to talk about in Arizona. Somebody that I actually drafted a ton last year, and last year we actually profited about 27,000 in drafts. A big reason why was Michael Wilson. Now, in your regular reddraft league, Michael Wilson was a wide receiver that just came randomly off the waiverwire that you could start at the end of the season, but I had actually drafted him in a ton of underdog best drafts. So, it was really exciting to get that breakout in the second half of the year. However, if we're looking at where Michael Wilson's currently getting drafted after finishing as a top two wide receiver in fantasy in weeks 11 through 18, go to the player comparison on flockfantasy.com. Look at his weeks 1 through 10 verse weeks 11 through 18. He was a top three wide receiver in fantasy football in the second half of the season. I'm surprised to see how smart fantasy drafters are at the moment because instead of Michael Wilson being drafted anywhere close to a top 20 guy, he has an 80p right now wide receiver 40. I mean in sleeper drafts, he's pretty expensive. He's going in the seventh round there. But in ESPN drafts, he has an ADP of 96. In Yahoo drafts, he has an ADP of 94. Hell, in underdog drafts, he has an ADP of pick 100. And keep in mind, in my opinion, he's like the perfect wide receiver for best baseball. Now, I'll be honest. If you're in your regular Yahoo League and you only start two wide receivers in one flex, when we get down here to like wide receiver 40, 41, 42 in drafts, probably not going to make a difference, right? Just because it's a such a high threshold for a player to actually hit your starting lineup that this is a player that I'm more excited about in a league in which you start multiple flex spots or maybe you start three wide receivers.
Of course, if you just want to make sure that you are making all the correct adjustments to your exact league settings and your exact draft platform, we have over 50 draft sheets posted on flockfantasy.com. You put in your exact league settings, the exact draft platform you're on, and you are going to get those tailormade adjustments to those ranking set for you to dominate your drafts this year. On top of that, if you're a member of flockfantasy.com, you're going to get those realtime draft assistance for your Sleeper, your ESPN, your Yahoo drafts as well. If you're not already a member of the flock, you can find the link in the description as well as the comment section. The season pass is still available for only $34 right now. And if you sign up with code flock, you're going to get free start set and trade questions that you can ask me during the season as well.
Now, let's move over to the New York Jets. So, the Jets project to be the second to worst offense in the league. Now, yes, I understand people are going to go down in the comment section and they're going to say, "Oh, no, Gino Smith's really good. Don't you know?" Just like they made an argument for the Raiders to be good last year, even though sports books know more than you do, they know more than I do. And they're telling us that the Jets are going to be the second to worst offense in the league. And this is where I get scared because again, going back to the data that we've already showed y'all. If you're a wide receiver that's in a bottom five offense, you have a 27% chance of finishing as a top 24 wide receiver and only a 3% chance as finishing as a top 12 option. So effectively, you're in a bottom five offense of the wide receiver position. GG's. You're not going to be a top 12 player. And also, you're not even guaranteed to be a top 24 name.
And we go over and look at Garrett Wilson. Right now, his average ADP across all platforms is the wide receiver 18. He's going in the middle of the third round in ESPN drafts with an ADP of pick 31. I think taking Garrett Wilson and offense that's going to be this bad with the additional target competition of Omar Cooper as well as the additional target competition of Kenyan Sadi, both round one pass catchers. It's brutal. I I can't imagine taking Garrett Wilson in this offensive environment in the third. We've seen Garrett Wilson for a large stretch of his NFL career being a really bad offense and he's never cracked 15 points per game. And we go over and we look at other draft platforms. I think the more appropriate price for Garrett Wilson is the middle of the fourth round. At least that's where he's currently going in Yahoo drafts, right? If you take him in the middle of the fourth, especially the end of the fourth, I like that because from a talent perspective, if the Jets somehow manage to be an average offense this season, which that's not what the projections are saying, then I could see Garrett Wilson finishing as a top 10 wide receiver, and that's in the range of outcomes. But again, round three for Wilson would just be absolutely brutal.
And then as we go over and look at Omar Cooper, while I do think that he is going to have a role here for the New York Jets, I wouldn't draft Omar Cooper at all in your Yahoo draft, in your ESPN draft, in your sleeper draft. I think he's an incredible pick and like an underdog draft because you take him as a wide receiver six. If he turns out to be a wide receiver three, then that's a pretty big hit. But this is going to be somebody that you throw on your watch list if you like and you would go through and you would pick him up off the waiver wire if anything.
Now, let's move over to our next offense that we need to discuss. And we're going to be pretty short here because the Cleveland Browns don't have anybody being drafted highly at all. Casey Conception is the number one wide receiver for the Cleveland Browns and he is going off the board as wide receiver 52. In sleeper drafts at the moment, he has an ADP pick 144. So very similar to Omar Cooper. People are looking at this Brown situation and they're going, "Well, yeah, Casey Conception has the talent profile. They aren't drafting him. He's a waiverwire player or he's somebody that you take in the double digit rounds. I'll say in ESPN you actually have to make a real investment into him where there he's going at pick 98. But even though the data says that the wide receivers from these bottom offenses are screwed, again, it all comes down to cost. If you can draft Casey Conception in the last round of your draft, second to last round of your draft, somehow someway the quarterback play ends up being okay in Cleveland and the Browns are a middle of the road offense. I could see Conception being a low-end wide receiver, too. So, I'm fine with you grabbing him at the very end of your draft. I'm not really too concerned based on this data because it seems like the market, they already understand this with the Browns, and he is being heavily discounted.
Now, going over to the Miami Dolphins, it's the same exact scenario here. I'm not going to be able to sit here and tell you like, oh my gosh, Miami is gonna be really bad. So, you know what you should do? You should avoid every Miami Dolphin wide receiver. Well, the first Miami Dolphins wide receiver off the board in fantasy drafts of the moment goes at wide receiver 79. You're not going to see a single wide receiver get selected in your fantasy draft from Miami, which I think probably should be the case. Obviously, in an underdog basketball draft, cool, call your shot at the end, take somebody in round 18. But in your regular ESPN sleeper, Yahoo League, don't take any of these Miami players. I guess Chris Bell has an ADP of 142 in ESPN leagues. Don't take Chris Bell. But I don't think it's the end of the world if you do.
Now going over to the Raiders, very similar to what we have with the Cleveland Browns and the Miami Dolphins. Like the Raiders at the moment obviously have some top names like Bowers as well as Genty. But their first wide receiver off the board is Jaylen Naylor, wide receiver 62. So people are going, okay, he's a waverwire pick. If he pops off early and maybe Fernando Mendoza really takes over halfway through the season and then all of a sudden he looks great, you could pick him up for the second half stretch, but none of these Raiders wide receivers are getting drafted anyway, which I do think is the appropriate action by the market and you would only ever consider them in an underdog best blood draft. So the Browns, Dolphins, Raiders, while technically they're on this list, it's not like their wide receivers are being overdrafted.
Now, something that does scare me a bit would be the Tennessee Titans technically coming in here as the sixth worst projection, as well as the Carolina Panthers. They're currently tied with a projection of 20.7 points per game this next year. But if you really look at these projections stacked up, the Tennessee Titans project to score a point and a half more per game than what you have with the Raiders for the difference between the fifth worst offense and the sixth worst offense at the projections. And if we actually carry that point and a half over for the Tennessee Titans, I mean, you have to go up to like the 21st projected offense with the Denver Broncos. So, there's a pretty big tier gap between the bottom five offenses with projections this year and then all the other teams. So, I'm actually fine drafting Cardell Tate with where he goes. Like, at the moment, Cardinal Tate's off the board wide receiver 29. I'm actually okay with drafting Tedo McMillan. I actually love the Tet pick. he's going at wide receiver 17 because while technically these project to be the sixth and seventh worst offenses in the league, they're a pretty large step up from the bottom five team.
So, all in all, I know we just threw a ton of data at y'all. The main thing I want you to be worrisome of is in your ESPN leagues, don't take Marvin Harrison in the fifth round. You're fine to take him in round seven in your Yahoo drafts. You're fine to take him in round seven of your sleeper drafts. And I would especially avoid Garrett Wilson in the third round of your fantasy drafts this year. I would need him to wait until the very end of the fourth. If you're playing in those leagues where you only start two wide receiver, one flex. If you're playing in a league where you have multiple flex spots or you start three wide receivers, then I'm okay with you pushing them up to the beginning of the fourth round.
Of course, I want to remind you, please, for the love of God, make sure you understand how the small changes with your starting lineup requirements, with your roster requirements, with your scoring, impact fantasy football values, and your draft strategy. That's why we built out 50 plus custom draft sheets for your exact league settings for your exact draft platform. That way, you can have the best team in your fantasy league this year. And we also have it as only a $34 charge for the entire season. The best deal in fantasy football. It's not even really close. Just make sure you sign up with code flock on flockfantasy.com. That way you're going to get those free questions you can ask me in the live streams. Links in the description. It's in the comment section. I really appreciate you. And of course we'll talk about the running backs soon and the top offenses in the league. So just make sure you are subscribed.