Transcription
I think this is a very critical point. So, if gold breaks below there, then I think we're going to see it hit 3,600 very quickly. I think it'll be a very quick drop. This 4,000 mark, I think is very, very critical.
Silver really needs to hold 60 or like $61 per ounce. If it can hold that, the long-term bullish picture is pointing to more or less $75 silver, which would bring silver up to about 175. But, if silver breaks or $61 or $60 per ounce, we're probably going to have see a very [snorts] quick drop down into this $40 mark, which is a 40% haircut from where it is.
So, we saw the low in gold based on Fibonacci theory from a long-term super cycle of bull marketing gold. If gold can hold these levels, we are going to see gold on the next major rally go up to about $8,600, which is pretty darn exciting. The stock market moves up more so first. I think we're still going to see markets people move into the stock market. Gold will build a base. As the stock market starts to get choppy, money starts to rotate for gold for safety, the US dollar, the strength of the dollar turning a corner.
Well, yeah, I can show you what what looks to be unfolding for gold. If we take a look at the chart, let me just pull that up. There's definitely a lot going on, a lot of emotions flying in the precious metals space. This is the daily chart of gold. Let's just zoom back. As you can see here, we did have that precipitous waterfall really started to, I think, test investors and and precious metal holders of what is going on and is gold going to break down and sell off in a big way.
If we look at gold and just kind of look at these recent lows, we've got a lot of consolidation through here from uh late 2025. And then we had a wick low over here where we got into a huge waterfall sell-off. Volume ramped up. And then we tested this low just about a week ago. And so, this was a this is a very big test. Now, there's a couple of scenarios here. Obviously, right now gold is in a downtrend from a short-term standpoint. So, we have as a short-term trader gold is making a series of lower highs, it's making a series of lower lows, and it actually is still pointing to lower pricing.
Now, the flip side of that as a long-term investor, the long-term trend is actually bullish. We've got a very strong uptrend. It's called consolidating, meaning it's pulling back in somewhat of a controlled manner, building what could be a launchpad, a bull flag pattern pointing to higher pricing. And so, depending what gold does here, and silver is very much similar, there's a very big move uh pending. And so, if we were to look at the the bullish in this scenario for gold at this point, let's just go back to the ultimate kind of low that we saw uh back early in 2025.
>> Gold can look strongest right before it punishes the most late buyers. As Chris Vermeulen points out here, the recent waterfall and retest sequence resembles a market forcing emotional exit before declaring direction. The overlooked signal is not price weakness, but controlled compression after a major advance. Retail often reads consolidation as failure, while institutions read it as inventory transfer. If this support breaks, the narrative changes fast. If it holds, positioning changes before headlines do. Next, Chris Vermeulen exposes why short-term selling pressure may be disguising a much larger capital rotation.
>> We saw the low in gold. I love to use a Fibonacci extension. This is based on Fibonacci theory, which is pretty much how the whole universe, the world, everything seems to function based on Fibonacci theory telling us the strength of a move uh to the upside, and then you can figure out how strong or how much the market pulled back to the downside, it tells us where the market naturally is going to want to go. So, from a long-term super cycle of bull marketing gold, if gold can hold these levels, we are going to see gold on the next major rally gold to about $8,600, which is pretty darn exciting. Uh that is the where this whole super cycle in gold is pointing to one big final euphoric move. Probably something in the world is going to fall apart. Who knows, but it'll there'll probably be a reason for gold rocketing up there at that point.
Now, the flip side of that we need to be aware of is also the the downside potential, which let's go and and zoom in on this is and this is what people need to be aware of. The downside potential using Fibonacci based on the most recent sell-off and the bounce that we've had. This tells us where the downside target is for gold and that level here is about 3,600. So, from where gold is right now, Elijah, we could see gold potentially take about a 15% haircut to that level. And that would actually be uh a bull a bullish signal long-term. A long-term investor, if we see gold and silver come down to 36, uh this this brings us back to a very unique situation, which is right before we saw gold and silver go into that euphoric kind of parabolic move uh late last year and early this year.
>> The most dangerous market phase is when bullish targets survive, but entry timing gets destroyed. According to Chris Vermeulen, the same structure projecting upside toward $8,600 also leaves room for a sharp reset first. That contradiction matters because euphoric targets attract attention, while drawdown risk gets ignored. Wealth preservation is not about being right on direction. It is surviving the path institutions force participants through before repricing begins. Next, Chris Vermeulen reveals why the strongest long-term setup may require a painful short-term washout first.
>> And so, the market is very efficient. Whoever got in late, if you weren't in metals and you got sucked into this excitement and you bought up here, the market is likely going to test you. It's going to try to shake you out and come back down and put you underwater or put you back to break even and make you want to get out of it and then it will take off without you. And so the market is based on the analysis here, it is pointing to it. That's where it wants to naturally go. So, I think there's some great opportunity in gold. I think there's potential for it to have a pullback to 3600 still. Maybe this even happens over the next month or two and then it could it rocket higher. But if gold holds these lows, this low that it put in over the past week and starts to head higher, then we're probably going to 8600.
And there's actually a really interesting chart. If we go back and look at the weekly chart of the SP 500, so this candlestick chart in the background, red and green, that's the S&P 500 weekly chart. The yellow line is the chart of gold. And what I want to show here is we're kind of going into this phase. The stock market is starting to ramp up and I think we might have this one more big euphoric kind of move in the stock market, which is going to be like the AI bubble kind of blowing off. Everybody finally piling in who's not in yet creates a a strong move up in the stock market. And this yellow line here is gold. Money's been moving out of gold and into stocks. And so gold's been pulling back. And so where I think we are right now in this gold and stock market kind of scenario,
>> markets went up, but defensive assets stopped confirming the move and that divergence rarely stays quiet. What Chris Vermeulen is highlighting is that late cycle rallies often attract maximum participation exactly when risk-adjusted returns begin deteriorating. The overlooked tension is capital leaving gold not because confidence returned, but because performance chasing intensified. For investors protecting purchasing power, timing matters more than narrative enthusiasm. Next, Chris Vermeulen unravels why stock market strength and gold weakness may actually be the same warning.
>> I think is actually very similar to what happened over here and where we are in the stock market back in 2007. So, let's go back and take a look at what happened back then. Over if we were to overlay these scenarios, we are in this point here where gold has just pulled back. If we were to think of where we are today, a very sharp pullback. The stock market is pushing higher. We just had a bit of a correction over the past couple of weeks with the stock market and now the stock market wants to push higher with one last big push. And this was the stock market top before the stock market crashed like 55% almost.
What we're what we're looking for now is if gold holds these lows. So, as if we were thinking of this was today's chart, gold put in these two lows and gold is technically trading like right here. If gold holds these lows where we are right now, it's equivalent to this chart where gold will start to turn up. It will kick back into an uptrend from both a short-term trader and a long-term investor standpoint. And then gold shoots higher to 8600. The stock market moves up more so first. I think we're still going to see markets people move into the stock market. Gold will build a base. As the stock market starts to get choppy, money starts to rotate for gold for safety and then we see a big move to the upside.
So, that is a really interesting scenario and what could could happen before we go off this huge financial reset which who knows what the trigger will be, what will call the financial reset after. We never name it until it's broken until we everybody throws a label on it. The crowd usually calls it a boom right before history renames it excess. Chris Vermeulen's argument suggests that the real comparison is not price levels but sequence. Equity optimism, defensive apathy, then sudden capital rotation. Institutional money rarely waits for official recession language before repositioning. For wealth protection, the risk is not missing upside, but assuming rising indexes equal declining systemic stress. Next, Chris Vermeulen reveals the hidden transition phase where confidence peaks and capital quietly escapes.
>> But if we were to look at this this chart going forward, I can't really squish this gold chart down at the at this point, I don't think. Let me just see if I can. If we were to squish this chart down, we could see the stock market uh continue to push up here and then start to get into some some volatile market conditions. Gold will start to stabilize and start to turn up. And as the stock market starts to break down and sell off in a big way, we see gold shoot up to that 8,600. So, it's a really interesting scenario how this could unfold. And I can feel the tension in the air. I can feel the the bubble, the euphoric move with precious uh sorry, with uh the AI space because it's so big, Elisha. It's really dragging the whole market up and you know, I have the same feeling of what happened earlier this year with precious metals. You can feel the energy, the excitement, the euphoric, but the precious metals space is very tiny. When it comes to AI, it's the whole world. It's every person, every kid, every grandparent is in interested in this. So, this is not like this has got a lot more power. This is a big train that's going to be difficult to slow down. I do think it's starting to slow down a little bit. I think we're starting to get uh people are really piling in and I I it's just a matter of time when it runs out. But that's the scenario that I see unfolding. This is the bullish case. We see stocks muscle higher for another uh couple of months. The The precious metals hold their ground and then we eventually see the precious metals have that one big euphoric and the next big euphoric blow-off phase before we see a bigger correction.
>> Nobody talks about bubbles while they still feel productive. This is where Chris Vermeulen's thesis shifts from metal pricing into crowd psychology and capital concentration. The overlooked signal is not AI enthusiasm itself, but how broad participation can delay risk recognition. When every demographic starts chasing one theme, portfolio protection becomes less about returns and more about optionality. Next, Chris Vermeulen exposes why late stage momentum often finances the next precious metal surge.
>> So, I mean, I know I covered a lot there, but that's the scenario that we need to be aware of is those two for gold and and silver's, you know, kind of follow suit.
>> You mentioned the $4,000 level being critical that gold holds that. So, is it your view that really the next couple weeks of trading could determine whether we go up or down in the short term?
>> It is. I think this is a very critical point. So, if gold breaks below there, then I think we're going to see it hit 3,600 very quickly. I think it'll be a very quick drop. This 4,000 mark, I think, is very, very critical. So, for example, like when we look at gold, gold these blue circles here, this is that 4,000 mark that it really needs to hold.
Now, if we're to to look at the other side of this, if we were to go and take a look over at the dollar, the dollar is kind of an inverse picture. We have the dollar testing right up resistance. And so, this is the big question. If the dollar here breaks out and really starts to pop and scream higher, then we're probably going to see 4,000 on gold be broken, and we're going to see gold and silver sell off and and head on down towards that $3,600 per ounce level. So, right now the dollar is breaking out. I think it's doing the opposite of what Trump wanted. You know, you put war in there, you and all of this stuff, it's going to strengthen the dollar. We're starting to see a breakout. Uh so, watching the dollar to me is one of the most important things. And you look at the currency market, it's about like eight times bigger than the stock market. Currencies are global.
>> If this level fails, the move afterward may happen faster than investors can emotionally process. As Christopher Molen points out here, the real battleground is not gold alone, but whether dollar strength becomes self-reinforcing. Public narratives focus on policy intentions, while capital flows respond to pressure and liquidity. Investors waiting for confirmation often discover confirmation arrives after repricing. Next, Christopher Molen reveals why currency markets may be sending a message equities still ignore.
>> And we have been seeing, you know, the US dollar, the strength of the dollar turning a corner. And it has potential to have a very big move to the upside. In fact, if we look at like the monthly chart, the dollar has been channeling up for quite a while. I mean, it has been channeling in this upward direction. And it is carving out a bottom. This little bottom formation that it has right here is very significant. We've saw another bottoming formation over here. We had um depending on how you want to look at it, there was a bull flag here or there was a consolidation. It broke out here. We keep seeing these great big moves to the upside, and the market is primed for a huge rally in the US dollar, which means metals could get hit temporarily.
So, this is the biggest point is we just need to see how if gold can hold that that uh $4,000 mark, and if the dollar gets rejected and continues to trade sideways, then then gold will move higher. Uh also, if the stock market does scream higher, then and we see gold start to take off, it also probably means the dollar is actually having a very sharp breakdown. It will probably come back down into this lower support zone that we saw back in 2020 and back all the way back into uh 2018. So, we're at a very big turning point. It's like make or break it for a massive the next massive move in metals and stocks. The big question is do things muscle higher and are game-changing or do things break down in a big way? That is the big turning point we're at. I do think long-term gold is is in silver will do very, very well, but there's going to be some weakness along the uh along that path.
>> The Fed can talk easing while the dollar quietly tightens conditions underneath everyone. According to Crisper Moilanen, the dollar structure may matter more than metals headlines over the next phase. That creates a contradiction. Stronger risk assets and stronger currency rarely coexist without hidden pressure building. Savers focus only on gold targets can miss the macro force driving timing. Next, Crisper Moilanen exposes the signals that determines whether metals reset or launch.
>> Now, as for silver, you were looking at silver breaking below that $70 level, getting as low as the low 60s last week, now bouncing a bit here and there. Um but what are some of the critical levels that you're looking for on silver?
>> Yeah, so silver is quite a bit the same. It's dipped down into this this support level, these these lows. It's had a technical bounce. Uh and it is pointing to lower pricing. And then when we look at silver and use the Fibonacci uh price pattern, silver had its initial drop and then it's had its bounce and it's working through this whole level. Now, there's some interesting levels here on silver. If we take a look, there's this 618 retracement. That's called the golden ratio. That is the sweet spot for Fibonacci theory. What it means is if price sells off and then has a bounce, it's naturally going going to move to the 618 level, which it did right here. Typically, if you bounce off that level and pause, you're usually going to go down and hit the 100% level, which is this one mark, so around $40 per ounce. So, this is the This is the very critical level for silver. Silver really needs to hold 60 or like $61 per ounce. If it can hold that, the long-term bullish picture is pointing to more or less $75 silver, which would bring 70 would bring silver up to about 175, a very big gain from where it is. But, if silver breaks 31 or sorry, 61 or $60 per ounce, we're probably going to see a very quick drop down into this $40 mark, which is a 40% haircut from where it is. So, I mean, either way there's a big opportunity. The question is right now, both gold and silver are giving mixed signals.
>> Silver bulls love upside targets, but drawdowns are where long-term positioning actually gets decided. What Chris Vermeulen is highlighting is that a move from the low 60s toward $40 would not automatically invalidate a larger cycle. It would test conviction and liquidity. The part rarely discussed is that volatility transfers metal from impatient holders to disciplined capital. Protecting wealth sometimes means preserving cash before preserving conviction.
>> Short-term, the trend is down. Long-term, the trend is up. We've got the dollar at a critical turning point. We've got wars coming to an end or you know, the Strait of Hormuz getting figured out potentially. We've got a lot of things shifting right now. And so, we just need to wait and see if silver can hold this level and start to move higher, it will generate us a new buy signal and we can take advantage of the next leg higher. If silver breaks down, I am expecting it to drop very quickly to $40 per ounce, which I believe will be a steal. Uh that is a point where both for gold and silver I would be moving in and buying a bunch of physical metals. Uh we did close out our metals at 111, uh way up at up here, and we're waiting for the market to reset. The market could trade sideways for many years. It could pull back substantially. Either way, I don't want to hold an asset that is, you know, at one point short-term overvalued. I'd rather get in later when it is starting to run again, or get in at a sharp discount and reload. That is the whole strategy I focus on around precious metals. Uh so, those are the scenarios. Gold and silver have the same scenarios. We're at a major turning point. The question is, do we get long again when it goes a little bit higher and and generates a buy signal, or do we pick it up at a killer deal when the dollar spikes up and we see precious metals get beat up and short-term oversold?
>> Next, Chris Vermeulen reveals why silver's most bullish setup may still begin with a painful reset. The biggest investing mistake is patience with inactivity and momentum with safety. Chris Vermeulen's argument suggests this phase is less about predicting direction and more about preparing for asymmetric outcomes. The contradiction is that markets feel most uncertain near the moments that create the best future entries. Investors focused only on being early often miss the larger objective, protecting purchasing power through the full cycle.