Transcription
Right, we're just going to keep it simple, very simple, right? We're not talking about the actual underlying factors that cause market reversal, but we're, I'm giving you something, you know, that's very, very close, that is easy to understand. So, once you understand this, whenever we dig deep into the information, which, you know, you will not find within the charts, right, then it will be easier to understand, right?
But for now, what do you focus on? Interest rate triads. Like, you pay attention to them. There are times when price will expand a bit or drop a bit, whatever it may be, whatever it might do. They, the interest rate triads, rarely, you know, form sequential SMT. And the reason for that is because they reflect upon the information from the Forex market or the FX triad, which you already know what that is, right? The X Y E U G B. They also reflect upon the index futures triad, right?
So, so far, we are, you know, focusing on nine markets at the same time, which is unheard of. It's like, you need to focus on one market. No, you need to focus on all of these markets because they're connected. It's like gears, right? They affect one another. When the interest rate triad does something, it affects the Forex market, and whatever the Forex market does, that will affect the index futures, which will affect the stock market, which will affect the cryptocurrency market, right? And that's what it is. This is why price moves. This is why price turns around. This is why price consolidates. There is no other factor which will give you, you know, more precision. Well, there is, and but we will get into that as we, you know, go along.
Look at the expansion that happened today within the interest rate triad, right? Look at the fluctuations that we had within the Forex market. Look at the fluctuations we had within the stock market and the index markets. Interest, right? Look at that. Why did that happen? There were no news events, right? Currently, ICT says don't trade here, don't trade here. So here is something, right, that he will never tell you. You will never know this. I don't even know he knows this. He probably does and just doesn't want to tell us, right? I'm not really sure anymore, but, you know, here it is. On the days when you don't see, right, news events, which market do you expect to be the most probable? That's something that's has never been talked about before. We must understand that price isn't random. It doesn't, there is no mistake that, you know, causes a consolidation or expansion, right? That doesn't exist, not here. It's an algorithm. It follows its rules. It does what it's supposed to do when it's supposed to do it. And the "when" is really important.
So on these days, right here, right, which, you know, currently we, we, it's Tuesday. Tuesday is about to be over. Then we're going to, going to Wednesday tomorrow, where is, where we will see a great amount of volatility. Thursday as well, right? So do you guys remember, um, from Sunday's analysis, everything that I said, right here, right? We can see the price took out this low, which was the low of the previous week, right? So price took this low out and expanded upwards, right? Or our draw on liquidity were, you know, was this, this high right here, which we have seen price trade below this low, expand, retrace, formed a fair value gap, and you're going to learn something new now, right? So pay attention. This is for those who are, you know, trying to learn, trying to pay attention. The ones that just want to become crazy, you won't learn this anywhere else, and it won't make sense to anyone else either. And it's literally just the tip of the iceberg. Most won't be able to understand, right? Crosshair is on. Here we go.
So you can see that here, this low right here, right, is the low that led the expansion like upwards. And before even, you know, going into that, do you remember? I want to see in the chat, do you guys remember what we talked about? Do you remember when we talked about the interest rate market triad? What do we expect? What do we expect? This is exactly what we expected. We expected this low right here, right? And when focusing on the interest rate market, right, we got to pay more, more attention to the T-bond futures, right? More than anything else. Second to the T-bond futures is the tenure, right? The 10-year note. We expected price to take liquidity here and expand. And why did we expect price to expand afterwards? It was, you know, all because of time. Why? This is the second week of the month, right? We took out the previous week's low. So what happens here? This becomes sequential SMT, right? And what solidified this? And you can like see the solid, the solidification right here without even, you know, going here or here, which you can see right here as well. But there are other factors that you can, you know, factor in, right?
So here, this is where you will see the intermarket sequence or SMT, right? Which, you know, suggests higher prices. Once this low wasn't taken out and there, and swing low formed here, this one took out this low right here. You can see they all took out the lows. So if you were just focusing on this market or this triad, you would not see that we had sequential SMT, right? Also, right, something that is important, right? So for this, I have to turn the crosshair on. So on this candle right here, right, you can see that there was a formation of a fair value gap, right? But this is not a regular fair value gap, right? This is actually, you know, the fair value that Michael, what was it, last year or the year before? I'm not, I don't really 100% remember what he called it, but it occurs when, you know, wicks overlap. The implied fair value gap, that's what it is, right? So here we had an implied fair value gap form, and price did not trade into the open of this candle, but it traded into the wick or near the wick afterwards. Price expanded, closed here, and once price opened here, you wouldn't expect price to go below this wick. And why is that? First of all, we had sequence, we had intermarket sequential SMT, right? Here we had price trade into the open of this candle. Well, this did not. So let me show you again. Listen, we're going to, we have a lot of, you know, cracking correlations that we haven't even touched on yet, right?
So here, right, price traded into this, but it formed the implied fair value gap, which is right where price reacted to, right here. See this down closed candle? Price expanded, failed to trade into it here, right? We had price trading into it. This one, right? And remember, whenever you're trading, the best market is to trade. Will be, for example, if you like bonds, you know, treasury notes, you want to trade that which you can. You want to focus on, you know, trading the T-bond futures and the 10-year note, right? These markets will react more, right? But the one in the middle, which you will always see, will be the best market to trade. So even though this expanded more, this would be, you know, give you the most accuracy. But due to the fact that price traded here, failed to trade into the down close candle right here, expanded on this candle right here, where you see price failed to reach here, right? And once this one trades here again, then you could be a buyer. Also, what else happens here? This down closed candle right here, and remember, we're on the four-hour timeframe, and the four-hour timeframe, and we're working within the monthly cycle now, right? This down closed candle right here is below the previous low. This one is above the previous low, right? Which is why price failed to trade into this candle, well, into this candle's open, and we had expansion afterwards, right?
Pay attention. Remember, as you guys realize, we're not really, this is like the Dow of the interest rate triads, right? We don't really trade the Dow. We don't really trade the Dow. We just like use it because it has, you know, certain attributes that we need to take into consideration, right? So here you can see that we failed to trade into this candle here. You can see that we traded into this candle's open, and here you can see that we traded into this candle's close, then expanded a bit. And like, again, the most important thing to understand is this isn't random. We talked about this before. It happened again. You know how long we've been doing this? It's insane, and it doesn't make any sense. We shouldn't be able to be doing this at all. This should be impossible, but here we are. You know, if you can see, you will understand what I'm talking about. If you can't, then you just need to watch it again, backtest. And even after we're finished this year, I, I still believe that we will be barely brushed in the surface. And why is that? Do I not want to tell you everything? Of course, I do. But if I tell you everything in, you know, in a video, it probably, I'll probably be talking for weeks, and then that's not humanly possible, right? I will just be, you know, it will be like me just introducing intermarket sequence of SMT without even talking about Curly Theory and just trying to talk and just just trying to talk about it. And what would happen then? You wouldn't understand. So I have to give you bite-sized, bite-sized amount of, you know, information.
So as you guys can see here, if you're interested in bonds or, you know, treasure notes, whatever, the T-bond futures on the 10-year note will be will always deliver a better price action compared to the 50-year note. Whenever you have this one delivering better price action than these, then these two will usually be in a tight range, and this will be just auto control going against whatever these two are doing, which is why, you know, you usually have the Dow doing whatever is happening here. So here you guys can see we have this, you know, choppy price action, right, within the Forex triad. So first of all, right, we expected price to take this high, this low in regards to the US dollar index. That happened. This high in regard to the Great British pound, it happened. But before, you know, price traded here, what happened exactly, right? So even within, you know, low probability markets, with this is low probability markets, even though we got the direction or the short-term direction, right, it was still low probability. And due to the fact that tomorrow CPI, I currently have no bias. I'm just waiting for, you know, CPI to happen. Or if there is sequential SMT between two sessions, then I will expect CPI to respect, you know, whatever order flow that would suggest, right?
So here, I already showed you guys this, I believe, right? So we had sequential SMT here, right? And right, we took out this low. Think I, I already posted this, but I'll do it again. And we failed to take out the high in the US dollar. And this all occurred on Monday. So here we traded here, failed to take this high out, broke down right there. There was, there was no displacement, but we still had sequence SMT again here, which is when we would expect expansion, right? In the opposite direction of, you know, the sequential SMT. Here we took this low, right? Then what happened afterwards? We had SMT again, expanded even the high right here, right? This is a precision swing point. This is a precision swing point right here. Price fell. Even here, we had sequence SMT, right? But this was intermarket, which occurred between the Asian session on the London session here. So as you guys can see, the markets are just, you know, or the triads, the triads are, you know, absolutely, always, which other word could I use? Constantly reflecting upon each other. So the comparison between the interest rate market and the Forex market, or the interest market on and the index futures market is, you know, very important to take into consideration. And you need to understand this, which we will probably be in this for, you know, until, you know, it's very clear to everyone. Because like, this is usually something that's hard to understand. I've taught people before, which are, you know, currently amazing traders, analysts. But you need to understand this part, that this part is the important part, right? Yes, there are triads for grain, commodities, you know, metals, even the energy market, all of them. Because this is the market, right? Cotton has its own specific triad, even orange juice. But we can't give you all of that information now because that will, you know, you know, have you focusing on something that you shouldn't be focusing on right now. First, you need to understand this that's in front of you. And it's like insane. Like, like, even right now, I'm looking at the, the precision swing point right here. I was, it was literally the, the high of today, right? And literally before, you can't find this in the book. Like, you know, you know how Michael will be like, you can find this in the book, find my favorite in the book, my A-book in the book. Well, you find a L. Williams book, you can find this in the book. Actually, you literally cannot. You literally cannot find this in the book, right? This is impossible to find in a book. All right, you cannot. It's impossible. You will not find this in the book. You need to, like, you know, you should search for it, try to find it, but it won't happen, right? This is because the thing that I focus on the most is time. So when I go through my charts, I look for, you know, specific things that are out of line among a correlated group of assets during a specific time. And this is how I come to the conclusion of these things, right?
Even here, you can see this candle right here on the Great British pound, right, that rallied. It was an up close candle. Look at the candle right here in the Euro. It was an up close candle as well. No, it was a down close candle, my bad. Actually, I have a down candle here. The up candle here. What's that? A precision swing point. It's literally there, and it's amazing. So the low right here is a precision swing point. The high right here is a precision swing point as well. No one talks about this. No one has talked about this before. Literally, it's not like, you know, when people say there's nothing new under the sun, that's true. There were swing points before forever. People always talked about swing points, but no one talked about precision swing points, which is literally a tip, like the tip of the iceberg, right? C, there, there are more questions to be answered, right? Okay, precision swing points alone, I wouldn't say they don't mean anything. They do. But when do you have, you know, that precision swing point that just really fails? When, when do you have a precision swing point that expands? Okay, I already did this. This. So this right here is a new week opening gap, right? You can see that the precision swing point formed on the new week opening gap right here. So literally, once you saw, once you saw this close up, this close down, you could expect, right, some sort of, you know, reversal with, you know, within the 65, 70% you know, range of, you know, probability by just looking at this. This is just like two data points, literally. But yet tomorrow, we will be, you know, reflecting upon whatever CPI does. It will be, you know, obviously sharing which, what if the market provides a setup that's high probability, we'll be sharing that. Of course, we will, right? And until then, you know, just wait until CPI. It's, it will be in less than 12 hours from now, right? So yeah, I will be back with you guys tomorrow, as I should be. Tomorrow is Wednesday. It is, yeah. So tomorrow, 6:00 PM Eastern Standard Time. And I hope that you guys, you know, took something from tonight. Tried to give you guys, you know, as much information as I possibly could with, you know, that your current understanding would, you know, process correctly. But yeah, hope that you guys have a wonderful night. I'll be probably not heading to bed right now. Do some light back testing, continue to work on the algorithm, probably read a book by a house. I don't know. Yeah, have a wonderful night, everyone. And I'll see you guys tomorrow. Well, I'll talk to you guys tomorrow. I'm terrible at speaking, but I try. Please forgive me. Good night.