Transcription
Bitcoin was rejected at an important level despite inflows into the ETFs. We will talk about that today as well. We will talk about Ethereum, which is returning to a super important zone. We will also talk about tomorrow's Core PCE and we will take stock of the objectives we could reach. Just before we start, I remind you that our free algorithm service is available. It's the first link in the pinned comment. All the tools concerning my content are free. You keep 100%, guys. We had 14 TP on the LIM strategies last week and +2.59 R on the SPT strategies. The first link takes you to this page. You just need to register on BitGate via our partner link, and you can go through the second link right here if you wish. This will also register you for the contest that Bitgate has launched. It's free, there's up to $10,000 to share. So don't hesitate, just click here to register. You create your account and you are registered for the contest. Don't worry, it's free, there's nothing to pay, etc. If you trade, you will be eligible to potentially recover winnings from this contest. Once you are registered, you just need to look at this link: algo trading mentorship VIP Alcoin and crypto 100% free. It's a short video that explains absolutely everything about how to get the algos, the mentorship, or the VIP Alcoin. In short, you can choose whatever you want. For the VIP Alcoin, I will share the best opportunities within it. Also, the mentorship is a training that trains you from A to Z, it has 24 video courses. All of this for free.
So, to come back to BTC today, we were rejected at the stop zone we had identified, but above all, it's the Daily Fair Value Gap, we talked about it, it's going to be an important zone. We see that the market came to purge the stops in the Daily FVG and that for now it is operating a rejection. So, for the moment, it's rather a sign of bearish continuation. Now, what needs to be understood is that BTC is not very liquid at the moment, even on the CME. I look a lot at the micro futures which are generally quite clean in terms of price action. There is very, very little liquidity here. There are gaps everywhere. So, there is really a big lack of interest in BTC. And nevertheless, we still have this rejection in the Daily FVG, which is rather a sign of bearish continuation, at least to retest the low of this week. Then we'll see if the Core PCE will save BTC from this bearish leg or not. Because for the moment, I remind you that on weekly, what is absolutely necessary is to close above $113,400 to close within the FVG. If we close below, we will have indeed had the rejection of our bearish fair value gap, which would be more indicative of a retest here of the $107,000 zone, or even $105,000, because that would correspond to the low of August, and currently $107,000 is the low of September. So BTC absolutely must hold on and not go into a bearish continuation tomorrow or today. And so, we see that it's not going well for the moment. We would be more likely to go into a bearish continuation. That is to say, I come to take the stops of the last few hours, I go into the daily fair value gap, I get rejected, and therefore I am in a bearish continuation. What can save BTC from this bearish continuation is the Core PCE. It's possible that tomorrow's Core PCE will be very good and it will very quickly re-inflate the market, which could go against this bearish leg we had this week. But we absolutely need a good Core PCE tomorrow. If tomorrow's Core PCE is not great, for the moment, Bitcoin's momentum indicates more of a bearish momentum. That is to say, here, I took my Daily Fair Value Gap, I took my stops which can be seen within this range. I did the fakeout, the reintegration, and I am ready for expansion. This is visible here. Yesterday, we came to take the stops around the US Open. We had this big push and then nothing more. New liquidity grab and rejection afterwards. So, which suggests that the price will come back to take the stops here at this low eventually, and then we'll see if this time it will be enough to mark the inversion on BTC or not. If, as I said, there is good news tomorrow, good figures, then what would be good figures for the Core PCE? It would be a Core PCE below 0.2, below the forecast, because currently the market has already priced in 0.2. If it's 0.1, it's good. If it's 0, it's good. If it's negative, it's very, very good. I remind you that the lower the inflation figures, the better it is. The more it can favor interest rate cuts. And the market likes interest rate cuts because it can stimulate liquidity. Now, if the figures are above the forecast, it would not be positive. The momentum here is already bearish, so it would facilitate this BTC decline. BTC is falling, but yet yesterday, we had inflows into the ETFs, which is good, we can note it, more than 141 million for BTC, but despite that, we still had this little dip that occurred. So, we still see that the inflows have calmed down on this rebound. We talked about it, we need to find major inflows. What I was saying is that even if we were to revisit the ATH, if there are no major inflows, we cannot break resistance, we cannot really start an upward phase. So, it is crucial to find inflows, which we don't have. And so, this proves precisely that there is a lack of interest in BTC.
We can switch to Ethereum, and Ethereum is quite similar since yesterday, for that matter, we have no inflows but outflows. Now, nothing dramatic, the outflows are not huge, but there are still outflows, so there is still selling on the ETFs, which makes Ethereum struggle to move north again, it too. We can quickly note that the dollar index has rebounded well in the identified zone, and this puts pressure on risk assets. We see yesterday that the dollar push hurt the NASDAQ. We can see that, it's the bearish leg we had yesterday on the Nasdaq. So it came to target objectives that we saw in the macro reviews. So I find that we are in an interesting zone on the NASDAQ, but I'll keep that for the macro reviews. But the dollar remains a threat here, and we see that the dollar push also harmed BTC. And so, regarding Ethereum, we had precisely the close below the median threshold of this wick, which allowed us to reach the low, which is Monday's low here, which I will note. Oops! If it wants to, I don't understand why it doesn't. Okay, we'll note here that it's the low right here. That's Monday's low. Okay. And so, the market is in an interesting zone on Ethereum to recover. Why? I'm not saying we'll necessarily bottom here, but in any case, we've come to liquidate, finally, we've come to take the stops from the liquidation wick which corresponds to Monday's low. So that means that Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, today is Thursday, the price has purged all the buyers' stops. So, will the Core PCE allow for a short squeeze? Well, we'll have to see. I remind you that the ultimate zone for Ethereum is its weekly fair value gap. That is to say, we absolutely must maintain the weekly FVG, otherwise it's more indicative of a deeper correction, at least until the first target, probably $3,590. So, we've really come to take the stops from Monday's low in the Weekly FVG which extends up to 3935. So there's still room here, but it's really an important zone. Falling below this zone would translate to a deeper retracement, like working this breaker and more particularly this fair value gap. Here we see that it's the zone from $3,880 to $3,690, and probably the first target of the entire movement, which would be a quite interesting retest. But hey, a nice price zone has been reached here, Monday's low in the Weekly FVG. We'll have to see if it's enough or not. For now, there's no sign of strength.
Okay, I have good things on the hourly. Here, we clearly see, you saw on the indicator that we came to take the stops. Here, our indicator identifies the stops. This triggered a rebound. Nothing more, for now, it's just a simple rebound. On the hourly, what would be a good signal would be, for example, to break the last bearish candle and form an FVG. If we see something like that, there would be an order block here which could translate a good stop grab to recover the stops above $4,230 and perhaps even retrace higher, marking a high here. But this zone is now well established. We'll see if we can bottom. If the price weakens and shows no sign of strength, well, we'll have to accept the fact that ETH will continue to retrace lower and perhaps even approach $3,590, the famous first target. In any case, it will be important for ETH to react in this zone. So, it's something to observe today. All stops have been hunted at the beginning of the week, well, this week. Monday's low was taken, Tuesday's low, Wednesday's low. Tomorrow, there's the Core PCE. Will the Core PCE allow for a short squeeze? That's what we'll have to observe. We can quickly look at funding. Well, there's still a bit of negative funding within this range, but the stops were taken from sellers, we were talking about it yesterday precisely where there are negative fundings. So, we risk coming to take the stops here, which has been done, and we didn't go any further. There was reintegration, which is not positive. I mentioned it, we shouldn't reintegrate, we should break and not reintegrate. That's not positive. And on ETH, on the other hand, fundings are quite negative, especially at these lows. That's rather interesting, but it's specific to Ethereum. Bitcoin is not really in this direction, but on Hyperliquid Binance by Bit, there are negative fundings. Open interest is increasing well. Many people have shorted on this dip, which accumulates potential stops here. Will Ether offer the possibility to come and take the stops here? We'll have to see, it's a possibility, but the price really needs to react where it is. You see, we've taken the stops. Now, the price needs to show signs of strength to go against the bearish movement, to at least liquidate $4,230. Again, if there are no signs of strength, the price can very well do this without any problem and go to retest lower, notably the $3,590 zone, for example.
So, to summarize, for Bitcoin, we would need to go back up to $113,400 to stay in the Weekly FVG on this week's close. What can save us are tomorrow's Core PCE results. If they are not good, I think that unfortunately it will translate into a bearish continuation given what the price has done technically. Ethereum is a bit the same. If tomorrow the figures are good and it stays within its Weekly FVG, there is really a way to go against this decline and to recover the stops at $4,230. However, if tomorrow the Core PCE is bad, then there would potentially be grounds to break the Weekly FVG, and it would be more indicative of retesting, you see, the FVG we left there, and probably testing the first target at $3,590. I'll stop here. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the blue thumbs, subscribe, leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description, don't hesitate. First link in the pinned comment. For those who want to join my school and train alongside me, have access to the daily briefs, it's right here. Join my trading school. It's the only paid subscription I offer, and it's €49 per month, no commitment. There are even cheaper offers for 3, 6, and 12 months with discounts. In the school, you will find daily briefs from Monday to Friday. We find opportunities together. I answer students' questions, I analyze their altcoins. I talk about my personal exposure, my market vision, the altcoins I'll be watching. You will also have access to the school's training, which is the most complete training, 19 hours of video courses, 8 modules that train you from A to Z, which is exclusive to the school. It can't be found anywhere else outside the school. You also have some descriptions on the school's page to know what you will find in this school, as well as testimonials from members. So, don't hesitate to check all of that out. You are welcome. I'll stop here. We'll meet later for the macro review.