Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Sunday, November 16, 2025, facing a completely red crypto market, not pretty. There are even two red crypto markets. Why? Because today is Sunday, we are going to do the weekly analysis. Are we in a bear market? Some already have the answer in their minds. Some think "Yes, we are in a bear market, it's over." Others no. Today, I will try to bring you some very relevant analytical elements to help you form your own opinion, and I will tell you what I think. You will see, I have prepared some excellent little analyses to look at the long term. Does this long term tell us it's good, it's over, we are in a bear market, everyone packs their bags, puts on a diaper, and it will last 2 years, or ultimately, could we not be in a bear market but in a correction in the style of a cycle, in the style of a bull run, and then take off again? We will look at all of that right away, of course. Just a small thing, be careful friends on Telegram, someone here has stolen the name Crypto Foufi analyse et trading. So if you are on a Telegram channel here with 128 people called Foufi analyse et actualité Bitcoin with "free" written on it, which speaks in English, which offers you great things. Yes, you put in 500, you will earn 2000, special offer, blah blah blah. Of course, it's not me. Okay. How did they steal this name? It's because before, the analysis and news channel I had was called Crypto Foufi Analyse et Trading. But I made it private. When it was public, it was there, and I made it private because my data was being stolen and all that. And when I made it private, it changed its name. It's a name that we then use in private with letters, numbers, a name that means nothing. And so this person thought, "I'll take the name." So be careful, if you are in that channel with 128 people who write everything in English with great offers like "we're going to make a lot of money, look what I'm doing, send me money," it's not me. Okay? Already, when it speaks English, it's not me. So be careful, of course.
On top of that, tonight, I'm taking advantage of the fact that there will be a live stream from 9 PM to 10 PM. We will talk about all of this, the news, what's happening in the markets, everything you want. So don't hesitate to come, and I have shared quite a few nice analyses here on the Telegram news and analysis channel, which I will show you right away. Anyway, all the official links of your beloved Foufi are in the description, okay? So there's no need to search for a channel in the depths of the internet. If it's written in English or something weird, it's not me.
So for now, the week is red, not pretty. We are down almost 8% this week for Bitcoin, 10% for Ethereum, XRP is doing a bit better at around -5%. Well, some are taking a bigger hit like Solana, almost -14%. It's starting to correct. So this Sunday is not pretty. Are we surprised? No. This morning in the analysis I sent you on all social networks, the real-style analysis, we saw that the 1-hour Bollinger Bands were very compressed, which meant there would be a violent movement on the VIP channel this morning. Look, as usual, the structure told us "Ah, there are strong probabilities." If I take little Bitcoin here, my love, so several solutions, a regular one to fall back, a contracting one to fall, or in the worst case, why not an exhaustion running pattern. Well, in any case, this morning, the structure showed us that it stinks, quite simply. Can it be invalidated? There is little probability. Well, anyway, I think you saw the video on the VIP Telegram channel this morning. As usual, there were many probabilities, and more probability that it would fall: impulse, correction, continuation. So, we are not surprised at all. We are in extreme fear. Well, these are the good zones where bottoms are formed. Remember the last time we were in extreme fear. We went to look for around $74,000. We had gone from, I don't remember, 100, 120 something to $74,000. We touched extreme fear for quite some time. The bottom was set, and then it took off again. So now, in extreme fear. Will the bottom be set? Very possible, but it takes time, it can also take the whole month of December, of course.
Well, after all, I understand that not everyone has the same portfolio. Some have a portfolio, I would say many of you when I ask the question "Are we in a bear market?" Well, the majority of you say "Are you stupid or what? Of course, we are in a bear market, look at my portfolio, it's down 80%. We are on a cycle where altcoins have been completely crushed. When I talk about bear market, bull run, cycle or not, I'm only talking about Bitcoin, which is clearly de-correlated from altcoins now. We are no longer on a cycle like before. In all previous cycles, there was a very strong correlation between Bitcoin and altcoins; they push together, they correct together. Now, many altcoins are at the bottom of hell, okay, worse than a bear market, and Bitcoin is still on something quite interesting. So, of course, not everyone has the same portfolio. I'm talking about Bitcoin. Anyway, here on the Foufu channel, we only talk about Bitcoin. I say this because many people are tense. Some are even starting to get rude. There are new people who have never set foot here, who see the light, who open the door, they do a crypto influencer [expletive] and they close the door like that. People are tense because in their minds, their portfolio is down 40-50% because they bought exotic altcoins. But I want to say, go see the people who told you to buy these super altcoins that will make x10 and go tell them, well, it's not nice of them, but even so, even those who shilled it, they didn't know.
Well, in any case, here, we only talk about Bitcoin, especially when I talk about bull run or bear market. And you will understand why. I want to tell you, be careful because every person who proposes analyses has a bias, and you can propose a bullish or not bullish analysis. For example, I'll show you this. Here, we see the moving average, the 50 in orange. Well, I'll enlarge it a bit because I think you can't see anything here. Especially since, well, it doesn't want to update. Ah, there it is, the little rascal. So, the 50 moving average, which I'm just going to enlarge so you can see a little better. There, you see it well, right? And the moving average here. Hop. And the 200 moving average to show you what's called a death cross. A death cross is when the 50 moving average crosses below the 200. I'll also put it in black. Now you'll tell me, but Foufi, why are you talking about death crosses and all that? Well, I'll show you why. Well, for example, the end of the bear market was here. We were around $15,000-$16,000. Okay. Well, I'm not going to look at the golden crosses, I'm going to look at the death crosses. The death crosses that send you to the bottom of hell where everyone is afraid. Oh my god, death crosses, Bitcoin. So, we are on the daily chart here. Okay. Well, so the first death cross happened around here, September 10th, you see. And it was almost the bottom. The bottom, within 3 days, was the bottom of the correction. A correction that had lasted for quite a few months, roughly. I think it lasted around 6 months, you see, a month later. Well, and so when we had the death cross, many said it was over. We had Bitcoin touching $31,000, back below $10,000, and finally, this death cross was the bottom. Very good, we continue to push, we start to correct again for 9 months. Here, a death cross arrives. This was around August 8th. August 8th, within 2-3 days, it was the bottom of the correction that lasted here, well, 8-9 months. Okay. And we were there, I remember very well when Bitcoin wick up to around $54,000, people were insulting each other, crypto is too bad, and some were leaving saying "I'm quitting crypto, I should never have come." We held on, and we were rewarded. I'm talking, of course, about those who stayed with Bitcoin. Okay. Well, now, we're starting again. Another death cross here, April 2025. Similarly, after a correction of 5-6 months, after Trump came, we went from $110,000 to around $75,000. The same thing, some were crying. Oh my god, all this, all this, all this. We held on because, personally, I follow the structures. Everyone follows what they want. Okay? I trust the structures, especially the big structures. They have very little probability of being invalidated. The majority, 90-95% of big structures are validated. And so, it's the same here for the third time. I'm leaving this for the third time. Death cross, within 2-3 days, it was the bottom. So, we've had three corrections since the end of the bear market, and in these three corrections, the death crosses, all three times, gave the bottom within 2-3 days, you see, that's the idea. And so, why am I telling you this? Because now we have a death cross. Well, I'm not saying "Yes, it's good, don't worry, the death cross will now send you to the moon, it's the bottom." I'm not saying that. I'm saying that something has happened three times before that gave a bottom. Will this fourth time now give a bottom? I don't know, but I have the right to believe it. I have the right to tell myself, to have hope, to tell myself, why not, that we will have a bottom soon, in a few days, you see, because the death cross is here. So, can the bottom be set this week, as it was set there, as it was set there, as it was set there? Well, I want to believe it. Some will tell me "Nonsense, bear market, you're too bad, you clown." Well, listen, then leave, that's all. That's it. In any case, I believe.
Second thing, second analysis. If you take it from the end of the bear market, again, these are analyses I shared on Telegram, Twitter, and Discord, okay? If you take it from the end of the bear market, here we are around, no, I'm saying nonsense, the end of the bear market is here. I even took it from the very beginning of Bitcoin, all these cycles. You draw the Fibonacci retracements, and each time you take the lowest point, okay, the beginning of the cycle. And so, each time you draw the Fibonacci retracements. Each time you have a correction, as long as you hold the 38% Fibonacci level, remember when you draw your Fibonacci retracements, you take a low, a high. Ah yes. Well, the problem is that, wait, I'll reset it. There. Default parameters. Well, default parameters that are all bad. So, wait, I'll put it here on the right because I've done some little manipulations, and I'll remove the white background. There, I'll even remove the trend line here. It's all bad. There. So, when you draw your Fibonacci retracements, and it goes like this, like this, as long as it holds the 38% Fibonacci level, your asset is very bullish, very, there are very strong probabilities that it will take off again. If your asset breaks the 31% Fibonacci level, it has very strong probabilities of going to the reload zone. If it breaks the reload zone, it's hell. Well, and so, what do you do? Well, quite simply, you draw these Fibonacci retracements each time from the end of the bear market and you see what happens. When there was the bull run cycle in 2015, with each correction, the 38% Fibonacci levels held. They held, well, they held on the candle bodies, not the wicks. The wick is allowed to go below if it wants. Well, and you see the 38% Fibonacci levels held, the 38% Fibonacci levels held each time. When you had corrections, 38% Fibonacci levels, but you had corrections between -35% and 40%, between 35% and -40%. Okay, you had corrections, and you were still in a bull run. The 38% Fibonacci levels were lost, welcome to the bear market. Similarly, this cycle in 2020, we correct, the 38% Fibonacci levels hold, the 38% Fibonacci levels hold, the 38% Fibonacci levels hold. When the 38% Fibonacci levels were broken, bear market. We are here, we are here in this cycle now. Okay, we push, we correct for 6 months, the 38% Fibonacci levels at $25,000 hold. You are still in a bullish market. Boom, you push, you correct for 9 months. The 38% Fibonacci levels at $52,000 hold, you see, the candle bodies remain above. You are still in a bullish market. But already, we had lost people, those who were shouting "Ah, it's good, you're too bad, my cryptos, I should have gone." And you YouTubers, you are all thieves. Well, and so, it's the same here. When Bitcoin was at $50,000, "thief, thief, give back the money." Well, onion, you do what you want with it, you're the one buying big junk, not me. Well, and so, here it's the same thing. Then, we continue to push, correction due to the dollar's price which lasted 6 months. We held the $38,000 Fibonacci levels, and here, remember, I bombarded you with this chart for a long time. I just recycled this chart. This chart, I told you, be careful, as long as we don't break $64,000, we are not in a bear market. It's the same music, the same music on the violins. There are always those who panic. Ah, nonsense. Bear market is over. Well, it's always the same music for years. Okay. Those who arrive, the new ones who bought random things and get crushed, they are the ones who are mean, those who call for the bottom of the bear market and all that. Those who are calm, with little experience, who remove emotions, and who are, for example, fully in Bitcoin, well, it's not the same story, they don't have the same life, you see.
Well, anyway, so it held, we're going back into a bull run now. Why am I showing this chart? Where are the 38% Fibonacci levels? They are here at $84,000. As long as the $84,000 holds, the Fibonacci levels tell us we are not in a bear market. After all, it's just an indicator, it's not a crystal ball. I haven't put seven crystal balls, I haven't invoked the dragon who said "yes, we are not in a bear market." He can tell us, you see, the dragon, it's just Fibonacci. It's an indicator. So, this indicator, I like it, and I want to believe in it. As long as we don't break $84,000, for me, we are still in a bullish market. If we break $84,000, then I'll tell you "Ah, it stinks." That's all. Well, and here's another little chart I sent you. This one is simple, you see. In fact, I'm showing you all this to show you that depending on the analyst, they can show you nice charts that say we are not in a bear market, or charts that tell you we are in a bear market, and you will see.
Well, and to finish this, simply, you draw little trendlines and you say, well, as long as we don't break this trendline, we are not in a bear market. It can bounce and push again. This is easy, it's easy. Well, after that, there are the pessimistic analyses. Analyses that stink. For example, this one, I shared it with you several months ago when we were at $126,000, telling you "be careful, look here, if we hit the trendline," and here we had Bitcoin hitting its trendline, the dollar hitting its bottom here, and the dungeon and the S&P 500 hitting higher. Well, and so, here, I was thinking, "well, look, it's a bearish chart that I like to share a bit of everything, bullish and bearish charts." Well, and in this chart, it could tell us that we were there, "be careful, it stinks." Well, ultimately, that's what happened, the rejection at the trendline, and here, well, we can go to hell, but it's not because it's hell that "oh my god, it's going to fall, fall, fall towards $10,000," you see. Well, so the dollar is on a rebound, that's clear. So, that's why for now, it's not great, great. If the dollar breaks this trendline, it could be crazy, crazy, furious for Bitcoin's rise. Well, so for now, it's normal that we have something that's not very, very pretty. So, one who tells you "bear market," yes, bear market, obligatorily bear market. I have others like that. Well, here, the trend is rather bullish. So, I shared this with you: it's the Bitcoin to gold ratio. So, it's Bitcoin divided by gold. Okay? And so, what do we see here? We see that when the Bitcoin-gold ratio touches close to its oversold zone on the RSI, it's bottoms. It's clearly bottoms. And then it pushes well, you see. And it happens every time. It's not always exactly the zone below the oversold, below 30. Sometimes it's a bit higher, but every time Bitcoin gets crushed against gold, at some point it bottoms out and outperforms gold and explodes, you see. That's what happened every time. And here, we're starting to be at pretty low levels, you see. Wait, I can't see it with my hat. Wait, I'll push it, I'll push it. Push, push, push. There. So, here, you see that we're starting to be at levels here, uh, that tell you a bottom isn't very, very far, you see? Because here, we're really getting crushed compared to gold. And so, at some point, Bitcoin will say, "Okay, that's enough, I want my share of the pie too, and I'm going to start outperforming gold." Even if it means taking some of gold's share, you see. So, in any case, it has always done that for a very long time. In any case, here, at least since the chart, since at least 2015, even 2012, you see. It's that as soon as we start to hit a zone where Bitcoin is oversold compared to gold, at some point, boom, it's the comeback, you see, poof, poof, you see. Well, it's not always a magnificent, diabolical comeback, but most of the time, it pushes well, you see.
Well, so, this is also a pretty good chart. Well, this one doesn't say "Oh my god, it's good, everything is fine, we are not in a bear market." It tells you that at some point, Bitcoin will get angry and outperform gold. A chart that many show you here that tells you "Yes, it's good, we are in a bear market," is this one. It's the 50-week moving average, which is the average price over the last 50 days. And here, we see that since we recovered it, well, that was at the end of the bear market in March 2023, we haven't lost it again, you see. Here, I put some things, we haven't lost it again. So, it's sure that here, as I say, it doesn't look good. I see the analysis, it's mathematical, okay? After that, everyone does what they want. Okay? You have my version, some are happy, some are not, we don't care. Those who are not happy can leave. Those who are happy deserve it. Well, big kisses to those who are still here, you know. And so, uh, what do I want to say? It's that I see finance as mathematics. It's a matter of probability. Okay? Here, you've clearly understood that you have indicators that tell you "No, we are not in a bear market," and you have indicators that tell you "it stinks of a bear market." So, it's all a question of probability. I often call these lights that are lit up. This is a red light that turns on. You see the alarm light. So, it increases the probability of saying "yes, the bull run is over." Okay. Then you have some analyses that tell you "or this, this, this is not bad." For example, here, the fact that at each death cross, it was the bottom of all the corrections. So, here, you can say, "well, rather a little green light," you see, a little light of love. I drew a heart that looks like nothing. Here, it's the same. Here, it's rather a green light. It's not an analysis that tells you "we are in a bear market," it's an analysis that has always worked. This one is rather a green light, you see. This one is also rather a green light. It's a small trendline, but it's a little green light, you see. This one is rather a red light. This one is a red light. This one stinks. This one stinks of a bear market, you see. So, you have to be careful. You have to cross-reference many things because finance is mathematics, it's probabilities. It's not "I take an indicator or I watch a video of a guy who told me we are in a bear market, we are in a bear market." Unfortunately, the majority of people in crypto are new, have invested in random things, don't know much, and don't dig deep. And especially, they don't have critical thinking. You have to have critical thinking. Okay. I try to be as neutral as possible and show you things as objectively as possible so that you understand.
Well, in the current situation, yes, there are indicators that are lit up saying "it stinks of a bear market," there are others that tell you "no, it's not a bear market." So, we have the right to think that we are not in it. So, how do I see things? After that, I'll do the analysis, or the video is long. Well, it's that, okay, it tells you "it stinks," no problem. Okay, so here's a red light. But I'm waiting for other red lights. If we break $84,000, a big red light will turn on, and I'll tell you "Oh, it's starting to stink here." It's a big red light. Here, the death cross, well, if the death cross starts to deepen, it stinks. But I'm rather waiting for two things to tell me, two big red lights to tell me "yes, this really smells of a bear market." This strongly increases the probabilities of an altcoin crash. Breaking the 31% Fibonacci level, for me, greatly increases the probabilities of being in a bear market. And then, there is the structure, there is the weekly structure with this famous running pattern. So, this running pattern, I'll put it in white, otherwise we can't see anything. This running pattern, you see here, it's valid. As long as we don't break $74,500, it's valid. Okay? So, I'll tell you my opinion, and then we'll go into the analysis directly. It's that, yes, okay, there are charts that tell you "oh my god, it stinks of a bear market," like this 50-week moving average that is shared everywhere. It increases the probabilities of being in a bear market. Okay. On the other hand, the structure tells you we are not in a bear market, and the Fibonacci levels tell you we are not in a bear market. So, some can just look at this and say "well, no, we are not in a bear market." This says it. Okay, this says it, but this is not the market. This is just a slightly higher probability of having entered a bear market, but there are other indicators that tell you "well, no, we are not there yet." So, what you need to do is always zoom out, be critical, look at everything. If everyone says, if, let's say, many, many indicators tell you "yes, we are in a bear market," then you can say "Well, there is a high probability of being there." If it's only a few, you shouldn't start saying no. So, I choose certain indicators because you can't do everything in the whole world. The indicators I like are the 50-week moving average, which I like a lot. It tells me "it stinks." Other indicators I like a lot are the 38% Fibonacci levels, especially the first level. This one tells me "no, we are not there yet." And especially the main indicator that I like, but everyone does what they want, okay? It's the structure. There. So, in short, if I choose, if I choose three indicators. The first is the 50-week moving average, which says "it stinks of a bear market." Okay. The second is the structure, which is here and says "no, not a bear market." And the third is the Fibonacci levels, which say "no, not a bear market." So, I have one out of three. So, I have the right to tell myself that for me, we are not yet in a bear market. So, you ask me the question, "Okay Foufi, what is a bear market for you?" And then you say "it's good, it stinks." Well, I'll tell you. Breaking the 38% Fibonacci levels here, which are at $84,000, is a bear market. And breaking $74,000 is a bear market. So, if I converge these three indicators that I find relevant, then it means that breaking $74,500 is, for me, the entry into a bear market. Why? Because it's the structure that tells us if we break there, the running pattern is invalidated, and we move on to a new corrective structure where it will be a big A, and then you'll have the big B that will arrive, and then you'll have the big C that will send everyone to the hospital on respiratory support, and then we'll leave. There. So, that's it for me. So, everyone has the right to believe what they want. Some are convinced in their minds that it's a bear market, well, there's no problem. Everyone has the right to think what they want, and fortunately. In any case, for me, it's the level of $74,500 that will tell me "Oh my god, oh my god, where am I going to buy lots of diapers, lots of tissues, because this could last a long time." That's a little bit about it.
Well, so, excuse me, this is taking a long time. We will do the analysis a bit quickly. So, altcoins here, the altcoin chart for the structure is the same. Don't forget altcoins, the weekly structure told us what for a long time? Well, that after a wave A, we do a wave B which is an upward wave, we are happy. But after a wave B, we have a downward wave that is atrocious. And as long as we don't break the top of A, wave C will break the bottom of A. And so, unfortunately for, well, it's not all altcoins, it's the top 125 where I removed stablecoins and Ethereum, okay, and Bitcoin, to represent things a bit. So, here, it means that, well, already that we had this candle, there are two solutions. Either it's wave B, but it was ugly, or it was the start of wave C. And well, it didn't miss, the start of wave C. Remember, wicks are very often retested, and here, that's exactly what's happening. So, in my opinion, we are heading for something not pretty, you see, for altcoins. Why? Because there are strong probabilities that it's wave C and that altcoins will take another -30% hit, unfortunately. Why? To make A, to make B, to make C. On the other hand, once that's finished, what does the structure say? Because, in short, the structure, well, it's something like this, you see, to give you an idea, A, B, C, with B, well, B that has finished, it's something, I see the little rat, but that's the idea. Well, so after an A, after a B, after a C, well, you validate a regular flat here, and it's an explosion. There. So, in short, altcoins, if the structure follows its evolution well, they will bleed for several more weeks, but after that, it will be a magnificent comeback. I'll remove this. There, that will be the idea. After that, technically, well, altcoins have been rejected, they have been rejected by the short reload zone. As usual, the short zone is where there is the highest probability to start the next wave. And here, it didn't miss. Altcoins, well, the top 125 on average here, passed, uh, its short zone, the top of A. So, after that, it's death, unfortunately. So, for now, the bulls are there, they are pushing, we broke the 52 RSI. It's enough for next week to have the red candle that breaks the lower band of the weekly Bollinger Band, where we are currently at 638, and it's the descent to the 200 moving average. And here, a bottom can be found on the 200 moving average. Why? Because here, the structure tells you, it's enough to break this little wick just above the 200 moving average, and so altcoins could stop at the 200 moving average, and the regular flat is validated. There, that is to say, at any moment, as soon as this wick is broken, that is to say, altcoins descend well to the 200 moving average with this A, this B, this C, well, at any moment after touching the bottom, they can turn around, they have the right to go lower. In any case, the regular flat is validated as soon as we break this little wick. So, a scenario that would not be surprising at all is that altcoins go to look for the 200 moving average, which is one of the biggest weekly supports, a much bigger long-term support for all crypto assets, and then it takes off again. For now, yes, it's not pretty. If altcoins do a small -30%, what will Bitcoin, my love, do? We'll see.
Well, for now, for the dollar, I'll go quickly. Well, it's bleeding. Next target, the lower Bollinger Band. In any case, the structure, don't forget this one. It's been telling us for a long time that we need to break the bottom of this wick to validate it. Well, there. On the other hand, there are small bullish divergences forming. So, at some point, it will be good.
So, Bitcoin, weekly. So, it's sure that here, it's the same thing, okay? Don't forget, we have wave A, wave B, it started to diverge strongly at each higher high. So, remember, for quite a few months now, at least since this summer, we've been talking about this big weekly C because it's clearly the structure, it's not made up. I'm not pulling it out of my hat or my crystal ball. It's after an A, after a B, you have to endure a C to then take off again. Well, so this weekly wave C has been telling us for months and months and months: "Be careful, I'm coming, I don't know exactly when, but I'm coming, you see." Well, and so, this love thread, as I told you this summer, I filled a bag of stablecoins in "shield and sword" mode, I prepared for a problem. Well, the problem arrived when Bitcoin hit $126,000, when it was still diverging at $126,000. In fact, I want to tell you, if I'm not nice, I'll be the not-nice Foufi, okay? It's that people who were in profit or in Bitcoin or in Ethereum, you have zero excuses. You have zero excuses because here, we really had at least 2 months of weekly nuclear bearish divergence with a weekly C of the big 4-year structure. So, here, the market said "be careful, I'm diverging, I might fall, especially since I have a corrective wave C to do, so be careful." Some said "no, I don't care about all this world." And on the other hand, those who are smart, Team Foufi, Team Troto, Team Smart, well, they put some stablecoins aside. I know some even sold everything. I don't really like that personally, but everyone does what they want at $125,000-$126,000. So, well, bravo, you hit the jackpot. Uh, I didn't sell everything, I made my bag of stablecoins for the bear market. So, well, those who believed in the structure and the analysis when Bitcoin was at $126,000, well, bravo, you sold the top of the cycle, finally.
or of the market or of these latter latter. B, did you get the idea? There, you didn't need to be called Einstein or have graduated from Harvard to do that because the analysis told us calmly, without pressure, clearly. For 2 months, I told you to be careful of small profits, I'm messing around. It stinks, it stinks. Be careful, the weekly is weekly. There. Well, after that, everyone does what they want with their money. Everyone decides whether to listen or not. Well, so now a red candle that breaks the lower Bollinger band. It doesn't smell like roses, clearly, that's for sure. Okay, because when you break the lower Bollinger band here, you can have the spread, the toboggan effect. So, given the breaking of the lower Bollinger band, it's certain that we could have, we could go much lower than 92,000, you see. So, you see here, we could fall much, much lower. say 80,000, you see, 85, it could be because it's not good to break the lower Bollinger band now, that means the toboggan effect could barely start this week. There. So, you see, I try to be optimistic, but I also try to be level-headed. Here, it's not good. We could have several weeks of red and breaking on the ground with this weekly candle of this week, which is not good at all. Okay. Well, so the 50 moving average is broken at 103,000, 104,000, it's not good. The lower band is broken, it's not good. The gap that awaits at 92,000, which is there, but I don't like this breaking of the Bollinger band, clearly, I'm telling you. Well, so now, what does the structure tell us? As long as we don't break the low at 74,500, there's still this running here that is validated. So that means small A, small B, small C. Can it stop at 92,000 and validate the running and leave now? Yes. Can it go up to 85 and validate the running and leave? Yes. Can it break down to 80,000 for Bitcoin and validate small A, small B, small C and explode? Yes, however, if it starts to break 74,000, we put an X on the running and we put on layers and we go cry. There, quite simply. On the daily level, well, nothing special apart from just that Petit Bicogne Amour is starting to show bullish divergence. We are in the oversold zone. These are zones where I do my little shopping like little pinchaotud with little chocolate satoshis fresh out of the oven. There. After that, everyone does what they want. Personally, I do my shopping when we are at the bottom in the oversold zone and I take small stablecoins in profit when we are at the top in the overbought zone. As usual, I tell you the same thing for years and so personally, I'm tightening the belt because we are already in the oversold zone and when Bitcoin is in the oversold zone, it doesn't go too deep into the oversold zone. It can go a little bit but not that much, you see. Well, so now we're going to watch that. We'll see the daily from tomorrow more precisely. In terms of liquidations, there's not much to the south. There's enough to eat these long-term liquidations over the last 30 days accumulated. Bitcoin can go eat the 92,000, the gap that is there. There's a strong probability of going to eat the gap. Can it fall to 85? Yes, to 80, it has the right to. As long as it can't reach 74,000, I'm fine. We don't forget that there's more money to be found to the north. Already 10 billion only at 107,000 and much higher. So at some point, the market might want to go eat up there, you see. So Ethereum Weekly. Well, here it is in negotiation with its 50 moving average. Ethereum is on a running like Bitcoin. Okay. So Ethereum holders, can it, can it hurt? Yes. But can it be on a running small A, small B, small C and explode afterwards? Yes, clearly. So here, Ethereum, the fact that it broke, well currently, it's the 50 moving average which is around 3150 dollars. So if it closes below tonight, it stinks, it means it will go look for this gap at 2853. Okay, remember this 50 moving average, but since the gap is not far, it can eat it. And especially the 200 moving average which is right in the reloading zone at 2445. So where there's the most probability that the wave C of Ethereum will stop, it's there on the 200 moving average right in the overbought zone here, right in the reloading zone, sorry, around 2450. The 2450 will be reinforced concrete. Now, I'm not saying it will stop at 2450 and don't worry, it will start again. No, I'm just telling you that there are very strong probabilities to try to create a good bottom in there because if it breaks the 200 moving average or 2450, it's heading for the gap at 173. Ethereum, what does the structure say? As long as it doesn't break 1400, it's still on the running. Okay? So it even has the right to go look for the gap at 1733. It can do A, it can do B and C and boom explode. Now, you'll tell me, well, if it goes to 1733, that's good market. It will tell you, well, yes, it stinks, that's clear. On the other hand, it's a running rather for a continuation. That's what the long-term structure tells us. There. So here, Ethereum, it's not great to break the 50 moving average, but well, there's the gap right behind it, we don't blame it. And uh well, if it goes there, direction at least the gap at 2853 and see the 200 moving average at around 2450 dollars. We broke 50 dollars, it's not pretty. The Bs are there, so it's not good. We have to tighten the FFS net anyway, this structure which for the moment is valid and which could push. Breaking 1401 is invalidation of the running. And there, you can put on layers and buy tissues because everyone will cry. On the daily level, it's starting to draw quite a few bullish divergences on Ethereum. So at some point, these bullish divergences will support Ethereum's bottom to try to push it up a bit, you see. So oversold zone here that Ethereum touches several times plus bullish divergence, you see with the price falling, the RSI staying higher, the MACD staying higher, the momentum, so at some point it will bottom out, at some point, and it's perhaps not far, but I think this gap at 2853 will perhaps be eaten there, you see. In terms of liquidity, well, there's almost nothing left. So does it want to eat the gap? It has the right to, but there are only crumbs left and at some point, we'll have to eat a few billion that are to the north. Solana now, well, Solana had taken a little lead, okay, because it had broken its 50 moving average last week, which stinks. Well, Solana unfortunately, I'll tell you the same thing I've been telling you for months, is that well, Solana, the big structure here, it's not a running, it's a regular because it hasn't broken 300 dollars here, which are higher, sorry here, it hasn't broken these 300 dollars here. This means that the wave will go break the bottom of A at 95 dollars unfortunately. So here, well, you already have to expect Solana to go look for its gap at 121, that's for sure, the gap that is there. And even Solana to go look for its 200 moving average at 102 and perhaps make a wick. What would be good is if it stops at the 200 moving average and makes its wick just below 95 and validates small A, small B, small C because wicks count in the structure and then boom, it takes off to the moon. You see? That's what the structure tells us for Solana for now. As soon as it broke the 50 moving average, anyway, there was last week, it started to smell like a real wave. Well, so now, breaking 52 RSI, the Bs are there, the Bollinger band is being broken, 121 is the next stop which is there, you see the gap, then after the 200 moving average at 102. And there, we would have to light a candle that the 102 holds. So, what's the correction? A correction of - 25. Ah yes, I just didn't say for Bitcoin, for the correction, sorry, for Bitcoin, I'll take it back here. So Bitcoin where it could correct? So if it goes from - 100 to 84, it could do - 15. We'll see if it's in line with Ethereum and and for example Solana. Let's say Bitcoin, it could do, well - 20 is finished. Come on, let's say, come on - 15. Let's say - 15 to look for approximately the the the 80,000. If Bitcoin does - 15, Ethereum Solana can do - 30. A correction twice as large is not at all unreasonable. So for example, Ethereum could find a bottom on a small - 20. So for example, Bitcoin - 10, Ethereum - 20, that works pretty well. Now, if we take Solana here, Solana to find a bottom would have to do - 25. So Bitcoin - 10, Solana doing 2 x 5i, more correction than Bitcoin. It's not unreasonable. Bitcoin doing - 3, Solana doing - 5, - 6, that can happen without a problem. Well, so, is all this to say that we could find long-term bottoms and validate the structures without Bitcoin breaking 70,000. If Bitcoin does, for example, a small - 10, I'll do it again with the scale. So if Bitcoin does from now on a - 10, so goes to the bottom of the reloading zone at 84,000 or even - 15 to look for around 85,000, and well, everyone, well, the other structures with big caps here could also find their bottom on their big 200 moving average. It's not unreasonable. So, if the runnings remain validated, if the structures remain validated, I see something like this, a Bitcoin at 850, Ethereum on its 200 moving average around approximately 2450, and Solana its 200 moving average around 101. And there, we will really try to set a good long-term bottom and then it can be good. So yes, so do we need to tighten the belt? I think so. And it's convenient because 84,000 dollars is what? Well, 84,000 is the 31 of Fibo. So basically, Bitcoin going to look for these 31 of Fibo and holding them. So it can make wicks below, okay, it's the candle bodies. So 84,000 is - 10, but it has the right to do - 12, - 13 with a small wick, you see, a weekly wick. So if Bitcoin does - 10 at 84,000, it holds these 38 of Fibo that are there. So you are still in the bullish cycle and - 10 for Bitcoin. Ethereum can do - 20 on its 200 moving average and Solana can do - 20, - 25 rather on its 100 moving average, sorry 200 at 100 at 100 dollars. So it's a scenario that remains possible. In short, it's the scenario I'm aiming for. If this scenario is invalidated, welcome to Bquet. There. In any case, I will think about it because the probabilities will increase. On the daily level, well, I'll go quickly, we've done enough. The good news is that it's in the oversold zone. This is where small bottoms are formed. Bullish divergences are appearing. This is also good news. And for liquidity, there's almost nothing left to the north. We'll have to eat to the south. There's almost nothing to the south, sorry. We'll have to eat to the north. And I'm finishing because the video is going to be long. So here XRP, well, same thing, it broke its 50 moving average, so direction here its 200 moving average or 1 dollar approximately. To get there, it would need a small correction of approximately - 50. So it is completely uncorrelated XRP because of this big wick here, you see, which destroyed everything. So XRP, it's true that on analysis, it's completely broken. Well, it would need to break the upper Bollinger band at 214, which is there. If it makes a red candle like this next week, the Bollinger band will widen and then it could be the start of a possible wave on XRP. It's being rejected by the 50 RSI in Weekly, the Bs are there, it will follow the others. Well, so for the daily, we'll look tomorrow for now, calmly, it's falling. It's not below its lower Bollinger band, so it's okay. If tomorrow or tonight it breaks 21, then it stinks, it will fall. Well, so XRP, the problem is that with this wick, it broke everything. Now, some tell me "Fou vi, remove XRP because now the structure doesn't look like anything anymore." Well, I agree, but I thought if I don't analyze XRP, many will be unhappy because, well, it's part of a big cap, but at the structural level, it's so broken now that it will take months and months for it to return to a new structure that is rather good. And like everyone, it has a little bit to look for to the south, but not much, and everything is to the north. Well, that's it friends for this long video. Sorry for making a long video. At least, I think with this video, I've given you information so that you can form an idea of whether we are in a bear market, be careful, finance is not binary, it's not plus or minus, it's not black or white. There are many colors in between, you see. It's all a question of probability. It's not "we are in a bear market," "we are in a bull run." The problem is that many newcomers think like that. It's bull run, it's bear market. Here it's, we're going up or down? That's not finance. Clearly, it's not that. Well, and with time, we learn. We need time, hope. Big up friends, big kisses. We'll meet tonight for the live at 9 PM. See you soon. Bye bye.