Transcription
前一陣子我看了影視颶風的Tim參加羅永浩的一個長播客， 分享了他的成功的經歷。
然後這個視頻播出之後，果不其然，網上出現了很多的小作文來分析為什麼Tim成功？ 有人就說因為他是個富二代，他有一個好爹。 甚至當Tim試圖證明自己富二代身份對自己的影響有限的時候， 有人也會去找出他前後邏輯矛盾的一些點。
我看到這個之後呢，其實挺有感觸的，因為這其實反映了我們當代人對待他人成功的一個態度。 那這種態度呢，我認為是非常重要的，因為它直接就決定了你會採取什麼樣的決策和行動。 所以我就想做一個話題，來討論我們應該如何去對待他人的成功。
那這個話題呢，其實對我個人來說也是有現實意義的，因為我現在也在創業，而Tim呢，他同樣也是一個創作者和創業者。 但是在具體討論這個話題之前，我們有必要分析下為什麼我們會對他人的成功輕易地否定，為什麼這樣是不OK的？
(背景音樂)
首先我想說，就是如果你非常輕易地會去否定他人的成功，表現出一股酸葡萄的話呢，那就只能說明你是一個正常人，因為這是刻在你的基因裡的。 心理學上管這個叫做自立性歸因。 你看這裡面有兩個字叫做歸因，那它有一個特點就是我們會用非常簡單壓縮過的原因來解釋一些現象。
那有一句話不是這麼說的嗎？就是別人的成功全都是因為別人走運，那我的成功全都是因為我努力。 那這就讓自己來開刀了，就是在有一段時間我對這些做吃喝玩樂的播主呢，我是有點看不上的，就是我會經常說一句話，這個東西有什麼技術含量啊？ 隱藏義就是說我是不做，假如我做，我會做得比他們要更好。
那這就讓想起來我們之前一口西方讀書會讀的被討厭的勇氣裡面說的，我的這種評論其實更加是一種easy superiority，就是非常容易獲取的那種優越感啊，因為你說那個東西很簡單，你不屑一顧去做，所以你永遠不做，你永遠不做，那就永遠無法證明你會失敗，你永遠處在這個不敗之地，那這本質上就是為了讓自己感到舒服，感到一種優越感，是在掩蓋自己的自卑和不安全感。
(背景音樂)
那這個自立性歸因呢，非常有意思的是，除了在我們面對別人成功的時候，我們會輕易地用簡單的原因對它進行否定之外，我們在面臨別人失敗的時候也會有類似的現象，只不過它是反過來的，就是所謂的幸災樂禍。
我相信大家都聽說過受害者有罪論這個詞，就是比如說一個女性遭到別人的侵犯了啊，很快你就會看到有人評論說一定是你穿著不檢點，你一定哪兒有問題啊。 如果有人在網上發帖子說自己遭遇車禍了，我相信大家都見過這種帖子，評論區會突然出來很多老司機，駕駛技術嫻熟，又是遵紀守法的老司機去評論，就說一定是你這個po主有問題，你開車哪裡不講這個commonsense，你犯了什麼什麼低級錯誤，哪怕這個責任是對方全責，那這些人也一定會去暗示一定是你在開車的時候出現了什麼問題，那這就是典型的幸災樂禍。
所以我們說自立性歸因，它這裡面自立性是非常的重要，所有的這些東西都是為了突出你自己有優越感，你比別人要強。 所以這裡順便說一句，就如果你打算在網上去分享你的一些不幸的遭遇的話，一定<bos>做好心理準備，一定有人會對你落井下石。
所以為什麼我們會有這種自立性歸因的這種本能呢？ 那這就要追溯到我們的遠古時期。 我說遠古時期不是什麼農耕時期，而是像北京山頂洞人一樣的那樣的遠古時期。 主要有三個原因。
第一呢，就是因為我們面臨的這個世界是充滿了未知和不確定性的，所以我們會充滿各種焦慮。 那這時候我們就需要一種非常快速極簡的一種歸因方式，能夠減緩我們的這種焦慮，這就是所謂的二元思維，黑白思維。 你比如說今天山神發怒了，所以它會地震啊，今天老天爺心情不高興，所以呢天氣就會變得非常的糟糕。 或者說Tim他之所以成功，就是因為他是個富二代。
第二呢，這跟我們遠古時代的求生方式是有關的，只有你保持這種自尊和自信，你第二天才有士氣去繼續去打獵。 你比如說，如果你打獵沒有成功，然後你給自己歸因，說哦，因為我太笨了，我是一個loser，那你第二天你可能就不想去打獵了，那這個時候呢，你可能面臨的直接的結果就是死亡。 因為這裡有一個前提非常的重要，就是我們在遠古時代，我們求生的方式是非常有限的，去打獵這種行為是你不得不去做的一個行為，當你沒有選擇的時候，你就需要給自己去打氣，哪怕你的這種歸因是一種自我麻痺式的一種敘事方式。
那第三個原因呢，呃，我們這種自尊和自信呢，也非常有利於我們在一個群體生活中生存。 因為人類是一種社會性群體，那這個時候呢，我們經常會產生一種競爭和比較，尤其是在遠古時代這種物資特別貧乏的這種時候，那我們的同伴是進行的是一種零和遊戲的。 所以你的這種自尊自信呢，能夠維持你在這個群體當中繼續生存下去的一種動力。 那很多時候你需要去展示出這種自尊和自信的。所以甩鍋給別人，把功勞全都歸結給自己呢，是有它的社會的意義的。
所以你看到嗎？這種所謂的自立性歸因，很多時候它其實是一種自我欺騙，一種不準確的，額自我麻醉。 它在遠古時代對我們的生存實際上是非常有利的。
那這就讓我想起來，額塔利布在黑天鵝裡面說的，其實我們的這種自立性歸因，它更多的是一種敘事方式，其實就是講一個故事來讓自己額相信，讓自己和這個世界和解。 那他裡面提到一點非常有意思，就是因為這個東西是我們的本能，你可以去做一個實驗，就是當你嘗試不去給一個現象做出一個解釋的時候，它需要你花出的這種額能量和努力，比你去嘗試去做一個解釋要更多，你是無法控制自己的。
甚至更進一步，塔利布把這種自立性歸因稱之為一種therapy，一種自我理療，或者說自我心理按摩。 額這時候呢，我們在遇到那些我們不明白的事情的時候，我們會給它一個極簡的一個壓縮過的一個歸因，讓我們心裡感到舒服。 比如說Tim，他成功就是因為他是個富二代，他有一個好爸爸，然後我們感到很舒服，然後我們就move on，一切都顯得那麼合理。
但是這並不合理，問題就出在了我們的move on上，因為我們這種來自於遠古時代的，額自我心理理療，它在現代世界，它不僅沒有幫到我們，反而在傷害我們。
(歡快的背景音樂)
我之前很多影片裡都提到過一個觀點，那就是我們原始世界賴以生存的本能，到了現代社會反成了一種累贅。 這是因為啊，額，我們的環境改變了，那這些古老的本能和現代社會就產生了一種錯配。 那這反映在自立性歸因上，就是它雖然依然能對我們進行心理按摩，但是它從之前的鼓勵我們去勇於嘗試，變成了讓我們變得更加躲避，不去行動。
這是什麼原因呢？ 那我們剛才提到遠古時代大多數時候人們都是在掙扎求生的，而求生的方式非常有限，沒得選，無論頭一天發生什麼，你第二天都不得不鼓起勇氣去打獵。 那這個時候，我們的心理按摩就超級有用。
但在現代社會啊，情況完全變了，我們成功的方式有太多種，而活下來這件事變得容易得多。 那這就又讓我想起了剛才我們說的，額被討厭的勇氣這本書。 那它裡面說啊，很多人把過去的不幸，你比如說童年原生家庭當成持久的創傷，抓住不放，這本質上是把創傷變成了藉口，甚至武器，讓自己關在自己的世界裡，不去嘗試和改變。
可是我們要知道，這在遠古時代是不可能的，因為不行動你就會直接面臨死亡的威脅。 但是在現代社會你就可以，即使你不去改變，很多時候你依然可以活下去。 不去接受挑戰，成了一種容易的選項。 那我們這種心理按摩的本能呢，在現在就反而起到了反作用，成了一種詛咒。
而且我不知道你有沒有注意到，就是我們關於成功在運氣裡的討論，在遠古時代和當代啊，在語境上有一些微妙的區別。 在遠古時代，運氣更像是一種額暫時的隨機的抽卡，那今天風向不好，那明天也許就好了。 但是在現代社會，當我們再去討論運氣的時候，我們更加指的是那種結構性的運氣，你比如說你的出身、資本關係、國別、性別等等。 問題在於，這些卡大多數的時候你只能抽一次。
這就讓自立性歸因的反作用更進一步加大，它直接拉低了你的主觀可控性，它在告訴你，我做也沒用，讓你更加去躲避接受挑戰。 但我知道你可能會說，難道這不是事實嗎？投胎難道在當今世界不是很重要嗎？ 對，不錯，但它只是事實的一部分而已。
那這是我想說的，我們這種自立性歸因和現代社會的第二種錯配。 那相比遠古世界啊，成功在現代世界就變得更加地複雜和多樣。 那我之前做過一個視頻，就是專門講運氣和實力在成功中，它所佔比的關係的，那結論就是，它們之間有很多微妙的動態的關係。
你當然可以說Tim們的成功是因為家境好，他有個好爹，但是社會上有大把的窮人家的孩子成功的例子，也有很多富二代失敗的例子呀。 當你把Tim們的成功單純地歸因為是家境好的時候，它不僅不準確，反而很危險。 這是因為啊，在遠古時期可複製的成功方法是極其有限的，當你把別人的成功簡單歸結為運氣的時候，你丟掉的有用信息其實並不多。
但是 in modern world, success includes too many learnable, replicable methods and systems. You can learn from birth to adulthood, the main task is learning, and to succeed in this world, you need to learn for life. Learning is the core part of achieving success in modern civilization. And that simple attribution will make you miss learning opportunities.
So, the losses brought by self-attribution in modern society far outweigh the temporary comfort it brings.
Finally, our instinct also mismatches the feedback mechanism. In ancient times, your comforting explanation was relatively efficient because you had fewer people to compare and compete with in the tribe. But it's different in modern society. Social media infinitely expands the scope of our comparison. You are no longer comparing with those few people, but with the most outstanding people in the world. Moreover, this is an era of high dataization and repeatable verification. Your comforting explanation will be constantly slapped in the face by reality. This cruel feedback, coupled with infinite comparison, will intensify your psychological massage, make you numb, lead to a vicious cycle, more avoidance, miss learning opportunities, make you stagnate, and move further and further away from success.
OK, I know you might say, that's simple, I won't attribute it simply, I'll just learn. But as we said, this is against your instinct, and it's not possible. We must realize that we still need that psychological massage. You need to feel good to do things. The essence of the problem is not that you need massage, but that our massage techniques from ancient times have become poison in modern society. So to solve the problem, we need to find a new narrative, a new psychological massage that conforms to the laws of the contemporary world, allowing us to feel comfortable while also accepting challenges and continuing to learn.
So, what narrative should we use to treat the success of others?
(Relaxing music)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb said in The Black Swan that there are three best ways to combat this wrong narrative: to favor experimentation over storytelling, experience over history, and clinical knowledge over theories. But I think he is still fighting against our instincts. So I propose that when we face the success of others, we should follow these three correct narratives: to favor how over why, truth over feelings, and progress over winning.
(Relaxing music)
Why should we focus on how rather than why? Because when you study why, you tend to give a so-called reasonable explanation. This stimulates our instinct to attribute, the original binary thinking, compressing everything extremely, simplifying it extremely, and losing the rich details within. When you study how, you will find that you pay more attention to details, and more importantly, you will pay attention to action. You will study the decisions made by others in their success. Even if you analyze that there is an element of luck in their success, when you study how, you will also ask yourself, how can I be as lucky as him?
This reminds us of an interesting part of Tim's interview. His father gave him advice on how to deal with partners, such as dividing money with partners rather than dividing shares. I saw a small essay on the internet saying, "Look, although his father didn't give him much money, can ordinary parents give their children such life advice?" I found it very interesting because, uh, I'm also starting a business recently, and I'm facing the difficulty of distributing benefits and cutting the cake with my partners. What do I do? I clearly don't have such a good father, so I read all sorts of books. Uh, I read a book called Split the Pie, which says exactly the same thing. So you see, when you study how, reading a few good books is much easier than having a good father. But when you study why, you conclude that because he has a good father to give him such advice, and I don't have such a good father, then it's fixed, and I can never achieve the success he has.
This reminds me of a book we read in our book club, Thinking in Bets, which says that life is more like a deck of cards than a chessboard. Because chess is all on the surface, you can see others' moves, and everything seems to be written, your destiny is predetermined. But cards are not. Cards are full of luck and uncertainty. One can say, your life is not about what kind of cards you have, but how you play the cards in your hand. So when we focus on how rather than why, you give yourself a new narrative, which is you are an action taker, you are a learner, rather than an explainer. So, don't explain others' success, we should study how to succeed.
But focusing on how is not easy, because when you look at the details of others' success, you are easily influenced by your emotions. For example, when you study how people with good family backgrounds like Tim succeed, you will find that, oh, they really have more trial-and-error costs and higher safety margins. At this time, if you feel unfair, frustrated, or even angry, it is easy to stimulate your attribution instinct, and you will strike it down with one blow, attribute it with a very simple phrase, and then make yourself avoid taking action. So at this time, we need a new narrative, which is truth over feelings. Are you studying the truth, or are you dealing with your emotions?
I find that when we are alone and dealing with the success of others, we can often achieve self-reflection and pursue the truth. But when we are in a group and interacting with others, it is actually more difficult to do so. For example, uh, I am starting a business now, and I have my startup partners. We often discuss our development. At this time, uh, there are two places that might make you focus on your feelings rather than the truth. The first is that, uh, as a collective, when we study our relationship with, uh, the audience or customers, we often fall into the trap of, oh, these people don't understand us, they don't appreciate our products, etc., etc., creating a bubble for ourselves. At this time, it becomes a collective focus on our feelings rather than studying the truth. The second point is that when our peers evaluate each other, we are also easily hurt by our feelings. So I find that when we are with the team, we need to have a consensus before any discussion, which is our truth over feeling, we are here to seek the truth. At this time, the narrative we give ourselves is that we are truth seekers, explorers of truth.
In the book Thinking in Bets, it mentions a buddy system aimed at truth, which is also a team culture that I am trying to build in my entrepreneurial journey. I strongly recommend everyone to read this book.
(Relaxing music)
A while ago, I saw a very interesting repost on Twitter. Someone complained that a classmate who was worse than him in terms of conditions, intelligence, and learning suddenly became very successful at a certain moment in his life, which made him very angry and feel very unfair. Then, a very good comment below said, "Please don't take others' success as your own failure."
So you see, the problem with the poster is that when he deals with the success of others, he thinks it's a zero-sum game. Others win, which must mean I fail. This is his oldest instinct at play. Do you remember? We said earlier that in ancient times, because of the scarcity of resources, in a group, you were more likely to be playing a zero-sum game with your friends. This book says that life is like cards, but it's not like cards, because cards are a zero-sum game, but life in modern society is not a zero-sum game. Because if you want to succeed, if you want to make money, to put it crudely, there are too many ways. So we need a new narrative, which is progress over winning. What you should really focus on is not winning, because if there is winning, there is always losing. What you should really focus on is your own progress. I only compare myself to myself. How much change have I made compared to the past? At this time, the narrative you give yourself is that I am a progressive, not a winner or a loser.
In fact, for a long time, I've wanted to write an article called "Your Mountaintop and the Rich Second Generation's Dad." This is because, uh, I was chatting with a friend from our community a while ago, and he did something very interesting. He infiltrated a club of rich second-generation people, wanting to see what life was like for rich second-generation people. As a result, he found that many of them were in their twenties and thirties, and they talked about their dads every day. Oh, how my dad is, how your dad is, my dad is going to give me money again, my dad is not giving me money, and so on and so forth. You will find that, suddenly, not all of them, but some of these so-called rich second-generation people. You will find that their troubles in life are actually trapped by their dads, which is the factor we envy so much.
So everyone's reality is very different. This brings us back to what was said in the book The Courage to Be Disliked. It says, what is life? If life is climbing a mountain, is the position at the summit the most important, or is the process of climbing the most important? It gives an analogy: a so-called rich second-generation person is born with a helicopter and is directly placed at the summit. When we are not so-called rich second-generation people, we may have to climb the mountain. Perhaps we will never reach the position where others were born, but you enjoy the process of climbing. Seeing the scenery along the way, do you really get directly placed at the summit by a helicopter? Of course, that's also an experience.
But this brings us back to what I often say, that there is no such concept as missing out in life. If you are a rich second-generation person, your daily complaint may be about your dad, and you have missed the process of climbing. Similarly, when you are climbing, you may never reach the so-called highest point and see the scenery at the highest point, but you have the process of climbing. What you need to do is to enjoy this process and enjoy the scenery in front of you.
So, these are the three narratives I shared today on how to treat others' success. At this point, it is quite helpful for me, because when I am starting a business, when I look at my companions, especially when I am doing business with the world, I have to deal with my own progress and the comparison with the success of others. So the mindset at this time is very, very important. So, sharing this video is also for you and me to encourage each other.
In this video, I mentioned several books, but in fact, what I am doing now is, look, I have several bags of books. I am now in my mountain guesthouse. Because I have a book club called "One Bite New Meal," we have read many books in the past. Now that I am starting a business, I really need to apply the knowledge from the books to practice. So I have given myself a challenge, which is to live in the mountains for a period of time and review the books we have read in the past. This video is the result of this review, because when I was flipping through these books and watching recent podcasts, I suddenly had some insights. You will find that the narratives I am talking about are what the so-called success studies have always said, but in fact, sometimes we have a confusion, which is why we persuade ourselves like this? Are we really deceiving ourselves?
This episode aims to explain to you that, yes, this is a narrative, but your simple attribution is also a narrative. Since both are narratives, which one is more beneficial to you and more in line with the laws of contemporary society? These so-called chicken soup, these so-called success studies, the correct principles taught in these books, all have their practical significance. Uh, I believe that by understanding this level, we can better apply these books to our lives. So, if you are interested, you are also welcome to join our One Bite New Meal book club. And November is a month of reviewing the old and learning the new. What I am doing is rereading the books we have read in the past. And I also strongly encourage you in front of the screen to do this, whether you join the community or not, to reread the books you have read in the past and see if there are any new inspirations.