Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Saturday, September 27, 2025, in front of a completely green crypto market. This is the performance over the last 24 hours, and on the right, what is this red map? Well, it's the performance of cryptos over the last 30 days. Why am I showing this? Because in 3 days, we have the closing of the month of September. So I'm going to do a little monthly analysis. Is this September closing good? Is it ultimately going rather smoothly? Will we continue to push for several months with a bull run, an altcoin season that has already started, or are there ugly divergences that could really, really hurt us for several months? We're going to look at that. Little spoiler: if you have tissues nearby, bring them closer.
Okay, so for now, the last 24 hours are not too bad, but there are small bullish channels forming, and small bullish channels often don't end well. So that's why we need to be careful. Well, I showed you this in the video on the VIP Telegram channel this morning, as every morning.
Now, regarding Ethereum ETFs, it's been a week of selling, with even BlackRock ending up with 200 million in sales on Friday. BlackRock doesn't sell often. So, just on Thursday and Friday, it was 500 million dollars in Ethereum sales, and if we add Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, well, you have 300 million more, so roughly 800 million in Ethereum sales. Bitcoin had similar sales, around 800 million. Wednesday and Thursday's days are canceled, but 400 million here and almost 400 million there, so that makes even between 800 and 900 million. So the ETFs, unfortunately, are sellers. It's not great.
On one hand, the on-chain data I shared with you on the various social networks, whether Telegram, Twitter, or Discord, shows that the big whales have been distributing since $124,000, and that short-term holders, who are currently hitting $109,000, their average purchase price, are panicking and selling even lower. They can panic even more and sell at a loss, and on top of that, the ETFs are selling behind them, so they're not really supporting us. Furthermore, MicroStrategy, a treasury company, is buying much less, it's no longer like "Yes, we bought 5,000, 10,000 Bitcoin, 15,000 Bitcoin." If they bought 150 Bitcoin, 300, 800, you see, there's no more money, in fact, you're scraping the bottom. Well, so that's why cryptos, you've understood, are not very, very cheerful.
Now, in front of us, it's the total 3 of altcoins on a monthly chart. Well, right now, do we have a divergence telling us we're going to crash? Not yet. The first divergence was in January. In January, we were here. We'll look at the videos from January. Well, I was saying, "Beware of monthly divergence on altcoins, but after that, everyone does what they want." To give an example, when Bitcoin closed this summer at $124,000, *poof*, the bearish weekly divergence on Bitcoin lit up. By nature, being cautious in finance, what do I do? *Poof*, my brain goes, "weekly divergence." I take profits, I secure, I take my belongings and I leave. No, that's not true. Well, I don't leave, I secure a little. I put some stablecoins aside, not a huge amount. But enough to say that if, by chance, we crash, I played it safe. I prefer to play it safe rather than in "Ah, it'll be fine" or "We'll see" mode. No, that's not my thing, you see. Well, this isn't finance, it's not mathematics. This is faith.
Well, so daily divergences, not too serious. A daily divergence is a bit of a setback. It turns a bit red, not too serious. Weekly divergence can mean several weeks, many weeks of red. Monthly divergence can mean several months of red. You understand? So, for example, with the altcoins, the monthly divergence that arrived in January, well, there were two camps. Those who said, "I'm cautious," I like to call them "Team Too Early." I'm part of Team Too Early. Those who say, "Too early, Team Too Early, Team Cautious, I'm putting stablecoins aside, I'm doing my best to secure a lot." Well, they would have been right because the divergence on altcoins led to a nearly -50% drop between February, March, and then April. Well, so those who said, "Come on, it's fine, it's a bit painful." Well, why am I saying this now? For now, no divergence. To have the divergence, altcoins would have had to surpass this monthly high here at 878 billion dollars. Since they didn't surpass it, it's not diverging. However, we do see the momentum decreasing here, the RSI decreasing, but since the price has decreased, it's still okay. Well, so no divergence for now. Altcoins, well, on the monthly chart, nothing special, they're just moving. If they start to hit the high here, there will be monthly divergences. So if we see a month or two of altcoins exploding and hitting new highs, and the RSI and MACD don't follow, well, that will create divergences. We shouldn't be greedy at all, but for now, it's okay.
Regarding our Bitcoin, no, sorry, this is the daily chart now, it's the daily. So for now, on Thursday, we lost the 50-day moving average, and we can't recover it. Today is really a very sluggish day. Well, the bears are here. We don't forget the structure here on the daily. Its objective would be to continue falling to reach 695 billion dollars here. After that, it doesn't have to fall in a straight line like that. Here, we have a first aggressive wave, let's call it wave A. In the worst case, altcoins can then make an upward wave B and finish on a wave C, and it's wave C, for example, that can break the low, and that will be a regular pattern to start again. Some people also like these structures, they call them uh butterfly patterns, something like that. Well, who cares, so it doesn't have to fall in a straight line. Falling in a straight line, but at least it's resolved more quickly. If it starts to make a regular pattern like that, it will just last longer before starting again. So here, well, we'll have to tighten our belts a bit. For now, we have a small channel here. Is there an impulse? An impulse, correction, continuation for a small regular pattern that will fall later. Well, it's a continuation. Anyway, the weekend often doesn't bring much. So, I'll move on, we'll rather look at the monthly chart on our beloved Bitcoin.
So, the monthly on Bitcoin. Well, not super exciting. Already, we see that the price is rising, rising, rising very well. Since here, April 2024, it rose until January 2025 and rose until August 2025. Well, the problem is that we have an RSI that is decreasing and decreasing, uh, that doesn't look good. So, there is divergence on the MACD. Here too, we have a little bit of divergence. That is to say, Bitcoin since here, January, you see, the MACD, so the momentum is decreasing, but the price is increasing. So these are divergences on the MACD. That doesn't look very good. The divergence on the MACD. It happened at the same time as the weekly, it was in August, simply at the end of August, at the closing of August. Well, so that's not great. On the RSI too. The RSI, you see, we have the price increasing, and the RSI decreasing. So, a small divergence on the RSI. So, in short, what is it telling us? It's that Bitcoin is rising, rising, making new highs, but the momentum indicators are not following. So, these momentum divergences, that's not very good. That's why, well, it's the consequence of the weekly divergences that have risen to the monthly level. So that's why we need to be a bit cautious. Uh, cautious means what? Well, me, being cautious, after all, it's easy, I'm fully in Bitcoin. In profit in Bitcoin because everyone is in profit in Bitcoin because Bitcoin has made a new all-time high, meaning everyone is in profit. So it's easier to take profits. That's clear. Those who are in altcoins, well, it's more complicated. Everyone unfortunately has their own portfolio. We see that the September candle is an inverted hammer candle, meaning with a large wick and a small body. So if it closes like this, it's heading towards the Tenkan Sen at a minimum of $95,500. This is the first major monthly support. Knowing that the Tenkan Sen has held up quite a few times. We saw it when we came out of the bear market here, here, July 2024, August 2024, September 2024, it held, it held, October 2024, it held, November 2024, it held, February 2025, March 2025, April 2025, so we could quite possibly see it. The Tenkan Sen holds at $99,000 or $100,000, roughly, and then it goes up again. So, a little trip to $100,000, you really shouldn't be surprised. $99,000, around 400, is the monthly Tenkan Sen. Now, a monthly candle closing like this, say, October and November closing around $100,000 like this, it's heading towards the Kijun Sen at $74,000-$75,000, you see, and then the 50-day moving average is waiting at $53,000, it's really, it's hello Mr. Bear Market. Well, so for now, we feel that things don't smell like roses for our beloved Bitcoin. If all goes well, it's $100,000. If it doesn't go well, it's $75,000, that's the idea. You see, on the daily chart, so for now, it's making its little bullish channel. So on the daily, I'll go quickly, nothing has changed compared to yesterday. As long as Bitcoin is trading in a small bullish channel, there's a higher probability that it will break the low, quite simply, at $107,000. That's the idea. After that, there are also several scenarios, I've shown them to you quickly. Don't forget that if it decides to correct its rise from $74,000, if it decides to correct this entire rise, well, it can go down to $98,000, this low. But if it starts to break this low, it tells us "I'm starting a larger corrective structure." That is to say, all of this will be a wave A, then a wave B, and then a wave C, which can go much lower, like saying hello to the monthly Kijun Sen around $74,000. You see, that remains a very possible scenario. Well, but to go from one scenario to another, we need validations. It's not now that we say "Oh my god, we're going to $74,000." It's not when we're at $124,000 that we say "Oh, it's already going up." No. We need validations. Something needs to happen for us to say "Okay, we're in this scenario." I can bring up many scenarios. For now, the scenario we're currently in is small A, small B, small C. I'll look below $107,000. So, I can look for $105,000, even $100,000. And then, I'll explode to all-time highs. If we start breaking $100,000, well, we can go for the structure where this is the big wave A, then after the big wave B, then a wave C that can go much lower. There. But we'll see each thing in its own time.
Now, regarding liquidity, it's rather on the bullish side. Why? Because there's much more to the north. So, can Bitcoin nibble up to $105,000-$106,000 a bit? Yes, but we see that there's not much left. Below, around $105,000, there's not much. So why go straight to $75,000? We won't go there, you see. You understand? So for now, we have, yes, the large leverage is up to $107,100. Just to validate the structure. This structure that we've been following for a long time on the daily. This structure that we've been following for quite some time. Just breaking $107,000 here, A, B, C. Then Bitcoin can explode directly in all-time high mode. Well, yes, the regular pattern is validated. Well, anyway, you see, but we need to break $107,200, and so the futures tell us, well, it's enough to break $107,000. Go, it can aim for $106,000, $105,000 if it wants. Go, $104,000 if it really wants to clean everything up, like Mr. Profit wants it to be clean, you see. But after that, boom, it can make a nice rise towards $121,000-$123,000, you see, because there's still more than 15 billion to liquidate, don't forget that. So large leverage up to $107,000, it can nibble up to $105,000. But at the top, don't forget that large leverage is up to $112,000, it can nibble up to $114,000, or even more.
Now, Ethereum. So, if you have tissues for the, and really pay attention to what I'm saying because it's, it's perhaps a bit serious for Ethereum, but don't forget that I'm just an analyst. I'm passionate, I'm not a professional at all, I love it. My passion, I, I, I share my passion with you. It's not because I say "Oh my god, it stinks" that it will happen, I'm not Nostradamus. Okay? Why am I saying this? Take some precautions because what we have in front of us, what I have in front of me for Ethereum is not good at all. Well, but perhaps technical analysis will be useless and Ethereum will go to the moon. Okay? Well, that's to tell you, don't take what I say as gospel, like "Foufi said Ethereum is not good, I'm selling all my Ethereum." No, no, no, don't do that, okay? Listen to yourselves. Well, and look at several scenarios, several people. Why am I saying this? Ethereum, with its August closing, triggers a series of monumental divergences, especially. It diverges especially on the monthly. There. So I'm giving you the information. I'm telling you, Ethereum has divergence on almost all indicators. There. So what does that mean? It means that, well, it can, it can make a small correction, a medium, or a very large one. You see, that's the idea. If it makes a medium correction, it can aim for the Kijun Sen at $3,180. That would be more of a gentle to medium correction, if you like. A medium correction would be aiming for the 50-day moving average at $2,500. And an unpleasant correction is aiming for the Ichimoku Cloud at $1,600. You really need to be very careful. Ethereum has divergences there. There's this monthly divergence all of a sudden. The last time this happened, well, it's never happened since 2015, since monthly analysis, you see. That's why we need to be a little careful. There are really a lot of divergences there. So what does that mean? At best, at best, it can make a small range. So, zigzag, zigzag, zigzag. It's stuck above $3,000, you see, between $3,000 and $5,000. There. Let's say, if we're being nice, a range between 3 and 5000. There, that's if we're nice. If we're not nice, it's perhaps a nuclear descent on Ethereum. So, well, now, if we draw the Fibonacci from the end of the bear market, a major support is $3,400, the 38% Fibonacci. That's $3,400, then it's heading towards the 50-day moving average at $2,500. So, here, Ethereum, be very careful with all these divergences, it's scary. Bitcoin would be there, it would be like "Oh my god." There. So, I'm telling you, well, those who are fully in Ethereum, just be careful, think about what you want to do. Perhaps it won't do anything, perhaps it will really hurt a lot. There, that's the idea. But I don't want to scare you, I'm just showing you that the analysis tells us it's diverging monthly everywhere. So, we just need to take that into account.
On the daily chart, well, good news, it went to seek its oversold zone here. So it could bounce back. Very good. So, in short, what did its structure tell us here? It tells us that since it broke the low at $4,000, which was, uh, Monday, September 22nd, it tells us "I'm starting a new corrective structure, quite simply." There. So, in short, well, all of this will be a wave A, then after that there will be a wave B, and then after that, well, wave B, there will be a wave C. Boom! There. Knowing that it still has gaps to fill on the daily at $2,853. $2,853 on the monthly, where is that? It's above the moving average. It's here. Plus, you have a Kijun Sen there. So, a little ETH that will go to seek $2,853, which is also the daily 200-day moving average. Well, you shouldn't be surprised, you shouldn't say "But why is it falling to $2,800? I don't understand, it's not possible." And then you'll remember. But yes, Fi had said at the end of September that Ethereum was diverging monthly and that we needed to be careful, that it might not be good. So, there, that's why we need to be careful. Be careful, Ethereum is telling us "I'm starting a corrective structure, an A, a B, a C." Well, it can stop at C before $3,355, but it can decide to break $335. In any case, briefly, on the monthly, really be careful, all these divergences, it's tough, it's tough, it's tough. Well, it's monthly, so it's not what could happen in the coming months. Now, on the daily, what could happen next week is that Ethereum could also have a nice little rise. It's perhaps wave B. Why? Because to the south, there's not much left to seek. It can nibble up to $3,800, if it wants to go, at most $3,750. You can nibble up to $3,750. If wave A that you saw falling from $3,750 is not far. It's right next to it. However, after that, boom, it can go up to $4,400 to make wave B, and then boom, it can make a wave C to aim, for example, below $3,350, you see, below this thing. There. And after that, boom, it can start again, try to make a new all-time high if it can, you see. There. So that's what the daily is telling us. Well, so we can clearly see that it's not going to be $8,000 or $10,000 straight away, especially with the monthly divergences, it's tough.
Solana now. So, Solana, no divergence. Why? Well, because it hasn't done anything, you see. I mean, it hasn't gone up. Solana's divergences arrived in January. There. Monthly divergence in January, I told you. And divergence, well, there are those who are cautious who say "Ah, it's diverging monthly, I'm playing it, I'm playing it the Foufi cautious way, I'm putting some stablecoins aside, you see." I mean, I'm doing things. And those who did that, well, bravo, because if we're being nice, Solana is down 58%. If we're being very nice, it's down 46%. Solana, for example, went from over $300 down to $93 with the monthly divergence, you see, on the monthly divergence here in January 2025. So, Team Too Early, Team Foufi Too Early, well, they took profits, perhaps even too early, perhaps at $250 instead of $295, you never catch the top. You see, you can even take profits at $238, thinking "Oh my god, it's diverging monthly, I'm taking profits here." You were on the monthly candle. Well, you could have reinvested here on the Kijun at $150, or even on the 50-day moving average. Well, that's a bit what Ethereum could do, basically. Ethereum, with all the divergences, could have one or two bad months, that's the idea. For now, Solana, it's not diverging, no divergence. The bears are getting a bit tired. It's not bad, after all, it did reach $90. Well, it took a hit for now, it's also trading quietly in a small channel. So, we'll see in the very long term, this kind of small bullish channel, well, it can last for many months, eventually it will break, but for now, Solana, nothing special. Monthly, it can continue its little life. There, it's not diverging, it has support at $196, otherwise the major support it has is $156 here. It explodes at my Bollinger band at $232, it's off, new all-time high. Well, on the daily, it's close to the oversold zone. It's a very good, very good place to take a hit. The 50-day moving average at $208 tells it, for now, no. Solana, well, it's a new structure, quite simply. So, a wave A, when it's finished, there will be a wave B, and then after that, a wave C. So, we have to wait for wave A to finish. Perhaps Bitcoin will surely decide, but given Bitcoin, it's on a small bullish channel that has a higher probability of breaking. This could be small A, small B, small C, a small regular pattern to then break. Well, anyway, it's not moving much. We'll see tomorrow for the daily as well. And the advantage for the next few days is that there's not much left. Even if everyone corrects a bit, Bitcoin won't go to $100,000, I think, to $95,000 all at once, because there's not much left to seek for everyone. Solana, you have up to $493 for large leverage, and then that's it. After that, you can explode to go towards $220, you see.
Well, and for XRP. XRP, well, it's been the same story, the major monthly divergence arrived in July. Well, but for now, it had, it had two setbacks. The first one with its extreme overbought zone when it hit $3 here, after that it just corrected for what? For 2 months, 3 months, it went to seek, ah, it's down 45%. See, because when XRP was here in bullish territory, I was the first to tell you it stinks, so overbought, so extreme that this is the zone where people take profits, like, really take profits. The money, on the monthly chart, it's almost unprecedented. XRP, the last time it was like this was in 2021, when it was just at 74 on the RSI, then it pushes, it explodes to 85 on the RSI, but of course, you have to take profits. Well, so bravo to those who took profits around $3, between $3 and $3.40. And then you have -40% to -50% to reinvest. So, here again, XRP made a new high, the RSI didn't. The MACD didn't. So the divergence on XRP was in July. So, August was cool, you see, a small red candle. Now, September is holding well at $2.64. If $2.64 gives way, it's hello to $2.02, you see. So be careful, we have prices going up, the RSI decreasing, that's divergent, it's not very good. So XRP, its 38% Fibonacci is at $2.40, that will also be a support, otherwise it will be a descent to $2.02, or between, or below $1.69. So XRP, well, the divergence already started last month. Compared to the divergence, it's still okay, it's at -10%, so it's still gentle. So, that means it can take a bit more of a hit on the daily. Well, its structure is a bit ahead, compared to everyone else. Uh, so here it has the small A, the small B that zigzags, the small C. Very good. And then boom, so it's validated. So, eventually, it, given that it's validated, it can try to start again and to seek above $3.38. The problem is that, well, it has a gap to fill also at $2.52. Not everything is good. Will it continue to fall, fall to seek $2.52, then turn around later? That remains possible. If we look at liquidity, there's enough to eat. It could go to $2.52 because the large leverage is up to $2.72. After that, it can go up to $2.60, it can go down. So if it goes to $2.60, which is around there, it can go, *poof*, close its gap, you see. At least it's resolved, you see. And like everyone else to the north, it has some nice opportunities. Well, no, there.
So, now you're going to tell me, well, Foufi, okay, I didn't understand because you're telling us that monthly it stinks, but on the daily, you're telling us we'll nibble a little bit lower and then we'll push, we'll nibble a little bit lower, even for Ethereum, and we'll push. Yes, I agree with you, but this "nibble a little bit lower and push" can last 2 weeks, you see. Monthly is the coming months, the next 2-3 months. So we can correct. I mean, a big mistake, you see. We can correct, for example, all next week, Bitcoin will aim for $105,000, $103,000, $104,000, I don't know. For 2 weeks in October, 3 weeks in October, *boom*, it will aim for $121,000 and then *foof*, it will reverse, and it's the Kijun Sen. And that, that's the monthly divergence that tells you, well, November, December could be hell, you see. Well, no, there. So, be careful, I'm not happy. I mean, I'm much more exposed in Bitcoin than in altcoins, than in stablecoins. So I don't want to fall to $1,500. I don't want that at all. I'm happy with $100,000 to take some more profit. There. But so, be careful. So, in short, it's not very, very good on the monthly chart. On the daily, short-term, we expect perhaps a little more nibbling lower, but not much, as there's not much liquidity left to the south. Eventually, *paf*, it will make a nice wave up. I think we'll have a big week, or even 10 days of pushing. But the monthly, we'll have to watch it because it's not good, with Ethereum, these billions of divergences, we'll have to, well, watch all of that.
Sending kisses. Thank you for listening, and we'll talk again soon. Bye bye.