Transcription
Hello everyone. So, I hope you are all doing very well. It is April 27, 2026, it is noon at the time I am recording this video, and I am offering you a detailed analysis of Bitcoin, and the crypto market in general, to see where we stand. And I will give you my point of view on the market, my position. Am I currently rather bullish, rather bearish, and so on? Since, well, you know, I am a proponent of transparency. Furthermore, for those who are interested, the Medusa website has been completely revamped, and you can now see the track record, so you can observe it right here, which is the public track record, so the performance of the Medusa portfolio compared to the benchmark, which in this case is Bitcoin, with the difference. So, currently, we are doing better than Bitcoin. You know that my strategy is above all a strategy that allows for protection against drops, especially on altcoin-type investments. So you see that since October 28, at a time when Bitcoin was around $115,000, the portfolio has lost 30%. Now, 30%, you might say, and you would be right, since it is indeed an investment that remains volatile. We are still in the cryptocurrency universe, and I have a method that is sometimes quite aggressive. So, the idea is to protect capital. You see that during certain phases, we will protect capital. During others, you see that we take advantage of upward phases, and so on. The idea is therefore to guarantee, well, you know we cannot guarantee, but the idea is to offer a performance that is superior to Bitcoin while trying to minimize drawdowns and have a performance during downward phases that is better than that of Bitcoin. So, you see, it is completely transparent. You have a website that has been completely revamped. You have the possibility to look inside at what there is, but we have implemented quite a few things, and it is still ongoing. There are quite a few things that will be coming to Medusa. So, stay tuned. And for those who wish, you have the possibility to join the newsletter. So, at the very bottom of the site, you can contact us via Telegram by clicking on this link. And for those who wish, you can join the free newsletter. So, I will continue the analysis, and I will especially start it. Bitcoin is at $77,900, and we are currently in the process of retesting the large $80,000 zone. This is not insignificant, since there is a very important liquidation zone located right here. You see this line at the level of $79,750 to $80,000, and so on, which corresponds to a zone that is obviously sought after by the market. It is a counter-trend. We have a lot of sell orders. We see it from the whales, I will show you right here, but we have whales who, at the $80,000 level, have placed over $30 million in sell orders. Now, you might say $30 million is nothing, and you would be right. These are obviously iceberg orders. So, when you place an order for 13 million on an exchange, it is generally because you have more than that to execute, but you do not want to show 200 million or 500 million or 4 billion on the exchange. So, you create an iceberg order, which means that it will execute batches, so lots of orders that are executed. A first batch of, you see, $13.7 million. Once the order is completely filled, the exchange automatically places another order of $13.7 million, and so on, and so on, and so on, until the entire position that the person, the institution, etc., wishes to execute has been executed. In this case, if you want to execute, for example, a sell position of $137 million, you will prepare 10 batches that will be executed one after the other. And that is what is called iceberg orders. So, the fact of seeing this large red line positioned for a long time, you see that this order on Binance at $80,000 has been placed for 85 days. So, it has been there for quite some time. And you have, therefore, very likely, that is why Bitcoin's price is struggling to take off, because you see many small orders gravitating around it. So, we have a real big wall above us at the $80,000 level, but we also have many small orders that are being executed and that are taking profits, that are selling a maximum of positions to try, precisely, to continue to contain the price, to take profits before a potential retracement, a potential drop that could occur.
So, I'll take this opportunity to quickly interrupt the video to tell you about our partner Bitunix. The exclusive partner of the Medusa channel, which hosts our famous algorithmic strategy, which is executed automatically, as its name suggests. It is a platform that I find very relevant because it is very liquid, especially on the main pairs, whether it's Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, the main pairs. It is a non-KYC exchange. So, really, I use it personally for my investments, whether on spot or futures. They have also integrated futures on certain NASDAQ-listed companies. So, very interesting. If you are interested, do not hesitate. You have all the links in the description to join Bitunix, and you have the possibility to get my free technical analysis training directly for all those who open an account through my partner link. So, do not hesitate at all. Alright, back to the video. So, obviously, having said that, the question arises: is this a local top like we had at $98,000, with potentially a 30% drop that could follow? Well, I say 30%, but actually it was more like, I don't remember, 40-50%. Yes, a 40% drop. Will we have these 40% drops again, and potentially go to $50,000, which corresponds to a floor level for liquidations, but also for, for example, the cost basis of long-term Bitcoin investors. Will we go there directly in a straight line, as we did at the end of January 2026, or is it simply a retracement, like when we went from $76,000 to $65,000? Well, unfortunately, taking bets on that is really gambling, because currently, what we can know is that there is a slowdown. We see it on the RSI. For example, if I show you an RSI on 4 hours, well, you see that it is quite obvious. You see rising highs on the price and descending highs on the RSI. There are obvious fragilities on the RSI. And so, we have a mixed sentiment about the continuation of the upward trend, where we say, the more time passes, the more we have trouble finding buyers, the more the momentum is bearish, and therefore, the more we have a significant probability of a retracement. But the problem is that it is precisely after this retracement that we will be able to determine whether we are in a medium to long-term bearish recovery phase, let's say, or whether we are in a consolidation phase before a bullish recovery. Why? Because if we have a scenario like this one or a scenario like this one, what will change is the behavior at that moment. It is not predictable when we are between $78,000 and $80,000. It will be predictable when we have started our decline. During our decline, do we see the Fear and Greed Index rising? During our descent, do we see funding rates rising? That is what we will try to look at, because if we have a behavior like this, what does it mean? It means that investors in the market are in a "buy the dip" sentiment. They feel that the drop is an opportunity to reposition themselves before an upward movement. And you know, the masses are always wrong. In financial markets, we have 83-87%, depending on the studies, but over 80% of investors in financial markets lose money. So, obviously, that always means the same thing. It means that to earn, you must be part of the 17%, the 15%, the 20% who will be the most successful, who will be the best informed, the most aware, and who will indeed play as little as possible with their emotions. And this is what will be paramount to observe when we are at the bottom here, around $65,000 to $70,000, because my primary scenario, my preferred scenario, remains that this is the beginning of a retracement, and it is at that moment that everything will be decided. If we are at a point where funding rates are very low, and sentiment is returning, you see on X, you see many people talking about a return to $55,000. You see position closures on the retail side. For example, if we look here at our friend CryptoQuant, let's try to look at, for example, the Coinbase premium. The Coinbase premium is the price difference if you buy Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to if you bought it on another exchange, and you might say, it's surprising that there are price differences. Yes, all exchanges vary their prices based on supply and demand, as always. And so, if there is a lot of demand, a lot of people buying Bitcoin on Coinbase, then the purchase price on Coinbase will be higher than on an exchange where there are not many purchases. And why is it interesting to follow this kind of information? Because the people on small, obscure exchanges and the people on Coinbase do not have the same profiles. When you are a bit of a geek, you don't necessarily have a large fortune, but you want to optimize fees, you want to optimize execution, and so on, you will tend to look for exchanges that are not Coinbase, that are not Kraken, that are not the big, well-institutionalized exchanges that have very high fees but also very high security. You tell yourself, "What I want is to optimize my performance." So, you will go more towards smaller exchanges, and so on. Retail is the same. When they buy Bitcoin for the first time, they will say, "I'm most afraid of being scammed. So, I'll go to platforms that advertise on TV, that advertise on social networks, and so I'll go to Coinbase or Kraken or Binance." So, what you see here is precisely the behavior of small portfolios most of the time. And you see that small portfolios currently have a high Coinbase premium, which means there is a lot of demand from small portfolios. Small portfolios are currently buyers. And this is a risk. This is a risk for the market because it shows us a clear indication that small portfolios are buying at a time when, as we will see right here, whales are selling. This is even more striking on this indicator, the Whale versus Retail Delta. So, when we are in the red, it means that whales are selling relative to small portfolios. And when we are in the green, it is when whales are buying. Let's zoom out a bit to try to look at past behaviors. You see that when we reached the bottom here at $60,000, the whale delta was very high. What did that tell us? It told us that whales, little by little, during the decline, decided to open positions. You see that it was done sequentially. When we had troughs, they bought, and as soon as we had a small peak, boom, they sold. Then they bought when there was a trough and, oops, they sold on the rebound. And when we reached our selling climax, we had a lot of buying from whales, a lot of long positions at a time when retail was doing what exactly? The opposite. They capitulated, they sold at the worst moment at $60,000. And what happened? A rise to $70,000. And there, what did the whales do? They massively sold their positions. So, you see that these are quite dynamic whales, since these are whales positioned on derivatives contracts. That's what we're looking at on this indicator. And you see that currently, what are they doing? Currently, they are selling. Currently, they are shorting. They estimate, therefore, that the market has reached a local top. In any case, for the moment, at $80,000, it does not prevent you from seeing that when we returned to $77,000, some whales took positions. Now, it was not comparable to the positions they took when we were at $60,000, but they took buying positions compared to small portfolios. And so, this is what we will observe, what I told you in a few days when we are at $70,000, if we get there. This is my preferred scenario, but it is not the only scenario that exists. It is one of the scenarios, and in my opinion, the one with the highest probability of occurring in the current state of affairs. And we will unfold the rest of the analysis so that you can understand my reasoning. But the idea will really be to observe at that moment what the whales are doing, what the small portfolios are doing, what the different cohorts are doing, and what the state of our favorite indicators is. And if at that moment we estimate that there is too much probability of a bearish continuation, then we will not re-enter, or we will adjust the portfolio, we will take profits, we will adjust at that moment. If, on the other hand, we are in a bullish recovery, then potentially here we will decide to take buying positions again, and so on. We will modulate, for example, the portion of our portfolio that is exposed long-term to Bitcoin or altcoins, or exposed to our algorithmic trading strategy, which precisely benefits from these phases of significant volatility. So, this is precisely good risk management, which is paramount in the crypto universe, and if you don't do it, you are doomed to enter too late, enter too early, exit too late, exit too early. In short, the important thing is risk management. We enter in stages, we exit in stages. It's as simple as that. The interest, of course, is to follow the right indicators to be able to know at each stage whether it is better to enter, to exit, to lighten up, and so on. You see, I started to show you earlier in the video, but funding rates have been bearish for a long time. We see this even more here on Alfractal. I will show you this on Alfractal, we see it very well. We have had low funding rates for a very long time, specifically since April 10th. So, it had been 15 days that funding rates were bearish. Bearish funding rates, as you know, means that there are more sellers than buyers on derivatives contracts, and this has fueled this famous rise, this famous step-by-step rise that I have talked about a lot with our private investment circle. We talked about it a lot because, you see, I explained that as long as we are in this scenario, in this configuration, we should expect a bullish recovery. And so, we were able to benefit, in particular, from trades on the algorithmic strategy that were able to take advantage of this bullish volatility to benefit from this rise in Bitcoin's price. Unfortunately, for the past 2 days, the sentiment has reversed. It's here, the sentiment has changed. Investors, particularly retail investors, traders, and so on, who were bearish for a very long time, have started to change their minds. Well, finally, it's true that I've been liquidated 3 or 4 times. I'll change my mind. I'll say, "Well, maybe we're at a point where we're maybe in a bullish recovery, we'll maybe go for $80,000 to $85,000, and so on." We see it anyway on Poly Market, which predicts with 70% probability that by April 30th, we will have surpassed the $80,000 mark. Now, I don't know if that will happen, but what I observe is a change in behavior. Three weeks ago, the probability of reaching $80,000 on Bitcoin was around 30-35%. Today, it's 70% with 3 days to go. So, that means one thing. It means that confidence is starting to win over the market. And this is also reflected in the Fear and Greed Index, which has risen significantly. We see it, we see small points of neutrality practically in the green starting to appear. We are in yellow, in the neutral zone between 46 and 54 on the Fear Index, since we are at 47 currently. And when we zoom in a bit, we see that unfortunately, the Fear and Greed Index always rises at the worst moments. This is what we had at our local top of $98,000, where we went back to a Fear and Greed Index of 48%. And we reached 46 on our previous peak at $79,400 when we were, therefore, on April 23rd, 22nd, 23rd. And you see that we are back at 47 again. This worries me, of course, and it reinforces the thesis of my retracement scenario, because unfortunately, as always, retail investors enter a bit late after a 20% rise. We are talking about a 20% rise from our local bottom of $65,000 on March 29th to $79,500, which was reached on April 22nd. So, in the space of 3 weeks, a month, we have had a 22% rise in Bitcoin's price. And obviously, it is at this moment that the majority of small portfolios, which have seen this rise while their portfolios were under-exposed, or even exposed to the downside, and who panicked, who panicked. And so, the risk is to trap a lot of people at these levels between $75,000 and $80,000 to have a retracement and fuel this decline with precisely all these selling liquidations that we observe on Alfractal right here. You see it on Alfractal, we have a significant net buyer. We have 37-38 billion. Yes, that's it. No, 36.5 billion, 36.5 billion difference between sell positions and buy positions. Unfortunately, this is starting to become worrying because you see that there are many positions to be liquidated downwards, and the market risks feeding on it. We have a large cluster at $72,000, we have a large cluster at $70,000, we still have a large cluster. Now, if I zoom out, we will see it on CoinGlass, for example, but we have a large cluster here at $62,000. And obviously, this famous large cluster, which, as you can see as we move forward, we have a very significant cluster between $52,000 and $57,000 in liquidations. So, I am not playing the doomsayer by telling you that we will necessarily go back to these zones of $54,000, etc. I am not playing the perma-bull at all. I do not deny that we have significant liquidations between $80,000 and $85,000. The market can go and recover them. And that is why this is risk management. Risk management is knowing that there are several scenarios and that, depending on the scenarios, you must assign probabilities to expose your portfolio in the most rational way possible. You must not deny either scenario. If you are bullish and you are sure that we will reach $85,000, then you can always expose yourself, expose your portfolio accordingly, but you must absolutely keep in mind that the opposite scenario can occur. And that is why we observe many indicators, to be able to best weigh one or the other of the scenarios.
So, what makes me say that currently, we are rather in a bearish recovery scenario is, first of all, the fact that we have very significant liquidations downwards. I mean, we have a lot of liquidations below us, which are linked to the fact that there has been an excess of buying positions. And we observe this very easily through the open interest. The open interest has increased relatively significantly. So, let's try to switch to 4-hour to get a slightly longer-term view. But look at this open interest, it has risen sharply. Now, it has risen sharply in a context where funding rates have fallen sharply. This is what has fueled this bullish rally of a 22% rise, it must be noted. But what we have observed for a short time now is a significant increase in CVD perp on derivatives contracts, while CVD spot is stable. Now, if I have spoken completely in Chinese, know that in our investment circle, when you join us, you have access to free training in technical analysis that allows you to understand all these terms and understand the subtleties of this analysis. This is obviously something that must be understood to be able to invest and, as I told you, to be part of the 15% or 20% of investors who make money in financial markets, compared to the other 80% who do not understand this but who therefore lose on derivatives contracts. Knowing that many people understand this and still lose. So, it is not a sufficient condition, but it is a necessary condition in my opinion. What we observe here is an increase in CVD Perp. What does this mean? It means traders are buying. The traders with the most aggressive and compulsive behaviors, those who click buy, buy, buy, who add leverage, who add positions, what are they doing? They are buying. What are the people who actually click buy to hold Bitcoin on spot markets, who really go to Binance Spot, exchange their USDT for Bitcoin, and store it in their portfolios saying, "I'm waiting for it to go up," doing? Well, these people, you see, they are doing nothing. They are not buying, they are not selling. No position taken. Here, what we observe is that for a long time, we had an increase in open interest which, as you can see, happened in waves. And during these waves, we had funding rates that decreased. Why? Because for a long time, we have brought in traders who were buyers and sellers, sometimes buyers, sometimes sellers. And so, the peculiarity is that during these past weeks, these last three weeks, we have had a rise that was truly in steps. We go up, we stabilize, a slight correction, very small. We just recover the 0.236 on the Fibonacci retracement, which is not even a Fibonacci level, but anyway, we barely recover the 236 and we make a new extension. And we make a new extension each time. So, what do we do? Buyer traders and seller traders enter, except that we only liquidate the seller traders who remain on board. You know the song, well, only the buyers remain. And so now, we have very significant buyer liquidations below the price. And unfortunately, this is a goldmine for market makers, exchanges, arbitrage firms, large portfolios who see the possibility of liquidating all these people and buying back at a good price. So, unfortunately, this further increases the probability of the bearish scenario. So, this is a bit technical, I know, but you need to understand it to be able to be an informed player in this Bitcoin market. Obviously, if you need to be accompanied, if you need pedagogy on these subjects, 30 minutes on YouTube every week or every two weeks is a bit complicated for me, but know that I do three briefs per week that last between 45 minutes and 1 hour in the private community. I answer the community's questions, and so on. So, in this investment circle, you have all the pedagogy related to all these analyses. So, do not hesitate if you are interested. I would be delighted to welcome you there. Note that there are big new things coming next week for the investment circle. I will tell you more about it later in the video, probably in a dedicated video. So, regarding the Fear Index, I told you, the Google Trend is still at its lowest. When we look at searches for the term "crypto," we are still at the lowest. What does this mean? No interest. Investors who are not in crypto are not searching for the term crypto. It does not interest them at all. It's like when we had, for example, the term "silver" when there was the silver buying bubble on the financial markets. It's obviously bugging, but let's try to see what the term "silver" told us. Well, you see that there was a very significant hype, and the hype has subsided, and it is entirely possible that in a while, we will find ourselves in the same situation as crypto, where there was a significant hype back in August 2025, and then a significant drop with no more interest, no more investors, and so on. And in that case, well, we find ourselves exactly like for Silver right now. We find ourselves in a situation where there is no trend recovery because there are no buyers. So, I hope this is clear for you. Regarding macroeconomics, we have a meeting of the US Federal Reserve that will take place on April 29, 2026, Wednesday. 100% probability of no rate cut. Do not be fooled by videos that headline "Attention, what will happen for this FOMC?" Everyone is unanimous, 100% probability of no rate cut. The result is clear. Furthermore, our friend Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, is leaving his post this quarter of 2026 and is being replaced by Kevin Warsh. So, obviously, he, who is generally quite cautious, will not produce an FOMC report that will completely break the market on the eve of the replacement of his chairmanship. So, we expect, obviously, that for Jerome Powell's last meeting or Kevin Warsh's first, there will be a continuation of past policy and stabilization to avoid causing the market to overreact. You see that the market is betting on the fact that we will probably have no rate cuts in either 2026 or 2027. Now, we have a one in four chance of a rate cut by 2026. We will see what happens. But as long as inflation remains quite high, you see 1.8% annualized, it is likely to be quite complicated. Regarding the macroeconomic events of this week, we have the FOMC meeting, so the decision on interest rates by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday. No surprises, we are not expecting much until Wednesday. Therefore, probably not much volatility until then. On Thursday, however, we will have interesting information, whether it's the US Q1 GDP. So, that will be quite important. We are expecting GDP to rise to 2.2%, which is quite significant. So, we will see if investors and the consensus are wrong or not. This could generate volatility. Furthermore, at 2:30 PM, we will also have the PCE core, so the famous consumer price index that the US Federal Reserve monitors to know if inflation is contained or too high. Is inflation too high? I need to raise rates. Is there a risk of disinflation and I lower rates? Is there stabilization, and in that case, we are very good? Well, that is what will be announced on Thursday at 2:30 PM French time. So, that's a bit about macroeconomics. Regarding liquidations, I told you, we have liquidations above us, but we still have something that is announced by the market. You see this large liquidation line at $80,000. We stopped just before, even though there was every interest in recovering it. You have exchanges, etc., that feed on these liquidations through trading fees, commissions, etc., with one desire: that this line be broken. Second attempt, a few days later, you see that 5 days later, from April 22nd to 27th, we make another attempt. We stop precisely at the same level, we do not manage to hit the famous $79,800. Well, the message is quite clear. The message is clear. There is selling pressure. There is significant bearish pressure. This will also encourage people to short the market. I do not deny that. We are on a double top structure most of the time. Double top structures. Let's try to clean up my chart. Double top structures tend to be retested. I agree with you. From a technical point of view, there is liquidity being created just above these double tops. So, potentially, normally what we have is something like this. And then, we go down, the famous UTAD in the Wyckoff strategy. It is entirely possible that we have something like this. That is why this scenario remains probable in my opinion. Nevertheless, the fact that twice in a row we have hit these levels without managing to reach them, honestly, for me, it increases the probability that we will not necessarily go and recover this $79,500 level. Especially since, well, you see, at the time, whether it was April 27th, so tonight, or April 22nd, there was already a lot of money to be recovered. It's not like there wasn't a lot of money. We created this double top to encourage investors to short and then liquidate them. Here, you see that we had the double top, we had a lot of liquidity, we had every opportunity to recover it. We are talking about 2.8 billion positions just between $79,500 and $79,900. So, there was every interest in recovering them. We did not. So, for me, it is quite problematic.
So, I will stop there for this video. I hope you enjoyed it. For all those who wish to learn more about our investment circle, who wish to communicate with us, do not hesitate at all. You have every opportunity to do so. You also have the possibility to communicate with us here via the little chat that you can contact here if you have questions, etc. We have a chatbot that can answer you. So, do not hesitate at all. So, I wish you a good week, and we will meet again one of these days for a YouTube video. I cannot tell you when for the public. And I hope we will meet again within the investment circle. See you later. M.