Transcription
Trump, you know, he poked the hornet's nest. Therefore, this will be recorded in world history. Trump, this time, made a mistake.
The people who will be most unhappy right now are all Americans, all over the world. It's clear that the problem with this program is caused by Trump. The one who cannot solve anything is Trump. Even America cannot help itself; it cannot even defend itself.
When any country controls a certain point, and it turns out to be a point that gives them power over other countries, they will not back down. They will not release their grip on that point that gives them special power, without any pressure, without any event that necessitates them to retreat. In conclusion, the chance of them willingly letting go is zero.
If a war breaks out, America is at a disadvantage because many people have calculated that what can be done seriously is, don't forget the Strait of Hormuz, as I mentioned earlier, the coast of Iran is flat, but just a little further beyond that, there are high mountains. Therefore, the only way they can take it is by sending in troops. If troops are sent in, there is a high risk of casualties. Americans say that if it becomes necessary to come and cause soldiers to die, politically, I think Trump will find it difficult to proceed.
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Yes, professor, but during the period when they controlled the Strait of Hormuz, it was the beginning of the war, and there was still fighting. But now the war has ended, and everything is moving towards peace negotiations and the lifting of sanctions. Iran still has sufficient reason to control this area.
Simply put, what is happening now, in terms of the Iranian people, the government has retreated and let go of the Strait of Hormuz. The people will not accept it because it is now in their hands. There is a professor at an American university. Professor P.
He said he studied history, going back to the Roman era. He said that when any country controls a certain point, and it turns out to be a point that gives them power over other countries.
Yes.
He said he has never seen that country back down, release its grip on that point that gives it special power, without any pressure, without any event that necessitates them to retreat. In conclusion, the chance of them willingly letting go is zero.
Yes, but on the other hand, it could become a trigger for dissatisfaction among Arab countries, or it could become a new point of conflict, professor? Because if it's a point of interest, it could lead to clashes, or at least it could lead to more volatility in oil prices and energy transportation, and more uncertainty.
Of course, it will cause stress. And the people who will be most unhappy right now are all Americans. Trump, you know, because this program, he poked the hornet's nest and made everyone, all over the world, see clearly that this program's problem is caused by Trump. And the one who cannot solve anything is Trump. Therefore, this will be recorded in history, world history, American history, that Trump, this time, made a mistake.
He is trying to find a way to solve it, but he cannot. Therefore, after the midterm elections pass, they might try again, to find ways to pressure them through this method or that method. There might be some clashes again, to see if Iran will let go. As for the Arab countries, those who are inside and are affected by Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz, there is no way they can object or protest, because these Arab countries are richer than Iran. They have become rich from exporting water and gas. Because Iran has been blocked from integrating with the global economy, hasn't it? It has been sanctioned for over 40 years. These countries have become richer and richer, while Iran has become poorer and poorer. And they have been living together like this. Now, this time, Iran has become powerful in terms of weaponry, to the extent that even America cannot help itself, cannot defend itself. The American military bases, within the first week, the radar systems, each of which cost about a billion dollars to invest in, and they are networked radar systems that can detect missiles fired from Iran, at this speed, and where they will land, and be destroyed. All of them. This shows that Iran has a very high potential to send missiles into nearby areas. Its potential is very high. And they have abandoned using American GPS satellite navigation and switched to China's system. It turns out that there is no signal jamming, no interference, and the accuracy is much higher. This is why the Middle Eastern countries, the Arab countries, I think they understand today that America cannot help them. And they are alone, and they have to fight Iran head-on. They cannot win. And don't forget that the main assets of the Arab countries are located, you can see easily from satellites. They can send missiles with very accurate satellite coordinates. Whether it's oil pipelines, oil refineries, gas plants, airports, or anything located in the desert.
In conclusion, looking at it this way, and don't forget, these countries' weakness is their freshwater refineries. Without freshwater, within 3 days, it will be a wasteland. Therefore, going there to negotiate or cause trouble with Iran, Iran must understand that Iran has suffered a lot of damage. And right now, they have received promises from the United States that they might get back their frozen assets. I don't think it's easy. The United States will play some games. But the chance of getting the money, which is said to be investment money, 300 billion dollars, that will come, I think there will be many conditions. It won't come easily. At the same time, telling the United States to pay war reparations, the United States considers itself not defeated and refuses to pay. Therefore, there is only one way for Iran, which is revenue from oil exports and from collecting money through this channel. They will never let go.
Yes, but before that, Mr. Trump said that there might be military operations in the Strait of Hormuz if Iran does not comply with the MOU. He might invade and seize the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, the MOU is in place, and it's true, but could this be used as an excuse? Or at least, does America still have this in mind, that one day, they will open hostilities to seize the Strait of Hormuz?
If a war breaks out, America is at a disadvantage because many people have calculated that what can be done seriously is, don't forget the Strait of Hormuz, as I mentioned earlier, the coast of Iran is flat, but just a little further beyond that, there are high mountains. A little further in, there are high mountains. This allows Iran's drone bases or other bases to hide in caves and other places. This makes it difficult for bombing from aircraft to reach them. Therefore, the only way they can take it is by sending in troops. If troops are sent in, there is a high risk of casualties. And think about it, when troops are sent in, they have to go to the port area. The path from the port to the inside will be difficult. And at the same time, if American soldiers go in and gather in any area, the more they gather, the more dangerous it is to send in drones. This is why, originally, I guessed that one day, Trump would try to attack the island of Kharg, which is an island that is a refueling and oil loading point for Iran. In the end, he didn't dare to attack because I think the military would have told him that if they attacked, many would die. If many die, in America, especially if it's the start of a war, and America hasn't been attacked at all, but they claim that Iran is developing nuclear weapons and one day they will reach America, which is, oh my, that's decades away. This is why Americans say that if it becomes necessary to come and cause soldiers to die, politically, I think Trump will find it difficult to proceed. But they might try other methods of warfare, which I guess will happen after the midterm elections, around the end of the year. We'll see what they do.
Yes, that's interesting, professor. So, if the political pressure on Trump passes, and the midterm elections pass, the situation in the Middle East might become tense again? I guess so, because it's like they're still resentful. The recording of history has caused them a lot of damage.
Yes. What about the impact on the world, professor? If we assume that Iran shows its power to control the Strait of Hormuz, does that mean the world will continue to be in a position of paying increased costs? In another sense, it means being a hostage forever for anyone who uses the oil transport route or the goods transport route through this strait or point. What will be the impact on the world, professor, regarding oil prices, shipping costs, or the cost of goods?
For this reason, as time goes by, Iran, I guess they will have to manage it with a short-term, long-term approach.
They cannot pressure too much. They cannot charge service fees that are too high. It must be at an acceptable level. For example, now, for the largest oil tankers, it feels like they charge 2 million dollars per tanker. This translates to only about 1 dollar per barrel of oil, which is not much. Therefore, if they manage it well, and try to balance short-term and long-term, with control, and everything is just right, and everyone can accept it, then the world will probably tolerate it, tolerate and accept it.
Yes, but we saw during the news that oil prices rebounded by about 2%. It's not a large rate, but it seems ready to rise in response to news of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. So, professor, how do you see the future direction of global energy? Can we be assured that the oil crisis will end once the war ends? Oil prices had fallen before the war, but after seeing the attack on Hormuz, we are no longer sure.
I think they attacked to deter, to show that if they proceed, they want ships to pass their red line. If ships do that, and they are the ones who determine how many can pass per day, and how, then it won't cause prices to jump suddenly. It's just that prices might remain at a level higher than before the war.
Yes.
But right now, in the short term, because there is oil floating, meaning ships are full of oil and have been docked for 3 months. And now that Iran has opened, ships are gradually coming out. This is putting pressure on global oil prices to fall slightly. I think this will help for a while. After some time, it will return to a level that is profitable for production in many countries. Otherwise, if it's too low, investment in new exploration will be less. Therefore, if we consider that the world needs oil, there must be prices that are profitable for new exploration and investment. Besides this, I guess Iran will also try to, if there is a brand, a price, they will try to maintain the price at a level that the market can accept, rather than a low level. Because in Iran's case, selling less and getting more money is more convenient and better. And by doing this, Russia will be even happier.
Yes. So, there might be an incentive to keep oil prices at a level that is not too low, right? But not too high for customers to afford.
Exactly, exactly. But during this period, I think when it goes down, it will go down excessively. They call it overshoot, both on the downside and on the upside. It might overshoot until it stabilizes, and we don't know when that will be.
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