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Welcome, viewers, to Teen. In this year 2026, opportunities for investors worldwide arise amidst the battlefield of World War III. This is a war we might not see with large-scale troop movements, but rather a new form of warfare that will impact global assets. Where do opportunities lie if we are to seize them to grow our investment portfolios and ensure our survival? Today, we are honored to have with us Professor Thaweesuk. We must thank the professor for gracing us with his presence today. Professor, hello. >> Hello. >> Yes, Professor, we are currently in the midst of World War III, aren't we? How different is it from the past, from the first and second world wars? >> Well, in terms of its genesis, it's not very different. However, the form of warfare is quite different, quite significantly so. >> This time, we won't see large-scale troop movements, but rather the formation of conflicts. We are in a period of formation, of creating conflict. And we will have two to three points of war on this planet. And at this very moment, the whole world is watching the major battlefield directly between the United States and Iran. This is a juncture where we see in the present era, where the severity might be greater due to the significant difference in warfare capabilities compared to the past. And the technology of warfare is quite different. But what is the same is that currently, there is a state of economic, financial, and banking crisis. If we know world history, from another perspective, we are not saying that World War I was caused by the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, but from another perspective, Mr. Thanawat, is that before World War I, there was a banking system shutdown for about 6 months, and a trading system shutdown in the stock markets of both Europe and America. The reason was that banks in Europe, whether in England, France, or Germany, had lent to the Ottoman Empire and the Russian Empire, and there was a default on those bond loans. This caused a ripple effect, impacting the banking crises in England, France, and Germany, who were the lenders. >> Therefore, the bankers designed it to create a larger conflict to transfer risk from the banks to the people of each country. >> Yes, and this time, did the origin of the war also stem from the banking sector? >> This time, it stems from two things: the banking sector and the rise of new technologies. It's currently a competition, what do you call it, a horse race, where it's a photo finish to see who will overtake in this period. And if we look at the big picture analysis, we will see that this year will be the starting point of entering a new industrial era. And entering a new industry is a starting point that is interesting. You see, the United States and China will go their separate ways. >> Yes. >> They will go in different directions in terms of technology, which we will discuss in more detail later. >> Yes, in fact, apart from trade wars, tariff wars, and power grabs, what other origins or weapons will they use for future battles that are concerning? >> In terms of using violence, and unseen things like infiltrating various countries around the world, and causing economic crises globally. Most countries want their currency to weaken, but we have seen that in the past 2-3 years, there has been a phenomenon of dollar depreciation. >> Yes, but if we compare the dollar with the baht and various currencies, we will see that the dollar has clearly weakened, and it has weakened even more severely when compared to the price of gold and some commodities like silver or platinum. >> Yes, and will the opportunity to weaken continue, or will we see a reversal from the United States? >> It can happen in both ways. One is that they become a new superpower again. >> That means they have to win the war with Iran. They will be able to re-establish their strength, and the rejection of the dollar from elsewhere will decrease. First, they must overcome or manage this economic crisis. This is not an easy round at this moment. >> Yes, in your opinion, between fighting Iran and resolving the US economic problems, which should be the priority? >> It's a matter of solving both simultaneously. Because currently, the problems within America's own banking system are clearly showing its vulnerabilities, right from the beginning of the year. Initially, I thought it would happen around the second or third quarter, but it started to appear right at the beginning of the year. >> Therefore, it will be a catalyst for Mr. Trump to do something to regain his position as the number one superpower. And that includes strengthening his power in terms of warfare. >> Yes, the problems in the US banking industry are starting to appear, but are they at a point where they could erupt into a major, widespread problem? >> I think the scale of damage is quite high. Currently, there are two underlying factors behind the problems in the US banking system. First is the US Treasury bonds that banks hold. Normally, when we deposit money in a bank, the bank doesn't know what to do with it, so it invests in government bonds, which are considered the safest. However, with the interest rate hikes, which were surprising in the last hikes, it took only 18 months to raise interest rates from 0.25% to 5.25%. This is a very short period. And as we discussed last time, I believe the Federal Reserve might have to lower interest rates at least twice, but they missed the third reduction. What happened when they missed the third reduction? The bond market did not respond. And this lack of response indicates the real problem: the Federal Reserve might not be able to control interest rates, similar to Japan. Currently, the mistake in Japan is that they are controlling interest rates for the BOJ to follow. >> And what will happen will affect the economic growth rate of the United States, and Mr. Trump will have to deal with it in multiple dimensions, right? >> Yes, the dimensions occurring at this moment are much more complex. And the problems will be severe in the second and third quarters from now. We saw that at the end of last week, at the end of January, when the Chicago It Bank and Trust went bankrupt. Although it was a small bank, the damage was only over 260 million. >> But it already reflects one thing: that the Regional Bank system still has bigger problems waiting. As we discussed earlier, I thought it would happen around the second or third quarter, but now it's happening faster than that, it's surfacing. And besides US Treasury bonds being a problem, there's another thing that smaller banks hold: real estate loans. That is, commercial real estate. They lend for building offices, malls, shopping malls. It turns out that these loans amount to approximately 1.88 trillion. And the banks that are Regional Banks, meaning the smaller banks owned by each state, have lent about 70% of this 1.88 trillion. >> Yes. >> So, we can see the scale. It's almost 10 times larger than the subprime crisis. At that time, it was only tens of billions, and it caused widespread damage of over 800,000 million. But now, it's about 70% of 1.88 trillion. Currently, this is why I believe this year will be problematic. During COVID, loans were issued at interest rates of 2%, 2.5-3%, for 5 years. And this year is the year of what is called a "rollover war," a large rollover. The benchmark interest rate in the market, or MBS interest rates, have risen to over 6%. Therefore, these have the potential to adjust interest rates up to about 7-8%. This could be a big bomb. But what is even more complex is that the real estate they borrowed for, let's say they borrowed 100 million. It turns out that the rental income has decreased by about 40-60%. On average, it's half. Therefore, the value of the asset has decreased. And the problem is that the 100 million cannot be rolled over at a value of 100 million. It must be rolled over at half the value, which is 50 million. Where will they get the 50 million to supplement it? The bank's risk is about 20% of 100 million. But there's a connection: the 30% that we invest as equity. For example, if viewers borrow from a bank to do a project, you viewers must invest 30% of your own money and borrow 70% from the bank. Therefore, if it drops by 50%, the bank risks about 20 out of 100. But the other 30% that we invest as equity, in America, they do this: they borrow from private credit funds. >> Yes. >> From private credit funds from BlackRock, they borrow and use it as collateral, meaning they use it as equity, and then borrow from the bank again. If the value drops by 50%, the money borrowed from private credit will become zero immediately and will not be recovered. This connects to private credit funds, which are long-term funds. They are held by state funds, foundation funds, pension funds, insurance company funds. They allocate a portion of their portfolio to lend to private credit funds, which we call high-risk lending. >> Yes, that too. >> So, if this time bomb explodes, the damage to the economy will be much more severe than in the past, right? >> The damage will be here: it will be in the small banks, the state banks, of which there are about 1,488 facing problems. >> But the severely ill ones are about nearly 600. And there will be events like last Friday, the 30th, where they suddenly declared bankruptcy. Now, there's a problem that the FDIC will guarantee deposits up to $250,000, right? >> Yes. >> The problem is that the FDIC's fund is only about 0.5% of the estimated initial damage. >> Which is less. >> Which is less. >> Yes. >> But okay, let's not panic. We can assume that the Fed might >> supplement it. >> Supplement it. This is a positive outlook if they want to prevent the system from having problems. So, if the new Fed governor is hawkish, we might say they might use decisive problem-solving measures. We have to wait and see what happens in the future. But the problem hidden in the events of last weekend, the bank failures, which are similar to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank in 2023, where is the problem? Mobile phones. >> Yes, how? >> Normally, people rush to withdraw money, right? You see them queuing up. But now, everyone transfers money via mobile banking. >> Yes. >> And the bank's reserves disappear, causing the bank to >> go bankrupt within 48 hours. That was the event in 2023, which is similar to the event in the past week. So, what we need to be careful about now is the use of mobile banking and the rush to withdraw money, the rush to transfer money out of Regional Banks to JP Morgan, to Gensax, or to Money Market Funds. This is something that banks are very concerned about right now, whether money will flow out. Because currently, as of Friday the 30th, money has flowed out of the deposit system of Regional Banks by about 43%. The Fed must find a way to manage this, otherwise, it will collapse like dominoes. >> Yes, the events that occurred on January 30, 2069. >> Yes, in fact, if there is panic, sometimes it can spread beyond control and exceed the actual situation. >> Yes. >> Yes, it will be a panic that might spread to other regions around the world as well, right? >> Well, currently, it should be contained within American banks. But what will cause it to spread globally is the interbank lending rate in the US, or the old repo rate. >> It might spike. >> Yes. >> Currently, the repo rate, compared to the reference interest rate recently announced by the Fed, has risen higher than the reference interest rate by about 0.5%. This is higher than the market. And the Fed has been trying to inject liquidity into the system since October. They have been injecting liquidity, and the liquidity injected is higher than during the period before the pandemic. Last time, in 2019, liquidity suddenly disappeared from the system, leading to everything ending with the pandemic and a severe stock market crash. At that time, the stock market, bond market, and commodity market all crashed. And the Fed had to increase its balance sheet by trillions of dollars during that time. So, there are already signs that since October, the Fed has been continuously injecting liquidity into the system to prevent this interest rate from jumping up. >> Yes. >> But if this event occurs, and compared to 2008 when panic occurred, this interest rate jumped to about 7%. If it jumps to 7%, it will have a severe impact on US bond yields, and it will have a severe impact on global bond yields immediately. And most importantly, what will be very volatile is the exchange rate. The exchange rate will be quite volatile if anything happens with bank failures this time, compared to 2008. >> Yes, what is the probability of it happening? Can the US control it? >> I think the government is aware of this. But checking the numbers, I think it should have happened around the third quarter. But it's happening in the first month of the year, and in Chicago, which shouldn't happen. So, we don't know if, as Jamie Dimon said, there's one cockroach, and we don't see others. Preliminary analysis suggests there are about 30-40 more banks facing this problem. For example, in American banks, there was a slight manipulation. They should have recorded losses on the government bonds they hold. They thought this was still an unrealized accounting entry. >> Meaning, they expect losses, but there are no accounting effects yet, so the bank doesn't fail. But as soon as there's a rush to withdraw, they have to sell those assets, especially US Treasury bonds, which have very high liquidity. This will cause the bank to realize actual losses. >> When you combine US Treasury bonds with the upcoming rollover war this year, which is a very big year, it leads to failures and rapid takeovers. >> Yes, but the problems in the United States are not just this. There are many other issues. >> Yes, especially the enormous debt. How many ways are there to solve this? >> Currently, the Trump administration is lying to its own people, saying they will impose a trade war by taxing competing countries. But in reality, it's like they are lying to the people because, in the end, the people are the ones paying. For example, on my last trip to America, I happened to dine at a Thai restaurant by chance. >> We talked, and they said the price of food ingredients they import is so high that they can barely make any profit. In the end, these prices have to be adjusted upwards. >> Yes. >> And ultimately, the consumers are the ones who bear the burden. >> Bear the burden. This increased cost. It's simple, like they increased VAT. >> Yes. >> So, consumers of all goods in that country have to pay more VAT. But this is a trade tax. If we buy goods there, we have to pay this increased tax. Mr. Trump is very proud that he collected so much tax this year. But that means the cost of living for Americans has increased. This is another way to solve the problem, but due to the high expenses of the United States, and the very high cost that follows this year is interest. Because the interest payments last year were due to the rollover during the subprime period, where they kept interest rates at 0-0.25% for most of the past year, a total of 9 trillion dollars. >> And the rate at which the Treasury has to pay interest will be much higher this year than in previous years. This has risen to about one-third of the government's annual expenditure. If this year they have to build up again at new interest rates, it will become a problem of increased fiscal burden. And where will they get the taxes to pay for it? So, the problem is that Mr. Trump has to find other solutions. >> Yes, and the solutions to solve the debt will have to extend to war, or might involve other assets in the world? >> I think it will be like World War I and World War II. Because in reality, we think it's about global politics. But the banking system behind governments worldwide wants war to happen. Because >> there is a theory of problem-solving. >> They say that a bigger problem must be created, and the existing problem will become smaller. >> Yes. >> This is one of the theories used in World War I and World War II. >> But if we look at the recent period, since the Russia-Ukraine war, it has reduced the credit of the United States. For example, Russia is not fighting Ukraine; Russia is fighting NATO, with NATO soldiers and weapons from the United States being sent in. We have seen that in the prolonged conflict of about 4 years, Russia has been losing all along. And Russia has demonstrated its weapon capabilities, which are highly efficient in many forms. This has led to a decline in the credit of the United States. And what has caused the credit to decline the most is Iran's attack on Israel. In just 12 days, it caused significant damage to Israel, to the point that the United States had to plead for planes to fly in and drop a bomb, and let's go to war, because if it goes further, Israel would have to use a stronger strategy, which is to launch nuclear bombs at Iran. They don't want it to reach that point. But now, America is using the method of sending a fleet to intimidate. >> Yes. >> The problem is this: if they bring it to intimidate, the problem is not bringing it to intimidate, but what form will it take? >> If they bring it and nothing happens, an agreement is reached, and so on. This time, Iran is the side that does not want any agreement that puts them at a disadvantage. So, what we will see this week is how Mr. Trump will find a way out. >> Yes. >> Because if they retreat further, the global market will spike, and the dollar will weaken because of the event where they are unable to be a superpower by sending a large fleet of warships. If they create an event for the world to see, there are rumors that they contacted them, saying, "Then let's shoot bombs at each other, make an agreement, and stop." >> Yes. >> And Iran has already announced that they will not negotiate this matter. >> Yes. >> This time, we have seen that in their efforts to create internal chaos in Iran earlier this year, there was internal unrest, which we saw was the work of external forces creating chaos there. And Iran has already dealt with it. This has led to the fact that they will not choose to negotiate. >> Yes. >> So, from this perspective, if both sides are happy, it will have no impact on the bond market. But if it's worse, there will be fighting. >> Yes. >> And a submarine sinks, or an aircraft carrier sinks. This is the most expensive insurance in the world. >> This will cause US interest rates to rise sharply immediately, and the dollar will fall. Because once, before World War I, the Russian Empire, which had been great for 300 years, if you consider how great it was, think of the image of America at that time. Losing a war to Japan caused bond prices, bond interest rates, to spike immediately. >> And the currency, the Russian ruble, plummeted severely from losing the war. So, in this model, it will be similar if anything happens to the United States. Therefore, is the only way out to completely destroy Iran? >> Will we see that, Professor? >> Look at this: Palestine, a small area. >> Yes. >> And Israel is one of the top 5 most militarily capable countries in the world. >> It took 2 years, and everything had to start over. >> Yes. >> And Iran's area is almost as large as the United States. >> Yes. >> But if the United States retreats, it will be detrimental in every aspect. >> Yes, to all their assets. >> They have to fight. The biggest enemy of the United States right now is only one thing. >> Yes. >> Time. >> Yes. >> The longer it drags on, the worse it will be for the United States. >> Yes, we will see that the domestic situation is becoming more volatile. Banks are suppressing news, and anything that happens is quickly suppressed. We saw that last Friday, the 30th, was very small news, hardly anyone talked about it. >> But this is news suppression, and the Treasury has to buy bonds in the weekly auctions, and in quite large quantities, because no one wants US Treasury bonds anymore. >> Yes. >> And there will be increasing sales from Japan, China, and many other countries. This situation, time, will make the United States a loser in every dimension. >> Yes, are there any other solutions? Gold, which they have accumulated in large quantities. >> Yes. >> Could it be a way to solve their debt problem? >> There was a case where the White House issued Executive Order 6102. At that time, they announced a gold price adjustment, from about $20.83 per ounce to $35 per ounce. >> Yes. >> The whole world was confused, right? Did they devalue the currency? >> Yes. >> Similar to today, when the price of gold has risen by 5,000 or more, we wonder if gold is expensive, or if the currency has depreciated, or if the currency has depreciated without us realizing it. >> Yes. >> In reality, all currencies in the world are depreciating without us realizing it. And there will be 2-3 more cases to follow. So, in the case of Executive Order 6102, it was a devaluation, but it was talked about in terms of the price of gold. >> Yes. >> The most important weapon for the United States right now is gold, 8,500 tons that they have. >> If they devalue it to $10,000 per ounce, it will serve as collateral for American debt instruments by about 10%. >> Yes. >> But if we consider the White House's thinking at that time, to make the price of gold back the value of debt by 40%, they would have to increase it to $40,000 per ounce. >> Per ounce of gold. >> Yes, $40,000, which is almost 9-10 times higher than now. >> Oh, and how much debt would that cover? >> It would cover about 40% of their debt. >> Yes, but the value of currencies would decrease compared to gold. This would be a big problem because what follows the rise of gold is that commodity prices will increase. We see that gas prices and oil prices have increased considerably in the past few months. And what has increased the most is the price of beef. Fortunately, the price of eggs has decreased. But what follows commodities and consumer food prices is interest rates. >> Yes. >> Today, we see that Japan cannot control interest rates, nor can Europe, and the United States has entered a state where they may not be able to control interest rates. And inflation, which everyone has not had the opportunity to assess, usually when we talk about inflation, it means prices are rising, right? But this inflation will be very bad, meaning inflation from the depreciation of currency. Because last year, the leading factor was the rise in the prices of gold and platinum. >> Yes. >> Platinum and silver are significant indicators that global inflation will be uncontrollable. I always say that the rise in gold should be gradual, meaning better inflation. But now, we see a very steep graph, and it exploded during Friday the 30th, and on Monday morning, it continued to adjust downwards. But on Friday the 30th, there was an event: the case of silver being dumped from around 115. JP Morgan Chase closed its short position in silver at the lowest point. >> What a coincidence. >> What a coincidence, right? They are a major controller of the silver market. >> Yes, and what is hidden in silver futures is that the futures price in the US dropped to about 78, if I remember correctly, 78 dollars per ounce of silver. But the price of silver in the spot market is >> We don't just have the commodity market. Now we have spot futures at around the low 100s, which is a difference of about 30%. This resulted in Monday morning's silver price jumping up to 85. But JP Morgan closed its short position on Friday the 30th. And it closed at the lowest point. This indicates that there is a network involved in speculating on both gold and silver prices. >> That's why the graph is so steep. But the price of gold, the correct price, not the speculative price, should be around $4,500 to $5,000. In Thai baht, I estimate it to be around 68,000 to 73,000 baht. And I pray that it stays sideways for a while. It has risen so strongly that it's tiring. But it is predicted that by the end of the year, the price of gold will approach 100,000. >> 100,000 baht per baht of gold. >> Per baht of gold. >> Which would correspond to about 6,000-7,000 in spot gold, depending on the exchange rate? >> It might be around 6,000-7,000 or so, because the dollar will weaken further, which will strengthen our baht. >> Therefore, the critical point during >> February is whether the United States will go to war with Iran. >> Yes. >> If the price of gold stops, it will adjust downwards first. >> Yes. >> And then adjust upwards again. >> Yes. >> But if America and Iran go all out, the price of gold and oil will surge. Because the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf is a source of oil exports, about one-third of the world's total volume. >> Yes. >> When there is war there, oil exports will disappear. The price of oil might reach $100 per barrel during that time if that event occurs. And this is why Mr. Trump rushed to deal with Venezuela. Because if anything happens in the Middle East, America will have a problem with insufficient oil. The quality of oil in Venezuela is not very good; it produces a lot of tar when refined, but it is necessary to have it. >> Yes. >> What will be the supporting factor for gold to reach 100,000 baht per baht of gold, besides this? >> The depreciation of financial assets, especially US debt instruments. This is the main reason for the events. And then, we have to see if the Fed, the current chairman or a new one, will inject more money into the system. Currently, they are injecting money through financial institutions to prevent interest rates from rising in terms of bank liquidity. But the problem is that after this, will they inject QE? If they inject QE again, it will be different from the previous QE. Because this QE injection will push gold prices up further. >> Yes, so you believe that the sharp correction in gold by $1,000 and gold in Thailand by about 10,000 baht per baht of gold is not the end of the cycle or the end of gold? >> It's due to extreme speculation, very high speculation, and the use of margin and high leverage. When the price of gold or silver is pushed down to the stop-loss point, it causes a cascade. But what is also reflected is the US Dollar Index. If the US Dollar Index falls, the price of gold will rise. So, when the price of gold surged from $4,000 to $5,600, the dollar index fell, and the price of gold rose sharply. But what's strange is that on Friday and Monday, the dollar index did not rise, while the price of gold fell by $1,000. This indicates that this was not due to genuine buying or selling. >> Yes. It was due to forced selling by only certain groups. Therefore, the desire to exchange dollars to make the dollar index rise in the same direction as gold did not result in an increase. So, it's just a normal stop-loss in pushing to the point of forced selling, where there is no liquidity in the system to absorb these assets. This is concerning. But what is concerning is not the price of gold. Because ultimately, spot gold will lead paper gold or the largest gold futures. Currently, spot is leading because there is actual buying. >> But this liquidity will be reflected back in the US Treasury bond market. >> Yes. >> In the second week of January, on Thursday the 2nd, during the auction, there was a trading gap in US Treasury bonds, or a "free time," for about 25 seconds. >> Yes. >> There were no bids or offers to buy in the trade. This has never happened with the most liquid asset in the world. Among all assets, US Treasury bonds are considered highly liquid, and there has never been such "dead air" before. This reflects that the actual liquidity, the state of tightness, is likely increasing. >> Yes, what will happen to US Treasury bonds in the future? And what are the opportunities for investors this year, including in bonds? >> Currently, the United States may have to maintain interest rates, but the bond market itself may have to adjust its yields upwards. But the Fed will lose control. Currently, if we invest in American bonds, or buy Money Market Funds in US dollars, this is not the answer right now. But where is the answer? >> The answer lies in Swiss franc Money Market Funds. >> Yes. >> Because normally, if we compare the dollar with the Swiss franc, they exchange at about 1.1 or 1.2 dollars per Swiss franc. >> Yes. >> Currently, it has risen to 1.3. >> Yes. >> At 1.33, those who convert from Swiss francs back will benefit. And if we compare interest rates, there is a slight difference. But compared to the safe-haven status of currencies, Swiss franc Money Market Funds are still more interesting at this moment. >> In the first quarter of this year? >> Yes, from now until everything is resolved, and we wait for the United States to raise interest rates to a high level. For example, if the banking system experiences problems. >> Yes. >> If severe problems occur, we will see short-term interest rates rise to about 6 or 7%. >> When short-term interest rates rise to 6 or 7%, US bond yields, especially 30-year bonds, will fall sharply. >> Yes. >> Those holding 30-year bonds might lose 30-50%. But that means a 30-50% decrease in interest rates of more than 7%. And if the Fed uses the same method as in 2008, lowering interest rates to 0%, the returns will immediately rebound, potentially yielding 80-150% from the reversal of interest rates due to the Fed's reduction. Whether they will reduce or not, we have to see. But this is from the perspective of speculators who speculate on bond prices. >> Yes, and can individual investors do this at such critical junctures? Or how can Thai investors seek opportunities to profit while facing the risk of ruin? >> It's very easy. Global trading systems can now trade in all markets, and short-term, medium-term, and long-term bonds are all available through ETFs. >> Yes, so you can trade in the US market and other markets. Therefore, investment opportunities are open, unlike during the crises in Greece, Turkey, or Sri Lanka. At that time, it was too small for retail investors to participate. So, now, people worldwide can participate. However, we need to understand the game of bond price movements based on interest rates. And we need to know that when bank runs occur or banks fail, short-term interest rates will spike, causing long-term interest rates to rise, which will lead to a severe decline in bond prices. And at that moment, we can then invest in long-term bonds if the Fed tends to lower interest rates. This will yield higher profits than the stock market. >> Yes. >> We need to read the game clearly and act quickly. >> Yes, yes. If we know the model, we can act on it. >> Yes. Other assets, such as silver, were quite hot last year. What are your thoughts on this year, Professor? >> Silver, I might look at it more from a speculative perspective than gold. Because gold, at one point, after becoming a legal tender, is now classified as a security. So, when there are laws and regulations supporting it, I still give gold a percentage as being like cash, and possibly stronger than cash. Even though we are taught that it is a commodity, the law has changed, and it is now considered a security. Therefore, gold will be like a reserve asset, which silver is not yet. Platinum or white gold are not yet. I still believe they will rise, but with speculation mixed in. >> Yes, but gold itself is an asset that many countries use as reserves rather than dollars, right? Is this another factor that will strengthen gold? >> Yes. Currently, central banks worldwide are continuously selling US Treasury bonds. We should say they are not throwing them away carelessly, but they are selling them and converting them into gold instead. This is what central banks worldwide are doing. And in January, because the price of gold rose, the value of gold as a reserve asset for central banks has surpassed that of US Treasury bonds. >> Yes, therefore, gold will continue to be an investment asset this year. >> It is an asset to hold for the long term, not for speculation. Because anything can happen. I define this year as a year of unpredictability. It is a year where nothing can be predicted. Therefore, speculation will lead to severe losses because we don't know what might suddenly happen in the United States. If a bank run suddenly occurs, there will be changing factors. Or if Iran and America suddenly start shooting, it will surge. But if they suddenly agree to part ways, pack up, finish fishing, and go home, it will fall sharply. Everything can happen unpredictably. Therefore, what we do, I am not recommending this year as a year for speculation, but rather as a year for Asset-Backed Securities. That is, we hold assets to protect against risk. And the best risk protection is gold. But what we see is speculation mixed in. >> Yes, and oil prices have been quiet for a long time. >> Yes. >> Yes, Professor, what are your thoughts on this year, given the geopolitical unrest in various continents? Will it accelerate oil prices, or not? >> This year, there is a risk of oil prices accelerating. But the question is, to what extent? If there is no war in the Middle East, oil prices will likely rise to $60-70. But if there is a war in the Middle East, we will likely see $85-100, because it affects one-third of global production, and there is no immediate substitute. >> Yes. >> So, we will have to wait and see the situation. >> Wait and see. >> But in the past year, 2025, there have been many unexpected events. >> Yes. This year, we have another 11 months to go. We might encounter events that we did not expect or thought unlikely to happen again, right? How can we prepare to seize opportunities in investment or other opportunities in the world? >> We must know about investment assets that I would call "multiglobal assets," meaning we know about all types of assets. And we must know their true value. Therefore, what we are seeing now, let's not see it as an economic crisis, but as a global system transition. >> Yes. We will set different objectives. If this is a global system transition, then the first thing is, who will emerge as the leader of the new global system? >> Yes. Or there will be no single leader, but a collective consensus. This is another perspective, and it will come out differently. Will the old order be surpassed, or will the old order maintain its stability as before? Or will it be a global consensus, meaning everyone has the same opinion, a consensus. Therefore, in this case, it can go in three directions. >> Yes, when it can go in three directions, long-term investment is not the answer in terms of investing in stocks or bonds, because both stocks and bonds have interest rates as a problem. And the rate of non-performing loans in banks in each country worldwide is increasing.
The interest rates are rising, so what we will release. The risk here is that instead of keeping all our money in the bank, and dividing our cash into Money Market Funds, if interest rates rise, Money Market Funds will increase their rates first. This is a Money Market Fund within the country, available from every asset management company or bank. However, banks have to wait for approval for savings deposit interest rates, which don't rise much. But if we put it into these bonds, these Money Market Funds will increase first.
If we want to increase risk slightly, we can put it into a Money Market Fund denominated in Swiss Francs. The risk here is the exchange rate. Currently, the risk is in assets called "Back Security" within the Swiss Franc Money Market Fund. This is another perspective. We don't need to go to the US side because going to the US has risks, as you have experienced over the past two years. We saw that even though we got 5% or 4% returns, the currency depreciated by over 10%, leading to exchange rate losses. This is something we need to understand.
As for investing in stocks, this year is about discussing new industries in the world. We are entering new industries. In old industries, we see they are just zombies; there's no opportunity for growth. Therefore, our old understanding of the stock market and capital market needs to be changed. For example, consider energy companies. Previously, energy could go all out, but now energy is challenged by alternative energy sources, not just oil. It's probably not the answer. So, should we invest in electricity? Electricity isn't the immediate answer either, because oil still plays a part. However, as usage increases, demand will also increase. This is a perspective we need to understand.
So, should we invest in semiconductors? Companies have risen to valuations of trillions of dollars. The world's GDP is only 90 trillion. This has risen to 1, 2, 3, 4 of the world's GDP. Will it go that high again? It's unlikely. It might have high profits, but it won't surpass world GDP, right?
However, there will be new companies emerging that we may not have heard of or known. These are companies that are not yet large but are preparing to become large companies in the future. These adjustments are being made.
"And how do we identify those companies? Like finding Facebook in the past, or Tesla in the past?"
We need to see that the global system's structure will be challenged and require new adjustments. First, the competition between China and America will become increasingly intense. However, what happened at the end of 2025 is that Huawei, in collaboration with the Chinese government, announced that China has its own technological path. We no longer need to rely on the West. We will create our own path. Therefore, what they announced is not a coincidence; it is a strategy for 2015, a strategy to move towards a new world around 2025, which was last year.
Then, when the time came, they announced that this year marks the entry into a new world of technology. So, we need to look at what will drive this new world. We will see that China will be driven by Smart Cities, which they have been developing for about 7-8 years, starting with what they call a "kingdom of cameras." And behind these cameras, there are underlying systems. So, let's look at who makes these cameras.
"Yes."
"Right? We see that every camera needs someone to sell it."
"Right? How to do it. I went and scouted companies."
"Yes. And took pictures. Oh, there are two companies: Hikvision and Huawei."
"And we see that these cameras have been around for over 10 years."
"Now they are releasing new cameras with up to 8K resolution."
"Yes."
"So, this means that existing cameras, which are Full HD, will need to be upgraded to 8K because the dimensions for night vision and other aspects will change, becoming clearer, right? So, we will see that if that's the case, all these cameras we see all over China will need to be replaced, and new sales will occur, right?"
"Ah, so we look at these companies that make them. And we look further into the cameras. They can identify up to 200 people, 200 cars, or 200 motorcycles in a single frame, stating their license plate numbers, ID card numbers."
"Yes."
"In real-time, in one frame. For example, if a minute has 120 frames, right? If it's Full HD, then in those 120 frames, each frame can identify 200 people. So, let's see which company makes AI."
"Mmm."
"Right? They must be making real-time AI for all of China. And we've seen that Huawei is already using this system for Smart Airports."
"Yes."
"And they are collaborating with Saudi Arabia to build smart cities. Therefore, these will lead to increased and larger sales, right? I'm giving an example of cameras."
"Yes."
"Or cars. If we talked about it, say, 5 years ago, would we have seen Chinese cars filling up Thai roads? We initially thought it wouldn't be that many, but now, wherever you look, it's all true. Chinese cars everywhere, right? And the technology is advanced, and new technologies emerge every year, right? And they use a strategy to make cars cheap."
"The reason for making cars cheap is what? Because technology is growing exponentially."
"Yes."
"Therefore, they will have people buy new cars in the next 3-4 years without worrying about the car's value. If it's cheap, it can be considered zero."
"This will allow technology to circulate continuously because new customers will be added every year from those who are the early adopters. We see the automotive industry, and within cars, how many components are there? Sensors, right? GPS, communication with the city. We see that these are linked to Smart Cities and the implementation of various city systems. So, if we understand the global system's journey, these opportunities are abundant. We are not familiar with these companies. Therefore, we say a company has been around for 70-80 years; that's the third industrial era."
"Mmm."
"But we are in the fourth industrial era, which is becoming digital and moving towards quantum."
"Yes."
"So, let's look at which companies are involved in quantum. What do quantum systems do? We will look for quantum companies, most of which are still unknown, as there are only 4-5 companies, and about 40-something startups. These are all small companies. But we will end up with AI companies. Buying OpenAI might be too expensive. Can we exit or not?"
"Is it too expensive already?"
"It's too expensive already. And what about our country? Do we have new global stocks?"
"Our country is quite difficult because they haven't transformed."
"Yes."
"I'm not talking about the government's vision, but the vision of business owners. The transformation of companies into technology companies or new industries is quite rare."
"Yes."
"This is scary. Scary in what way? Scary because China does everything from upstream to downstream, reaching our hands. If one day we don't have it, they will replace us without us realizing it. This is currently happening in many sectors. And the most affected will be retail and the automotive industry, which are being replaced without us realizing it, and we cannot find a way out of this situation. Those who can truly transform right now in Thailand must be the banking industry."
"Yes."
"Which is the most advanced. Besides that, there are the telecommunications groups, two main groups that are transforming, but it's not easy. And we see the movement of major players to establish data center industries, smart city industries, and so on. This is a trend that is very rare and very scary if China enters so rapidly."
"Yes. So, in Thailand, the groups that are likely to transform into new technologies and new global stocks are the banking and telecommunications groups."
"These two groups are leading."
"Leading. And they might have to be large ones that are ready, right?"
"I think the world today opens opportunities for both large and small. Small ones, if they can demonstrate their potential, will have the capital to support them. But in Thailand, there's one problem: companies that want to establish themselves as startups only solve small pain points."
"Yes."
"And they cannot pivot to a global scale. Therefore, new companies, we will see that it's quite difficult for them to reach tens of billions because they only capture small markets. But why can America reach large scales? Imagine when OpenAI launched ChatGPT, the download count reached 100 million worldwide, and now it's up to 700-800 million downloads worldwide, right? So, they capture a global scale and reach everyone. You just need to download the app. The world is in our hands, which is our mobile phone. Therefore, if we think in a system called global scale, there will be ready capital. But if we think about solving small pain points, the scale will be very small, and it won't be worth the investment. This is the problem I see as to why startups in our country struggle to move forward."
"Yes. So, in choosing stocks in 2026, we will not generalize."
"No, not generalize."
"And we will have to choose by individual company and by country."
"Right. Can investing in the index of those countries still be done in 2026?"
"The US side, S&P 500, or other indices that have a lot of growth potential."
"Currently, for indices, I don't want to generalize. If you buy the S&P 500, there are about 20 companies driving the index up, but there are about 480 other companies that are not driving the index up."
"They might be pulling it down, or even dragging it down. For example, if we go into new technology industries, Artificial Intelligence, etc., we can hedge against risk by buying through Dollar-Cost Averaging."
"Mmm."
"So, we don't know what will happen, so we save monthly and so on."
"But another industry, which I'll put aside for now."
"Yes."
"Is, for example, the aerospace industry that is being discussed. This industry, when companies grow, they grow in two ways: growth by capital or growth by revenue. If they grow by capital, they must expect revenue to come in, right? But in some industries, they grow by capital."
"Yes."
"But revenue doesn't follow. Therefore, be careful that one day there will be a correction because revenue cannot keep up, and no one can keep injecting capital indefinitely. So, on the US side, in which industries should new global stocks be considered, Professor?"
"It's already separated now. For example, the Artificial Intelligence or AI industry is a separate industry group that we will see from now on and will grow significantly. This year, we will enter what is called the century of humanoids. Today, we don't see humanoids in our daily lives. We only see them in clips and so on. But from now on, in the next 15 years, humanoids will enter our daily lives in one form or another."
"Mmm."
"Yes."
"To enter our lives. Therefore, industries like robotics, humanoids, etc., will be another sector that is a greenfield, which will grow. However, we must also be careful about revenue, as research costs are quite substantial."
"Ah. Yes. So, a moment ago, we talked about the new world, and there should be three leaders in the new world. Professor, which leader do you give the most weight to, number one?"
"I think currently, the competition between America and the Middle East will become increasingly intense, and it's a competition where the United States is at a disadvantage."
"Yes."
"Let me go back a bit. China and the United States are like countries that don't get along, but they cannot do without each other."
"Yes."
"They cannot do without each other because when China opened its doors, there was cheap labor, and large industries in America moved their production bases to China, right? This led to what happened in America: the relocation of bases and increased unemployment because companies wanted cheap products to sell in the United States or to reduce costs. It turned out that what has happened over time is that no one expected China to become the factory that produces everything in the world and sells it to America and the rest of the world. China ended up selling to America, and Americans couldn't produce. So, Americans had to buy Chinese goods."
"Yes."
"This made China a wealthy country from selling, contract manufacturing, and establishing its own companies in various forms, eventually building its own brands. Now, as it grew larger, from selling only a few hundred million dollars, it has grown to billions. The US dollars that China earned from sales and accumulated, they didn't know what to do with them, so they lent them to the United States by buying US bonds."
"Mmm."
"So, it's a cycle where Americans keep accumulating debt."
"Yes."
"And buy Chinese goods. After buying Chinese goods, China becomes increasingly wealthy. So, they lend to America and then buy their own goods again."
"Yes."
"So, if America doesn't buy Chinese goods, China won't lend to them."
"Yes."
"And if America doesn't buy Chinese goods, factories in China are at risk of bankruptcy."
"Yes."
"And we see this picture becoming clearer, right? It seems contradictory, but they cannot do without each other."
"Cannot do without each other."
"Yes."
"Yes."
"So, after Trump's term and Biden's term, they started a conflict with China."
"Yes."
"The result of this conflict is that during the COVID pandemic, they saw that America couldn't produce anything. If there was a lockdown, Americans would have no products of their own, right? Therefore, what America must do is bring factories back."
"It's not easy, is it?"
"What they did was beyond imagination. How to make goods in America expensive?"
"Yes."
"Expensive enough to make factories move back and be profitable. To make factories expensive, the first thing is what? To weaken their currency."
"Yes."
"Because those who lose from a weak dollar are the countries that lend to America."
"While America's debt decreases due to its weakening currency, which is different from our country. If our currency weakens, our debt increases because we borrow. But America borrows in dollars, and if the dollar weakens, they gain an advantage because others have to exchange more dollars. This is different from our country in 1997. So, when they weaken the dollar and impose high taxes, factories will start to reopen in America. But this is a long-term solution. They are looking at the next step: if China is moving fast in the future, we must contain China by all means."
"Yes."
"So, they are containing it by not sending high-level technology to China. But it turns out that the United States is the one losing. So, what does China do? China knows that if it remains tied to the United States, it will surely face disaster. Because if policies change overnight, the Belt and Road Initiative happened. And they managed to trade with countries around the world: in the Middle East, India, Africa, and South America, to find alternative markets. Therefore, China can now be independent of the United States, but the United States cannot be independent of China because China must buy US bonds. So, China has reduced its holdings of US bonds from $1.333 trillion in 2012, the highest after the subprime crisis, to about $680 billion now."
"Yes."
"This is why the dollar has weakened, and China has been buying gold and accumulating it, causing the price of gold to rise. They have expanded into countries worldwide, not on a small scale. They are building cities, smart metropolises, and are now collaborating with places like the Emirates, Dubai, Saudi Arabia, trying to integrate technology into smarter cities. Also, in some European countries like Switzerland, and they are setting up communication systems for Kenya. This allows their products to spread and sell technology to Pakistan, Iran, and so on, facilitating trade. Therefore, China can chart its own course."
"Yes."
"But America cannot move forward."
"The path is narrowing."
"The path is narrowing, and they have to incur debt themselves because factories are not built overnight. This is a major challenge that makes the United States quite difficult at this time."
"Yes. So, the future superpower may not be the United States."
"There is a risk in the financial system. So, as we discussed earlier, how will the United States find a solution? It could be an extreme case. If it's an extreme case, such as the dollar appreciating against gold to $10,000 or between that and $40,000, there are possibilities. I must say that I am not saying gold will reach $40,000, but there have been cases, and I will cite them. This is a comparison. A comparison with the time of the housing bubble. I will not give a target of $40,000. Let's agree on that first. And this is an extreme case. If Trump or the next president uses this method, or declares war and transfers all damages abroad."
"Yes."
"Similar to what Britain and France did before World War I and II, by shifting their debt to the public and selling it abroad as investments and so on."
"Yes. Looking at the world, which country is the most stressed this year? It's likely the United States."
"I would say the United States and European countries."
"Yes."
"Recently, Europe has had 2-3 interesting developments. For example, fiscal policies of individual European countries, whether France, Italy, or Spain, are starting to find no way out. Another thing seen is that some governments are starting to issue war bonds. And most recently, in late January, there were discussions to establish a War Bank by raising funds from European countries or NATO to support the war. This is like preparing for a major war. This is about what happens when they cannot find solutions to problems."
"Mmm-hmm. Yes. And what about Thailand? Professor, are you concerned about the economy?"
"Thailand lacks a true national strategist. The country used to be led by the private sector in economic matters for the past 30 years. Now, the private sector itself is confused about where to go next, as we are entirely a contract manufacturing country, and domestic consumption is not that large. We also misjudge businesses within our own country, which prevents business scale from growing, not growing like China or America. This is a problem because both the government and the private sector are not moving towards the area of new technology and new industries. New industries have the advantage of high profits or margins, like NVIDIA with a 53% margin. We don't have such industries. This is our pain point. And if we want to build a data center industry in our country, it requires two things in abundance: electricity and water. Some years we have a lot of water, some years very little. If there's too much, it's excessive; if there's too little, there's none. How will this balance the data center industry? This is a major vision issue for both the private sector and the government, with no one driving or strategizing. What's worse is that we lack an educational system to support it. China's 2015 policy includes having departments for any technology in the world taught in universities. These departments must rank in the top 5 in every key future technology field, whether it's stem cells, technology engineering, aerospace, or anything else. We see the recent results: two universities have surpassed Harvard to rank first and second, with Harvard dropping to third. But that is a strategy planned since 2015. Currently, our teaching is still using books from my time or yours, perhaps not even my generation, but the generation of my children or grandchildren who are currently studying. The books are still the same. This prevents people from seeing or creating their own future. That's why talented Thai people go to grow in America, England, or abroad."
"Mmm-hmm. Yes. So, what about the opportunities for the private sector, or the battlefield they face?"
"In the current battlefield, we will only have opportunities if a major war breaks out. If a major war occurs, it will cause problems in food production. Our country has a relatively complete food production system, and everyone can do it. This could be a short-to-medium term opportunity if there is a conflict. We see that Singapore and China have already prepared food reserves for at least 5 or 10 years. And many other countries are not yet prepared. So, this will be an opportunity because the battlefield of war will not be like in the past."
"This is what Thailand needs to prepare for when changes occur. Another very important change is that the world of technology in this era has changed, both in the US and China. What is the current situation, and how will it pave the way for future investment for investors?"
"In the United States, we need to look at new industries. This is another reason why we shouldn't invest in indices, as indices include many old-world companies. The leaders from now on will be the entry into the era of ASI, which is beyond AGI. ASI stands for Artificial Super Intelligence. So, today, we have had the opportunity to use ChatGPT, use it, use many things like this. And there are many companies like this. But know that this is not AI itself, but its infrastructure is AI. And it's not yet perfect. So, we see that this is what they call the infrastructure of the AI system that needs to be established. And another case is the design of images by AI. Sora, which creates images, was mentioned. It was said that if images can make people perform any action, like bending down to pick up a glass to drink, then that is the same algorithm as allowing robots or androids to do the same. Therefore, it's about training AI on various images. And it uses the same algorithm. If one day we see Tesla, Tesla may no longer be a car manufacturing company. Tesla may be a company with an electric car manufacturing division that is developing towards self-driving cars. On the US side, we see that America is developing quite slowly, which is why Elon Musk went to build factories in China. Because China has a system for connectivity with satellites and what they call it, to perfectly control cars and drivers. This is why he set up there in China and accelerated the AI learning process, which benefits Tesla. But what Tesla is going to do next is transfer human thoughts by brain commands, which may take some time with the Neuralink project. But what's interesting is their humanoid robot project, called the Optimus Project. The Optimus Project will be launched in mid-year, and the world may be shaken by how perfectly the Optimus Project can perform. Compared to the Optimus Project, there is Unit from China, which is a robot that works more in industrial settings. Normally, factories use robotic arms, but this will use robots and will enter our daily lives. We may see robots walking on the streets, acting as housekeepers, caregivers. Therefore, the growth opportunity for humanoids will be quite rapid from now on. And another part that will grow very rapidly is the technology of self-driving cars in stages 4 and 5. Stage 4 is sitting behind the steering wheel but not driving. Both America and China are competing in this, but China is already moving to stage 5, which is a new car model without a steering wheel. Stage 5 means no steering wheel, no driver. There are 2-3 companies that produce these, and they are startups that have already IPOed. These companies are new companies like Pony.ai and ZOK. On the Chinese side, they are listed on the Nasdaq stock market. This will be another aspect that will come during the transition. And for platforms entering ASI, let's look at the definition of ASI: Artificial Super Intelligence. It will reach a point where it is smarter than all humans on Earth combined. Therefore, humanoids and all AI will be smarter than all humans on Earth combined. If AGI is smarter than humans, but not yet all humans on Earth combined, this will think much faster. Therefore, chips and other components will need to be developed further. China and America have already started on different paths. China can move faster by developing photonic chipsets, which are not electron-based like Nvidia's, but use light, photons. They can process about 1,000 times faster than electron chipsets and are much more energy-efficient. And this is what we are entering in the early stages, and by 2030, it will be in our daily lives like ChatGPT."
"2030 is just a few years away."
"No, everything from now on will be very fast. It will be very fast, and by 2030-35, we will enter the early stages of the ASI era, the Artificial Super Intelligent era, which will significantly accelerate the delivery of goods, management platforms, office work, and various controls. It will be faster, more accurate, and collect more data. However, on the American scale, it will be smaller because American companies will think only within their own projects. But on the Chinese side, they can combine everything. We need to see this picture: Huawei is not a public company but works with the government. The Chinese central government and Huawei will act as a research center. Their nature is like a conductor, with each instrument being a different company. They can bring these companies together and direct them in the same direction. They research and work with large confirmed companies. Meanwhile, in America, it's more like everyone does their own thing. I once asked about the transformation of Citibank when I studied in America. I asked them, 'Will Citibank do this?' So, Tencent will be a super app, and its ecosystem will have about 8,000 apps within it. But America cannot do this due to legal restrictions. Therefore, Citibank can only plug into various apps. This leads to the development of the two countries going in different directions. China focuses on ecosystems, while America focuses on individual growth and joint ventures. The problem is what? For example, if the same company has two departments, it's complicated. And to schedule a meeting or collaborate, it becomes even more difficult. This is the reality for workers. For example, Elon Musk has SpaceX, and its satellite system through SpaceX. However, SpaceX does not have mobile phones. Huawei uses the Chinese government's satellites and can connect to satellites in its Mate series, from Mate 60 to Mate 80 this year. Mobile phones can connect to satellites anywhere in the world. For example, in Kenya, they don't need to install internet towers or mobile phone towers; they only use satellite connectivity. The question is, what will this mean for telecommunications companies worldwide? If one day infrastructure is no longer needed, and we only rely on satellites, will the concession model or work model remain the same? This is another perspective. And another perspective is the operating system. In America, we already have trouble choosing between Windows and Apple iOS. But from now on, we will have more trouble deciding whether to choose Harmony. If we trade with China, within two years, before a major war, the Chinese government has stated that all operating systems in the Chinese government and country must be 100% domestically produced. It is predicted that they will switch to Huawei's Harmony operating system because it is designed as an ecosystem. This will be a problem for countries like ours, whether we will use Windows or Apple's iOS, or China's Harmony, or perhaps both. This will be a major technological issue that we will face from now on."
"But this major change in the next 3-5 years is full of investment opportunities as well."
"Full of opportunities. Both in terms of investment and in acquiring companies that are not yet large. And they are very small companies ready to become large companies. For example, quantum companies. Before, the company's valuation was only around $100 million, like Wave or others. But now, the world has expanded, businesses have grown, and customers have increased, from $100 million to tens of billions. The upside will be greater and faster than buying a trillion-dollar company, where it's not easy to grow. There are many such opportunities. The second opportunity is that we can build our businesses on these new worlds even more, if we open ourselves to learning and finding these opportunities."
"What market capitalization or size of stocks or businesses should we buy to get good returns and efficiency?"
"The first challenge is: is it on the path to the future world? First, if we assume it's on the path to the future world, like we discussed, it will reach quantum. So, let's study how quantum companies operate and their business methods, because it's something new. So, when we see that quantum is becoming new, and companies are small, they are companies waiting to grow. So, it's better to prepare to invest in quantum companies or not? This is another point. Or those we just mentioned, self-driving car companies, or humanoid robot companies, like Tesla or other companies. There will be companies like this that are being added, which we haven't known before, and they are also the direction of the future world. This will be an opportunity, or we can take their ideas and open businesses in our country. This is even more important. Yes, there are opportunities for both investors and entrepreneurs in this new world. Yes, yes. And their platforms can be used worldwide. Therefore, for us to be in our country and leverage their opportunities to adapt our businesses and share opportunities is very important from now on."
"It sounds like most opportunities are in China."
"I think China is entering as an ecosystem, but America is coming in pieces. So, it depends on the suitability for each person's design, how they will design it. But if it's about companies using the most advanced technology in the world, America should be given credit. In the next 5 years, because they have attracted a lot of top talent from around the world. But for companies that are ecosystems, it's not too bad. Companies with growth potential should be attributed to China. The whole world is competing between these two sides."
"Will any side surge ahead, like a runaway leader?"
"It's hard to think about surpassing right now because China says it will forge its own path and not compete with the United States. So, America has no competitors right now. As investors, we have to seek opportunities worldwide, right, Professor?"
"Yes. And both countries have similar policies: they are both global scale. So, they consider the entire world market as their customers. That is important. Even though we face the risks of change in this new world, it is full of opportunities. We had the opportunity to talk with the Professor. Does the Professor have any additional warnings that investors and entrepreneurs should be cautious about in 2026?"
"I think this is a period, not just this year. It's an opportunity to know what crisis we are facing. If we know what it is, we will know what the opportunity is. If we understand, I'm not saying it's scary, but since it's the dynamics of the world, and we cannot change the world's destiny, it's important to understand what is happening. And we should not be like football fans, cheering and waiting for it to happen before believing. But as a strategist, imagine building a hotel. We envision the hotel on opening day. But most people see land and say it's overgrown and empty, what can be done? So, a strategist must see the hotel on its grand opening day on that empty land. Therefore, we must act as someone who can see empty land and envision a hotel on its grand opening day. That is a strategist. So, those who get only small returns with huge risks are those who buy on the grand opening day and see it as a beautiful hotel. But those who become rich are those who buy that plot of land and build a beautiful hotel. So, if we see that this is the early stage of the fourth industrial era, we look at how the fourth industrial era will grow to AGI and ASI, and how the infrastructure will change from digital to quantum. The shift from electron chips to photonic chips, how are they related? The platforms involved, from now to the future, will be different. Facebook will become the past. Why did Elon Musk dare to buy Twitter and transform it into XAI? He must have a way of thinking about how to adapt, right? Therefore, those who succeed in investing must be people who see the future, not those who see the future when it's already here and then say, 'Ah, I believe it.' Because then the price will be too expensive. So, step one is to see this. Tell yourself to see this. Step two is to learn what the crisis is and what the opportunity is within the crisis. Or we can go our own way, do something unrelated to both crisis and opportunity, and create our own opportunities. This is possible during this time. So, news is just an impact, an activity in the world. But if we understand what is happening and the dynamics of the world, we will see that opportunities are everywhere. And these opportunities are the biggest in 100 years. We won't have such opportunities often in the next 10 years."
"Yes. And what is important is building confidence and aligning our minds to go in the right direction. Does the Professor have any advice?"
"Today, there are many stimuli on social media and elsewhere. It's like hypnosis. We should take breaks from looking, let time pass, but do what we are interested in and check occasionally. But use that time to do what we need to do. It won't have much impact on the incoming stories. For example, I recommended buying and holding gold. But in the past few days, it has dropped significantly. I'm indifferent because I've been saying since the cost was below 30,000. Many people are still at a cost of 18,000. So, no matter how much it drops, it won't reach that. Do you understand? So, if it drops, we buy more. It's not a big deal. But if we look at what's happening, like the worst-case scenario, and there will always be words like 'bubble burst.' So, this bursts, that bursts, this is Black Monday, Black Tuesday. We see these often. In reality, it's good news, isn't it? Because we can't buy enough, and it has already risen so much. It drops, giving us a chance to buy again. We just need to adapt. We are not in a difficult situation, so we will see everything."
"Yes. This is the map, and it's an opportunity of a lifetime, perhaps. We must seize this golden opportunity during this time, under the circumstances of World War III, which is not happening through combat but through changes in various factors. Today, I would like to thank the Professor very much for honoring us and for painting this investment map for us today. Thank you. Thank you."