Transcription
Alright, hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review. We will talk about BTC first. We will prepare our trading week. We will see, well, the information to watch, the setups that can be triggered. We will of course talk about Ether, altcoins, the US market. We will talk about the economic announcements that are coming. And at the end, we will finish with a question that was asked to me following the questions you asked me in yesterday's video. We will discuss DAC 8 here. I think many have heard of it lately. So, I will try to give you some small tips on this. Before I start, you have until tonight midnight to take advantage of the €200 on the Crypto Investor program. This is really the best time to train yourself, prepare for what's next, prepare for the next bull market, prepare for a bear market if we enter one currently. You will have all the elements here to build your portfolio, analyze a crypto from A to Z by mastering fundamental analysis, tokenomics analysis, technical analysis, three pillars that will allow you to know which crypto to enter and when to enter. You will see my best strategies to take profits, to create a tailor-made portfolio, to succeed in your bull market but also your bear market. And the most important thing is really the bonuses. Well, bonus number 1 on protecting your cryptocurrencies, access here to the private group of investors where you can discuss strategies with other people who are also trained. The memory is 350 PowerPoint slides that you can get. Okay? With a lot of information on the different modules you will see. Free updates. In private message. My goal is to accompany you until you are 100% autonomous. So you can ask me questions. I will answer them with pleasure. You have until tonight to take advantage of the €200 offer by clicking on the first link in the description.
So, I'll start here with, well, especially the economic announcements. We have a rather busy week here. Why? Because we especially have the decision on interest rates and Jerome Powell's speech. This will really be the most important thing, it's in 3 days. 86% of the market is pricing in a rate cut, 13.8% is pricing in no rate cut. Automatically, if we want the market to breathe a little, for cryptos to experience a small rebound, it's better to have a rate cut. If we don't have a rate cut but no rate cut, knowing that 86% of the market is pricing in a rate cut, it would be rather bad for risk assets because as the majority have priced in a rate cut. So it would be a good surprise and especially we could clearly see a much more violent retracement, whether it's cryptos or the US market. So for now, statistically speaking, there's a higher chance of a cut. Now, we will really have our answer on Wednesday. And what we will need to watch is that we will already see a lot of volatility following this, depending on the rate cut or not, because the last cuts were already priced in, it was 100% certain. Each time, it was 100% sure that we would not cut rates or when there was a rate cut, it was almost 100% sure. So when it's like that, since the market has already priced it in, has already, when I say priced it in, what does that mean? It means it has already registered it in the prices. There is no surprise, there is a bit of classic volatility. It remains a rather watched announcement but not huge volatility. Here, we already know that on Wednesday at 8 PM, things will move. So, things will move, especially, I'm not even talking about if we don't have a rate cut, if we have a rate cut, it will still move because 14% of the market is not pricing in any rate cut. And what we will need to watch next is Powell's speech. He will speak at 8:30 PM and will he be reassuring or not for the future? I think he will continue to give us the Powell speech as he always has. That is to say, we need more data, we need more figures. So, the Fed is currently following the data, it's not getting too involved in its statements, which I can also understand, especially since it was lacking data with the shutdown. So we will see all of that and similarly after January 28th, well, we will also see if we have another rate cut or not at all.
So, I'll start here with BTC. We are still in this sideways phase. If I look at the weekly chart, we are stuck between two boundaries. We are ping-ponging between this support zone, which is around $85,500-$86,000, and this upper extremity of $92,500. So we see here that we simply have a phase of hesitation. We have a buying reaction, a selling reaction, and well, the weekly close, we are going to close around the same time we opened, and as I said, we are in a phase of hesitation. For now, it's a range, okay? It's an upper boundary at this level, a lower boundary at this level, a sort of compression. Okay. We are consolidating rather in the middle of the range over the weekend, the last few hours on Saturday and Sunday, which is not surprising. It's something we had seen together, that we had a good chance of filling this gap in the volume profile. You see, if I put it like this, here, there is a big imbalance at this level. We see it clearly here, and we see that we have filled it. This doesn't surprise me. Already here, we had a big pump, a good imbalance zone. We didn't even re-fill it. Well, we filled it but we didn't have volume within it. Again here, it was quite logical that for the weekend volatility, well, we would spend time in this phase of imbalance. So for now, we are sideways. We still have buyers showing up in the middle of the range. That's rather good with a low wick here. We could have a Sunday evening pump. It's quite classic, the famous Sunday evening pumps to then dump on Monday. We'll see if it happens like that. But well, keep in mind that often on Sunday evening, for whatever reason, the market pushes up a bit. Now, it's not the pump of the century either, but often we'll go for 1-2%. It will depend on the volatility, but what we need to watch is really the movement on Monday and be careful with the positions you build at the beginning of the week because on Wednesday, as I said, we can expect volatility. As usual, I will watch the weekly pivot points. Once again, an example where, well, it did its job because it was the top at $94,000. This is a level we determined together with good confluence. And well, as soon as the weekly closes, we will have new weekly pivot points. And like every beginning of the week, it's the first thing I look at, I say "Okay, where are my weekly pivot points?" And these are always levels that I watch that can act as support or resistance. So we will see where they are located. Otherwise, here, if I put moving averages, the 1-hour is flat given the low volatility, which is not surprising. The 15-minute is also flat, and the 4-hour is still trending downwards. So no bottom is drawn for now. We could have a double bottom here, a W. In a W, we see a first low, a second low, a third low, and then we really go above this level and manage to establish ourselves above $94,000. We have a daily close, a good daily close, and we accept to be above 94. For me, we could have a bullish rally to reach 99 and why not 106. However, we will still have quite a few probabilities if we go back to these two levels. Either to be rejected here to continue downwards, or to be rejected here again to continue downwards. For me, that's the most probable thing. Well, we'll have to watch all of that, of course. It wouldn't surprise me to have a rebound because we shouldn't forget that on BTC, we had a -35%. Otherwise, we will have big rebounds. Well, we had a small one at this level of 10%. That's really a very small one, let's say a baby rebound. This one is very small, 7%. Okay, here we have a more significant one, but it's normal in a daily, weekly downtrend to have rebounds. It's like during this downward phase, you see, we had a very small rebound. Okay, here we had a much more significant one. So it's completely normal. A rebound doesn't mean it's gone "to the moon." Here, for me, to say "okay, it's possible it's started again" for BTC. For me, I see two scenarios. Either we form a W structure similar to what we did here. Now, we trapped people but we form a structure, I would have the same reasoning because that's how patterns work, but it's never 100% certain. In any case, if we have a W pattern, I would tell you, well yes, we have a chance of having formed a bottom and the objective is to reach the top. But it's not 100% certain. That's why we have invalidations because if we start to re-enter the trend line, okay, break the lows here, well, it will clearly be to go lower. So several reasons. Either we have, as I said, a W structure, or we re-enter $106,000. Because honestly, re-entering $106,000 would show us that we have good buying pressure and it's a major pivot. For me, in this large phase, we could enter a larger sideways phase, it's possible. Well, in this large sideways phase, the major level is $106,000. So if we don't go back above it, it's difficult to say that we will find a bullish moment. Why? Because well, it's a bit the trend line of this range. It's a key level that long acted as resistance and that we broke. It's a level that then acted as support. So for me, it's a level that I will watch. And otherwise, if we rebound and are rejected, well, I still have levels that interest me. And I told you, the best thing is to be comfortable and say "if it dumps, I'm happy because I have something to position myself with. If it pumps, I'm also happy because I'm positioned and I can continue the trend and I will have cash simply to position myself." So that's it for BTC. I will be quite cautious at the beginning of this week, especially with Powell's speech and the decision on rates. Be careful of the liquidity that will be created, generally even the day before and on Wednesday during the day. Especially on Wednesday during the day, we won't have high volatility because well, investors, traders are waiting for the speech to position themselves. It's not surprising, but we'll have time to talk about it again by then. In any case, the market here is much more complicated to analyze. Decision-making is much harder because for me, who trades trends, well, I have a flat 1-hour, a flat 15-minute. So I would like it to either pump upwards or downwards, but to find, you see, this kind of phase, a downward or upward phase, it doesn't matter, I can invert the chart, it's the same. But here, for range trading, which is not really my specialty, I can trade the range but I clearly prefer trading the trend. I am not in the best market conditions.
Now, let's talk about Ether. Well, Ether is, here, a bit similar in the sense that it's a bit similar but still better than BTC. Why? Because on Ether, we haven't specifically re-entered the trend line. Well, we re-entered it partially, but I told you, I had two levels I was watching on Ether, it's this trend line and the low of the impulsive candle. Now yes, we went to make lows at the wick level, but we didn't close below this level. For me, you should know, my stop losses are different when I do short-term trading than medium and long-term. For really intraday trading, I put a fixed stop loss. Okay, I put a really fixed stop loss. This means that the market will wick, hop, I'm out. When I do swing trading or a bit more long-term trading, which is the case here, I have invalidations on closing because I'm more comfortable like that. This type of wick doesn't bother me, and especially I usually enter in spot. I don't use leverage. It depends, I can use leverage but it's rare in general. I enter much more in spot. Why? Because since I have a larger gap between my entry price and my stop loss, well, I don't need to have such a large position size. And be careful how you use leverage, I'm coming back to this because some will tell me "Wait, I don't understand why you don't use leverage, is leverage mandatory?" No, in the calculation of your position sizes, leverage is not mandatory. I invite you to watch this video. We will find it. Go into playlists for those who have never watched. You go into playlists, you have courses, they are masterclasses, and I think the video is currently in masterclasses. You go here and here's how 95% of traders don't know how to use leverage. It's a 20-minute video. For you who have just started trading or have been trading for a while but don't really know how to use leverage well. Here I tell you unfiltered how to use leverage. And there's a good chance that if you trade daily, you're wrong in how you use leverage. And yes, on trades, we can take positions in spot. Why? Because for some it might seem crazy, but in the calculation of a position size, leverage is not involved. Well, in any case, here on Ether, as I said, it's rather good. We have partially filled this imbalance zone. It would be good to go back above the, yes, $3100, that would be rather good. And then, we could be in this phase of, well, lower lows, higher lows, and attack higher levels. We identified them together. We have an intermediate level around $3400, approximately this zone. And then, we have the $3800 level and after that, a large block around $4000. So similarly on Ether, we can have a rebound either at this level to have a retracement, or higher to have a retracement. I can't anticipate where we will form a top. We will just have to watch how the market reacts, and I will do the same for Ether, which is to watch, okay, my weekly pivot points, and well, where will they be located? And similarly, you see, these are interesting levels. We perfectly form a bottom on them. We consolidated, consolidated on them as well. You see, weekly pivot points perfectly acted as support at this level. Yes, support. These are always levels that I like to use. It's math, you don't need to rack your brain to draw things, and you just need to do the work once a week for the weekly pivot points and simply watch where they are. So as soon as the weekly closes, it's the same, something I will watch on Ethereum. So that's it on this side, regarding altcoins, similarly, I always like to do this work of saying "Okay, which altcoins are standing out? Which are the best altcoins of the week? Which ones have momentum that is decoupling from others?" And you see, well, if we look at the week, there's a small difference between Bitcoin Cash, Chainlink, Sui, okay, and Uni and Apt. Similarly, Ave stands out compared to Monero. And this allows me to already have a small guideline, to say "Okay, well, this week, if you want to continue the trend, if you want to see, if you want to position yourself on altcoins, you already know which ones you will look at, and we can compare, we can do the work and say 'Okay, well, Apt, but let's see if this makes me want to go long?'" Moreover, this is something we looked at together, I told you, from the moment we lose this level, it's ugly. We will surely go down. Is this a chart that makes me want to go long? Absolutely not. This, I will take the chart of Bidon, it will be clearer. Here! Because there isn't enough liquidity, I was on Coinbase, this is a chart that makes me want to go short. So after, it depends if you are in a shorting mindset, this is the best altcoin. Here you are in a very good configuration to go short in the direction of the trend, which is bearish here. And that's why doing this work and saying "Okay, which altcoin is strong, which altcoin stands out?" Well, Apt, we have a concrete example. However, if I want to look for longs, I would rather look at, for example, Bitcoin Cash. It's already more interesting. You see the 15-minute above the 1-hour, the 1-hour above the 4-hour. Ah, it's rather, it's rather correct. You will look at Chainlink. Chainlink is, it's perhaps similar. Ah, it's less impressive. You see, after, you have to zoom out. It's not because it was good for one week that it wasn't for others. Here, compression phase, I'm a bit less of a fan. We are in the 4-hour, it's less impressive. Bitcoin Cash is much more interesting. We can also look at Sui. It's a bit similar. So Bitcoin Cash is a bit the altcoin that stands out. We can say "Okay, well, it's not bad for continuing the trend." We zoom out. We see how we are. Well, we are approaching this resistance zone. So be careful, we are still at a key level, but in any case, on the 1-hour, 4-hour, yes, it's not bad. Pullbacks are bought, we see it clearly. Okay, at this level. And similarly, to trade this trend, I say it's rather good. It's, you see, we have a concrete example where I say "well, if Powell is reassuring, and altcoins are pumping, then choosing Bitcoin Cash to continue the trend will please me much more than APT." You shouldn't start saying "Yes, APT has fallen so much, it has dropped so much that that's it, I'm going to position myself on it." No, we position ourselves on the strong ones, and well, the weak ones, we set them aside or we short them. And here, we have AVE and MNT which might also be good. Perhaps because I'm checking the chart. Yes, it's AVE, it could be good if we go back above $200. Psychological barrier, we go back above the 4-hour, above the 1-hour, above the 15-minute. Yes, that would be good. We could validate a small bottom. The chart looks a bit like Ether's though, with this W structure. Here, we would really need to confirm this peak, and we could see a retracement, come back at least, yes, retest this zone of $250, it's possible. Here, we have a whole distribution phase, we see a sort of Wyckoff here, and we have a major key level around $250. And I said, what was it? It was MNT. We can also look at what else we have. MNT. So yes, we are at resistance. Now, it's complicated because, yes, it's pumping. Well, I think we have rather flat moving averages. I didn't want to put the pivot points but we see it perfectly. Well, we see it, it's our week, it's a range. The upper extremity is a weekly pivot point. The middle of the range is a weekly pivot point. And the bottom of the range is also a weekly pivot point. Well, I'm putting tunnels here to see. We are above the 1-hour, above the 4-hour, but we are above the 1-hour, above the 15-minute, we have the 4-hour which is above. Really, the altcoin that stands out is, well, honestly, Bitcoin Cash. It's, it's rather good. So, do this work. You see, with tools like this, it doesn't mean you don't have to check, of course, but it allows you to filter already. I know in advance that APT and Uni will not interest me. In any case, there's a good chance. Unless I'm shorting, of course. That depends on you. And here, when I look against BTC, you see, Atom is ugly, APT is very ugly. Avax is not great, we'll analyze it just after. Sui is still okay, Link is okay. BNB is rather good. Here there's a small bullish trend, but well, the only cryptos that stand out are AVE. Ether is still okay, but many cryptos are being outperformed by BTC. Here we have Hype correcting quite a bit, here it's going back to look for rather low levels. I don't have any orders executed yet because I have orders a bit lower. Let's say $25, but we see that well, Hype for a long time, it was strong. Well, now it's experiencing a slightly more fragile phase. Okay. But at the same time, when we look at BTC from the highest point to the lowest point, it took -35% to -40%. For Hype, we are only at -50%. If we compare to other altcoins, many are at -70% to -80%. Hype has the same performance as Ether. You have to take that into account. So, well, we are going back to the first interesting levels on Hyper Liquid. I'll finish with the US market. The US market, in any case, I'll analyze the S&P 500, which is not far from making an ATH as long as we are above 6008. For me, if 6008 is the clear pivot. If we go back below 6008, well, it will be bad, and we will have a good chance of going back to the lower extremity around 6006. But as long as we are above 6008, for me, here, we are in a context where we can go for the top. Moreover, we see that we have gone back above the 15-minute, above the 1-hour, above the 4-hour. We see it at this level. So, no, for me the pattern is rather correct. Now, what we need to watch is clearly Powell's speech. For me, if we have something rather encouraging with a rate cut, well, we will have a good chance of reaching the ATH. If, on the other hand, it's not reassuring, we don't have a rate cut, we could see the S&P 500 fall sharply. Especially, let's remember, we are still at high levels and we have had very few retracements on the S&P 500. So for now, I am bullish because everything shows me that well, I have all the reasons to be bullish. However, if we start to break the ATH, we need to see how the break happens. We really need a concrete break, not just a small liquidity grab and re-entry, otherwise it would be bad. And well, the next support level, the major support level, will be 6008 here, but we will especially watch what Powell says and the decision on rates.
I'll finish with today's question, for which I'd also like your opinion because it's a bit, well, it's not new, but many are talking about it right now. Important question Nico, what to do to avoid DAC 8 as much as possible, please? When and how, plus your magic tips? So, DAC 8 is a French or European law, I'm not sure, I won't go into all the legal lawyer terms etc., but let's put it very simply. Basically, DAC 8, it's, before, how did it work? Before, the tax authorities didn't have all your crypto transactions, the amounts in your wallets, etc., they didn't have them. They could make a request, meaning they would contact Binance, they would say "Here, I have someone who, well, I don't know how it's triggered, but I don't work in that field." But basically, they could make a request to Binance. That is to say, there is Binance. Okay, there is the tax authority. The tax authority has no information from Binance, unless they request it. From January 1, 2026, what they want to implement, and what will be implemented, all PSAN platforms, so simply digital asset service providers. So all platforms registered in France and Europe will be obliged to permanently transfer their data to the tax authorities. So the tax authorities don't make the request, it's Binance, Coinbase, Bitpanda, okay, all SAN platforms will transfer their data. In the data, there will be classic information like name, first name, etc. There will be your phone number, there will be your address, personal address. Okay? There will be all the transactions you have made, whether they are incoming or outgoing transactions, the amount in your wallets, etc. In other words, a lot of information. I find what they are doing quite peculiar. It's very dangerous. Why? Because it's not a question of, yes, the tax authorities, it's a question of money laundering, it's a question, they justify it like that, yes. I have no problem with that. I'm not here to launder my money, etc. So I'm not scared about that. But what scares me is, given how quickly databases are hacked. Now, when we look at recent databases, the CPAM was hacked, France Travail was hacked, everyone, all databases are hacked constantly. So the question is not if they will be hacked, but when. And I'm sorry, but the information here, that is to say, putting together first name and last name, okay, but putting a phone number or an address with transactions and wallet amounts, given the security in France, it's very dangerous, you have to say it, it's very dangerous. So, what to do to avoid it as much as possible? The simplest answer is to leave France. That's the simplest answer. However, we'll go a bit beyond that compared to many who give this answer. It only concerns platforms registered in France. So you have to make a list. But off the top of my head, as I said, Binance, Coinbase, Exborg, etc., etc. If you close them before January 1st, you are not concerned. The tax authorities can still request information for the period before January 1, 2026, but it will not be transferred automatically. So the best advice is to close all your PSAN platforms, okay? And proceed in two ways: cold wallets like Ledger, and then go to decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid to trade, to invest, or go through CEXs, so centralized exchanges, but which are outside of Europe and which are, let's say, on a blacklist. But be careful, blacklist can sound scary, but they are on a blacklist, I believe Bitget, you have to check, they might be on a blacklist too. It's a good exchange, okay? Now, it's true, it doesn't have the reputation of Binance, it doesn't have the security of Binance, but the best thing to do is cold storage for the long term, as I said. So, for your staking, for cryptos you will hold for months or even years, and then centralized exchanges with potentially MEXC for short-term trading, but you can even trade on Hyperliquid. Then, there are alternative platforms like Pèlerin, I haven't really looked into it, I've never tackled it. I think it's Mr. Pèlerin or something like that. It's a platform in Switzerland. Well, Mr. Pèlerin, buy, sell, exchange crypto regulated in Switzerland. You don't even need to do KYC. Okay? Yes, similarly, be careful, if you start doing KYC here and there, there might be a link. I haven't researched it, but well, it wouldn't be surprising if the tax authorities also collect all this information. I'm curious to have your opinion. Perhaps some people have researched this topic more than me. What is certain is that I don't like how it's evolving at all. It's very dangerous because one day they will be hacked, given the security in France, looking at the various kidnappings that have occurred, generally it's people who are quite well-known, who have shown their faces, who have been to seminars, things like that. So generally, you who are behind your screens, you are not concerned. Unless you have attended seminars, you have shown your face here and there. Well, that's different. But the majority, you won't be concerned. However, here, you will be concerned because if there's a data leak, a database, it's very simple, for those who have never researched it, it's a text file. The person receives a text file, there are tens and tens of thousands of lines and lots of information, and they will have information. There will be, I don't know, David with a last name, 06 50, etc. There will be the address, here, 75, I don't know how much, etc. Then there will be the wallet amount with dates, etc. Wallet, there will be, I don't know, 100k, transactions, and well, it's very dangerous. So what they are doing now is very dangerous. It's in line with what France is doing. It doesn't surprise me. And no, in fact, it doesn't surprise me. It's nonsense, but it doesn't surprise me. We can't do much about it except take measures, which will be to cut off these platforms. It's a shame, it's the best platform for me, but I myself will close it to avoid all this. And switch to, well, it's already the case for me, I already use cold wallets, so I have no problem with that, but to use even more cold wallets, even more decentralized exchanges, and instead of trading on, well, platforms that are a bit more regulated in France, I will go to MEXC, I will go to these types of platforms. Well, we still have a little time. Don't try to send a message on December 30th to close your Binance account. It takes some time. I've already closed accounts, it takes a few days, especially Binance, it might be a bit complicated since I've never closed a PSAN account. Well, I've closed them, but they weren't PSAN at the time. So it might be a bit complicated. So in any case, I'm curious to have your opinion in the comments. Debate, the more information we have, the better. Some people can add certain elements, don't hesitate. That's how we can have more information and make better decisions. In any case, I'm very curious to have your opinion on this. I wish you a very good evening. Don't hesitate, as I said, to join the Crypto Investor program for those who want to train themselves. And I'll see you tomorrow for another video.